220-4006

September 8-14, 2014

Assessing the November 2014 Races for
Oakland Mayor and City Council
Results of a telephone survey conducted in English,
Spanish, and Chinese, and on landlines and cell phones
Prepared for: OakMayor2014.com
2
Methodology
FM3 completed 1,012 telephone interviews with likely November 2014
voters in the City of Oakland
Interviews conducted September 8-14, 2014
Interviews conducted on landlines and cell phones
Interviews conducted in English, Spanish and Chinese (Cantonese and Mandarin)
712 interviews were conducted citywide
An additional 300 interviews were conducted in the 2nd, 4th and 6th City
Council Districts, yielding the following total number of interviews in each
District:
209 in City Council District 2
206 in City Council District 4
211 in City Council District 6
Margin of sampling error of +/- 3.7% for the citywide results
Margin of sampling error of +/- 6.9% for the City Council District results
Due to rounding, not all percentages sum to 100%
3
Vote Question Structure and
the Modeled Ranked-Choice Vote
Names and ballot designations for all certified
candidates in each race were read to respondents.
The candidates were read in random order.
Respondents were asked for their first, second and
third choices.
To model ranked-choice voting, undecided voters
were eliminated. Supporters of the lowest-ranked
candidate were re-allocated based on their second-
and third-choice preferences. The process was
repeated until a candidate reached majority support.
4
Overall Key Findings
Sizable proportions of voters remain undecided in all four elections,
enough to swing any of the elections in the favor of several different
candidates.
In the race for Mayor, Kaplan, Quan and Schaaf are the leading vote-
getters, with Kaplan (57.5%) winning the modeled ranked-choice vote
over Quan (42.5%).
39% initially undecided
In CCD 2, King (55%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote over Guillen
(45%).
62% initially undecided
In CCD 4, Broadhurst (60%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with
Washington (36%) in second place.
64% initially undecided
In CCD 6, Brooks (64%) wins the modeled ranked-choice vote with
Johnson in second place (19%).
47% initially undecided
5
The Race for
Mayor of Oakland
6
15%
13%
10%
6%
5%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
39%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
Ruby
Liu
Wilson
Williams
Sidebotham
McCullough
Houston
Karamooz
Undecided/Other
Kaplan
57.5%
Quan
42.5%
Kaplan, Quan and Schaaf are the leading vote-getters
and Kaplan wins the modeled ranked choice voting
though two in five voters are undecided.
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
Initial Vote
Ranked Choice Result
<1%
<1%
7
Undecided voters are disproportionately at the
age extremes, independent, Republican,
Asian/Pacific Islanders and African-Americans.
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
Demographic Group Undecided/DK % of Electorate
All Voters 39% 100%
Ages 18-29 48% 12%
Ages 75+ 48% 8%
Independents Ages 18-49 47% 15%
City Council District 3 46% 16%
Asians/Pacific Islanders 46% 10%
Chinese 46% 7%
Women Ages 18-49 45% 25%
1+ Independent Households 44% 21%
African-American 43% 28%
Independent Women 43% 12%
Republicans 43% 6%
8
The first seven candidates eliminated by
ranked choice voting were (in order):
Karamooz
Houston
McCullough
Sidebotham
Williams
Wilson
Liu
9
26%
22%
16%
10%
9%
8%
4%
4%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
Ruby
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
8
th
RCV Round 9
th
RCV Round
Ruby was eliminated in the 8
th
round,
and many of her supporters went to Schaaf.
26%
23%
18%
11%
10%
8%
4%
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or
Previously Eliminated
10%
35%
12%
6%
0%
0%
0%
37%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
Ruby
10
26%
23%
18%
11%
10%
8%
4%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
9
th
RCV Round 10
th
RCV Round
Anderson was the next to be eliminated, and
many of his supporters were unallocated.
28%
24%
19%
11%
10%
8%
13%
3%
0%
0%
55%
27%
2%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
Anderson
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or
Previously Eliminated
11
28%
24%
19%
11%
10%
8%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
10
th
RCV Round 11
th
RCV Round
A sizable portion of Parkers
supporters went to Kaplan.
32%
26%
20%
12%
10%
6%
5%
9%
3%
40%
37%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
Parker
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or
Previously Eliminated
12
32%
26%
20%
12%
10%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
11
th
RCV Round 12
th
RCV Round
Like Anderson, many of Siegels supporters
were unallocated once he was eliminated.
36%
29%
21%
14%
12%
5%
5%
55%
22%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
Siegel
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or
Previously Eliminated
13
36%
29%
21%
14%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
12
th
RCV Round 13
th
RCV Round
Tumans supporters tended to move
to Schaaf or be unallocated.
40%
31%
29%
5%
40%
47%
8%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
Tuman
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or
Previously Eliminated
14
40%
31%
29%
Kaplan
Quan
Schaaf
1. If the election were held today, who would be your first choice for Mayor of Oakland if the candidates were
13
th
RCV Round 14
th
RCV Round
Quan narrowly beat out Schaaf in the final
elimination, though Schaaf supporters were
not likely to support either Kaplan or Quan.
57.5%
42.5%
10%
70%
21%
2nd/3rd Choice Not Made or
Previously Eliminated
15
Q2.
29%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
22%
35%
Jean Quan
Jason Anderson
Rebecca Kaplan
Dan Siegel
Ken Houston
Saied Karamooz
Peter Liu
Bryan Parker
Libby Schaaf
Nancy Sidebotham
Joe Tuman
Charles Williams
Pat McCullough
Courtney Ruby
Eric Wilson
No one/Could vote for any
Don't know
Respondents were asked:
Is there any candidate for Mayor of Oakland
that you would never vote for?
16
The Race for City Council
17
55%
45%
13%
9%
7%
7%
1%
62%
King
Guillen
Blackburn
Park
Maxey
Undecided/
Other
King and Guillen appear to be the top two contenders
with King wining the modeled ranked choice voting
though more than three in five voters are undecided.
Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result
3. In your area, there are five candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to three of them. If the
election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were
18
60%
36%
4%
22%
13%
1%
64%
Broadhurst
Washington
Lim
Undecided/
Other
Broadhurst has a lead in CCD 4, though more
than three in five voters are undecided.
Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result
4. In your area, there are three candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to three of them. If the
election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were
19
64%
19%
8%
9%
34%
10%
4%
5%
47%
Brooks
Johnson
Moore
Nosakhare
Undecided/
Other
Initial Vote Ranked Choice Result
5. In your area, there are four candidates for City Council, and similar to the election for mayor, you can vote for up to three of them. If the
election were held today, who would be your first choice for City Council if the candidates were
While nearly half of voters are undecided,
Brooks enjoys a three-to-one lead in CCD 6.
For more information, contact:
1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290
Oakland, CA 94612
Phone (510) 451-9521
Fax (510) 451-0384
Dave@FM3research.com
Curtis@FM3research.com
21
Appendix
22
Oakland Mayor
Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial
with
Undec.
Initial
without
Undec.
2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Rebecca
Kaplan
15.1 24.9 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.3 28.0 32.0 36.4 40.1 57.5
Jean Quan 12.7 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.6 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.5 23.2 24.3 25.6 28.5 31.2 42.5
Libby Schaaf 9.7 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 18.1 18.6 19.6 21.3 28.7
Joe Tuman 5.7 9.3 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.2 10.4 11.1 11.4 12.5 13.7
Dan Siegel 5.2 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.5 9.7 10.3
Bryan Parker 4.3 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.9
Jason
Anderson
1.9 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.2
Courtney
Ruby
2.1 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.1
Peter Liu 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.2
Eric Wilson 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.5
Charles
Williams
0.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
Nancy
Sidebotham
0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Pat
McCullough
0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9
Ken Houston 0.2 0.3 0.3
Saied
Karamooz
0.1 0.2
Undecided/
Other
39.4
23
CCD 2
Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial with
Undecided
Initial
without
Undecided
2nd 3rd 4th
Dana King 12.9 34.0 34.4 42.9 54.7
Abel Guillen 9.4 24.9 25.2 32.2 45.4
Kevin Blackburn 6.8 18.0 20.8 24.9
Andrew Park 7.4 19.5 19.7
Ken Maxey 1.4 3.6
Undecided/Other 62.2
24
CCD 4
Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial with
Undecided
Initial without
Undecided
Jill Broadhurst 21.9 60.2
Ann Campbell Washington 13.2 36.2
Paul Lim 1.3 3.7
Undecided/Other 63.6
25
CCD 6
Ranked Choice Voting Results
Candidate
Initial with
Undecided
Initial without
Undecided
Desley Brooks 33.9 64.2
Michael Johnson 10.2 19.3
James Moore 4.1 7.7
Shereda Nosakhare 4.6 8.8
Undecided/Other 47.3