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Politics Updates USC RR Day 1

UQ
UQ Will Pass
Will pass by the end of the year the GOP is coming around

Washington Post 10/30 (Greg Sargent, Immigration reform is definitely undead, The Washington Post, October 30, 2013,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/10/30/immigration-reform-is-definitely-undead/, njw)

We now have three House Republicans who have signed on to the House Dem comprehensive
immigration reform bill, putting immigration reform officially back in the undead category. GOP Rep.
David Valadao of California is officially on board with the bipartisan proposal, according to a statement from the
Congressman sent my way: I have been working with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to find
common ground on the issue of immigration reform. Recently, I have focused my efforts on joining with likeminded
Republicans in organizing and demonstrating to Republican Leadership broad support within the Party to address immigration reform in the
House by the end of the year. By supporting H.R. 15 I am strengthening my message: Addressing immigration reform in the
House cannot wait. I am serious about making real progress and will remain committed to doing
whatever it takes to repair our broken immigration system. Valadaos move is not wholly unexpected, given that he
inhabits a moderate district with a lot of Latinos. But his insistence that addressing immigration reform cannot wait
is helpful. It seems like an implicit message to the GOP leadership: We must act this year, and on this
bill, if necessary . This comes after GOP Reps. leana Ros-Lehtinen and Jeff Denham Jeff Denham did the same. Denham has said he
expects more Republicans to ultimately sign on, and has also said that the House GOP leadership told him
there will be a vote on something immigration -related by the end of the year . Its unclear whether there will
actually be a House vote on anything involving immigration before the year runs out, and it seems very unlikely that there will be a vote on the
House Dem measure, which is essentially the Senate comprehensive immigration reform bill, without the Corker-Hoeven border security
amendment that House Dems dislike, and instead with another border security amendment House Dems like swapped in. However, the
movement among Republicans towards the Dem bill even if it is only a trickle for now is interesting, as a
reminder that immigration reform can happen if House GOP leaders actually want it to. To be sure, immigration reform faces a huge obstacle:
The stark underlying structural realities of the House Republican caucus. Far too few Republican members have large enough Latino
populations to impact the outcome in 2014. With primaries coming, there just may be no incentive for Republicans to act until after the 2014
elections. But there are other factors to consider. In some key respects, immigration reform poses its own unique set of political challenges
and conditions it is not quite as polarizing an issue as, say, Obamacare or even the question of whether to agree to new revenues as part of a
budget deal. Major GOP aligned constituencies the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, evangelicals, high tech
and agricultural interests in the districts of House Republicans want immigration reform. Whats more,
there is a built-in incentive for Republicans to put this issue behind them, given the slow forward
march of demographic realities. Also, as longtime immigration operative Simon Rosenberg explains, Congressional
Republicans have a long history of working on this issue. And some polls show that even sizable chunks of
Republican voters want comprehensive reform, particularly if it is packaged with border security (Republican pollster Whit
Ayres research, in particular, has shown that even GOP primary voters want action when informed that the other option is the status quo or
de facto amnesty, as some pro-reform Republicans put it. Indeed, if there is anything that can make something happen, its the possibility
that inaction is far more difficult politically for Republicans than many of them (and many commentators)
claim. The immigration problem de facto amnesty is not going away. If more Republicans like these three
urge action inside the GOP caucus, its not impossible that House GOP leaders will allow votes on border security, the Kids Act, or potentially
the legalization proposal that Republicans are said to be working on. That could possibly get us to conference.

This weeks lobbying turned the tide

Nowicki & Kelly 10/30 (Dan & Erin, Fleeting hopes for immigration reform, October 30, 2013,
http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20131029fleeting-hopes-immigration-reform.html, njw)

Lawmakers have come under an unprecedented wave of lobbying from immigration-reform
supporters on the right and left in recent days, keeping hopes for the legislation alive in the Republican-
controlled House of Representatives. A small legion of pro- reform business, religious and law-enforcement leaders
have converged on Capitol Hill this week to press lawmakers for action, and a comprehensive
Democratic bill won its first GOP supporters. At the same time, immigrant advocates also are visiting congressional offices
and holding prayer vigils outside lawmakers residences, as happened last week at the Peoria home of U.S. Rep. Trent Franks, R-Ariz. The
developments come as time runs short on supporters goal of action on immigration reform before
the end of the year. The prognosis for bipartisan cooperation is grim if work on the issue slides into 2014, a congressional midterm-
election year. Reform supporters are keeping their optimism in check. Feelings in Washington are still raw following the standoff between
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and his House GOP caucus and President Barack Obama over the federal government shutdown and debt
ceiling. And many Republicans are not in the mood to hand the president a victory on the top domestic priority of his second term. A number
of hard-line House Republicans, estimated at 20 to 40 members of Boehners GOP conference, have made it clear that they have no interest in
voting for what they consider to be amnesty for undocumented immigrants. However, reform backers point to encouraging
signs in addition to the intense push by the business lobby. Key House Republicans, including Reps. Paul Ryan
of Wisconsin, Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida and Darrell Issa of California, reportedly are working on proposals to address the
status of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants who already have settled in the United States, which is the
central issue for Democrats and immigration activists. The Democrat-controlled Senate on June 27 passed a sweeping reform bill that included
a 13-year pathway to citizenship for immigrants who pass background checks, pay assessed taxes and fines and take other steps to get right
with the law, as well as a massive investment in border security. There are indications that some Republicans are becoming
impatient with the House inaction on piecemeal bills that have been talked about since the Senate bill passed. Two
House Republicans Reps. Jeff Denham of California and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida have become the first
two GOP lawmakers to sign onto a comprehensive immigration bill offered by House Democrats. Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev.,
last week said in a written statement that the growing possibility that the House might punt on immigration reform in 2013 reflects the
leadership vacuum in Washington that rightly has so many people frustrated with this dysfunctional Congress. Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., a
former 12-year House member who helped negotiate the Senate bill, said Monday on Twitter that momentum appears to be
building in the House . Thats good news for Arizona, and the country, he said in the message. For their part, Boehner and his
fellow House Republican leaders have not yet publicly declared immigration reform dead, which even
the most pessimistic reform supporters say means there is still a chance the House could act in
November or early December.

This weeks lobbying push fundamentally shifted the debate.

Nowicki & Kelly 10/30 (Dan & Erin, Fleeting hopes for immigration reform, October 30, 2013,
http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20131029fleeting-hopes-immigration-reform.html, njw)

Hoping to make sure immigration reform gets on the Houses 2013 agenda, more than 600 business, law-enforcement,
religious and political leaders from Arizona and nearly 40 other states flooded Capitol Hill on Tuesday. The fly-in
was organized by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other groups, including FWD.us, which was founded by leaders of high-tech companies.
The activists, mostly self-described conservatives, met with more than 100 members of Congress to urge them to take action on broad
legislation that includes a way for most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. to earn citizenship. In every corner of the Capitol,
the energy these farmers, tech leaders, police chiefs and pastors brought to the Hill was palpable, said
Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum. They brought a new perspective to the debate , one
informed by what they see every day in their local businesses, churches and police stations a
broken system that has a negative impact on local communities nationwide.

Will pass bipartisan support now

Washington Times 10/29 (Jacqueline Klimas, Pelosi: Votes are there to pass immigration reform, Washington Times, October
30, 2013, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/oct/29/pelosi-votes-are-there-pass-immigration-
reform/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS, njw)

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday there is a bipartisan majority in the House of Representatives ready to
pass a comprehensive immigration overhaul bill, but she may never get the chance to prove it if GOP Speaker John A.
Boehner doesnt bring a vote in the Republican-lead House. With 28 Republicans having publicly expressed support
for a path to citizenship, we believe the votes are there on a bipartisan basis to pass a bill, she wrote on
Facebook. Its just a question whether Speaker Boehner can muster the will to schedule a vote. SPECIAL COVERAGE: Immigration Reform
Ms. Pelosi, California Democrat, held a question-and-answer session about immigration on her Facebook page Tuesday afternoon. Though she
got more than 600 posts from users on topics ranging from Obamacare to Hillary Clintons possible presidential run in 2016 to whether or not
Democrats will take back control of the House next year, she responded to fewer than 10 of them and focused on the planned topic of
immigration. Some posters shared their own stories of how the countrys immigration laws have hurt them, especially the year-long wait for
immigrants to move legally to the U.S. to be with their spouses and children. This is a perfect example of why we need comprehensive
immigration reform. One of the key goals of our bipartisan bill is to reunite families. We do this by including provisions that reduce family visa
backlogs, Ms. Pelosi wrote. Others talked specifically about how the proposed bill would help young adults who moved to America as
children, called Dreamers. Many asked what Ms. Pelosis plan is to move the bill forward, despite the fact that many Republicans do not
support immigration reform. We cannot afford to waste the opportunity that we have right now, she responded.
There are Republicans who support this effort, we must make sure their voices are heard. The time for
excuses is over its time to pass this bill and get the job done for the American people.

Its at the finish line now

Gryboski 10/30, Reporter (Michael, Immigration Reform 'Really Close,' Says Southern Baptist Leader, Christian Post, October
30, 2013, http://www.christianpost.com/news/immigration-reform-really-close-says-southern-baptist-leader-107670/, njw)


WASHINGTON A leader in the largest Protestant denomination in the United States has stated at a conservative event Tuesday that drew over
600 leaders to lobby for immigration reform that their effort is "really close" to coming to fruition. Dr. Barrett Duke,
vice president for Public Policy and Research at the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, told The Christian
Post at the event titled "Americans for Reform: Immigration Reform for our Economy, Faith and Security", which was held at the U.S. Chamber
of Commerce's Hall of Flags room, that reform was near. "They passed five bills out of committee already. They still need floor votes on those.
Leadership, House leadership, has already said they want to get this done; they're working on a couple more bills in
the House," said Duke. "So they've done most of the really heavy lifting on this already. It wouldn't take
much more than simply scheduling a floor vote. "


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/10/30/pressure-on-house-to-vote-on-immigration-renews-
focus-on-enforcement-sanctuary/

Pressure on House to vote on immigration renews focus on enforcement, 'sanctuary' laws
Published October 30, 2013FoxNews.com

Conservatives and others concerned that the House will pass Senate-like, comprehensive immigration
reform are rallying around a singular argument to head off such a possibility -- that the government
wont enforce the accompanying laws.

They argue President Obama cannot be trusted to enforce the laws and that state and local
governments across the country have already established roadblocks to enforcement. They point most
recently to a study by the Federation for American Immigration Reform showing 103 U.S. cities, towns
and counties have resolutions, ordinances, executive actions and other initiatives designed to thwart
federal law enforcement efforts.

Whether the Republican-led House will vote on immigration reform has become a hot issue on Capitol
Hill now that lawmakers have, at least temporarily, resolved their recent fiscal crises and with just 16
more days remaining in this legislative session.

House Speaker John Boehner has expressed interest in allowing votes on several incremental
immigration bills, which would likely include one on tighter border security.

However, those concerned about the enforcement of immigration laws also fear House leaders will take
their legislation to a conference committee with Senate Democrats and leave with a comprehensive bill
that is tantamount to amnesty for many of this countrys 11 million illegal immigrants.

If the leadership appoints conferees and we go to conference committee with the Senate over the
Schumer-Rubio amnesty bill, the odds are pretty good they're going to come out with something that is
basically the same as Schumer's bill, Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration
Studies, said recently.

That situation might put enough pressure on Boehner to put that bill to a full floor vote, which would
likely pass with support from House Democrats and moderate Republicans, critics argue.

In addition, roughly 130 pro-enforcement groups recently sent a letter to Boehner asking him to not
allow House immigration legislation to reach the conference committee.

The FAIR study released Friday shows the majority of so-called sanctuary policies, 104 including the
District of Columbia, have been put in place since Obama took office in 2009 and that almost half were
set in the past two years.

All across the country, local officials are buckling to special interest demands that immigration
lawbreakers not only be tolerated, but protected, group President Dan Stein said.

The sanctuary policies essentially provides leeway for state and local police officers in complying with a
1996 federal law requiring them to assist the U.S. government with illegal immigrants. The policies also
essentially say the officers do not question the status of suspected illegal immigrants.

California and Connecticut are among the major states to have sanctuary-type policies, with many East
Coast cities having similar ones.

FAIR spokesman Bob Dane said Wednesday he thinks Americans are concerned about Obama not
enforcing the law in large part because his administration has issued guidelines on who Immigration and
Customs Enforcement agents can pursue and because of the presidents 2012 Executive Order that
allows young people who entered the country as children to remain for two years without fear of
deportation.