An exclusive cover story for April 2013 issue of Goa Today
How Climate Change would impact Goa
and!umar "# $amat %and and landscape of Goa is creation of geological and meteorological forces# &ou get that feeling when you stand at 'ana(i)s Altinho* on Chim+el hilloc! facing 'ana(i* "argao)s monte hilloc!* ,emedias hill of Cansaulim* near lighthouse cliff at Aguada* on the sacred summits of -iddanath* Chandranath and $asainath hills or when you loo! at the marine fossil +eds at -ancoale or -iridao# Goa is a happy accident of nature# ature would ta!e +ac! from Goa what it had created in the past# .nly hilly areas and plateaus would escape the nature)s fury# /o not +uy property in any area of Goa which is (ust 1 to 10 m a+ove mean sea level# /o not +uy property in Goa in areas with geological faults and wea! roc!y strata and soil# /o not +uy property in Goa where thunder+olts would stri!e with higher fre1uency due to peculiar local conditions# /o not +uy property in areas su+(ect to cloud+ursts2short spells of intense rains# Climate change research points to possi+ility that all the properties in low lying areas would have 3ero value in coming decades# That would include Caran3alem* "iramar* Campal +elt and the ri++on development in 4arde3 and -alcete# 5n Goa where our ancestors too! precautions to +uild 6 meters tall external $ha3an em+an!ments the local architects and engineers have failed to factor in the impacts of climate change# The 7/C 'ato pla3a in 'ana(i would turn into a muddy swimming pool in a few years# The present model of Glo+al -ea %evel ,ise 8G-%,9 predicts that a+out five percent of land of state of Goa* 1:000 hectares* would +e claimed +y the advancing sea# Actually when the rising waves stri!e the damage would +e worse# There is little hope for estuarine islands in "andvoi and all the low lying $ha3an lands# .nly the hilloc!s of /ivar* Chorao and -anto 7stevam would rise a+ove the waters# There is no way such irreversi+le su+mergence can +e stopped# The landscape of Goa at present offers two pictures2the su+mergent landmass and the emergent landmass# The entire -alcete coastline is example of emergent landmass# "arine fossils found at Tuem* Camurlim* Chi!halim* Agacaim* Cortalim* -ancoale* near "apusa river* -iridao* 4hati* 4am+olim reveal a violent marine past# The landscape of Goa after a century would reduce the area under emergent landmass# ;nless systematically shifted to higher grounds in ecologically secure locations* the dense population in -alcete * +etween west +an! of river -al and Ara+ian sea would +e wiped out to due to G-%,# Calculations of present land use shows that only <3000 hectares of land in Goa is left for any sort of legal * permissi+le development# =or thousands of years to come the development would have to +e restricted to such a ridiculously small parcel of land unless we sacrifice all the agricultural lands# >hile many middle class and poor Goans can)t afford to +uy a small piece of land and property in their own motherland* their wealthy !iths and !ins are selling old ancestral houses* land* property* whole hilloc!s* +eachside scenic properties* farmlands* anti1ues and furniture to people outside Goa and 5ndia# 5ndirectly these senseless Goans are promoting demographic engineering# The irony is that those Goans who fled to escape conversion to Christianity and later returned to live a peaceful life* li!e my forefathers have +ecome refugees in their own land# Their own communidades are not willing to honora+ly resettle them# 5 am a landless Goan driven out of my ancestral avelim communidade in /ivar island# There are thousands li!e me# 5nternal refugees li!e me need to +e first given special status and offered land for permanent settlement# There is 3ero awareness in Goa on coming tsunami of climate change# -ome seminars* wor!shops are held ritualistically +ut where are the worst case scenarios* the policy papers* the mitigation plans* the reha+ilitation plans?# Climate research from 5. and Goa ;niversity is +uried deep in expensive research papers and inaccessi+le restricted reports# -cientists pu+lish only to advance their careers and not for pu+lic good# 4esides there is a total veil of secrecy on ongoing research* so much so that even if climate researchers +ecome aware of dangers to state of Goa they would not raise an alert# They would patiently wait for the peer review and when it is done the damage* the harm would have +een already caused# 5ndian oceanographers and seismologists were sleeping when Asian megatsunami too! place# -ome of them assured as if they can read the pulse of planet that there is no harm of tsunami from the Ara+ian sea# And if a tsunami from the Ara+ian sea stri!es Goa the only consolation would +e revision of their models# -cientists seem to discard the precautionary principle# This happened after %atur earth1ua!e# 7very 5ndian geophysicist and seismologist true to his salt made the pu+lic +elieve that the +asaltic /eccan plateau is immune to +ig earth1ua!es# 4ut %atur (olts stripped them of their intellectual arrogance# The meteorite stri!e in ,ussia recently showed the ill preparedness of glo+al scientific community to anticipate and deal with such catastrophic hits# 5n 5taly the seismologists were sent to (ail for misleading predictions# >hy there is no demand for Goa)s special ecological status on account of vulnera+ility to climate change?# The demand for special economic status for Goa is a diversionary political demand proving the failure of democracy in Goa to exploit the full legislative* administrative powers of statehood status# The union territory status was an economically highly su+sidi3ed status given to Goa* /aman and /iu after li+eration# Central government was also li+eral enough to permit continuation of many 'ortuguese legislations li!e the uni1ue civil code# Goans gave up union territorial status and craved and clamoured for statehood# ow* 26 years later they have reali3ed that they have created a +eautiful mess out of statehood# -o instead of accepting the +lame they have raised the vague demand of @ -pecial status) without +eing clear a+out it# 5 suspect that the +asic demand is not so much a+out A-pecial status) +ut a status li!e Bammu and $ashmir or perhaps an autonomous status li!e Hong $ong and "acao# -pecial status is a +eautiful mirage to +e chased till a critical demographic transition occurs in Goa C a transition which would ma!e non Goan migrants ma(ority# The /A government re(ected demand to change the Gadgil "u!her(ee formula unfavoura+le to Goa# The ;'A government also refused the demand# 5f Goa really needs special status then it should +e Aspecial ecological status 8-7-9 )# 4ecause as compared to any other coastal state in 5ndia* Goa is most vulnera+le to impact of glo+al warming* climate change and sea level rise# And what government of 5ndia* ".7=* the planning commission have done a+out these concerns ? 2 practically nothing# The Goa team which ma!es presentations to the planning commission has also neglected this issue# As compared to any other state in 5ndia* the smallest one in area and population* our state of Goa represents a very complex geological and ecological history# Goa is virtually a miracle of nature# 7arth)s ancient history survives in Goa# The former head of department of earth sciences* Goa ;niversity* 'rof# A# G# /essai has provided a glimpse into the geological history of Goa# According to him 2the Goa Group typically has a greenstone dominated se1uence at the +ase which is overlain +y a metaconglomerate over which rests a dominantly clastic se1uence# The metaconglomerate 8tilloid9 was assigned the status of a para2conglomerate# The granitic gneisses in Goa are exposed at four different localities and are referred to as 8i9 Chandranath granite gneiss* 8ii9 Tamdi felspathic gneiss* 8iii9 /udhsagar granite* and 8iv9 Canacona granite# They are all considered as intrusives into the supracrustals 8greenstones9# -ome of planet)s oldest roc!s and oldest microfossils survive in Goa# Anmode Ghat Trondh(emite Gneiss is exposed at Anmode 8Tamdi felspathic gneiss of Go!ul et al# 1D:09 along the 'ana(i24elgaum ational Highway 8H <A9 and is amongst the oldest gneisses from 5ndia that has yielded an ,+E-r whole2roc! age of 3<00F1<0 "illion years 8/houndial et al# 1D:G9# The 5ndian plate drifted northward for 100 million years +efore it had a soft collision with the 7urasian plate during middle 7ocene* a+out 00 million years ago# /uring the course of continued northward drift* around 6D260 "ya 8%ate cretaceous9* widespread volcanism too! place over the 5ndian landmass and created the deccan trap continental flood +asalt province# 5t is interesting that the flood +asalt did not cover Goa# 5f that were to happen then perhaps the history of Goa would have ta!en a different turn# Go!ul 81D:09 has o+served that during upper cretaceous2%ower 7ocene period the area to the south of the present position of deccan trap in Goa should have +een a prominent topographic high which restricted the spread of trap flows to the south# This small reniform state has seen the Hadean eon2 when life arose on 7arth# The Archean roc!s 8 3:00 to 2000 million years9 correspond to the era of first eu!aryotes# 5t was a very cold climate and atmosphere was getting richer in oxygen# 5 identified stromatolite deposits in upper reaches of "hadei river indicating presence of a paleoreef where the river exists today# Goa witnessed protero3oic eon which produced first s!eletoni3ed animals# 7arth was passing through several episodes of free3ing# Huge num+er of species got eradicated !nown as mass extinction of 7diacarans# Then followed the 'aleo3oic era which +egan around 0<3 million years ago and lasted till 200 million years ago# This era produced 'ermian* Car+oniferous* /evonian* -ilurian* .rdovician* Cam+rian periods# Three mass extinctions of species too! place during this era# Goa was coloni3ed +y land plants# -ome of the plant megafossils in "hadei +asin may +elong to this period# 5t was a ma(or ice age# The "eso3oic era saw cretaceous* Burassic and Triassic periods and the +irth and death of /inosaurs# /inosaurs stopped migrating into south 5ndia a+out 160 million years ago# Their fossils have +een found in "aharashtra and Tamil adu# Careful research may reveal their presence in Goa# -ome tri+al children are reported to +e playing with fossili3ed dinosaur eggs# The volcanism must have !illed them# The fossils of ,hinoceres decanensis in Ghatpra+ha valley on +order of Goa indicates the ancient megafauna which is now extinct# A+out 60 million years ago the present Ceno3oic era +egan# 5t was the age of mammals# 5n the "iocene period* a+out 20 to : million years ago* Goa)s climate was tropical e1uatorial# A+out two million years ago it changed to strongly monsoonic# 5t was 'liocene period# Huge floods could have ta!en place during this period# A relatively dry seasonal climate followed in lower 'leistocene a+out two million years ago# 5t ended seven la!h years ago# That was the real +eginning of a monsoonic seasonal climate# -o we can conclude that the monsoon really +egan in middle 'leistocene# -trong monsoon climate was witnessed in early to late 'leistocene period# The geomorphic data is present in reddish soils# This was the age of hunter food gatherers# Humans entered Goa for the first time# The late 'leistocene had a wea! to moderate monsoon climate# 5t saw +irth of sta+le sand dunes# The humans in Goa marched towards the coast# The terminal 'leistocene saw distinctly wea! monsoons# This was a+out 10220 thousand years ago# Then Goa came out of the ice age# The early Holocene 8 10 to < thousand years ago9 saw strong monsoons# The evidence for such a climate is found in freshwater la!es* entrenched streams and sta+le dunes# This was also period of +eginning of agriculture# A+out <000 years ago monsoons +ecame moderate# This phase has lasted till today# 4ut human interference has stamped its) impact on glo+al weather and it also impacts Goa)s weather# The meteorological records of Goa are availa+le for a+out 110 years and fairly good records are availa+le for past 60 years# >hat these records indicate is the rising degree of uncertainty a+out weather pattern# At the end of the monsoon everyone loo!s at the total rainfall# 4ut hidden in this figure is the story of climate change2the erratic distri+ution of the rainfall# The daily maximum temperatures are on rise for all summer months clearly proving the local impact of glo+al climate change# -ome of the warmest days were experienced in =e+ruary 2013 and it is difficult to predict whether this year the mercury would touch and cross <0 deg# Celcius# o+ody writes on climate change and history of our changing planet li!e 'eter >ard* 'rofessor of +iology and 7arth and space sciences at the ;niversity of >ashington# 5 purchased his ma(or availa+le titles from =lip!art online +oo!shop and their reading offered me a clear perspective of the past* present and future of 7arth)s climate# 5n @ The "edea hypothesis) he propses that life is at its) worst enemy# 5n another +oo! A The flooded earth2 our future in a world without ice caps) he paints the scenarios in 200* 2100* 2300 and +eyond# 7ven if we stop all green house gas emissions to control glo+al warming he says that the seas would rise +y a catastrophic three metres +y 2100# He predicts that cities li!e "iami* Henice* Amsterdam would have to +e a+andoned# 'rofessor >ard)s +oo!s would sha!e the politicians and pu+lic in Goa# 5ndians are !nown to wa!e up late to face any natural catastrophe# The @sosegado) Goans would also wa!e up very late* may +e past A#/# 2000260 to grasp their ecological destiny# Three years ago* 5 persuaded my +oard of studies in the su+(ect of 4otany at Goa ;niversity to change the old fashioned plant ecology sylla+us and accept the new credit course in Advanced 7cology in which 5 introduced a complete module on 7cology of Climate change# >hile teaching this paper we could also do a little +it of field experimentation# >e tried sampling pure rainwater under sterile conditions and unexpectedly found presence of several microorganisms in it Ceu+acterial cells* cynao+acteria* microalgae* fungal spores and filaments raising serious 1uestions a+out the role of these tiny creatures in monsoon clouds and climate change# Correspondence with 4rent C# Christner* /epartment of 4iological -ciences* %ouisiana -tate ;niversity encouraged us to develop the new area of A"icro+iology of CloudsI further# ow 5 plan to collect rainwater samples from many locations in Goa during 2013 monsoon and identify the micro+iological dimension# 5t is li!ely to provide some +ioindicators of climate change# 7arlier 5 had heard Goa)s own climate researcher Boa1uim Goes* %amont research professor* %amont2/oherty 7arth .+servatory* Colum+ia ;niversity spea!ing on +lowing of dust from 5ranian desert towards 5ndia* rising temperature of 5ndian ocean and Ara+ian sea* plan!tonic and algal +looms depleting dissolved .xygen in sea* acidification of the Ara+ian sea and conse1uent impact on Ara+ian sea fisheries# 'rofessor Goes had painted a very gloomy picture of climate change in 5ndia and around the 5ndian ocean +asin and he would +e an indispensa+le intellectual asset to government of 5ndia and Goa in planning any machinery* mechanism and infrastructure for coping with climate change# >e don)t need roc!et science and expensive instruments to see the local impacts of climate change# 5t is happening right in our +ac!yard# Trees flowering early* +irds +reeding early* mushrooms sprouting at unusual time* insects proliferating in off seasons* termites mounting voracious attac!s on household furniture* a +eautiful rain+ow in middle of warm =e+ruary* sudden development of mini tornadoes or dust devils lifting gar+age s!y high* increasing num+er of lightning +olts stri!ing the ground* erratic rains* long dry spells in monsoon followed +y intense showers* high intensity rains in -eptem+er* a cloud+urst dropping half a meter of rain and causing unprecedented floods in Canacona* sudden intrusion +y sea in Canacona and 'ernem damaging the canoes* continuous coastal erosion* satellites reporting Goa)s atmosphere covered in @smo!e) * sudden spurt in respiratory illnesses* allergies* s!in diseases* viral diseases* water reservoirs rapidly going dry2 all these are indicators of climate change and driversE forces which cause it# The nature spea!s in complex language# The local impact of glo+al climate change is discerni+le in Goa# 5n addition to climate change there is also impact of four ma(or environmental drivers2 mining 8post 1D<09* ur+ani3ation 8post21D619* 5ndustriali3ation 8post2 1DG19 and tourism 8post2 1DG29 which have strongly impacted Goa# 7xposure of green hillsides* heavy concreti3ation of the surface has changed the local heat +udget# The ancient heat sin!s2 green +elts* natural orchards* small and large la!es* ponds* tan!s have vanished# 7arlier microclimate in villages used to get controlled +y landscape mosaic nursed +y the communidades# There were wind+rea!s in coastal areas and on plateaus comprising thic!* tall dense coconut groves or +am+oos# This was followed +y rows of useful trees2mango* (ac!fruit* tamarind* ficus# .ld drainage systems were integrated in natural contours and followed the hydrological setting# -o* small impacts of climate change were cushioned# This age old traditional capacitance of <00 Goan villages was compromised +y the (uggernaut of ur+ani3ation# -o the already torn ecological fa+ric of Goa is now expected to face the fearful onslaught of climate change# There is no capacitance to survive massive cloud+urst or a ma(or cyclone# There is no capacitance to withstand a prolonged heat wave# There is only supply side management which encourages people to waste pota+le water# /espite good intentions of the government Goa faces acute water scarcity# The surface water resources availa+ility is purely notional# 5t is computed as a function of average rainfall# 4ut what if rains fail for two or more years?# The government would have to factor in such worst case scenarios and +egin planning for desalination plants in coastal areas# 5t would +e now much cheaper to run these plants on natural gas# The ill preparedness of Goa in health sector is also a ma(or pro+lem +ecause >H. is concerned a+out emergence of new human pathogens due to rising temperatures and climate change# Climate change would heavily favour insect population in Goa# Arthropod +orne fevers would hold a threat# ew strains of viruses would play havoc# -!in cancers would increase# Heat stro!es would !ill vulnera+le people# Children +etween 0 to 0 years of age are very vulnera+le to climate change# They would need a special protective program# Climate change demands switch over to special crops* special diets* special life styles* adaptive nutrition# The school calendars may have to +e reorgani3ed to avoid periods of uncomforta+le weather# The government of 5ndia has no specific mitigation plan for the extremely vulnera+le state of Goa# .ne full day needs to +e reserved +y the legislative assem+ly of Goa only to discuss the emerging threat due to climate change# 5t is no more a purely academic matter# The chairman of 5'CC* /r# ,#$# 'achauri has spo!en at least three times in Goa in past one year on climate change# -cientists and academicians wor!ing on climate change need to +e more open* more proactive# 5n the coming years politicians and people of Goa would prove "ar! Twain correct# The famous American writer had once reportedly 1uipped2 A 7very+ody tal!s a+out weather +ut no+ody does anything a+out itI# Goa and Goans would continue to tal! a+out changing weather* +ut who would do anything a+out it?# How and >hen?# Any guess?#