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2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Chapter 2
Electrical Load Forecasting

Chapter content:

(1.0)System planning optimality

(2.0)Types of Patterns

(3.0)Some definitions

(4.0)Forecasting Methodology

(5.0)Method of Calculation
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

(6.0)Practical Example of ELF

Chapter 2
Electrical Load Forecasting
Power distribution system planning is essential to assure that the
growing demand of electricity can be satisfied by distribution system
additions which are both technically adequate and reasonably
economical the application of some type of systematic approach to
generation and transmission system planning.

In the future more than the past, electric utilities will need a fast and
economical planning tool to evaluate the consequences of different
proposed alternatives and impact on the test of the system to provide
the necessary economical, reliable and safe electric energy to
consumers.

The objective of distribution system planning is to assure that the


growing demand for electricity, in terms of increasing growth rates and
high load densities can be satisfied in any optimum way.

Technically adequate implies the system is:


1- Reliable (voltage and service continuity)
2- Supply satisfies demand.
3- Equipment is not overloaded.

Total system cost is minimum, where:


2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Total cost = fixed cost + variable cost

Several factors affecting power distribution

(1.0)System planning optimality:

(1.1)Load forecasting:
The load growth of the geographical area served by a utility company
is the most important factor influencing the expansion of distribution
system. Therefore, forecasting of load increases and system reaction
to these increases is essential to the planning process. There are two
common time scales of importance to load forecasting long-range, with
time horizon of up to five years distant. Ideally, these forecasts would
predict future load in detail, extending even to the individual customer
level.

Frequently, there is a time lag between awareness of an impending


event, or need, and the occurrence of that event. This time lag is the
main reason for planning and forecasting. If the time lag is long, and
the outcome of the final event is conditional upon identifiable factors,
planning can play an important role. In such situations, forecasting is
needed to determine when a need will arise so that the appropriate
actions can be taken.

(1.1.1)Definition of ELF:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

T
K
Load
H
F
?
in
u
o
m
rtso
e
tw
iu
n
zro
r
e
o
i
n
yc
a
e
l
a
r
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

Electric Load Forecast is perform analysis of post or/and present data,


identifying trends and patterns that exist in the data, that are then
used to project load into the future.

Fig. 2.1

Load forecasts can be divided into three categories: short-term


forecasts which are usually from one hour to one week, medium
forecasts which are usually from a week to a year, and long-term
forecasts which are longer than a year. The forecasts for different time
horizons are important for different operations within a utility
company. The natures of these forecasts are different as well. For
example, for a particular region, it is possible to predict a next day
load with an accuracy of approximately 1-3%. However, it is impossible
to predict the next year peak load with the similar accuracy since
accurate long-term forecasts are not available. For the next year peak
forecast, it is possible to provide the probability distribution of the load
based on historical weather observations. It is also possible, according
to the industry practice, to predict the so-called weather normalized
load, which would take place for average annual peak weather
conditions or worse than average peak weather conditions for a given
area.
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Load forecasting has always been important for planning and


operational decision conducted by utility companies. However, with the
deregulation of the energy industries, load forecasting is even more
important. With supply and demand --fluctuating with the changes of
weather conditions and energy prices increasing by a factor of ten or
more during peak situations, load forecasting is vitally important for
utilities. Short-term load forecasting can help to estimate load
demands and to make decisions that can prevent overloading. Timely
implementations of such decisions lead to the improvement of network
reliability and to the reduction occurrences of equipment failures and
blackouts. Load forecasting is also important for contract evaluations
and evaluations of various sophisticated financial products on energy
pricing offered by the market. In the deregulated economy, decisions
on capital expenditures based on long-term forecasting are also more
important than in a non-deregulated economy when rate increases
could be justified by capital expenditure projects.

Over the last few decades a number of forecasting methods have been
introduced. Most of these methods use statistical techniques
sometimes combined with artificial intelligence algorithms such as
neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. Two of the methods,
so-called end-use and econometric approach are broadly used for
medium and long-term forecasting. A variety of methods, that include
the so-called similar day approach, various regression models, time
series, neural networks, statistical learning algorithms, fuzzy logic, and
expert systems, have been developed for short-term forecasting.

A large variety of mathematical methods and ideas have been used for
load forecasting. The development and improvements of appropriate
mathematical tools will lead to the development of more accurate load
forecasting techniques.

In this chapter, we are concerned to talk mainly about the long-term


forecast using various regression techniques, and choosing which of
them will be more accurate, to use it at the end to make calculations
for an electrical load forecast for the next 10 years depending on an
available historical data of the loads in the previous years.
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

(1.1.2)Factors Affecting ELF:


Several factors affect ELF. Among them we mention:

1. Land use:
(Residential, industrial, commercial, agriculture . . . etc.). Different
types of use affect the capacity of the substation, i.e. residential loads
is different from industrial loads.

2. Population growth:
As the population increases more loads are needed.

3. Historical Data:
Historical data plays an important role in forecasting since they can tell
how the load will behave in the future.

4. Load Densities (KVA/Km2):


Load density must be put into account during load forecasting, we
must consider the range of enmities as it differs for different types of
loads. Common figures for load densities are 1000 KVA/Km2 for
agricultural areas; 3000 KVA/Km2 for residential areas; 5000 KVA/Km2
for city center and 10,000 KVA/Km2 for industrial areas.
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

(1.2)Substation expansion:
Presents some of the factors affecting the substation expansion the
planner makes a decision based on tangible or intangible information.
For example, the forecasted load, load density and load growth may
require a substation expansion or a new substation construction. In the
system expansion plan the present system configuration, capacity and
the forecasted loads can play major roles.

Fig. 2.2: Factor of substation expansion

(1.3)Substation site selection:


The factors that affect substation site selection. The distance from
the load centers and from the existing sub transmission lines as well
as other limitation, such as availability of land its cost and land use
regulations, are important.

Fig. 2.3: Factors affecting substation site


2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

(1.4)Other factors:
Once the load assignments to the substation are determined then
the remaining factors affecting primary voltage selection, feeder
route selection, number of feeders, conductor size selection and
total cost, need to be considered.

(2.0)Types of Patterns:
By the word pattern we mean how the load changes with time. Four
basic types of patterns often exist in data series:

(2.1)Horizontal pattern:
This exists when there is no trend in a data series. This can happen
when there is no more expected load increase in the area. Such
pattern is generally referred to as stationary. Example of this load
pattern is the load pattern of Abbasia district in Cairo where there is
not a single meter to build more buildings on. Figure below shows
changing of load in the y-axis with time in the x-axis.

Fig. 2.4: Horizontal pattern

(2.2) Trend pattern:


This exists when there is an increase or decrease in the value of
electric load consumption. Such pattern is generally referred to as non-
stationary.
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Fig. 2.5: Trend pattern

(2.3) Seasonal pattern:


This exists when data series fluctuates according to some seasonal
factors.

Fig. 2.6: Seasonal pattern

(2.4) Cyclical pattern:


This exists when data series fluctuates and doesn't repeat itself at
constant time interval. One of the factors that may cause the pattern
to be so is an economical crisis in the state which may cause to stop
some industries in the state causing a dip in the load curve.

Fig. 2.7: Cyclical pattern

(3.0)Some definitions:
Load Duration Curve:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Line charts showing the percentage of time the hourly load was at or
near peak values. The Y-axis is percentage of peak; the X-axis is
percentage of time.

Average Annual Energy:


Average kWh consumption of energy in specific time duration.

Non-Coincident Peak Demand:


Average peak hourly demand regardless of the time of occurrence .

Maximum Demand:
The maximum diversified demand of the energy consumed for specific
time periods.

Load Factor (LF):


Ratio of average energy for the year (annual kWh/8760) to peak
demand .

Coincident Factor (CF):


Ratio of maximum demand to the non-coincident peak. A related
measure is the diversity factor, which is the reciprocal of the
coincidence factor.

Site Non-Coincident Peak Demand:


Average peak hour demand regardless of the time of occurrence .

Group Diversified Peak Demand:


2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

The maximum, simultaneous, hourly demand of all sites for that


month; it is determined by averaging demand of the sites hour by hour
and then finding the maximum demand for the group.

(4.0)Forecasting Methodology:

Forecasting is simply a systematic procedure for quantitatively


defining future loads. Depending on the time period of interest, a
specific forecasting procedure may be classified as a short term,
intermediate or long term technique.

Because system planning is our basic concern and because planning


for the flow generation, transmission and distribution facilities must
begin 4 - 10 year in advance of the actual in service data, we shall be
concerned with the methodology of intermediate-range forecasting.

For simplicity, the word “Forecast” will usually imply an intermediate


range forecast.

Forecasting techniques may be divided into 3 broad classes.


Techniques may be used on extrapolation or correlation or a
combination of both. Techniques may be further classified as
deterministic, probabilistic, or stochastic.

(4.1)Extrapolation:

Extrapolation techniques involve fitting trend curves to basic historical


data adjusted to
reflect the growth. It produces reasonable results in many cases.

Such a technique is to be classified as a deterministic extrapolation,


since no attempt is made to account for random errors in the data or in
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

the analytical model. Some standard analytical functions are used in


trend curves fitting, including:

1. Straight line =a+bx



Y
2. Parabola = a + b x + cx2

Y

The most common curve - fitting technique for finding coefficients of


function in a given forecast is the method of least squares as will be
discussed later

(4.2)Correlation:

Correlation techniques are used to relate system loads to various


demographic and economic factors. This approach has an advantage
of forcing the forecast to understand clearly the interrelationship
between load growth patterns and other measurable factors. The most
obvious disadvantage, however results from the need to forecast
demographic and economic factors, which can be more difficult than
forecasting system load. Typically, these factors may be population,
employment, building permits saturation and business indicators.

(5.0)Method of Calculation:
(5.1) Simple Regression:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Regression in general is a relationship between the variable we want to


forecast (dependant) and another variable (independent).

Or, we can say

Y = f (x)

If the independent variable is time, then we call it simple time-series


regression, and simple refers to a single independent variable.

In a simple regression the relationship is assumed linear, i.e.

Ŷ=a+bt

The principle of regression theory is that, any function Ŷ = f (x) can be


fitted to a set of data points so as to minimize the sum of errors
squared at each data point and this type of fitting is called least square
fit in which the objective is to:

Minimum
n
∑[Yi − f ( xi )]2 =
i =1

Where n is the number of data points

(5.2) Linear Regression:


2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Y = f ( x)
^
Y = a + bt
n ^
e 2 = ∑ (Y − Y ) 2
i =0
n
e 2 = ∑ [Y − (a + bt)]2
i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt)](−1) = 0
∂a i =0
n n n
∑ Y = ∑ a + ∑ bt
i =0 i =0 i =0

Or
n n
∑ Y = na + ∑ bt
i=0 i=0

∂e 2 n
= 2 ∑ [Y − (a + bt)](−1) = 0
∂b i =0
n n n
∑ tY = ∑ at + ∑ bt 2
i=0 i=0 i=0

 n  n 
n

∑t  ∑Y 
 a i =0 
i=0
 n  ⋅   =  n 
 t
n
2   
b  
∑ ∑t   ∑ tY 
i = 0 i=0  i =0 
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

(5.3)Quadratic Regression:

Y = f ( x)
^
Y = a + bt + ct 2
n ^
e 2 = ∑ (Y − Y ) 2
i =0
n
e 2 = ∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )]2
i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )](−1) = 0
∂a i =0
n n
∑ Y = ∑ a + bt + ct 2
i =0 i =0
n n n
∑ Y = na + b∑ t + c∑ t 2
i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )](−t ) = 0
∂b i =0
n n n n
∑ tY = a∑ t + b∑ t 2 + c∑ t 3
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 )](−t 2 ) = 0
∂c i =0
n n n n
∑ t 2Y = a ∑ t 2 + b ∑ t 3 + c ∑ t 4
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

 n n
2  n 
n

∑t ∑  t   ∑Y 
 i =0 
i =o i =0
 n   a   
3   
n n n
 t
∑ ∑t2 ∑ t  ⋅  b  =  ∑ tY 
  c   n
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
 n n n

 4  2 
∑t ∑t3 ∑t  ∑t Y 
2

 i =0 i =0 i =0   i =0 

(5.4)Polynomial Regression:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Y = f ( x)
^
Y = a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3
n ^
e 2 = ∑ (Y − Y ) 2
i =0
n
e 2 = ∑ [Y − ( a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )]2
i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−1) = 0
∂a i =0
n n
∑ Y = ∑ a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3
i =0 i =0
n n n n
∑ Y = na + b∑ t + c∑ t 2 + d ∑ t 3
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−t ) = 0
∂b i =0
n n n n n
∑ tY = a∑ t + b∑ t 2 + c∑ t 3 + d ∑ t 4
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−t 2 ) = 0
∂c i =0
n n n n n
∑ t 2Y = a ∑ t 2 + b ∑ t 3 + c ∑ t 4 + d ∑ t 5
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2
∂e n
= 2∑ [Y − (a + bt + ct 2 + dt 3 )](−t 3 )
∂d i =0
n n n n n
∑ t Y = a∑ t
3 3
+ b∑ t + c ∑ t + d ∑ t 6
4 5

i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

 n n n   n 
n

∑t ∑t 2
∑t  3
  ∑Y 
 i =0 
i =o i =0 i =0
 n n n n   n 
 t 4  a  
∑ ∑t2 ∑ t3 ∑ t   b   ∑ tY 
i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0   i =0
 n ⋅  =  n 
5  c  
n n n
 2 
∑t ∑ t3 ∑t4 ∑ t   d   ∑ t Y 
2

 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0
  i =0 
 n 3 n n n   n
3 
∑t ∑t4 ∑ t5 ∑t6  ∑t Y 
 i =0 i =0 i =0 i =0   i =0 
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

(6.0)Practical Example of ELF:

The load forecasting of a new area is to be considered. This area


consists of several zones, each of a known area:

(1)Agriculture.

(2) Residential.

(3) City center.

(4) Light industrial.

(5) Heavy industrial.

The area under study is given below:


2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Fig. 2.8:Area under study

(6.1) Agriculture region:

year t y t2 t3 t4 y*t y *t2

1999 1 66.67 1 1 1 66.67 66.67

2000 2 66.67 4 8 16 133.34 266.68

2001 3 72.22 9 27 81 216.66 649.98

2002 4 72.22 16 64 256 288.88 1155.52

2003 5 77.78 25 125 625 388.9 1944.5

2004 6 83.33 36 216 1296 499.98 2999.88

2005 7 86.67 49 343 2401 606.69 4246.83

2006 8 88.89 64 512 4096 711.12 5688.96


2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

2007 9 92.22 81 729 6561 829.98 7469.82

Σ(y * Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 t) t2 )

706.6 3742. 24488.


45 7 285 2025 15333 22 84

Table 2.1

(6.1.1) linear yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t model:

Where a o & a1 are computed constants as :

 n

∑ t  * a  =  ∑ y 
0

∑ t ∑ t   a  ∑ ( y * t )
2
1
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Therefore: a =61.11305556, a1=3.481166667


o

year t y y^ e e2

64.5942 2.07577 4.30885


1999 1 66.67 2 8 3

68.0753 - 1.97511
2000 2 66.67 9 1.40539 8

71.5565 0.66344 0.44015


2001 3 72.22 6 4 9

75.0377 - 7.93955
2002 4 72.22 2 2.81772 9

78.5188 - 0.54595
2003 5 77.78 9 0.73889 7

82.0000 1.32994 1.76875


2004 6 83.33 6 4 2

85.4812 1.18877 1.41319


2005 7 86.67 2 8 3

88.9623 -
2006 8 88.89 9 0.07239 0.00524

92.4435 - 0.04997
2007 9 92.22 6 0.22356 7

Σe2

18.4468
1

Table 2.2
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

(6.1.2)Quadratic model:

yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t + a 2 * t 2

Where
 n

∑t ∑t 2
 a 0   ∑ y 
    
 ∑t ∑t ∑t  *  a1  =  ∑( y * t ) 
2 3

∑t 2 ∑t ∑t  a 2  ∑( y * t ) 


3 4  2 

Therefore

a =62.43785714 , a1=2.758547619 , a2=0.07226190476


o

year t y y^ e e2

65.2686 1.40133 1.96373


1999 1 66.67 7 3 5

2.47747
2000 2 66.67 68.244 -1.574 6

71.3638 0.85614 0.73298


2001 3 72.22 6 3 1

74.6282 - 5.79961
2002 4 72.22 4 2.40824 1

78.0371 - 0.06612
2003 5 77.78 4 0.25714 2
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

81.5905 1.73942 3.02561


2004 6 83.33 7 9 2

85.2885 1.38147 1.90847


2005 7 86.67 2 6 6

0.05808
2006 8 88.89 89.131 -0.241 1

0.80640
2007 9 92.22 93.118 -0.898 4

Σe2

16.8385

Table 2.3

From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model, therefore:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12


Table 2.4
year t

65.268
1999 1 67

2000 2 68.244
For 2017: Load
71.363
(MVA) =140.368 2001 3 86
MVA
74.628
2002 4 24
(6.2)Residenti
78.037
al region: 2003 5 14

81.590
2004 6 57

85.288
year t y 2005 t 2 7t 3 52t4 y*t y *t2

1999 1 118 2006 1 8 89.131


1 1 118 118

2000 2 120 2007 4 9 93.118


8 16 240 480
97.249 81
2001 3 125 9 27 375 1125
2008 10 52
2002 4 125 16 64 256 500 2000
101.52
2003 5 130 2009 25 11 125 56 625 650 3250

2004 6 140 36 105.941296


216 840 5040
2010 12 61
2005 7 150 49 343 2401 1050 7350
110.51
2006 8 160 2011 64 13 512 124096 1280 10240

2007 9 170 81 729115.226561 1530 13770


2012 14 09
Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 Σ(y * Σ(y *
Σt 120.07 t) t2 )
2013 15 5
45 1238 285 2025 15333 6583 43373
125.07
2014 16 37 Table 2.5
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

(6.2.1) linear yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t model:

Where a o & a1 are computed constants as :

 n

∑ t  * a  =  ∑ y 
0

∑ t ∑ t   a  ∑ ( y * t )
2
1

Therefore: a o =104.80555556 , a1=6.55

year t y y^ e e2

111.35 6.6444 44.148


1999 1 118 56 44 64

2000 2 120 117.90 2.0944 4.3866


2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

56 44 97

124.45 0.5444 0.2964


2001 3 125 56 44 2

-
131.00 6.0055 36.066
2002 4 125 56 6 7

-
137.55 7.5555 57.086
2003 5 130 56 6 42

-
144.10 4.1055 16.855
2004 6 140 56 6 59

-
150.65 0.6555 0.4297
2005 7 150 56 6 53

157.20 2.7944 7.8089


2006 8 160 56 44 2

163.75 6.2444 38.993


2007 9 170 56 44 09

Σe2

206.07
22

Table 2.6

(6.2.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a0 + a1 * t + a2 * t 2

 n

∑t ∑t 2
 a 0   ∑ y 
3    
 ∑t ∑t ∑t  *  a1  =  ∑( y * t ) 
2

∑t 2 ∑t ∑t  a 2  ∑( y * t ) 


3 4  2 

2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Where

Therefore a =119.0714286 , a1= -1.231385281 , a2=0.7781385281


o

year t y y^ e e2

118.618 - 0.38214
1999 1 118 2 0.61818 9

119.721 0.27878 0.07772


2000 2 120 2 8 3

122.380 6.86167
2001 3 125 5 2.61948 8

126.596 2.54754
2002 4 125 1 -1.5961 8

-
2003 5 130 132.368 2.36797 5.60726

139.696 0.30389 0.09235


2004 6 140 1 6 3

148.580 2.01492
2005 7 150 5 1.41948 5

159.021 0.97878 0.95802


2006 8 160 2 8 6

171.018 - 1.03669
2007 9 170 2 1.01818 4

Σe2

19.5783
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

Table 2.7

From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model, therefore :
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

year t y^

118.618
1999 1 2

119.721
2000 2 2

122.380
2001 3 5

126.596
2002 4 1

2003 5 132.368

139.696
2004 6 1

148.580
2005 7 5

159.021
2006 8 2

171.018
2007 9 2

184.571
2008 10 4

2009 11 199.681

216.346
2010 12 8

234.568
2011 13 8

254.347
2012 14 2

275.681
Table 2.8
2013 15 8

298.572
2014 16 7

323.019
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

For 2017: Load (MVA) =376.5831 MVA

(6.3) City Center:

year t y t2 t3 t4 y*t y *t2

466.6
1999 1 7 1 1 1 466.67 466.67

488.8
2000 2 9 4 8 16 977.78 1955.56

555.5
2001 3 6 9 27 81 1666.68 5000.04

2002 4 555 16 64 256 2220 8880

588.8 14722.2
2003 5 9 25 125 625 2944.45 5

622.2 22399.9
2004 6 2 36 216 1296 3733.32 2

2005 7 661.1 49 343 2401 4627.7 32393.9

2006 8 700 64 512 4096 5600 44800

744.4 60299.6
2007 9 4 81 729 6561 6699.96 4

Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 Σ(y * t) t2 )

5382.7 28936.5
45 7 285 2025 15333 6 190918

Table 2.9
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

(6.3.1) linear yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t model:

Where a o & a1 are computed constants as :

 n

∑ t  * a  =  ∑ y 
0

∑ t ∑ t   a  ∑ ( y * t )
2
1

Therefore: a o = 429.5263889, a1= 33.71183333

year t y y^ e e2

466.6 463.23 3.43427 11.7942


1999 1 7 6 8 6
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

488.8 496.94 -
2000 2 9 8 8.05756 64.9242

555.5 530.65 24.9006 620.040


2001 3 6 9 1 4

564.37 - 87.8198
2002 4 555 1 9.37122 1

588.8 598.08 - 84.5122


2003 5 9 3 9.19306 7

622.2 631.79 -
2004 6 2 5 9.57489 91.6785

665.50 -
2005 7 661.1 7 4.40672 19.4192

699.21 0.78144 0.61065


2006 8 700 9 4 5

744.4 11.5096 132.471


2007 9 4 732.93 1 1

Σe2

1113.27

Table 2.10

(6.3.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t + a 2 * t 2
Where

 n

∑t ∑t 2
 a 0   ∑ y 
    
 ∑t ∑t ∑t  *  a1  =  ∑( y * t ) 
2 3

∑t 2 ∑t ∑t  a 2  ∑( y * t ) 


3 4  2 

2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Therefore a =443.6035714, a1= 26.03337013, a2=0.7678453203


o

year t y y^ e e2

466.6 470.40 - 13.9486


1999 1 7 5 3.73479 4

488.8 498.74 97.0559


2000 2 9 2 -9.8517 3

555.5 528.61 726.070


2001 3 6 4 26.9457 8

560.02 - 25.2264
2002 4 555 3 5.02259 4

588.8 592.96 -
2003 5 9 7 4.07658 16.6185

622.2 627.44 - 27.3137


2004 6 2 6 5.22626 9

663.46 - 5.57730
2005 7 661.1 2 2.36163 6

701.01 1.02555
2006 8 700 3 -1.0127 5

744.4 740.09 4.34054 18.8403


2007 9 4 9 5 4

Σe2

931.677
3

Table 2.11
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model,


therefore

year t y^

470.404
1999 1 8

498.741
2000 2 7

528.614
2001 3 3

560.022
2002 4 6

592.966
2003 5 6

627.446
2004 6 3

663.461
2005 7 6

701.012
2006 8 7

740.099
2007 9 5

780.721
2008 10 9

2009 11 822.88

866.573
2010 12 9

911.803
2011 13 4
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

958.568
2012 14 6

2013 15 1006.87

1056.70
2014 16 6

1108.07
2015 17 8

1160.98
2016 18 6

2017 19 1215.43

Table 2.12

For 2017: Load (MVA) =1215.43 MVA

(6.4)Light Industries:

year t y t2 t3 t4 y*t y *t2

1999 1 118 1 1 1 118 118

2000 2 120 4 8 16 240 480

2001 3 125 9 27 81 375 1125

2002 4 125 16 64 256 500 2000

2003 5 130 25 125 625 650 3250

2004 6 140 36 216 1296 840 5040


2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

2005 7 145 49 343 2401 1015 7105

2006 8 150 64 512 4096 1200 9600

2007 9 155 81 729 6561 1395 12555

Σ(y * Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4
t) t2 )

45 1208 285 2025 15333 6333 41273

Table 2.13

(6.4.1)Linear model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t

Where a o & a1 are computed constants as :

 n

∑ t  * a  =  ∑ y 
0

∑ t ∑ t   a  ∑ ( y * t )
2
1
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

Therefore: a o = 109.8055556, a1= 4.88333

year t y y^ e e2

114.688 3.31111 10.9634


1999 1 118 9 4 8

119.572 0.42778 0.18299


2000 2 120 2 4 9

124.455 0.54445 0.29643


2001 3 125 5 4 1

129.338 - 18.8258
2002 4 125 9 4.33888 4

134.222 - 17.8270
2003 5 130 2 4.22221 2

139.105 0.89446 0.80006


2004 6 140 5 4 7

143.988 1.01113 1.02239


2005 7 145 9 4 3

148.872 1.12780 1.27194


2006 8 150 2 4 3

153.755 1.24447 1.54871


2007 9 155 5 4 7

Σe2

52.7388
9

Table 2.14
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

(6.4.2)Quadratic model:

yˆ = a0 + a1 * t + a2 * t 2

Where

 n

∑t ∑t 2
 a 0   ∑ y 
    
 ∑t ∑t ∑t  *  a1  =  ∑( y * t ) 
2 3

∑t 2 ∑t ∑t  a 2  ∑( y * t ) 


3 4  2 

Therefore a =115.142857 , a1= 1.972077922 , a2=0.2911255411


o

year t y y^ e e2

117.406 0.59393 0.35276


1999 1 118 1 9 4

120.251 -
2000 2 120 5 0.25152 0.06326

123.679 1.32077 1.74445


2001 3 125 2 9 8

127.689 - 7.23167
2002 4 125 2 2.68918 5

132.281 - 5.20471
2003 5 130 4 2.28139 9

137.455 2.54415 6.47272


2004 6 140 8 6 9

143.212 1.78744 3.19496


2005 7 145 6 6 3
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

149.551 0.44848 0.20113


2006 8 150 5 5 9

156.472 - 2.16892
2007 9 155 7 1.47273 5

Σe2

26.6346
3

Table 2.15

From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model,


therefore:

year t y^

117.406
1999 1 1

120.251
2000 2 5

123.679
2001 3 2

127.689
2002 4 2

132.281
2003 5 4

137.455
2004 6 8

143.212
2005 7 6

149.551
2006 8 5

2007 9 156.472
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

163.976
2008 10 2

172.061
2009 11 9

180.729
2010 12 9

189.980
2011 13 1

199.812
2012 14 6

210.227
2013 15 3

221.224
2014 16 2

232.803
2015 17 5

244.964
2016 18 9

257.708
2017 19 7

Table 2.16

For 2017: Load (MVA) =257.7087 MVA

(6.5)Heavy Industrial:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

year t y t2 t3 t4 y*t y *t2

194.117 194.117 194.117


1999 1 6 1 1 1 6 6

217.647 435.294 870.588


2000 2 1 4 8 16 1 2

247.058 741.176 2223.52


2001 3 8 9 27 81 5 9

270.588 1082.35 4329.41


2002 4 2 16 64 256 3 2

282.352 1411.76 7058.82


2003 5 9 25 125 625 5 4

311.764 1870.58 11223.5


2004 6 7 36 216 1296 8 3

335.294 2347.05 16429.4


2005 7 1 49 343 2401 9 1

358.823 2870.58 22964.7


2006 8 5 64 512 4096 8 1

382.352 3441.17 30970.5


2007 9 9 81 729 6561 6 9

Σ(y *
Σt Σy Σt2 Σt3 Σt4 Σ(y * t) t2)

14394.1 96264.7
45 2600 285 2025 15333 2 1

Table 2.17
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

(6.5.1)Linear model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t

Where a o & a1 are computed constants as :

 n

∑ t  * a  =  ∑ y 
0

∑ t ∑ t   a  ∑ ( y * t )
2
1

Therefore: a o = 172.172, a1= 23.2353

Year t y y^ e e2

194.117 195.407 - 1.66423


1999 1 6 7 1.29005 6

217.647 - 0.99188
2000 2 1 218.643 0.99593 2

247.058 241.878
2001 3 8 3 5.18054 26.838
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

270.588 265.113 29.9719


2002 4 2 6 5.47466 1

282.352 288.348 - 35.9511


2003 5 9 9 5.99593 2

311.764 311.584 0.18054 0.03259


2004 6 7 2 8 7

335.294 334.819 0.47466 0.22530


2005 7 1 4 8 9

358.823 358.054 0.76878 0.59103


2006 8 5 7 8 5

382.352 1.06290 1.12977


2007 9 9 381.29 8 3

Σe2

97.395
86

Table 2.18

(6.5.2)Quadratic model:
yˆ = a 0 + a1 * t + a 2 * t 2

Where
 n

∑t ∑t 2
 a 0   ∑ y 
    
 ∑t ∑t ∑t  *  a1  =  ∑( y * t ) 
2 3

∑t 2 ∑t ∑t  a 2  ∑( y * t ) 


3 4  2 

Therefore a =172.128831 , a1= 23.5536 , a2= - 0.03183


o
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

Year t y y^ e e2

194.117 195.650 - 2.34996


1999 1 6 6 1.53296 3

217.647 219.108 - 2.13644


2000 2 1 7 1.46166 8

247.058 242.503 4.55565


2001 3 8 2 6 20.754

270.588 4.75428
2002 4 2 265.834 2 22.6032

282.352 289.101 - 45.5373


2003 5 9 1 6.74814 3

311.764 312.304 - 0.29141


2004 6 7 5 0.53983 7

335.294 335.444 - 0.02256


2005 7 1 3 0.15022 5

358.823 358.520 0.30306 0.09184


2006 8 5 5 1 6

382.352 381.532 0.82000 0.67240


2007 9 9 9 2 3

Σe2

94.459
17

Table 2.19

From Least Squared Error Criteria we will use Quadratic model,


therefore :

Year t ŷ
2 Electrical Load Forecasting11

195.650
1999 1 6

219.108
2000 2 7

242.503
2001 3 2

2002 4 265.834

289.101
2003 5 1

312.304
2004 6 5

335.444
2005 7 3

358.520
2006 8 5

381.532
2007 9 9

404.481
2008 10 7

427.366
2009 11 9

450.188
2010 12 4

472.946
2011 13 2

495.640
2012 14 4

518.270
2013 15 8

2014 16 540.837
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

563.340
2015 17 8

585.780
2016 18 3

608.156
2017 19 2

Table 2.20

For 2017:Load (MVA) =608.1562 MVA

(6.6)The Final Forecasted Load Density for year


2017:
2 Electrical Load Forecasting12

Heavy Light City


Agriculture Residential
Industries Industries Center

1215.4
Load(MVA) 140.9368 376.5831 608.1562 257.7087
3

Area(Km2) 125 112.5 37.5 37.5 187.5

Load
Density(MVA/KM 1.1275 3.3474 16.2175 6.872 6.4823
2
)

Table 2.21

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