Instead of crying, I held my tears back. Last year's Top 3 and this year's Top 6.

Though only the Top 5 were given the award and

were recognized, I'm still grateful for being in the Top 6. Reaching this far and being included in the Dean's List is such a huge
blessing. Challenge for this school year: Be included in the Top 5 again. Why not? :)Point Estimate vs. Interval Estimate
Statisticians use sample statistics to estimate population parameters. For example, sample means are used to estimate
population means; sample proportions, to estimate population proportions.
An estimate of a population parameter may be expressed in two ways:
Point estimate. A point estimate of a population parameter is a single value of a statistic. For example, the sample
mean x is a point estimate of the population mean . Similarly, the sample proportion p is a point estimate of the
population proportion P.
Interval estimate. An interval estimate is defined by two numbers, between which a population parameter is said to
lie. For example, a < x < b is an interval estimate of the population mean . It indicates that the population mean is
greater than a but less than b.
The point estimate is our best guess of the true value of the parameter, while the interval estimate gives a measure of accuracy
of that point estimate by providing an interval that contains plausible values.

Confidence Interval Data Requirements
To express a confidence interval, you need three pieces of information.
Confidence level
A confidence level refers to the percentage of all possible samples that can be expected to include the true population
parameter. For example, suppose all possible samples were selected from the same population, and a confidence interval
were computed for each sample. A 95% confidence level implies that 95% of the confidence intervals would include the
true population parameter.
Statistic
A statistic is a characteristic of a sample. Generally, a statistic is used to estimate the value of a population parameter.
Margin of error
The margin of error expresses the maximum expected difference between the true population parameter and a sample
estimate of that parameter. To be meaningful, the margin of error should be qualified by a probability statement (often
expressed in the form of a confidence level).
Given these inputs, the range of the confidence interval is defined by the sample statistic + margin of error. And the uncertainty
associated with the confidence interval is specified by the confidence level.
Often, the margin of error is not given; you must calculate it.




Maximum Error of the Estimate
The maximum error of the estimate is denoted by E and is one-half the width of the confidence interval. The basic confidence
interval for a symmetric distribution is set up to be the point estimate minus the maximum error of the estimate is less than the
true population parameter which is less than the point estimate plus the maximum error of the estimate. This formula will work
for means and proportions because they will use the Z or T distributions which are symmetric.

MARGIN OF ERROR (E) (or maximum error of the estimate): maximum likely
difference between the observed sample mean x and the true value of the population mean . .
It is calculated by multiplying the critical value and the standard deviation of the sample
means:

Confidence limits are expressed in terms of a confidence coefficient. Although the choice of confidence coefficient is somewhat
arbitrary, in practice 90 %, 95 %, and 99 % intervals are often used, with 95 % being the most commonly used.
As a technical note, a 95 % confidence interval does not mean that there is a 95 % probability that the interval contains the true
mean. The interval computed from a given sample either contains the true mean or it does not. Instead, the level of confidence
is associated with the method of calculating the interval. The confidence coefficient is simply the proportion of samples of a
given size that may be expected to contain the true mean. That is, for a 95 % confidence interval, if many samples are collected
and the confidence interval computed, in the long run about 95 % of these intervals would contain the true mean.
If the procedure for computing a 95% confidence interval is used over and over, 95% of the time the interval will contain the
true parameter value.

Properties of a Good Estimator:
1. must be an unbiased estimator -expected value of
estimator or mean obtained from samples of a given
size must be equal to the parameter
2. must be consistent -as sample size increases estimator
approaches value of the parameter
3. must be relatively efficient -estimator must have
smallest variance of all other estimators

Before you can calculate a sample size, you need to determine a few things about the target population and the sample you
need:
1. Population Size How many total people fit your demographic? For instance, if you want to know about mothers
living in the US, your population size would be the total number of mothers living in the US. Dont worry if you are
unsure about this number. It is common for the population to be unknown or approximated.
2. Margin of Error (Confidence Interval) No sample will be perfect, so you need to decide how much error to allow.
The confidence interval determines how much higher or lower than the population mean you are willing to let your
sample mean fall. If youve ever seen a political poll on the news, youve seen a confidence interval. It will look
something like this: 68% of voters said yes to Proposition Z, with a margin of error of +/- 5%.
3. Confidence Level How confident do you want to be that the actual mean falls within your confidence interval? The
most common confidence intervals are 90% confident, 95% confident, and 99% confident.
4. Standard of Deviation How much variance do you expect in your responses? Since we havent actually administered
our survey yet, the safe decision is to use .5 this is the most forgiving number and ensures that your sample will be
large enough.

You can calculate a confidence interval (CI) for the mean, or average, of a population even if the standard deviation is unknown or the sample size is small. When a statistical
characteristic thats being measured (such as income, IQ, price, height, quantity, or weight) is numerical, most people want to estimate the mean (average) value for the
population. You estimate the population mean,

by using a sample mean,

plus or minus a margin of error. The result is called a confidence interval for the population mean,

In many situations, you dont know

so you estimate it with the sample standard deviation, s; and/or the sample size is small (less than 30), and you cant be sure your data came from a normal distribution. (In the
latter case, the Central Limit Theorem cant be used.) In either situation, you cant use a z*-value from the standard normal (Z-) distribution as your critical value anymore; you
have to use a larger critical value than that, because of not knowing what

is and/or having less data.
The formula for a confidence interval for one population mean in this case is