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5. Events
Event is defined as a subset of the Sample Space. Simple or Elementary Event consists only one
single element of Sample Space.
Fig. 2.Events
Examples of Sample Space and Events are:
i. In case of reservoir storage, the range of levels from zero to maximum capacity forms the
sample space. Typical example of events in this case may be reservoir storage above
dead storage, below 50% of total capacity etc.
ii. In case of traffic volume, does all possible types of vehicle constitute the sample
space?
Answer is NO. The traffic volume means the total number of different types of vehicles
moving across a particular stretch of a road. Thus, the sample space for traffic volume
consists of number of each type of vehicle, which varies between zero and infinity. In this
case, any range of real integer numbers can be treated as an event.
In some other experiment, all possible types of vehicle can also treated as an sample
space. Reader may find it out oneself using content of this chapter.
6. Concept of Probability
The probability concept was proposed originally to explain the uncertainty involved in outcome
of random events. In this theory, it is considered that random events can occur either sequentially
or simultaneously, e.g. occurrence of road accidents in transportation safety analysis, occurrence
of extreme (either very high or very low) rainfall, which is beyond the capacity of drainage
network etc.
Generally, for a particular system, occurrence of such events approaches to a proportion of total
number of events. With the increase in number of observations, this proportion becomes
constant. For example, tossing of a coin is an experiment and noting the outcome. Here
estimation of the percentage of heads (or tail) approaches to 0.5 with increase in number of
tossing (for a fair coin). This gives rise to the relative frequency approach for interpretation of
probability.
7. Interpretation of Probability
Probability can be interpreted in various ways. Based on relative frequency approach we can say,
if an experiment is performed times and an event occurs times, then with high degree
of certainty, the relative frequency is close to the probability of occurrence of ,
(Papoulis and Pillai, 2002):
This is true when is sufficiently large, that is,
8. Assigning Probability
There are basically three ways to assign probability to the results of an event.
Firstly, probabilities of certain events in an inexact way, e.g. if out of days in a year,
65 days have recorded rainfall above the average; then the probability of the event: above
average daily rainfall is assigned as 65/365 or 0.178.
Secondly, make an analytical reasoning for the event for which probability is to be assigned, e.g.
as per the definition of characteristic strength of concrete, if a cm concrete cube is made of
grade concrete and subject to a pressure of MPa (N/mm
2
), probability of the event, that
the cube will fail, is .
Third and lastly, assume that the probability of an event will follow certain axioms and then
using deductive approach calculate the probability of an event based on probabilities of other
related events, e.g. the probability that a testing device will be rated as very poor, poor,
average, satisfactory and excellent are , , , and respectively; then the
probability of the same device will be rated as above average will be .
The most important point to remember, while assigning probability, is that probability cannot
be assigned to an experiment, rather to the results of an experiment or event.
9. Axiomatic Definitions
If there is set, of mutually exclusive events i.e. one event exclude occurrence of the other
events, then
Axiom1: Probability of , is an non-negative number:
Axiom 2: Total probability of all events in the set, is:
Axiom 3: If A and B are two mutually exclusive events belong to S, the probability of event
in addition to individual probabilities of and :
where, union of two events and or defined as an outcome when or or both
occur simultaneously.
10. Classical Definition
The probability of an event , is determined, without actual random experiment, as a
ratio of favourable and all possible outcomes of an experiment. In terms of mathematical
expression:
where, is the favourable related to event and is the total possible outcomes.
It should be noted that, this definition of probability implicitly assumes that all possible
outcomes of an experiment are equally likely.
To understand the classical definition, there are a few critical views one has to keep in mind:
a. the term equally likely means that outcomes of an event are equally probable or fair
choice which may not be feasible and determination of , is difficult in practical
cases.
b. this definition is applicable to limited practical problems, as equal probability of
choices is hard to achieve.
c. If the number of possible outcome is infinity, some sort of measurement of infinity,
such as, length, area etc. should be assigned to get the ratio of and .
a. Randomness links with probabilistic or stochastic system, whereas Causation links with
deterministic system.
b. Randomness is always defined with certain errors and range of relevant parameters,
whereas Causation is defined with a high degree of certainty if number of outcomes is
large enough.
14. Concluding Remarks
Before closing this lecture there are few important points to remember in brief. Random events
are possible outcomes of a random experiment, and probability is a measure of uncertainty in
occurrence of them. Random events consist of either single point or multiple outcomes in a
sample space. The relationships among random events are governed by the Set Theories and
event properties. These properties will be explained in the next lecture.
References:
Papoulis, A. and Pillai, S. U. (2002). Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes.
Fourth Edition. McGraw-HillScience/Engineering/Math. ISBN: 978-0072817256.