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In the eurozone, growth disappoints in the second quarter. In Brazil, weaker retail sales increase the risk of a contraction of GDP. In the us, economic data remains divergent with regard to the economic recovery of the country.
In the eurozone, growth disappoints in the second quarter. In Brazil, weaker retail sales increase the risk of a contraction of GDP. In the us, economic data remains divergent with regard to the economic recovery of the country.
In the eurozone, growth disappoints in the second quarter. In Brazil, weaker retail sales increase the risk of a contraction of GDP. In the us, economic data remains divergent with regard to the economic recovery of the country.
WEEKLY REVIEW AND PERSPECTIVES In the Eurozone, growth disappoints in the second quarter. In Brazil, weaker retail sales increase the risk of a contraction of GDP in the second quarter. In the US, economic data remains divergent with regard to the economic recovery of the country. Retail sales disappointed in July (0.0%) after the market expected the pace of growth to maintain increases in June (0.2%), in seasonally adjusted terms. The control group, which excludes sales data of cars, gasoline, building materials and food services, and works as a proxy for the calculation of household consumption in GDP, rose 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms, below market expectations (+0.4%) and below the result for June, which was revised from 0.6% to 0.5%, on the same basis of comparison. However, industrial production grew 0.4% in July, seasonally adjusted, above market consensus (0.3%) and growth for June was revised from 0.2% to 0.4 %, on the same basis of comparison. Manufacturing has accelerated from 0.3% to 1.0%, driven by results from the auto industry that went from stability to growth of 10.1% in the same period, however, quarrying slowed from 1.3% to 0.3% and utilities decreased from a contraction of 0.7% to a 3.4% drop, due to the lower demand for energy on a mild summer after the harsh winter.
With regard to speeches of Fed members throughout the week, Stanley Fischer, vice chairman of the Fed, was the highlight with a speech aligned with the ideas defended by Janet Yellen, president of the Fed. Know to be an exponent of higher interest rates at the Fed, Fischers comments backed up the Fed chairmans speeches, citing that part of the reduction of the economically active population is cyclic and, in light of this, when the economy accelerates, more people will start to seek employment, increasing the labour supply and reducing pressure on the market. He also mentioned that after the 2008 crisis, the potential GDP of the economy dropped from around 2.5% to 3.0% before the crisis to 2.0% to 2.5% after. The implication of a lower potential GDP would mean lower long-term interest rates. Furthermore, Fischer also argued that the real estate sector continues to weigh on the recovery and the shadow banking system is a source of financial instability risk for the economy. -0.9% -0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% J a n - 1 3 F e b - 1 3 M a r - 1 3 A p r - 1 3 M a y - 1 3 J u n - 1 3 J u l - 1 3 A u g - 1 3 S e p - 1 3 O c t - 1 3 N o v - 1 3 D e c - 1 3 J a n - 1 4 F e b - 1 4 M a r - 1 4 A p r - 1 4 M a y - 1 4 J u n - 1 4 J u l - 1 4 USA - Retail Sales (%MoM - SA) Total Control Group Source: US Census, BRAM 92.3 87.7 100.8 84.0 97.4 104.4 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 USA - Industrial Production Source: Bloomberg 2 BRAM ECONOMIC BULLETIN August 18, 2014
The Eurozone continued to show signs of weakness, with the slowdown during the period coming from the central economies. Second quarter GDP was stable, in seasonally adjusted terms, compared with growth of 0.2% in the previous quarter. In comparison with the same period last year, GDP grew 0.7% in the second quarter. This result was slower relative to growth of 0.9% in the first quarter on the same basis of comparison. The three main economies of the bloc did not grow and pulled down the result of the regions GDP. Germany and Italy contracted 0.2% from the previous quarter, while France remained stable on the same basis of comparison, all results are seasonally adjusted. The peripheral economies of the Eurozone have been producing more favourable results, such as Spain and Portugal, which grew 0.6%. Following the economic downturn and rising tension between Ukraine and Russia, the ZEW confidence index in Germany, registered a sharp contraction in August. The index decreased from 48.1 to 23.7 points between July and August, a result of falling assessment of the current situation and future expectations. In this context, the projection for GDP in the Eurozone has been revised from 1.0% to 0.7% in 2014. In Japan, second quarter GDP had a strong contraction, jeopardizing the Central Bank of Japans optimistic growth projections for the fiscal year of 2014. In comparison with the previous quarter, second quarter GDP fell by 1.7%, negating the advance of 1.5% in the first quarter (revised from 1.6%). The main contributing factor of this result was the poor performance of household consumption, following a positive contribution from six consecutive quarters, with a contraction of 3.1%. Private investment was also a negative (0.7%). The Government failed to compensate for the strong falls, even accelerating government spending with consumption and investment. Net exports were positive (1.1%) due to the sharp decline in imports relative to exports. Given the poor result for second quarter GDP, the BoJ will possibly revise its growth projection downward for the fiscal year of 2014 (currently at 1.0%), closer to our forecast of 0.6%.
97.9 103.6 101.2 90.9 93.7 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 m a r - 0 8 j u n - 0 8 s e t - 0 8 d e z - 0 8 m a r - 0 9 j u n - 0 9 s e t - 0 9 d e z - 0 9 m a r - 1 0 j u n - 1 0 s e t - 1 0 d e z - 1 0 m a r - 1 1 j u n - 1 1 s e t - 1 1 d e z - 1 1 m a r - 1 2 j u n - 1 2 s e t - 1 2 d e z - 1 2 m a r - 1 3 j u n - 1 3 s e t - 1 3 d e z - 1 3 m a r - 1 4 j u n - 1 4 Euro Zone - GDP (100 = 1Q2008) Euro Zone GE FR I T SP Source: Eurostat, BRAM -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 D e c - 0 0 S e p - 0 1 J u n - 0 2 M a r - 0 3 D e c - 0 3 S e p - 0 4 J u n - 0 5 M a r - 0 6 D e c - 0 6 S e p - 0 7 J u n - 0 8 M a r - 0 9 D e c - 0 9 S e p - 1 0 J u n - 1 1 M a r - 1 2 D e c - 1 2 S e p - 1 3 J u n - 1 4 Germany - ZEW Index Expectation Current Situation Source: Bloomberg, BRAM -3.3 -4 -1.8 2.6 1.5 -1.7 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 0 7 4 / 1 / 2 0 0 8 8 / 1 / 2 0 0 8 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 0 8 4 / 1 / 2 0 0 9 8 / 1 / 2 0 0 9 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 0 9 4 / 1 / 2 0 1 0 8 / 1 / 2 0 1 0 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 1 0 4 / 1 / 2 0 1 1 8 / 1 / 2 0 1 1 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 1 1 4 / 1 / 2 0 1 2 8 / 1 / 2 0 1 2 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 1 2 4 / 1 / 2 0 1 3 8 / 1 / 2 0 1 3 1 2 / 1 / 2 0 1 3 4 / 1 / 2 0 1 4 J apan: GDP Q/Q, sa, % 3 BRAM ECONOMIC BULLETIN August 18, 2014
In China, July data signals stabilizing growth. Industrial production, a solid indicator for projecting GDP growth, accelerated from 8.9% to 9.0% between June and July, on the annual comparison. Retail sales grew 12.2%, slowing from June result of 12.4%, compared to the same period of last year. Investment in fixed assets fell from 17.3% to 17%, year on year, with a general slowdown in the sectors of investment in real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing. Credit data contracted more than expected due to seasonality, with the strong June result, continued weak activity (due to the housing market downturn), and the increased control over the parallel credit system. Inflation remained stable at 2.3%, year over year, below the 3.5% target, which gives comfort to the government and the Central Bank of China to use expansionist policies if necessary. External sector data showed a strong acceleration in exports, which were driven by increased demand from developed economies (USA, Eurozone and Japan). On the other hand, imports slowed. This decrease was mainly due to the decline in commodity prices. We conclude that economic activity will keep expanding, on average, around 1.7% over the next two quarters, in seasonally adjusted terms, which means lower growth of 2.0% in the second quarter, on the same basis for comparison. However, this still represents strong growth. A factor that weighs against activity for the second half is the slowing real estate sector and lower fiscal expansion recorded in the first half of the year, however expansionary monetary and the resumption of exports favours growth in the second half. For the year, GDP should be slightly below the 7.5% target set by the government, growing 7.2%.
In the emerging markets, the concern of slowing activity has led some countries to adopt expansionary monetary policies. The central banks of South Korea and Chile have cut the basic interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% and 3.5%, respectively, per year. Meanwhile in Indonesia, the central bank has decided to keep the interest rate at 7.5% per year due to the focus of controlling inflation and the adjustment of the current account. The disclosures of GDP growth of emerging countries justifies the concern of central banks. In the emerging European economies, slowing growth was recorded in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, in seasonally adjusted terms. Romanian GDP contracted 1.1% and there was stability for the Czech Republic, after growth of 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively, in the first quarter. On the other hand, Malaysia accelerated during the period, advancing 1.8% against 0.8% in the first quarter, seasonally adjusted. In Latin America, Mexican industrial production increased 2.0% in June compared with the same period last year, a result in line with market expectations (2.1%). In Peru, although the unemployment rate remained stable at 5.7% in July, the result is below market expectations (5.8%), advancing only 0.3% compared to the same month a year earlier, after rising 1.8% in May, on the same basis of comparison. The weakening of the Peruvian economy in recent months justifies the quantitative easing adopted by the central bank. -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 J a n - 0 7 M a y - 0 7 S e p - 0 7 J a n - 0 8 M a y - 0 8 S e p - 0 8 J a n - 0 9 M a y - 0 9 S e p - 0 9 J a n - 1 0 M a y - 1 0 S e p - 1 0 J a n - 1 1 M a y - 1 1 S e p - 1 1 J a n - 1 2 M a y - 1 2 S e p - 1 2 J a n - 1 3 M a y - 1 3 S e p - 1 3 J a n - 1 4 M a y - 1 4 China - Fixed Asset Investiments (% YoY) Manufacturing Real State Infra Structure FAI - Total Source: Bloomberg 2.3 8.4 10.1 -8.2 -2.9 -0.9 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 J a n / 0 0 O c t / 0 0 J u l / 0 1 A p r / 0 2 J a n / 0 3 O c t / 0 3 J u l / 0 4 A p r / 0 5 J a n / 0 6 O c t / 0 6 J u l / 0 7 A p r / 0 8 J a n / 0 9 O c t / 0 9 J u l / 1 0 A p r / 1 1 J a n / 1 2 O c t / 1 2 J u l / 1 3 A p r / 1 4 CPI PPI China - Inflation (CPI and PPI, %, YoY) Source: Bloomberg 4 BRAM ECONOMIC BULLETIN August 18, 2014
Brazil has also shown signs of weakness, however, wholesale inflation has stabilised. The IBC-BR index fell by 1.1% in the second quarter, in seasonally adjusted terms, reinforcing our view of slowing GDP in this period. The IBC-BR for the month of June fell 1.48% from the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, and 2.15% compared with June 2013. This was influenced by the fall of working days due to the World Cup, as retail sales in June were very weak. Retail sales fell 3.6% in June in seasonally adjusted terms, below our expectations and the market (-0.8% and -1.0%, respectively). The decline was widespread across sectors, as various segments decreased: clothing (-1.0%), furniture and household appliances (-2.0%), office equipment, computer and communications (-4.2% ), fuels and lubricants (-2.3%), motor vehicles (- 12.9%) and construction (-3.9%). In the quarter, retail sales expanded contracted by 3.1% in seasonally adjusted terms, year on year, sales fell 1.8% in the period. This larger drop than previously expected, puts a downward bias on our estimate for second quarter GDP (0.0%), thus increasing the chance of GDP contracting slightly in the period. In the wake of the fall in the price of commodities, the IGP-10 showed deflation of 0.55% in August, stable compared to the July (-0.56%) and lower than expected (-0.43%). For the 12 month measure, the indicator is at 4.8%, with wholesale prices retreating similar to the previous month pace. The Agricultural IPA fell from 2.29% to 2.20% during this period, mainly affected by cereals. The Industrial IPA registered deflation of 0.43%, with declines in the price of processed foods and iron ore. This price deflation suggest that iron ore and agricultural prices should be lower going forward. Thus, the August result could register deflation but also might be closer to stability.
1.1 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 0 -1.1 1.8 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Poland Hungary Czech Republic Romania Malaysia GDP (% QoQ) 1Q14 2Q14 Source: Bloomberg, BRAM 2.25 3.50 7.50 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 J a n - 1 3 M a r - 1 3 M a y - 1 3 J u l - 1 3 S e p - 1 3 N o v - 1 3 J a n - 1 4 M a r - 1 4 M a y - 1 4 J u l - 1 4 Interest rate (% per year) Korea Chile I ndonesia Source: Bloomberg, BRAM 3.0 6.6 0.4 2.9 1.0 0.3 1.7 -0.3 -0.1 -1.9 1.2 -0.2 1.3 0.0 0.4 -0.9 7.2 -1.4 3.3 7.4 -1.6 -0.4 0.1 1.5 -1.0 1.5 0.9 -1.9 2.4 -2.2 -1.1 0.1 -0.8 -3.6 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 j a n - 1 0 a b r - 1 0 j u l - 1 0 o u t - 1 0 j a n - 1 1 a b r - 1 1 j u l - 1 1 o u t - 1 1 j a n - 1 2 a b r - 1 2 j u l - 1 2 o u t - 1 2 j a n - 1 3 a b r - 1 3 j u l - 1 3 o u t - 1 3 j a n - 1 4 a b r - 1 4 Retail Sales Expanded (%) MoM QoQ 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.1 -0.4 0.4 -0.9 1.1 1.8 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 F e b - 1 0 A p r - 1 0 J u n - 1 0 A u g - 1 0 O c t - 1 0 D e c - 1 0 F e b - 1 1 A p r - 1 1 J u n - 1 1 A u g - 1 1 O c t - 1 1 D e c - 1 1 F e b - 1 2 A p r - 1 2 J u n - 1 2 A u g - 1 2 O c t - 1 2 D e c - 1 2 F e b - 1 3 A p r - 1 3 J u n - 1 3 A u g - 1 3 O c t - 1 3 D e c - 1 3 F e b - 1 4 A p r - 1 4 J u n - 1 4 Activity Index (QoQ - seasonal adjusted) Source: BCB 5 BRAM ECONOMIC BULLETIN August 18, 2014
Next week, the preview for the August PMIs of the US, China and the Euro Zone will be dis- closed and should bring more information about the pace of global activity during the third quarter. In the US, the minutes of the FOMC will be published and should bring details about conflic- ting opinions of the committee, and information about how the economy is far from the goals of acti- vity, employment and inflation. Also several indicators of real estate and inflation will be released. The highlight of the week will be the start of the Jackson Hole symposium with Janet Yellen's speech on Friday. In Europe, inflation data from the UK, consumer confidence in the Eurozone and the Minutes of the Bank of England will be released. In Brazil, the IPCA-15 for August will be released, it should pre- sent stable inflation of 0.15% in the wake of declining inflation of hotels after the World Cup, the July unemployment rate, the current account result and foreign direct investment in July will also be disclo- sed. 6 BRAM ECONOMIC BULLETIN August 18, 2014
MARKET INDICATORS
10.82 11.36 11.53 10.85 11.41 11.66 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.8 DI J an15 DI Jan16 DI J an17 Brazil Yield Curve Term Structure (DI swaps) - % 8/15/2014 8/9/2014 5.28 5.94 5.11 5.86 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 NTN-B 2017 NTN-B 2024 NTN-B yield (%) 8/9/2014 8/15/2014 Quotation Week Monthly Change Year 12 Months Swiss Franc 0.90 0.24% 0.62% -1.14% 2.54% Euro 1.34 -0.17% -0.02% -2.59% 0.30% British Pound 1.67 -0.49% -1.16% 0.80% 6.69% Canadian Dolar 1.09 0.61% 0.00% -2.59% -5.50% Australian Dolar 0.93 0.36% 0.14% 4.38% 1.82% Russian Ruble 36.17 0.04% -1.34% -9.13% -8.83% Japan Yen 102.25 -0.21% 0.54% 2.99% -4.77% Yuan (China) 6.15 0.15% 0.43% -1.51% -0.56% Indian Rupee 60.77 0.62% -0.35% 1.69% 1.11% Real 2.27 0.53% -0.33% 4.00% 3.06% Chilean Peso 577.71 -0.31% -0.97% -9.05% -11.55% Mexican Peso 13.10 1.17% 0.92% -0.45% -2.12% Colombian Peso 1887.01 0.14% -0.56% 2.25% 0.75% Peruvian Sol 2.80 -0.15% 0.10% -0.06% -0.04% Turkish Lira 2.17 -1.31% -1.47% -1.17% -11.10% Bangladesh Taka 77.44 0.06% 0.04% 0.29% 0.41% Quotation Week Monthly Variation Year 12 Months CRB 483.8 -0.17% -0.96% 6.00% 2.26% CRB (in Reais) 1096.5 -0.90% -0.83% 1.72% -0.98% Crude Oil BRENT 103.2 -1.77% -2.70% -4.95% -1.43% Libor USD 3m 0.23 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 Libor EUR 3m 0.20 -0.01 -0.01 -0.09 -0.03 Italian Govt Bond 10y 2.59 -0.23 -0.11 -1.54 -1.66 German Govt Bond 10y 0.95 -0.10 -0.20 -0.98 -0.93 US Govt Bond 10y 2.32 -0.10 -0.24 -0.71 -0.45 CDS Brazil 5y 151 -16 -5 -43 -42 VIX 14.4 -1.4 -2.5 0.9 -0.3 Quotation Week Monthly Change Year 12 Months S&P 500 Index 1,946.7 0.78% 0.83% 5.32% 17.18% Dow Jones 16,616.7 0.38% 0.32% 0.24% 9.96% CAC (France) 4,174.4 0.64% -1.69% -2.83% 1.98% DAX (Germany) 9,092.6 0.92% -3.35% -4.81% 8.55% FTSE 100 (UK) 6,689.1 1.85% -0.61% -0.89% 3.17% Nikkei 225 (Japan) 15,318.3 3.65% -1.94% -5.97% 11.38% Shangai (China) 2,331.1 1.46% 1.12% 5.27% 6.99% Ibovespa 56,498.3 1.67% 1.20% 9.69% 10.98% Data collected at 11:55 (1) Positive variations of currencies mean appreciation over the dollar (2) Stock indices are measured in local currencies Currencies Commodities and Interest Rates Stock Indices 7 BRAM ECONOMIC BULLETIN August 18, 2014
CALENDAR & PROJECTIONS
Date Event Country Period BRAM Consensus Prior 8/19 to 8/22 - Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) China Jul -- 0.80% 0.20% - Tax Collections Brazil Jul -- -- 91387M - CAGED - Government Registred Job Creation Brazil Jul -- 6521.00 25363.00 - CNI Industrial Confidence Brazil Aug -- -- 46.40 Tuesday 19-ago 09:30 CPI (MoM) USA Jul -- 0.10% 0.30% 09:30 CPI (YoY) USA Jul -- 2.00% 2.10% 09:30 CPI Core (MoM) USA Jul -- -- 238.08 09:30 Housing Starts USA Jul -- 970K 893K Wednesday 20-ago 05:30 Bank of England Minutes United Kingdom -- -- -- -- 09:00 IPCA-15 (MoM) Brazil Aug 0.15% 0.22% 0.17% 09:00 IPCA-15 (YoY) Brazil Sep 6.50% -- 6.51% 11:45 Fed Releases Minutes from July 29-30 FOMC Meeting USA -- -- -- -- Thursday 21-ago 05:00 PMI Manufacturing Euro Z. Aug -- 51.00 51.80 05:00 PMI Services Euro Z. Aug -- 53.90 54.20 05:00 PMI Composite Euro Z. Aug -- 53.40 53.80 09:00 Unemployment Rate Brazil Jul -- -- -- 09:30 Initial Jobless Claims USA -- -- -- 311K 11:00 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook USA Aug -- 20.00 23.90 11:00 Existing Home Sales USA Jul -- 5.00M 5.04M 11:00 Consumer Confidence Euro Z. Aug -- -9.40 -8.40 11:00 Leading Index (MoM) USA Jul -- 0.60% 0.30% Friday 22-ago 10:30 Current Account Balance Brazil Jul -- -- -$3345M 10:30 Foreign Investiment Brazil Jul -- -- $3924M 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP (annual %) -0.3% 7.5% 2.7% 0.9% 2.5% 1.0% 1.0% Inflation - IPCA/IBGE (% p.a.) 4.3% 5.9% 6.5% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3% 6.5% Inflation - IGP-M (% p.a.) -1.7% 11.3% 5.1% 7.8% 5.5% 4.5% 6.6% Selic (end of period) 8.75% 10.75% 11.00% 7.25% 10.00% 11.00% 12.50% Selic (annual average) 9.92% 10.00% 11.75% 8.46% 8.44% 10.50% 11.75% BRL/USD average 1.99 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.29 2.56 BRL/USD end of period (Average December) 1.74 1.67 1.83 2.08 2.35 2.40 2.70 Exports (USD billion) 153.0 201.9 256.0 242.6 242.2 238.5 243.3 Imports (USD billion) 127.6 181.6 226.2 223.1 239.6 236.5 233.0 Trade Balance (USD billion) 25.4 20.3 29.8 19.5 2.6 2.0 10.4 Current Account Balance (USD billion) -24.3 -47.4 -52.6 -54.2 -81.1 -82.0 -65.0 Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -2.3 -2.1 -2.4 -3.6 -3.6 -3.0 Primary Budget Surplus (% of GDP) 2.1 2.8 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.6 2.1 Net Public Debt (% of GDP) 42.1 39.1 36.4 35.3 33.6 34.5 34.8 Macroeconomic Projections - BRAM 8 BRAM ECONOMIC BULLETIN August 18, 2014
Phone.: 55 11 2178-6600 economia@bram.bradesco.com.br The opinions, estimates and forecasts shown in this report are based on our judgment and subject to change without prior notice, as are perspectives for financial markets, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information shown here is reliable, but do not guarantee its accuracy and advise that it may be shown in a summarized manner. This material is not intended to be an offer or request to buy or sell any financial instrument. BRAM - Bradesco Asset Management is the fund management company of Banco Bradesco S.A. BRAM - Bradesco Asset Management - All rights reserved Text based on information released by: 08/15/2014 Other editions are available on our website: www.bradescoasset.com.br, in Information to Investors > Macroeconomic Reports.
FERNANDO HONORATO BARBOSA Chief Economist fernandohb@bram.bradesco.com.br
DANIEL XAVIER FRANCISCO danielxavier@bram.bradesco.com.br