VoyageOptimizationVersusWeatherRouting

ByHenryChen,Ph.D.
ChiefNavalArchitect
JeppesenMarineInc.aBoeingCompany

Introduction

Manyshipweatherroutingserviceprovidersinthemarketclaimtheabilitytosavefuel
andincreasesafetyandschedulereliability.Yetshipsusingtheseservicesstillflounder,
andhundredsoflivesandover5000containersarelostoverboardeveryyear.P&IClub
reportedcontainertotallosseshaveincreasedonethirdover2006and2007,and
seriouspartiallosseshavegoneup270%inthelastdecade.Amajorsurveyconducted
byMaritimeEconomicsandLogisticsin2007revealedthatover40%ofthevessels
deployedonworldwidelinerservicesarrivedoneormoredaysbehindschedule.

Withexaggeratedcapabilitiesandunsubstantiatedbenefitsadvertisedbyweather
routingcompanies,shipcharterersandownersoftenfacethedifficulttaskofselecting
therightserviceproviderandleveloftechnologysuitablefortheiroperations.
Anticipatinghighfuelpricesinyearstocomeandtherecentemphasisonreducing
greenhousegas(GHG)emissionhaveresultedinrenewedinterestsforfurther
optimizingshipperformance.ArecentIMOstudy(MEPC58/INF.21)indicatedthatwhile
weatherroutingcanachieve24%reductioninfuelconsumptionandassociatedGHG
emission,asmuchas50%improvementcanbeachievedthroughtechnicaland
operationalmeasuressuchasspeedmanagementandfleetplanning.

Anysuchimprovementshavetotakeintoaccounttheshipperformancecharacteristics
intheoceanenvironmentcausedbychangingweatherinordertooptimizeavoyage.
Nowisthetimetoreviewthestateofartofweatherroutingandtodiscussthecurrent
technologiesforvoyageoptimizationasthelogicalprogressiontowardincreasingsafety
andefficiencyofmarinetransportationaswellasprotectingtheenvironment.

AllWeatherRoutingServicesAreNotEqual

Traditionalshorebasedweatherroutingservicesandsomeoftheonboardweather
routingprogramsoperateontheprincipleofstormavoidance.Atypicalsystemallows
theusertoplanarouteusingasetofgenericspeedreductioncurves(%speed
reductionasafunctionofwaveheightinhead,beamandfollowingseas)todeadreckon
shippositionstoavoidstormsasdepictedbythelowsonsurfacepressurecharts.After
tryingoutseveralcandidateroutes,therecommendedrouteissentinabrief
email/telextotheshiprequestingtheservice,withupdateswhenworkloadpermitsor
arerequestedbytheship.Thefuelconsumptionisestimatedbasedontonsperday
andnumberofdaystoarrive.

Furthermore,suchcursoryrouteadvisoriesoftendonottakeintoaccountnavigation
hazardsandshippinglanes.TheuserhastomanuallymodifytherouteonECDISor
nauticalchartstoensuresafenavigation.

Morethan50%ofweatherroutingservicesareorderedbychartererstomonitortheir
charteredvesselforspeedclaims.Asaresult,thereareafewgoodenoughweather
routingcompanieswithminimaltechnologytoperformpostvoyageanalysis.Vessel
responsetowindandwavesisoflittleconcern.Thecriteriaforroutingandcharter
partyspeedclaimsarestillbasedonBeaufortWindForceScaleinventedinthe1800s,
regardlessofthesizeoftheshipandloadingconditionreactingtovaryingforecastwave
heightperiodanddirection.Consequently,fuelsavingishitandmisswhenweather
routingcanleadtounnecessarydiversions(i.e.longerdistanceroute)toavoidbad
weather.

JeppesenMarine,aBoeingcompany,haslaunchedtheVesselandVoyageOptimization
Service(VVOS)toovercomemanyshortcomingsoftraditionalweatherrouting
methods.Thisarticlewilldiscusstheeffectofkeyissuesinvoyageoptimization.Figure
1showsaroutegeneratedbyVVOSplottedonanauticalchartusingtheCMapCM93
database.

Figure1.RouteplottedonanavigationchartusingCMapCM93

WeatherRoutingDoesNotTakeIntoAccountShipResponses

Ashipslowsdownduetooneoftworeasons:involuntaryspeedreductiondueto
increasedresistancefromtheonsetofwindandwaves,andvoluntaryspeedreduction
duetonavigationhazardsorfearofheavyweatherdamageresultingfromexcessive
shipmotion,propellerracing,slammingorboardingseas.Theweatherroutingadvisory
servicemusttakebothoftheseintoaccountwhenestimatingdeadreckonedship
positionsinrelationtothemovementofweathersystems.Otherwise,thebestroute
perceivedbytheunknowingplannercouldleadtoadangeroussituation.Oneexample
isthefamousM.V.Derbyshireincident.Wouldthemasterstillhavetakentheactionto
outrunTyphoonOrchidifhehadknownthathisvesselwouldbesloweddowndueto
severemotionscausedbyadvancingwavesaheadoftheeyeofthestorm?Inthecase
ofM.V.APLChina,howcanoneresponsiblyrecommendarouteiftheweatherrouting
softwarecannotpredicttheriskofexcessiveaccelerationsduetoParametricRollalong
thatroute?Moreimportantly,iftheshipspeedcannotbeaccuratelypredictedusing
thesimplisticspeedreductioncurves,cantheweatherroutingadvisorybetrustedsince
thedeadreckonedfuturepositionsinrelationtotheforecaststormtractmaybe
wrong?

Itisreassuringthatsomeoftheweatherroutingcompanieshavestartedtorealizethe
limitationsoftheirmethodsandaretryingtodevelopshipresponseprediction
capabilities.Shipmotiontheoryhasbeenaroundfordecades.Topredictshipmotions,
slammingandboardingwaves,thefirststepistodigitizetheshipsbodyplan,bilge
keelsandotherappendagesaswellascalculateitsweightdistributions.Asophisticated
hydrodynamicprogramthencomputesaddedmassanddampingcoefficientsandsolves
theequationformotion.TheresultsarethesocalledResponseAmplitudeOperators
(RAO),whicharethencombinedwithforecastwavespectratopredictshipresponses.
Onlyduringthelastfewyears,suchsophisticatedtoolscanbepartoftheonboard
softwaretoprovideseakeepingguidanceandsafeoperatinglimitsforshiprouting.
Figure2isanexampleofapolardiagramthatshowsthespeedandheading
combinationsthatwillexceedthesafeoperatinglimits(redareas)inforecastwave
conditions,providingtheofficeronwatchimmediateguidanceinsettingthespeedand
headingtostaywithinsafeoperatinglimits.Figure3showstheplotofwaveinduced
bendingmomentsandshearforcesatcriticalframesfor+90degreeheadingchanges
fromthecurrentshipcourse.

Figure2.PolarDiagramshowsSafeFigure3.Effectofchangingshipheading
OperatingSpeedandheading.(VVOS)onwaveinducedBMandSFfromVVOS

Sinceresponsecharacteristicscanbevastlydifferentfordifferentloadingconditions,
thecomputationmustbecarriedoutfortheshipscurrentdraftandmetacentricheight
(GM).ShortcutssuchasprecomputedRAOsorWarningofResonanceusingempirical
approachesmayleadtodangeroussituationsand/orunnecessaryroutediversion.More
importantly,suchapproachescannotpredictParametricRoll,whichoccurswhenroll
andpitchperiodshavecertainratios,andtheshipsflareimmersesinwaves.

WeatherRoutingDoesNotTakeintoAccountEngineOverload

Thecompetitivenatureoftheshipbuildingindustryandmarineclassificationsocieties
hasresultedinreduceddesignsafetymarginsinshipstructures.Shipyardsuse
sophisticatedfiniteelementmodelsandhightensilesteelstoreducesteelweightand
productioncostsinordertobecompetitive.Similarly,thepropulsionsystemsareoften
optimizedforcalmweathertrialconditions.Onesuchdesignconsequenceforslow
speeddieselengineswithdirectdrivefixedpitchpropellersishighpitchcoupledwith
minimumacceptableseamargin.Withcalmweatherandacleanhulllightlyloaded,the
vesseleasilymakesthecontractedspeed.Unfortunately,suchpracticeleadsto
frequentengineoverloadwhentheshipisinserviceencounteringhighwind/seas
and/orasitshull/propellerstartstogetrough.

Again,ifsucheventscannotbepredictedbytheweatherroutingtools,itcanleadto
overpredictedshipspeedandwrongdiversiondecisionswhenfacingheavyweather,
nottomentioninaccurateestimatesoffuelconsumptionandtimeofarrival.

AllOptimizationAlgorithmsAreNotEqual

Therehasbeensubstantialresearchovertheyearsintheareaofshiprouting
algorithms.MostoftheweatherroutingsoftwareusesvariationsoftheDijkstra
Algorithm,inwhichtheprogramsimulatesavesseldepartingwithfullpowertoward
thearrivalportwithdifferentheadings.Aftereachtimeinterval(e.g.6hours),theships
deadreckonedpositionformsasocalledisochronesuntilitarrivesatthedestination.
(seeFigure4)Arouteisthentracedbackfromtheearliestarrivaltime,andfuel
consumptionisestimatedusingatonsperdayrate.Theclaimisthatminimumtime
resultsinminimumfuelconsumption.Thesolutionisfast,especiallywhenonlyusing
speedreductioncurvesandnottakingintoaccountshipresponsesorengineoverload.

Figure4.ExampleofIsochronesgeneratedbySPOS

Unfortunately,theproblemwithsuchanapproachisthealgorithmignoresone
importantoption:speedmanagement.Asstormsmoveacrosstheocean,itispossible
fortheshiptoslowdownandletthempassandthencatchup,insteadofsailinga
longerdistancetogoaroundorhovetoinbadweather.Suchstrategynotonly
significantlyreducesfuelconsumptionforagivenarrivaltime,italsoreducestheriskof
heavyweatherdamagewhenfullyimplementedwithshipresponseandengine
overload.

Sincespeedandheadingarebothintroducedintotherouteoptimization,theproblem
becomesmultidimensional.AnalgorithmcalledDynamicProgrammingcanbeutilized
tominimizefuelconsumptionforarangeofarrivaltimessubjectedtotheconstraintsof
safeoperatinglimitsimposedbythecaptain.Theoptimizationisperformedonauser
definedgridforsafenavigation.Figure5showsanexampleofestimatedarrivaltimes
versuspredictedfuelconsumptionoveragridofpossibleroutes.(Thegreenpointer
indicatesthescheduledarrivaltime)

Figure5.OptimizationusingDynamicProgramminginVVOS

Thecomputationeffortisobviouslygreatersincethealgorithmmustevaluate
thousandsofspeedandheadingoptionscomparedwithhundredsinthecaseof
headingonlyweatherrouting.Withcomputerprocessorspeedsdoublingeveryyear,
thetimetosolvetheproblemisreducedfromseveralhourstoafewminutes,including
thefullimplementationofshipresponsesandengineoverload.Suchsystemscanbe
implementedatroutingcentersshoreside,oronboardshipswithdailyupdatesof
forecastenvironmentalconditionsviasatellitecommunication.

Amorerecentapproachadvertisedbysomeweatherroutingcompaniesistousethe
socalledgeneticevolutionaryalgorithms.Inessence,suchalgorithmsstartafeasible
solutionandthenimproveitthroughmutatingwaypointsandspeedcombinations.The
survivalofthefittestoftherouteswillcontinuetoevolvetobuildthesocalledPareto
Frontsacrosstheoceanuntilthearrivalportisreached.Thealgorithmcangoonfora
longtimeandoneisneverassuredthatitreachestheoptimum.Itcanbestoppedwhen
therateofimprovementbecomesmarginalaftereachiteration.

Theadvantageofsuchalgorithmsisthattheycanhandlemultipleobjectivessuchas
minimumfuelconsumption,arrivaltime,andheavyweatherdamageinaprobabilistic
sense.However,sincetheshipcaptainistheultimatedecisionmakerinselectingthe
route,presentingsuchinformationinapracticalwaytoshowrelativerisksbetween
routesisamajorchallengewhenfacedwithuncertaintiesinlongrangeweather
forecasts

AllWeatherForecastsAreNotEqual

TheadventofSuperComputersandnumericalmodelshassignificantlyimprovedthe
accuracyofweatherforecastsoverthepastdecade.Nationalcenterssuchas
NCEP/NOAA,USNavy,UKMET,JMAandECWFMareroutinelyproducinglongrange
windandwaveforecastsout10daysandbeyond.However,theaccuracyofeachmodel
variesduetomodelresolutions,howthephysicsareimplemented,initialconditions
fromobservationsasinputatthecutofftime,aswellasmanyotherfactors.
Forecasterstendtocalibratetheirmodelstoperformbetterwhenstormsthreatentheir
owncountries,butpaylessattentiontomidoceanstormspassingshippinglanes.

Noneofthemodelscanproduceaccurateforecastsfortropicalcyclonesduetotheir
complexphysicsandrapiddevelopment.Humanforecastersareemployedduringthe
typhoon/hurricaneseasonstoissuetrackandintensityforecastsbasedonconsensusof
modeloutputsaswellaspastexperience.Inanycase,accuracystartstodeteriorate
after35days,leadingtoevenlargeruncertaintiesbetween510days.

Mostoftheweatherroutingserviceprovidersuseproductsfromonlyoneforecast
center.IntheU.S.,surfacepressure,windandseastateforecastsareavailableforfree
downloadovertheInternet.Whilethequalityofsuchforecastsmaybegoodenoughfor
weatherrouting,theirlevelofdetailisnotsufficientforshipmotionresponseprediction
andvoyageoptimization.Thisisparticularlytrueinpredictingtheseaandswells
generatedbytropicalcyclonessincemeteorologistsattyphoon/hurricanecentersoften
issuevastlydifferentforecastsfromthemodelpredictions.

Currently,thebestapproachtooceanweatherforecastsistoadoptamanmachine
mix,inwhichexperiencedforecastersqualitycontrolstheseasurfacepressureforecasts
includingthewindfieldsderivedfromthetrackandintensityforecastsfromvarious
forecastcenters.Thisformstheinputtoamarineboundarylayerwindmodelandthe
outputdrivesanumericalwavedirectionalspectramodel.ThisSuperEnsemble
forecastapproachtakesthebestofeachnationalcenterforecastandquantifiesthe
uncertaintiesinwindandwaves.Ateachgridpointineveryforecasthorizonextending
to10days,thevaluesforminimum,mostlikelyandmaximumcanbeusedtojudgethe
accuracylevelsoftheforecast.Thespreadbetweenminandmaxtypicallyissmallerin
shorterrangeforecastsasvariousmodelsaremoreinagreement.Thespreadwill
increaseastheforecasthorizonincreasesandtheaccuracyoftheforecastmodels
differ.Thistypeofconsensusknowledgewillprovidegreaterinsightinselectingthe
optimumroutetakingintoaccounttheriskofheavyweatherdamage.

Besidesthemoreaccuratewindandwaveforecasts,voyageoptimizationshouldalso
takeintoaccountseasurfacecurrentssincetheycansignificantlyimpactshipspeedand
fuelconsumption.Highresolutionglobalcirculationmodelsenhancedbysatellite
measurementscannowproduceaccuratedepictionsofmajorcurrentsandeddiesdaily.
Figure6showsexamplesofcurrentmaps.The1/32degreeresolutionallowsthe
locationsofKuroshioandLoopcurrentstobeclearlyidentified.Thespeedanddirection
ateverygridpointareusedinJeppesensVVOSvoyageoptimizationalgorithm.

Figure6PlotofKuroshioandLoopcurrentsfromJeppesensVVOS

BenefitofVoyageoptimization

Itisclearthatpastdecadesofhitandmissweatherroutingapproachescanbemuch
improvedwithtodaystechnology.Accurateshipseakeepingperformancemodelscan
helpshipmastersinmakingbetterroutedecisionsthatsavefuelandavoidheavy
weatherdamage.Benefitsofvoyageoptimizationcanbefurtherextendedtotheship
design,deploymentandoperationlogistics.Herearesomeexamples:

Determineshipdesigncriteriasuchasspeed,seamargin,maximumshipmotion
andbendingmomentbyrepeatlysimulatingthevoyagesusinghistoricwindand
wavehindcastdatabases.
Optimizethedeploymentandscheduleofvesselsforthetraderoutetakinginto
considerationschedulereliability,fuelcostandseakeepingquality.
Estimatetheprobabilityofontimearrivalsoshoresideoperationssuchas
loading/unloadingtruckandtrainscanbeefficientlyscheduled
Extendthefatiguelifeofshipstructuresbypredictingstresscyclesandproviding
shipofficerswithseakeepingguidancetoreduceshipstresses.

Withoutadoubt,significantbenefitsinsavingenergyaswellasGHGcanbeachieved
throughtechnicalandoperationalmeasuresasexpressedbytheIMOstudy.TheArtof
WeatherRoutingneedstoevolveintotheScienceofVoyageOptimizationinorderto
bringaddedbenefitsinshipdesignandoperationallogistics.Toachievesuchbenefits,
thekeyingredientsare:

QualitycontrolledoceanwindandwavepredictionswithadditionalSuper
Ensembleforecasts
Highresolutiontidalcurrentsandglobalcirculationcurrents
Stateoftheartfullshipmotionmodelingforactualdrafts,GMandloading
conditionsduringthevoyage
Apowerfuloptimizationalgorithmtofindtheoptimumroutewithminimumfuel
consumptionforadesiredarrivaltimewhilenotexceedingthesafeoperating
limits.
Globalwindandwavehindcastdatabaseforvoyagesimulationstoestablish
benchmarksforvoyageefficiencyandCO2index
Amethodforestimatingtheprobabilityofontimearrivaltakingintoaccount
weatherforecastuncertaintiesandshipcapabilities.
Computerbasedtrainingtotransferthescientificknowledgetoaidoperations
decision
Shorebasedsupportcenterstoassistshipsatseaatanytime.

Shipoperatorsandownersshouldbemadeawarethatvoyageoptimizationwillresult
notonlyinveryhighReturnOnInvestment(ROI)throughincreasedoperatingsafety
andefficiency,butalsointhebenefitofbeingproactiveinreducingGHGtoprotectthe
environment.