Balochistan: why India feels ‘concerned’

By Syed Fazl-e-Haider

BRITAIN’S prestigious weekly, The Economist,recently accused Washington and New

Delhi of “unwittingly” fuelling unrest in Balochistan in their quest for oil and gas. “The
neighbouring field of Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri contains oil and coal, but the
government has not dared to exploit it”, it said.

India has surprised Pakistan by resorting to what may be described interference in its
internal matters at a juncture when the two countries are moving fast through a peace
process to normalize their relations. It has shown its ‘concern’ over recent incidents of
violent clashes in Balochistan and asked Pakistan government to “exercise restraint.” In
reply to a question, India’s foreign office spokesman Navtej Sharma said that his country
had been watching the situation with concern. “We hope that the Government of Pakistan
will exercise restraint and take recourse to peaceful discussions to address the grievances
of the people of Balochistan.”

Meanwhile, B. Raman, a retired Indian bureaucrat who represents the views of hardline
anti-Pakistan lobby in South Block and runs a website on behalf of so-called ‘South Asia
Analysis Group’, recently said in an article: “The struggle for an independent Balochistan
is part of the unfinished agenda of the Partition. Due to reasons of realpolitik, we let them
down during their first war of independence. The same realpolitik would dictate painful
inaction by us now too. But that does not mean we should hesitate to draw the attention
of the international community to the ruthless massacre of Baloch nationalists by the
Pakistan army. We owe our moral support to them”.

What makes India feel disturbed over the present Balochistan situation can be seen from
a geopolitical perspective. How does a troubled and volatile Balochistan serve India’s
strategic interests? Is the politics of discouraging mega projects (particularly Gwadar
deep-water port project) part of India’s strategy to depreciate Pakistan’s strategic value in
the region?

Balochistan is located in a region of immense geo-political importance. The mega

projects, already launched or about to be launched, will open up the province to other
provinces and also to Central Asia in particular, turning it into a land of opportunities for
foreign investors. Hence, the attempts by certain elements to create a sense of insecurity
in the province by committing acts of violence only amounts to subverting the ongoing
development process and vitiating the atmosphere for foreign investment. Although the
first phase of Gwadar port was completed by Chinese engineers in November 2004 ahead
of schedule, its ground-breaking ceremony could not be held in January 2005, probably
owing to the deteriorating law and order situation. Later, the situation got worse.
India seems to be in a state of cold war with Pakistan ever since the latter launched the
Gwadar port project. India’s recent efforts for developing the North-South Transportation
Corridor (NSTC), the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Iran highway, a strategic road project
linking Tajikistan with Chahbahar via Afghanistan and its growing defence cooperation
with the Central Asian republics (CARs) are some of its projects to counter Pakistan’s
strategic interests. These projects are likely to suffer a setback as soon as Gwadar port
becomes operational and emerges as a key port in an area that marks the confluence of
South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia.

Central Asia is of great geo-economic importance to Pakistan. Gwadar port is being

developed with a huge investment of China. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has
announced a $300 million loan to finance road projects, which will connect the entire
region with this port. The goods produced in Pakistan can be exported to CARs through
these roads at much cheaper rates. India intends to deny Pakistan an easy access to
Central Asia. It is looking for alternative routes bypassing Pakistan to reach Afghanistan
and Central Asia.

In a bid to boost economic and trade ties with energy rich Central Asia, India plans to
actively participate in building trans-Afghanistan road and rail links between
Uzbekistan’s Termez to Iran’s Chahbahar port in the Gulf. It actually wants to
overshadow Pakistan’s transit route to the land-locked Afghanistan by constructing a
strategic road linking Kabul to Chahbahar.

Geographically, India faces a challenge in establishing an access to Central Asia. That is

why, India has been working with Iran to develop a north-south trade corridor, from
Central Asia to Afghanistan through Iran to Chahbahar port, from where goods could be
shipped by sea to these countries.

India has always been ambitious to dominate the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. It
sees such dominance imperative to pursue its hegemonistic designs in the region. It has
been involved in building up a navy, which exceeds its requirements. There is no denying
the fact that India’s expansionism have serious political, economic and military
implications for Pakistan. It is obvious that the construction of Gwadar port poses a threat
to India’s designs in the region.

As part of its policy of Islamabad’s containment, New Delhi is reluctant to go ahead with
the building of a gas pipeline either from Turkmenistan or from Iran through Pakistani
territory. India’s “concern” on the current situation (violent incidents between the
tribesmen and the security personnel) in Balochistan may be aimed at creating doubts
about the proposed trans-national gas pipeline projects. One may recall that soon after an
attack on gas facilities in Sui by tribesmen some months ago, the then Indian foreign
minister Natwar Singh had asked in a statement how Pakistan would ensure safety of the
proposed trilateral gas pipeline coming from Iran to his country when it was unable to
protect its own gas installations.

In Balochistan, there is apparently little opposition to the ongoing process of economic

development among common people for it is they who will benefit from it. The
opposition comes from a particular group of the sardars whose areas are the most under-
developed but contain large untapped oil and gas reserves. They resist development for
that can weaken the age-old tribal system and their social clout. But what helps them gain
legitimacy of their campaign for greater autonomy is the long history of neglect,
discrimination and injustice by Islamabad towards the legitimate interests of the province.
Hence, they are joined by the liberal and nationalist elements in opposing what is called
the centre’s “colonial approach.” That tends to create doubts in the population about the
intentions behind the development schemes launched by the regime. Even construction of
roads in remote tribal areas are seen as a conspiracy.

Military operations carried out in 1948, 1958, 1965 and 1973 have turned Balochistan
into an ‘over-sensitive’ province. But these operations were undertaken mostly for
political reasons, not for pursuing and protecting development projects which at present
amount to Rs 130 billion. Nor was the province’s enormous development potential and
geo-strategic location so discernible in the past to the outside world to lure foreign
investment as it is today.

There is a need to address genuine grievances, if any, of the stakeholders — private

sector, technical personnel, labourers, etc., — with regard to various projects. If local
elite of the areas, where some development activity is taking place, have certain
objections then these should be addressed and removed rather than be ignored or
suppressed by force. The government must take measures to remove the sense of
alienation, if any, of Baloch nationalists to bring them into mainstream politics, and
create local stakes in the province’s development.

Reports from Dera Bugti and Kohlu districts suggest a continued exchange of fire
between paramilitary forces and tribesmen resulting in increased casualties. This can help
external forces exploit the situation in their favour and carry on their propaganda. But this
can also slow down the pace of development or even lead to abandonment of some
projects in Balochistan. It is, therefore, in the interest of all stakeholders that recurring
incidents of violence be brought to an end and the disputes resolved through a dialogue.