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1 Executive Summary 1-4
2
Comany Profile
!istory
Overvie"
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Stoc& 'ro&ing Services
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Organi-ation C.art
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1ntro(uction to commo(ity mar&et
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4
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23-24
/ 1n(ian Commo(ity 5utures 2ar&et
1ntro(uction
Commo(ity tra(ing contracts
5uture mar&et mec.anisms
Particiants in futures mar&et 6 tra(ing roce(ure
)imitations of commo(ity future mar&et
07-43
3
%ol( Commo(ity 5uture 2ar&et 1ntro(uction
%ol( in 1n(ian Scenario
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49-37
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Sources Of %ol( 5or T.e %ol(smit.s
9
1nvestor #"areness #n( T.eir Percetion
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1nvestment in commo(ity future
5uture investment an( services exectation
31-3/
; 1mact of Sot %ol( 2ar&et on 5uture %ol( 2ar&et 33-34
4 5actors #ffecting 5uture %ol( 2ar&et 97-9;
17 51N<1N%S 94-;7
11 S=%%EST1ONS ;1
12 CONC)=S1ON ;2
10
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Executive Summary
Investing in various types of assets is an interesting activity that
attracts people from all walks of life. Investors who are having extra cash
could invest it in securities like shares or any other assets like gold,
which comes under commodity futures market. Commodity Futures are
contracts to buy specifc quantity of a particular commodity at a future
date. It is similar to the index futures and stock futures but the
underlying happens to be commodities instead of stocks.
Now days, the commodity market is in growth stage and the Karvy
Finapolis Belgaum; working as a broking frm wants to expand and for
extensive reach thinking of establishing branches in various cities of
Karnataka.
I have taken the commodity futures, to study and analyze, as it is the
emerging trend in the market, at Karvy Finapolis Belgaum, I have
taken Gold as the commodity to study the Impact of present gold price
on future gold market and its trading mechanism.
Title:Study of Commodity Market with Special Reference to
Gold. at KARVY Finapolis Belgaum
Objectives:
To study the mechanism of commodity market.
To study the spot gold market.
To study whether the goldsmiths of Belgaum city aware of
commodity market and their perception.
To analyses the impact of spot gold market on future gold
market.
To study the factors such as economic factors of US, world
political and other factors afect on future market.
Research methodology:
SAMPLE SIZE: 100 random sample size
SAMPLE TYPE: Simple random sampling
SAMPLE AREA: Belgaum city
TOOL USED FOR ANALYSES:
1.Graphical Representation of Analysis:
Pie charts
Line Chart
2.SPSS
3.Correlation
SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION:
Primary Data-
Questionnaire
Observation and personal discussion with gold
traders.
Secondary data-
Information collected from diferent websites likes Gold
World, MCX etc.
From various text books, journals, magazines, news
papers and booklets from company.
LIMITATION OF THE STUDY:
Spot prices are varying from shop to shop.
Commission has not included spot prices of the
commodity.
Study of awareness and perception of the investor is
only based on sample size.
The study of awareness is limited to Belgaum city.
Findings:
There is positive correlation between both market traders can
easily predict the future prices of the commodities and hedge their
positions.
Most of the respondents are interested in investing in equity
(i.e. 49%) when compared to the other investment alternatives
because they feel investing in equity will provide more returns to
them.
82% of Investors are aware about commodity future market.
67% of Investors have not invested as they have a perception
that it is risky and they even do not have much knowledge about
trading mechanism.
For gold price fuctuation main reasons are
Dollar depreciation / appreciation
World distress
Increase in money supply
Infation
Suggestions:
Both the markets are positively correlated the traders have
knowledge about the commodity demand and supply and their
price fuctuations. So Karvy can approach these traders and they
can easily convince them so these people are the targeted
customers for Karvy.
More Awareness program has to be conducted by Karvy
consultants so that already aware investor takes the challenge to
invest in this commodity future market. Because since this was
new to the market and also risky but gives good return. so it can
be done through by giving advertisements in local channels, News
papers, by sending E-mail to present customers etc
From survey it is found that most of the potential customers are
concerned about the genuine information and moderate brokerage
so Karvy can look upon this. If it can give good information and
charge moderate brokerage it will help to attract more and more
customers.
Conclusion
Capital market is already matured and reached at high level, every
investor interested to invest but not in commodity Future Market due to
lack of awareness. As per Data analysis most of the investors do not have
much idea of commodity market in Belgaum they are required to be given
awareness training and knowledge with the help of workshops and
seminars, as investors are willing to know more about commodity
market. There exists a high degree of positive correlation between Spot
Commodity Market and Commodity Future Market. If an amount of small
change in the spot gold market prices has the direct impact on the future
prices of gold in commodity market.
CO2P#N P*O51)E
The birth of Karvy was on a modest scale in 1981. It began with
the vision and enterprise of a small group of practicing Chartered
Accountants who founded the fagship company Karvy Consultants
Limited. We started with consulting and fnancial accounting
automation, and carved inroads into the feld of registry and share
accounting by 1985. Since then, we have utilized our experience and
superlative expertise to go from strength to strengthto better our
services, to provide new ones, to innovate, diversify and in the process,
evolved Karvy as one of Indias premier integrated fnancial service
enterprise.
Thus over the last 20 years Karvy has traveled the success route,
towards building a reputation as an integrated fnancial services
provider, ofering a wide spectrum of services. And we have made this
journey by taking the route of quality service, path breaking innovations
in service, versatility in service and fnallytotality in service.
Our highly qualifed manpower, cutting-edge technology, comprehensive
infrastructure and total customer-focus has secured for us the position of
an emerging fnancial services giant enjoying the confdence and support
of an enviable clientele across diverse felds in the fnancial world.
Our values and vision of attaining total competence in our
servicing has served as the building block for creating a great fnancial
enterprise, which stands solid on our fortresses of fnancial strength -
our various companies.
With the experience of years of holistic fnancial servicing behind
us and years of complete expertise in the industry to look forward to, we
have now emerged as a premier integrated fnancial services provider.
And today, we can look with pride at the fruits of our mastery and
experience comprehensive fnancial services that are competently
segregated to service and manage a diverse range of customer
requirements.
Overview:
KARVY, is a premier integrated fnancial services provider, and ranked
among the top fve in the country in all its business segments, services
over 16 million individual investors in various capacities, and provides
investor services to over 300 corporate, comprising the who is who of
Corporate India. KARVY covers the entire spectrum of fnancial services
such as Stock broking, Depository Participants, Distribution of fnancial
products - mutual funds, bonds, fxed deposit, equities, Insurance
Broking, Commodities Broking, Personal Finance Advisory Services,
Merchant Banking & Corporate Finance, placement of equity, IPO,
among others. Karvy has a professional management team and ranks
among the best in technology, operations and research of various
industrial segments.
Value and Vision of Karvy Stock Broking Ltd:
Our values and vision of attaining total competence in our servicing has
served as the building block for creating a great fnancial enterprise,
which stands solid on our fortress of fnancial strength our various
companies.
About KARVY Group
Karvy has traveled the success route, towards building a
reputation as an integrated fnancial services provider, ofering a wide
spectrum of services for over 20 years.
Karvy, a name long committed to service at its best. A fame
acquired through the range of corporate and retail services including
mutual funds, fxed income, equity investments, insurance to
name a few. Our values and vision of attaining total competence in our
servicing has served as a building block for creating a great fnancial
enterprise.
The birth of Karvy was on a modest scale in the year 1982. It
began with the vision and enterprise of a small group of practicing
Chartered Accountants based in Hyderabad, who founded Karvy. We
started with consulting and fnancial accounting automation, and then
carved inroads into the feld of Registry and Share Transfers.
Since then, we have utilized our quality experience and superlative
expertise to go from strength to strength to provide better and new
services to the investors. And today, we can look with pride at the fruits
of our experience into comprehensive fnancial services provider in the
Country.
KARVY Group companies are:
Karvy Consultants Limited
Karvy Stock Broking Limited
Karvy Investor Services Limited
Karvy Computershare Private Limited
Karvy Global Services Limited
Karvy Comtrade Limited
Karvy Insurance Broking Private Limited
Karvy Mutual Fund Services
Karvy Securities Limited
Stock Broking Services:
It is an undisputed fact that the stock market is unpredictable and
yet enjoys a high success rate as a wealth management and wealth
accumulation option. The diference between unpredictability and a
safety anchor in the market is provided by in-depth knowledge of market
functioning and changing trends, planning with foresight and choosing
one & rescues options with care. This is what we provide in our Stock
Broking services.
We ofer services that are beyond just a medium for buying and
selling stocks and shares. Instead we provide services, which are multi
dimensional and multi-focused in their scope. There are several
advantages in utilizing our Stock Broking services, which are the reasons
why it is one of the best in the country.
We ofer trading on a vast platform; National Stock Exchange,
Bombay Stock Exchange and Hyderabad Stock Exchange. More
importantly, we make trading safe to the maximum possible extent, by
accounting for several risk factors and planning accordingly. We are
assisted in this task by our in-depth research, constant feedback and
sound advisory facilities. Our highly skilled research team, comprising of
technical analysts as well as fundamental specialists, secure result-
oriented information on market trends, market analysis and market
predictions. This crucial information is given as a constant feedback to
our customers, through daily reports delivered thrice daily ; The Pre-
session Report, where market scenario for the day is predicted, The Mid-
session Report, timed to arrive during lunch break , where the market
forecast for the rest of the day is given and The Post-session Report, the
fnal report for the day, where the market and the report itself is
reviewed. To add to this repository of information, we publish a monthly
magazine. The Finapolis, which analyzes the latest stock market trends
and takes a close look at the various investment options, and products
available in the market, while a weekly report, called Karvy Bazaar
Baatein keeps you more informed on the immediate trends in the stock
market. In addition, our specifc industry reports give comprehensive
information on various industries. Besides this, we also ofer special
portfolio analysis packages that provide daily technical advice on scripts
for successful portfolio management and provide customized advisory
services to help you make the right fnancial moves that are specifcally
suited to your portfolio.
Our Stock Broking services are widely networked across India, with
the number of our trading terminals providing retail stock broking
facilities. Our services have increasingly ofered customer oriented
convenience, which we provide to a spectrum of investors, high-net worth
or otherwise, with equal dedication and competence.
About Karvy Commodities Broking Limited:
Commodities market, contrary to the beliefs of many people, has
been in existence in India through the ages. However the recent attempt
by the Government to permit Multi-commodity National levels exchanges
has indeed given it, a shot in the arm. As a result two exchanges Multi
Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National Commodity and derivatives
Exchange (NCDEX) have come into being. These exchanges, by virtue of
their high profle promoters and stakeholders, bundle in themselves,
online trading facilities, robust surveillance measures and a hassle-free
settlement system. The futures contracts available on a wide spectrum of
commodities like Gold, Silver, Cotton, Steel, Soya oil, Soya beans, Wheat,
Sugar, Channa etc., provide excellent opportunities for hedging the risks
of the farmers, importers, exporters, traders and large scale consumers.
They also make open an avenue for quality investments in precious
metals. The commodities market, as the movements of the stock market
or debt market do not afect it provides tremendous opportunities for
better diversifcation of risk. Realizing this fact, even mutual funds are
contemplating of entering into this market.
Karvy Commodities Broking Limited is another venture of the
prestigious Karvy group. With our well established presence in the
multifarious facets of the modern Financial services industry from stock
broking to registry services, it is indeed a pleasure for us to make foray
into the commodities derivatives market which opens yet another door for
us to deliver our service to our beloved customers and the investor public
at large.
With the high quality infrastructure already in place and a committed
Government providing continuous impetus, it is the responsibility of us,
the intermediaries to deliver these benefts at the doorsteps of our
esteemed customers. With our expertise in fnancial services, existence
across the lengths and breadths of the country and an enviable
technological edge, we are all set to bring to you, the pleasure of investing
in this burgeoning market, which can touch upon the lives of a vast
majority of the population from the farmer to the corporate alike. We are
confdent that the commodity futures can be a good value addition to
your portfolio.
The company provides investment, advisory and brokerage services
in Indian Commodities Markets. And most importantly, we ofer a wide
reach through our branch network of over 225 branches located across
180 cities.
KARVY Advantage:
Trade from anywhere in India Karvy, with its network of branches across
the length and breadth of the country, is always within your reach, no
matter where you are. This gives you the facility to trade from anywhere
in India.
Reliable research
Karvy has a dedicated team of research analysts who work round the
clock to provide the best research newsletters and advices. We reach your
desk daily, weekly and monthly.
Personalized Services
Karvy, with its wide array of personalized services from registry to stock
broking takes the pleasure of adding one more service, commodities
broking with the same personal touch
State of Infrastructure
The strong IT backbone of Karvy helps us to provide customized direct
services through our back ofce system, nation-wide connectivity and
website.
Round the clock operations in commodities trading
Indian commodities market, unlike stock market keeps awake till 11 in
the night and Karvy is all poised to ofer round the clock services
through its dedicated team of professionals.
The account opening forms are available at our branch ofces and
with our business associates. You are requested to kindly contact a
branch nearby your area and complete the account opening formalities
for commodities trading at the branches.
Also you can take a print out and fll out a simple account opening
form from our website and complete the necessary documentation as per
the checklist enclosed in the form. The form after duly flled up may be
deposited at the nearest Karvy Branch or Associate along with a
cheque/DD favoring Karvy Commodities Broking Private Limited
payable at Hyderabad towards initial margin. Please remember the
Member-Client agreement has to be executed on a non-judicial stamp
paper, as per the applicable by the Stamp Duty Act of the relevant state.
Deposit Initial Margin:
You need to deposit an initial upfront margin as specifed by the
exchange (usually between 5-10% of the contract value).The cheque/DD
should be in favour of Karvy Commodities Broking Private Limited
Mark to Market Margin:
In addition to initial margin, you also need to keep a mark to
market margin for taking care of the adverse price movements, if any.
Achievements
Among the top 5 stock brokers in India (4% of NSE volumes)
India's No. 1 Registrar & Securities Transfer Agents
Among the to top 3 Depository Participants
Largest Network of Branches & Business Associates
ISO 9002 certifed operations by DNV
Among top 10 Investment bankers
Largest Distributor of Financial Products
Adjudged as one of the top 50 IT uses in India by MIS Asia
Full Fledged IT driven operations
Organization Chart
Managing Director

Chief Managing Director
Vice-President Vice-President Vice-President Vice-President
Karvy Karvy Karvy Karvy
Securities Ltd. Stock Broking Ltd Consultants Ltd. Investors Services Ltd.

Deputy Deputy Deputy Deputy
General General General General
Manager Manager Manager Manager
Senior Manager Senior Manager Senior Manager SenoirManager


Branch Manager
Number of Team Leaders

N number of Executives
Introduction to commodity market
Ever since the drawn of civilization, commodity trading has become
an integral part of mankind. The frst and foremost reason is that
commodity represents the fundamental elements of lifestyle of human
beings. In the early days, people used to exchange goods for goods, which
was called as Barter System. With the advancement of civilization,
trading system has gone through various changes and has now entered
into an era of Future trading besides existence physical trading across
the world. The history of Commodity Future trading can be traced back
to 1688 with the introduction of Future trading in rice in Japan. This
was followed by an increased participation in commodity derivatives,
especially in Futures, in the industrialized countries like America and
Britain. All the countries opened the avenue for introduction of Future
trading in commodities in 19
th
century. Major commodity Future trading
platforms opened in the world are Chicago Board of Trade (NYBOT) and
New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
A Commodity derivative is a contract which derives its value from
an underlying commodity. The main purpose of Future market is to
provide a mechanism for successfully managing the price risk associated
with commodities. Future markets provide a platform for buyers and
sellers to trade in a huge number of diverse commodities such as
agricultural products, metals and energy. These markets are not only
meant for hedgers, speculators and arbitrages, but also for retail
investors who want to trade in booming commodity market.
Indian scenario
The commodity derivatives markets in India are as old as those of
the US. The origin of commodity derivatives markets in India can be
traced back to 1875, when Bombay Cotton Trade Association Ltd., was
set up to start trading in cotton Futures. Subsequent to this, many other
associations have started Future trading in commodities at diferent
places. For example, the Futures trading in oilseeds started in 1900 at
Bombay, raw jute and jute products in 1912 in Calcutta, wheat in Hapur
in 1913, bullion in Bombay in 1920. However, in 1939, the Option
trading in cotton was banned by the government of Bombay to restrict
the speculative activity in the cotton market. in subsequent years,
forward trading in various commodities like oilseeds, food grains,
vegetable oil, sugar cloth were also prohibited.
Indias commodity exchanges have come a long way since their
opening up in the early twenty frst century. In India, three national level
exchanges namely Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCEX), National
Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and National Multi
Commodity Exchanges are operating to cater to the needs of Indian
investors. Apart from these national level exchanges, nearly 20 regional
exchanges are in operation, to deal with specifed commodities in that
region.
Present Scenario
Over the last 20 years, the prices of commodities have generally
been bearish. Even as recently as 2002-03, the outlook on the recovery
in the global economy and world trade was generally subdued due to
depressed equity markets, weakening US dollar and geopolitical
concerns. Commodity market across the world was impacted by these
developments. However, of late, the scenario has completely changed as
the global economy recovered from its slump aided by the boom in the
US markets and increased demand from developing economies like India
and China. In the global investment market, the newly hailed, attractive,
asset class is commodities. So, investors are being attracted to this new
booming market for investment.
Meaning of commodity derivative market
FCRA Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952 defnes goods as
every kind of movable property other than actionable claims, money and
securities. Futures trading is organized in such goods or commodities
as are permitted by the Central Government. At present, all goods and
products of agricultural (including plantation), mineral and fossil origin
are allowed for futures trading under the auspices of the commodity
exchanges recognized under the FCRA.
A commodity derivative is a contract which derives its value from
an underlying commodity. The main purpose of future market is to
provide a mechanism for successfully managing the price risks
associated with commodities. Future market provides a platform for
buyer and seller to trade in a huge number of diverse commodities such
as agriculture products, metals and energy. These markets are not only
meant for hedgers, speculators and arbitrages, but also for retail
investors who want to trade in booming commodity market.
Commodity derivatives market trade contracts for which the
underlying asset is commodity. It can be an agricultural commodity like
wheat, soybeans, rapeseed, cotton, etc or precious metals like gold, silver,
etc.
Diference between Commodity and Financial derivatives
The basic concept of a derivative contract remains the same
whether the underlying happens to be a commodity or a fnancial asset.
However there are some features which are very peculiar to commodity
derivative markets. In the case of fnancial derivatives, most of these
contracts are cash settled. Even in the case of physical settlement,
fnancial assets are not bulky and do not need special facility for storage.
Due to the bulky nature of the underlying assets, physical settlement in
commodity derivatives creates the need for warehousing. Similarly, the
concept of varying quality of asset does not really exist as far as fnancial
underlings are concerned. However in the case of commodities, the
quality of the asset underlying a contract can vary at times.
Why are Commodity Derivatives Required
India is among the top-5 producers of most of the commodities, in
addition to being a major consumer of bullion and energy products.
Agriculture contributes about 22% to the GDP of the Indian economy. It
employees around 57% of the labor force on a total of 163 million
hectares of land. Agriculture sector is an important factor in achieving a
GDP growth of 8-10%. All this indicates that India can be promoted as a
major center for trading of commodity derivatives.
It is unfortunate that the policies of FMC during the most of 1950s
to 1980s suppressed the very markets it was supposed to encourage and
nurture to grow with times. It was a mistake other emerging economies
of the world would want to avoid. However, it is not in India alone that
derivatives were suspected of creating too much speculation that would
be to the detriment of the healthy growth of the markets and the farmers.
Such suspicions might normally arise due to a misunderstanding of the
characteristics and role of derivative product.
It is important to understand why commodity derivatives are
required and the role they can play in risk management. It is common
knowledge that prices of commodities, metals, shares and currencies
fuctuate over time. The possibility of adverse price changes in future
creates risk for businesses. Derivatives are used to reduce or eliminate
price risk arising from unforeseen price changes. A derivative is a
fnancial contract whose price depends on, or is derived from, the price
of another asset.
Spread trade in commodities
In Future trading, a spread trade refers to the act of buying one
commodity or Futures contract and selling a related one, in an attempt to
proft from the price diference between the two. Basically, it is an act of
entering long (buying) as well as short (selling) position simultaneously
in an attempt to make proft.
There can be three types of spread one can enter in Commodity
Derivative Market.
1. A spread can be established between diferent months of the same
commodity (called an inter delivery spread).
2. Between the same related commodities, usually for the same
month (inter commodity spread).
3. Between the same or related commodities traded on two diferent
exchanges (inter market spread).
Spread trading can be done at the market price or at desired diference
level between the commodities. For example, Buy one contract of
February of December Gold and at the same time sell one contract of
February Gold when the February Gold contract is 100 points higher
than the December contract.
In this case frst and foremost thing that need to be observed is the
liquidity present in both the contracts. The benefts that can be arrived
from entering in spread trading is the lower margin requirement, because
these strategies normally carry less risk. Spreads are usually less volatile
and prices move less quickly, which can be good for beginners who may
be intimated by the speed and price fuctuations of a single outright
trade in Future Market.
Myths on commodities trading
In recent past, we notice that the regulators banned trading in few
commodities, thereby creating misconception in the minds of traders
about the commodities market. Hence, the following is an attempt to
demystify the common myths prevailing among the investors.
1) Commodity market is too complex to understand:
Commodities markets are not complex as the product dealt in are natural
and therefore cannot be artifcially manipulated. The demand and supply
also depends upon economic factors. It is easier to understand
commodities as in our daily life we are familiar with commodities, we
know the ruling prices of these commodities in the market, while in
stocks, we are not fully aware about internal afairs of the company.
2) Only farmers are interested In trading and also only they
should be trading:
It is in correct to say that farmers would use this market. Actually, the
farmers only use the commodity future prices as a tool to decide which
crop to grow and to what extent and some large formers would use this
market to hedge their risk through an intermediary. These intermediaries
would normally be the same commission agents who help formers to sell
their crop in cash market. Apart from farmer, others related to
commodity trading either directly or indirectly can participate in trading
to hedge their price risk.
3) Commodity markets are operating to serve the needs of
speculators and not of the real investors:
Commodities markets existence serves for price discovery and price
risk management. Through this platform everybody related to
commodities can fnd better price discovery mechanism. Producers and
consumers of the commodity can minimize their price risk by way of
hedging. However, speculators constitute only one dimension the market.
they can work only because someone is hedging their risk in the market.
this market provides the price signals to producers as well as consumers
to meet their long term requirement. These price signals are not available
to users unless there is a commodity futures exchange and in its
absence, the markets have price fuctuations. Price stabilization comes
from the price discovery process when market participants react
positively to the information available to decide a price.
4) Large membership is required to run commodity exchanges:
It is a misconception that to be a successful commodity exchange it
needs large number of members. Success of any commodity exchange
depends upon good and well-spread brokerage houses and there
penetration levels. Once the commodity futures trading is well
established, then the services will be broadened to many intermediaries
with separate trading rights and have few members with separate trading
rights and have few members with clearing rights like banks.
5) Commodities are only cash settled contracts:
Unlike equity market, commodities traded through exchanges are
deliverable on expiry. To facilitate smooth delivery process, the Forward
Markets Commission (FMC) has categorized the delivery mechanism into
three dimensions viz., compulsory delivery contracts, sellers option
contracts. On expiry of the contracts, the open positions will be either
settled by delivery or cash depending upon sellers and buyers. Since the
delivery process takes long time to materialize and one has to keep track
of all the delivery process transactions, nobody wants to take burden of
delivery handling process.
Note:
Compulsory delivery option- it is an option where on the expiry of
contract of a particular commodity, all the open outstanding positions
are closed out by way of delivery. Heavy penalties are levied in case of
default in delivery.
Seller option it is an option where the sellers has right to deliver the
particular commodity on the expiry of the contract. In this option seller
has to give his intention 5 working days prior to the expiry of the
contract. The client who has not delivery intention and having open
position at the expiry of the contract has to bear a stipulated penalty.
Both Option/Intention Matching in both the option contract the
delivery happens only case of where the intention from buyer as well as
seller received for a prescribed commodity to the extent of matched
quantity. These contracts are generally cash selected and there is no
penalty for open position.
6) The quality of produce stored in godown is guaranteed by
depository/warehouse:
Quality of produce is stored in exchange designated warehouse is not
guaranteed by anyone until the standards in warehousing management
improve to ensure preservation of the quality of goods stored. If the
quality is not assured no beneft accrues to the user. Therefore, the
exchange should provide a system, whereby the seller must ensure
quality certifcation before tendering delivery and the buyer must have
option to recheck the at the time of collecting delivery and in case of any
discrepancies compare to the contract specifcations, they should have
an option to reject it. Worldwide no demat delivery is operational in
commodity.
7) Commodity future markets are more risky and so it is not
advisable to trade in commodities:
While scrip price can go down even by 30-40 percent in a single trading
session, it cannot happen in commodity futures price is based on the
intrinsic value of the commodity. For instance, a scrip future can go
down from Rs.4000 to Rs.2800 in a trading session, but Gold Feb 2004
contract would normally not come down from Rs.10300 to Rs.8400 in a
single trading session, because the inherent value of the gold would not
fall so drastically. Therefore it would volatile than stocks.
What can commodity market ofer?
If you are an investor, commodities futures represent a good form of
investment because of the following reasons..
High Leverage The margins in the commodity futures market are
less than the F&O section of the equity market.
Less Manipulations - Commodities markets, as they are governed
by international price movements are less prone to rigging or price
manipulations.
Diversifcation The returns from commodities market are free
from the direct infuence of the equity and debt market, which means
that they are capable of being used as efective hedging instruments
providing better diversifcation. If you are an importer or an exporter,
commodities futures can help you in the following ways
Hedge against price fuctuations Wide fuctuations in the
prices of import or export products can directly afect your bottom-line as
the price at which you import/export is fxed before-hand. Commodity
futures help you to procure or sell the commodities at a price decided
months before the actual transaction, thereby ironing out any change in
prices that happen subsequently.
If you are a producer of a commodity, futures can help you as follows:
Lock-in the price for your produce If you are a farmer, there is
every chance that the price of your produce may come down drastically
at the time of harvest. By taking positions in commodity futures you can
efectively lock-in the price at which you wish to sell your produce
Assured demand Any glut in the market can make you wait
unendingly for a buyer. Selling commodity futures contract can give you
assured demand at the time of harvest. If you are a large scale consumer
of a product, here is how this market can help you.
Control your cost If you are an industrialist, the raw material
cost dictates the fnal price of your output. Any sudden rise in the price
of raw materials can compel you to pass on the hike to your customers
and make your products unattractive in the market. By buying
commodity futures, you can fx the price of your raw material.
Ensure continuous supply Any shortfall in the supply of raw
materials can stall your production and make you default on your sale
obligations. You can avoid this risk by buying a commodity futures
contract by which you are assured of supply of a fxed quantity of
materials at a pre-decided price at the appointed time.
Research Methodology
TOPIC:
Study of Commodity Market with Special Reference to
Gold. at KARVY Finapolis Belgaum for fulfllment of requirement of
MBA IVth semester in Institute of Management Education and research.
It was an opportunity to learn the practical aspects of the frm.
OBJECTIVES:
To study the mechanism of commodity market.
To study the spot gold market.
To study whether the goldsmiths of Belgaum city aware of
commodity market and their perception.
To analyses the impact of spot gold market on future gold
market.
To study the factors such as economic factors of US, world
political and other factors afect on future market.
SAMPLE SIZE:
The sample size is consisting of goldsmiths and gold traders
of Belgaum city. 100 random sample sizes have taken to identify the
awareness level of gold commodity market in Belgaum city and to know
the spot gold market.
SAMPLE TYPE:
Simple random sampling is adopted to select respondent.
SAMPLE AREA:
Belgaum City
DURATION OF PROJECT:
1
st
Phase - December to January
2
nd
Phase - January to April (weekly two days)
TOOL USED FOR ANALYSES:
1. Graphical Representation of Analysis:
a.Pie charts
b.Line Chart
2. SPSS
3. Correlation coefcient: It measures the intensity or the
magnitude of linear relationship between two variables.

NXY-(X) (Y)
Correlation(r) =
[NX
2
(X)
2
]
1/2
[NY
2
(Y)
2
]
1/2
Probability Error: It is an old measure of testing the reliability of an
observed value of correlation coefcient in so far as it depends upon the
condition of the random sampling.
Probable Error = 0.6745* (1-r
2
)
n
Rules:
If, PE *6 > r then correlation is not signifcant.
If, PE < r then correlation is signifcant.
In other situation, nothing can be concluding with certainty.
DATA COLLECTION APPROACH:
Primary data is important data for successful research. It has
collected through questionnaire and personal discussion with brokers
and gold traders. And also secondary data which act like key for
successful research is collected from MCX, Gold World website and
articles in newspapers such as Business Line, Economic Standards. Spot
prices were collected from business line news paper and confrm it from
gold smith and future prices were collected from MCX.
SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION:
Primary and secondary data are collected from following sources
Primary Data-
Questionnaire
Observation and personal discussion with gold traders.
Secondary data-
Information collected from diferent websites likes Gold World,
MCX etc.
From various text books, journals, magazines, news papers and
booklets from company.
LIMITATION OF THE STUDY:
Spot prices are varying from shop to shop.
Commission has not included spot prices of the commodity.
Study of awareness and perception of the investor is only based on
sample size.
The study of awareness is limited to Belgaum city.
INDIAN COMMODITY FUTURES MARKET
India has a long history of commodity futures market, extending
over 125 years. Still, such trading was interrupted suddenly since the
mid seventies in the fond hope of ushering in an elusive socialistic
pattern of society. As the country embarked on economic liberalization
policies and signed the GATT agreement in the early nineties, the
government realized the need for futures trading to strengthen the
competitiveness of Indian agriculture and the commodity trade and
industry. Futures trading began to be permitted in several commodities,
and the ushering in of the 21
st
century saw the emergence of new
National Commodity Exchanges with countrywide reach for trading in
almost all primary commodities and their products.
There have been over 20 exchanges existing for commodities all
over the country. However these exchanges are commodity specifc and
have a strong regional focus. The Government, in order to make the
commodities market more transparent and efcient, accorded approval
for setting up of national level multi commodity exchanges. Accordingly
two widest exchanges are there which deal in a wide variety of
commodities and which allow nation-wide trading. They are:
1) National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX)
2) Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX)
3) National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCX)
1) National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX):
NCDEX is a public limited company incorporated on April 23, 2003
under the Companies Act, 1956. NCDEX is a technology driven
commodity exchange with an independent Board of Directors and
professionals not having any vested interest in commodity markets. It is
committed to provide a world-class commodity exchange platform for
market participants to trade in a wide spectrum of commodity derivatives
driven by best global practices, professionalism and transparency.
Forward Market Commission regulates NCDEX in respect of
futures trading in commodities. Besides, NCDEX is subjected to various
laws of the land like the Companies Act, Stamp Act, Contracts Act,
Forward Commission (Regulation) Act and various other legislations,
which impinge on its working. NCDEX is located in Mumbai and to start
with would ofer facilities in about 40 cities throughout India. The reach
will gradually be expanded to other cities.
2) Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX):
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX), is an Exchange
with a mandate for setting up a nationwide, online multi-commodity
marketplace, ofering unlimited growth opportunities to commodities
market participants. As a true neutral market, MCX has taken several
initiatives to usher in a new-generation commodities futures market in
the process, become the country's premier Exchange. MCX has started
operations from November 10, 2003.
Statutory framework for regulating commodity futures
Commodity futures contracts and the commodity exchanges
organizing trading in such contracts are regulated by the Government of
India under the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952 (FCRA), and
the Rules framed there under. The nodal agency for such regulation is
the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), situated at Mumbai, which
functions under the aegis of the Ministry of Consumer Afairs, Food &
Public Distribution of the Central Government.
Forward Markets Commission (FMC)

Forward Markets Commission (FMC) headquartered at Mumbai is
a regulatory authority, which is overseen by the Ministry of Consumer
Afairs and Public Distribution, Govt. of India. It is a statutory body set
up in 1953 under the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952.
"The Act Provides that the Commission shall consist of not less
then two but not exceeding four members appointed by the Central
Government out of them being nominated by the Central Government to
be the Chairman thereof. Currently Commission comprises three
members among whom Dr. Kewal Ram, IES, is acting as Chairman and
Smt. Padma Swaminathan, CSS and Dr. (Smt.) Jayashree Gupta, CSS,
are the Members of the Commission."
The functions of the Forward Markets Commission are as follows:
To advise the Central Government in respect of the recognition or
the withdrawal of recognition from any association or in respect of
any other matter arising out of the administration of the Forward
Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952.
To keep forward markets under observation and to take such
action in relation to them, as it may consider necessary, in exercise
of the powers assigned to it by or under the Act.
To collect and whenever the Commission thinks it necessary, to
publish information regarding the trading conditions in respect of
goods to which any of the provisions of the act is made applicable,
including information regarding supply, demand and prices, and to
submit to the Central Government, periodical reports on the
working of forward markets relating to such goods;
To make recommendations generally with a view to improving the
organization and working of forward markets;
To undertake the inspection of the accounts and other documents
of any recognized association or registered association or any
member of such association whenever it considerers it necessary.
Commodities selected in Phase I
Bullion
Gold
Silver
AFGRI commodities
Soya bean
Soya oil
Rapeseed/Mustard
Seed Rapeseed/
Mustard Seed Oil
Crude Palm oil
RBD Palmolein
0 Commodities introduced in Phase II
Rubber
Jute
Pepper
Chana (Gram)
Guar
Wheat
COMMODITY TRADING CONTRACTS
All the commodities are not suitable for futures trading & for being
suitable for futures trading the market for commodity should be
competitive, i.e., there should be large demand for and supply of the
commodity no individual or group of persons acting in concert should be
in a position to infuence the demand or supply, and consequently the
price substantially. There should be fuctuations in price. The commodity
should have long shelf life and be capable of standardization and
gradation.
A commodity futures contract is essentially a fnancial
instrument. Following the absence of futures trading in commodities for
nearly four decades, the new generation of commodity producers,
processors, market functionaries, fnancial organizations, broking
agencies and investors at large are, unfortunately, unaware at present of
the economic utility, the operational techniques and the fnancial
advantages of such trading. Commodity future market involves
particularly diferent types of forward contracts.
Forward contracts
FCRA defnes forward contract as "a contract for the delivery of
goods and which not a ready delivery contract is".
All contracts in commodities providing for delivery of goods and/or
payment of price after 11 days from the date of the contract are "forward"
contracts. Forward contracts are of three types
1) Specifc Delivery & Ready Delivery Contracts
2) Futures Contracts
3) Option Contracts
Specifc Delivery/Ready Delivery contracts:
Specifc delivery contracts provide for the actual delivery of specifc
quantities and types of goods during a specifed future period, and in
which the names of both the buyer and the seller are mentioned.
Under the Act, a ready delivery contract is one, which provides for
the delivery of goods and the payment of price therefore, either
immediately or within such period not exceeding 11 days after the date of
the contract, subject to such conditions as may be prescribed by the
Central Government. Already delivery contract is required by law to be
fulflled by giving and taking the physical delivery of goods. In market
parlance, the ready delivery contracts are commonly known as "spot" or
"cash" contracts.
Futures Contract:
A commodity futures contract is essentially a fnancial instrument.
Following the absence of futures trading in commodities for nearly four
decades, the new generation of commodity producers, processors, market
functionaries, fnancial organizations, broking agencies and investors at
large are, unfortunately, unaware at present of the economic utility, the
operational techniques and the fnancial advantages of such trading.
A futures contract is a legally binding agreement between two
parties to buy or sell in the future, on a designated exchange, a specifc
quantity of a commodity at a specifc price. The buyer and seller of a
futures contract agree now on a price for a product to be delivered, or
paid, for at a set time in the future, known as the "settlement date."
Although actual delivery of the commodity can take place in fulfllment of
the contract, most futures contracts are actually closed out or "ofset"
prior to delivery.
A commodity futures contract is a tradable standardized contract,
the terms of which are set in advance by the commodity exchange
organizing trading in it.
The futures contract is for a specifed variety of a commodity,
known as the "basis, though quite a few other similar varieties, both
inferior and superior, are allowed to be deliverable or tender-able for
delivery against the specifed futures contract.
The parties to the contract are required to negotiate only the
quantity to be bought and sold, and the price. The Exchange prescribes
everything else. Because of the standardized nature of the futures
contract, it can be traded with ease at a moments notice.
Option Contract:
An option on a commodity futures contract is a legally binding
agreement between two parties that gives the buyer, who pays a market
determined price known as a "premium," the right (but not the
obligation), within a specifc time period, to exercise his option. Exercise
of the option will result in the person being deemed to have entered into
a futures contract at a specifed price known as the "strike price." In
some cases, an option may confer the right to buy or sell the underlying
asset directly, and these options are known as options on the physical
asset.
Commodity future trading contracts rarely are for the actual or
physical delivery allowed to be settled otherwise than by issuing or giving
deliveries. Therefore, speculators use these futures contracts to beneft
from changes in prices and are hardly interested in either taking or
receiving deliveries of goods.
FUTURE MARKET MECHANISMS
1) Price Discovery through Future Market:
In an active futures market, the demand for information by traders
is enormous. Futures exchanges tend to become collection centers for
statistics on supplies, transportation, storage, purchases, exports,
imports, currency values, interest rates, and other pertinent information.
These data, which are compiled and distributed throughout the exchange
community on a continuous basis, are immediately refected in the
trading pits as traders digest the new information and adjust their bids
and ofers accordingly. As a result of active buying and selling of futures
contracts, the market determines the best estimate of today and
tomorrow's prices for the underlying commodity. In efect, prices are
discovered at futures exchanges. Prices determined via this open and
competitive process are considered to be accurate refections of the
supply and demand for a commodity, and for this reason they are widely
used as today's best estimate of tomorrow's cash market prices for a
standardized quantity of a commodity.
Price discovery is the process of arriving at a fgure at which one
person will buy and another will sell a futures contract for a specifc
expiration date. In an active futures market, the process of price
discovery continues from the market's opening until its close. Futures
contracts are standardized as to quantity, quality, and location so buyers
and sellers only bargain over price. Because of this standardization,
commercial interests are better able to compute local cash prices. In
many commodities, futures prices have earned a role as key reference
prices for those who produce, process, and merchandise the commodity.
2) Transferring Risk: Hedging through future market
Commodity production and marketing involve sizable price risks,
and risk represents a cost that afects the value of a commodity. While
there is no way to eliminate uncertainty, futures markets provide a
competitive way for commodity producers, merchandisers, processors,
and others who may own the actual commodity to transfer some price
risk to speculators who will willingly assume such risk in hopes of
making a proft.
The process of hedging involves the concurrent use of both cash
and futures markets. Since futures and cash prices tend to move
together (that is, parallel to each other), and at contract expiration
converge to one price, it is possible for a cotton merchant, for example, to
hedge an unsold inventory of cotton with a sale of an equivalent amount
of futures contracts. Since the merchant owns the commodity, he would
have a loss if prices fell. To hedge, the merchant would sell futures
contracts. Now if prices drop, the cash market loss will be at least
partially ofset by a gain on the futures contract. When the merchant
sells his inventory at the lower cash market price, he will simultaneously
lift his hedge by buying back his futures contracts at the lower price. The
gain on his futures contracts should roughly equal the merchant's loss in
the cash market.
Here are three examples of how hedging helps the cash market
work better:
1)Hedging stretches the marketing period. For instance, a livestock
feeder does not have to wait until his cattle are ready to market
before he can sell them. The futures market permits him to sell
futures contracts to establish the approximate sale price at any
time between the time he buys his calves for feeding and the time
the fed cattle are ready to market, some four to six months later.
He can take advantage of good prices even though the cattle are
not ready for market.
2)Hedging protects inventory values. A merchandiser with a large,
unsold inventory can sell futures contracts that will protect the
value of the inventory, even if the price of the commodity drops.
3)Hedging permits forward pricing of products. A jewelry
manufacturer can determine the cost for gold, silver or platinum by
buying a futures contract, translate that to a price for the fnished
products, and make forward sales to stores at frm prices. Having
made the forward sales, the manufacturer can use its capital to
acquire only as much gold, silver, or platinum as may be needed to
make the products that will fll its orders.
These are just a few ways that commodity owners use futures
markets. It requires skill and knowledge acquired that comes only by
study and experience.
PARTICIPANTS IN FUTURES MARKET & TRADING
PROCEDURE
The Futures market participants comprise of:
Farmers
Traders
Producers
Processors
Exporters
Importers
Industries associated with commodities.
The futures market is used for hedging the price risk and for
trading or arbitrage. Brokers of all commodity exchanges, who are located
all across the country, serve the futures market users directly through
their own branch ofces' network or through the network of their
franchisees or sub-brokers.
Procedure for Individual investor to start trading in Commodity
Futures Market can be as follows:

Selection of Broker:
A trustworthy, reliable, efcient, efective & innovative broker,
having membership to any of the Exchange like MCX / NCDEX etc.
would be in Investors interest. Broker should be such that recognizes
investors needs & aspirations & work as a dedicated team to deliver
highly efective & customized solutions to investors risk management
needs.
Information about Self:
After selecting a broker, investor will be asked to provide
information that is personal & fnancial. A member client agreement
should be signed between the broker & investor. Investor should give
photographs, bank details & should possess normal DMAT Account or
broker opens that account for him/her. If trading is intended with
delivery of commodities then Commodity DMAT Account is been opened.
Depositing the Margin:
In order to trade futures contracts, investor has to deposit margins
in cash with broker. There are two types of margins, namely; initial
margin & mark to market margin.
i) Initial Margin-
Initial Margin is set by the exchanges on basis of volatility in the
particular commodity & is a percentage of the contract.
ii) Mark to market Margin-
At the end of the day, the contract is marked to market; meaning
traders account is credited or debited based on the proft/ loss made
during the session. On this proft or loss there broker can charge margin
that is nothing but mark to market margin.
Intraday Trading:
Then as per individual investors wish he can buy or sell
commodities online. Just he has to specify which commodity & what
price is he going to buy or sell. Electronic terminals are used for this
trading at various broking ofces that provides the same information
countrywide. This trading process is called as, Intraday Trading.
Beneft of this online trading is that it provides a secure,
transparent, fast and user-friendly system. It leads to better price
discovery of commodities like Bullion, Metals and Agro products by
bringing large number of Buyers and Sellers on a common National and
International platform.
Clearing Trades on Commodity Exchange
All trades on Commodity Exchange are supported by an initial
margin. At the End-of day Commodity Exchange does mark-to-market of
all the open positions. This activity results into fnal position of all
members in respect to booked losses or losses on open positions.
Members make the shortfalls good by way of pay-ins to Commodity
Exchange by next day and the members in proft on such positions are
given the necessary credits. These payments are processed electronically
through a countrywide network of clearing banks.
Settlement of the Contract and Delivery
A contract has a life cycle of two months. At Commodity Exchange,
5 days before the expiry of a contract, the contract enters into a tender
period. At the start of the tender period, both the parties must state their
intentions to give or receive delivery, based on which the parties are
supposed to act or bear the penal charges for any failure in doing so.
Those who do not express their intention to give or receive delivery at the
beginning of tender period are required to square-up their open positions
before the expiry of the contract. In case they do not their positions are
closed out at 'due date rate'. The links to the physical market through the
delivery process ensures maintenance of uniformity between spot and
futures prices.
Tendering Delivery to a Buyer by Exchange Seller
Sellers intimate the exchange at the beginning of the tender period
and get the delivery quality certifed from empanelled quality certifcation
agencies. They also submit the documents to the Exchange with the
details of the warehouse within the city, chosen as a delivery center.
Sellers are free to use any warehouse, as they are responsible for
the goods until the buyer picks up the delivery, which is a practice
followed in the commodities market globally.
Seller would receive the money from the exchange against the
goods delivered, which happens when the buyer has confrmed its
satisfaction over quality and picked up the deliveries within stipulated
time.
Receiving Delivery of Commodities by Buyer
Buyers intending to take delivery will receive it, if there are sellers
willing warehouse at the designated delivery centers on the designated
delivery days.
There are commission agents who help the brokers with handling
of the delivery, logistic support, and associated quality certifcation
through to give delivery. The Buyer will have to make the payment within
three days after the delivery is allotted. The buyer will take actual
delivery from the empanelled agencies and associated billings due to tax
implications. This support is required as the buyer may be in a diferent
city than the place where the delivery is being received.
Utility of Physical Delivery of Commodity to Client of Buyer
The client of a buyer may use this delivery for his
consumption in the industry, or for exports, or he may sell in the spot
market or may sell in futures market in the subsequent contract, if he is
a regular trader. Generally, the commodities available in the physical
form are consumed by the industry and, rarely, commodities, are stored
in the warehouse for a longer period.
Percentage of Delivery in the Futures Market
Though, Exchanges have specifed the deliverable grades in the
contract specifcations, which are notifed before commencement of
trading in a contract. The seller is required to submit the quality
certifcation issued by empanelled quality certifcation agencies, like,
SGS, Geo Chem. etc. Thus, quality of a commodity is ensured, the
percentage is delivery in such market is fairly low. Generally, the futures
markets all over the world are used for hedging where actual delivery
percentage is about 1% any user in the commodities ecosystem unlike
the physical spot or forward market does not use these markets for
regular consumption.
LIMITATIONS OF COMMODITY FUTURE MARKET
Commodity market is very difcult to predict. Commodity prices
depend upon region, monsoon, transportation cost, demand-
supply theory, import/ export policies & Global market trends. So
commodity market experience volatility that cannot be predicted
easily.
Without knowing the spot market for commodities it is very
difcult to play with Future market. In capital market it depends
upon Companies performance, decisions, long run plans, mergers,
etc. there are defnite regions to move up & down in the market,
but in the case of Commodity market there are so many regions for
the market movement, it is like a game of luck to the investor.
Customer has to deposit the margin amount that is based on
volatility of commodity plus brokerage that is deducted from total
losses made. So if at all there is a loss, the total loss amount will
be very huge. In this aspect it is very risky market.
Commodity market not yet developed in India so it is less reliable.
Commodity market gives high return but with multiplier of high
risk.
Gold commodity Future Market
Introduction
Gold is a unique asset based on few basic characteristics. First, it
is primarily a monetary asset, and partly a commodity. As much as two
thirds of golds total accumulated holdings relate to store of value
considerations. Holdings in this category include the central bank
reserves, private investments, and high-cartage jewelry bought primarily
in developing countries as a vehicle for savings. Thus, gold is primarily a
monetary asset. Less than one third of golds total accumulated holdings
can be considered a commodity, the jewelry bought in Western markets
for adornment, and gold used in industry.
The distinction between gold and commodities is important. Gold
has maintained its value in after-infation terms over the long run, while
commodities have declined.
Some analysts like to think of gold as a currency without a
country. It is an internationally recognized asset that is not dependent
upon any governments promise to pay. This is an important feature
when comparing gold to conventional diversifers like T-bills or bonds,
which unlike gold, do have counter-party risk.
Gold in Indian Scenario:
Gold is valued in India as a savings and investment vehicle and is
the second preferred investment behind bank deposits. India is the
worlds largest consumer of gold in jewelry (much of which is purchased
as investment). The hoarding tendency is well ingrained in Indian society,
not least because inheritance laws in the middle of the twentieth century
lent a great desirability to anonymity. Indian people are renowned for
saving for the future and the fnancial savings ratio is strong, with a ratio
of fnancial assets-to-GDP of 93%.
Golds circulates within the system and roughly 30% of gold
jewelry fabrication is from recycled pieces. India is typically also the
largest purchaser of coins and bars for investment (>80tpa), although last
year it had to concede frst place to Japan in the wake of the heavy
buying in the frst quarter due to fears for the stability of the Japanese
banking system. In 1998-2001 inclusive, annual Indian demand for gold
in jewelry exceeded 600 tons; in 2002, however, due to rising and volatile
prices and a poor monsoon season, this dropped back to 490 tons, and
coin and bar demand dropped to 67 tons. Indian jewelry of take is
sensitive to price increases and even more so to volatility, although this
decline in tonnage since 1998 is also due in part to increasing
competition from white and brown goods and alternative investment
vehicles, but is also a refection of the increase in price. The Indian
brides Streedhan, the wealth she takes with her when she marries and
which remains hers, is still gold, however (thus giving gold an important
role in the empowerment of women in India).
The distinction between gold and commodities is important. Gold
has maintained its value in after-infation terms over the long run, while
commodities have declined.
Some analysts like to think of gold as a currency without a
country. It is an internationally recognized asset that is not dependent
upon any governments promise to pay. This is an important feature
when comparing gold to conventional diversifers like T-bills or bonds,
which unlike gold, do have counter-party risk.
World Markets
Today's gold market is a round-the-world, round-the-clock
business, played out largely on dealers' trading screens. The core of the
business, however, remains in the key markets of London, as the great
clearing house, New York as the home of futures trading, Zurich as
physical turntable, Istanbul, Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong as
doorways to important consuming regions and Tokyo where the
Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) sets the mood of Japan. Even Paris still
has a small market, a reminder of the days when the French were great
hoarders, while Mumbai has increasing importance under India's
liberalized gold regime that permits ofcial imports through local
markets.

Gold an Independent Asset
Its not difcult to understand why the gold price moves
independently from the economic cycle when one considers the diversity
of its demand and supply base, the ultimate determinants of price
movements.
There are three sources of gold supply: mine production, ofcial
sector sales and scrap or recycled gold. Mine production is by far the
largest element, accounting for 70% of total supply last year. Changes in
annual mine supply bear no relation to changes in US or even global
GDP growth. The upward trend in mine production that was underway in
the late 1980s was not arrested by 1990 recession (the US economy
sufered an outright contraction, while world GDP growth slowed to 1.6%
from 2.9% the previous year). Nor was the downtrend in mining output
that began in 2001 reversed by the sharp acceleration in world growth.
Mine production is infuenced by very specifc factors, such as the
level of exploration spending, the success or otherwise in discovering new
gold deposits and the cost of extraction (some new discoveries may not be
economically viable). Lead times in gold mining are often very long. It can
take years to re-open a closed mine, let alone fnd and mine new
reserves.
The decision to build a mine shaft (and often an entire
infrastructure) is a long term one that will often see business cycles
comes and goes. Central bank decisions to buy or sell gold (they remain
net sellers) are also usually strategic in nature, rather than reactive to
the economic cycle. The decision to buy or sell gold is often made years
in advance and then carried out over a period of years. In Switzerland,
for example, the proposition to sell gold (the frst gold sales programmed)
was frst recommended by a group of experts in 1997. However, the
actual sales programmed did not commence until May 2000, with the
sales then taking place over a period of fve years.
Scrap supply is infuenced by many factors, perhaps the most
important being price and price volatility, but recessions and periods of
economic distress have also had an impact. The most dramatic example
is when Korea was pushed into recession during the 1998 Asian
currency crisis; its scrap supply increased by almost 200 tonnes as the
government bought gold from the local populace in exchange for won-
denominated bonds. It then sold the gold on the international market in
order to raise the dollars necessary to avoid defaulting on its external
debt.
Similarly, in Indonesia the 1998 recession saw scrap supply
increase by 72 tonnes in the frst quarter of the year, in this instance
purely for independent reasons rather than at the behest of the
government.
Turning to demand
Conventional wisdom argues that recessions are bad for
commodity prices. The reasoning goes that as consumer and business
confdence falls, demand for goods and services is cut back and hence
the materials used in the production of those goods or in the provision of
services (many of which are commodities) declines, thereby depressing
their price.
The argument is logical. However, a few points are worth bearing in
mind with respect to gold. Demand for gold as an intermediate good is
relatively small in comparison to many other commodities. Last year, just
14% of gold demand came from the industrial sector (mainly electronics).
This is in stark contrast to base metals and even other precious metals,
where the vast majority of demand comes from industry. As a result, gold
is much less vulnerable to the vagaries of the economic cycle. That said,
demand for gold in electronics is likely to fall if the economy falls into
recession as consumer spending on non-essential electronics goods
declines. A US recession would undoubtedly have negative implications
for gold jewelry demand in America, as consumer spending slows.
However, this negative implication could be at least partially ofset by the
higher share of gold jewelry in the retail market that gold jewelry has
enjoyed in recent years. Moreover, gold is much less vulnerable than
other jewelry materials, such as diamonds or platinum, to a US recession
as far more demand for gold comes from outside of the US 70% of
diamond jewelry demand comes from the US market, compared with just
10% for gold.
India is in fact the single largest consumer of gold jewellery in the
world in tonnage terms. Last year, Indian households bought 558 tonnes
of gold jewelry, more than double their US counterparts (Chart 7).
Chinese consumers rank second, having bought 331 tonnes. US
consumers are third in tonnage terms, although US demand remains
highest in retail value terms due to its higher trade margins. The extent
to which worldwide gold jewelry demand sufers from a US recession will
depend partly on the spill-over efects to other countries. If proponents of
decoupling prove to be correct (they argue that emerging market
economies are now strong enough domestically to withstand a US
slowdown) then worldwide jewelry demand need not fare badly.
The fnal source of demand comes from investors. Investors buy
gold for many reasons. Chief among these are golds infation and dollar-
hedging properties, both of which have been proven over long periods of
time. How a recession afects investment demand would depend, in part,
on how infation and the dollar react.
The brewing recession has so far been positive for gold on both
fronts. The dollar has continued its downward trajectory, while infation
has (unusually) headed higher. US consumer prices increased at an
annual rate of 4.0% in February this year, up from 2.4% just a year
earlier. If these trends continue, investment demand for gold as an
infation and dollar hedge is likely to remain strong. And if the recession
deepens concerns over the health of the US banking sector, demand for
gold as a safe haven asset is also likely to remain robust.
In summary, statistical analysis suggests there is no relationship
between changes in US GDP growth and changes in the gold price. This
refects golds unique and diverse demand and supply base, which as for
any freely-traded good ultimately determine the price. Consequently, a
US recession does not have negative implications for the gold price. The
only element of demand likely to be afected by a recession is investment
demand, but that in turn will depend on the type of recession. So far,
the brewing recession has been positive for gold, as it has been
accompanied by a rise in infation and a falling dollar, which has boosted
demand for gold as a dollar and infation hedge.
Largest Gold Belts:
The famous Witwatersrand in South Africa - the world's largest
gold belt.
The Tian Shan Gold Belt - the second largest belt in the world.
Largest Gold Producing Country in the World
South Africa
Australia
United States
Important world market:
London is the biggest and the oldest gold market in the world.
Mumbai is Indias liberalized gold regime.
New York is the home of gold future trading.
Istanbul, Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong are doorways to
important consuming regions.
What makes Gold Special?
Timeless and Very Timely Investment: For thousands of years, gold
has been prized for its rarity, its beauty, and above all, for its unique
characteristics as a store of value. Nations may rise and fall, currencies
come and go, but gold endures. In todays uncertain climate, many
investors turn to gold because it is an important and secure asset that
can be tapped at any time, under virtually any circumstances. But there
is another side to gold that is equally important, and that is its day-to-
day performance as a stabilizing infuence for investment portfolios.
These advantages are currently attracting considerable attention from
fnancial professionals and sophisticated investors worldwide.
Gold is an efective diversifer: Diversifcation helps protect your
portfolio against fuctuations in the value of any one-asset class. Gold is
an ideal diversifer, because the economic forces that determine the price
of gold are diferent from, and in many cases opposed to, the forces that
infuence most fnancial assets.
Gold is the ideal gift: In many cultures, gold serves as a family
treasure or a wealth transfer vehicle that is passed on from generation to
generation. Gold bullion coins make excellent gifts for birthdays,
graduations, weddings, holidays and other occasions. They are
appreciated as much for their intrinsic value as for their mystical appeal
and beauty. And because gold is available in a wide range of sizes and
denominations, you dont need to be wealthy to give the gift of gold.
Gold is highly liquid: Gold can be readily bought or sold 24 hours a
day, in large denominations and at narrow spreads. This cannot be said
of most other investments, including stocks of the worlds largest
corporations. Gold is also more liquid than many alternative assets such
as venture capital, real estate, and timberland. Gold proved to be the
most efective means of raising cash during the 1987 stock market crash,
and again during the 1997/98 Asian debt crisis. So holding a portion of
your portfolio in gold can be invaluable in moments when cash is
essential, whether for margin calls or other needs.
Gold responds when you need it most: Recent independent studies
have revealed that traditional diversifers often fall during times of market
stress or instability. On these occasions, most asset classes (including
traditional diversifers such as bonds and alternative assets) all move
together in the same direction. There is no cushioning efect of a
diversifed portfolio leaving investors disappointed. However, a small
allocation of gold has been proven to signifcantly improve the
consistency of portfolio performance, during both stable and unstable
fnancial periods. Greater consistency of performance leads to a desirable
outcome an investor whose expectations are met.
What makes Gold diferent from other commodities?
The fow demand of commodities is driven primarily by exogenous
variables that are subject to the business cycle, such as GDP or
absorption. Consequently, one would expect that a sudden unanticipated
increase in the demand for a given commodity that is not met by an
immediate increase in supply should, all else being equal, drive the price
of the commodity upwards. However, it is our contention that, in the case
of gold, bufer stocks can be supplied with perfect elasticity. If this
argument holds true, no such upward price pressure will be observed in
the gold market in the presence of a positive demand shock.
The existence of a sophisticated liquid market in gold has, over the
past 15 years, provided a mechanism for gold held by central banks and
other major institutions to come back to the market. Although the
demand for gold as an industrial input or as a fnal product (jewelry)
difers across regions, it is argued that the core driver of the real price of
gold is stock equilibrium rather than fow equilibrium. This is not to say
that exogenous shifts in fow demand will have no infuence at all on the
price of gold, but rather that the large supply of inventory is likely to
dampen any resultant spikes in price. The extent of this to dampening
efect depends on the gestation lag within which liquid inventories can be
converted in industrial inputs. In the gold industry such time lags are
typically very short.
Gold has three crucial attributes that, combined, set it apart from
other commodities: frstly, assayed gold is homogeneous; secondly, gold is
indestructible and fungible; and thirdly, the inventory of aboveground
stocks is astronomically large relative to changes in fow demand. One
consequence of these attributes is a dramatic reduction in gestation lags,
given low search costs and the well-developed leasing market. One would
expect that the time required convert bullion into producer inventory is
short, relative to other commodities which may be less liquid and less
homogenous than gold and may require longer time scales to extract and
be converted into usable producer inventory, making them more
vulnerable to cyclical price volatility. Of course, because of the variability
of demand, the price responsiveness of each commodity will depend in
part on precautionary inventory holding.
Fixing of spot gold prices:
spot price
41 41.0 41.0 41.0
59 59.0 59.0 100.0
100 100.0 100.0
Investors
Daily Trading
Bases/Future Market
Total
Valid
Frequeny !erent Valid !erent
"u#ulative
!erent

Interpretation:

In all 100 sample size 59 respondents are gold smiths. All are
fx the price according to daily bases, which are displays in TV time to
time. In a day in spot market three times price is changes.
s$ot $rie
59.0%
41.0%
Daily Trading Bases/
Investors
Sources Of Gold For The Goldsmiths:
o##odities
54.0%
5.0%
41.0%
&'olesaler
(oal su$$lier
Investors
Interpretation:
Above Pie chart shows that out of 100 sample size, 54% of
respondents get gold from wholesalers, 5% are from local suppliers and
remaining are investors. So most of them get the gold from wholesalers.
41 41.0 41.0 41.0
5 5.0 5.0 4).0
54 54.0 54.0 100.0
100 100.0 100.0
Investors
(oal su$$lier
&'olesaler
Total
Valid
Frequeny !erent Valid !erent
"u#ulative
!erent
To study whether the goldsmiths of Belgaum city
aware of commodity market and their perception.
Where do you prefer to invest?
invest
9 9.0 9.0 9.0
10 10.0 10.0 19.0
49 49.0 49.0 )*.0
+* +*.0 +*.0 9).0
4 4.0 4.0 100.0
100 100.0 100.0
,old
Bank/Fi-ed De$osit
.quity
Mutual Funds
/eal .state
Total
Valid
Frequeny !erent Valid !erent
"u#ulative
!erent
invest
4.0%
+*.0%
49.0%
10.0%
9.0%
/eal .state
Mutual Funds
.quity
Bank/Fi-ed De$osit
,old
Interpretation:
The Graph clearly shows that most of the respondents are interested in
investing in equity (49%) when compared to the other investment
alternatives because they feel investing in equity will provide more
returns to them.
Are you aware about commodity market?
aware
*+ *+.0 *+.0 *+.0
1* 1*.0 1*.0 100.0
100 100.0 100.0
0es
1o
Total
Valid
Frequeny !erent Valid !erent
"u#ulative
!erent
a2are
1*.0%
*+.0%
1o
0es
Interpretation:
The above pie chart describes that 82% of the investors (goldsmiths or
gold traders) are aware about the Commodity Future market and 18% of
them are not aware about Commodity Future Market. So there is a need
to create awareness about the commodity future market and its benefts.
There is a lot of potential is there to create customer and infuence them
to invest in Commodity Future market.
Have you invested in commodity future market?
commodity
13 13.0 13.0 13.0
1) 1).0 1).0 44.0
)3 )3.0 )3.0 100.0
100 100.0 100.0
1ot a2are
0es
1o
Total
Valid
Frequeny !erent Valid !erent
"u#ulative
!erent
o##odity
)3.0%
1).0%
13.0%
1o
0es
1ot a2are
Interpretation:
The pie chart shows that, even though the investors are aware about
commodity future market only 16% of them have actually invested in this
market where as the remaining have not invested because among them
17% are not aware and remaining 67% investors have not invested as
they have a perception that it is risky and they even do not have much
knowledge about trading mechanism.
In future do you want to trade in commodity future
market?
future
1) 1).0 1).0 1).0
)1 )1.0 )1.0 33.0
+4 +4.0 +4.0 100.0
100 100.0 100.0
Investors
0es
1o
Total
Valid
Frequeny !erent Valid !erent
"u#ulative
!erent
5uture
+4.0%
)1.0%
1).0%
1o
0es
Investors
Interpretation:
The above pie chart represents that, the investors who have not yet
invested in the commodity future market, out of them 61% of the
investors are interested to invest in the coming future.
What type of services does you except from your broker?
service you expect from your broker
)9 )9.0 )9.0 )9.0
14 14.0 14.0 *+.0
14 14.0 14.0 95.0
5 5.0 5.0 100.0
100 100.0 100.0
,enuine In5or#ation
Moderate Brokerage
,ood 6ervie
/eo##endation
Total
Valid
Frequeny !erent Valid !erent
"u#ulative
!erent
servie you e-$et 5ro# your 7roker
5.0%
14.0%
14.0%
)9.0%
/eo##endation
,ood 6ervie
Moderate Brokerage
,enuine In5or#ation
Interpretation:
The graph shows that, the investors expect that the brokers should
provide them the genuine information regarding the market. Also they
want moderate brokerage and good services from the brokers.
To analyses the impact of spot gold market on
future gold market.
My Fourth objective is to identify the impact of Spot gold
commodity market on Gold Commodity Future market, means how the
prices prevailing in the commodities afect the Commodity Future
Market. The following table and chart shows the Correlation between
these two markets.
Correlation(r)= NXY-(X) (Y)
[NX
2
(X)
2
]
1/2
[NY
2
(Y)
2
]
1/2
= 4**349419+0 8 19)*04919))44.*
:4*9019*3+1* 8 4*341*44159;
1/+
:4**50)*4)+9 8 4*))5+4*41);
1/+
= 0.9941
Probable Error = 0.6745*(1-r
2
)/n
= 0.6745*(1- 0.9931
2
)/ 17
= 0.00224
6*probable error = 0.0135
DATE
SPOT
PRICE
FUTURE
PRICE
10-16 Dec 2007 10207.29 10253.86
17-23 Dec 2007 10270 10281.86
24-30 Dec 2007 10577.86 10477.43
31,1-6 Jan 2008 10729.14 10841.43
7-13 Jan 2008 10902.14 11229.43
14-20 Jan 2008 11291.43 11310.14
21-27 Jan 2008 11434.43 11477.71
28-31 jan,1-3 Feb 2008 11582.71 11681.29
4-10 Feb 2008 11609.43 11577.57
11-17 Feb 2008 11677.43 11600
18-24 Feb 2008 12024.71 11960.29
25-29 Feb,1-2 Mar 2008 12320.29 12271
3-9 mar 2008 12735.29 12700
10-16 Mar 2008 12895.29 12863.29
17-23 Mar 2008 12503.14 12435.43
24-30 Mar 2008 12149.57 12144
31,1-5 Apr 2008 11724.67 11699.33
Interpretation:
Hence,
Correlation is 0.9931
Probable Error is 0.00224
Above correlation calculation shows the correlation value 0.9931 of spot
and Future prices of commodity Gold and the probable error 0.00224.
Hence the six time of probable error i.e. 0.0135 is less than the
correlation. Therefore, the prices prevailing in both the market are highly
correlated. This means, the future prices will very much following the
trend of Spot commodity market price. In fact the future prices will
refect the spot prices very closely.
Correlation between Spot Gold Price and Dollar Rate
DATE
SPOT
PRICE
$
RATE % Changes in prices
10-16 Dec 2007 10207 39.41 Spot $ rate
17-23 Dec 2007 10270 39.6 0.0061441 0.00475
24-30 Dec 2007 10578 39.45 0.0299764 -0.00382
31,1-6 Jan 2008 10729 38.69 0.0143021 -0.01919
7-13 Jan 2008 10902 39.32 0.0161243 0.01621
14-20 Jan 2008 11291 39.33 0.0357073 0.00033
21-27 Jan 2008 11434 39.47 0.0126645 0.00356
28-31 Jan,1-3 Feb
2008 11583 39.41 0.0129684 -0.00156
4-10 Feb 2008 11609 39.6 0.0023064 0.00497
11-17 Feb 2008 11677 40.02 0.0058573 0.0105
18-24 Feb 2008 12025 40 0.0297399 -0.00061
25-29 feb,1-2 Mar
2008 12320 39.89 0.0245803 -0.00261
3-9 Mar 2008 12735 40.45 0.0336843 0.01389
10-16 Mar 2008 12895 40.44 0.0125635 -3.5E-05
17-23 Mar 2008 12503 40.52 -0.0304098 0.00194
24-30 Mar 2008 12150 40.15 -0.0282786 -0.00913
31,1-5 Apr 2008 11725 40 -0.0349728 -0.00372
Correlation (r) of Spot Gold Prices and Dollar Rate is 0.2042
Probable error is 0.1659
Interpretation:
As, P.E. is not more than r (correlation), according to rule three nothing
can be conclude with certainty. It means that correlation between spot
gold price and $ rate is neither signifcant nor certainty.
But analyzing above chart and correlation (0.2042), it can be concluded
that correlation between dollar and spot gold price is not so much
signifcant. It means if one price increases other will be decrease. For
example, in the week of 24 to 30 December and 14 to 20
th
January Gold
price increases and dollar rate decreases.
To study the factors such as economic factors of
US, world political and other factors afect on future
market.
NEWS OF BILLION
Walter De Wet Standard Bank, London
The current global economic environment remains bullish for gold,
but should ensure that volatile conditions remain. We see the US
economy coming under increased pressure during the frst half of 2008.
As a result credit spreads should widen further. Combined with sovereign
and political risk on the rise in certain countries, we should see support
for gold in 2008H1. The US dollars woes are linked to US interest rates
declining. The Fed is set to continue easing rates, while the ECB seems
unperturbed by slowing economic growth, and is unlikely to cut rates for
now. Although jewelry demand in major centers showed a decline
towards end-2007, this must be a continuous trend before any real price
impact will be seen. The new futures contract that started trading on the
Shanghai Futures exchange is bound to renew interest in gold as an
investment in China. We do believe this impact could be large. Continued
portfolio diversifcation via commodity investment vehicles should provide
support to the metal on the downside.
There are three factors that play a dominating role as the driving
force of precious metals prices. The price of crude oil serves as a good
proxy for infation fears. The next major fundamental factor is the US
dollar exchange rate, as metals are priced in this currency. Here, either
the US dollar index or the EUR/USD exchange rate has the closest
correlation. And fnally, precious metals are not necessarily a safe haven.
If investors risk appetite drops due to crisis in fnancial markets,
precious metals are often sold to cover losses. The US stock market
provides a good indication of risk aversion.
Crude oil started the year with a bang as it traded at $100/bbl for
the frst time. However, much of the price increase is based on
speculation rather than the underlying supply and demand balance. In
2008, demand is expected to expand less than the consensus view due to
a slowdown of G7 economies. In China as well, GDP growth is likely to be
lower than last year. By the end of this year, Brent is predicted to be
trading at $70/bbl.
Thus, one of the main fundamentals suggests a signifcant
correction rather than a continuation of the upward trend of precious
metals in 2008. However, this does not contradict our forecast. In the
frst half of the year, other factors will be superimposed on the efect of
falling oil prices. The correlation between gold and crude oil has been
greater over the last eight years than that between gold and the
EUR/USD exchange rate, but there are also phases in which the
correlation is rather less close. These periods include the beginning of
the year, when diferent seasonal patterns can lead to a divergence. While
crude oil often eases over the winter, demand from the jewelry industry
means that gold and silver prices tend to rise until the end of the frst
quarter. Although jewelry demand may not be quite as great as expected
in view of the high current prices, it should support the prices of gold
and silver. In the case of platinum it appears that jewelry demand in
China is falling, whereas in gold it remains strong despite price rises.
Demand from fnancial investors is far more important than demand
from the jewelry industry for the development of precious metal prices. It
is often said that investors buy gold as a hedge against rising infation.
However, empirical experience does not bear this out. US infation has no
signifcant efect on the gold price. Demand from fnancial investors is
largely determined by the US dollars performance in the currency
markets.
Since the sub prime mortgage crisis broke out, what has driven
the dollars weakness is the expectation that the Fed will cut interest
rates so that the dollar becomes less attractive relative to other
currencies. Following the recent weak US economic data and the rise in
the unemployment rate to 5%, our US economists anticipate that the Fed
will start lowering interest rates more aggressively, cutting the Fed funds
rate during the frst half of the year in four steps of 25bp each to
3.25%.This means that the Fed Funds target rate is well below the ECB
refnancing rate.
The US dollar is expected to weaken against the Euro to 1.53 in
Q2, but in H2 the tables will be turned. US GDP growth should pick up
again as early as Q2 and further accelerate after the summer, so that the
market will no longer expect further interest rate cuts. In the Euro zone
on the other hand weaker growth is expected, so that the ECB should
reduce the refnancing rate by 25bp.The US dollar is likely to appreciate
against the Euro to 1.43. Precious metals will then face a headwind from
falling oil prices and a frmer dollar. They will not be able to withstand
this pressure and prices should ease signifcantly. Silver is likely to
perform better than gold in H1 but to perform worse in H2. Due to
production problems in South Africa and the demand pattern of the
automobile industry, platinum is expected to hold better than palladium.
Davis, David Credit Suisse Standard Securities
Johannesburg
Upward pressure on the gold price is likely being driven by the US
economic environment, rising oil and commodity prices and a change in
the dynamics surrounding supply and demand. These combined factors
have resulted in a weakening of the US dollar, which in turn has driven
gold higher. The economic environment in the US was recently jolted by
sub prime mortgage losses, the tightening of the credit market and the
lowering of interest rates. Higher oil prices will likely result in infationary
pressures, which in turn will put upward pressure on gold.
Turning to supply-and-demand fundamentals, over the longer
term, our studies indicate that global gold production (primary supply)
will begin to decline as the diminishing number of new reserves fails to
compensate for dying mines. The decline in production will likely be
accelerated should the gold mining industry continue to incur signifcant
year-on-year infation rates which are not ofset by similar or signifcantly
higher gold price increases.
Geopolitical tensions, which generally lead to higher gold prices
and price volatility, have heightened with the political turmoil in Pakistan
after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the cross border
operations of Turkish troops to hunt down Kurdish separatists in Iraq.
Tensions are also ever-present between the US and Iran and the US and
North Korea. Given this longer-term scenario, we believe the supply-
demand imbalance going forward will begin to accelerate at an ever-
increasing pace into a net defcit, which in turn will likely put signifcant
upward pressure on the gold price.
Suki Cooper Barclays Capital, London
In our view, gold prices are set to post positive gains for the
seventh consecutive year on an annual average basis. Following a
signifcant swing into defcit last year, the market fundamentals remain
tightly balanced and external drivers remain positive. Even with the
dollar stabilizing at its recent lower levels, investment demand remains
strong. Gold prices were buoyed by investor interest and this is likely to
remain the key price determinant this year. External factors such as
higher infation expectations, broader economic concerns, geopolitical
tensions and Fed rate easing are likely to drive prices higher. On a
fundamental basis mine supply remains constrained and physical and
investment demand should emerge upon price dips providing a price
foor.
Fifteen Fundamental Reasons for bullish run of Gold
1. Global Currency Debasement:
The US dollar is fundamentally & technically very weak and should fall
dramatically. However, other countries are very reluctant to see their
currencies appreciate and are resisting the fall of the US dollar. Thus, we
are in the early stages of a massive global currency debasement, which
will see tangibles, and most particularly gold, rise signifcantly in price.
2. Investment Demand for Gold is Accelerating:
When the crowd recognizes what is unfolding, they will seek an
alternative to paper currencies and fnancial assets and this will create
an enormous investment demand for gold. To facilitate this demand, a
number of new vehicles like Central Gold Trust and gold Exchange
Traded Funds (Elf's) are being created.
3. Alarming Financial Deterioration in the US:
In the space of two years, the federal government budget surplus has
been transformed into a yawning defcit, which will persist as far as the
eye can see. At the same time, the current account defcit has reached
levels which have portended currency collapse in virtually every other
instance in history.
4. Negative Real Interest Rates in Reserve Currency (US dollar):
To combat the deteriorating fnancial conditions in the US, interest rates
have been dropped to rock bottom levels, real interest rates are now
negative and, according to statements from the Fed spokesmen, are
expected to remain so for some time. There has been a very strong
historical relationship between negative real interest rates and stronger
gold prices.
5. Dramatic Increases in Money Supply in the US and Other Nations:
US authorities are terrifed about the prospects for defation given the
unprecedented debt burden at all levels of society in the US. Fed
Governor Ben Bernanke is on record as saying the Fed has a printing
press and will use it to combat defation if necessary. Other nations are
following in the US's footsteps and global money supply is accelerating.
This is very gold friendly.
6. Existence of a Huge and Growing Gap between Mine Supply and
Traditional Demand:
Gold mine supply is roughly 2500 tonnes per annum and traditional
demand (jewellery, industrial users, etc.) has exceeded this by a
considerable margin for a number of years. Some of this gap has been
flled by recycled scrap but central bank gold has been the primary
source of above-ground supply.
7. Mine Supply is anticipated to Decline in the next Three to Four
Years:
Even if traditional demand continues to erode due to ongoing worldwide
economic weakness, the supply demand imbalance is expected to persist
due to a decline in mine supply. Mine supply will contract in the next
several years, irrespective of gold prices, due to a dearth of exploration in
the post Bre-X era, a shift away from high grading which was necessary
for survival in the sub-economic gold price environment of the past fve
years and the natural exhaustion of existing mines.
8. Large Short Positions:
To fll the gap between mine supply and demand, central bank gold has
been mobilized primarily through the leasing mechanism, which
facilitated producer hedging and fnancial speculation. Strong evidence
suggests that between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes (30- 50% of all central
bank gold) is currently in the market. This is owed to the central banks
by the bullion banks, which are the counter party in the transactions.
9. Low Interest Rates Discourage Hedging:
Rates are low and falling. With low rates, there isn't sufcient contango
to create higher prices in the out years. Thus there is little incentive to
hedge, and gold producers are not only hedging, they are reducing their
existing hedge positions, thus removing gold from the market.
10. Rising Gold Prices and Low Interest Rates Discourage Financial
Speculation on the Short Side:
When gold prices were continuously falling and fnancial speculators
could access central bank gold at a minimal leasing rate (0.5 - 1% per
annum), sell it and reinvest the proceeds in a high yielding bond or
Treasury bill, the trade was viewed as a lay up. Everyone did it and now
there are numerous stale short positions. However, these trades now
make no sense with a rising gold price and declining interest rates.
11. The Central Banks are nearing an Infection Point when they will
be Reluctant to provide more Gold to the Market:
The central banks have supplied too much already via the leasing
mechanism. In addition, Far Eastern central banks who are
accumulating enormous quantities of US dollars are rumored to be
buyers of gold to diversify away from the US dollar.
12. Gold is Increasing in Popularity:
Gold is seen in a much more positive light in countries beginning to come
to the forefront on the world scene. Prominent developing countries such
as China, India and Russia have been accumulating gold. In fact, China
with its 1.3 billion people recently established a National Gold Exchange
and relaxed control over the asset. Demand in China is expected to rise
sharply and could reach 500 tonnes in the next few years.
13. Gold as Money is Gaining Credence:
Islamic nations are investigating a currency backed by gold (the Gold
Diner), the new President of Argentina proposed, during his campaign, a
gold backed peso as an antidote for the fnancial catastrophe which his
country has experienced and Russia is talking about a fully convertible
currency with gold backing.
14. Rising Geopolitical Tensions:
The weakening conditions in the Middle East, the US occupation of Iraq,
the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and the growing confict between
the US and China due to China's refusal to allow its currency to
appreciate against the US dollar headline the geopolitical issues, which
could explode at anytime. A fearful public has a tendency to gravitate
towards gold.
15. Limited Size of the Total Gold Market Provides Tremendous
Leverage:
All the physical gold in existence is worth somewhat more than $1
trillion US dollars while the value of all the publicly traded gold
companies in the world is less than $100 billion US dollars. When the
fundamentals ultimately encourage a strong fow of capital towards gold
and gold equities, the trillions upon trillions worth of paper money could
propel both to unfathomably high levels.
Conclusion:
The dollar is in an irreversible death spiral, crude oil prices have
topped +$100/barrel, and the stability of societies around the world are
becoming more and more fragile by the day as political and religious
factions continue to furiously battle. These fundamentals are
compounded by an approaching recession triggered by the housing and
credit crisis building in the United States. So Foreign investors are going
to think twice about putting their money into US stocks especially with
the dollar entrenched in a long term bear market.
As Gold and silver are also commodities and when paper markets
and governments are performing well, precious metals like gold and silver
go back to their status as commodities. What we are seeing now,
however, because of the lower dollar and investor fows because of safe
haven type of purchasing, everyone looking to precious metals, and
investors are moving into the precious metals to protect their hard-
earned savings. So gold is becoming money again.
I think gold prices may move from $1000 to $2000 (i.e. around
Rs13000 to Rs.22000) an ounce in a matter of six to eight months,
depending on how the issues with the dollar pan out from here.
Findings
In India MCX is trading in bullion market.
Goldsmiths get their raw material from wholesale dealers.
They fx the prices on daily trading bases.
Hence there is positive correlation between both market
traders can easily predict the future prices of the commodities and
hedge their positions.
Correlation between spot gold price and dollar rate is 0.2048
& probable error is 0.1659. So it would not be concluded that both
spot gold prices and dollar rates are highly correlated or not.
Most of the respondents are interested in investing in equity
(i.e. 49%) when compared to the other investment alternatives
because they feel investing in equity will provide more returns to
them.
Now commodity future market is not new to the investors as
almost 82% of respondents are aware about commodity future
market out of them only 16% have actually invested.
67% of Investors have not invested as they have a perception
that it is risky and they even do not have much knowledge about
trading mechanism.
The investors who have not yet invested in the commodity
future market, out of them 61% of the investors are interested to
invest in the coming future. The investors expect that the brokers
should provide them the genuine information regarding the
market. Also they want moderate brokerage and good services from
the brokers.
For gold price fuctuation main reasons are
Dollar depreciation / appreciation
World distress
Increase in money supply
Infation
SUGGESTIONS
Both Spot Gold & Future Gold Markets are positively correlated the
traders have knowledge about the commodity demand and supply
and their price fuctuations. So Karvy can approach these traders
and they can easily convince them so these people are the targeted
customers for Karvy.
More Awareness program has to be conducted by Karvy
consultants so that already aware investor takes the challenge to
invest in this commodity future market. Because since this was
new to the market and also risky but gives good return. so it can
be done through by giving advertisements in local channels, News
papers, by sending E-mail to present customers etc
From survey it is found that most of the potential customers are
concerned about the genuine information and moderate brokerage
so Karvy can look upon this. If it can give good information and
charge moderate brokerage it will help to attract more and more
customers.
As correlation between spot gold rate and dollar rate is not high,
investor can hedge their risk by investing in gold future and dollar.
So they get beneft of diversifcation.
The best opportunities for investors to protect themselves against
the coming fnancial reckoning are with precious metals and
mining stocks.
CONCLUSION
Capital market is already matured and reached at high level, every
investor interested to invest but not in commodity Future Market due to
lack of awareness. As per Data analysis most of the investors do not have
much idea of commodity market in Belgaum they are required to be given
awareness training and knowledge with the help of workshops and
seminars, as investors are willing to know more about commodity market
i.e. 61% of the respondents are willing to invest in the market The Karvy
Consultancy and other Brokers should take major steps to give fare
knowledge about the commodity market and its operations to the public.
Compared to Capital market Commodity market is less risky (minimum
margin, easy to hold, no manipulation & fraud), maximum proftability.
Commodity market is in growing stage.
As in my study it is found that, there exists a high degree of
positive correlation between Spot Commodity Market and Commodity
Future Market. If an amount of small change in the spot gold market
prices has the direct impact on the future prices of gold in commodity
market. So Traders can take more advantage of this. Because they can
predict the future prices, depending upon the present demand and
Supply in the spot market. As they also get benefts of diversifcation,
means in case of uncertainty in gold market they can invest in dollar i.e.
forex market. It helps to all such as Individual investors and gold traders.
There is a maximum hours of trading that is from 10am to 11.55 pm. It
is better for working class people to deal at evening.
"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no
way to protect savings from confscation through infation.
There is no safe store of value."