Impact of Climate Change on Global Food Security

Introduction:
Agriculture constitutes the backbone of many world countries economics. It is the
biggest contributor to the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), largest source of foreign
exchange and major generator of savings, taxes and revenues.
Climate change impose their great threats to agriculture production and food
security in the 21
st
century, particularly in many countries of the world, due to
climate change possibly decreasing trends in crop yield occurs (Shah et al., 2008;
Nellemann et al., 2009). Food security is defined as; Good quality, safe and
nutritious food items available at all time to all peoples for better health. (FAO,
2002). The climate change affects the four dimensions of food security which
include such as; food availability, stability of food supplies, access to food and
food utilization.
Food security will not only depend upon the impact of climate change on food
production, but also depends upon human development, economic growth and food
aid policies (Keane et al., 2009). Food security in all dimensions are closely
interlinked with agriculture production, which is both source of food and income
for rural households. Climate change including change in temperature, rising level
of CO
2
, changing in rainfall patterns and global warming imposing impacts on
global food security. The intensity of direct effects of climate change on land use,
cropping patterns and agriculture production still uncertain.
Climate change effect four dimensions of food security;
Food production and Food Availability
Climate change directly affects the food production through producing change in
agro-ecological conditions and indirectly by disturbing growth and income
production. Climate change induces the decline in crop production and land
suitability.
Stability of food Supplies
Extreme weather events like increase in temperature, changing rainfall patterns
adversely affect the crop yield and food production which ultimately affects the
stability of food supplies and food security. Climate change will induces the
decline in crop production and livestock number especially in South Asia and sub-
Saharan Africa.
Access to Food
It refer as ability of communities, countries and societies to purchase food in
sufficient quantity and quality. Falling prices of food items and increase in income
leads to improvement in access to food. Climate change leads to increase in food
prices and decreasing rate of income growth.
Food Utilization
Climate change causing various infectious diseases include water borne diseases
and hunger affects the population more susceptible to diseases, which may leads to
increase in labour productivity, mortality and morbidity.
Climate Change
Climate change defines by (IPPC 2007) change in climate due to anthropogenic
and natural activities occur for a long period of time. The United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), which defines climate
change as a change of climate which is produce directly or indirectly due to the
anthropogenic activities that change the composition of the atmosphere and which
is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time
periods. The climate change occurs weather due to natural variability or as a result
of anthropogenic activities and furthermore interlinked causes of climate change
includes a) natural internal process, b) external forces, c) continuous anthropogenic
activities contribute to the change in the composition of climate change.
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) are mainly responsible for global warming and these
gases include such as CO
2
, N
2
0, CH
4
, and water vapours. Carbon dioxide is mainly
produce during the process of combustion, while methane produce during the
mining of coal, gas and oil and nitrous oxide is produce during industrial and
agriculture activities. Anthropogenic activities are mainly responsible for newly
emerging CO2 enrich world because, since preindustrial time CO2 concentration
has increased from 280ppm to 380ppm due to enlarge use of fossil fuel and
massive deforestation. The concentration of GHGs increases due to anthropogenic
activities at a rate of 23ppm per decade, which is the largest increase during the
last 6.5 million years (Stern 2006). The contribution of different sectors for GHGs
emission which include 63% from energy sector, 13% agriculture, 13% industry,
18% land use and forestry and 3%contricution by waste (Rosegrant et al, 2008).
The biggest source of energy on earth is solar light and atmosphere is composed of
various GHGs which hold these rays and allow to pass them on the earth and then
let go back in to the space. So, atmosphere plays a major role in maintaining the
earth average temperature at a level of 15
O
C (Edwards 1999). Global warming is a
big issue which is mainly caused by the higher level of carbon dioxide, the level of
carbon dioxide goes to be increases day by day due to anthropogenic activities
these GHGs trap the sunlight and does not allow back to the space, and cause to
increase the overall earth temperature (Brown 1998). Many problems like floods,
drought, Famine and newly born disease occurs due to global warming in many
parts of the world (Tisdell 2008). The GHGs concentration up to 21
st
century
increases 3 times as much as pre-industrial time causing rise in temperature 3 to
10
O
C.
Agriculture is most vulnerable sector to climate change. The number of climate
change factors include change in rainfall patterns, rise in temperature, and change
in sowing and harvesting dates, evapotranspiration and land stability affect the
agriculture production (Harry M. et al1993). The impact of climate change on
agriculture include the decrease in agriculture output and shrinkage the growth
period. The CO2 regarded as a climate factor have a positive effects on plant
growth (Warrick 1988); the CO2 enrichment in atmosphere increase the rate of
photosynthesis in plants. This effects are also known as carbon dioxide
fertilization. This effect is predominately found in C3 plant because higher level of
CO2 increase the process of photosynthesis and also suppress the process of
photorespiration. Second effect increased in the level of CO2 decrease the process
of transpiration by closing the stomata and hence decrease the water loss. Both
these aspects increase the water use efficiency of plant causing increase growth.
The crop which shows the positive response to CO2 enrichment are characterized
as a C3 plants and these crops include such as rice, soya bean, cotton, wheat, oat,
barley etc. and those which shows thee less response to CO2 enrichment are
characterized as C4 crops and these crops include maize, sugarcane, sorghum,
millet and other crops. The IPCC projected that drought risk increase in many parts
of the world in its Fourth Assessment report, especially in agrarian countries and
this trend to become more widespread in next two decades.
The observations that global average surface temperature has risen by 0.74
O
C but
humans contributions cannot be counted in this change, but both natural and
human activities are also leads the temperature to be rise. Some projections
indicate that average surface temperature rise between 1 and 3.5
0
C (WTOUNEP,
2009).
Climate Change on evidence based observations IPCC, Fourth Assessment
Report, 2007
In the instrumental records of global average surface temperature since 1850, from
1995-2006 period rank among the 12 warmest years.
The linear warming trend found warmer than from previous 50 years 1956-2005
(0.13
O
C per decade) is closely twice from 1906-2005 years.
During last century Arctic average temperature have increased almost twice time
the global average temperature. The observations since 1961 shows that average
global ocean temperature have increased up to 300m depth and these oceans taking
up 80% of heat added in climate system.
Over the years 1961 to 2003 the global average sea level rose at a level of 1.8 mm
(1.3mm to 2.3 mm) per year, and over the year 1993 t0 2003 the average global sea
level rose at a level of 3.1 (2.4mm to 3.8mm) per year.
The satellite data of 1978 shows that annual average arctic sea extent has
decreasing by 2.7 (2.1 to 3.3) percent per decade, and larger decrease in summer
occurs with average of 7.4 (5.0 to 9.8) percent per decade.
Trends of precipitation has been observed from 1900 to 2005 in various regions of
the world, it has been found that precipitation increased significantly in eastern
parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia,
whereas precipitation declined in the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of
southern Asia.
The global area affected by drought has increased since the 1970s. Since the last 50
years the intensities and frequencies of extreme weather events have changed.
Cold days, cold night and frost have been less frequent over the last 50 years
while the hot days and night become more prominent in the many part of the
world.
The heat waves become the more prominent over the last 50 years.
The intensity of heavy rainfall have increased in many parts of the world.
The sea level extent has increased since the 1975.
The observational evidence of since 1970s shows that intensity of tropical
cyclone activity increased in North Atlantic.
The average temperature of North Hemisphere during the second half of 20
th

century much more higher than the 50 years in the last 500 years and likely
in highest in at least the previous 1300 years.
Source: IPCC (2007), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis of Contribution of
Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report *Statements
are based on likelihood assumptions adopted by the IPCC Working Groups.
For details of likelihood assumptions and probability standards, see IPCC
(2007), Treatment of Uncertainty, Pg: 27
Literature Review
Developing countries have account that 98% of the worlds population are under
nourish. The FAO estimated that the total numbers of under nourished people in
the world decline by 9.6 % to 925 million in 2010 (FAO, 2010). The World Food
Conference of 1974 defined food security only in terms of food supply, and
assuring the availability and price stability of food at both national and
international levels. The World Food Summit of 1996, recognizes the
multidimensional nature of food and food security includes food access,
availability, quality, usage and stability are key components of food security. The
food security based on two pillars, the theoretical foundations of which were
developed through the entitlement approach (Young et al, 2001). The entitlement
approach is based on 3 aspects which include such as (i) the endowment set, (ii)
the entitlement set, and (iii) the entitlement mapping. Endowment sets include
combination of all resources which owned by person and it include both tangible
resources, such as land, equipments, animals and intangibles resources include
knowledge, labour, skill, power and membership of particular community society.
Entitlement set is defined as the combination of all goods and services that a
person can legally be obtained by using their endowment set. Entitlement mapping
is the rate at which the resource of endowment have been utilized to produce the
goods and services which include in the all entitlement set. The entitlement set is
derived through the using if endowment sets, and failure of entitlement sets
causing famine can occur, which may occur either through failure off endowment
set or entitlement set or due to failure of both sets Osmani (1993), Nayak (2000).
Lack of food availability to population at national level are basically due to failure
of entitlement sets.
The basic analysis of food security is to be identifying the shifts in entitlement
mapping and change in composition of endowment sets and entitlement sets which
may leads to the entitlement failure. The entitlement approach helpful in
identifying the cause of famine which occurs due to the change in endowment sets
and entitlement failure thus this approach is essentially a framework of analysis
(Nayak, 2000). The entitlement approach may be stated as;
Decline in food availability plays a vital role in famine mainly by declining the
entitlement mapping of person through rise in food price rather than non-
availability of food.
Climate Change and Food Security
The primary determinant of agriculture production is climate, thus climate and
food availability are interlinked with each other. The agriculture productivity
potentially affected by climate change all over the world. Climate change effect the
crop production, livestock production, water balance, input supplies and other
agricultural components. Climate change leads to the following consequences such
as shorten the growing season, dry weather, drought conditions, reducing the
cultivable area, flood causing the crop losses, erratic rainfall, extreme events like
ENSO cycle which may include La-Nina and El-Nino events occurs. Climate
change produce the negative effects on crop and livestock production. Climate
change also alter the cropping patterns, microorganisms life cycle, timing of
irrigation supplies and severity of soil erosion (Adams et al, 1998).
The negative impacts of climate change on food security induces through lack of
food accessibility with or without the occurrence of non-availability of food.
Decrease in cop production and food supplies leads toward the economic losses
and causes the incidence of per capita availability of food falling below per capita
sufficiency. Climate change affects the all four dimensions of food security.
Climate change and food security in National Context
Climate change induces the negative impacts on agriculture production which
ultimately leads toward the food insecurity by producing shifts in endowments sets
or entitlement sets.
Changes in Endowment sets
Change in access to common resources which includes such as change in
rainfall patterns, decreasing ground water table, changing seasonable
durations etc.), leads to declining the output and income therefor endowment
sets account for dependent on agriculture.
Change in Entitlement sets
Decrease in agriculture production direct implications in term of entitlement
set.
Change in Entitlement mapping
The change in the endowment and entitlement set also alter the rate through
which resources can be used to produce the outcomes and goods in terms of
food accessibility.
The majority of the food insecure peoples in the world are dependent on
agriculture and those peoples whose suffer from food huger, count 10 crores in the
world about 80 percent of them depends on agriculture, fishing, farming and
forestry.
The 1970s famine of Africa stressed the importance of market because poor
farmers are highly dependent on cash transaction and other form of exchange for
their access to food (Boudreau, 1998).
References