1.

HIGHLIGHTS
2. FORECAST FOR 2014 SHORT RAINS (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND))
SEASON
This Climate Outlook for the 2014 Short Rains (October-Noember-!ecember" Season is
base# on em$irical statistical mo#els #eelo$e# from %lobal Sea Surface Tem$erature (SSTs"
anomalies& SST %ra#ients an# Southern Oscillation 'n#e( (SO'") The SST anomal* $atterns
taken into account inclu#e# the e($ecte# eolution of %lobal sea surface tem$eratures that is
faorable for the #eelo$ment of a +eak ,l Nino #urin% the season) The sea surface
tem$eratures off the ,ast -frican coastline are also e($ecte# to reert to neutral con#itions earl*
in the Short Rains season) !*namical .lobal Climate /o#els (.C/s" an# Re%ional Climate
/o#els (RC/s" for the .reater 0orn of -frican re%ion +ere also a$$lie#) The e($ecte# onset&
cessation an# the #istribution of rainfall +ere #erie# from statistical anal*sis of $ast *ears
(analo%ue *ears"& +hich e(hibite# similar characteristics to the *ear 2014)
The Outlook for October-Noember-!ecember (ON!" 2014 Short Rains Season& therefore&
in#icates that most $arts of the countr* are likel* to e($erience near normal to enhance# rainfall)
The Northern& Central an# Southern Rift 1alle* an# $arts of South-eastern lo+lan#s are&
ho+eer& likel* to e($erience #e$resse# rainfall) The #istribution& both in time an# s$ace& is
e($ecte# to be %enerall* %oo# oer most $arts of the countr*) The #istribution of the 2on% Term
/eans (2T/s" for the ON! rainfall is sho+n in fi%ure 2)
The s$ecific outlook for October-Noember-!ecember (ON!" 2014 is as follo+s3
1
REPUBLIC OF KENYA
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT, WATER AND NATURAL RESOURCES
STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES
KENYA METEOROLOICAL SERVICE
!a%oretti Corner& N%on% Roa#& 4) O) 5o( 60278& Nairobi& 9en*a&
Tele$hone3 274-20-6:;<::0-7& =a(3 274-20-6:<;877>6:<6<6&
E-!"#$%&#'()*+',!(*(+.-+..(
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2014 SHORT-
RAINS SEASON IN KENYA AND
REVIE/ OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE 2014 MARCH-APRIL-MAY LON RAINS
AND 0UNE-0ULY-AUUST SEASONS
Ref No: KMD/FCST/5-2014/SO/03
Issue Date: 01/09/2014
Outlook for the 2014 Short Rains (October-
November-December (OND season
The Climate Outlook for the 2014 Short
Rains (October-Noember-!ecember
(ON!"" season in#icates that much of the
countr$ is likel$ to e%&erience enhance#
rainfall' This is as a result of the e%&ecte#
eolution of (lobal sea surface
tem&eratures that is faorable for the
#eelo&ment of a )eak *l Nino #urin( the
season' The sea surface tem&eratures o+
the *ast ,frican coastline are also e%&ecte#
to reert to neutral con#itions earl$ in the
short rains season' These con#itions
Figure 1: Short Rains (Oct-
Nov-Dec) 2014 Outloo
The areas likel* to receie 1("'-1+'!"$ '"#12"$$ 3#*4 " *(1&(1)5 *+ "6+7(-1+'!"$ (8$#-4*$5
(14"1)(& '"#12"$$) inclu#e3 *4( /(8*('1 C+91*#(8 (9akame%a& 5usia& 5un%oma& 1ihi%a"?
N5"1:" C+91*#(8 (9isumu& /i%ori& Sia*a& N*amira& 9isii& 0oma 5a*.); 8+!( C+91*#(8 #1 R#2*
V"$$(5 R(-#+1 (9ericho& Nan#i& 5omet& @asin .ishu& 2aiki$ia&Trans NAoia&); C+91*#(8 #1 C+"8*
R(-#+1 (/ombasa& 9ilifi& 9+ale& Tana Rier& 2amu"? N"#'+6# C+91*5? C(1*'"$ C+91*#(8
(9iambu& N*eri& /uran%Ba& N*an#arua& 9irin*a%a"? 8+!( C+91*#(8 #1 E"8*('1 R(-#+1
(/achakos& much of 9itui& /eru& ,mbu& eastern $arts of Samburu& 'siolo an# eastern $arts of
/arsabit" an# N+'*4 E"8*('1 C+91*#(8 (/an#era& .arissa& CaDir". These areas are sho+n in
%reen in F#-9'( 1.

The areas likel* to receie 1("'-1+'!"$ '"#12"$$ 3#*4 " *(1&(1)5 *+ 6($+3-1+'!"$ inclu#e3
8(7('"$ C+91*#(8 #1 R#2* V"$$(5 R(-#+1 (Nakuru& Narok& 9aDia#o& Turkana& 5arin%o"? 8+!(
"'("8 +2 C+91*#(8 #1 E"8*('1 R(-#+1 (/akueni& southern $arts of 9itui& +estern $arts of
/arsabit&"? an# 8+!( C+91*#(8 #1 C+"8* P'+7#1)( (Taita Taeta") These areas are sho+n in
*ello+ in F#-9'( 1.
<. ONSET AND CESSATION DATES
=i%ure 6a an# 6b #e$ict the onset an# cessation #ates for the ON! 2014 season) The $atterns
are summariAe# in Table 1 belo+
!a"le 1: Onset an# $essation #ates %or the 2014 Short Rains (Oct-Nov-
Dec) season
Region Onset Dates $essation Dates
1 All Counties in Nyanza and
Western Regions as well as
Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia
Counties in North Rift
1
st
week of
October !1"
#
rd
to "
th
week of $ece%ber
!1"
Counties Central Rift &alley
'Nakuru( )ericho( southern
half of *aringo+( so%e
Counties in ,outh Rift
'*o%et+( all Counties in
Central Region( Counties in
central -arts of .astern
Region '/eru( .%bu( Tharaka
Nithi( /achakos+( Nairobi
County( and so%e Counties
in Coast Region '0a%u( )ili1(
/o%basa and )wale+
1
st
to
nd
week
of October
!1"
#
rd
to "
th
week of $ece%ber
!1"
# West 2okot( Turkana(
/arsabit( /andera( Wa3ir(
Garissa( Tana Ri4er( 5siolo(
)itui( and northern half of
,a%buru Counties

nd
to #
rd
week
of October
!1"
1
st
to
nd
week of $ece%ber
!1" o4er %ost of the
counties e6ce-t Tana Ri4er
and )itui where cessation will
be in #
rd
to "
th
week of
$ece%ber !1"
" ,o%e counties in ,outh Rift
'Narok( )a3iado+ as well as
/akueni and Taita Ta4eta
Counties
#
rd
to "
th
week
of October
!1"
#
rd
to "
th
week of $ece%ber
!1"
4. E=PECTED RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION
The rainfall #istribution& both in time an# s$ace& #urin% the 2014 Short Rains Season is
e($ecte# to be %enerall* %oo# oer most $arts of the countr*) Short lie# intense rainfall eents
are likel* to occasionall* occur #urin% the season& an# more so& #urin% the rainfall $eak month of
Noember)
2
>. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE OND 2014 RAINS
5.1 Agriculture, Fisheries, Livestock Development an Foo Securit! Sectors
.enerall* enhance# rainfall is e($ecte# oer most a%ricultural areas of the countr*) 't is also
e($ecte# that the rainfall +ill be +ell #istribute#) This +ill im$act $ositiel* on the a%ricultural
actiities in most of the areas) =oo# securit* is e($ecte# to im$roe es$eciall* in the eastern
sector of 9en*a #urin% the October-!ecember $erio#) =armers are a#ise# to liaise +ith the
/inistr* of -%riculture& 2iestock an# =isheries for a#ice on a$$ro$riate cro$s to $lant an# the
cro$ mana%ement $ractices to un#ertake)
=olia%e an# $asture con#itions in the $astoral areas of Northern an# North+estern 9en*a are
e($ecte# to im$roe onl* sli%htl* but +ith an oerall $oor $asture con#itions as a result of the
e($ecte# near normal to #e$resse# rainfall $erformance #urin% the season) 4astoralists shoul#&
therefore& seek a#ice from the liestock sector to aert an* loss of their animals)

5." Disaster #anagement Sector
4roblems relate# to +ater scarcit* are likel* to occur in the $astoral areas of the north+estern
an# northern 9en*a? an# Southern Rift 1alle*) ConseEuentl*& there is $otential for 0uman-
Cil#life conflicts oer limite# +ater resources in these areas) Close monitorin% of the situation
an# contin%enc* measures are necessar* in or#er to a#eEuatel* co$e +ith the situation)
'n +estern 9en*a +here near-aera%e to aboe-aera%e rainfall is e($ecte#& li%htnin% strikes
ma* occur es$eciall* in counties like 9isii& N*amira& 9isumu& 9akame%a an# 5un%oma)
=lash floo#s ma* also occur in areas +here short-lie# intense rainfall is obsere#)
5.$ Health Sector
!iseases associate# +ith $oor sanitation such as t*$hoi# an# cholera ma* emer%e in arious
$arts of the countr* that are e($ecte# to receie #e$resse# rainfall) The /inistr* of 0ealth
shoul#& therefore& be on the lookout for such cases) 0os$itals shoul# be eEui$$e# +ith
necessar* #ru%s to be able to #eal +ith such situations as the* arise)
Sureillance of hi%hlan# malaria shoul# be enhance# in re%ions that are e($ecte# to receie
near to aboe normal rainfall)
5.% Transport an &u'lic Sa(et! Sector
=lash floo#s ma* occur in some $arts of Coast& Northeastern& Southeastern& Central an#
Cestern Re%ions es$eciall* #urin% the rainfall $eak month of Noember) This ma* lea# to
trans$ort $roblems more so in areas +here the roa#s become sli$$er* im$assable)
)
5.5 )nerg! Generation Sector
The maDor rier catchment areas for the countr*Bs h*#roelectric $o+er %eneratin% #ams are
forecaste# to receie enhance# rainfall) This means that surface +ater run-offs ma* re%ister
aera%e to aboe aera%e inflo+s into riers like Tana an# -thi) This is e($ecte# lea# to
a#eEuate ca$acit* for h*#roelectric $o+er %eneration in the Seen-=orks #ams)
?. REVIE/ OF /EATHER
?.1 REVIE/ OF MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2014 RAINFALL AND OBSERVED IMPACTS
?.1.1 REVIE/ OF MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2014 RAINFALL
Rainfall assessment for /arch to /a* 2014 in#icates that the 2on% Rains +ere %enerall*
#e$resse# oer most $arts of the countr* inclu#in% seeral $arts of Cestern 9en*a an# the
Central hi%hlan#s as +ell as Nairobi) /ost stations recor#e# less than <7 $ercent of their
seasonal 2on%-Term /eans (2T/s" for the season) The +orst con#itions +ere obsere# oer
North+estern $arts& Nairobi area an# $arts of central Rift 1alle* (Narok" +here seeral
/eteorolo%ical Stations recor#e# less than 70 $ercent of their 2T/s)
3
The rainfall #istribution& both in time an# s$ace& +as also %enerall* $oor oer most $arts of the
countr*) The better $art of the countr*& for e(am$le& remaine# %enerall* #r* #urin% the $eak
month of -$ril 2014 as a result of unantici$ate# an# $ersistent #ee$ lo+ $ressure s*stems in the
South+estern 'n#ian Ocean that inhibite# moisture flo+ inlan#)
Si%nificant amounts of rainfall +ere& ho+eer& recor#e# oer much of the countr* #urin% the
month of /arch +ith most stations recor#in% near-aera%e to aboe-aera%e rainfall con#itions)
/akin#u station in Southeastern 9en*a& for e(am$le& recor#e# 62< $ercent of its /arch 2T/)
This rainfall also accounte# for 106 $ercent of the stationBs /-/ seasonal 2T/)
E=PERIENCED IMPACTS ASSOCIATED /ITH THE MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2014 LON RAINS
The #e$resse# rainfall recor#e# oer much of the countr* resulte# into3
4oor cro$ $erformance oer the a%ricultural areas of the countr* inclu#in% the maiAe-
basket areas of Trans NAoia& an# @asin .ishu& etc?
4oor $asture con#itions for liestock in the $astoral areas of 9aDia#o an# Narok as +ell as
other areas +ithin Rift 1alle* as +ell as the northern $arts of the countr*?
!ecrease in +ater leels in the Seen-=orks as +ell as Turk+el an# Son#u /iriu
h*#roelectric $o+er %eneration #ams)
The hea* rainfall recor#e# in some areas le# to3
=lash floo#s that #estro*e# an# s+e$t a+a* $ro$ert* in isolate# househol#s alon% the
Coastal stri$ in the month of /a*? an#
2an#sli#es in Tetu in central 9en*a in mi# -$ril)
?.1 REVIE/ OF /EATHER IN 0UNE TO AUUST (00A) 2014
?.2.1 RAINFALL IN 0UNE-AUUST@ 2014
'n Fune-Ful*--u%ust (FF-" 2014& the Cestern 0i%hlan#s an# 2ake 1ictoria 5asin? an# Central
Rift 1alle* (Nakuru& N*ahururu& 2aiki$ia etc" e($erience# %enerall* near normal to enhance#
rainfall) The rainfall occasionall* s$rea# to the central #istricts of the countr* inclu#in% Nairobi
area)
9isumu -ir$ort /eteorolo%ical Station an# 2aiki$ia -irbase stations recor#e# the most enhance#
rainfall that +as 16; an# 12:G of their res$ectie FF- 2T/s)
-ll the /eteorolo%ical Stations alon% the Coastal stri$ recor#e# %enerall* #e$resse# rainfall (H
<7G of the 2T/s" #urin% the season) The rest of the countr* remaine# %enerall* #r*& as is the
norm at this time of the *ear)
'n terms of rainfall amounts& ,l#oret -ir$ort /eteorolo%ical station recor#e# the hi%hest FF-
seasonal rainfall total of ;01)<mm (11;G of its 2T/") 9isii& 9ericho& 9akame%a an# ,l#oret
9a$so*a stations recor#e# 7:8);mm (121G"& 4<2):mm (:;G"& 46;)<mm (:1G" an# 411)4mm
(84G" res$ectiel*) The Fune-Ful*--u%ust 2014 rainfall $erformance is sho+n in F#-9'( 46.
?.2.2 TEMPERATURE IN 0UNE-0ULY-AUUST@ 2014
The Central hi%hlan#s an# Nairobi area e($erience# occasional cool an# clou#* con#itions
#urin% the $erio#) - fe+ #a*s& es$eciall* earl* in -u%ust& turne# out to be Euite chill* +ith the
#a*time tem$eratures fallin% belo+ 20IC on seeral occasions) N*eri /eteorolo%ical Station& for
e(am$le& recor#e# ma(imum tem$erature of 1:)0IC on 4
th
-u%ust an# also on ;
th
Ful*) 'n Nairobi&
the col#est #a* +as 11
th
Ful* +hen Cilson -ir$ort an# !a%oretti Corner /eteorolo%ical stations
recor#e# ma(imum tem$erature of 1<)2 an# 1<);IC in res$ectiel*) -nal*sis of FF- surface air
tem$eratures& ho+eer& in#icates that both the minimum (ni%ht-time" an# ma(imum (#a*-time"
tem$eratures for the $erio# +ere sli%htl* +armer than aera%e oer most $arts of the countr*)
)
4
This forecast should be used as guidance in -lanning and -re-aredness
by decision7%akers and the -ublic and in 4arious cli%ate sensiti4e
sectors8 /ore detailed sector7s-eci1c and localized forecast %ay be
obtained on re9uest fro% the )enya /eteorological ,er4ice
head9uarters as well as the 2ro4incial /eteorological O:ces
N.B% T4#8 2+'()"8* 84+9$& 6( 98(& #1 )+1A91)*#+1 3#*4 *4( 2#7(-&"5 "1& !+1*4$5 2+'()"8*8
#1)$9&#1- "&7#8+'#(8 #889(& 65 *4( S('7#)(.
F-/,S .) 9ON.OT'
A-. DIRECTOR OF METEOROLOICAL SERVICES AND PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVE OF KENYA /ITH /MO
Figure 2a: S&atial 'atterns o% OND (!)s
Fig 3A: OND ONSET DATES Fig 3B: OND CESSATION DATES


5

FIGURE 4A: MAM 2014 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE FIGURE 4B: JJA 2014 RAINFALL PERFORMANCE
6