STA 302 / 1001 - Summer 2013 Term Test

STA 302 / 1001 Summer 2013
Term Test
May 29, 2013

INSTRUCTIONS:
Time: 100 minutes
Aids allowed: calculator and dictionary
A t-distribution table is provided on the last page
There are 3 questions in 8 pages, including this cover sheet
Total Marks: 40

Some formulae:
( )( )
( )
{ }
( )
{ }
( )
{ }
( )
( )
( ) ( ) ( )
{ }
1 1
1 0 1 2
2 2
1 1
2 2
2
1 0 2 2
1 1
2
2
0 1 2
1
1
2 2
2
2
1
1 1 1
2
1
,

n n
i i i i
i i
n n
i i
i i
n n
i i
i i
n
i
n i
i
i
n n n
i i i i
i i i
h
X X Y Y X Y nXY
b b Y b X
X nX X X
X
Var b Var b
n
X X X X
X
Cov b b SSTO Y Y
X X
SSE Y Y SSR Y Y b X X
Y Va
= =
= =
= =
=
=
= = =

= = =

| |
|
= = +
|

\ .
= =
= = =
=

{ }
( )
( )
( )( )
( ) ( )
{ }
{ }
( )
( )
2
2 1
2
2 2
1
1 1
2
2 2
2
1
1
1
n
h i i
i
h
n
n n
i
i
i i
i i
h
h h
n
i
i
X X X X Y Y
r Y r
n
X X
X X Y Y
X X
pred Var Y Y
n
X X

=
=
= =
=
| |

|
= + =
|
( (

\ .

| |
|
= = + +
|
\ .

Do not write in this table
Q1 Q2 Q3 Total

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1. Multiple Choice Questions: circle the correct answer (no explanation needed) (5)

I. Who was the first person to perform a linear regression?
A. Gauss Markov
B. Francis Galton
C. Simon Sheather
D. George Box

II. For a particular data set, suppose the X variable (Temperature) is changed
from to via the following: =
9
5
+ 32. Which of the following
statements is FALSE?

A. The standard error for the slope will not change.
B. The p-value for the slope will not change.
C. MSE will not change.
D. R
2
will not change.

III. For a particular data set, a new point (
) is added such that
>
and
. Which of the following is TRUE?

A. SSR will increase and b
0
will increase
B. MSE will increase and SSR will increase
C. R
2
will decrease and b
0
will decrease
D. R
2
will increase and MSE will decrease

IV. What is the minimum number of data points required for fitting a simple
linear regression model whose MSE is not necessarily zero?

A. 1
B. 2
C. 3
D. 4

V. Which of the following is NOT an assumption of the normal linear
regression model:
0 1 i i i
Y X = + +

A. The
i
X s are known and constant
B. The
i
s are uncorrelated
C. The
i
Y s have constant variance
D. The
i
Y s are independent of the
i
s
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2. A simple linear regression model is fit to initial data ( )
1
,
n
i i
i
X Y
=
, and the estimated
regression coefficients ( )
0 1
, b b are calculated. Let the sample means of these data
be
1
1 n
n i
i
X X
n
=
=

and
1
1 n
n i
i
Y Y
n
=
=

. Suppose that the Gauss-Markov
assumptions hold, and that we can model the errors as
~(0,
2
).

I. Show that the estimator b
1
(given on the first page) is an unbiased estimate
of
1
, the true slope of the regression line. You may take as known any of
the results we proved in class. (3)

[
1
] = [
] =
] =
(
0
+
1
=
0
+
1
1
(1) =
1
II. You want to make a prediction at X
h
. Show that the unknown response
value Y
h
is independent of the fitted (predicted) value at that point. You
may use the assumption that (
) = 0. (3)

Since Y
h
and
(as a sum of Y
i
s) are both normal, it suffices to show that
= 0

= (
,
0
+
1
)
= (
)
= (
) +
)
=
) +
)
= (
){
}
= 0{}

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Suppose we want to scale the X variable with a linear transformation of the
form:
= +
III. Show that the new slope estimate
1
=

1
(3)

=
1
( +) =
= [(
+) (
+)]
2
=
2

=
(
)(
=
(
)(
=

1
2
=

1

IV. Show that the new coefficient of determination
2
is the same as the

original untransformed value. (2)

=
[(
)(
)]
2

=
[(
)(
)]
2
2

=
2

V. Show that the new t-statistic is also unchanged by the transformation. (3)

2
{
1
} =

2
=

2
=

2
{
1
}
2

since
2
is a function of Y only.

=

1
{
1
}
=

1
/
{
1
}/
=

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3. The data analyzed below come from an engineering experiment at an auto plant
where several tires were tested until they exploded. The following variables were
measured from a sample of tires:
thickness: the tire thickness (in mm)
fail_pressure: the failure pressure (in psi) when the explosion occurred
The SAS output from a linear regression is given below. Note that some values
are missing, and some have been replaced by letters.

I. Find the 8 missing values (A through H) in the output. (8)

A. 63
B. 64
C. 177.08
D. 16.7
E. 14113
F. 7.27
G. 4.09
H. 0.2095

The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL1
Dependent Variable: fail_pressure

Number of Observations Read 65
Number of Observations Used 65

Analysis of Variance

Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F

Model 1 2957 2957 (D) 0.0001
Error (A) 11156 (C)
Corrected Total (B) (E)

Root MSE 13.30705 R-Square (H)
Dependent Mean 34.28583 Adj R-Sq 0.1970
Coeff Var 38.81210

Parameter Estimates

Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept 1 5.52531 (F) 0.76 0.4475
thickness 1 1.43803 (----) (G) 0.0001
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II. What is the sample standard deviation of the tire thickness? (2)

() =

1
=

1
2
( 1)

=
2957
1.43803
2
(65 1)
= 22.343
= .

III. What is the two-sided p-value for testing whether the correlation coefficient
is zero (H
0
: =0)? (1)

0.0001 (same as p-value for slope)

IV. Would you reject the hypothesis that the intercept is 19 psi (H
0
:
0
= 19 vs.
H
a
:
0
19) at the 5% level? Give the test details. What is the physical
interpretation of the intercept in this experiment? Does it have a real
meaning? (4)

=

0

0
{
0
}
=
5.52531 19
5.52531
0.76
= 1.853

= 65 2 = 63 60

= 2 (0.025 , 0.05) = (0.05 , 0.1)

Do not reject at 5%.

The intercept is the failure pressure of a tire with no thickness meaningless.
Such a tire could not exist.

V. What percentage of the variation in failure pressure can we attribute to tire
thickness? (1)
20.95%
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D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
VI. The sample mean of the tire thickness is 20mm. Predict the expected value of
the failure pressure for a tire with 17mm of thickness. Build an appropriate
95% interval around this prediction. (3)

=
2
+
(
)
2

= 13.30705
2
1
65
+
(17 20)
2
1429.93
= 3.839

95%
:
0
+
1

0.975,63
{
}

5.52531 + 1.43803(17) 2.000 1.9593

. .

VII. Suppose we know that a particular tire failed at 35psi, well within the range
of pressures in the data set. Can we predict what thickness that tire had using
the output above? If yes, give the thickness. If not, explain why we cant do
it. (1)

No, we cannot do this without regressing X onto Y. The LS process
minimizes the residuals in Y, not X.

VIII. The estimated slope for this model is significantly different from zero,
however we still wont assume that increasing tire thickness causes an
increase in failure pressure. Suggest a practical reason why we shouldnt
conclude this. (1)

One of:
The thicker tires could have been made with a better source of rubber
The thicker tires could have been made by more skilled laborers
Its hard to imagine changing the equipment to make different size tires without
introducing problems
There is probably no blinding in this experiment, or control for that matter
Although it is an experiment, there is no mention of proper randomization
The relationship between pressure and thickness is almost certainly non-linear
We did not check any of the assumptions for this model

Any other sensible answer
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I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548

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D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
Item ID: 9548
I t e m I D : 9 5 4 8
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
Item ID: 9548
D o w n l o a d e r I D : 2 0 7 8 0
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STA 302 / 1001 - Summer 2013 Term Test

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