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CBS News/New York Times Poll

For release: Wednesday, September 17, 2014
6:30 PM EDT



The Threat from Isis: Support for Air Strikes but Poor Marks for the President
September 12-15, 2014

Many Americans support some of the measures the President outlined in his speech
about ISIS last week. Seven in ten Americans support air strikes in Iraq and Syria to
combat the ISIS terrorists, but 55% oppose sending U.S. ground troops.

Nevertheless, President Obama receives low marks for his handling of ISIS militants,
and 55% of Americans dont think he has a clear plan for dealing with them. 57% think
he isnt being tough enough with the militants.

58% of Americans see ISIS as a major threat to the security of the U.S., though eight in
10 are at least somewhat concerned that intervention in Iraq and Syria will lead to a long
and costly involvement.

Most Americans dont think the U.S. should take the lead in solving international
conflicts, though the percentage that thinks it should has risen from 31% in February to
42% today.

How to Handle the Threat from ISIS

President Obamas speech last week hasnt convinced most Americans that he has a clear plan
for dealing with the situation involving ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria. Most Americans - 55% -
dont think President Obama has a clear plan for dealing with ISIS.

Does President Obama Have a Clear Plan for Dealing with ISIS?
Total Reps Dems Inds
Yes 35% 16% 57% 29%
No 55 75 34 60

The Presidents approval rating on handling the situation reflects that: overall, more Americans
disapprove (48%) than approve (39%) of his handling of ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria. Most
Democrats (63%) approve, while most Republicans (74%) disapprove.

President Obamas Handling of ISIS
Total Reps Dems Inds
Approve 39% 16% 63% 35%
Disapprove 48 74 26 49

In addition, 57% of Americans dont think President Obama is being tough enough in dealing
with ISIS militants, while just 31% think his approach is about right. Republicans are particularly
critical of President Obama on this measure: 83% dont think he is being tough enough.



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Is President Obama Tough Enough In Dealing With ISIS?
Total Reps Dems Inds
Not tough enough 57% 83% 40% 54%
About right 31 12 50 29
Too tough 2 0 2 3

Still, some of the potential actions against ISIS outlined by President Obama find favor with
many Americans. 71% favor continuing airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq, while 69% favor
expanding air strikes to include ISIS targets in neighboring Syria. Sending in additional military
advisors into Iraq to help the Iraqi Army fight ISIS militants also gains favor with a majority of
Americans (66%). These three measures enjoy strong bi-partisan support.

Americans are less enthusiastic about training and providing military equipment to rebels in
Syria so that they can fight ISIS militants in that country: 48% approve, while 40% disapprove.
Most Americans 55% - are opposed to sending ground troops to fight ISIS.

Dealing With ISIS: Do You Favor or Oppose the U.S.?
Favor Oppose
Launching airstrikes in Iraq 71% 21
Launching airstrikes in Syria 69% 21
Sending in more military advisors to Iraq 66% 29
Training and equipping anti-ISIS rebels in Syria 48% 40
Sending ground troops to fight ISIS 39% 55

Most Republicans (62%) favor sending ground troops into Iraq or Syria, while most Democrats
(65%) and independents (59%) oppose this.

At the same time, Americans also express concern that U.S. intervention in Iraq and Syria will
lead to a long and costly involvement there. More than eight in 10 are at least somewhat
concerned about that, including 40% who are very concerned. Concern about this extends
across partisan lines.

Concerned that U.S. Intervention in Iraq and Syria
Will Lead to Long & Costly Involvement?
Total Reps Dems Inds
Very concerned 40% 34% 42% 42%
Somewhat concerned 43 45 43 41
Not too/not at all concerned 16 18 12 15

Still, Americans take the threat from ISIS seriously. Though most (60%) dont think ISIS is a
direct threat to their own personal security, 58% think the Syria and Iraq-based terrorist group is
a major threat to the security of the United States. More Americans think ISIS is a major threat
than either Al Qaeda (49%) or Russia (32%).

How Great a Threat to the U.S. Is?
ISIS Al Qaeda Russia
Major threat 58% 49% 32%
Minor threat 21 28 25
Not a threat 16 17 38


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This coincides with a growing willingness by Americans for the U.S. to take the lead in solving
international conflicts. The percentage of Americans that think the U.S. should take the lead
role in solving international conflicts has risen slightly since the summer, to 42% now. Earlier
this year, just 31% felt the U.S. should assume this role. Still, most Americans - 54% - think the
U.S. should not take the leading role.

Should the U.S. Take the Lead Role to Solve International Conflicts?
Now 6/2014 2/2014 5/2013 4/2003
Yes 42% 37% 31% 35% 48%
No 54 58 65 58 43

Should the U.S. Have Withdrawn from Iraq?

The surge of ISIS in the region occurs roughly two and a half years after the removal of the last
remaining U.S. combat troops from Iraq in 2011. Just under half of Americans think the U.S.
should have left some American troops in Iraq; about the same percentage thinks U.S. troops
should not have been left there. Nearly two in three Republicans think U.S. troops should have
remained there, while far fewer Democrats and independents agree.

U.S. Troops in Iraq
Total Reps Dems Inds
All should have left 46% 27% 55% 50%
Some should have remained 47 68 38 43

Negotiating with Hostage-Takers

The threat of ISIS grew in the public consciousness with the execution of two American
journalists and one British aid worker captured by ISIS the three victims hailing from countries
that have a policy of refusing to negotiate with hostage-takers to secure their release.

Most Americans support this policy: 53% of Americans say that the U.S. government should
never negotiate with international terrorists for hostages under any circumstances. 38% think
there are circumstances when the government should do so. While most Republicans and
independents think the U.S. should never negotiate with terrorists, Democrats are more divided.

Circumstances When U.S. Should Negotiate with Terrorists for Hostages?
Total Reps Dems Inds
Yes 38% 33% 45% 36%
No, never 53 56 49 55

Handling an International Crisis

While 53% have at least some confidence in President Obamas ability to handle an
international crisis, just 22% say they have a lot of confidence down from polls conducted
earlier this year, and just half of what it was two years ago.







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Confidence in Obamas Handling of an International Crisis
Now 7/2014 3/2014 9/2012
A lot 22% 25% 28% 39%
Some 31 27 25 26
A little 19 20 18 13
None 27 27 27 21

Among Democrats, 47% have a lot of confidence, compared to just 3% of Republicans and 14%
of independents.

The Threat of Terrorism

For the first time in his presidency, more Americans disapprove than approve of President
Obamas handling of the threat of terrorism. Just 41% of Americans approve -- an all-time low,
and a drop of 12 percentage points since last March.

President Obamas Handling of Terrorism
Now 3/2014 11/2013 9/2013 5/2011*
Approve 41% 53% 51% 49% 72%
Disapprove 50 38 41 43 19
*After the killing of Osama bin Laden

There is no overall consensus as to the impact President Obamas policies have had on
terrorism directed towards the U.S. 29% of Americans think his policies have made the country
safer, while 33% think they have made the country less safe. 31% think his policies have had
no impact. Views are highly partisan.

Policies of the Obama Administration Have Made the U.S.
Total Reps Dems Inds
Safer 29% 12% 51% 23%
Less safe 33 54 14 35
No effect 31 31 31 31

Concerns about terrorism have risen slightly. 16% of Americans think a terrorist attack in the
U.S. is very likely to happen in the next few months; 11% felt that way in March. Another 35%
think an attack is somewhat likely. Expectations for attacks tend to rise after other terrorist
incidents, such as the Boston Marathon bombing in 2013, the underwear bomber in late 2009,
and the Madrid bombing in 2004.

Likelihood of Terror Attack in U.S. in Next Few Months
Now 3/2014 4/2013 4/2012 1/2010 8/2006 7/2004 10/2001
Very likely 16% 11% 24% 10% 26% 16% 24% 53%
Somewhat likely 35 30 42 27 40 43 47 35
Not very/at all likely 44 54 31 57 30 39 27 10

Concerns about restricting civil liberties to fight terrorism have risen since earlier this year.
Now, 28% think the government has gone too far restricting civil liberties to fight terrorism, up
from 20% in April. Still, about half think the balance between civil liberties and fighting terrorism
is about right.



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In Fighting Terrorism, has the Government
Now 4/2013 8/2011
Gone too far in restricting people's civil liberties 28% 20% 25%
Not gone far enough 18 26 17
Right balance 48 49 52


_____________________________________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone September 12-15, 2014 among 1,009 adults nationwide. The error due to
sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for
subgroups may be higher.

Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone
numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in
English and Spanish. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public
Polls.


CBS News/ New York Times Poll
The Threat from ISIS: Support for Airstrikes but Poor Marks for the President
September 12-15, 2014

Q1-Q3 Released separately

Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy?

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
Total Rep Dem Ind Jul14c
% % % % %
Approve 34 8 63 28 36
Disapprove 58 91 29 60 48
Don't know/No answer 8 1 8 12 16

Q5 Released separately

Q6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the threat of terrorism?

Mar14c
Approve 41 15 65 38 53
Disapprove 50 79 26 51 38
Don't know/No answer 9 6 9 11 9

Q7-Q8 Released separately

Q8a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation with ISIS militants in Iraq and
Syria?

Approve 39 16 63 35
Disapprove 48 74 26 49
Don't know/No answer 13 11 11 17

Q9-Q33 Released separately

Q34. Do you think the United States should or should not take the leading role among all other countries in the world in
trying to solve international conflicts?


Yes, should take the leading role 42 52 38 39 37
No, should not take the leading role 54 43 56 57 58
Don't know/No answer 5 5 6 4 5

Q35a. Overall, in its efforts to fight terrorism, do you think the U.S. government has gone too far in restricting people's civil
liberties, or has it not gone far enough, or has the balance been about right?

Apr13b
Too far 28 23 19 35 20
Not far enough 18 25 15 16 26
About right 48 46 60 42 49
Don't know/No answer 6 7 5 7 5







Q36. How likely do you think it is that there will be a terrorist attack in the United States within the next few months--very
likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
Total Rep Dem Ind Mar14c
% % % % %
Very likely 16 23 11 17 11
Somewhat likely 35 45 30 33 30
Not very likely 30 24 34 29 35
Not at all likely 14 6 20 15 19
Don't know/No answer 5 2 4 6 6

Q37. Do you think there are circumstances when the United States government should negotiate with international
terrorists who are holding American hostages, or should the U.S. government never negotiate with terrorists under any
circumstances?

Oct88b*
Should negotiate 38 33 45 36 37
Never negotiate 53 56 49 55 53
Don't know/No answer 9 11 6 10 10
*Among probably electorate, Wording change: omits American

Q38-Q47 Released separately

Q48. Do you think the U.S. should have removed all U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011, or should the U.S. have left some
troops there?

Jun14d
Should have removed all 46 27 55 50 50
Should have left some troops 47 68 38 43 42
Don't know/No answer 6 5 6 7 7

Q39. How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama's ability to handle an international crisis--a lot, some, not
much, or none at all?

Jul14c
A lot 22 3 47 14 25
Some 31 13 36 38 27
Not much 19 30 10 19 20
None at all 27 54 7 26 27
Don't know/No answer 1 * - 3 2

Q40. Do you think the policies of the Obama administration have made the United States safer from terrorism, less safe
from terrorism, or have the policies of the Obama administration not affected the safety of the United States from
terrorism?

Jun14d
Safer 29 12 51 23 29
Less safe 33 54 14 35 36
No effect 31 31 31 31 31
Don't know/No answer 7 3 5 10 4








Q40a. Do you think Al Qaeda is a threat to the security of the United States, or not?
(IF YES, ASK): Do you think it is a major threat or a minor threat?

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Yes, major 49 62 49 42
Yes, minor 28 23 28 32
Not a threat 17 11 19 20
Don't know/No answer 5 5 4 6

Q41 Blank

Q54. Do you think Russia is a threat to the security of the United States, or not?
(IF YES, ASK): Do you think it is a major threat or a minor threat?

Yes, major 32 38 30 29
Yes, minor 25 30 22 25
Not a threat 38 27 42 40
Don't know/No answer 6 4 6 6

Q42. A militant group called the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, known as ISIS or ISIL, has taken control of some areas in
Iraq and Syria and has killed two American journalists. How much have you heard or read about ISIS and their actions a
lot, some or not much?

A lot 48 58 44 45
Some 33 29 37 32
Not much 18 12 17 21
Nothing at all 2 1 1 3
Don't know/No answer * - * *

Q43. Do you think the militant group ISIS is a threat to the security of the United States, or not?
(IF YES, ASK): Do you think it is a major threat or a minor threat?

Yes, major 58 76 52 54
Yes, minor 21 14 25 21
Not a threat 16 7 19 19
Don't know/No answer 4 2 5 5

Q44. Do you think the militant group ISIS is a threat to YOUR OWN personal security, or not?
(IF YES, ASK): Do you think it is a major threat or a minor threat?

Yes, major 23 31 21 20
Yes, minor 14 20 10 13
Not a threat 60 47 66 63
Don't know/No answer 4 3 3 5

Q45. Do you think Barack Obama has a clear plan for dealing with ISIS militants, or not?

Yes, has clear plan 35 16 57 29
No, does not have clear plan 55 75 34 60
Don't know/No answer 10 9 10 11







Q45a. Do you think Barack Obama is being too tough, not tough enough or about right in dealing with ISIS militants?

** TOTAL RESPONDENTS **
Total Rep Dem Ind
% % % %
Too tough 2 - 2 3
Not tough enough 57 83 40 54
About right 31 12 50 29
Don't know/No answer 10 5 8 14

Q46. Do you favor or oppose US airstrikes against ISIS militants in IRAQ?

Favor 71 83 72 64
Oppose 21 11 22 26
Don't know/No answer 8 6 6 10

Q47. Do you favor or oppose US airstrikes against ISIS militants in SYRIA?

Favor 69 84 68 63
Oppose 21 11 22 26
Don't know/No answer 9 6 9 11

Q47a. Do you favor or oppose the U.S. training and providing military equipment to rebels in Syria so that they can fight
ISIS militants?

Favor 48 56 54 41
Oppose 40 34 35 47
Don't know/No answer 11 10 10 12

Q47b. Do you favor or oppose the U.S. sending additional military advisors to Iraq to help the Iraqi army fight ISIS
militants?

Favor 66 77 65 60
Oppose 29 18 30 33
Don't know/No answer 6 5 4 7

Q47c. Do you favor or oppose the U.S. sending ground troops into Iraq or Syria to fight ISIS militants?

Favor 39 62 29 34
Oppose 55 35 65 59
Don't know/No answer 6 4 6 7

Q48 Blank

Q49. How concerned are you that U.S. intervention in Iraq and Syria will lead to a long and costly involvement there
very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not at all concerned?

Jun14d
%
Very concerned 40 34 42 42 54
Somewhat concerned 43 45 43 41 31
Not too concerned 12 16 9 11 9
Not at all concerned 4 2 3 4 4
Don't know/No answer 2 2 2 2 1







Unweighted Weighted
Total Respondents 1,009

Total Republicans 242 234
Total Democrats 317 304
Total Independents 450 470


Margin of error: 3pts