Hypothesis testing

Case of Murder trial

Murder Accused is facing the trial in a court.
The court looks at the evidence to judge
whether the accused is innocent or Guilty
What is the Null Hypothesis here?
What is the Alternate Hypothesis?
Case of Murder trial
Null Hypothesis
H0 : The accused is NOT GUILTY (Innocent)
H1 : The accused is GUILTY
How do we test this hypothesis
Against evidence
What is the evidence available
Often evidence is circumstantial and Not Conclusive
Eye witnesses
Fingerprint
Motives


Circumstantial evidence
Null Hypothesis
H0 : The accused is NOT GUILTY (Innocent)
H1 : The accused is GUILTY
Evidence 1
CC TV recorded the murder and the recording is available
The argument : If the accused were indeed innocent (H0 is
true) what is the probability of having this evidence
0 %
What is your decision ?

What is your confidence in this decision?
What is the probability that you are wrong?
Circumstantial evidence
Null Hypothesis
H0 : The accused is NOT GUILTY (Innocent)
H1 : The accused is GUILTY
Evidence 2
Fingerprint is found on the murder weapon a knife
The argument : If the accused were indeed innocent
(H0 is true) what is the probability of having this
evidence
1 %
Circumstantial evidence
What is your decision ?
Not Guilty ? Guilty?
Accept or Reject Null Hypothesis
What is your confidence in this decision?
What is the probability that you are wrong?
What is the consequence of your wrong judgment?
An innocent person will get punished
A Guilty person will be acquitted
Which of these you want to reduce
Can both be simultaneously reduced
Circumstantial evidence
Null Hypothesis
H0 : The accused is NOT GUILTY (Innocent)
H1 : The accused is GUILTY
Evidence 3
Fingerprint is found in the room where body was found
The argument : If the accused were indeed innocent
(H0 is true) what is the probability of having this
evidence
15 %
Circumstantial evidence
What is your decision ?
Not Guilty ? Guilty?
Accept or Reject Null Hypothesis
What is your confidence in this decision?
What is the probability that you are wrong?
What is the consequence of your wrong judgment?
Circumstantial evidence
Null Hypothesis
H0 : The accused is NOT GUILTY (Innocent)
H1 : The accused is GUILTY
Evidence 4
Eye witness found the accused sharing a drink with the victim
2 hours before the time of death
The argument : If the accused were indeed innocent
(H0 is true) what is the probability of having this
evidence
70 %
Circumstantial evidence
What is your decision ?
Not Guilty ? Guilty?
Accept or Reject Null Hypothesis
What is your confidence in this decision?
What is the probability that you are wrong?
What is the consequence of your wrong judgment?
Circumstantial evidence
Null Hypothesis
H0 : The accused is NOT GUILTY (Innocent)
H1 : The accused is GUILTY
Evidence 5
The accused had borrowed a large sum of money from the
victim
The argument : If the accused were indeed innocent
(H0 is true) what is the probability of having this
evidence occur.
90 %
Circumstantial evidence
What is your decision ?
Not Guilty ? Guilty?
Accept or Reject Null Hypothesis
What is your confidence in this decision?
What is the probability that you are wrong?
What is the consequence of your wrong judgment?

Are effective teachers motivated by
power?
Manifest Needs
Needs for affiliation, achievement , power and
autonomy
What are the characteristics of effective
teachers?
Need for power and effectiveness as teachers
A sample of 100 teachers
Measured Need for power
Measured Effectiveness
Both scaled variables
Are effective teachers motivated by
power?
Need for power and effectiveness
Correlation r for sample of 100 = 0.62
How do we make a generalization for all the
teachers?
Can we say therefore that for the entire
population, Need for power and effectiveness are
correlated?
Teachers with a high need for power are more
effective?

Are effective teachers motivated by
power?
Need for power and effectiveness
Correlation r for sample of 100 = 0.62
How do we make a generalization for all the
teachers?
Hypothesis testing
To determine if sample results are applicable for
population
A statement you make about relationships among
population parameters
Tested using sample statistics
Based on distribution assumptions
Non parametric

Are effective teachers motivated by
power?
Need for power and effectiveness
Correlation r for sample of 100 = 0.62
Null Hypothesis (neutral)
H0 : Rho =0 where Rho is the correlation coefficient for
population
H1 : Rho 0
If null hypothesis were true ie, if Rho is indeed
zero, what is the probability of getting a sample
with r=0.62?
3% (0.03)
What is your conclusion?