Gawadar to become a: Viable and Vibrant, Transit and Transshipment Port, and Excellent

Recreational City and a Bustling Commercial Center.

To manage a planned growth of the city with an effective road access network,
environmental and investors friendly process and supportive social service facilities.

Gawadar
Gawadar is located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, on the Arabian Sea. It is
strategically located between three increasingly important regions: the oil-rich Middle East,
heavily populated South Asia and the economically emerging and resource-laden region of
Central Asia. Gawadar Port became operational in 2008, with the first ship to dock
bringing 52000 tonnes of wheat from Canada. Minister of Ports and Shipping Sardar Nabil
Ahmed Khan Gabol officially inaugurated the port on 21 December 2008. China has
acknowledged that Gwadar’s strategic value is no less than that of the Karakoram
Highway, In addition to Gawadar serving as a potential Chinese naval anchor, Beijing is
also interested in turning it into an energy-transport hub by building an oil pipeline from
Gawadar into Chinese-ruled Xinjiang. The planned pipeline will carry crude oil sourced
from Arab and African states. Such transport by pipeline will cut freight costs and also help
insulate the Chinese imports from interdiction by hostile naval forces in case of any major
war.

Commercially, it is hoped that the Gawadar Port would generate billions of dollars in
revenues and create at least two million jobs. In 2007, the government of Pakistan handed
over port operations to PSA Singapore for 25 years, and gave it the status of a Tax Free
Port for the following 40 years. The main investors in the project are Pakistani Government
and People's Republic of China.

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 History
The region remained on the sidelines of history for a millennium, until the Arab-Muslim
army of Muhammad bin Qasim captured the town of Gawadar in 711 CE and over the
intervening amount of time the area was contested by various powers, including the
Mughals and the Safavids . The Portuguese captured, sacked and burnt Gawadar in 1581,
and this was then followed by almost two centuries of local rule by the various Balochi
tribes. The city was visited by Ottoman Admiral Sidi Ali Reis in 1550s. According to him,
the inhabitants of Gawadar were Baloch and their chief was Malik Jelaleddin, son of Malik
Dinar. In 1783, the Khan of Kalat granted authority over Gawadar to Taimur Sultan, the
defeated ruler of Muscat. When the sultan retook Muscat, he was to continue his rule in
Gawadar by appointing a governor.

Until 1958 Gawadar was part of Oman but was transferred to Pakistan on 8 September,
1958. It was integrated within the Balochistan on 1 July, 1977 and became a full sub-
division of the Gawadar District. It was then made part of the Balochistan province. In
2002, the Gawadar Port project was begun in the town. The government of Pakistan wants
to develop the entire area in order to reduce its dependence in shipping on the port of
Karachi. By the end of 2004 the first phase had been completed.

Historical Info
Located at the entrance of the Persian Gulf and about 460 kms from Karachi, Gawadar has
had immense Geostrategic significance on many accounts. The continued unstable regional
environment in the Persian Gulf in particular as a result of the Iran/Iraq war, the Gulf war
and the emergence of the new Central Asian States has added to this importance.
Considering the Geo-economic imperative of the regional changes, the ADB’s Ports Master
Plan studies considered an alternate to the Persian Gulf Ports to capture the transit trade of
the Central Asian Republic (CAR) as well as the trans-shipment trade of the region. Both
Karachi and PQA were considered for such development but were found unattractive to
major shipping lines due to the remoteness from the main shipping routes, the limitations of
draft for mother ships and large bulk oil carriers and the comparative long turn around
times. The ADB studies, however considered Gawadar to have the most advantageous
location for such an alternative port in the region, which could handle mother ships and
large oil tankers in due course. Keeping that aspect in view as well as the inherent strategic
and economic benefits that Gawadar Port offered, the transport plan of the 8th Five Year
Plan (1993-94) of Pakistan included the development of Gawadar Port as an essential
element of its aims and objectives. Technical and financial feasibilities therefore were under
taken resulting in decisions for the development of Gawadar Port by the Govt. of Pakistan.
The Project started on 22 March 2002, is on fast track and completed in schedule time i.e.
March 2005. In fact it would surprise many that with initiative and calculated risk, we have
received merchant ships since Jan 2003 and have been able to off load hundreds of tones of
cargo imported for the Project, thus saving precious time and money which otherwise is
required for transportation of the same cargo by road from Karachi/PQA to Gawadar.

Administration

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Being district headquarters, the town of Gawadar is the chief city of Gawadar Tehsil, the
tehsil is administratively subdivided into five Union councils, three of which form Gawadar
city, and these are:

• Central Gawadar
• Gawadar Southern
• Gawadar Northern

Culture
Gwadar's location and history have given it unique cultures. The Arabic influence upon
Gawadar is strong as a consequence of the Omani era. The area also has a remarkable
religious diversity, being home to not only Sunni and Zikri Muslims, but also to groups of
Christians, Hindus, Parsis, and various minorities such as the Ahmadies.

Transport
In 1993, Pakistan started feasibility studies for the development of a major deepwater
seaport at Gawadar. The port project commenced on 22 March 2002 with the first phase
completed in December 2005.

The construction of the port has spurred other major infrastructure projects in the area.
This includes the 700 km Makran Coastal Highway which is now complete. The road links
Karachi with several ports along the coast including Ormara, Pasni, and Gawadar and will
be extended to the Iranian border in the future. The highway has reduced travel time to
Karachi from 48 hours to only 7 hours. Other road projects include the Gwadar-Quetta-
Chaman road which is due for completion in 2006 and a road link to the town of Khuzdar
in eastern Balochistan. There are also plans for a terminal for passenger ships.

The Civil Aviation Authority of Pakistan has earmarked 3000 acres of land for Gawadar
International Airport which will be built 26 km away to the northeast of the existing airport
towards Pasni. The new airport will be given international status.

Physical Features / Topography

The coastline of Gawadar District extends in an east-west direction and it is almost entirely
desert. The elevation of Makran coast range is upto about 1000 meters above the sea level.

In Gawadar District, soil is of two types: alluvial soil and litho sols and rigosols. The Valley
of Dasht River in the western part of the district and the Kulanch valley in the north consist
of alluvial soil. The mountainous area of the district is covered with litho sols and rigosols.
Limestone, shale and sandstone are the main rocks involved in the formation of this area.

3
Rivers and Streams
The important rivers and streams in the district include Shadi Kaur, Swar and Dasth River
with its tributaries Nilag and Daddeh.

Climate
The climate of Gawadar, elevated at 0-300 meters above sea level, is drying arid hot. It is
placed in “warm summer and mild winter” temperature region. The oceanic influence
keeps the temperature lower than that in the interior in summer and higher in winter. The
uniformity of temperature is a unique characteristic of the coastal region in Balochistan.

Geopolitical importance
The Gawadar deep-sea port emerges as a place of great strategic value, enhancing
Pakistan's importance in the whole region, extending from the Persian Gulf through the
Indian Ocean to Southeast Asia and the Far East.

Gawadar is located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, close to the important Straits of
Hormuz, through which more than 13 million bpd of oil passes. It is strategically located
between three increasingly important regions of the world: the oil-rich Middle East, heavily
populated South Asia and the economically emerging and resource-rich Central Asia.

The construction of the Gawadar deep-sea port is just one component of a larger
development plan which includes building a network of roads connecting Gawadar with the
rest of Pakistan, such as the 650 km Coastal Highway to Karachi and 188 km Gwadar-
Turbat road. This network of roads connects with China through the Indus Highway.
Pakistan, China, Kazakhistan, Kyrgizstan and Uzbekistan are developing extensive road
and rail links from Central Asia and the Chinese province of Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea
coast.

China is going to be the beneficiary of Gwadar's most accessible international trade routes
to the Central Asian republics and Xinjiang. By extending its East-West Railway from the
Chinese border city of Kashi to Peshawar in Pakistan's northwest, Beijing can receive cargo
to and from Gawadar along the shortest route, from Karachi to Peshawar. The rail network
could also be used to supply oil from the Persian Gulf to Xinjiang. Pakistan's internal rail
network can also provide China with rail access to Iran.

Geo-Political Importance Of Gawadar

Dubai is the hub of business not only for Gulf but also for rest of the world including
Europe, United States, Africa, China and Central Asian States. The gulf region is facing
many political problems at the moment and huge disturbances are expected in the coming
years. In such a scenario, a substitute of Dubai is essential to be located before the crisis hits

4
the finances of millions. The substitute shall be a nearest point probably, to ensure
continuous supply line of oil from Gulf to the outer world. Fortunately, Gawadar proves to
be the nearest and infact more cost-effective substitute of Dubai, from many aspects.

China is emerging as a super economic power of the world in the recent years. Despite
occupying a huge area of world's land, it doesn't have any port of hot waters, which can be
used the whole year. The distance of Chinese industrial approach to the Shinghai port is
approximately 16000 km and the sea travel of 2-3 months is additional. This costs them a lot
in the form of taxes and duties as well. As compared to this, Gawadar port is only on a
distance of 2500 km from China and the port is working for the whole year because of the
hot waters here. Therefore, the interest of China in the development of Gawadar port is
infact in the interest of Chinese economy.

The central Asian states, after the independence from USSR, are trying to develop their
economies. These states are land locked and Karachi was expected to provide them the
services through Afghanistan. For the purpose, a highway from Peshawar to Karachi was
constructed but due to Afghan crisis, this line couldn't be established. The Afghan situation
is till not clear, so, Gawadar being near to Iranian border will provide port facilities to
Central Asia as well.

Geo-Economic Importance of Gawadar

With a population of 160000, the Gawadar Town is now set to become a hub of shipping,
commercial and industrial activities. Pakistan and China had signed a comprehensive
agreement on March 16, 2002 at Beijing undertaking the task of construction of Gawadar
deep seaport of universal standards. The work on the first phase of this mega project, which
is being constructed by Chinese Harbor Engineering Company, is now at full swing. The
project is bound to be a vital landmark in the economic development of the region. The port
comes as a much-needed national requirement in the wake of the rise in cargo traffic at
Keamari and Bin Qasim, which are operating at full capacity. It is expected that Pakistan's
maritime traffic would rise by three folds by 2010. With the construction of a third port, it
is estimated that Pakistan will not only be able to meet its own requirements of the future
but also offer its port facilities to the neighboring countries.

Gawadar is now destined to be the most important upcoming coastal town located on the
inter junction of the three most strategically and economically important regions of the
world that are oil rich Middle East, South Asia where one- fifth of world population lives
and the Central Asian Republics endowed with mineral wealth and an educated and highly
skilled and disciplined workforce.

Benefits
besides the Geostrategic importance mentioned earlier, some of the evident economic
benefits of the development of Gawadar Port are:

Capitalize on opportunities for trade with landlocked Central Asian States and
Afghanistan.
Promote trade and transport with Gulf States.
Trans-shipment essentially of containerized cargo.
Unlock the development potential of hinterland.
Diversion of influx of human resources from up country to Gawadar instead of
Karachi.

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 Socio economic uplift of the province of Balochistan.
Establishment of shipping related industries.
Oil storage, refinery and petrochemicals
Export Processing and Industrial Zones
Reduce congestion & dependency on existing Ports Complex at Karachi/PQA.
Serve as an alternate port to handle Pakistani trade in case of blockade of existing
ports.
Will become a Regional Hub for major trade and commercial activities.

Chronology of Gawadar Port:

1964: Gawadar identified as a port site in Pakistan

1993: Feasibility Studies started by Pakistan for a deep seaport at Gawadar.

May 2001: Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji under-writes the Gawadar Port Project on his visit
to Pakistan

March 22, 2002: Chinese vice Premier Wu Bangguo laid the foundation of Gawadar Port.

May 3, 2004: Three Chinese engineers are killed and 11 others injured in an attack while
traveling to Gawadar.

November 2004: A Chinese cargo vessel carrying port building equipment successfully
berthed at Gawadar port.

March 2005: Phase I of Gawadar Port project completed and the port inaugurated by the
Chinese Premier.

March 2008: First ship anchors at the Gawadar port, bringing 52000 tonnes of Wheat from
Canada

Scope of Gawadar Port Project:

Phase I: Us $ 248 million. Status: 100% Complete

3 Multipurpose Berths

Length of Berths 602m

4.5 Km long Approach Channel Dredged to 11.5m-12.5m.

Turning Basin 450m dia.

One 100m Service Berth.

Related port infrastructure and port handling equipment & Pilot Boat, Tugs, Survey Vessel
etc.

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Phase II: US $ 932 million: Work Progressing on building 9 additional berths, which will
be:

4 Container Berths.

1 Bulk Cargo Terminal (to handle 100,000 DWT ships).

1 Grain Terminal.

1 Ro-Ro Terminal.

2 Oil Terminals to handle 200,000 DWT ships.

Economic forecasts
The government declared Gawadar port a "Special Economic Zone" in the budget, 2003-
2004. All banks will open their branches, five star hotels has already been be built and
are operational, offshore banking will be started, factories, warehouses and storage
will be set up, the tourism industry will be promoted in the area, an export processing
zone will be set up, making Pakistan a very attractive place for direct foreign
investment, and Gawadar port a regional hub of trade and investment activities.

Investment Opportunities
The initial phase of the Port Project has been completed in 2005. As this project is of
immense national importance, which is also designed particularly to benefit the local people
of the area such as job opportunities, improved social services delivery, venues for business
and trade etc.

Investors from all parts of the country and abroad are warmly welcomed. The people of
Makran, Gawadar and other adjoining districts are particularly encouraged to invest and
avail the benefits from the project.

Major Projects for Private Investors

◊ Establishment of Shipping Agencies

◊ Goods Transportation Services
◊ Proposal for starting ferry services between Gawadar, Karachi and Gulf
States

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 ◊ Large scale residential schemes, all sorts of industrial projects and big hotels
◊ Establishment of freezing and packing facilities for the fish industries
◊ Wireless Cab System can be established
◊ Establishment of large private schools and hospitals
◊ Investment in Water Desalination Plants
◊ Electric Power Generation
◊ Oil terminals
◊ Ware-housing/ Container Yards
◊ Export Oriented Industries

Medium Size Projects for Private Investors

◊ Establishment of restaurant, play lands, boat services and water sports etc.
◊ Establishment of printing press & newspaper industry
◊ Superstores, Markets, Tourism Industries & small level fish processing units
◊ As most of the people of Makran area are serving in military & police of the Middle
East Countries on retirement can be hired by the private security agencies
◊ According to the availability of the fresh water in the adjoining areas of Gawadar
District, business such as Poultry, Dairy, Fruit & Vegetable cultivation could be
established
◊ Trawler/ truck Companies can be established
◊ Private houses could be hired by private companies for office accommodation and
guest houses
◊ Various agencies of construction material, medicines and food items could be
established
◊ Investment in energy sector Particularly renewable energy, LPG plants etc.
◊ Small ware housings.

Small Scale Projects

◊ Small Shops, restaurants, Coffee & Ice cream shops and individual cab
services
◊ Law firms & Chambers
◊ Private Medical Clinics
◊ Architects/ Town Planners

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 ◊ Business of Contractors
◊ Fish Meal Factory
◊ Avenues for Fish & Shrimp farming along the coast

Opening Date
The first ship anchored in the Gawadar port on March 15, 2008. The first ship was
Canadian ship carrying wheat. It was the largest ship to anchor in Pakistan.

Port Operations
Port of Singapore was scheduled to take over management of Gawadar Port by the end of
January 2007. Port of Singapore was the highest bidder for the Gawadar port after DP
World backed out of the bidding process. Originally, the chairman of Dubai Ports World,
Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, who met Pakistani president General Pervez Musharraf on
May 5 2006, expressed a strong hope for management of facilities at the strategic Gawadar
deep sea port and development of infrastructure in the southern port city in Pakistan. But
a decision was taken not to bid, after India’s National Security Council voiced concerns
about DP World’s ventures in India, alongside its plans in Pakistan, and Sultan Ahmed bin
Sulayem assured the Indians their pull-out was well considered and India need not have any
security concerns. The port will now be in competition with that of Dubai in the United
Arab Emirates.

Dimension One: Pakistan’s Strategic Interests

(1) Gawadar is located only 180 nautical miles from the Strait of Hormuz through which
40% of World’s Oil passes. Gawadar could thus emerge as the key shipping hub in the area
providing mass trade to central asian republics as well as across Pakistan and China. A
road from Gawadar to Saindak is completed. Saindak is already connected to the RCD
Highway (N35) and through Quetta-Chaman it provides the shortest route for trade with
Central Asian Republics.

(2) Pakistan also needed a deep sea port away from Karachi so that in times of hostilities
Pakistan Navy doesn’t get blockaded. With all the navy ships concentrated at Karachi port,
a blockade of Pakistan had been quite easy in the past. With Jinnah Naval Base at Ormara
and Gawadar port, PN should be able to spread out its assets. For reference, Gawadar port
is 450 km further away from Indian Border than Karachi Port.

9
(3) Gawadar port will directly and indirectly bring lots of wealth, trade and infrastructure
advancement to the area which has been traditionally left behind in development. Compare
it to how Karachi port transformed a once sleepy fishing village to a mega polis.

Dimension Two: Chinese Interests in Reaching Blue Waters

(1) It is also widely claimed that there is a Chinese interest in reaching the blue waters of
Arabian Sea. This is cited as a strategic move by Chinese as they funded US $198 million
(out of total phase I cost of US $248 million) and also provided 450 Engineers on site to
finish the project on time. China is trying to develop its Western regions at par with its
Eastern regions to reduce the economic gap within China and to stop the internal migration
of people from West to East. It is famously called their ‘Go West’ policy. To market
products produced in Western China, ports of Shanghai or other eastern ports are almost
3000 km away from the western production centers where as Gawadar provides access to a
port at just 1500 km.

(2) There is another dimension to this project where Gawadar port is considered as the
naval outpost for the Chinese. It has been called part of ‘String of Pearls’ strategy of
Chinese where they’ve got hold of strategic ports in Gawadar, Bangladesh, SriLanka,
Burma, Thailand, Combodia, and South China Sea etc. On a world map, these ports form
of string (of pearls) which may form as Chinese line of defense to control oil movement.
80% of oil used in China goes through shipping lines of Malacca Straits. This strategy of a
series of ports along the oil shipment routes gives China a forward footing. It is said that
China is also wary that US may cut off its oil supplies through Malacca straits in case of any
increase of hostilities on Taiwan issue.

(3) China has however, always denied that Gawadar will ever be used by Chinese military.
Publicly they have always called it a civilian port of Pakistan.

Dimension Three: Iranian and Indian Interests in the Area

(1) Gawadar port is also making regional players nervous. Iran which is only 72 km away
from Gawadar considers it as an economic threat taking business away from Iranian ports.
So in competition to Gawadar, Iran has developed its own port called Chabahar with the
help of India. Chabahar is located in Iranian Balochistan province of Seestan. India is also
building 213 km long road to connect this Iranian port with Afghanistan. India is eyeing
this Iranian port as its own shortest route to Central Asian markets and may be a counter
balance to Chinese influence in Gawadar.

(2) India may also consider the Chinese influence in Gawadar as a move by China to
encircle India, hence their interest in developing Iranian port of Chabahar.

10
Dimension Four: Baloch Nationalist Interests
(1) Balochi people in whose province this port has been developed are not 100% behind the
project. Their apprehensions are that other provinces will reap the real economic benefits
of this development. There is also a resentment against the labor for the port coming from
other provinces as well as the real estate boom that Gawadar is seeing is going to people
from outside Balochistan. This has resulted in some violence in the area including some
attacks even targeted against the Chinese engineers.

The attacks against the Chinese also gives rise to the speculation that our friendly neighbors
may be inciting Balochi nationalism for their own economic agenda but there has to be
some truth that Balochis deserve more share in their province’s resources.

Oman
Oman has offered $100 million aid for the development of social and infrastructure facilities
in Balochistan. Out of $100 million, she has provided $7 million for extending of runway at
Gawadar Airport, construction of jetties, upgradation of Gawadar Hospital, provision of
100 engines to fishermen and construction of power house. Oman is also financing
construction of Gwadar-Hoshab Road, water supply scheme in Gawadar area and
construction of irrigation dams.

Pakistan and Oman have signed a number of agreements including Avoidance of Double
Taxation, Promotion and Protection of Investment, Cultural, Technical and Educational
Cooperation, Agreement on cooperation between Oman Chamber of Commerce and
Industry , Maritime Boundary Agreement and Agreement to establish Pak-Oman Joint
Investment Company.
China's pearl in Pakistan's waters
China's involvement in the Gawadar project is immense. The total cost of the project is
estimated at US$1.16 billion, of which China has contributed about $198 million for the first
phase - almost four times the amount Pakistan has forked out for this phase - which
includes construction of three multi-purpose ship berths. China has invested another $200
million toward building a highway connecting Gawadar port with Pakistan's largest city,
Karachi, which is also a port on the Arabian Sea.

The second phase, which envisages nine more berths, an approach channel and storage
terminals, will also be financed by China. In addition to its financial contribution, China
has sent about 450 engineers and provided technical expertise for the project.

In recent years, bilateral trade has steadily increased between China and Pakistan, with a
35% rise to $2.4 billion in 2004, half the trade volume registered between China and India.

11
The balance of trade remains overwhelmingly in China's favor, whose exports amounted to
$1.8 billion compared with Pakistan's $575 million. Both Pakistan and China have
highlighted the economic returns that development of the Gawadar port holds out for the
two countries.

For Pakistan, the economic returns from Gawadar port stem from its location near the
Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world's oil passes. Gawadar could emerge as a
key shipping point, bringing Pakistan much-needed income, and when combined with the
surrounding areas could become a trade hub, once road and rail links connect it to the rest
of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia.

A road from Gawadar to Saindak, said to be the shortest route between Central Asia and
the sea, is under construction. Gawadar would provide landlocked Afghanistan and the
Central Asian republics with access to the sea. Goods and oil and gas reserves from these
countries could be shipped to global markets through Gawadar port. Pakistan's business
community seems to be in favor of Gawadar port being designated a free trade zone and an
export-processing zone.

China's gains
Gawadar provides China "a transit terminal for crude-oil imports from Iran and Africa to
China's Xinjiang region". The network of rail and road links connecting Pakistan with
Afghanistan and Central Asian republics that is envisaged as part of the Gawadar project
and to which China will have access would provide Beijing an opening into Central Asian
markets and energy sources, in the process stimulating the economic development of
China's backward Xinjiang region.

During the 1971 India-Pakistan war, India's blockade of Karachi had a serious impact on
the Pakistani economy. Again in 1999, during the Kargil conflict, India threatened to
blockade Karachi port. That Gawadar is situated 725km to the west of Karachi, which
makes it 725km further away from India than Karachi, provides "Pakistan with crucial
strategic depth ".

For China, Gwadar's strategic value stems from its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz.
About 60% of China's energy supplies come from the Middle East, and China has been
anxious that the US, which has a very high presence in the region, could choke off these
supplies to China. "Having no blue-water navy to speak of, China feels defenseless in the
Persian Gulf against any hostile action to choke off its energy supplies" .

A presence in Gawadar provides China with a "listening post" where it can "monitor US
naval activity in the Persian Gulf, Indian activity in the Arabian Sea and future US-Indian
maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean.
Drawing attention to China's "string of pearls" strategy, the report points out that "China
is building strategic relationships along the sea lanes from the Middle East to the South
China Sea in ways that suggest defensive and offensive positioning to protect China's energy
interests, but also to serve broad security objectives". The port and naval base in Gawadar
is part of the "string of pearls".

The other "pearls" in the string include facilities in Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand,
Cambodia and the South China Sea that Beijing has acquired access to by assiduously

12
building ties with governments in these countries.

China's foothold in the Arabian Sea has set off alarm bells in India, Iran and the US. For
India, China-Pakistan collaboration at Gawadar and China's presence in the Arabian Sea
heightens its feeling of encirclement by China from all sides. Iran sees the development of
Gawadar port in its neighborhood as likely to erode the significances.
Ultimately, the extent to which Pakistan and China are able to reap economic and strategic
gains from the Gawadar project would depend on the challenges to it from within their
borders. The Gawadar project is bitterly opposed by Baloch nationalists who see it as yet
another example of Pakistan's Punjabi-dominated ruling elite siphoning away Balochi
wealth and resources without this backward region or its people gaining.

For instance, it is non-Balochis who are said to have gained from the sharp rise in real
estate prices around Gawadar. This has, not surprisingly, triggered angry and violent
attacks on pipelines carrying oil from Balochistan and on those working on the Gawadar
project. Three Chinese engineers were killed and 11 others, including nine Chinese and two
Pakistanis, were injured in a bomb attack by the Balochistan Liberation Army.

Pakistan has often blamed "a foreign hand" for the violence in Balochistan. But the threat
to the port project or the oil pipelines comes from disaffected Balochis. Similarly, Uighur
separatists angry with Beijing's "Hanification" of their land could target Chinese workers
at Gawadar.

Gawadar, China, the U.S., and the Great Game

Balochistan is on the map to the right; the Swat Valley, where much of the recent news has
been, is at roughly it might be that we're going to be hearing a lot more about Gawadar and
Balochistan in the future. For those of us who are inclined (either because of a cynical
disposition or an appreciation of history, if those are different things) to see the U.S. fight
against Al Qaeda and the Taliban as primarily a pretext for moves by the US in a Great
Game with China, the following is an interesting development.

Afzal Khan writes from Islamabad:

"China is concerned over the increasing US influence in the region," Chinese Ambassador
Lou Zhaohui said that the number of foreign forces was "too high" in the region. It is for
the first time that China has publicly stated a position on American military presence in the
area ever since it attacked Afghanistan after the 9/11 in 2001.

Chinese envoy said the "outside influence" was growing in the region. China has suspicions
over US intentions in Gawadar port built by Chinese assistance. The port can act as a
gateway for China to reach out to West Asia. These are issues of serious concern for China.

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Gawadar is in Balochistan, a region of Pakistan with an insurgent nationalist (not Taliban)
movement. Balochistan is both the largest and least populated province of Pakistan.

The dynamics of U.S. geopolitical and military involvement:

Washington's dream scenario is Gawadar as the new Dubai - while China would need
Gawadar as a port and also as a base for pumping gas via a long pipeline to China. One way
or another, it will all depend on local grievances being taken very seriously. Islamabad pays
a pittance in royalties for the Balochis, and development aid is negligible; Balochistan is
treated as a backwater. Gawadar as the new Dubai would not necessarily mean local
Balochis benefiting from the boom; in many cases they could even be stripped of their local
land.

To top it all, there's the New Great Game in Eurasia fact that Pakistan is a key pivot to both
NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which Pakistan is an
observer. So whoever "wins" Balochistan incorporates Pakistan as a key transit corridor to
either Iranian gas from the monster South Pars field or a great deal of the Caspian wealth
of "gas republic" Turkmenistan.

Now imagine thousands of mobile US troops - backed by supreme air power and hardcore
artillery - pouring into this desert across the immense, 800-kilometer-long, empty southern
Afghanistan-Balochistan border. These are Obama's surge troops who will be in theory
destroying opium crops in Helmand province in Afghanistan. They will also try to establish
a meaningful presence in the ultra-remote, southwest Afghanistan, Baloch-majority
province of Nimruz. It would take nothing for them to hit Pakistani Balochistan in hot
pursuit of Taliban bands. And this would certainly be a prelude for a de facto US invasion
of Balochistan.

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