Purba Das

NEW DELHI: The prices of pulses will not skyrocket unlike the onions even if El Nino (a
weather pattern) weighs on the monsoon this year. Contradicting Assochams report on pulses,
India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) has noted that it is too early to make any predictions
about the El Nino issue as it is yet to be confirmed with respect to its effect on monsoon in India.
The industry body in its report has stated that if there is a shortfall in rain, pulses production
will get severely hit and affect the households' budget the way onion brought tears to the
common-man in the recent past and may give pain to the stomach.
Indias pulses production is nearly around 18.60 million metric tonnes against the demand
of 22 million metric tonnes. The production has also witnessed a very slow growth of mere
4.7% (CAGR) in the last five years and the unseasonal rains are likely to impact the
output further this year, said Rana Kapoor, president of Assocham.
However, the traders association is of a different view on the issue. We do not believe that
the prices of pulses will skyrocket due to El Nino. Even if it does affect the Indian
monsoons, the deficit is not expected to be more than 5% to 10% and this deficit will not
have any major effect on the pulses crop, said Bimal Kothari, vice chairman of IPGA.
He further explained that even if there is El Nino effect and there is a rain shortfall but not in
the regions where the pulses are produced, then it will not affect the production at all.
The major pulse-producing states are Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar
Pradesh, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, which together constitutes nearly 80% of the total
production.
According to the report, there is a steep increase in the prices of pulses due to supply
constraints to meet the growing demand due to population and increasing purchasing
powers.
However, Kothari attributed the shortage of supply to the weather disturbance that
happened towards end-February and beginning March when some areas in India had
unseasonal rains and hail storms which affected the prices of Lentils andMoong for a little
while. These prices too have softened now, he added.
Apart from the monsoon factor, the traders' body told this newspaper that the imports from
Canada were low in the beginning of the year due to logistic problems in the country, which
have now been resolved. This implies that the Indian market will now have access to more
pulses as the consignments would be released. Canada is one of the major exporters of
pulses to India.
Nevertheless, Kothari pointed out that if the rains are deficient in the three major pulses
producing states, then there could be productions shortfall which will result in the prices of
the pulses to go up.
One of the main Kharif crops is Urad, which is cultivated in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh
and Uttar Pradesh. If the rainfall in the three cultivating states is affected then it could
impact the price. However, we cannot say anything definitively right now. We will need to
see how the monsoon is and only then can we comment on the prices of pulses," he
stated.
It should be noted that Indias pulses imports are around Rs. 10,000 crores while the total
imports in the financial year 13-14 are expected to be around 3 million tons as compared to 3.50
million tons in the previous year. India has already imported 1.4 million tons between April 2013
and September 2013.