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INVAST INSIGHTS

WEEK COMMENCING 5 May 2014




INVAST INSIGHTS NEWSLETTER www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278


Invast Insights - Week commencing 5 May 2014

This week we look at the following topics:
Monthly portfolio review, sell in May?
We update our three portfolios with outlook summaries.
Bank earnings season underway, ANZ
overvalued?
Australian banks are reporting this month.
Are they priced to perfection? We explore.
Update on US corporate earnings season
We look through the key numbers and
pinpoint where we think the US markets are
heading.
Technical update on the copper price
The most important industrial metal. We tell you where it is going.
Key gold price forecast webinar on this week
A great opportunity to hear from our own Senior Technical Strategist on where the yellow metal is
heading.

Monthly portfolio review sell in May?
All three of our portfolios continue to track in positive territory despite the huge volatility on the
Australian market. As the iron ore price falls from around US$120-130 per tonne to US$105 per tonne.
Many investors have seen the value of their mining shares follow the same direction lower. None of
our portfolios hold any direct mining shares and this has been intentional throughout the year.

We continue to see our most conservative portfolio the Drawdown Phase portfolio performing
above target. The Wealth Creation portfolio remains a little disappointing but still remains in positive
territory. We added three new stocks last month which we think will be excellent profit generators
into the future. We took losses on some positions earlier this year because we have a firm stop loss
policy. This helps minimise any nasty surprises which is necessary for any growth investor.
Quote of the week
Ive missed more than 9000 shots in my
career. Ive lost almost 300 games. 26 times I
have been trusted to take the game winning
shot and have missed. Ive failed over and
over and over again in my life. And that is
why I succeed.
- Michael Jordan


INVAST INSIGHTS NEWSLETTER www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278

Back to the Drawdown Phase portfolio and the excellent results! Its not every day that you see the
most conservative portfolio shooting the lights out but it is a feature of how we think about portfolios
at Invast we dont benchmark to an index, we just etc expectations and try to deliver on them at an
absolute basis. The Wealth Preservation portfolio has seen some stability return with standout
performances from Woolworths and Woodside Petroleum both star performers over the past few
months.

We were also fortunate to book a nice fully franked dividend from Woolworths in two of the portfolios
while the share price has rallied. Westfield is starting to rerate slowly, still below our entry level but
the market is finally starting to see what we have been talking about over the past few months. We
think Westfield shares can continue to rise above $11 per share and should hold that level as dividends
are paid in the next few months.

Wealth Creation Portfolio (May Review)
Security Units Entry Market Profit/Loss Position
Value
Long Tandou (Shares ASX) 20,000 $ 0.460 $ 0.480 $ 400.00 $ 9,600.00
Long Capilano Honey (Shares ASX) 1,905 $ 5.300 $ 5.550 $ 476.19 $ 10,000.00
Long Clearview Wealth (Shares
ASX)
13,350 $ 0.750 $ 0.760 $ - $ 10,146.00
Long Oz Forex (Shares ASX) 3,125 $ 3.200 $ 3.150 $ (156.25) $ 10,000.00
Short S&P500 (A$) 6 $ 1,831.10 $ 2,023.68 $ (1,155.49) $ 9,831.11
Cash $ 1,215.21
AUDUSD at time of calculation 0.9290 $ 1,244.62 $ 50,792.32
Total return as of May 2.5%
Annualised since inception 4.3%

Wealth Preservation Portfolio (May Review)
Security Units Entry Market Profit/Loss Value
STW ETF (Shares ASX) 209 $ 47.90 $ 51.69 $ 792.11 $ 10,803.21
IJP ETF (Shares ASX) 801 $ 12.48 $ 12.15 $ (264.33) $ 9,732.15
Westfield Group (Shares ASX) 898 $ 11.13 $ 10.95 $ (161.64) $ 9,833.10
Woolworths Group (Shares
ASX)
289 $ 34.59 $ 37.32 $ 788.97 $ 10,785.48
Woodside Petro. (Shares ASX) 263 $ 37.96 $ 41.04 $ 810.04 $ 10,793.52
Cash $ 932.70
$ 2,170.34 $ 52,880.16
Total return as of May 4.3%
Annualised since inception 7.4%


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Drawdown Phase Portfolio (May Review)
Security Units Entry Market Profit/Loss Value
TAHHA (Shares ASX) 98 $ 102.10 $ 100.00 $ (205.80) $ 9,800.00
GMPPA (Shares ASX) 101 $ 98.85 $ 100.55 $ 171.70 $ 10,155.55
Telstra (Shares ASX) 2053 $ 4.87 $ 5.22 $ 718.55 $ 10,716.66
Woolworths Group (Shares ASX) 289 $ 34.59 $ 37.32 $ 788.97 $ 10,785.48
AMP Subordinated Notes (AMPHA) 95 $ 100.00 $ 101.59 $ 151.05 $ 9,651.05
Cash (includes future dividends) $ 1,883.19
$ 2,431.10 $ 52,991.93
Total return as of May 4.9%
Annualised since inception 8.3%

We wrote an article last week about stocks likely to enter into our three portfolios. If you missed it,
you can read it by clicking here. The key priorities are Toll Holdings and Macquarie Group. We are
inclined to take profit on Woodside Petroleum and add some Macquarie to the portfolio. We are
also contemplating adding Toll Holdings because of the solid 5% fully franked dividend yield to the
Drawdown Phase Portfolio as the TAHHA mature this month.

We will have around $9,8000 to invest in Toll. We think the business is stable and leveraged to a
turnaround in the domestic economy. The AMP and Goodman notes are holding steady and providing
a nice income stream, its a shame that we didnt take on board the additional risk a few months ago
via the Healthscope notes (the business now looks to be subject to a takeover with plenty of interested
parties) but our focus here is to be comfortable. The Drawdown Phase portfolio is running at an
annualised return rate of 8.3% which is above target and might even rise higher as more dividends are
booked.

So in summary, we plan to replace the matured TAHHA notes in the portfolio with Toll Holding shares
at a price of $5.28. Well hold off selling Woodside in favour of Macquarie until next month. Macquarie
has just reported a solid set of numbers and will be buying back shares on market as of the time of
writing. We need to spend a little bit of time digesting the earnings numbers and response to
shareprice before making the switch. With the Toll Holdings position, we need to act quickly since the
TAHHA notes have matured as of the beginning of May. Stay tuned for more updates, but for now all
looks well on the portfolio front!



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Bank earnings season underway, ANZ overvalued?
Three of the big four Australian banks will report their earnings in May. Commonwealth Bank is the
exception, it has a June balance date for its financial year and tends to report its earnings with most
other industrial companies in February and August. Our preference in the space remains ANZ for the
following reasons:

* ANZ is one of the few Australian organisations that is legitimately
leveraged to the growth of Asian economies. Its not just about having
a branch or office in Asia, its about cementing business relationships.
ANZ has been working hard on this over the past decade, its not an
easy achievement. It takes time and as a bank which is in the business of pricing risk, there will be
losses in Asia which we havent yet seen on a large scale. ANZs business in Asia has grown at a
compound annual rate of around 36% over the past few years which is a multiple of the growth rate
in the much more mature Australian market.

* ANZ not only has business assets in Asia but it actually gets Asia. What we mean by this is ANZ
understands the culture, the business realities and the situation on the grown. Many western
companies have tried to impose their way of doing business in Asia as a means to generate profit. In
the banking space this leads to disasters western financial institutions can make profit for a short
period of time but when things heat up and the economy cools, they are often the largest depressed
sellers. We feel that ANZ understands what it takes to be successful in Asia and has built its business
around the Asian market environment as opposed to exporting its Australian bank into Asian markets.

* ANZ understands the benefits of integrating its Asian growth strategy into its core Australian market.
Your author was recently walking past an ANZ branch in Hurstville a suburb of South Sydney which
has a very strong Chinese speaking population. He noticed the branch was designed, positioned and
aimed at facilitating Chinese speaking business. The signs were written in Chinese, the ATM machines
were multi lingual and the staff were all trained to deal with the realities of dealing with the Chinese
speaking market. Your author spoke to the bank managed who said that ANZ is one of the few (need
to confirm this) Australian banks that actually lends to Chinese investors who wish to purchase assets
in Australia. This integration is key to building regional relationships, the same way that HSBC for
example has become a truly global organisation with portability in its services.


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* The above is one anecdote only but the numbers dont lie either. In markets it is dangerous to just
base ones investment conviction on a single anecdote. We admit this firmly and accordingly, we
analyse ANZs recent report card below.

The first thing we look at when a bank reports its profit is margins and asset quality. The earnings of a
bank can be distorted by many different factors. Banks earn their money different to a super market.
A super markets earnings are a function of how much product it sells, the balance sheet adjustments
are limited to certain inventory treating items. For a bank, the numbers can really be subject to many
elements at managements discretion.

Your author covered the Australian banks during the global financial crisis in a previous role, we saw
just how quickly earnings can change for a bank based on certain balance sheet risk items arising. For
example, a banks management team may determine a certain corporate loan is a performing loan.
But if the company files for receivership tomorrow, even though the account is up to date, the reality
might mean that the bank would need to immediately take a write down on that loan if it thinks that
it cannot recover a 100% of its face value. Thats why here at Invast we spend so much time on asset
quality.

Most of the financial press and analyst community focus on earnings and dividends. We think this is a
secondary issue. If I take $100 from you and pay you $5 or $6 return, the difference between the two
amounts is 20% ($1/$5*100) and so I could report this as a 20% increase in the amount of money I am
paying you back. But what really matters is that $100 which I have taken from you. If the value of that
$100 is now worth $90, the profit that I have paid you is completely offset by the $10 destruction in
value to your investment. Banks tend to have a habit of increasing their earnings gradually the $5 to
$6 example while slashing the value of their loan book overnight in market downturns the $100 to
$90 example. So just be aware of this, the global financial crisis has taught us to never blindly trust any
global banks ever again.

The good news for ANZ is that the loan book looks reasonable as of the end of March this year.
Impaired assets (bad loans) as a proportion of the loan book at low at only $3.6bn. There seems to be
good provisioning set aside for problems, individual provisioning currently covers around $1.5bn or
41% of all bad loans. ANZ can get away with us as long as things down turn sour quickly. One of the


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best ways to see where loan quality is heading is by looking at mortgage arrears. This is a good lead
indicator for problem loans. A loan might be in arrears but doesnt necessarily turn into a bad loan
unless the bank things that the chance of it being repaid falls below a certain probability event. Loans
which have been in arrears by more than 90 days have actually increased from $1.8bn in September
to $2.0bn at the end of March. We dont know how many of these loans are from Australia or from
the Asian business.

What we are seeing though is loans in arrears between 30 to 60 days rising from $1.5bn to $2.0bn.
This needs to be watched closely, we dont think the majority of this is due to the Australian business
given record low interest rates, low unemployment and rising house prices. ANZs total loans which
are in arrears totals $13.0bn compared ti $11.8bn at the end of September. To put this into
perspective, ANZ has only allocated $4.3bn for all bad loans those which have already gone bad and
those that are in arrears but not yet in default status.

Our point here is this ANZ may have reported a nice headline growth rate in cash earnings of 11%
which caught all the news headlines BUT its loan arrears are rising and perhaps not rising in the
Australian market which is its core business. Eventually if the arrears continue rising and snowball into
problem loans, there will be a need to raise provisioning and take some pain. Profits will be impacted,
this is a big IF event but its one that needs to be factored into any scenario analysis. Well get a better
idea of why ANZs arrears are rising when we see number out of Westpac, if the trend is similar then
we can assume this reflects the dynamics of the Australian mortgage market. If Westpacs loan arrears
vary from ANZ, we must draw the conclusion that arrears are rising in Asia.

So we dont doubt the Asian growth strategy, we actually like it and think ANZ is well placed in the
next decade to capitalise from Asian growth. But we are nave enough to just accept everything a bank
tells us. We are a little cautious on the rising arrears profile and think that eventually ANZ will need to
take some pain from a slowing rate of growth in Asia. It might make some bad decisions along the way
have book loan losses thats life in banking. This will come as a surprise to the market but not as a
surprise to us. We protect ourselves from this probability but factoring in a margin of safety into the
price we are willing to pay for ANZ. The best way we think to value a bank is by using a Price to Book
ratio. The price the market is willing to pay for the bank compared to the value of equity the bank
actually owns in its business.


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On this measure, ANZs total book value (total value of its equity) as of the end of March was valued
at $47bn. In contracts the market is valuing ANZ shares at approximately $93.5bn. We calculate the
latter by taking the ANZ share price and multiplying by the total number of shares on issue. The result
is a Price to Book ratio of around 2x. Its not a big number but it definitely isnt cheap either. ANZs
total arrears make up about 30% of its total equity value. This is before any large, risky corporate loans
blow up. Perhaps they wont eventuate and things will go along smoothly. Given the experience of
other banks during the global financial crisis, we just dont feel comfortable taking this plunge. We
think ANZ probably deserves to trade at a Price to Book ratio of 1.5x 50% premium to its equity value.
This would equate to a share price of around $25-$26.

In the past we have said we are willing to wait for ANZ to fall back to around $27-$28 per share before
we start adding it to the portfolio. This might never eventuate but its a risk we are prepared to take.
We dont see an immediate reason to buy ANZ even though ANZ is our preferred pick among the
Australian banks. There is a big difference between a preferred pick within a bunch of stocks and an
investment worth buying. One is a relative measure, the other absolute and we think absolute choices
are what our clients should be focusing on. With that in mind, we are happy to sit back, relax and see
how the Australian banks perform over the coming few years. We wont hold any of them in the
portfolios because we want to be able to sleep at night. When we see over reaction in the market,
we will take the opportunity to jump on board and buy them. We arent bearish, we are just being
prudent in our investment approach.

Update on US corporate earnings season
We published a report on the Invast blog and subsequent Invast Insights report on 7 April 2014
previewing the upcoming US reporting season. We made the point that the risk reward ratio was
making it difficult to be long the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Since then the Dow has fallen but also
recovered in recent sessions to be fairly flat, in the vicinity of where we initially advised taking a short
position. We still think we Dow is set for declines and the risk reward characteristics make it difficult
to go long here, in any case we have always held the view that our stop loss level would be set at
16,650 which is about 100 points away from the current price as of the time of writing. We maintain
our short view. For those that missed the initial post, here it is. We take this opportunity to provide
some running commentary on the key Dow Jones Industrial constituents and how their earnings
numbers have come in. Most of the names have no reported and so we thought this would be an


INVAST INSIGHTS NEWSLETTER www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278

appropriate opportunity to update the market on the numbers. We published the chart below in early
April.



We focus our result analysis on the shaded names Visa, 3M, Boeing, United Technologies and
American Express.

* Visa The stock is down for the month as the result missed expectations on the revenue front. Net
income for the three months ended March 31 rose 26% to $1.6bn, or $2.52 a share, from $1.27bn, or
$1.92, a year earlier, Foster City, California-based Visa said yesterday in a statement. Adjusted earnings
per share, which exclude a tax gain, were $2.20, two cents better than the average estimate of 31
analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Revenue climbed to $3.16bn, missing the $3.18bn estimate.

* 3M - The stock rallied nicely last month, one of the key names dragging the Dow back higher.
Earnings were in line with market expectations with revenue up 3% to US$7.8bn and earnings at
US$1.79 per share. Sales in the healthcare unit rose nearly five per cent and were also higher for the


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industrial, safety and graphics, and electronics and energy divisions. Sales dipped in the consumer
business, which ranges from stationery and office supplies to home care products.

* Boeing - A fairly flat month for the stock, trading within a very tight range between US$120-130 per
share. Rising jet production helped Boeing post a 14 percent rise in adjusted net profit in the first
quarter, beating estimates, and the company notched up its full-year forecast. The first quarter results
reflected a weak comparison with a year ago, when Boeing delivered just one 787 Dreamliner in the
first quarter of 2013. Deliveries were halted that month after two incidents in which batteries on the
planes burned, prompting regulators to ground the global Dreamliner fleet for three months.

* United Technologies Poor month for the stock, stock drifting lower following the results. Nothing
really there to get the market excited. New equipment orders at Otis, a division of United Technologies
and the worlds biggest maker of elevators, escalators and other people-moving products (like
moving walkways), increased 9% for the quarter due to 27% growth in Chinese orders. United
Technologies said that new equipment orders in its climate, controls and security segment increased
1% organically with growth in HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) products as well as fire
and security products offset by a decline in demand for container refrigeration products in the
Transicold brand.

* American Express Another stock which has seen a poor month, market totally unconvinced by the
earnings numbers. Struggling to rise back above US$90 per share. The company reported net income
of $1.4 billion for the period, a 7.7% increase from last year, on the back of increased spending by card
members. The card payment networks net income margin expanded to 17.5% from 16.2% in the same
quarter last year. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $1.33, a 16% increase compared to
$1.15 in 1QFY13. The market needs to see this type of growth given the high price to earnings ratio
which we highlighted in our chart above. Lacked the strong conviction some were looking for!

Our Senior Technical Strategist Vito Henjoto has just re-run his numbers and provided the following
analysis with respect to the Dow Jones position. His points are:
* Key resistance located at 16650 in line with our previous comments above
* Immediate support located at 16350 followed by 16150.
* Trend changing support located at 16000


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* Medium Short term is neutral as long as price is within this 650 points range (16000 16650).
* Stochastic also indicating potential overbought market in the short term.


Image: US30 daily chart via Invast MT4 platform

Technical update on the copper price
The brief copper rally over the past month faces tough resistance close to the 61.8% (around
US$3.14/lb) off its fall in February March this year. As can be seen on the Daily chart below, copper
has also failed to close above the Ichimoku cloud. The combination of 61.8% retracement and the
inability to overcome Ichimoku cloud resistance suggests a potential for downtrend continuation. The
level that could stop this from happening is at the key US$3/lb mark. Any daily close below this level
could trigger further selling in copper.

The Stochastic Oscillator is also supportive of this view at time of writing as price comes off the
overbought condition. Even though technical levels are pointing for a move lower in the medium short
term, we like to be on the positive side of things that the move lower will likely be less aggressive
compared to the drop two months ago. Downside support below US$3/lb is located at US$2.98/lb and
US$2.93/lb both of which are Fibonacci retracement of the recent recovery. We do expect these levels


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to hold any further drop in Copper prices should US$3/lb fails to support the market. Position traders
could look to re-enter the copper recovery on bounces from either US$2.98/lb or US$2.93/lb.


Chart courtesy of TradingView.com
Key gold webinar on this week
We launched our Gold Forecast guide two weeks ago with resounding success. Demand for the outlook
on gold has been significant. For those that missed it you can download the document by clicking
here. The guide goes through our fundamental way of thinking about gold and shares some insight
into the factors that we think about when trying to project a long term gold price. We focus on the
supply side of the equation while many other in the industry just focus on gold demand which is very
subjective and difficult to quantify. We spoke about gold extensively in one of our daily morning
meetings last week plenty of Insights from some of our senior traders and Institutional Sales
managers. The general feel around our trading desk is that gold is currently consolidating but could
surprise the market on the upside in the coming few months.



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When? How? These are the two key questions that many are asking. We remind you that our Live
Market Analysis webinar on the 7
th
May 2014 will be focused on the where we believe the gold price
is going based on the very latest technical analysis by our Senior Technical Strategist Vito Henjoto.



We have laid out the fundamentals in the guide and this webinar is the best opportunity to position
your trades for the next few months. Click here to register directly into the webinar, an event not to
be missed! The beauty of our webinars is that clients get to see exactly how we place trades, how we
construct our analysis and how we manage trades as the market starts to fluctuate. The webinars are
also an excellent opportunity for you to ask questions there arent many brokers out there that give
you full access to their senior analysts while they trade the market.

We hope to see you there. If you have any questions that you would like to be specifically addressed
in the webinar ahead of time, feel free to email vhenjoto@invast.com.au or pesho@invast.com.au
directly.

Glossary of previously covered topics
What the RBA can learn from the
RBNZ
Stocks likely to enter our portfolios
Invast launches ST24 platform
Gold outlook webinar must attend
event
April portfolio review
Aussie dollar outlook post RBA meet
Gold technical update charts &
levels
Upcoming essential webinars
Russia and the situation in the
Ukraine
Monthly portfolio review
Property vs. shares and gold
performance
Focus on the Yen crosses
What does the future hold for
Qantas?
Australian earnings review
US jobs report, this weeks key event
Why BHPs result is a turning point
Aussie set for a bull market run
Gold risk/reward levels
AUD/NZD the start of a major
reversal?
Reporting season buy & sells
Technical outlook & key level updates
Book review The Demographic Cliff
Can Turkeys economic situation
recover?
Monthly portfolio review and
changes


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Forge Group (FGE) example of
fragility
Educational trading video Nassim
Taleb
Weekly live market analysis sessions
Gold price review latest technical
update
ETF performance post currency moves
Australian inflation numbers boost
A$
Hollywood films and market
performance
Client question portfolio
methodology
CEO chit-chat ELX
Key takeouts from ECB monthly
report
A$ direction following jobs report
Welcome to a year of opportunity
Oil & comments from Stratfor
Gold price outlook
Market outlook via our CNBC
interview
NASDAQ 400 winners & losers
Geopolitics and impact on markets
Indonesia & Australias generational
struggle
Iran & the USA Impact on oil
Educational videos stocks and forex
Why Free Cashflow is king
Oil price revisited
Is the carry-trade alive?
Ellex Medical - Keep an eye on this
small cap stock
Preview: Is the carry-trade alive and
kicking?
Our takeout from the RBA decision
Our initial impressions on the
Westpac result
Is Europe about to dive again?
Book review Who moved my
Cheese?
A look at the Australian banks
ANZ and NAB worlds apart
How we think about banks
Technical analysis to filter market
noise
Understanding Beta in Forex markets
Social media & trading
Melbourne Cup tip
Where interest rates may be heading
in Australia?
What this means for the Aussie
dollar
Feedback from our Gold seminar
Monthly portfolio review
Proposed portfolio changes
BHPs quarterly production report
Why it may be time to start buying
mining stocks
Reasons to start buying mining
stocks
The future of Chinas railways
Rio Tinto deserves a pat on the back
Which stocks are worth buying?
Initial impressions on the Telstra
AGM
Revisiting the 15 hidden gems
September jobs report new release
date
Telco stocks update how our picks
have fared
US reporting season preview
Earnings beat rate
Market correlations
Currency Triangulation
Using correlation to detect market
anomaly Gold & A$ divorce
Client question and answer
Exchange traded products on the
ASX
International exposure &
opportunity
Caution and research is important
A closer look at the DAX
Germany the growth engine of
Europe
Introduction to Fibonacci
Invast Gold Seminar
About our guest speaker
Gold interview worth watching
October portfolio performance
review
Portfolio changes and additions
Trends in upcoming AGM season
Gold price in light of Fed meeting
How we think about gold
Book review The 4 Hour Work
Week
The Federal Reserve and the future
of money printing
How does the September decision
impact Australia
Quality of assets for Australian
banks
The key data set to watch
Brent crude back to "normal" trading
range
Pivot points explained
Client question and answer - liquidity
What is happening in China?
How we think of China
Why steel production matters
Fortescue Metals expresses its views
China in a medium term timeframe
We all need a little Vision


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What do Vision's numbers look like?
Key priorities going into 2014
Vision's outlook and guidance
Forex pairs outlook for targets
Client question and answer
Copper price key for mining sector
Who are the key consumers of
physical copper?
Where copper stockpiles are
trending
Where the copper price goes from
here
Nokia & Microsoft deal puts mobile
sector in spotlight
Australian small cap stocks
leveraged to mobile growth
Where Telstra fits into it all
AMP going into China - what does it
mean?
Risk management for traders
Book review - The Black Swan by
Nassim Taleb
Launch of our model portfolios
The three portfolios explained
What does Syria mean for your
investment portfolio?
Invast's initial impression on the
Qantas results
Invast's initial impression on the
Woolworths results
Building a trading plan from scratch
Who we are and what we plan to
offer
The 15 hidden GEMS that recently
came up on our screen
Woodside Petroleum - Not all about
the earnings
Super Retail & The Reject Shop -
Initial impressions
ANZ needed a good trading update
to maintain momentum
Vito Henjoto Global Market Outlook
and Technical Analysis

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objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore
consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain
financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

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