Attracting Retailers To Your Town Centre, Keith Hargest

Hargest & Wallace Planning Ltd
Attracting Retailers to your

Town Centre
Keith Hargest
Introduction
Background How has retailing been changing?
What are the drivers of change?
How is this affecting smaller town centres?
What can we do about it?
How has retailing been changing?
No. of Shops in Scotland
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1976 1990 1996 2000
No. of Shops in
Scotland
Changing numbers of shops
1970s 1990 steady numbers of shops
Decline since 1990s
50 specialist food shops close each week in the
UK (Fed of Small Businesses)
Changes in Scottish Retail
No. of Shops - Scotland
25,000
25,200
25,400
25,600
25,800
26,000
26,200
26,400
26,600
26,800
27,000
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Scotland - Retail Turnover m
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Scotland - Retail EmploymentEmployees
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aberdeenshire
Aberdeenshire - Retail Units
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aberdeenshire
Aberdeenshire - Retail etc Employment
(' 000s)
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Aberdeenshire
Retail Turnover
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
Shops have got bigger
Average Sales Area Per Store
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
DIY Grocers Grocers
(ex Tesco)
Clothing Electrical
S
q

F
e
e
t
1998
2005
Other Changes
Super regional centres: Braehead; Edinburgh
bypass
Accelerated growth in available expenditure:
Convenience 1% pa over past decade (flat
previously)
Comparison 4.2% pa over past decade (<3%
previously)
Low inflation deflation for comparison goods
since 1998 (15% lower in 2005 than 1998)
Other Changes
Increase in small store formats most marked in
grocery sector M&S; Tesco express; Co-op
buying Alldays
Increased globalisation of ownership and supply
No major retail chains have HQ in Scotland
Diversification of products and services by
grocers
Market Concentration
Grocery Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
Clothing Sector
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
Electricals Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
DIY Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000 2005
Largest
Top 5
Geographical changes
Concentration in largest centres: in 1996 retailers need
only 200 branches to tap three quarters of national
durable sales so smaller centres increasingly rely on
independent retailers and other attractions
This would include only about 15 centres in Scotland
i.e. smallest would be ca. size of Dunfermline
Rents in Scotland: % of 25-30
th
of top 5 centres
2001 22%
2006 20%
And more besides
Growth of internet retailing:
48bn in 2007, 78bn in 2010??? (IMRG)
PKMG: one fifth of all new expenditure is directed on
line
Retailers controlling the supply chain
..
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1975 1985 1995 2003
Motoring Costs
Scotland GDP
Driversof Change: Cost of Travel
Other Drivers of Change
Rising affluence and increased disposable
income
Globalisation impact on structure of industry
Demands for more attractive shopping
destinations amenity and safety
Responses to public policy changes
Social changes competition of consumers
time and perceived value of time
How does this affect small town centres?
Secondary locations
Lower growth in floorspace,
Lower growth/decline in turnover
Poor rental and yield performance
Clone townBritain
The future for small town centres?
Future changes?
Continued growth of primary
locations
Variation in the fortunes of
small centres changes in
catchment, level of
competition and presence or
absence of USPs
Investment in new formats by
multiples often in new
locations
Development of specialist
retail locations leisure,
travel, tourism etc
Implications for towns in the North East
Aberdeen City Centre reinforce dominance
Strength of Aberdeen City retail parks
Decline in traditional suburban and many smaller town
centres and rural areas
Ongoing interest by some retailers esp by grocers
e.g.: Banchory; Turriff; Stonehaven etc
Loss of trade to the internet
Some retail warehousing demand Fraserburgh;
Peterhead; poss for Inverurie
The role of independent traders?
Responses What can we do about it?
Go with the flow or fight? Shoppers are voting
with their feet (cars) yet town centres are key
and valued by the community
Meeting operator requirements
Cannot change geography cf Inverurie v Peterhead
What do multiple operators want?
Units of the right size: 200 sq m typical minimum
Easy configuration
Good profile
Responses
Meeting requirements:
Making suitable sites available
CPO
Underwriting development costs
Active identification of markets
What is the role of the public sector
partnerships with
developers/operators
Creating USPs
Every town is unique but..
Heritage; tourism; environmental
quality; population growth
Town Centre Strategies
How to make them work?
Scope: infrastructure; physical envt;
creating capacity for change; economic
structure; business support; TCHCs
Success:
stakeholder engagement;
strong public sector leadership;
sustained resourcing
Delivery vehicle for implementation
Using public sector assets
Using CPO
Communication of results
Other Tools
Use Planning Controls
consistently: carrot & stick
Supporting town centre
businesses marketing;
business skills
Managing decline
Business Improvement
Districts

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