COMP ANY NOT E

Au g u s t 1 4 , 2 0 1 4
Einstein Noah Restaurant Group (BAGL) Neutral
Rebalancing Act: Tweaking Estimates and Price Target
PRICE: US$14.70
TARGET: US$14.00
~7x FY15E EV/EBITDA of $53M (net debt
$100M, s/o 18M)
Nicole Miller Regan
Sr Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
612 303-6637, nmr@pjc.com
Joshua C. Long, CFA
Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
612 303-6928, joshua.c.long@pjc.com
Changes Previous Current
Rating Neutral
Price Tgt US$16.00 US$14.00
FY14E Rev (mil) US$453.3
FY15E Rev (mil) US$474.8
FY14E EPS US$0.94 US$0.90
FY15E EPS US$1.10 US$0.97
52-Week High / Low US$18.30 / US$14.09
Shares Out (mil) 18.0
Market Cap. (mil) US$264.6
Avg Daily Vol (000) 80
Book Value/Share US$2.32
Net Cash Per Share NA
Debt to Total Capital 70%
Div (ann) 0.52
Yield 3.54%
Fiscal Year End Dec
Price Performance - 1 Year
Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
USD
Source: Bloomberg
CONCLUSI ON
While we thematically believe the broader restaurant space remains relevant and
investable during the remainder of this favorable cycle, we hold no expectation that all
operators and therefore stocks within the industry should benefit equally. Specific to
BAGL shares, our updated model reflects more muted expectations that better reflect
guidance, specifically as it relates to FY14 store-level margin. While encouraged by
the ongoing CEO/COO search process, we continue to believe the company's current
vacancies in these positions may ultimately delay delivery of consistent financial results.
We are maintaining our Neutral rating and lowering our price target to $14 vs. $16 prior.
Our target remains based on ~7x our FY15E EV/EBITDA.

Rebalancing Act. While we continue to view the restaurant industry as investable we

are revisiting our estimates and ratings on a number of covered companies today in
an effort to re-align and rebalance expectations. Specific to BAGL shares, our updated
model reflects more muted expectations that better reflect guidance, specifically as it
relates to FY14 store-level margin. While encouraged by the apparent progress of the
CEO search process, we continue to believe the company's current vacancies (CEO
departure in February 2014 and COO departure in May 2014) may ultimately delay
delivery of consistent financial results.

Modest Earnings Adjustments. We are lowering our forward EPS estimates to $0.90
and $0.97 (vs. $0.98 and $1.10 prior) for FY14 and FY15, respectively. Our top line
assumptions are relatively unchanged, with our system-wide comp assumptions of
+1.4% and +1.1% for FY14 & FY15, respectively. Changes to our FY14 estimates
largely reflect previously issued guidance, specifically as it relates to FY14 store-level
margin, now with those flat vs. up 50 bps prior. Our FY15 EPS expectations now also
reflect more modest 20 bps store-level margin expansion vs. up 40 bps prior.

Restaurant Industry Remains Investable. While we thematically believe the broader

restaurant space remains relevant and investable during the remainder of this favorable
cycle, we hold no expectation that all operators and therefore stocks within the
industry should benefit equally. Specific to BAGL shares, we note that remaining on
the sidelines could lead to missed upside as it relates to improved brand equity and
operations as a result of the company's 2014 Revitalization Plan to drive consistent
sales, traffic, earnings and cash flow.
RI SKS TO ACHI EVEMENT OF PRI CE TARGET
Risks include accelerated development, consistent traffic gains and the hiring and
integration of a new CEO as well as COO.
COMPANY DESCRI PTI ON
Einstein Noah Group, Inc. owns, operates and franchises/licenses a chain of specialty
bagel restaurants under the names Einstein, Noah's and Manhattan's.
YEAR
2013A
2014E
2015E
REVENUE (US$ m)
Mar Jun Sep Dec FY FY RM
106.1 107.8 106.4 114.2 434.5 0.6x
109.9A 112.4A 111.3 119.7 453.3 0.6x
114.4 117.5 117.1 125.9 474.8 0.6x
EARNINGS PER SHARE (US$)
Mar Jun Sep Dec FY FY P/E
0.14 0.19 0.22 0.27 0.82 17.9x
0.15A 0.18A 0.22 0.35 0.90 16.3x
0.16 0.21 0.24 0.36 0.97 15.2x
Page 1 of 4 Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc.
Piper Jaffray does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as
only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure
information, including an attestation under Regulation Analyst certification, found on pages 3 - 4 of this report or at the following
site: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures.
Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc.
Earnings Model 2013 Actual 2014 Estimate 2015 Estimate Fiscal Year Ended December
Fiscal Year Ended December 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Revised 08/14/14 ($ millions) 04/20/13 07/13/13 10/01/13 12/29/13 04/20/14 07/13/14 09/29/14 12/29/14 04/20/15 07/13/15 09/29/15 12/29/15 52-wks 52-wks 52-wks 52-wks
SSS: Company-Owned (1.0%) +0.4% (1.8%) (0.5%) +1.7% +0.9% +1.0% +1.0% +1.0% +1.0% +1.0% +1.0% +0.9% (0.7%) +1.2% +1.0%
SSS: System-wide (0.6%) +0.7% (1.4%) +0.1% +1.6% +1.6% +1.1% +1.1% +1.1% +1.1% +1.1% +1.1% +1.0% (0.3%) +1.4% +1.1%
INCOME STATEMENT
Company-Owned 94.2 $ 97.1 $ 95.6 $ 101.4 $ 96.6 $ 100.2 $ 99.0 $ 105.2 $ 99.5 $ 103.9 $ 103.4 $ 109.7 $ 384.8 $ 388.4 $ 401.0 $ 416.5 $
Manufacturing Revenues 8.9 8.0 7.9 8.8 9.5 9.2 8.7 9.7 10.4 10.1 9.6 10.6 31.0 33.6 37.0 40.7
Franchise/License Royalties/Fees 3.0 2.7 2.9 4.0 3.8 3.0 3.6 4.8 4.4 3.5 4.1 5.5 11.2 12.5 15.2 17.6
Total Revenues 106.1 107.8 106.4 114.2 109.9 112.4 111.3 119.7 114.4 117.5 117.1 125.9 427.0 434.5 453.3 474.8
Food, Beverage and Packaging 26.6 27.1 26.7 28.7 26.6 27.0 27.1 29.5 27.4 28.0 28.3 30.7 106.9 109.1 110.2 114.5
Labor 28.7 28.5 27.7 28.9 28.9 29.3 28.7 30.0 29.7 30.4 30.0 30.7 111.8 113.8 116.9 120.9
Rent and Related Expenses 10.8 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.3 11.6 11.4 11.9 11.6 12.0 11.9 12.4 41.5 43.8 46.2 48.0
Other Operating Costs 10.1 11.0 11.2 11.1 11.3 11.9 11.9 11.6 11.6 12.4 12.4 12.0 40.8 43.4 46.6 48.4
Marketing Expenses 2.5 2.8 2.4 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.1 2.4 3.2 11.4 10.9 11.5 12.1
Restaurant Profit Margin 15.5 17.1 16.6 18.1 15.3 17.4 17.6 19.3 15.7 17.9 18.4 20.7 72.3 67.3 69.6 72.7
Manufacturing Costs 6.5 5.6 6.2 6.5 7.6 7.3 6.6 7.1 8.1 7.9 7.5 8.3 24.2 24.8 28.7 31.8
Contribution Margin 20.9 22.1 21.3 24.3 21.0 22.2 23.3 26.6 22.4 23.6 24.6 28.6 90.3 88.6 93.1 99.3
General & Administrative 10.2 10.2 9.8 10.2 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.4 11.3 11.0 11.1 10.9 39.6 40.4 42.1 44.4
Depreciation & Amortization 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.6 4.9 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 5.0 19.7 18.2 18.2 19.0
Pre-Opening Expenses 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.1 1.1 1.4
Provision For Closing/Other 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 - - - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.5
Operating Income 5.4 6.8 6.5 9.2 5.6 6.9 7.6 11.4 6.1 7.4 8.3 12.1 28.1 27.9 31.5 33.9
Interest Expense/(Income) 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 3.4 6.0 4.6 4.7
Other Expense/(Income) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pre-Tax Income 3.6 5.2 5.1 8.0 4.5 5.9 6.5 10.1 4.9 6.2 7.2 10.8 24.7 21.9 26.9 29.2
Income Taxes 1.3 1.8 1.1 3.1 1.8 2.6 2.4 3.7 1.9 2.4 2.8 4.2 8.6 7.3 10.5 11.4
Net Income--Operating 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.9 2.7 3.3 4.1 6.4 3.0 3.8 4.4 6.6 16.1 14.6 16.4 17.8
Non-Operating Expenses/(Income) - - - - 0.7 0.7 - - - - - - 3.4 - 1.4 -
Net Income--Reported 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.9 2.1 2.5 4.1 6.4 3.0 3.8 4.4 6.6 12.7 14.6 15.0 17.8
Shares Outstanding--Diluted 17.4 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.4 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.4
EBITDA 10.3 11.4 10.9 13.4 9.9 11.5 12.5 15.8 10.7 12.1 13.0 17.1 47.8 46.1 49.7 52.9
EPS--Operating 0.14 $ 0.19 $ 0.22 $ 0.27 $ 0.15 $ 0.18 $ 0.22 $ 0.35 $ 0.16 $ 0.21 $ 0.24 $ 0.36 $ 0.93 $ 0.82 $ 0.90 $ 0.97 $
EPS--Extraordinary - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.04 $ 0.04 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 0.20 $ - $ 0.08 $ - $
EPS--Reported 0.14 $ 0.19 $ 0.22 $ 0.27 $ 0.11 $ 0.14 $ 0.22 $ 0.35 $ 0.16 $ 0.21 $ 0.24 $ 0.36 $ 0.74 $ 0.82 $ 0.83 $ 0.97 $
MARGIN ANALYSIS
Company-Owned 88.8% 90.1% 89.9% 88.8% 87.9% 89.1% 89.0% 87.9% 87.0% 88.4% 88.3% 87.2% 90.1% 89.4% 88.5% 87.7%
Manufacturing Revenues 8.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.7% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 8.1% 9.1% 8.6% 8.2% 8.4% 7.3% 7.7% 8.2% 8.6%
Franchise/License Royalties/Fees 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 2.7% 3.2% 4.0% 3.9% 3.0% 3.5% 4.4% 2.6% 2.9% 3.4% 3.7%
Total Revenues 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Food, Beverage and Packaging 28.2% 28.0% 27.9% 28.3% 27.5% 27.0% 27.4% 28.0% 27.5% 27.0% 27.4% 28.0% 27.8% 28.1% 27.5% 27.5%
Labor 30.4% 29.4% 29.0% 28.5% 29.9% 29.3% 29.0% 28.5% 29.9% 29.3% 29.0% 28.0% 29.1% 29.3% 29.1% 29.0%
Rent and Related Expenses 11.5% 10.9% 11.5% 11.3% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 11.3% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 11.3% 10.8% 11.3% 11.5% 11.5%
Other Operating Expenses 10.8% 11.3% 11.7% 10.9% 11.7% 11.9% 12.0% 11.0% 11.7% 11.9% 12.0% 10.9% 10.6% 11.2% 11.6% 11.6%
Marketing Expenses 2.6% 2.9% 2.5% 3.1% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9% 3.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Restaurant Profit 16.5% 17.6% 17.4% 17.8% 15.9% 17.3% 17.8% 18.3% 15.8% 17.2% 17.8% 18.9% 18.8% 17.3% 17.3% 17.5%
Manufacturing Costs (as % of Manf. Revs) 72.7% 70.8% 77.7% 74.0% 80.2% 80.0% 76.0% 74.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.0% 78.1% 73.8% 77.5% 78.0%
Contribution Margin 19.7% 20.5% 20.0% 21.3% 19.1% 19.8% 20.9% 22.2% 19.6% 20.1% 21.0% 22.7% 21.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.9%
General & Administrative 9.6% 9.4% 9.2% 8.9% 9.8% 9.4% 9.4% 8.7% 9.9% 9.4% 9.5% 8.7% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.4%
Depreciation & Amortization 4.7% 4.3% 4.2% 3.7% 3.9% 4.1% 4.4% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0%
Pre-Opening Expenses 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Provision For Closing/Other 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
Operating Income 5.1% 6.3% 6.1% 8.0% 5.1% 6.2% 6.8% 9.5% 5.3% 6.3% 7.1% 9.6% 6.6% 6.4% 7.0% 7.1%
Interest Expense/(Income) 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 1.0%
Other Expense/(Income) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pre-Tax Income 3.4% 4.8% 4.8% 7.0% 4.1% 5.2% 5.8% 8.4% 4.3% 5.3% 6.1% 8.6% 5.8% 5.0% 5.9% 6.1%
Income Taxes (Tax Rate) 34.8% 35.7% 21.9% 39.0% 39.2% 44.5% 37.0% 37.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 39.0% 34.8% 33.5% 39.0% 39.0%
Net Income--Operating 2.2% 3.1% 3.8% 4.2% 2.5% 2.9% 3.7% 5.3% 2.6% 3.2% 3.7% 5.3% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.7%
EBITDA 9.7% 10.6% 10.3% 11.7% 9.0% 10.2% 11.2% 13.2% 9.3% 10.3% 11.1% 13.6% 11.2% 10.6% 11.0% 11.1%
YEAR-OVER-YEAR % CHANGE
Company-Owned Restaurant Sales 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1.9% 2.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 3.0% 3.6% 4.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.9% 3.3% 3.9%
Manufacturing Revenues 5.7% 10.0% 5.4% 12.0% 6.3% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% -10.1% 8.2% 10.2% 10.0%
Franchise Royalties and Fees -0.2% 14.7% 11.7% 21.6% 28.8% 12.9% 23.8% 19.9% 15.5% 16.0% 15.6% 15.0% 8.3% 12.1% 21.4% 15.5%
Total Revenues 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 3.2% 3.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.1% 4.5% 5.3% 5.2% 0.8% 1.8% 4.3% 4.7%
Net Income--Operating -33.5% 4.1% 17.8% -18.2% 15.3% -2.5% 1.1% 31.1% 10.6% 17.0% 7.7% 4.0% 15.6% -9.5% 12.6% 8.6%
Net Income--Pro Forma -25.6% 13.1% 17.8% 53.2% -12.8% -23.6% 1.1% 31.1% 46.4% 49.4% 7.7% 4.0% -4.2% 14.7% 3.2% 18.5%
EPS--Operating -34.5% 0.3% 13.5% -21.6% 11.3% -4.3% -0.7% 29.1% 8.7% 16.0% 6.8% 3.1% 14.1% -12.5% 10.1% 7.5%
EBITDA -9.0% 4.5% -3.7% -5.5% -3.7% 0.6% 14.0% 18.3% 7.4% 5.2% 4.6% 8.2% 6.5% -3.6% 7.9% 6.4%
Unit Growth: Company 3.1% 1.1% 2.0% -0.7% -0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 2.0% 2.2% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 4.8% -0.7% 2.0% 3.2%
Unit Growth: Franchise & License 9.4% 9.9% 8.4% 20.0% 20.5% 22.0% 20.2% 12.9% 14.0% 13.8% 13.1% 12.5% 6.6% 20.0% 12.9% 12.5%
Unit Growth: Total 5.8% 4.9% 4.8% 8.3% 8.8% 10.2% 9.3% 7.2% 7.9% 8.6% 8.2% 7.9% 5.6% 8.3% 7.2% 7.9%
UNIT DATA
Company-Owned Restaurants 461 453 461 458 459 456 462 467 469 472 477 482 461 458 467 482
Franchise Restaurants 99 107 109 126 127 130 136 142 147 152 157 162 97 126 142 162
License Restaurants 262 261 278 300 308 319 329 339 349 359 369 379 258 300 339 379
Total Restaurants 822 821 848 884 894 905 927 948 965 983 1,003 1,023 816 884 948 1,023
Source: Company reports and Piper J affray & Co. estimates.
Current disclosure information for this company is located at: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures Nicole Miller Regan (612) 303-6637
Page 2 of 4 Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc.
COMP ANY NOT E
Au g u s t 1 4 , 2 0 1 4
IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES
Notes: The boxes on the Rating and Price Target History chart above indicate the date of the Research Note, the rating, and the price target. Each
box represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first Note
written during the past three years.
Legend:
I: Initiating Coverage
R: Resuming Coverage
T: Transferring Coverage
D: Discontinuing Coverage
S: Suspending Coverage
OW: Overweight
N: Neutral
UW: Underweight
NA: Not Available
UR: Under Review
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services
Piper Jaffray
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [OW]
362 61.56 94 25.97
HOLD [N]
215 36.56 22 10.23
SELL [UW]
11 1.87 0 0.00

Note: Distribution of Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies currently in each rating category from which Piper Jaffray and its affiliates
received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. FINRA rules require disclosure of which ratings most closely
correspond with "buy," "hold," and "sell" recommendations. Piper Jaffray ratings are not the equivalent of buy, hold or sell, but instead represent
recommended relative weightings. Nevertheless, Overweight corresponds most closely with buy, Neutral with hold and Underweight with sell. See
Stock Rating definitions below.
Analyst Certification Nicole Miller Regan, Sr Research Analyst
Analyst Certification Joshua C. Long, CFA, Research Analyst
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company and the subject security. In addition, no part of
my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
Page 3 of 4 Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc.
COMP ANY NOT E
Au g u s t 1 4 , 2 0 1 4
Research Disclosures
Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper
Jaffray will buy and sell Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc. securities on a principal basis.
Piper Jaffray research analysts receive compensation that is based, in part, on overall firm revenues, which include investment banking revenues.
Rating Definitions
Stock Ratings: Piper Jaffray ratings are indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend) within the next 12 months. At times
analysts may specify a different investment horizon or may include additional investment time horizons for specific stocks. Stock performance
is measured relative to the group of stocks covered by each analyst. Lists of the stocks covered by each are available at www.piperjaffray.com/
researchdisclosures. Stock ratings and/or stock coverage may be suspended from time to time in the event that there is no active analyst opinion
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in fundamental research reports.

Overweight (OW): Anticipated to outperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.

Neutral (N): Anticipated to perform in line relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.

Underweight (UW): Anticipated to underperform relative to the median of the group of stocks covered by the analyst.
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Page 4 of 4 Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc.