FREDERICKpolls

2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104

Arlington, VA 22201
(703) 528-3031 (p) (703) 528-1204 (f)
Keith@FrederickPolls.com www.FrederickPolls.com
TO: Eliot Cutler Campaign
FROM: Keith Frederick; FrederickPolls, LLC
DATE: September 19, 2014
RE: Poll Results. September 16-17, 2014. n=400 Likely Voters.


1. Ballot Vote.
In this years election for Governor between Paul LePage, the Republican, Mike Michaud, the
Democrat, and Eliot Cutler, an Independent - which one are you most likely to support?
%
Paul LePage 35
Mike Michaud 35
Eliot Cutler 19
Undecided 11

This fresh poll of 400 voters conducted Tuesday, September 16
th
and Wednesday,
September 17
th
shows LePage and Michaud in a dead heat at 35% and Eliot Cutler at
19%. A significant 11% remain undecided.
2. Fluidity.
Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the Governors election, are you
leaning toward someone, or are you still trying to decide?

With 45% not yet definitely decided upon their vote, this 2014 election for Governor
remains fluid and open to change.
Most of those definitely decided are supporting Governor LePage. Among Michaud
voters, 40% are either just leaning toward him or still deciding. This equals 14 of his
current 35 points.
Definitely
Decided (55%)
Leaning (21%)
Still deciding
(23%)
Poll Results. September 16-17, 2014. n=400 Likely Voters.
September 19, 2014 Page 2



FrederickPolls September 2014
3. Eliot Cutler is the Clear Second Choice.
Which candidate for Governor would be your second choice?


Fifty-four percent (54%) of Maine voters pick Eliot Cutler as their second choice. Cutler
is the second choice of 84% of Michaud voters and 42% of LePage votersby far more
acceptable than either party label candidate or even none.
4. Cutler vs. LePage.
If the election for Governor were just a choice between Paul LePage and Eliot Cutler,
which one -- LePage or Cutler -- would you support?
%
Eliot Cutler 50
Paul LePage 40
Undecided 10

Proof of Cutlers wider appeal comes in his 10-point advantage head-to-head with
LePage. Cutler gains 81% of Michauds votes and even pulls a 54% to 12% lead from
the initial 11% undecided.
22
6
19
54
0 20 40 60 80 100
None/won't say
Paul LePage (R)
Mike Michaud (D)
Eliot Cutler (I)
%
Poll Results. September 16-17, 2014. n=400 Likely Voters.
September 19, 2014 Page 3



FrederickPolls September 2014
5. Ratings.
Favorable Unfavorable
% %
Susan Collins 74 22
Angus King 64 28
Mike Michaud 58 35
Eliot Cutler 46 37
Paul LePage 43 54

While Senator Collins holds strong favorable ratings heading into the final stretch of her
reelection campaign, Independent Angus King (64-28) also has broad appeal across the
state.
Michaud maintains highest favorables (58%) of the three gubernatorial candidates
suggesting that Republican attempts to raise his negatives have so far fallen short.
Cutler maintains a more positive than negative profile.
Paul LePage is rated net negative (43% favorable, 54% unfavorable) including an
extremely high 45% very unfavorable.


Methodology
Sample Size: n=400
Scope: Statewide Random.
Interview Dates: September 16-17.
Interview Method: Telephone, live callers. 86% landline; 14% cell.
Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%.
Party Registration Breakdown: 33% Democrat, 28% Republican, 37%
Independent, 2% Green.

Toplines September 2014
Maine Statewide/September Track Job 2679

Actual sample: 400 1


FrederickPolls 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104 (703) 528-3031
Arlington, VA 22201
A. Registered to Vote/Party ID.

Democrat 33%
Republican 28%
Green Party 2%
Independent/unenrolled 37%

B. Likely November 2014 Voter.

Very likely 96%
Somewhat likely 4%

1. Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the Governors election, are
you leaning toward someone, or are you still trying to decided?

Definitely decided 55%
Leaning toward someone 21%
Still trying to decide 23%
DK/Refused 1%

Tell me if your opinion of each of the following is -- very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. Here is the first one.

2. Mike Michaud.

Very favorable 31%
Somewhat favorable 26%
Somewhat unfavorable 15%
Very unfavorable 20%
DK/Refused 8%

Favorable 58%
Unfavorable 35%

Toplines September 2014
Maine Statewide/September Track Job 2679

Actual sample: 400 2


FrederickPolls 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104 (703) 528-3031
Arlington, VA 22201
3. Susan Collins.

Very favorable 36%
Somewhat favorable 38%
Somewhat unfavorable 14%
Very unfavorable 8%
DK/Refused 4%

Favorable 74%
Unfavorable 22%

4. Eliot Cutler.

Very favorable 11%
Somewhat favorable 35%
Somewhat unfavorable 22%
Very unfavorable 15%
DK/Refused 17%

Favorable 46%
Unfavorable 37%

5. Angus King.

Very favorable 29%
Somewhat favorable 35%
Somewhat unfavorable 14%
Very unfavorable 14%
DK/Refused 8%

Favorable 64%
Unfavorable 28%

6. Paul LePage.

Very favorable 31%
Somewhat favorable 11%
Somewhat unfavorable 9%
Very unfavorable 45%
DK/Refused 3%

Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 54%

Toplines September 2014
Maine Statewide/September Track Job 2679

Actual sample: 400 3


FrederickPolls 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104 (703) 528-3031
Arlington, VA 22201
7a. In this years election for Governor between Paul LePage, the Republican, Mike
Michaud, the Democrat, and Eliot Cutler, an Independent - which one are you most
likely to support?

Paul LePage/Republican 35%
Mike Michaud/Democrat 35%
Eliot Cutler/Independent 19%
Undecided 11%

7b. Second Choice.

Paul LePage/Republican 6%
Mike Michaud/Democrat 19%
Eliot Cutler/Independent 54%
Undecided 22%

8. If the election for Governor were just a choice between Paul LePage and Eliot
Cutler, which one - LePage or Cutler - would you support?

Paul LePage 40%
Eliot Cutler 50%
Undecided 10%

D1. Gender.

Male 51%
Female 49%

D2. Age.

18-29 2%
30-39 3%
40-49 10%
50-59 23%
60-64 18%
65-Up 42%
Refused 2%

Toplines September 2014
Maine Statewide/September Track Job 2679

Actual sample: 400 4


FrederickPolls 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 104 (703) 528-3031
Arlington, VA 22201
D3. County.

Androscoggin 9%
Aroostook 9%
Cumberland 20%
Franklin 1%
Hancock 6%
Kennebec 9%
Knox 4%
Lincoln 2%
Oxford 5%
Penobscot 7%
Piscataquis 3%
Sagadahoc 4%
Somerset 4%
Waldo 3%
Washington 4%
York 11%
Refused 0%

Media Market

Presque Isle 9%
Bangor 26%
Portland/Auburn 65%

Congressional District

51%
49%