African Journal of Business Management Vol. 6(1), pp.
200-205, 11 January, 2012
Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/AJBM DOI: 10.5897/AJBM11.1738 ISSN 1993-8233 2012 Academic Journals
Full Length Research Paper
Economic benefits of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption in Romania: Has the cost of equity capital decreased?
Stere MIHAI 1 , Mihaela IONASCU 2 and Ion IONASCU 2 *
1 Quinn School of Business, University College, Dublin, Ireland. 2 Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Romania.
Accepted 13 October, 2011
The purpose of this paper is to identify a possible economic benefit of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption in Romania. Among the economic benefits of their adoption, the IFRSs increase transparency, diminish information asymmetry and risk and consequently reduce the cost of capital. In order to determine whether the cost of equity capital decreased as a result of IFRS adoption in Romania, we modeled the cost of equity capital as the expected return on the intrinsic value of a share, and computed it based on pre- and post-adoption samples. The results showed that the average cost of equity capital did decrease after the IFRSs were adopted in Romania, from 0.33 (computed based on a pre-adoption sample) to 0.13, the IFRSs providing the economic benefit of a reduced cost of capital for Romanian listed companies.
Key words: Cost of capital, disclosure quality, benefits of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption in Romania.
INTRODUCTION
The International Financial Reporting Standards (hereafter IFRS) are allegedly high-quality financial reporting standards. Among the economic benefits of their adoption, IFRSs increase transparency, diminish information asymmetry and risk, and consequently reduce the cost of capital. There is wide empirical evidence that both increased disclosure and information quality (for example, information precision) reduce the cost of capital (Botosan, 1997). However, empirical literature on the impact of IFRS adoption on the cost of capital is in its early stages of formation and has obviously not yet reached common grounds. This creates incentives to develop further research. Establishing a clear empirical relationship between the IFRS adoption and the cost of capital, or at least identifying key institutional factors that mediate this relationship is therefore a primary concern for researchers. The need to document the existence of economic benefits from IFRS adoption is even more stringent in
*Corresponding author. E-mail: ionascui@cig.ase.ro. countries where the adoption of IFRS has come as a political rather than as a natural move. Here, there are voices decrying the large costs of implementing the new standards and some authors have gone even that far to label the IFRS adoption, in some jurisdictions like Romania, a cultural intrusion (Roberts, 2000).
The adoption of IFRS in Romania
In 1999, the Ministry of Finance issued regulations (Ministry of Finance, 1999), which tried to harmonize Romanian accounting with the Fourth European Directive and the International Accounting Standards (IAS)/IFRS. At that time, Romanian accounting had already achieved a significant degree of conformity with the Fourth European Directive, if one considers the fact that the new accounting regulations adopted after 1990 were inspired by French accounting, which were harmonized with the requirements of the European accounting regulations. In fact, the Regulations adopted in 1999 meant a reorien- tation of Romanian accounting towards the IAS/IFRS, as the conceptual framework and the IAS were integrated in
the content of these regulations. The application of the IAS/IFRSs was thought of by the Ministry of Public Finance as a gradual process. To this aim, at first, for the financial year 2000, the Regulations issued in 1999, which expressly had in view the harmonization with IAS/IFRS, were applied alongside with the previous accounting regulations of the French influence through the presentation of two sets of financial statements by nearly 200 enterprises, in which we found businesses listed at the Bucharest Stock Exchange, some self governing companies, national companies, as well as businesses listed at the RASDAQ market. But the 1999 Harmonization Regulations included requirements that stipulated the further application of those to other types of enterprises, so that until the end of the financial year 2005, they should have been applied by all other enterprises, excepting those considered small. In the year 2001, the Ministry of Public Finance replaced the 1999 Harmonized Regulation with a new one (Ministry of Public Finance, 2001), with the same title but with an improved form, maintaining also the IASC/B framework and the IAS/IFRSs in its content. The accounting Regulations issued in 2001 was gradually applied according to the size of the enterprises, so that until the 31 of December 2005, all the enterprises considered big had to apply the IAS/IFRSs. The financial statements of these enterprises were legally audited by financial auditors. For all the other enterprises considered small simplified accounting regulations were issued harmonized with European directives only, applied from the 1 st of January 2003. These latter regula- tions were in fact a simplified version of those applicable to the enterprises considered big. Harmonized Regulations were also issued for specific domains such as the banking sector (in 2001), insurance (in 2001) and brokerage (in 2002) industry. According to the initial strategy of the accounting regulator, starting with the financial year 2006, the accounting of the Romanian firms had to work in two gears: a group of enterprises con- sidered big which should apply regulations harmonized with IAS/IFRS and European directives and another group of enterprises considered small, to apply a simplified version of these regulations. The year 2005 witnessed a repositioning of the main Romanian accounting regulator - the Ministry of Public Finance - that revised its policy, so that starting with the financial year 2006, all entities should issue financial statements according to European Directives only, except for public interest entities, which may/will prepare financial statements in compliance with IFRS. Accordingly, the accounting Regulations issued in 2001 (Ministry of Public Finance, 2001) that stipulated the harmonization with both the Fourth Council Directive and the IAS/IFRS were withdrawn and new regulations were issued conforming to European Directives only (Ministry of Public Finance, 2005a), both for individual and consolidated financial statements. Starting with the year Mihai et al. 201
2006, accounting regulations conforming to European Directives have been adopted also for bank entities, insurance and brokerage companies. Thus, starting with the year 2006, only credit enterprises have to issue a set of financial statements according to IFRS and it was up to the other entities of public interest (as insurance and insurance-reinsurance companies, entities regulated and monitored by the National Board of Securities, listed entities, national companies, legal persons that are part of a group and are consolidated by a parent entity that applies IFRS, etc.) to exercise this option only if they have the capacity of reasonable implementation. Owing to Romanias scheduled accession to the EU on 1 January 2007, new regulations concerning the application of IFRS by listed groups were adopted in 2005 enacting Regulation (EC) no. 1606/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council (Ministry of Public Finance, 2005b). According to these regulations, starting with the financial year 2007, listed groups and banking institutions (listed and not listed) will mandatorily apply IFRS in their consolidated financial statements only.
LITERATURE REVIEW
The notion of the cost of equity capital has stimulated a great deal of research in finance and accounting. This resulted in a wealthy literature branching out rapidly, both conceptually and methodologically. However, up to this point, the literature on the cost of capital has not yet reached common grounds on many of the crucial features of this construct: definition and measurement of the cost of equity, theoretical relationship between information and the cost of equity or even empirical links between the quality of disclosures and the level of the cost of equity capital (Botosan, 2006). For instance, lack of agreement in definition creates a lack of agreement in measurement literature. Whether cost of equity capital should be defined as the minimum rate of rate of return investors require for providing capital to the firm or as the risk adjusted discount rate that in- vestors apply to the expected future cash-flow (dividends) to arrive at the current stock price results in disagreement upon whether to measure the cost of capital based on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) or by computing the internal rate of return (IRR) that equates markets expectations of future cash flows to the actual stock price. Even in each sub-division of the literature (CAPM vs. IRR), consensus is not entirely reached. For instance, estimates of the risk premium have typically ranged between 7 and 9%, but recent evidence (Claus and Thomas, 2001) claim that risk premium is as low as 3%. On the other side of the coin, Botosan and Plumlee (2005) have reviewed the construct validity of no less than five internal rate of return measures of the cost of 202 Afr. J. Bus. Manage.
equity capital and concluded that only two of them create reliable estimates. On one hand, while the modeling literature investigating analytically the inverse association between increased disclosure and the cost of capital has succeeded to reach a certain degree of consensus, there are still questions that this literature left unaddressed. One of these addresses the problem of whether estimation risk (the risk associated with the information about the distribution of security payoffs) is diversifiable or non-diversifiable and can be captured by the CAPM. According to Botosan (2006), this question is of an empirical nature rather than a theoretical one. Finally, perhaps the largest range of results regarding the relationship between information and the cost of capital has been created by the empirical literature. The work here is vast and for this reason, we only focus on the literature that investigates the implications of chan- ging the accounting regime on the cost of capital. More precisely, we review the results regarding the impact of IFRS adoption on the cost of capital. This literature documents divergent results regarding the relationship between the adoption of IFRS and the cost of capital. On the German capital market, Leuz and Verrecchia (2000) report evidence that the switch from local GAAP to IFRS or US GAAP reduces the information asymmetry component of the cost of capital. On the contrary, also on the German market, Daske (2006) recently reports that the adoption of IFRS and US GAAP has not created the expected economic benefit of a reduction in the cost of capital. Finally, Bruggemann and Homburg (2007) expand the Leuz and Verrechia (2000) study but cannot document a clear relationship between the switch to IFRS or US GAAP reporting policy and the cost of capital. Of particular importance for all the studies aforementioned is the paper developed by Easton (2006) which investigates analytically and empirically the biases in the analysts forecasts induced by the change in the reporting regime. Easton (2006) draws attention that for companies that switch from domestic to international standards, the analysts forecasts may tend to have a different degree of optimism than for companies that do not operate this change. Easton claims that a change in the reporting regime creates differences in the esti- mations of the book value of equity which is considered by analysts when estimating the terminal value of the business. Overall, Easton (2006) concludes that the interpretation of the results in the studies just reviewed (especially Daske, 2006) should be cautious since those papers do not control for these possible shifts in analysts forecast and therefore may have possibly misestimated the cost of equity capital. In respect to the Romanian capital market, several authors have discussed the issues related to the measurement of the cost of capital. Dragot (2007) and Ciobanu (2008) emphasized the limits of applying the CAPM model on the Romanian capital market, whereas
Cruntu (2006, 2009) tried to empirically evaluate the cost of capital for Romanian listed companies based on the CAPM model. Pascu-Nedelcu and Pun (2009) proposed different models for the measurement of the cost of capital for Romanian companies taking into account the interdependency of financial markets in the context of the global financial crisis. Determining the cost of capital based on the CAPM model was seen as problematic especially in the case of emergent markets, such as the Romanian one. Difficulties relate to both data unavailability (for evaluating the volatility coefficient and the risk premium) and to the rationales used in constructing a reliable model for the cost of capital. However, there were attempts to estimate the cost of capital based on the CAPM model. For instance, Cruntu (2009) proposed computing the cost of equity capital for Romanian companies using the CAPM model in Euros or USD and then converting it in local currency only in the last stage of the process in order to avoid certain parameters with values that could be arbitrary considered and thus difficult to be quantified (Cruntu, 2009). Based on these assumptions, taking into account the expected inflation rate for the year 2010 for Romania and the Euro zone, the cost of equity capital for Romanian companies was estimated to 9.97% in Euros and 13.34% in lei. Although the link between the quality of financial information and the cost of capital is discussed in the Romanian literature (Dragot, 2006), there are very few attempts to document this relationship empirically. For instance, Ionascu et al. (2008) revealed that after adopting IFRS based GAAP, companies listed on the Romanian stock exchange market exhibited levels of the cost of capital that were lower, compared to the levels prior to the adoption. However, the results in Ionascu et al. (2008) were affected by an ex-post operationalization of the cost of capital. The study was only meant to create an initial set of beliefs about the adoption of IFRS and the cost of capital in Romania. We revisit that set of beliefs through the present study.
ECONOMETRIC MODEL
We begin our econometric modeling with the one-period definition of the cost of capital as the expected return on the intrinsic value of a share. Denote the intrinsic value of a share of firm i in year t through Vit. Likewise, let rit be the cost of capital of firm i in year t and Et[eit+1] the expectation at time t of the time t+1 earnings per share. Given these notations, the definition of the cost of capital translates into equation (1):
it it t it V e E r ] 1 [ + = (1)
Traditionally, the empirical estimation of cost of equity capital underlying this approach rests on a series of assumptions about the market efficiency, dividend payout ratio, information available on the market and the earnings process. These assumptions (A1 through A4) are worth discussing:
A1: Market efficiency Information is instantly and totally impounded in prices; A2: Dividends payout ratio The dividend payout ratio is 1. All earnings are distributed as dividends; A3: Information - Earnings represents the only source of information available on the market; A4: Random walk of earnings The earnings process is assumed to follow a random walk with no lags. That is et+1 = et + t where et is earnings in year t and t is a zero mean random error term. In terms of empirical estimation, assumption A1 ensures that the actual share price Pt is a good proxy for the intrinsic value of the firm Vt. On the other hand, assumptions A2 through A4 ensure that the best proxy for the estimated future earnings (et+1) is the observed value of current earnings (et). The argument here is fairly simple. Denote Et[et+1|It] the time t expectation of time t+1 earnings in light of total information available on the market at time t (It). Assumption A3 postulates the identity It = et. Therefore Et[et+1|It] = Et[et+1|et]. But by assumption A4: et+1 = et + t. Hence Et[et+1|It] = Et[et+1|et] = Et[et + t |et] and since the error term is zero mean then the time t expectation of time t+1 earnings is equal to et. If all of these assumptions are met, then a simple and straightforward empirical estimation of the cost of equity capital would be the inverse of price/earnings ratio. Our modeling however is constrained by the low degree of efficiency of the Romanian market (as documented by Dragot (2006), as well as by the data availability. Our aim is to tease out the cited definition of the cost of capital so that we isolate the effect of market efficiency and express the cost of capital in terms of observable data such as earnings and share prices. This is accomplished further. Also denote:
eit+1 as the actual earnings per share of firm i in year t+1; Pit the actual share price of firm i in year t. Now, develop equation (1) by introducing the actual figures for the earnings per share and the share price, under the following form:
it it it it it it t it P P V e e e E r 1 1 1 ] [ + + + = (2)
Rearranging the terms in the equation we get:
1 1 1 ] [ ) )( ( + + + = it it it t it it it it e e e E P V P r (3)
Finally, applying the natural logarithm to equation (3), we derive equation (4) as follows:
) log( ) ] [ log( ) log( ) log( 1 1 1 + + + = + it it it t it it it it e e e E P V P r (4)
Two observations need to be made at this point. First, equation (4) shows that, in order to estimate the cost of capital rit from observable variables like Pit, the actual share price and eit+1, the earnings per share, one needs to control for market inefficiencies and analyst forecast precision. More precisely, in equation (4), the variable ) log( it it P V captures the degree to which the actual share Mihai et al. 203
price Pit reflects the intrinsic value of the firm Vit. If the market were efficient (which is not case in Romania), the intrinsic value of the firm will fully be reflected in the share price, Vit would equal Pit and the term
) log( it it P V would disappear. Likewise, also in equation (4), the variable ) ] [ log( 1 1 + + it it t e e E captures the precision of analyst forecast (tendencies to over or under-estimate future profits, noisy information, etc.). If the estimates were perfectly accurate then Et[eit+1] would equal the actual eit+1, and the term ) ] [ log( 1 1 + + it it t e e E
would disappear. Consequently, the economic model in equation (4) naturally shows the need to control for market inefficiency and analyst forecast precision. Second, to allow an empirical implementation of our econometric model (equation 4), we need to disentangle the cost of equity capital and the share price in the logarithm formula of the first term of the left-hand side of the equation log(ritPit). We do this by applying the Taylor formula for the linear approximation of a function f(x) when x is around a:
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ' a f a x a f x f + (5)
Making f(x) = log (x) in (5) above we get:
a a x a x
+ ) log( ) log( (6)
Given the magnitude of share prices in our sample and estimating that the ex-ante cost of capital is usually ranging between 0 and 1, we forecast that our variable x =ritPit will range somewhere between (0, 2). Therefore, in equation (6), we make a = 1 which changes it into log(x) x-1 which further translates into:
it it it it P r P r + 1 ) log( (7)
Finally, plugging equation (7) in (4), our cost of capital model becomes:
) ] [ log( ) log( 1 ) log( 1 1 1 + + + + + it it t it it it it it e e E P V P r e
(8)
Empirical implementation
The cost of capital is by excellence an ex-ante or forward-looking concept. It requires information about the future value of an enterprise as well as information about the expectations regarding future dividends or at least future profits. As the econometric model shows, on a possibly inefficient capital market like the Romanian market, the estimation of the cost of capital will necessarily have to control for both market inefficiencies and the precision of the forecast. However, due to the lack of data availability, we leave the impact of these two frictions to the error term. From the econometric model stated earlier (equation 5), we derive our statistical model in its simple form:
+ + = + it it P eps ) log( 1 (9)
where: epsit+1 = the actual earnings per share of firm i in year t+1; 204 Afr. J. Bus. Manage.
Table 1. Descriptive statistics.
Descriptive statistic Earnings per share (RON/share) Share prices (RON) 1999 2006 1999 2006 Mean 0.34 0.13 0.61 2.23 Standard deviation 0.78 0.19 1.07 2.67 Minimum 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 Maximum 3.69 0.62 4.96 10.00 Observations 27 27 27 27
Table 2. Regression results.
Statistic Before IFRS adoption After IFRS adoption R 0.422 0.47 R 2 0.178 0.221 -1.367 -1.693 (t) (-7.557)**** (-9.536)**** 0.333 0.132 (t) (2.280)* (2.610)* F 5.197* 6.815* Durbin-Watson 2.278 2.193 Observations 26 26
Significant at *0.05; and ****0.00001.
Pit = the actual share price of firm i in year t. The model will be estimated at two different times: time t (prior to the adoption of IFRS standards), and time t+ (after the adoption of IFRS standards). Since harmonization of Romanian accounting with the IFRS standards started in the year 1999, and reached the full compliance stage starting with 2005, we have selected as relevant dates for our sample years t=1998 (pre-adoption) and t+ =2006 (post-adoption). The coefficient of interest in the model is , which is a direct estimate of the cost of capital. We expect the value of to be positive and lower than 1. Likewise, if the adoption of IFRS has created the economic benefit of a reduced cost of capital, we expect the estimation of for the post-adoption sample (t+) to be lower than the estimation of for the pre-adoption sample. A word of caution needs to be told before proceeding with the empirical assessments of the model. The estimation of in the previous regression represents only a gross estimate of the cost of equity capital because there are no control variables for market inefficiencies and forecast precision. However, these estimates, unrefined as they are, still offer a first impression on the magnitude of the cost of equity capital as well as a starting point in comparing the cost of capital before and after IFRS adoption. Due to objective reasons further discussed, our sample size is moderate. First, the Romanian capital market is not very large. The number of companies listed on both tires (I and II) of the stock exchange has never exceeded 70 companies. Although this decision may come with some company size effect, to avoid substantial reduction of our samples, we decided to retain in our pre- and post- adoption samples, companies from both tires. However, companies that were listed in 1998 but no longer listed in 2006 as well as new companies listed after 1998 have been taken out of our sample. Finally, some of the companies remaining in the sample displayed negative earnings in at least one of the two years of our analysis. This further reduced our sample to a final size of 27 companies. Data was analyzed with the functions of SPSS. Descriptive statistics regarding the levels of earnings per share and stock prices are presented in Table 1.
RESULTS
The regression results are summarized in Table 2. The coefficient is positive and lower than 1 for both before and after the IFRS adoption samples. Moreover, from the pre-adoption sample (0.33) is bigger than from the post-adoption sample (0.132) which supports an inverse relationship between reporting quality and the cost of capital in Romania as a result of IFRS adoption by listed companies. The ex-post calculation of r it P it reports no value outside the benchmark interval of (0, 2) assumed in the development of the econometric model.
CONCLUSION AND LIMITATIONS
The purpose of this paper was to identify a possible economic benefit of IFRS adoption in Romania. Prior literature reveals that a high-quality accounting and reporting system (such as the one based on IFRS) determines entirely the very quality of financial information, resulting in increased transparency and comparability of financial information reported, and finally in a decreased cost of capital.
In order to determine whether the cost of equity capital did decrease as a result of the IFRS adoption in Romania, we have modeled the cost of equity capital as the expected return on the intrinsic value of a share, and computed it based on pre- and post-adoption samples. The results showed that the cost of equity capital decreased after the IFRSs were adopted in Romania, from 0.33 (computed based on a pre-adoption sample) to 0.13 (estimated on a post-adoption sample). We can comment on the fact that the cost of capital of Romanian listed companies computed for the year 2006 (after the adoption of IFRS) is comparable to the one estimated by Cruntu (2009) based on a CAPM model for the year 2010. However, the figures stated previously are only gross estimates of the cost of equity capital because the econometric model tested had no control variables for market inefficiencies and forecast precision. Yet, these estimates, unrefined as they are, still offer a first impression on the magnitude of the cost of equity capital as well as a starting point in comparing the cost of capital before and after IFRS adoption.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support offered by CNCSIS UEFISCSU through the project PNCDI II: ID_1840/IDEI II: The benefits of IFRS adoption: an exploratory research regarding the impact of the internationalization of Romanian accounting on the cost of capital.
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