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Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane

Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 1
The NOAA SLOSH Model
Robbie Berg
NOAA / National Weather Service
National Hurricane Center
Forum on Hydrodynamic Modeling in the Hudson River Estuary
New York City, New York
31 January 2012
The SLOSH Model
Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes
A numerical model developed by the National Weather
Service to estimate storm surge heights from historical,
hypothetical, or predicted storms.
Purpose
Guidance for storm surge forecasts during real-time events
Assess vulnerability to storm surge
Basis for Hurricane Evacuation Studies
Since storm surge is dictated by many different factors, each
with their own uncertainties, SLOSH (nor any other surge
model for that matter) cannot answer the question:
What is the exact amount of surge an approaching storm will produce at
specific locations?
Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane
Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 2
Model Inputs
Parameterization of a tropical cyclone wind field (track, pressure, radius of
maximum winds [RMW])
Real-time forecast (real-time forecast information)
Historical storm (validation and training)
Synthetic storms (assess vulnerability)
A SLOSH basin
Consists of a grid within which are included geographic features such as
height/depth, trees, barriers, etc. used to control, route, and impede the flow
of water (topography and bathymetry)
Polar, elliptical, or hyperbolic grid centered on an area of interest
Grid is arranged to provide fine resolution in the primary area of interest, and
coarse resolution along the boundary region
Currently 37 operational basins covering at-risk coastal communities
Model Basics
SLOSH does include:
Flow through barriers, gaps, and passes
Deep passes between bodies of water
Inland inundation (wet or dry cells)
Overtopping of barrier systems, levees, and roads
Coastal reflection (coastally trapped Kelvin waves)
SLOSH does not include
Breaking waves and wave run-up
Astronomical tidal cycle
Synthetic runs can be initialized at varying levels to account for different points
within the tidal cycle or account for a tidal anomaly
Normal river flow
Precipitation
Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane
Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 3
Model Geography and Resolution
New York Basin (NY3)
Recently updated: reference changed from NGVD29 to
NAVD88, increased resolution, inclusion of new Lidar data,
hypothetical tracks include average and large storms
30,832 individual cells
18,595 overland cells
Average cell resolution: ~ 3.1 km
2
Average overland cell resolution: ~ 2.2 km
2
Minimum overland cell resolution: 214 m
2
Minimum anywhere in U.S. is 66 m
2
Only 4 other SLOSH basins have higher resolution
than NY3
Covers Hudson River continuously up to Albany
Butdoes not include freshwater riverine flow
To be used in operational forecasting, a storm surge model
must be fast and robust
NHC produces new forecasts every 6 hours
The NHC Storm Surge Unit has roughly 30 min 1 hour to generate SLOSH
output and storm surge forecast based on the hurricane forecast concurrently
being created by the Hurricane Specialist
Probabilistic storm surge product must be available within
30 minutes of advisory release
2000 to 6000 individual SLOSH simulations run on a supercomputer
Operational Time Constraints
Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane
Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 4
Assumes a perfect forecast
NHC does not condone its use during a real-time event
Only relevant in the response stage
SLOSH Products
Deterministic
Takes storms of a particular category, direction of motion, and point within the tidal
cycle, and moves them inland at all locations along the coast
Useful for preparations before a storm arrives
NY3 basin has 288 MEOWs user selects:
Direction of motion: NE, NNE, N, NNW, NW, WNW
Category: 1, 2, 3, 4
Forward speed: 10 mph, 20 mph, 30 mph, 40 mph, 50 mph, 60 mph
Point within tidal cycle: mean tide, high tide
Category 2, moving NNW at 30 mph, at high tide
SLOSH Products
Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW)
NOT the flooding footprint for one storm
Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane
Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 5
Takes storms of a particular category and moves them inland at all locations along the
coast in different directions at different speeds
Useful in pre-season planning and many days before a storm arrives
Basis for coastal evacuation zones
NY3 basin has 8 MOMs user selects:
Category: 1, 2, 3, 4
Point within tidal cycle: mean tide, high tide
Category 2 at high tide
SLOSH Products
Maximum of MEOWs (MOM)
NOT the flooding footprint for one storm
2000 6000 possible storms based around actual forecast and
recent forecast errors
Statistics computed from this set of storms
Varied parameters:
Cross track error (landfall location)
Along track error (timing)
Intensity error
Radius of maximum winds error
SLOSH Products
Probabilistic Storm Surge (P-surge)
Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane
Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 6
SLOSH Products: When to Use
Tier 1 Tier 1
Response Response
< 48 h of landfall
Tier 3 Tier 3
P Planning/Mitigation lanning/Mitigation
> 120 h of landfall
Tier 2 Tier 2
Readiness Readiness
48 h 120 h of landfall
* Always available from the SLOSH Display Program or NHC website
** Available on the NWS and NHC websites when a hurricane watch/warning is in effect
Validation
Hurricane Irene
Validation uses best track
of Irene removes the
influence of meteorological
uncertainty
Tidal constituent of gauge
data removed since SLOSH
does not include tide
SLOSH appears to have done
well with maximum surge
and timing in NY area
Reference:
C. Forbes and J. Rhome, 2011: An automated
operational storm surge prediction system for
the National Hurricane Center. Estuarine and
Coastal Modeling XII, M. L. Spaulding [ed],
ASCE, submitted.
Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane
Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 7
Validation
Jelesnianski, C. P., J. Chen, and W. A. Shaffer, 1992: SLOSH:
Sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes. NOAA
Technical Report NWS 48, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, U. S. Department of
Commerce, 71 pp.
Glahn, B., A. Taylor, N. Kurkowski, and W. A. Shaffer, 2009: The Role
of the SLOSH Model in National Weather Service Storm Surge
Forecasting. National Weather Digest, Volume 33, Number 1, 3-
14.
1992 study found higher surge forecasts have a slight high bias; slight low bias for lower surge
forecasts; 20% for significant surges
2009 study found more accurate predictions for surge higher than about 12-13 ft.
Still some low bias at lower surge predictions
The use of deterministic approaches does not account for
hurricane forecast uncertainty and is therefore of little use
for real-time storm surge forecasting
Forecast uncertainties: track, intensity, forward speed, size, radius of
maximum winds
Ensemble approaches are necessary in order to fully model
and simulate the spectrum of uncertainty
NHC recommends pre-generated surge maps and atlases (MOMs and
MEOWs) and/or a real-time ensemble system (P-surge)
The need for an ensemble technique necessitates a computationally efficient
model (runtimes of minutes vs. hours)
Concluding Remarks
Robbie Berg, NOAA National Hurricane
Center
1/31/2012
NOAA Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model 8
Contacts
Robbie Berg
Hurricane Specialist
Robert.Berg@noaa.gov
Jamie Rhome
Storm Surge Specialist
Jamie.R.Rhome@noaa.gov
Acknowledgments: Michael Lowry, Tarah Sharon, Cristina Forbes, John Cangialosi
SLOSH Reference:
Jelesnianski, C. P., J. Chen, and W. A. Shaffer, 1992: SLOSH: Sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes.
NOAA Technical Report NWS 48, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U. S. Department of
Commerce, 71 pp.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/ssurge_slosh.shtml
http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov

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