The consequences of different population structures

AGEING POPULATIONS

When a country has a high number of elderly people, it is said to have an elderly population

AGEING POPULATIONS

The population of the world is aging significantly.
In 2005, 10% of the population was over the age of 60 a total of 670 million
It is expected that by 2050, 20% of the worlds population will be over 60 a total of 2 billion people

A rise in the median age of the population is caused by increased life expectancy (greater longevity) and the decline in
fertility. It is called demographic aging.



Dependency ratio! - As a country moves into stage 5 and birth rates continue to fall whilst life expectancy increases then
Britain will face a higher dependency ratio as a relatively small number of economically active will have to support an
increasing number of elderly dependents.
The following demographic ageing features have been highlighted by the UN:
by 2025 in the European Union:
One third of its population will be pensioners
111 million people

The working population (aged 20-59) will
shrink by 13 million

The numbers of over 60s will outnumber the
under 20s, for the first time in recorded
history

There will be three times as many over 80s as
there were in 2003

There will be 9 million fewer children and
teenagers a 10% decline.

Demographic aging poses problems for the world as a whole. However, it is the less economically developed world
which faces the greatest challenge because:
Financial, health and housing resources are inadequate to meet the increasing demands of the elderly
Traditional support mechanisms for old people are deteriorating in an era of rapid social change
The significant decline in fertility is leaving fewer children to care for elderly parents. In China, 24% of the
population will be 65 and over by 2050. The first one-child generation will have to care for two parents, and up
to four grandparents without siblings to help the 4:2:1 problem. It will be made worse by the shortage of
females, the traditional carers.
PREPARING FOR THE SILVER TSUNAMI: DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING IN THE UK





Demographic aging is one of the greatest challenges facing the
UK today. The demographic trends predict that by 2050 the
proportion of the population aged 65 years and over will have
almost doubled. The main impacts will be on healthcare,
pensions and housing.




The UK Government predicted in its most recent review that:
The ratio of people aged 65 years and over to those aged 20-64 will rise from 27% in 2001 to 48% in 2050. This
marks a considerable change from the very slow increase in the previous 20 years.
Average male life expectancy at 65, which rose from 12 years in 1950 to 19.0 in 2001, will increase further to 21
years by 2030 and 21.7 by 2050. Female life expectancy is higher, but will increase at a slightly slower rarte
The current low fertility rate of 1.7 children per woman will increase only slightly to 1.75 by 2050, leveling off
thereafter.
The 2001 census enumerated more than 1.1. million people (1.9% of the population) aged 85 and over. There
were more than 300,000 aged 90 or more.

Chirstchurch in Dorset is the pensioners capital of the UK, with one in three residents of retirement age. Eastbourne is
another oldies favourite. However, it is not only coastal areas that attract retirees the growing elderly population is
migrating to the countryside too.
Ageing and health
An aging population places increasing pressure on health resources, but it is important not to overstate this impact.
Average healthcare costs do rise with age, but the cost of this trend could be significantly offset by people becoming
healthier. Retired people continue to pay income tax and other taxed. Health costs tend to be compressed into the last
years or even months of life a process termed the compression of morbidity.
Ageing and Pensions
The state pension system transfer resources from the current generation of workers to the current generation of
pensioners. As the population has aged the level of resource transfer required has increased. The system cannot be
sustained into the future without significant change.

Four options have been suggested:
Pensioners become poorer relative to the rest of society
Taxes and National Insurance contributions devoted to pensions increase
The rate at which individuals save for retirement increases
The average retirement age increases

Public responses to these options will feature in political debate. However, the Pensions Act 2007 stated that the state
pension aged will be equalized at 65 for men and women between 2010 and 2020. It will be raised to 68 over the 22
year period from 2024.

The Grey Vote
Another feature of demographic aging is that the voting power of the older age group increases. The grey vote is of
major significance to political parties and the needs of the elderly cannot therefore be ignored by those in power.

The Grey Pound
The economic and political purchasing power of the grey pound is also increasing. This is beneficial to companies that
specialize in providing goods and services to older people.

For example:
In the tourist industry, going on a cruise is a popular type of holiday with this age group
Some companies, for example Saga, provide a wide range of leisure services for older people (over 50s)
Some companies, for example B & Q and Homebase, target this age group for their workforce
The growing number of elderly people who live alone has led to the provision of a range of support services,
such as health visitors, meals on wheels, home-help cleaners and drivers for hospital visits
Ageing and Housing
As the number of elderly people and the age to which they live increase, so some degree of segregation has taken place,
particularly in terms of housing. Many elderly people have to decide whether or not to leave the family home when they
are left on their own or have difficulty caring for themselves. Old people living alone in council and Housing Association
houses have found that very often they do not have a choice. Housing departments move them out into sheltered
accommodation or nursing homes because their houses are required for families.

Segregation based on age has manifested itself in a number of ways in towns in the UK:
On council estates it is common to see clusters of purpose built bungalows occupying one small part or parts of
the estate. In some areas masionettes with security access have been built. This type of housing for elderly
people is provided in the belief that it is better for them to live in the community for as long as they are fit
enough. They are often people who have lived in the areas for many years. They have friends and relatives living
locally and they are integrated into social functions such as the church or social clubs.
A more recent provision has been sheltered accommodation a complex of flats or units with some shared
facilities, overseen by a warden or manager. In some cases purpose built blocks of flats, some for single people
and some for married couples, have been constructed. A mobile warden may oversee a number of complexes.
The location of these facilities is only just beginning to establish a pattern in some urban areas.
Nursing homes have been increasing in number of cater for the growing number of elderly people who have
difficulty looking after themselves. Initially, both local authorities and private developers provided such
accommodation, but local authorities have been cutting back on their provision. In many urban areas
concentration of nursing homes are becoming clear. They are very often in both inner and outer suburbs, in
areas where later Georgian, Victoria and Edwardian houses can either be converted or extended for this
purpose. Close links with medical provision are also a factor, and some of the most financially successful nursing
homes are located on a main road into town so as to facilitate the arrival of ambulances.

AGEING POPULATIONS: UK CASE STUDY
Quick facts about the UKs Ageing Population


Consequences of an Ageing population

Solutions/ Strategies to deal with our ageing population









POSITIVE (benefits) NEGATIVE (costs)
SOCIAL


ECONOMIC
POLITICAL