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Monday, September 15, 2014
Good morning from beautiful Hamburg and welcome to our first Daily FX Report for this week.
On Sunday, Washington said that countries in the Middle East had offered their military help to
join air strikes against Islamic State (IS) militants. Australia became the first country to detail
troop numbers and aircraft to fight the militants. It said it would send a 600 strong force and eight
fighter jets to the region. On Thursday, Kerry won already the backing for a coordinated military
campaign from 10 Arab countries. Other countries, including France also might support the
military offensive against the IS.

Anyway, we wish you a successful trading day and a nice start of the week!

Market Review Fundamental Perspective
The European Central Bank expects the euro zone will return to modest growth in the third
quarter but full year growth will be less than 1 percent. The EUR has experienced a sharp
decline during the last weeks and months and fell under the level of 1.30 U.S. cents per EUR. In
the U.K. Queen Elizabeth II has broken her silence over the Scottish independence vote, telling
a member of the public on Sunday that she hoped Scots would think very carefully about the
future when voting in a referendum that could break up the United Kingdom. Before a
referendum on Scottish independence on Sept. 18, the GBP stayed lower following a decline
last week. The GBP lost 0.2 percent and depreciated to $1.6241 after touching $1.6052 on Sept.
10, a level not seen since Nov. 15. In the U.S. the USD has risen as signs of a strengthening
U.S. economy boosted speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest
rates.
Australia`s currency came in the cross hairs of sellers first thing on Monday, sliding to a fresh
six-month low after a set of disappointing Chinese data weighed on already soft demand. This
boosts the chances that the South Pacific nation`s policy makers will hold interest rates at a
record low. Until recent weeks, Australia`s interest rates, which are the highest in the developed
world after New Zealand, had allowed its currency to resist a rally in the dollar. The Australian
dollar fell towards 90 U.S. cents, from around $0.9040 late in New York on Friday and is now
traded at $0.9015. While the AUD is the only Group-of-10 currency to advance against the USD
this year, its gain has eroded to 1.1 percent from 6.5 percent at the start of July.



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Daily Technical Analysis
EUR/USD (Daily)
After reaching the resistance level at 1.3693 in the end of June, the EUR experienced a sharp
decline against the USD till the pair reached the support level at 1.2889, where it rebounded. At
the moment we see a slightly recovery. However, the MACD and the RSI both indicate that the
pair might suffer further losses in the near future. Should the currency further decline and break
through the support level, we may even expect more significant losses beyond the level of 1.28.

Support & Resistance (Daily)
Support Levels around Resistance Levels around
1.2889 1.3693
N/A N/A
N/A N/A



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AUD/NZD (Daily)
After reaching the support level at 1.0642, the currency pair experienced an appreciation till it
reached the level at 1.1273 where we saw a reversal. At the moment the pair is close to the
support level of 1.1054 and both indicators provide evidence that the support level might be to
weak to prevent the currency pair from a further decline. Australia`s recent weak economic data
supports this assumption.

Support & Resistance (Daily)
Support Levels around Resistance Levels around
1.1054 1.1175
1.0932 1.1273

1.0766 N/A



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USD/JPY (4 Hours)
Since the end of August the USD was able to appreciate against the JPY and rose from 103.63
to 107.37. At the moment the pair is close to the resistance level of 107.37 which prevents the
JPY from further losses. It remains to be seen whether this resistance level will hold. Both
indicators provide evidence that we may see a slightly recovery of the JPY in the near future.

Support & Resistance (4 Hours)
Support Levels around Resistance Levels around
104.83 107.37
103.63 N/A
N/A N/A


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Daily Calendar & Key Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last Survey
15/09/2014 09:00 EC Trade Balance SA 13.8B 15.5B
15/09/2014 09:00 EC Trade Balance NSA 16.8B
15/09/2014 12:30 US Empire Manufacturing 14.69 16.00
15/09/2014 13:15 US Industrial Production MoM 0.9% -0.2%
15/09/2014 13:15 US Capacity Utilization 79.2% 79.3%




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