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p
0
l
a
0
l
t
0
Ix; y; u; a; b; D
T
f
X;Y;Q
x; y; udydxdu 2
where X and Y are random coordinates that dene the center
of the elliptical defect, u is the random orientation of the
ellipse semi-axis a, f
X;Y;Q
x; y; u is the joint probability
density function of these three random variables and E[]
stands for expected or mean value. As the center of the
defect can be located anywhere inside the rectangle and the
direction of the semi-axis a can be anyone, the f
X;Y;Q
x; y; u
is given by the product of three independent uniform
distributions, i.e.
f
X;Y;Q
x; y; u
1
l
t
1
l
a
1
p
0 # x # l
t
; 0 # y # l
a
; 0 # u # p
0 otherwise
3
The term Ix; y; u; a; b; D
T
is the indicator function and it
is equal to 1 if the defect is overlapped by the at least one
ultrasound beam from the transducers and 0 otherwise. The
overlapping occurrence can be veried numerically through
standard formulae of analytical geometry. The numerical
process of calculating the probability of overlapping
Fig. 6. The main characteristics of the ultrasonic beam.
A.A. Carvalho et al. / Applied Ocean Research 25 (2003) 235241 238
reduces basically to (a) generating of N articial specimens
(or simulations), each one having the center of the defect
and its orientation generated randomly according to the
distribution given by Eq. (3), and then (b) checking for all
of them whether there is overlapping or not. Therefore, the
Eq. (2) can be written as
POa; b; D
T
<
X
N
i1
Ix
i
; y
i
; u
i
; a; b; D
T
N
4
The number of simulations (articial specimens) N must
be large enough in order to get good condence in the
simulated results. A standard measure of error, as given in
Refs. [8,10], can be used along the simulation process to
determine the number of simulations N needed to attend a
desired level of error.
The present development constitutes in an extension of a
previous work of the authors [10] where only circular
defects have been taken into account. In Ref. [10] it is also
shown that when the defect is circular 2a 2b D and
the inspection grid is square an analytical expression is
obtained for the probability of overlapping.
Although the probability of overlapping does not
represent the complete system PoD, as modeled in Eq. (1),
it is very helpful for specifying the details of an inspection
work because certainly there will be no detection if the
defect is not overlapped by an ultrasound beam from the
transducers.
3.1.1. Some numerical results
The probability of overlapping described earlier is
obtained numerically by considering a specied inspection
grid, a xed relation between the ellipse semi-axes a and b,
i.e. a ab; and the transducers diameter D
T
: However, for
further usage, as in the case of a reliability-based inspection
planning, an analytical curve can be more helpful. It has
been observed through curve tting using the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov test with a signicance level of 5% that the four-
parameter probability distribution proposed by Ochi [11],
among others like Weibull, Lognormal, Frechet and
Gumbel, is the one the ts better the numerical results.
This distribution is given by
POa=b aa
21
; D
B
D
T