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Chapter 2
Electrical Load Forecasting
Chapter content:
(2.0)Types of Patterns
(3.0)Some definitions
(4.0)Forecasting Methodology
(5.0)Method of Calculation
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
Chapter 2
Electrical Load Forecasting
Power distribution system planning is essential to assure that the
growing demand of electricity can be satisfied by distribution system
additions which are both technically adequate and reasonably
economical the application of some type of systematic approach to
generation and transmission system planning.
In the future more than the past, electric utilities will need a fast and
economical planning tool to evaluate the consequences of different
proposed alternatives and impact on the test of the system to provide
the necessary economical, reliable and safe electric energy to
consumers.
(1.1)Load forecasting:
The load growth of the geographical area served by a utility company
is the most important factor influencing the expansion of distribution
system. Therefore, forecasting of load increases and system reaction
to these increases is essential to the planning process. There are two
common time scales of importance to load forecasting long-range, with
time horizon of up to five years distant. Ideally, these forecasts would
predict future load in detail, extending even to the individual customer
level.
(1.1.1)Definition of ELF:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
T
K
Load
H
F
?
in
u
o
m
rtso
e
tw
iu
n
zro
r
e
o
i
n
yc
a
e
l
a
r
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
Fig. 2.1
Over the last few decades a number of forecasting methods have been
introduced. Most of these methods use statistical techniques
sometimes combined with artificial intelligence algorithms such as
neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. Two of the methods,
so-called end-use and econometric approach are broadly used for
medium and long-term forecasting. A variety of methods, that include
the so-called similar day approach, various regression models, time
series, neural networks, statistical learning algorithms, fuzzy logic, and
expert systems, have been developed for short-term forecasting.
A large variety of mathematical methods and ideas have been used for
load forecasting. The development and improvements of appropriate
mathematical tools will lead to the development of more accurate load
forecasting techniques.
1. Land use:
(Residential, industrial, commercial, agriculture . . . etc.). Different
types of use affect the capacity of the substation, i.e. residential loads
is different from industrial loads.
2. Population growth:
As the population increases more loads are needed.
3. Historical Data:
Historical data plays an important role in forecasting since they can tell
how the load will behave in the future.
(1.2)Substation expansion:
Presents some of the factors affecting the substation expansion the
planner makes a decision based on tangible or intangible information.
For example, the forecasted load, load density and load growth may
require a substation expansion or a new substation construction. In the
system expansion plan the present system configuration, capacity and
the forecasted loads can play major roles.
(1.4)Other factors:
Once the load assignments to the substation are determined then
the remaining factors affecting primary voltage selection, feeder
route selection, number of feeders, conductor size selection and
total cost, need to be considered.
(2.0)Types of Patterns:
By the word pattern we mean how the load changes with time. Four
basic types of patterns often exist in data series:
(2.1)Horizontal pattern:
This exists when there is no trend in a data series. This can happen
when there is no more expected load increase in the area. Such
pattern is generally referred to as stationary. Example of this load
pattern is the load pattern of Abbasia district in Cairo where there is
not a single meter to build more buildings on. Figure below shows
changing of load in the y-axis with time in the x-axis.
(3.0)Some definitions:
Load Duration Curve:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
Line charts showing the percentage of time the hourly load was at or
near peak values. The Y-axis is percentage of peak; the X-axis is
percentage of time.
Maximum Demand:
The maximum diversified demand of the energy consumed for specific
time periods.
(4.0)Forecasting Methodology:
(4.1)Extrapolation:
(4.2)Correlation:
(5.0)Method of Calculation:
(5.1) Simple Regression:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
Y = f (x)
Ŷ=a+bt
Minimum
n
∑[Yi − f ( xi )]2 =
i =1
Y = f ( x)
^
Y = a + bt
n ^
e 2 = ∑ (Y − Y ) 2
i =0
n
e 2 = ∑ [Y − (a + bt)]2
i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt)](−1) = 0
∂a i =0
n n n
∑ Y = ∑ a + ∑ bt
i =0 i =0 i =0
Or
n n
∑ Y = na + ∑ bt
i=0 i=0
∂e 2 n
= 2 ∑ [Y − (a + bt)](−1) = 0
∂b i =0
n n n
∑ tY = ∑ at + ∑ bt 2
i=0 i=0 i=0
n n
n
∑t ∑Y
a i =0
i=0
n ⋅ = n
t
n
2
b
∑ ∑t ∑ tY
i = 0 i=0 i =0
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
(5.3)Quadratic Regression:
Y = f ( x)
^
Y = a + bt + ct 2
n ^
e 2 = ∑ (Y − Y ) 2
i =0
n
e 2 = ∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )]2
i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )](−1) = 0
∂a i =0
n n
∑ Y = ∑ a + bt + ct 2
i =0 i =0
n n n
∑ Y = na + b∑ t + c∑ t 2
i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )](−t ) = 0
∂b i =0
n n n n
∑ tY = a∑ t + b∑ t 2 + c∑ t 3
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )](−t 2 ) = 0
∂c i =0
n n n n
∑ t 2Y = a ∑ t 2 + b ∑ t 3 + c ∑ t 4
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
n n
2 n
n
∑t ∑ t ∑Y
i =0
i =o i =0
n a
3
n n n
t
∑ ∑t2 ∑ t ⋅ b = ∑ tY
c n
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
n n n
4 2
∑t ∑t3 ∑t ∑t Y
2
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
(5.4)Polynomial Regression:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
Y = f ( x)
^
Y = a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3
n ^
e 2 = ∑ (Y − Y ) 2
i =0
n
e 2 = ∑ [Y − ( a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )]2
i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−1) = 0
∂a i =0
n n
∑ Y = ∑ a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3
i =0 i =0
n n n n
∑ Y = na + b∑ t + c∑ t 2 + d ∑ t 3
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−t ) = 0
∂b i =0
n n n n n
∑ tY = a∑ t + b∑ t 2 + c∑ t 3 + d ∑ t 4
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−t 2 ) = 0
∂c i =0
n n n n n
∑ t 2Y = a ∑ t 2 + b ∑ t 3 + c ∑ t 4 + d ∑ t 5
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−t 3 )
∂d i =0
n n n n n
∑ t Y = a∑ t
3 3
+ b∑ t + c ∑ t + d ∑ t 6
4 5
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
n n n n
n
∑t ∑t 2
∑t 3
∑Y
i =0
i =o i =0 i =0
n n n n n
t 4 a
∑ ∑t2 ∑ t3 ∑ t b ∑ tY
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
n ⋅ = n
5 c
n n n
2
∑t ∑ t3 ∑t4 ∑ t d ∑ t Y
2
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
i =0
n 3 n n n n
3
∑t ∑t4 ∑ t5 ∑t6 ∑t Y
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
(1)Agriculture.
(2) Residential.
Σ(y * Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 t) t2 )
Table 2.1
n
∑ t * a = ∑ y
0
∑ t ∑ t a ∑ ( y * t )
2
1
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
year t y y^ e e2
68.0753 - 1.97511
2000 2 66.67 9 1.40539 8
75.0377 - 7.93955
2002 4 72.22 2 2.81772 9
78.5188 - 0.54595
2003 5 77.78 9 0.73889 7
88.9623 -
2006 8 88.89 9 0.07239 0.00524
92.4435 - 0.04997
2007 9 92.22 6 0.22356 7
Σe2
18.4468
1
Table 2.2
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
(6.1.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t + a 2 * t 2
Where
n
∑t ∑t 2
a 0 ∑ y
∑t ∑t ∑t * a1 = ∑( y * t )
2 3
Therefore
year t y y^ e e2
2.47747
2000 2 66.67 68.244 -1.574 6
74.6282 - 5.79961
2002 4 72.22 4 2.40824 1
78.0371 - 0.06612
2003 5 77.78 4 0.25714 2
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
0.05808
2006 8 88.89 89.131 -0.241 1
0.80640
2007 9 92.22 93.118 -0.898 4
Σe2
16.8385
Table 2.3
From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model, therefore:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
ŷ
Table 2.4
year t
65.268
1999 1 67
2000 2 68.244
For 2017: Load
71.363
(MVA) =140.368 2001 3 86
MVA
74.628
2002 4 24
(6.2)Residenti
78.037
al region: 2003 5 14
81.590
2004 6 57
85.288
year t y 2005 t 2 7t 3 52t4 y*t y *t2
n
∑ t * a = ∑ y
0
∑ t ∑ t a ∑ ( y * t )
2
1
year t y y^ e e2
56 44 97
-
131.00 6.0055 36.066
2002 4 125 56 6 7
-
137.55 7.5555 57.086
2003 5 130 56 6 42
-
144.10 4.1055 16.855
2004 6 140 56 6 59
-
150.65 0.6555 0.4297
2005 7 150 56 6 53
Σe2
206.07
22
Table 2.6
(6.2.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a0 + a1 * t + a2 * t 2
n
∑t ∑t 2
a 0 ∑ y
3
∑t ∑t ∑t * a1 = ∑( y * t )
2
Where
year t y y^ e e2
118.618 - 0.38214
1999 1 118 2 0.61818 9
122.380 6.86167
2001 3 125 5 2.61948 8
126.596 2.54754
2002 4 125 1 -1.5961 8
-
2003 5 130 132.368 2.36797 5.60726
148.580 2.01492
2005 7 150 5 1.41948 5
171.018 - 1.03669
2007 9 170 2 1.01818 4
Σe2
19.5783
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
Table 2.7
From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model, therefore :
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
year t y^
118.618
1999 1 2
119.721
2000 2 2
122.380
2001 3 5
126.596
2002 4 1
2003 5 132.368
139.696
2004 6 1
148.580
2005 7 5
159.021
2006 8 2
171.018
2007 9 2
184.571
2008 10 4
2009 11 199.681
216.346
2010 12 8
234.568
2011 13 8
254.347
2012 14 2
275.681
Table 2.8
2013 15 8
298.572
2014 16 7
323.019
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
466.6
1999 1 7 1 1 1 466.67 466.67
488.8
2000 2 9 4 8 16 977.78 1955.56
555.5
2001 3 6 9 27 81 1666.68 5000.04
588.8 14722.2
2003 5 9 25 125 625 2944.45 5
622.2 22399.9
2004 6 2 36 216 1296 3733.32 2
744.4 60299.6
2007 9 4 81 729 6561 6699.96 4
Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 Σ(y * t) t2 )
5382.7 28936.5
45 7 285 2025 15333 6 190918
Table 2.9
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
n
∑ t * a = ∑ y
0
∑ t ∑ t a ∑ ( y * t )
2
1
year t y y^ e e2
488.8 496.94 -
2000 2 9 8 8.05756 64.9242
564.37 - 87.8198
2002 4 555 1 9.37122 1
622.2 631.79 -
2004 6 2 5 9.57489 91.6785
665.50 -
2005 7 661.1 7 4.40672 19.4192
Σe2
1113.27
Table 2.10
(6.3.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t + a 2 * t 2
Where
n
∑t ∑t 2
a 0 ∑ y
∑t ∑t ∑t * a1 = ∑( y * t )
2 3
year t y y^ e e2
560.02 - 25.2264
2002 4 555 3 5.02259 4
588.8 592.96 -
2003 5 9 7 4.07658 16.6185
663.46 - 5.57730
2005 7 661.1 2 2.36163 6
701.01 1.02555
2006 8 700 3 -1.0127 5
Σe2
931.677
3
Table 2.11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
year t y^
470.404
1999 1 8
498.741
2000 2 7
528.614
2001 3 3
560.022
2002 4 6
592.966
2003 5 6
627.446
2004 6 3
663.461
2005 7 6
701.012
2006 8 7
740.099
2007 9 5
780.721
2008 10 9
2009 11 822.88
866.573
2010 12 9
911.803
2011 13 4
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
958.568
2012 14 6
2013 15 1006.87
1056.70
2014 16 6
1108.07
2015 17 8
1160.98
2016 18 6
2017 19 1215.43
Table 2.12
(6.4)Light Industries:
Σ(y * Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4
t) t2 )
Table 2.13
(6.4.1)Linear model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t
n
∑ t * a = ∑ y
0
∑ t ∑ t a ∑ ( y * t )
2
1
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
year t y y^ e e2
129.338 - 18.8258
2002 4 125 9 4.33888 4
134.222 - 17.8270
2003 5 130 2 4.22221 2
Σe2
52.7388
9
Table 2.14
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
(6.4.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a0 + a1 * t + a2 * t 2
Where
n
∑t ∑t 2
a 0 ∑ y
∑t ∑t ∑t * a1 = ∑( y * t )
2 3
year t y y^ e e2
120.251 -
2000 2 120 5 0.25152 0.06326
127.689 - 7.23167
2002 4 125 2 2.68918 5
132.281 - 5.20471
2003 5 130 4 2.28139 9
156.472 - 2.16892
2007 9 155 7 1.47273 5
Σe2
26.6346
3
Table 2.15
year t y^
117.406
1999 1 1
120.251
2000 2 5
123.679
2001 3 2
127.689
2002 4 2
132.281
2003 5 4
137.455
2004 6 8
143.212
2005 7 6
149.551
2006 8 5
2007 9 156.472
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
163.976
2008 10 2
172.061
2009 11 9
180.729
2010 12 9
189.980
2011 13 1
199.812
2012 14 6
210.227
2013 15 3
221.224
2014 16 2
232.803
2015 17 5
244.964
2016 18 9
257.708
2017 19 7
Table 2.16
(6.5)Heavy Industrial:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 Σ(y * t) t2)
14394.1 96264.7
45 2600 285 2025 15333 2 1
Table 2.17
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
(6.5.1)Linear model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t
n
∑ t * a = ∑ y
0
∑ t ∑ t a ∑ ( y * t )
2
1
Year t y y^ e e2
217.647 - 0.99188
2000 2 1 218.643 0.99593 2
247.058 241.878
2001 3 8 3 5.18054 26.838
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
Σe2
97.395
86
Table 2.18
(6.5.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t + a 2 * t 2
Where
n
∑t ∑t 2
a 0 ∑ y
∑t ∑t ∑t * a1 = ∑( y * t )
2 3
Year t y y^ e e2
270.588 4.75428
2002 4 2 265.834 2 22.6032
Σe2
94.459
17
Table 2.19
Year t ŷ
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11
195.650
1999 1 6
219.108
2000 2 7
242.503
2001 3 2
2002 4 265.834
289.101
2003 5 1
312.304
2004 6 5
335.444
2005 7 3
358.520
2006 8 5
381.532
2007 9 9
404.481
2008 10 7
427.366
2009 11 9
450.188
2010 12 4
472.946
2011 13 2
495.640
2012 14 4
518.270
2013 15 8
2014 16 540.837
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12
563.340
2015 17 8
585.780
2016 18 3
608.156
2017 19 2
Table 2.20
1215.4
Load(MVA) 140.9368 376.5831 608.1562 257.7087
3
Load
Density(MVA/KM 1.1275 3.3474 16.2175 6.872 6.4823
2
)
Table 2.21