Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River

Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Northeast River Forecast Center Northeast River Forecast Center
Edward J. Capone Edward J. Capone
Service Coordination Hydrologist Service Coordination Hydrologist
Hudson River Estuary Conference Hudson River Estuary Conference
Jan 31, 2012 Jan 31, 2012
Northeast River Forecast Center Northeast River Forecast Center
Edward J. Capone Edward J. Capone
Service Coordination Hydrologist Service Coordination Hydrologist
Hudson River Estuary Conference Hudson River Estuary Conference
Jan 31, 2012 Jan 31, 2012
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River Forecast Centers River Forecast Centers
Mission: Protection
of Life and Property
Flood Guidance
Water Supply
13 River Forecast
Centers across USA
122 Weather
Forecast Offices
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
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Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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NERFC Operations NERFC Operations
Nearly 200 forecast location
Time to Peak: 6-48 hours
Elevation from 0 6600 ft
River Basins
Connecticut
Mohawk
Hudson
Merrimack
Kennebec
Penobscot
St John
Staff of 14
Located in Taunton,
Massachusetts
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Hudson Calibrated Watersheds Hudson Calibrated Watersheds
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
3
Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Original Model NWS FLDWAV (2007-2009)
Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System
(HEC-RAS ) allows one dimensional steady and unsteady
river flow hydraulics calculations
Developed by US Army Corps of Engineers (HEC Davis)
HEC Modifications in LINUX System into FEWS
Publically available and widely accepted by government
agencies (USACE, NOAA-NWS) and private firms
Mathematical Model of Hudson
River Estuary -- HEC-RAS
Mathematical Model of Hudson
River Estuary -- HEC-RAS
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Model Inputs
X-section geometry - Battery to Troy Dam
Time Series Inflow Hydrograph at Troy
Lateral Inflows 4 time series hydrographs
Downstream Boundary Stage Time Series (Battery)
Mannings n coefficients (flow/stage)
Model Outputs
Computed Water Surface Elevations (CWSEL)
Depth of Flow
Very Rough velocities
Basic Model Input/Output Basic Model Input/Output
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
4
Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Main Model Purpose Main Model Purpose
Forecast Water Surface Levels at Gage Locations along
the River at Albany and Poughkeepsie (Flooding)
WFO Albany
Emergency Managers -- backwater flooding of local
tributaries
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Hudson River Model -- 150 miles Hudson River Model -- 150 miles
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
5
Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Assumption 1: one dimensional flow
Downstream velocity across channel depends only on depth
Zero velocity laterally (across channel)
Zero velocity vertically
Assumption 2: uniform water surface cross channel
Assumption 3: slope of river bed is small
(sin tan = dz/dx )
HEC-2 (BRANCH) --- NWS FLDWAV --- HEC-RAS Sections
Operational Requirement Must provide a forecast in minutes
Key Assumptions & Approximations Key Assumptions & Approximations
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Height Error Stats vs. Lead-time Height Error Stats vs. Lead-time
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
6
Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Height Correlation (Skill) vs Lead-time Height Correlation (Skill) vs Lead-time
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Inflows from Irene Inflows from Irene
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
7
Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Irene Forecast Services Irene Forecast Services
Incorporation of SLOSH into Hydraulic Modeling:
1. Forecast w/in inches of morning flood/surge at POUN6
2. GFS MRPSSE ET Surge resulted in over-simulation of the
earlier overnight tide cycle
3. Underforecast of the Albany crest (2 feet) (part tide/part
rainfall )
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Downstream Boundary and Forecast Downstream Boundary and Forecast
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
8
Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Model Can Integrate
(Cornell)
Model Can Integrate
(Cornell)
Tidal variation (as observed, 4-5 feet swing)
Tributary flow levels (wet, dry, average)
Possible sea level rise at the Battery (0, 2, 4 ft)
Possible Storm surge
Wind setup (not currently implemented)
Channel changes, shoreline modifications
Future land movement (uplift, subsidence)
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Future Enhancements Future Enhancements
Additional full (x,y pairs) x-sections and structure/embankment detail
Multiple Battery forecasts NOS Stevens Institute
Delft SOBEK and DELFT3D model testing (2D/3D model)
NERFC wants to pursue the SLOSH Ensemble
More testing and evaluation is necessary to identify deficiencies in
NERFC modeling
LIDAR availability for future real-time forecast inundation mapping
NERFC at the mercy of tidal boundary forcing
SLOSH, ET Surge/GFS MRPSSE, Stevens , etc
Will experiment this spring with ESTOFS
Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System
(**Experimental until Q1 FY2012) developed by NOAA/NOS/Office of
Coast Survey/ Coast Survey Development Lab
Uses the circulation model ADCIRC
2.5 km res, and will run 4 times daily once operational
Ed Capone, NOAA NWS Northeast River
Forecast Center
1/31/2012
9
Northeast River Forecast Center Model
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Questions ? Questions ?
Thank you