DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS An Overview of Managerial Decision Support, Business Intelligence and Analytics Marek Lubicz www.ioz.pwr.wroc.pl/pracownicy/lubicz Contact: B4 509, Wed 13-15, Thu 11-13 marek.lubicz@pwr.edu.pl Portions Marek Lubicz DSS 2012 Whats a DSS? Why DSS? 2 Plan of the Book Part I - Decision Making and Computerized Support 1. Management Support Systems: An Overview 2. Decision Making, Systems, Modeling, and Support Part II - Decision Support Systems 3. Decision Support Systems: An Overview 4. Modeling and Analysis 5. Business Intelligence: Data Warehousing, Data Acquisition, Data Mining, Business Analysis, and Visualization 6. Decision Support System Development Part III - Collaboration, Communication, Enterprise Decision Support Systems, and Knowledge Management 7. Collaborative Computing Technologies: Group Support Systems 8. Enterprise Information Systems 9. Knowledge Management Part IV Intelligent Decision Support Systems 10. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems: Knowledge-Based System 11. Knowledge Acquisition, Representation, and Reasoning 12. Advanced Intelligent Systems 13. Intelligent Systems Over the Internet Part V Implementing MSS in the E-Business Era 14. Electronic Commerce 15. Integration, Impacts, and the Future of the Management-Support Systems Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, 7/E Turban, Aronson, Liang ISBN-10: 0130461067 2005 Prentice Hall Plan of the Book Part I - Decision Support and Business Intelligence 1. Decision Support Systems and Business Intelligence Part II - Computerized Decision Support 2. Decision Making, Systems, Modeling, and Support 3. Decision Support Systems Concepts, Methodologies, and Technologies: An Overview 4. Modeling and Analysis Part III - Business Intelligence 5. Data Mining for Business Intelligence 6. Artificial Neural Networks for Data Mining 7. Text and Web Mining 8. Data Warehousing 9. Business Performance Management Part IV - Collaboration, Communication, Group Support Systems, and Knowledge Management 10. Collaborative Computer-Supported Technologies and Group Support Systems 11. Knowledge Management Part V - Intelligent Systems 12. Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems 13. Advanced Intelligent Systems Part VI - Implementing Decision Support Systems and Business Intelligence 14. Management Support Systems: Emerging Trends and Impacts Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Decision Support and Business Intelligence Systems, 9/E Turban, Sharda, Delen ISBN-10: 013610729X 2011 Prentice Hall 3 Plan of the Book Chapter 1 - An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics and Decision Support Chapter 2 Data Warehousing Chapter 3 - Business Reporting, Visual Analytics & Business Performance Management Chapter 4 Data Mining Chapter 5 Text, Web, and Social Analytics Chapter 6 Big Data and Analytics Chapter 7 Business Analytics: Emerging Trends and Future Directions Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Business Intelligence: A Managerial Perspective on Analytics, 3/E Sharda, Delen, Turban ISBN-10: 0133051056 2014 Prentice Hall Plan of the Book Part I - Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview 1. An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support 2. Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making Part II - Descriptive Analytics 3. Data Warehousing 4. Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management Part III - Predictive Analytics 5. Data Mining 6. Techniques for Predictive Modeling 7. Text Analytics, Text Mining, and Sentiment Analysis 8. Web Analytics, Web Mining, and Social Analytics Part IV - Prescriptive Analytics 9. Model-Based Decision Making: Optimization and Multi-Criteria Systems 10. Modeling and Analysis: Heuristic Search Methods and Simulation 11. Automated Decision Systems and Expert Systems 12. Knowledge Management and Collaborative Systems Part V - Big Data and Future Directions for Business Analytics 13. Big Data and Analytics 14. Business Analytics: Emerging Trends and Future Impacts Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Business Intelligence and Analytics: Systems for Decision Support, 10/E Sharda, Delen, Turban, Aronson & Liang ISBN-10: 0133050904 ISBN-13: 9780133050905 2015 Prentice Hall 4 Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems 2005 PART I: Decision Making and Computerized Decision Support 1. Management Support Systems: An Overview 2. Decision-Making Systems, Models, and Support PART II: Decision Support Systems 3. Decision Support Systems: An Overview 4. Modeling and Analysis 5. Business Intelligence: Data Warehousing, Data Acquisition, Data Mining, Business Analytics, and Visualization 6. Decision Support System Development PART III: Collaboration, Communication, Enterprise Decision Support, and Knowledge Management 7. Collaborative Computing Technologies: Group Support Systems 8. Enterprise Information Systems 9. Knowledge Management PART IV: Intelligent Decision Support Systems 10. Intelligent Decision Support Systems 11. Knowledge Acquisition, Representation, and Reasoning 12. Advanced Intelligent Systems 13. Intelligent Systems Over the Internet PART V: Implementing MSS in the E-Business Era 14. Electronic Commerce 15. Integration, Impacts, and the Future of Management-Support Systems Decision Support and Business Intelligence Systems 2011 PART I: Decision Support and Business Intelligence 1: Decision Support Systems and Business Intelligence PART II: Computerized Decision Support 2: Decision Making, Systems, Modeling, and Support 3: Decision Support Systems Concepts, Methodologies, and Technologies: An Overview 4: Modeling and Analysis PART III: Business Intelligence 5: Data Mining for Business Intelligence 6: Artificial Neural Networks for Data Mining 7: Text and Web Mining 8: Data Warehousing 9: Business Performance Management PART IV: Collaboration, Communication, Group Support Systems, and Knowledge Management 10: Collaborative Computer-Supported Technologies and Group Support Systems 11: Knowledge Management PART V: Intelligent Systems 12: Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems 13: Advanced Intelligent Systems PART VI: Implementing Decision Support Systems and Business Intelligence 14: Management Support Systems: Emerging Trends and Impacts Business Intelligence and Analytics. Systems for Decision Support 2015 PART I: Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview PART II: Descriptive Analytics PART III: Predictive Analytics PART IV: Prescriptive Analytics PART V: Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview PART VI: Big Data and Future Directions for Business Analytics Business Intelligence. A Managerial Perspective on Analytics. 2014 1. An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics and Decision Support 2. Data Warehousing 3. Business Reporting, Visual Analytics & Business Performance Management 4. Data Mining 5. Text, Web, and Social Analytics 6. Big Data and Analytics 7. Business Analytics: Emerging Trends and Future Directions DSS BI BA - MSS: terminology Intelligent decision support systems [Clark et al., MIS Quarterly, v. 31, 2007] Management Support Systems (MSS) There have been calls for a new theory of management decision support that focuses on a broader context than does the traditional DSS to include business processes, organizational members, technology, infrastructure, and organizational outcomes from using the systems. The field tends to continually chase the buzz words and system types of the day, often at the expense of establishing something of greater value that transcends system type and that provides a stronger foundation for the field. 5 Changing Business Environment & Computerized Decision Support Companies are moving aggressively to computerized support of their operations Business Intelligence Business PressuresResponsesSupport Model Business pressures result of today's competitive business climate Responses to counter the pressures Support to better facilitate the process Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. The Business Environment The environment in which organizations operate today is becoming more and more complex, creating opportunities, and problems. Example: globalization. Business environment factors: markets, consumer demands, technology, and societal FACTOR DESCRIPTION Markets Strong competition Expanding global markets Blooming electronic markets on the Internet Innovative marketing methods Opportunities for outsourcing with IT support Need for real-time, on-demand transactions Consumer Desire for customization demand Desire for quality, diversity of products, and speed of delivery Customers getting powerful and less loyal Technology More innovations, new products, and new services Increasing obsolescence rate Increasing information overload Social networking, Web 2.0 and beyond Societal Growing government regulations and deregulation Workforce more diversified, older, and composed of more women Prime concerns of homeland security and terrorist attacks Necessity of Sarbanes-Oxley Act and other reporting-related legislation Increasing social responsibility of companies Greater emphasis on sustainability Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 6 Computerized Decision Support Organizational Responses: Managers may take actions, such as Employ strategic planning Use new and innovative business models Restructure business processes Participate in business alliances Improve corporate information systems Improve partnership relationships Encourage innovation and creativity Improve customer service and relationships Move to electronic commerce (e-commerce) Use new IT to improve communication, data access (discovery of information), and collaboration Respond quickly to competitors' actions (e.g., in pricing, promotions, new products and services) Automate many tasks of white-collar employees Automate certain decision processes Improve decision making by employing analytics One of the major objectives of computerized decision support is to facilitate closing the gap between the current performance of an organization and its desired performance, as expressed in its mission, objectives, and goals, and the strategy to achieve them. Computerized DSS can facilitate decision via: Group communication and collaboration Improved data management Managing data warehouses and Big Data Analytical support Overcoming cognitive limits in processing and storing information Knowledge management Anywhere, anytime support Managerial Decision Making Management is a process by which organizational goals are achieved by using resources. Inputs: resources Output: attainment of goals Measure of success: outputs / inputs Management Decision Making Decision making: selecting the best solution from two or more alternatives - alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals Decision: conscious, free and non-random selection of one of the preset options, preceded by decision analysis, i.e. considering the available options for action Decision analysis: in managerial issues is based mostly on economic data, while options are typically diverse management decisions: operational, tactical and strategic Decision making is difficult, because Technology, information systems, advanced search engines, and globalization result in more and more alternatives from which to choose Government regulations and the need for compliance, political instability and terrorism, competition, and changing consumer demands produce more uncertainty, making it more difficult to predict consequences and the future Other factors are the need to make rapid decisions, the frequent and unpredictable changes that make trial-and-error learning difficult, and the potential costs of making mistakes 7 examples of "difficult" decision-making situations [Bielecki] - What are the optimal variants of production plans with different sets of resources? - What is the impact of various factors on changes in the option plan? What is a "probability" of each factor? - What will the future conditions of operation (e.g. interest rates, inflation, unemployment, Euro exchange rate)? - What should be the criteria for evaluation of options? Which criteria are most important and to what extent? - What expenses are associated with various options for development? - Are there any restrictions on the investment? (e.g. what is the minimum rate of return? What is the limit for the budget?) - What solutions are preferred by competitors? What strategies, scenarios can be selected by the competitors and with what "probability"? - Do we have an impact on competitors? - What problems or opportunities may arise in the near future, which currently cannot be seen? What is their "likelihood" and what does it depend on? Managerial Decision Making Decision-Making Process Managers usually make decisions by following a four-step process (a.k.a. the scientific approach) 1. Define the problem (or opportunity) 2. Construct a model that describes the real-world problem. 3. Identify possible solutions to the modeled problem and evaluate the solutions. 4. Compare, choose, and recommend a potential solution to the problem. Simons Decision-Making Process Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 8 [Griffin] CLASSICAL MODEL OF DECISION-MAKING Normative approach to decision making (hypothetical); assumes: logical and rational nature of managers decisions are always in the interest of the organization we make the decision using complete and perfect (precise, error-free) information on the decision situation and possible options decision-maker is able to successfully remove the uncertainty decision-maker is able to rationally and logically assess all aspects of the decision situation includes: understanding (finding existence) and define the decision situation (premises) identifying options for action assessment of each option in terms of: feasibility, adequacy and consistency choosing the best variant (in specific circumstances) implement the selected option observation and evaluation of the implementation This approach is also called the scientific method of problem solving [Ackoff] [Herbert Simon, according to Griffin] ADMINISTRATIVE MODEL OF DECISION-MAKING: incorporates the derogations from the classic model in real-life decision-making processes; assumptions: decisions are not always taken in accordance with the rules of logic and rationality - there are restrictions on rationality decision-makers are forced to use incomplete and imperfect (inaccurate, erroneous) information on the decision situation and the possible variants decision-maker is willing (or is forced) to accept the first feasible solution found as a result decision-makers decide (as they have to), but not necessarily they select the option that actually best serves the interest of the organization (not a "best possible") Decision-Making Process An Early Decision Support Framework (by Gory and Scott-Morten, 1971) Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Degree of Structuredness (Simon, 1977) Decisions are classified as Highly structured (a.k.a. programmed) Semi-structured Highly unstructured (i.e., nonprogrammed) Types of Control (Anthony, 1965) Strategic planning (top-level, long-range) Management control (tactical planning) Operational control 9 DECISION CATEGORIES BY DEGREE OF PROBLEM STRUCTUREDNESS Structured: situations where the procedures to follow when a decision is needed can be specified in advance: Repetitive, Standard solution methods exist, Complete automation may be feasible Unstructured: decision situations where it is not possible to specify in advance most of the decision procedures to follow: One-time, No standard solutions, Rely on judgment, Automation is usually infeasible Semi-structured: decision procedures that can be pre-specified, but not enough to lead to a definite recommended decision: Some elements and/or phases of decision making process have repetitive elements DSSs most useful for repetitive aspects of semi-structured problems - structured problems: [development of LC Towers in Wrocaw] - purpose of the activities and the method of achieving the goals (set of solutions) are defined - all relevant parameters and decision variables are quantifiable and known - all activities to perform can be uniquely represented in the form of an algorithm - can be complex and tedious to solve - unstructured problems: [improvement of public transport in Wrocaw]: - existence of many decision makers / stakeholders, each of which sees the problem differently - existence of multiple criteria, which are generally unknown in advance, arising during evaluation of the solutions - considerable degree of uncertainty regarding many aspects of the problem (not everything can be expressed numerically) - existence of a conglomerate of problems, which should be considered to enable understanding the main decision problem (or: which should be solved before one can start solving the main decision problem) - it is not clear how to define a set of solutions - it is not clear how to define a set of activities that may lead to the implementation of solutions once they are found - difficult to define the decision-making procedures (fuzzy procedures, limited extent of algorithmization) DSS for Management Support: support what - problems Computer Support for Structured Decisions Structured problems: encountered repeatedly, have a high level of structure It is possible to abstract, analyze, and classify them into specific categories (*) e.g., make-or-buy decisions, capital budgeting, resource allocation, distribution, procurement, and inventory control For each category a solution approach is developed => Management Science (also referred to as Operations Research) In solving structuredproblems, managers should follow the five-step MS approach Define the problem Classify the problem into a standard category (*) Construct a model that describes the real-world problem Identify possible solutions to the modeled problem and evaluate the solutions Compare, choose, and recommend a potential solution to the problem 10 Automated Decision Making A relatively new approach to supporting decision making Applies to highly structured decisions Automated decision systems (ADS) (or decision automation systems) An ADS is a rule-based system that provides a solution to a repetitive managerial problem in a specific area e.g., simple-loan approval system ADS initially appeared in the airline industry called revenue (or yield) management (or revenue optimization) systems dynamically price tickets based on actual demand Today, many service industries use similar pricing models ADS are driven by business rules! Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Computer Support for Unstructured Decisions Unstructured problems can be only partially supported by standard computerized quantitative methods They often require customized solutions They benefit from data and information Intuition and judgment may play a role Computerized communication and collaboration technologies along with knowledge management is often used Solving semi-structured problems may involve a combination of standard solution procedures and human judgment MS handles the structured parts while DSS deals with the unstructured parts With proper data and information, a range of alternative solutions, along with their potential impacts 11 DECISION CATEGORIES BY DEGREE OF PROBLEM STRUCTUREDNESS WELL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS ILL-STRUCTURED PROBLEMS Stable decision situation (premises) Unstable or unexpected decision situation Routine decisions Decisions that require creativity and reflections Decision-making situation fully understood and described (all data available) Decision-making situation uncertain, incomplete information Decisions repeatable One-time or unique decisions Specialized, domain specific General, multidisciplinary Self-evident decision maker and stakeholders (entities or individuals such as an employee, customer or citizen, who are involved with an organization, society, etc. and therefore has responsibilities towards it and an interest in its success) Unclear decision maker and stakeholders (who, if anybody, is responsible for or should react to increasing mortality due to lung cancer or environment pollution ?) DSS for Management Support: support what - problems Well-structured Ill-structured Simon Hard problems Soft problems Messy problems Ackoff Tame problems (trivial) Wicked problem (deliberate) Rittel/ Weber Swamp (awkward, cumbersome) Schon Concept of Decision Support Systems Classical Definitions of DSS Interactive computer-based systems, which help decision makers utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems - Gorry and Scott-Morton, 1971 Decision support systems couple the intellectual resources of individuals with the capabilities of the computer to improve the quality of decisions. It is a computer-based support system for management decision makers who deal with semi-structured problems - Keen and Scott-Morton, 1978 ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... DSS as an Umbrella Term / as a Methodology [Turban 2005] A Decision Support System - methodology that supports decision-making Management Support Systems - The support of management tasks by the application of technologies; sometimes called Decision Support Systems or Business Intelligence [Alter 2004] Decision support is the use of any plausible computerized or non-computerized means for improving sense making and/or decision making in a particular repetitive or non-repetitive business situation in a particular organization. Decision support is not about tools per se, but rather, about making better decisions within work systems in organizations. ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... DSS as a Specific Application / as a System [Marakas 2003] A DSS is a system under the control of one or more decision makers that assists in the process of decision making by providing an organized set of tools to impart structure to portions of the decision- making situation and improve the ultimate effectiveness of the decision outcome [Laskey 2006] A decision support system is a computer-based system that supports the decision making process, and has the following features: Assist decision makers in semi-structured tasks Support not replace human judgment Highly interactive Improve effectiveness of human decision makers [Power, D. J., Free Decision Support Systems Glossary DSSResources.COM/glossary/] DSSs are interactive computer-based systems, intended to help decision makers use communications technologies, data, documents, knowledge and/or models to identify and solve problems, complete decision process tasks and make decisions 12 DSS as a Specific Application In a narrow sense DSS refers to a process for building customized applications for unstructured or semi-structured problems Components of the DSS Architecture Data, Model, Knowledge/Intelligence, User, Interface (API and/or user interface) DSS often is created by putting together loosely coupled instances of these components Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. DSS as an Umbrella Term / an Approach or Methodology The term DSS can be used as an umbrella term to describe any computerized system that supports decision making in an organization E.g., an organization wide knowledge management system; a decision support system specific to an organizational function (marketing, finance, accounting, manufacturing, planning, SCM, etc.) Decision Support Systems 38 (2004) 319327 A work system view of DSS in its fourth decade Steven Alter The initial concept of DSS focused on using interactive computing in semi-structured decision making. The emphasis on semi-structured decision making seemed important (in academic politics if not in other ways) because that distinguished DSS from OR, especially from optimization models, which attempted to automate decision making, or so it seemed. After 30+ years, the original issues that led to the DSS movement have receded to ancient history. Computers are used interactively by managers, non-managers, and school children. Computerized data and models are used so commonly and for so many structured, semi- structured, and unstructured tasks that the non-use of computers in typical decision- oriented situations is sometimes a noteworthy exception. With todays widespread adoption of PCs and the Internet, we should simply declare victory on the original DSS agenda that included interactive computing, application of computing to semi-structured problems, use of computers by managers, and the ability to analyze data and models .. little can be said about DSS in general other than statements such as Systems of types X, Y, and Z are typically included under the general umbrella of DSS. By placing disparate approaches under the same umbrella, the broader, more encompassing definitions of DSS tend to blur any distinguishing characteristics. In effect, DSS becomes all information systems that are used by managers or business professionals and do not fall into some other category. DSS has little meaning other than as an umbrella covering a cluster of research interests related to using technology to support sense making and decision making. 13 contemporary meaning of DSS -> INFORMS The emphasis on semi-structured decision making seemed important (in academic politics if not in other ways) because that distinguished DSS from OR, especially from optimization models, which attempted to automate decision making, or so it seemed. contemporary meaning of DSS -> INFORMS [Power, D. J., Free Decision Support Systems Glossary DSSResources.COM/glossary/] DSSs are interactive computer-based systems, intended to help decision makers use communications technologies, data, documents, knowledge and/or models to identify and solve problems, complete decision process tasks and make decisions The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) is the largest society in the world for professionals in the field of operations research (O.R.), management science, and analytics. 14 DECISION CATEGORIES BY REPEATABILITY [Griffin]: programmed decisions (to complete the structure and / or repeated with some frequency) and not programmed (not very clear structure, made much less than the programmed decisions) Inaccurate definition: not so much the frequency is important to take, but the nature of the decision problem, indeed elsewhere Griffin writes about the characteristics of such problems: a unique, absorbing much time and resources necessary for a thorough examination of decision situation. The main factors in such decisions are intuition and experience. Examples: most of the decisions made by top managers and policy makers, strategic planning, designing the structure of: an organization, new plants / products, legal issues, contracts. DSS for Management Support: support what - problems DECISION CATEGORIES BY NATURE OF PROBLEMS (also called a taxonomy by mode of assistance) - Issues related to the processing of large databases - Problems in which complex calculations using known numerical algorithms are required - Those in which the "problem" is lack of precision (in the available data, the absence of rules of inference, data interpretation, in the preparation of a potential user) - common problems for an "expert" - Those in which the most important is the flexibility and ease of use of data from various sources (including, for example - different environments), and proper communication of the results of inference PROBLEM CATEGORIES [database] [optimisation] [expert knowledge] [integration and communication] DSS for Management Support: support what - problems 15 DSS for Management Support: support what - problems Intelligence Scan the environment Analyze organizational goals Collect data Identify problem Categorize problem [Structured, Unstructured; Decomposed into smaller parts] Assess ownership and responsibility for problem resolution Design Develop alternative courses of action Analyze potential solutions Create model Test for feasibility Validate results Select a principle of choice [Establish objectives; Incorporate into models; Risk assessment and acceptance; Criteria and constraints] Choice Principle of choice [Describes acceptability of a solution approach] Normative Models; Descriptive Models [Optimization; Rationalization; Suboptimization] Decision making with commitment to act Determine courses of action [Analytical techniques; Algorithms; Heuristics; Searches] Analyze for robustness Implementa tion Putting solution to work Vague boundaries [Dealing with resistance to change; User training; Upper management support] Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. DECISION CATEGORIES BY INFORMATION BACKGROUND AVAILABLE - scope DSS for Management Support: based on the - data Copyright 2014 Pearson Education, Inc. 16 DECISION CATEGORIES BY INFORMATION BACKGROUND AVAILABLE - scope decision-makers take into account various assumptions, which - depending on the degree of aggregation logical and information contents - may be called: - facts: single numbers, graphics, verbal descriptions [e.g. unemployment rate in Lower Silesia in 2009] - data: collection of facts, for a fixed aspect of reality [e.g. dynamics of unemployment rate in Lower Silesia 1999-2009] - information: sets of data, presented in a meaningful way (related to a particular decision making process), data that have been categorized and classified, or otherwise ordered, a description of states of affairs, events, processes [e.g. changes in unemployment rates by age group, sex, education] - knowledge: (a) ordered and "cleaned" information (quantitative, factual or encyclopedic knowledge); (b) interpreted information, indicating the importance of contextual and logical relationships of cause and effect relationships ("dependencies, trends, patterns and the law"), determined subjectively perceived by the decision maker; arises when drawing conclusions from the available data and information (qualitative knowledge) - or wisdom: ability to use knowledge and experience to make good decisions and judgments DSS for Management Support: based on the - data DECISION CATEGORIES BY INFORMATION BACKGROUND AVAILABLE completeness and certainty - Decision making under certainty: when the decision maker knows with reasonable certainty the scope of available options and associated with each of these conditions - Decision making under risk: the availability of each possibility and its potential benefits and costs are known with some estimated "probability" - Decision making under uncertainty: decision-maker does not know all the opportunities, risks associated with each of them and / or their likely consequences most important decisions in contemporary organizations are decisions under uncertainty, due to the complexity of the organization and dynamic features such as the organizations themselves and their environment consequently to make effective decisions it is important to gain as much information as available, and to perform reasoning in a logical and rational way, but an equally important role is played by intuition, judgment and experience of the decision-maker DSS for Management Support: based on the - data
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