HR DemandPresented By: Karman Hoang, Krista Laurie & Melanie Perera

Learning Objectives Index/Trend Analysis Expert Forecasting Two Expert Forecasting Techniques a.)
Delphi Technique b.) Nominal Group Technique Participation/Game Conclusion
HR DemandWhat are some reasons why is itimportant for organizations to forecast for the future?
No Organization isPsychic
Index/Trend Analysis Reveals the historical relationship between the operational index and the number
of employees required by the organization Sales level is the most common index used by
organizations Organizations also use trend analysis to confirm the demand requirements for direct and
indirect labor
5 Steps to Conduct an Effective Trend Analysis1) Select the appropriate business/operational index2)
Track the business index over time3) Track the workforce size over time
More Index/Trend Analysis4) Calculate the average ratio of the business index to the workforce size =
Level of sales for each year of historical data/ number of employees required to produce that years
level of sales5)Calculate the forecasted demand for labor= Annual forecast for business index / average
employee requirement ratio for each year
Expert Forecasting Detailed process for stating assumptions, considering potential organizational and
environmental changes and coming up with a rationale to support the numerical estimate
Individuals Considered to be Expert Forecasters1) Organizations line managers2) Organizations HR and
business planning staff3) Individuals possessing detailed knowledge of the specific industries and
organizations activities4) Federal, provincial and local government staff and officials
DelphiTechnique
About Delphi This forecasting technique was created in 1950 This technique is a qualitative method
for deciding on specific detailed ideas of long- run HR demand The Delphi Method is based on a
structured process for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of experts by means of a series of
questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback A key aspect of this demand forecasting
technique is that the group of experts that are chose never meet face to face
Advantages of Delphi As the experts do not meet face to face this avoids many of the issues that may
occur during face to face communication among groups as some may feel reluctant to participate due
to: 1.) shyness 2.) perceived lower status or authority 3.) perceived communication deficiencies 4.)
issues of individual dominance Therefore this technique can allow for each individual to participate
equally and allow for valid feedback from everyone This technique also uses expert from vase
geographical regions allowing for various inputs
Disadvantages of Delphi Can be timely and costly as opposed to using other forecasting techniques
Since the results cannot be validated statistically, this process is greatly dependent on the individual
knowledge and commitment of each of the experts involved If the experts are from one particular
field, they may end up giving information from this field only as apposed to be more innovative and
creative
Six Steps of the Delphi Technique1.) Define and Refine the Issue or Question2.) Identify the Experts,
Terms, andTime Horizon3.) Orient the Experts
Six Steps of the Delphi Technique4.) Issue the First-RoundQuestionnaire5.) Issue the First-
RoundQuestionnaire Summary and theSecond Round of Questionnaires6.) Continue Issuing
Questionnaires
Nominal Group Technique
What Is It? A long run forecasting technique that uses expert assessments Studies have shown that
NGT is effective during brainstorming sessions because it allows all participants to have an equal voice
The study also predicted that NGT will replace focus groups as the qualitative research method of choice
and reduce the need for administrative surveys
How Is It Different From The Delphi Technique The group meets face to face and interact Each
demand estimate is considered to be the property of the group minimizing potential for negative
behavior (i.e. personal attacks, dominance etc.) Expert forecast is determined by a secret vote of all
members
The Seven Steps ToCarry Out The NGTProcessThere are seven steps to carry out the NGT process
3.Define and refine the issue or question and therelevant time horizon 4.Select the experts 5.Issue the
HR demand statements to the experts 6.Apply expert knowledge, state assumptions andprepare an
estimate 7.Meet face to face 8.Discuss the demand estimates and assumptions 9.Vote secretly to
determine the expert demandassessment
Its Game Time! BANK IT!
Reference sBelcourt, McBey, Strategic HumanResources Planning, NelsonCanada, 4th edition.