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North Carolina Department of Commerce - Labor and Economic Analysis Division

News

Release

For More Information, Contact:


Larry Parker/919.707.1010

For Immediate Release


August 18, 2014

North Carolinas July Employment Figures Released


RALEIGH The states seasonally adjusted July unemployment rate was 6.5 percent, increasing 0.1 of a percentage point from Junes revised rate of 6.4 percent. The national rate increased 0.1 of a percentage point to 6.2
percent.
North Carolinas July 2014 unemployment rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than a year ago. The number of
people employed decreased 19,848 over the month to 4,369,632, and increased 59,498 over the year. The number
of people unemployed increased 5,298 over the month to 304,484, and declined 77,720 over the year.
Seasonally adjusted Total Nonfarm industry employment, as gathered through the monthly establishment survey,
increased 15,800 to 4,139,800 in July. The major industry with the largest over-the-month increase was Professional
& Business Services at 4,800, followed by Government, 4,300; Trade, Transportation & Utilities, 3,300; Other
Services, 2,200; Construction, 2,100; Information, 2,000; and Manufacturing, 700. Major industries experiencing decreases were Education & Health Services, 1,600; Financial Activities, 1,300; and Leisure & Hospitality
Services, 700. Mining & Logging employment remained unchanged over the month.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates Since July 2013
July
2013

Aug.
2013

Sept.
2013

Oct.
2013

Nov.
2013

Dec.
2013

Jan.
2014

Feb.
2014

Mar.
2014

Apr.
2014

May
2014

June
2014

July
2014

N.C.

8.1

8.0

7.7

7.5

7.2

6.9

6.7

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.4

6.4

6.5

U.S.

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.2

7.0

6.7

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.3

6.3

6.1

6.2

*2013 Numbers Have Been Annually Revised*

Since July 2013, Total Nonfarm jobs gained 89,000 with the Total Private sector growing by 93,900 and Government declining by 4,900. The largest over-the-year increase of major industries was Professional & Business
Services at 38,700, followed by Trade, Transportation & Utilities, 22,100; Leisure & Hospitality Services, 8,800;
Construction, 7,800; Other Services, 5,100; Education & Health Services, 4,700; Information, 4,200; Financial
Activities, 1,300; Manufacturing, 1,000; and Mining & Logging, 200. The only major industry experiencing a
decrease over the year was Government, 4,900.
The next unemployment update is scheduled for Wednesday, August 27, 2014 when the county unemployment
rates for July 2014 will be released.
More
This information may be accessed on the DES World Wide Web page, at http://www.ncesc.com

North Carolina data is embargoed until 10:00 A.M., Monday August 18, 2014

July 2014

June 2014

Numeric
Change

July 2013

Month Ago
Percent
Change

Numeric
Change

Year Ago
Percent
Change

North Carolina
(Local Area Unemployment Statistics)
Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted
Labor Force

4,674,116

4,688,666

4,692,338

-14,550

-0.3

-18,222

-0.4

Employed

4,369,632

4,389,480

4,310,134

-19,848

-0.5

59,498

1.4

304,484

299,186

382,204

5,298

1.8

-77,720

-20.3

6.5

6.4

8.1

0.1

xxx

-1.6

xxx

Labor Force

4,721,006

4,691,666

4,748,666

29,340

0.6

-27,660

-0.6

Employed

4,396,729

4,388,891

4,348,543

7,838

0.2

48,186

1.1

324,277

302,775

400,123

21,502

7.1

-75,846

-19.0

6.9

6.5

8.4

0.4

xxx

-1.5

xxx

Labor Force

156,023,000

155,694,000

155,693,000

329,000

0.2

xxx

xxx

Employed

146,352,000

146,221,000

144,285,000

131,000

0.1

xxx

xxx

9,671,000

9,474,000

11,408,000

197,000

2.1

xxx

xxx

6.2

6.1

7.3

0.1

xxx

xxx

xxx

Labor Force

157,573,000

156,997,000

157,196,000

576,000

0.4

xxx

xxx

Employed

147,265,000

147,104,000

145,113,000

161,000

0.1

xxx

xxx

10,307,000

9,893,000

12,083,000

414,000

4.2

xxx

xxx

6.5

6.3

7.7

0.2

xxx

xxx

xxx

Unemployed
Unemployment Rate
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployed
Unemployment Rate
United States
(Current Population Survey)
Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployed
Unemployment Rate
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployed
Unemployment Rate

*Effective January 2014, updated US population estimates are used in the national labor force estimates,
The annual population adjustments affect the comparability of national labor force estimates over time.
2014 estimates for the current month are preliminary. Estimates for the previous month have undergone monthly revision.
2013 estimates have undergone annual revision.

North Carolina data is embargoed until 10:00 A.M., Monday, August 18, 2014
Month Ago
July 2014

June 2014

Numeric
Change

July 2013

Year Ago

Percent
Change

Numeric
Change

Percent
Change

North Carolina
(Current Employment Statistics)
Seasonally Adjusted
Total Nonfarm

4,139,800

4,124,000

4,050,800

15,800

0.4

89,000

2.2

Total Private

3,434,600

3,423,100

3,340,700

11,500

0.3

93,900

2.8

5,600

5,600

5,400

0.0

200

3.7

Construction

180,900

178,800

173,100

2,100

1.2

7,800

4.5

Manufacturing

443,800

443,100

442,800

700

0.2

1,000

0.2

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

778,000

774,700

755,900

3,300

0.4

22,100

2.9

Mining & Logging

73,800

71,800

69,600

2,000

2.8

4,200

6.0

Financial Activities

208,700

210,000

207,400

-1,300

-0.6

1,300

0.6

Professional & Business Services

587,200

582,400

548,500

4,800

0.8

38,700

7.1

Education & Health Services

564,000

565,600

559,300

-1,600

-0.3

4,700

0.8

Leisure & Hospitality Services

439,000

439,700

430,200

-700

-0.2

8,800

2.0

Other Services

153,600

151,400

148,500

2,200

1.5

5,100

3.4

Government

705,200

700,900

710,100

4,300

0.6

-4,900

-0.7

Total Nonfarm

4,074,800

4,137,600

3,980,900

-62,800

-1.5

93,900

2.4

Total Private

3,466,000

3,454,300

3,365,500

11,700

0.3

100,500

3.0

5,700

5,600

5,500

100

1.8

200

3.6

Construction

183,800

180,800

176,300

3,000

1.7

7,500

4.3

Manufacturing

444,500

444,900

444,000

-400

-0.1

500

0.1

Trade, Transportation & Utilities

780,400

776,600

758,500

3,800

0.5

21,900

2.9

74,200

72,100

70,000

2,100

2.9

4,200

6.0

Financial Activities

213,500

213,400

209,400

100

<0.1

4,100

2.0

Professional & Business Services

588,800

586,200

548,000

2,600

0.4

40,800

7.4

Education & Health Services

558,400

560,500

552,800

-2,100

-0.4

5,600

1.0

Leisure & Hospitality Services

461,200

460,000

450,200

1,200

0.3

11,000

2.4

Other Services

155,500

154,200

150,800

1,300

0.8

4,700

3.1

Government

608,800

683,300

615,400

-74,500

-10.9

-6,600

-1.1

$16.79

$16.68

$16.68

42.7

43.8

41.0

Information

North Carolina
(Current Employment Statistics)
Not Seasonally Adjusted

Mining & Logging

Information

Mfg. Production Workers (PW) Not Seasonally Adjusted


Mfg. PW Average Hourly Earnings
Mfg. PW Hours Worked

All 2014 Labor Force and CES data for the current month are preliminary.
All 2013 Labor Force and CES estimates have been benchmarked.
Estimates may not add to totals due to rounding.

J u l y
2014

North Carolina
Labor Market Conditions

The North Carolina smoothed seasonally adjusted unemployment


rate was 6.5 percent in July, increasing 0.1 of a percentage point
from the previous month, and falling 1.6 percentage points from
July 2013. Over the month, the number of persons unemployed
grew by 5,298 (1.8%). The civilian labor force decreased by
14,550 (0.3%) to 4,674,116.

United States/North Carolina Unemployment Rates


July 2013July 2014
(Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted**)

9.0
8.0

Percent

7.0 7.3
6.0

8.1

8.0
7.2

7.2

7.7

7.2

7.5

7.0 7.2

6.7 6.9 6.6 6.7 6.7

6.4

6.7

5.0

6.3 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.5

4.0

Seasonally adjusted Total Nonfarm industry employment


(4,139,800) has increased 15,800 (0.4%) since June 2014, and
89,000 (2.2%) since July 2013.1 Private sector employment
grew over the month by 11,500 (0.3%) and 93,900 (2.8%) over
the year.

3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014
United States

North Carolina

**US data are not smoothed.

North Carolina Total Nonfarm Employment


July 2013July 2014
(Seasonally Adjusted)

4,140
4,120
4,100
In Thousands

Nationally, Julys unemployment rate was 6.2 percent. The


number of persons unemployed was 9,671,000, while the
civilian labor force was 156,023,000.

4,080
4,060
4,040
4,020
4,000

July
2013

Aug.
2013

Sept.
2013

Oct.
2013

Nov.
2013

Dec.
2013

Jan.
2014

Feb.
2014

March
2014

April
2014

May
2014

June
2014

July
2014

Of the major industries for which payroll data are seasonally


adjusted, Professional & Business Services had the largest
over-the-month gain in jobs (4,800; 0.8%), followed by
Government (4,300; 0.6%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities
(3,300; 0.4%), Other Services (2,200; 1.5%), Construction
(2,100; 1.2%), Information (2,000; 2.8%) and Manufacturing
(700; 0.2%). Education & Health Services (1,600; 0.3%) had
the largest over-the-month decrease, followed by Financial
Activities (1,300; 0.6%) and Leisure & Hospitality Services (700;
0.2%). Mining & Logging remained unchanged over the month.
Since July 2013, Professional & Business Services added
the largest number of jobs (38,700; 7.1%), followed by Trade,
Transportation & Utilities (22,100; 2.9%), Leisure & Hospitality
Services (8,800; 2.0%), Construction (7,800; 4.5%), Other
Services (5,100; 3.4%), Education & Health Services (4,700;
0.8%), Information (4,200; 6.0%), Financial Activities (1,300;
0.6%), Manufacturing (1,000; 0.2%) and Mining & Logging (200;
3.7%). Government was the only industry to report a loss over
the year at 4,900 (0.7%).
1
It is important to note that industry employment estimates are subject to large
seasonal patterns. Seasonal adjustment factors are applied to the data. However, these
factors may not be fully capturing the seasonal trend. Therefore, when interpreting the
changes in industry employment, it is advisable to focus on over-the-year changes in both
the seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted series.

Changes in Employment by NAICS Industries


July 2013 Compared to July 2014
(Seasonally Adjusted)

900

+22.1

800

-4.9

In Thousands

700

+38.7

600

+4.7

+1.0

500

+8.8

400
300
200

+1.3

+7.8

+5.1

+4.2

100
Construcon

Manufacturing

Trade,
Transportaon
& Ulies

Informaon

Financial
Acvies
July 2013

Professional
& Business
Services

Educaon &
Health
Services

Leisure &
Hospitality
Services

Other Services

Government

July 2014

*NC current month data are preliminary, while other 2014 data are revised and 2013 data have undergone annual revision. US 2014 data reflect new population estimates,
while previous years data have undergone annual revision.

Labor & Economic Analysis Division | North Carolina Department of Commerce | 1 of 2

North Carolina Labor Market Conditions

Over the year, the Service Providing sector (all industries


except Mining & Logging, Construction, and Manufacturing)
showed an increase of 85,700 (2.6%) jobs. Professional &
Business Services experienced the largest employment
increase with 40,800 (7.4%), followed by Trade,
Transportation & Utilities (21,900; 2.9%), Leisure &
Hospitality Services (11,000; 2.4%), Education & Health
Services (5,600; 1.0%), Other Services (4,700; 3.1%),
Information (4,200; 6.0%) and Financial Activities (4,100;
2.0%). Government (6,600; 1.1%) had the only over-the-year
decrease.
The Goods Producing sector increased by 8,200 (1.3%)
jobs over the year. Construction experienced the largest
employment increase with 7,500 (4.3%), followed by
Manufacturing (500; 0.1%) and Mining & Logging (200; 3.6%).
Food had the largest amount of manufacturing employment
with 52,000 in July 2014. Both Furniture & Related Product
and Transportation Equipment had the largest net over-theyear increases at 1,400. Other manufacturing industries with
over-the-year gains were: Chemical, 1,200; Wood Product,
1,100; Fabricated Metal Product, 600; and Machinery, 200.
Average Weekly Hours for manufacturing production workers
in July decreased 66 minutes from Junes revised rate of
43.8. Average Hourly Earnings grew by $0.11 to $16.79, as
Average Weekly Earnings fell by $13.65 to $716.93.
Regular Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (UI)
totaled 23,532 in July, decreasing 677 from June. Less than 1
percent of Initial Claims for July 2014 were attached to a
payroll, meaning that employees expect to be recalled to their
jobs.
A total of $33,681,045 in regular UI benefits was paid in
July to 39,066 claimants statewide a decrease of 1,281
claimants since June 2014.
For the 12-month period ending July 2014, $643,871,213 was
paid from all programs, both state and federal. The UI Trust
Fund balance at the end of July was in the red
($894,478,016). The State Reserve Fund balance was
$39,983,689.

Selected Manufacturing Industries With Job Losses


July 2013July 2014
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

0.0

In Thousands

-0.1

-0.4

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7
-0.8
-1.0

Computer &
Electronic
Product

Beverage &
Tobacco
Product

Apparel

Texle Product Texle Mills


Food
Mills
Manufacturing

Selected Service Industries With Job Gains


July 2013July 2014
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)

30.0

27.5

25.0

In Thousands

The July 2014 not seasonally adjusted Total Nonfarm


employment level of 4,074,800 was 62,800 (1.5%) lower than
the June 2014 revised employment level of 4,137,600. Among
the major industries in North Carolina, Trade, Transportation
& Utilities had the largest over-the-month increase in
employment at 3,800 (0.5%), followed by Construction
(3,000; 1.7%), Professional & Business Services (2,600;
0.4%), Information (2,100; 2.9%), Other Services (1,300;
0.8%), Leisure & Hospitality Services (1,200; 0.3%), Financial
Activities (100; <0.1%) and Mining & Logging (100; 1.8%).
Government (74,500; 10.9%) had the largest over-the-month
decrease, followed by Education & Health Services (2,100;
0.4%) and Manufacturing (400; 0.1%).

20.0
15.0

11.6

10.3

10.0

10.0

7.8
3.8

5.0
0.0

Admin &
Professional,
Waste Mgmt Scienc &
Tech.

Retail Trade

Accom. &
Food Services

Wholesale
Trade

Transportaon
& Ulies

UI Taxes Collected and NC Regular UI Benefits Paid


August 2013July 2014
$1,800,000,000

$1,629,979,387

$1,500,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$900,000,000

$614,392,067

$600,000,000
$300,000,000

$174,976

$0
UI Taxes Collected

UI Benets Paid

Interest Received

Labor & Economic Analysis Division | North Carolina Department of Commerce | 2 of 2

Technical Notes
Special NoteGeography Changes
On February 28, 2013, OMB announced revised delineations of Metropolitan Statistical Areas, Micropolitan Statistical Areas,
and Combined Statistical Areas. Bureau of Labor Statistics programs will implement these new delineations effective with
the following data releases:

LAUS: January 2015 substate data (anticipated release date: March 2015)
CES: 2014 benchmarked data (anticipated release date: March 2015)

At that time, data will be revised back to the series beginnings based on the new delineations.
Technical Notes
This release presents labor force and unemployment estimates from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. Also presented are nonfarm payroll employment estimates the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The
LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative endeavors.
Labor force and unemployment--from the LAUS program
Definitions. The labor force and unemployment estimates are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for
the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is
conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employment
and unemployment on a place-of-residence basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of
age and over. Employed persons are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (the week including
the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus those not working who
had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for such reasons as bad weather, labor-management
dispute, illness, or vacation. Unemployed persons are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on
the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and were
currently available for work; persons on lay-off expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed.
The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as
a percent of the labor force.
Method of estimation. Statewide estimates are produced using an estimation algorithm administered by the BLS. This
method, which underwent substantial enhancement at the beginning of 2005, utilizes data from several sources, including
the CPS, the CES, and state unemployment insurance (UI) programs. Each month, census division estimates are controlled
to national totals, and state estimates are then controlled to their respective division totals. Substate estimates are controlled
to their respective state totals. For more information about LAUS estimation procedures, see the BLS website at www.bls.
gov/lau/laumthd.htm
Revisions. Labor force and unemployment data for the previous month reflect adjustments made in each subsequent month,
while data for prior years reflect adjustments made at the end of each year. The monthly revisions incorporate updated model
inputs, while the annually revised estimates reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in
the other data sources, and model reestimation. In most years, historical data for the most recent five years (both seasonally
adjusted and not seasonally adjusted) are revised near the beginning of each calendar year, prior to the release of January
estimates.
Seasonal adjustment. The LAUS program introduced smoothed seasonally adjusted (SSA) estimates in January 2010. These
are seasonally-adjusted data that have incorporated a long-run trend smoothing procedure, resulting in estimates that are less
volatile than those previously produced. The estimates are smoothed using a filtering procedure, based on moving averages,
to remove the irregular fluctuations from the seasonally-adjusted series, leaving the trend. The same process is used on both
historical and current year estimates. For more information about the smoothing technique, see the BLS website at www.
bls.gov/lau/lassaqa.htm.

Area definitions. The substate area data published in this release reflect the standards and definitions established by the U.S.
Office of Management and Budget on December 1, 2009. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available online at
www.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm.
Employment--from the CES program
Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that
includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity
in accordance with the 2012 version of the North American Industry Classification System.
Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a weighted link relative estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted
employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting
for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the
previous months employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample
size meets certain statistical criteria.
For some employment series, relatively small sample sizes limit the reliability of the weighted link-relative estimates. In
these cases, BLS uses the CES small domain model (SDM) to generate employment estimates. The SDM combines the direct
sample estimates (described above) and forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease the volatility of the estimates.
For more detailed information about the CES small domain model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods.
Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived
principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws.
The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and
also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the
level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.
Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted at the statewide supersector level. In some states, the
seasonally adjusted payroll employment total is computed by aggregating the independently adjusted supersector series. In
other states, the seasonally adjusted payroll employment total is independently adjusted. Revisions of historical data for the
most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments.
Reliability of the estimates
The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject
to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability--that is, variation that occurs by
chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors,
such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from
sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used.
Model-based error measures for seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted data and for over-the-month and over-theyear changes to LAUS estimates are available online at www.bls.gov/lau/lastderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for state
CES data at the total nonfarm and supersector levels are available online at www.bls.gov/sae/790stderr.htm.
Release Dates
The next unemployment update is scheduled for Wednesday, August 27, 2014 when the county unemployment rates for July
2014 will be released.
The complete 2014 data release schedule can be accessed at:

http://www.nccommerce.com/Portals/47/Documents/2014_NC_Release_Dates.pdf