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China as a Great Power

By
Alexandra Magonet

To: Mr. President

From: Alexandra Magonet, National Security Advisor

Date: Sunday, January 5, 2014

Subject: Chinas Potential as a Great Power

As it has come to my attention, China currently does not have significant potential
to become a rival Great Power to the United States in the near-term future. Presently,
China is still a poor country. In 2005, Chinas GDP per head was $1,700, compared with
$42,000 per head in the United States. China has become an important trading partner
although it is ranked behind many other major trading economies, ranking 9
th
overall. As
for the next several years, China is not close to becoming a world financial center.
Annually, riots and protests are increasing and corruption seems to be becoming
routine. Withal, China has used its position as a permanent member of the U.N. Security
Council to abate solutions intended to influence the Sudanese government to cease the
ethnic massacre in Darfur. Additionally, China is a great harm to the environment and its
supply of clean water is proving to be scarce. With China struggling to maintain stability
in its society and economy, international affairs seem to be taking a back seat. As a result,
I do not believe that in the next several years, China will become a Great Power.
However, when looking further into the future, I do believe that China has
substantial potential to be a rival Great Power to the United States. In order for China to
be considered as a Great Power, it must have the ability to possess military and economic
strength as well as diplomatic influence. Currently, China has 1,400 soldiers serving in
U.N. peacekeeping missions globally. In the following several years, China plans to
expand and develop its peacekeeping role in the United Nations. In the year 2000, China
only deployed approximately 100 peacekeepers. Since then, China has greatly increased
its peacekeepers by 20-folds and will continue to do so over a long period of time. Along
with the United Nations peacekeeping soldiers, Chinas military is the worlds largest,
with a strength of over two million citizens. The Chinese military is equipped with
advanced and sophisticated weaponry and military technology. With the 15.6% average
annual growth in Chinas defense budget, by the early 2030s, China is expected to spend
equal amount on defense as the United States, proving their military strength.
Chinas economic growth rates are approximately 10% each year. By the year
2031, Chinas projected income per person is expected to reach $38,000 per capita versus
the current $6,091 per capita annually. By the 2030s, China is forecasted to hold an 18%
share of global economic power, allowing China to hold the number one position over the
United States forecast of global economic power to be a mere 10%.
It is also expected that in the long-term, China will have greater diplomatic
influence. By early the 2030s, China is likely to assert greater influence in the
development of existing institutions and the creation of any new institutions. Its
combination of authoritarian government, powerful national development and economic
power may help developing countries negate the pressures they feel from leading western
governments to follow a certain liberal capitalist model. With China military, economic,
and political strength, I believe that by the year 2031, China will be one of the worlds
Great Powers.
Over the course of the next two decades, China and the United States are likely to
be extremely competitive and suspicious with each other. First of all, China is looking to
dominate militarily. As of now, the United States spends more money on national defense
but by the early 2030s, China will be spending an equal amount and will wish to
outperform the United States military. Another issue that China and the United States
will likely face is the military progress in Taiwan. The Chinese military continues to
position forces along the coast, while the United States continues to sell firearms to
Taiwan. The conflict of interest will very likely lead to warfare and more turmoil for the
two parties. Additionally, Chinas commitment to nonintervention has raised wariness
with the United States. With China believing that interfering in another nations internal
affairs are wrong, it is rather hard for the United States to share similar views.
I recommend that the United States and China engage in a strategic dialogue in
which current military objectives, specific territorial, economic, and political issues can
be discussed. This will allow for both parties to confront the issues that are driving the
two countries apart. I would also recommend that both parties strengthen their military
connection to each other. A solid military link will resolve the mistrust and suspicion
each party has. Furthermore, I would recommend that in order to resolve the conflict of
interest in Taiwan, the United States should reconsider its current strategy and discuss
with China how both countries can reach a consensus. Lastly, both countries should
expand their ways of cooperating to other security issues such as counterterrorism and
humanitarian relief. Further cooperation will help improve the overall relationship
between China and the United States.


Alexandra Magonet
National Security Advisor









Works Cited


Brown, Lester R. "Learning from China: Why the Western Economic Model Will Not
Work for the World." Plan B Updates. Earth Policy Institute, 9 Mar. 2005. Web.
05 Jan. 2014.

"China's Expanding Peacekeeping Role." Sipri, n.d. Web. 05 Jan. 2014.

Elliot. "Michael." China Takes on the World. Internet; accessed 28 April 2008.

Miller, Lyman. "China: An Emerging Superpower?." Stanford Journal of International
Relations. Internet; accessed 28 April 2008.

Lawrence, Susan V. "U.S.-China Relations: An Overview of Policy Issues."
Congressional Research Service. N.p., 1 Aug. 2013. Web. 5 Jan. 2014.

Swaine, Michael. "Avoiding US-China Military Rivalry." The Diplomat. N.p., 20 Feb.
2011. Web. 05 Jan. 2014.

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