Iatmi 10-003

IATMI 10-003 1
Combining Reservoir Modeling and Analytical Calculation to

Reduce Uncertainty in the Analysis of Enhance Oil Recovery (EOR)
with limited resources
By
Yusni Aditiah Rachman, Tri Firmanto

Abstract
As a result of rapidly increasing computer
power, these days 3D reservoir modeling is
commonly used in the petroleum industry to
better understand reservoir behavior and
thereby minimize risk and uncertainty.
However, integrated reservoir modeling
studies require a long time to obtain good
quality results, especially if history-matching is
required. Also, significant resources (staff,
software and hardware) are required.
Reservoir modeling studies for secondary and
tertiary recovery take even longer than for
primary recovery because of the history-
matching.
To estimate incremental oil recovery from
Enhanced oil Recovery (EOR), an alternative
to reservoir modeling is to use analytical
calculations, which requires much less time
and fewer resources than reservoir modeling.
The downside with analytical calculations is
the simplifying assumptions mean the results
have greater uncertainty.
This paper discusses the procedure used to
evaluate incremental oil recovery from EOR
from the Melibur oil field using analytically
formulae, with the help of the existing reservoir
modeling results and limited resources. By
using the results of reservoir modeling as an
input in analytical calculations, the uncertainty
in the result should be reduced. The workflow
in this paper covers geoscience and
engineering aspects, and considers the
economic results.
This method can be used as a screening tool
to evaluation alternative EOR techniques for a
field, before more detailed studied are
performed.
Keyword: Enhance Oil Recovery, Reservoir
simulation, remaining oil and recoverable oil,
deterministic and probabilistic economic
analysis.

Introduction
EOR is increasing oil recovery by the injection
of materials not normally present in the
reservoir. The objective(s) of EOR processes
are to improve sweep efficiency and/or to
reduce capillary and interfacial forces. There
are many EOR techniques, of which the most
commonly applied are thermal processes and
chemical flood.
Different to primary recovery process, applying
EOR requires much investigation and trials on
various scales. There is no absolute answer
to select the best EOR method for every
reservoir. Each EOR method has its specific
application. However, taking advantage of
published industry experience in analogous
fields in SPE papers and others can narrow
down the alternatives.
Remaining oil is a key parameter in EOR
selection and application, because it
determines the potential incremental oil
recovery by EOR application which is a key
input to estimate the economic value of the
EOR project.
Many authors have published analytical
formulae to quickly estimate incremental oil
recovery from the application of EOR. Each
formula has advantages and limitations,
however, the objective is always the same.
This paper estimates incremental oil recovery
using Gommas method for a steam flood and
the Buckley-Leverett method for water and
chemical floods. The input parameters for
these formulae came from the output of a
history-matched reservoir simulation model,
geological parameters and general properties
of the Melibur oil field.

IATMI 10-003 2
Gomaas Method
One of the important parameters in a steam
flood is steam quality. Steam quality at bottom-
hole conditions can be estimated using the
equation:
|
|
\
|
(
=
v R
R S
t wh bh
L T
T T
D h x x
1328
) 310 (
) (

Where,
Hw Hv Lv =
Steam quality influences the heating injection
rate and the injection period. The theoretical
heating injection rate can be calculated using
the equation:
) 3048 . 0 * 4047 (
) 1 ( ( 1000
0
h A
H H x h x I
q
w bh v bh s
h
+ =
=
The effective heat injection rate is lower due to
heat loss. The effective heat injection rate can
be estimated using the formula:
) 1 (
hv h he
f Y q q =
Therefore, we can estimate the steam injection
period and mass of steam required from the
equation below:
) 3600 * 24 (
he
e
i
q
q
t =
1000 / ) 3600 * 24 (
i s s
t I M =
The net recoverable oil by steam flood can be
calculated using the equation:
req Fuel rec Gross rec Net _ _ _ =
Where,
R N rec Gross
om
* _ =
1000000 / 065 . 0 * 293 . 6 * _
s
M req Fuel =

Water Flood/Chemical Flood
The common formula to estimate oil recovery
for a water or chemical flood is expressed by
multiplying volumetric and displacement
efficiency.
D V A R
E E E E =
Where for a 5-Spot pattern, the volumetric
efficiency is estimated as:
,
[ ]
) 4394 . 0 ) 123 . 0 ln( 3048 . 0
511 . 0 ) 0712 . 0 ln( 2062 . 0 1 /( 1
0
0
+ + +
+ =
M
f M E
w A

X E X E X
E X X E
V
4 77 . 2 ) ln / 4 3 . 4 ( ) (ln 3
62 . 4 ) (ln 016 . 0 ) (ln 182 . 0 199 . 0
3
2
+
+ + =

) / ( 1
o oi oi o D
B S B S E =

Resources
This study was conducted to identify EOR
potential in the Melibur oil field in the Malacca
Strait PSC. This study used limited resources
as follows:
1. One Senior Reservoir Engineer, one
Reservoir Engineer and one
Geologist.
2. One license for a reservoir modeling
software and one license for a black
oil simulator.
3. One computer.
The time required for this study was less than
one month. This included developing a
spreadsheet for EOR calculations, and
developing a spreadsheet probabilistic
economic model. The 3D reservoir model and
history-matched reservoir simulation was
developed before this study started.

Getting Input from the Reservoir
Simulation
As mentioned above, the main parameter in
incremental oil recovery calculations is
remaining oil. Therefore, the first step was to
create a Hydrocarbon Pore Volume (HPV)
property for each cell at the time when EOR is
to be initiated. The procedure continues as
follows:

IATMI 10-003 3
1. Sum HPV vertically for each zone
(
=
=
n k
m k
Bo
So Vb. .
)
2. Select the EOR target area by filtering
out cells that contain HPV below the
chosen minimum.
3. Calculate the oil in place in the EOR.
4. Calculate the flood area.
5. Determine the bulk volume of the flood
area.
6. Calculate the weighted average oil
saturation in the flood area using the
equation:
=
) . (
) . . (
NTG
NTG So
So

7. Determine the weighted average
porosity and NTG in the same way as
the oil saturation.
8. Calculate gross thickness using the
equation:
area flood
Vb
h
gross
_
=
Then use the weighted averages from the
reservoir simulation as input for the analytical
calculation. The idea is that parameters from a
history-matched reservoir simulation would
reduce the uncertainty in the analytical
estimate of incremental oil recovery.
The HPV property and the selected EOR area
are shown in Figure 1 and 2 respectively.
Results from the reservoir simulation used as
input in analytical calculation are listed in
Table-1.

Results
The spreadsheet calculations and results of
the analytical estimate of incremental oil
recovery for a steam flood, water flood,
polymer flood and ASP flood are shown in
Figures 3, 4, 5 and 6 respectively.
Incremental oil recovery from a water flood
estimated from the reservoir simulation and
from the analytical calculation using this
method agreed within 10%.
Using this method, we can quickly estimate
the potential incremental oil recovery for
selected EOR methods, while reducing
uncertainty in the result.

Economic Analysis
Both deterministic and probabilistic economic
analyses were performed. The assumptions
used in the economic analysis are tabulated in
Table-2. The deterministic economic results
for the medium case are listed in Table-3. The
uncertainty tree for the probabilistic economic
analysis is shown in Figure 7.
The medium-case deterministic economic
analysis suggests that an ASP flood is the
most attractive EOR method for the Melibur oil
field.
However, the probabilistic economic analysis
indicates ASP flood has higher uncertainty
compared to a steam flood or polymer flood.
As we can see in Figure-8, steam flood and
polymer flood has higher chance of making
money.
In all cases, it was found that EOR has the
potential to increase the economic value of
this field.

Future Work
Apply this method to identify the EOR potential
of other oil fields in EMP, and extend to other
oil fields in Indonesia.
Develop a probabilistic method (Monte Carlo
simulation) for the analytical estimation of
incremental oil recovery from EOR.

Conclusions
The incremental oil recovery estimate from
EOR using analytical calculations can be
improved by reducing the uncertainty in the
input parameters by using the output from a
history-matched reservoir simulation model.
The difference in incremental oil recovery
estimated from the analytical calculation and

IATMI 10-003 4
from the reservoir simulation for a water flood
was acceptable at less than 10%.
This method can be used for EOR-screening
studies to estimate potential incremental oil
recovery from EOR.
Economic analysis is needed to identify
whether EOR can increase the economic
value of a field.

Acknowledgments
We would like to express our thanks to Kondur
Petroleum, S.A. for encouraging us and for
giving permission to publish this paper, and to
Dr. Ezzat E. Gomaa for his advice and
assistance during this study.

Nomenclature
wh
x = wellhead steam quality
bh
x = bottom hole steam quality
S
T
= steam temperature,
0
C
R
T = reservoir temperature,
0
C
v
L = latent heat of vaporization, kJ/kg
v
H = steam enthalpy, kJ/kg
w
H = water enthalpy, kJ/kg
hv
f = vertical heat loss, W/gross m
3

s
I = steam injection rate, kg/s
h
q = heat injection rate, W/gross m
3
he
q = effective heat injection rate, W/gross
m
3

s
M = total steam mass, ton/pattern
om
N = Mobile oil in place, STB
R
E = EOR recovery
A
E = areal sweep efficiency
V
E = vertical sweep efficiency
D
E = displacement sweep efficiency
M = Mobility ratio
w
f = fractional flow
A = pattern area, acre
h = Gross thickness, ft
b
V = Bulk volume, Bbl
= porosity
o
S = oil saturation
o
B = Oil formation volume factor, bbl/STB
NTG = Net to Gross
NPV = Net Present Value, US$
IRR = Internal Rate of Return, %
CPI = Capital Performance Index
SPE = Society of Petroleum Engineers

References

1. Jeff, Jones, Thermal Recovery by Steam
Injection, Petroleum Engineering
Handbook Vol. V. Chapter 15, SPE, 2007

2. Aurel, Carcoana, Applied Enhanced Oil
Recovery, Prentice Hall, 1992.

3. Gomaa, Ezzat, EOR Mechanism, KPSA
In-House Training, 2008.

Table-1 Reservoir Simulation Output for Input in Analytical Calculation
Parameter\Zone A B C All Zone
OOIP, MMSTB 14.1 61.4 17.5 92.9
OIP @Jan-2012, MMSTB 10.0 39.8 15.0 64.8
hgross, ft 5 30 11 46
Ave. Por 0.31 0.32 0.31 0.31
Ave. NTG 0.98 0.94 0.94 0.97
So 0.423 0.451 0.457 0.443

IATMI 10-003 5
Table-2 Assumptions for Economic Analysis
Parameter Low Medium High
Oil Price, US$/Bbl
All case 50 60 80
Fix Opex, m US$/year
All case 1 1 1
Capex, m US$
Basecase 0 0 0
Steam 70 50 35
ASP 70 50 35
Polymer flood 70 50 35
Water flood 50 35 20
Facility Capex, m US$
Basecase 0 0 0
Steam 40 30 20
ASP 25 17.5 12.5
Polymer flood 17.5 12.5 10
Water flood 15 10 7.5
Opex, US$/Bbl
Basecase 3 5 10
Steam 15 10 7
ASP 25 17.5 12.5
Polymer flood 20 15 10
Water flood 15 10 5

Table-3 Summary Deterministic economic analysis for medium case

Figure-1 HPV model property from the reservoir simulation output

IATMI 10-003 6

Figure-2 Selected EOR area based on remaining oil

Estimating steam requirements
R, % of Nom 0.76
Effective heat injected 0.65 Billion J/gross m3
Depth 1000 ft
Depth 305 m
Assumed well head steam quality 0.75
Assumed steam injection rate/well 4 kg/s 2174.861 bcwpd
Wellbore quality gradient (bare tubing) 2.30E-04 /m
Assume Injection pressure 800 psia 5520
Injection steam temperature 270 C
Latent heat of vaporization 1605 kJ/kg
Bottom hole steam quality 0.70
Y, Heat Utilization Factor 0.97
Steam enthalpy, Hv 2790 kJ/kg
Water enthalpy, Hw 1185 kJ/kg
Refference Enthalpy, H0 251 kJ/kg
Heat injection rate 5.01 W/gross m3
Vertical heat loss, fhv 0.35
Effective usefull heat injection rate 3.158805 W/gross m3
Injection periods 2382 days 6.53 years
Total steam mass 823219 ton/pattern
6.53
Oil Recovery Calculation
OIP/pattern 1.296 MMSTB/pattern
Nom/pattern 0.943 MMSTB/pattern
Gross oil recovery 0.717 MMSTB/pattern
Fuel requirements 0.337 MMSTB/pattern
Net oil recovery 0.38 MMSTB/pattern
OOIP/pattern 1.859 MMSTB/pattern
Np @ flood start 0.563 MMSTB/pattern
Ultimate recovery factor 0.688
Total Additional Reserves Calculation
Number of pattern 50
Practical number of pattern 70% 35
Total additional reserves 13.3 MMSTB

Figure-3 Spreadsheet for Steam flood oil recovery calculation

IATMI 10-003 7
Waterflood
Fractional Flow of Water 0.96
Water saturation behind front 0.6 from Chart fw Melibur
Oil saturation behind front 0.4
Displacement efficiency 0.084
Mobility total behind front 0.484
Mobility @ intial 0.073
Waterflood mobility ratio 6.67
M
0
6.84
Areal sweep efficiency @ bt ( five spot) 0.86
Distance netween injector-producer 242 m 795 ft
Gravity number 0.069
Ngh/L 0.0052
VDP 0.75
X 0.94
WOR 24.0
Y 6.53
Vertical sweep efficiency 0.568
Er 0.041
Oil recovery calculation
Nom/pattern 0.596 MMSTB/pattern
Oil recovery 0.025 MMSTB/pattern
Possible pattern 50
Practical number of pattern 35
Estimate additional reserves 0.9 MMSTB

Figure-4 Spreadsheet for Water flood oil recovery calculation
Polymer
Sw
p
0.217
Fractional Flow of Water 0.95
M
0
0.68
Ngh/L 0.0026
VDP 0.75
X 0.94
WOR 19.0
Y 31.51
Vertical sweep efficiency 0.836
Er 0.245
Possible pattern 50

Figure-5 Spreadsheet for Polymer flood oil recovery calculation

IATMI 10-003 8
ASP
Nvc surfactant 0.0030
Swc/Swc
max
0.47
Sor/Sor max 0.200
Swc
s
0.120
Sorw
s
0.048
Sws -0.414
Fractional Flow 0.95
M
0
0.68
Ngh/L 0.0052
VDP 0.75
X 0.94
WOR 19.0
Y 31.51
Vertical sweep efficiency 0.836 from Chart III.20, EOR Book
Er 0.519
Possible pattern 50
From Chart De-saturation curve

Figure-6 Spreadsheet for ASP flood oil recovery calculation

Figure-7 Example of decision tree diagram that used as model for probabilistic economic analysis

IATMI 10-003 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
P
r
o
b
a
b
.

A
c
u
m
.
NPV, US$ M
EOR S-Curve - Melibur Field
ASP Flood-EMV = US$ 11.8 m
Polymer Flood-EMV = US$ 5.87 m
Steam Flood-EMV = 8.2 m
Water Flood-EMV = US$ -9.2 m

Figure-8 S-Curve for each EOR method in Melibur Field

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Combining Reservoir Modeling and Analytical Calculation to

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