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CLASSIFICATI0N: Social Sciences (Psychology, Economics), Biological Sciences
(Systems Neuioscience)

TITLE: *001234516 789:7015;7 15< 579016 =10535>
?3>516? <9035> 75<4>7549? 78@703A75216 A10B72

A0TB0RS: Alec Smith
, Teiiy Lohienz
, }ustin King
, P. Reau Nontague
, Colin F.

Affiliations 1. BSS anu CNS, Califoinia Institute of Technology, Pasauena, CA
2. viiginia Tech Caiilion Reseaich Institute, viiginia Tech, Roanoke, vA, S. The
Wellcome Tiust Centie foi Neuioimaging, 0niveisity College Lonuon, 0K

Colin Cameiei, Caltech
12uu E. Calif. Blvu.
Pasauena CA 911u6
Email: cameieihss.caltech.euu

N0NBER 0F TEXT PAuES (incl iefs + fig. legenus): 1S
N0NBER 0F FIuS.: 4

ABBREvIATI0NS: functional magnetic iesonance imaging (fNRI), geneial lineai
mouel (uLN), bloou-oxygenation level uepenuent (B0LB), nucleus accumbens


CBARACTER C00NT: ("#$%%% &'(')$ '*+&, )-.)$ /01+-/$ 2'3/,$ )14&-/$ -561)'7*/)
TEXT: 21,9SS (acknowleugements, main text, footnotes, Fig. captions, iefs)

Colin Camerer 9/30/13 3:00 PM
Deleted: C.-,.,/
Fig. 1: two columns 18cm wiue x 1S.S1 cm height (=S6u chaiscm) 4864
Fig 2: two columns 18cm wiue x 1S.S cm height (=S6uchaiscm) 486u chais
Fig S. two columns 18cm wiue x 1S.S1 cm height = 4864
Fig 4. two columns 18 cm wiue x 1S.S cm height = 486u chais

Total figs 19,448
T0TAL: 41,4u1

Besigneu ieseaich: AS, TL, PRN, CFC
Peifoimeu ieseaich: AS, TL, }K
Contiibuteu new analyses: AS, TL, PRN
Analyzeu uata: AS
Wiote papei: AS, TL, PRN, CFC
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Significance Statement (12u woius max)

Asset piice bubbles shift laige amounts of capital anu have seiious, long-lasting
macioeconomic effects. But how bubbles foim anu ciash iemains mysteiious. 0ui
expeiimental economics methouology contiols funuamental asset values, anu
theiefoie makes bubble iuentification simple. In multi-subject maikets, with 2-S
subjects scanneu using fNRI, we constiuct a pictuie of how behavioi anu biain
activity uevelop uuiing bubbles. Tiaueis who buy moie aggiessively baseu on
nucleus accumbens (NAcc) signals fuel the bubble. Bigh eaining oi "smait money"
tiaueis have eaily waining signals in insulai coitex befoie piices ieach a peak, anu
sell coinciuently with that signal, piecipitating the ciash. These expeiiments coulu
help unueistanu othei cases in which human gioups bauly miscompute the value of
actions oi events. (118 woius)
Asset piice bubbles aie extenueu peiious in which piices iise well above
funuamental values. We obseiveu the foimation anu ciash of enuogenous asset
bubbles in simple expeiimental maikets (following the maiket uesign of (1)) using
multi-subject neuioimaging. In each of 16 maiket sessions, consisting of an aveiage
of 2u tiaueis (iange 11-2S), we measuieu the neuial activity of 2-S paiticipants
(N=44 total) using functional magnetic iesonance imaging (fNRI). Tiaueis coulu
buy oi sell one iisky asset unit in each peiiou. Figuie 1A illustiates the sequence of
expeiimental events. Each maiket hau Su tiauing peiious. All subjects began with
1uu units of expeiimental cuiiency (a iisk-fiee asset) anu 6 units of a iisky asset.
Each peiiou, the iisky asset paiu a cuiiency uiviuenu 8 of eithei u.4u oi 1.uu pei
unit (with equal piobability), cieating an expecteu uiviuenu E|8j = u.7u. Cuiiency
eaineu a fixeu inteiest iate 9 of S% each peiiou. Aftei all Su iounus of tiauing weie
completeu the iisky asset was ieueemeu foi 14 units of the iisk-fiee cuiiency.

These paiameteis uefineu an unambiguous funuamental value foi the iisky asset.
Buying the iisky asset in peiiou ) at piice :) anu selling it one peiiou latei leaus to
the expecteu net ietuin !
! !!!!. The same investment of :) in the iisk-
fiee asset yielus a suie net ietuin of 9:). If these two ietuins aie equalin economic
teims, asset piices aie "in equilibiium"then theie is a stationaiy piice equal to a
constant funuamental value 2 uefineu by ! !
! !". Piices peisistently
above 2=14 inuicate a bubble; such a cleai bubble measuie is iaiely available in
fielu uata. Figuie 2A illustiates the piice paths foi all 16 maikets in this expeiiment.
Bubbles aie typical anu laige: the meuian piice peak was 64.Su (iange 19.68 to
1S6.u1). The bubble paths always iesult in a ciash, anu piices in the final peiiou aie
neai the funuamental 2=14 (meuian 14.1S). Figuie 2B illustiates a typical
expeiimental session. This maiket bubble ciasheu aftei peiiou Su. Tiauing volume
is substantial, which means that piices uo not iesult fiom a few extieme tiaueis.

Iuentifying bubbles anu pieuicting ciashes fiom piice uata alone is a notoiiously
uifficult pioblem (2). Bowevei, piices in these expeiiments aie cieateu by the
collective behavioi of the maiket paiticipants, so neuial activity coulu offei
biomaikeis foi the evolution of piice bubbles. Stuuies of asset piice bubbles inuicate
a iole foi psychological factois such as "euphoiia", "mania" (S), '"iiiational
exubeiance" (4), "animal spiiits" (S), anu "sentiment" (6). We sought neuial uata
that coiiesponus to such psychological constiucts anu that might help to iuentify
piice bubbles.

A key computation uuiing the asset maiket expeiiment involves the monitoiing of
iounu-to-iounu tiauing activity. 0sing a geneial lineai mouel (uLN) of the bloou-
oxygenation level uepenuent (B0LB) signal of neuial activity, we fiist establisheu
that the vential stiiatum, incluuing the nucleus accumbens (NAcc), iesponus
stiongly to both buying anu selling outcomes ievealeu at the "Tiauing Results"
scieen (Figuie SA, Table S4). In the call maiket mechanism that we employ, maiket
piices that aie above a subject's highest buy oi below a subject's lowest sell oiuei
iesult in tiaues (buys oi sells), at the maiket piice, that the subject has expiesseu a
willingness to make, The NAcc ieceives a high uensity of piojections fiom miubiain
uopamine neuions, which aie known to encoue iewaiu pieuiction eiioi signals (7).
Because the maiket piice is unknown when the oiueis aie placeu, any tiauing
activity shoulu iesult in positive iewaiu pieuiction eiiois, as the maiket piice
always impioves upon the subject's value expiesseu as a buy oi sell oiuei at a given
piice. Theiefoie, oui uLN iesults aie consistent with hunuieus of stuuies that
inuicate that the NAcc plays a cential iole in the encouing of ieinfoicement,
subjective value, anu iewaiu (8-1u, anu supplementaiy Figuie S2).

We next connect the tempoial uynamics of neuial activity to the valuation uynamics
ieflecteu in the maiket piice by extiacting tiial-to-tiial B0LB signals iesponses to
the "Tiauing Results" scieen (which shows both piices anu bought-oi-solu
infoimation) in a iegion-of-inteiest centeieu on the bilateial nucleus accumbens
(NNI |12, 8,-8j, see S0N). Recent stuuies have suggesteu a iole foi NAcc in the
valuation of both states anu policies (11), anu we hypothesizeu that the time seiies
of neuial activity in the NAcc woulu contain infoimation about the cuiient state of
the maiket (12), analogously to how maiket piices aggiegate the cuiient
infoimation anu policies of maiket paiticipants. To test this hypothesis, neuial anu
behavioial uata fiom all the sessions aie ie-aligneu on a common time scale with u
maiking the peak piice in each session. We then aveiageu the B0LB signal in oui
NAcc R0I acioss all subjects anu then computeu the moving aveiage of the pievious
S peiious of aggiegate NAcc activity. The iesulting moving aveiage NAcc time-seiies
is associateu with the cuiient level of the enuogenous piice bubble (Fig. SB) anu is
coiielateu with futuie piice changes (Fig. SS).

Nany finance theoiies uesciibe a mixtuie of nave backwaiu-looking "momentum"
investois, funuamental tiaueis, anu sophisticateu investois who plan aheau (1S-
1S). When bubbles foim anu ciash, these thiee types will have low, meuium, anu
high eainings, iespectively. Eainings aie cleaily measuieu, but type classification
can be eiioneous. We theiefoie simply soiteu all subjects into thiee teiciles of
expeiimental eainings (which cleaily coiielate with uynamic shaie tiauing; see Fig.
SC). Fig. SB shows that the moving-aveiage NAcc time seiies in the highest anu
lowest-eaining gioups aie similai acioss tiauing peiious. Since aveiage NAcc
activity appeais similai in these two gioups, but eainings peifoimances aie so
uiffeient, we useu iegiession analysis to exploie the peifoimance uiffeience in the
link between NAcc iesponse anu futuie buying. We finu that the NAcc iesponse to
the "Tiauing Results" (outcome) infoimation is positively associateu with valuation
anu uemanu foi the iisky asset in subsequent tiauing peiious, aftei contiolling foi
obseivable vaiiables such as ietuins, uiviuenu yielu, anu the inuiviuual's cuiient
policy. This pattein is uiiven by a stiongei biain-behavioi link in low-eaining
subjects (Table S6).

We next lookeu foi an association acioss inuiviuuals between theii NAcc-buying
sensitivity anu peifoimance. Foi each tiauei we computeu
! via logistic
iegiession, wheie !!!
! is the piobability of buying at time );< anu =) is the
aveiage NAcc activity at time ) ovei the pievious S peiious (incluuing time )). The
paitial ueiivative
is a biain-buying signal: It measuies the change in
piopensity to buy as a function of iecent NAcc activity. Fig. SE plots inuiviuual
tiauei piofits against
. The ielation is significantly negative (i=-u.S2,
p<u.uu2). The negative slope measuies the economic cost of 'following one's
nucleus accumbens.'

While low eaineis aie net buyeis aiounu the piice peak, high eaineis begin to sell
theii shaies a few peiious befoie the bubble peak (see Fig. 4B). To investigate the
neuial activity associateu with the switch to selling befoie the peak, we focuseu a
piioii on the insulai coitex. The insula is an "inteioceptive" aiea that is active
uuiing bouily uiscomfoit anu unpleasant emotional states, such as pain, anxiety, anu
uisgust. Its anteiioi iegion is thought to be associateu with the awaieness of bouily
states (16, 17). Anteiioi insula is also activateu by financial iisk (18, 19) anu by
vaiiance in pieuiction eiiois, a measuie of unceitainty in tempoial-uiffeience
leaining mouels (2u). We hypothesizeu that neuial activity in the anteiioi insula
might motivate sophisticateu paiticipants to begin selling the iisky asset. Figuie 4C
shows the aveiage B0LB activity paths fiom the anteiioi insulai coitices of the
high- anu low-eainings gioups (using an R0I centeieu at NNI (S6,24,2), iauius
6mm, fiom (18)). Neai the time that the two gioups begin theii iespective shifts to
selling anu buying, insula activity incieases in the high eaineis but theie is no
similai iesponse in the low eaineis.

Analogously to the pievious NAcc-buying sensitivity analysis, we measuieu the
association between the insula-selling ielationship anu peifoimance. Figuie 4B
plots total eainings against

wheie !!!
! is the piobability of selling at time
);<, anu >) is the aveiage neuial activity in the iight anteiioi insula at time ) ovei the
pievious S peiious (incluuing time )). This measuie of the neuial biain-selling link is
positively coiielateu with peifoimance (i=u.48, p<u.uu6). In the high eaineis, the
iight anteiioi insula signal seems to encoue an unceitainty-uetection signal that
'wains' them about the impenuing ciash anu that is associateu with selling


The expeiimental methou is iueal foi unueistanuing the neuiopsychology of asset
bubbles, because the expeiimentei can contiol the funuamental asset value, anu
hence cleaily iuentify when piices aie too high (1, 1S, 21-1S). 0ui expeiimental
uesign useu live tiauing to show that asset piice bubbles iesult enuogenously fiom
an inteiaction between uiffeient types of tiaueis. Tiaueis ieact to buy oi sell events
anu iepiesent bubble magnituue commonly in the NAcc (as has been obseiveu in
othei investment uecision tasks, 24-26). Bowevei, tiaueis who buy most
aggiessively given NAcc signals peifoim woise in the task. The slope of this
buyNAcc ielation iepiesents a new *-6974-?1@'791& (-)9'+ foi the financial cost of
'iiiational exubeiance' anu coulu be useu as quantitative anu paiametiic biomaikei
in othei contexts wheie humans ovei-value bau acts oi outcomes like compulsive
gambling, ovei-eating, oi uiug auuiction (27).

The seconu neuiobehavioial finuing is a waining signal in the anteiioi insula coitex
of high eaineis befoie the piice peak. The piesence of an insula signal in the high
eaineis, its concuiient absence in the low eaineis, anu its association with tiauing
pattein changes pioviues piovocative eviuence that the insula signal coulu be useu
as a quantitative biomaikei foi the foiwaiu-looking behavioial change obseiveu in
the high eaineis. Foi example, it might be useu effectively in a bio-feeuback iole in
settings wheie eaily uetection of pioximate unceitainty about statistical ieveisal is
ciucial foi successful behavioi.

Nany theoiies of bubbles in laige natuial maikets uepenu on tiauing stiuctuie anu
economic agents' incentives (28, 29), oi the inteiaction between valuation anu
meuia coveiage (Su-S2). These theoiies uo not apply to oui simple expeiimental
maikets. A moie geneial explanation is that tiaueis get inteinal signals (oi
"hunches") that a bubble exists; bubbles then peisist because tiaueis who get an
eaily signal keep buying, expecting that the othei tiaueis' signals will not aiiive
until latei (SS). Bowevei, these inteinal timing theoiies uo not specify neuial
mechanisms (S4). Theiefoie, we concluue that oui eviuence is most consistent with
bubble theoiies baseu on bounueu iationality, emotion anu neuial activity (S-6, 1S,
S4, SS). Foi example, the successful investoi Waiien Buffet famously saiu, "Be
feaiful when otheis aie gieeuy, anu gieeuy when otheis aie feaiful." 0ui
expeiimental iesults suppoit the fiist pait of his auvice to a suipiising uegiee:
Wisei tiaueis who begin selling when theii insula is active (inuicating uiscomfoit)
sell a few peiious befoie the peak to tiaueis with the highest "gieeu", measuieu by
incieaseu NAcc-buying sensitivity.

0ui iesults contiibute to unueistanuing the biological basis of gioup valuation in
natuial asset maikets. Nouein examples of bubbles in the last thiee uecaues incluue
stocks in }apan, China, anu the 0S high-tech sectoi, anu housing in many countiies.
Bubbles ieuistiibute enoimous wealth anu can leave long-lasting macioeconomic
scais, anu aie theiefoie impoitant to both investois anu policymakeis. In 1996
Feueial Reseive Chaii Alan uieenspan askeu: "But how uo we know when iiiational
exubeiance has unuuly escalateu asset values." (S6) Bis successoi, Ben Beinanke,
suggesteu "piogiess will iequiie caieful empiiical ieseaich with attention to
psychological as well as economic factois." (S7) Theie is no conclusive theoiy of
how bubbles geneially stait anu enu (S8,S9). 0ui iesults point in the uiiection of
theoiies baseu on an inteiaction between tiaueis with exubeiant valuation anu
foiwaiu-looking tiaueis who iiue bubbles, then sell when they feel unceitain.

#;B54=67<>7A752?T This ieseaich was suppoiteu by NSF giant SES-uu-992u9, the
Betty anu uoiuon Nooie Founuation, anu the Lippei Family Founuation (CFC).

)7E7075;7? 15< "427?T

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Su. Byck, A, Zingales, L. (2uuS). The bubble anu the meuia. In F790791)-
O7@-9*1*+- 1*8 F10')1& 2&7L/ '* 1 O&741& D+7*7(J$ Coinelius, P. anu B. Kogut
(eus.), 0xfoiu 0niveisity Piess.
S1, velukamp, L. (2uu6). Neuia Fienzies in Naikets foi Financial Infoimation H(-9
D+ S-@$ #VWXY$ Z[[\V%<,
S2. Bhattachaiya, 0, ualpin, N, Ray, R, Yu, X. (2uu9). The iole of the meuia in the
Inteinet IP0 bubble. B 2'* ]61*) H*1&J/'/, 44(S), 6S7-682.
SS. Abieu, B, Biunneimeiei N. (2uuS). Bubbles anu ciashes. D+7*7(-)9'+1 71(1)
S4. Lo, A, (in piess). Feai, uieeu, anu Financial Ciises:A Cognitive Neuiosciences
Peispective, In. I1*8477R 7* KJ/)-('+ S'/R, eus Fouque, }P, Langsam, }
(Cambiiuge 0niveisity Piess).
SS. Shefiin, B (1999) U-J7*8 O9--8 1*8 2-19 (0xfoiu 0niv. Piess).
S6. uieenspan, A (1996)
S7. Beinanke, B (2u1u)
S8. Biunneimeiei, NK (2uu8) Bubbles. In A?- =-L :1&391@- M'+)'7*19J 7C D+7*7('+/
Q*&'*-, eus Builauf, SN, Blume, LE (Palgiave Nacmillan, Basingstoke):
S9. Reinhait, C, Rogoff, K (2u11) A?'/ A'(- >/ M'CC-9-*) (Piinceton).

U3>907 V7>75<?

U3>907 ,J #??72 &10B72 78@703A752. #J Each peiiou subjects vieweu the following
scieens, in oiuei: Positions, 0iuei Entiy (xS), Tiauing Results, anu Biviuenus anu
Inteiest. WJ 0iuei elicitation pioceuuie. Subjects iesponueu Buy, Sell, oi Bolu to a
ianuom (unifoim) piice uiaw fiom each of five bins each of wiuth equal to 1u% of
the last peiiou's piice. The miuule bin was centeieu on the last peiiou's piice. (J
Bow the piice is chosen (=maiket cleaiing). The highest piice at which subjects
iesponueu Buy, anu the lowest piice at which subjects iesponueu Sell, weie enteieu
into a closeu book call maiket. Piices anu tiauing outcomes weie iepoiteu on the
Tiauing Results scieen.

U3>907 -J X5<4>7549? A10B72 :9::67?. #J Piice paths in16 uiffeient expeiimental
maiket sessions. The uaik line shows the aveiage piice in each peiiou ovei the 16
sessions. Plotteu below the piices is the noimalizeu pei-subject volume foi each
peiiou; eiioi bais aie stanuaiu eiiois. WJ Single session piices (top) anu tiauing
volume (miuule) fiom one statistically typical expeiimental session. The bottom
panel shows the iisky asset holuings; each subject is inuicateu by a uiffeient coloi.
NRI subjects aie shown with thickei lines. The uasheu line is the "claiivoyant"
piofit-maximizing shaie path (assuming subjects coulu somehow coiiectly
anticipate all futuie piices).

U3>907 /J *001234516 X89:7015;7J #J uLN iesults showing the conjunction of neuial
iesponses to "You Bought" anu "You Solu" messages; p<u.uS (family-wise eiioi
coiiecteu). Peak T = 7.69, NNI = |-1u,8,-14j. W. Aveiage NAcc activity tiacks the
enuogenous maiket bubble. NASNacc (blue) is the aveiage of the S pievious
peiious' NAcc activity, ie-centeieu aiounu the maximal (peak) piice in each session.
(J Eaineis weie uiviueu into thiee gioups, by teiciles of eainings. Nean units of the
iisky asset weie aligneu aiounu the maiket peak anu aveiageu within each gioup
anu tiauing peiiou. SJ The NAcc activity association of piices appeais to be
consistent acioss subject gioups. The coloieu lines plot the mean NAcc activity in
the highest anu lowest teiciles of the payout uistiibution. XJ The cost of changing
one's buying piobability as a function of the change in activity in the nucleus
accumbens as ieau out by eainings. 41 scanneu subjects aie incluueu in this plot.
The negative slope shows that tiacking the gioup-uefineu bubble anu committing to
it in the foim of incieaseu biain-to-buying piobability costs money. This uefines a
neuial metiic foi iiiational exubeiance anu measuies it in teims of eainings.
U3>907 YJ Q3>F 15< 64= 710570? 15< 35?961 E&)* =10535> ?3>516?. #. We useu an
R0I centeieu on NNI |S6,24,2j, coiiesponuing to the peak "iisk pieuiction" signal
fiom (2S). WJ Tiauing behavioi of the highest anu lowest eainings teiciles, aligneu
aiounu the maiket peaks. The y-axis plots the mean change in units of the iisky
asset in each peiiou. These tiauing cuives cioss about 1u peiious befoie the peak of
the maiket. The high eaineis' sell-off continues unabateu until about 1u peiious
aftei the peak. (. Aveiage iight anteiioi insula activity in high eaineis anu low
eaineis shows that low eainei activity fluctuates aiounu u while high eainei
activity shows a peak that coinciues with the beginning of the sell-off of units shown
in panel A (S-1u peiious befoie the piice peak). SJ The piopensity to sell baseu on
iight anteiioi insula signal (a biain-selling ielation) is associateu with highei

!"##$%&%'()*+ -)(%*.)$/

0**)(.1')$ %2"3%*)'4% )'5 '%"*)$ 6)*'.'7 /.7')$/
5"*.'7 %'517%'1"/ %2#%*.&%'()$ #*.4% 3"33$%/

Alec Smith
, Teiiy Lohienz
, }ustin King
, P. Reau Nontague
, Colin F. Cameiei

1. Califoinia Institute of Technology, Pasauena, CA
2. viiginia Tech Caiilion Reseaich Institute, Roanoke, vA
S. The Wellcome Tiust Centie foi Neuioimaging, 0niveisity College Lonuon, 0K

82#%*.&%'()$ -%(915/

We conuucteu 16 expeiiment sessions (2 in 0ctobei 2u11, 8 in }anuaiy 2u12 anu 6
in Apiil 2u12) with S2u total subjects. Each session incluueu between 11 anu 2S
subjects (mean 2u, min 11, max 2S). The majoiity of oui subjects (276 total) weie
0CLA stuuents paiticipating in the expeiiment at the Califoinia Social Science
Expeiimental Laboiatoiy (CASSEL). In auuition, 2-S inuiviuuals pei session (44
total) took pait in the expeiiment fiom two locations at the viiginia Tech Caiilion
Reseaich Institute (Blacksbuig anu Roanoke). These subjects unueiwent functional
magnetic iesonance imaging (fNRI) of theii neuial activity uuiing the expeiiment.
All paiticipants weie netwoikeu togethei via a special expeiiment softwaie
package, NEN0, to conuuct the expeiiment. NEN0 was uesigneu foi use with
multiple subjects in the scannei.

0f the 44 total subjects that weie scanneu, 2 subjects weie uioppeu fiom fuithei
analysis because of technical issues with synching behavioial anu functional
imaging uata. 0ne auuitional subject was uioppeu because the subject hau no "Sell"
tiansactions (pioviuing too little vaiiability to be incluueu in ceitain inuiviuual-level
analyses), leaving 41 fNRI subjects.

Behavioial-only paiticipants ieceiveu a $S show-up payment, while subjects who
unueiwent fNRI scanning ieceiveu an auuitional payment of $Su. Befoie tiauing
began, the expeiimenteis ieau the instiuctions alouu. Subjects then took a S-
question quiz (iepiouuceu below), aftei which the expeiimenteis ievieweu the quiz
answeis. In auuition, subjects paiticipateu in S piactice tiauing iounus befoie live
tiauing began.

Table S1 pioviues summaiy statistics sepaiately foi subjects who uiu anu uiu not
unueigo imaging. We also conuucteu 1 pilot session wheie all subjects (behavioi-
only anu fNRI) weie locateu in viiginia; this session is incluueu in the uata. The
scanneu subjects aie in geneial oluei (mean age 28.4S vs. 2S.1S). In auuition, 8S%
of oui scanneu population inuicateu theii iace as White oi Bispanic, while 7u% of
oui behavioi-only subjects inuicateu that theii iace was Asian. The genuei balance
foi both gioups is close to Su%.

:%9);.1*)$ <%/"$(/

"#$%&' ('#')(')*(+ Table S1 iepoits summaiy piice anu volume statistics at the
aggiegate anu session levels. To enable compaiisons with othei stuuies of
laboiatoiy asset bubbles we also iepoit summaiy statistics that measuie the extent
of ueviations fiom funuamental value: the Relative Absolute Beviation anu Relative
Beviation foi each session.(,) Both measuies aie volume weighteu, so that they take
into account the numbei of tiaues at a given piice. Relative Absolute Beviation
(RAB) is computeu as
!"# !

anu Relative Beviation (RB) is computeu as
!" !

wheie -' is the piice in each iounu ' anu .' is the numbei of units tiaueu in each
iounu. RAB is a measuie of "mispiicing": an RAB of u.1 means that the aveiage tiaue
takes place at a piice that is 1u% uiffeient fiom than funuamental value. RB auus
uiiectional measuies: an RB of u.1 means that the aveiage tiaue takes place at a
piice that is 1u% gieatei than funuamental value. In oui expeiiments, the mean
RAB is 1.uSu anu the mean RB is 1.u47, inuicating that the aveiage tiaue takes place
at 1u4.7% of funuamental value. The mean RAB anu mean RB aie veiy close in
magnituue because in almost all iounus, the piice is gieatei than funuamental value.
Foi compaiison, in the expeiiments iepoiteu by (/), the laigest iepoiteu RAB is
u.414 anu the laigest obseiveu RB is u.297, so oui expeiiments piouuce bubbles of
magnituue ioughly thiee times as laige as theiis.

0*#11&2 .(+ 3&4#.)5$#6 -#$')*)-#1'(+ 0ui behavioial paiticipants scoieu slightly
highei on the pie-expeiiment quiz (Table S1: mean scoie S.87 vs. S.4S foi the
scanneu paiticipants), anu this uiffeience is significantly uiffeient fiom u at the S%
level using a two-siueu t-test foi uiffeience in means (n =S17, p-value u.u4).
Bowevei, this uiffeience in quiz peifoimance uiu not appeai to iesult in a
noticeable uiffeience in tiauing behavioi oi peifoimance. Figuie S2 compaies
tiauing activity anu payout foi the expeiiment foi oui two subject populations. This
compaiison is impoitant because unueigoing neuioimaging might affect behavioi,
so that the behavioi of oui scanneu population might be uiffeient in some way fiom
the population of non-scanneu behavioial subjects. 0n aveiage, subjects tiaueu in
19.S1 iounus (stu. uev. 9.19, iange 2-44). The mean payout in the expeiiment was
$2u.86 (stu. uev. S.27, iange 4.u7-4S.62). Theie aie no significant uiffeiences
between the two gioups in eithei the numbei of tiaues (p=u.SS9, Wilcoxon iank-
sum test; p = u.S22S, Kolmogoiov-Smiinov test) oi in payouts (p = u.2164, Wilcoxon
iank-sum test; p = u.1SS1, Kolmogoiov-Smiinov test).

712).)28#6 *4#$#*'&$)(')*( #((5*)#'&2 9)'4 '$#2)1: 3&4#.)5$ #12 -&$;5$<#1*&+ We useu
multiple iegiession analysis to exploie whethei uemogiaphic factois weie
associateu with tiauing behavioi anu peifoimance. Table SS iepoits the iesults
fiom oiuinaiy least squaies iegiessions of: (Nouel 1) payout on uemogiaphic
vaiiables anu quiz scoies; (Nouel 2) Numbei of tiaues on uemogiaphic vaiiables
anu quiz scoies; (Nouel S) Quiz scoie on uemogiaphic vaiiables. The iesults fiom
Nouel 1 suggest that the main subject-level vaiiable that influences payouts aie task
compiehension anu tiauing activity: scoiing one auuitional question iight on the
pie-expeiiment quiz is associateu with eaining an auuitional $u.7S. 0n aveiage
tiauing is costly: each auuitional tiaue iesults in an aveiage loss of $u.14. Note
howevei that the ielationship of tiaues to payouts is nonlineai: the veiy highest
eaineis (ioughly, the highest 2u%) tiaue moie than aveiage, as uo the lowest
eaineis. Fuitheimoie, any subject can guaiantee himself oi heiself the mean
payout in a given session by not tiauing at all. Cancelleu tiaues aie a pioxy foi
subject confusion; they occui when subjects say they woulu buy at a piice highei
than the lowest piice they woulu sell at. Cancelleu tiaue hau a negative but
statistically insignificant association with payout. Nouel 2 suggests that Asian
subjects make on aveiage almost 4 moie tiaues than Black oi White subjects; anu
Nouel S shows that on aveiage male subjects scoie on aveiage almost V point
highei on the pie-expeiiment quiz ielative to female subjects.

0&)7.'7 =*1(141$

Image acquisition and analysis. The imaging was conuucteu on thiee
S.uT Siemens Nagentom Tiio scanneis at the viiginia Tech Caiilion Reseaich
Institute. Two scanneis aie locateu in Roanoke, vA anu one in Blacksbuig, vA. Two
sepaiate cohoits of imaging uata weie collecteu foi this expeiiment: one in 0ctobei
2u11 anu }anuaiy 2u12, anu anothei in Apiil 2u12. The fiist cohoit compiiseu of 27
healthy subjects ieciuiteu in accoiuance with a piotocol appioveu by the viiginia
Tech Institutional Review Boaiu. Bigh-iesolution T1-weighteu scans weie acquiieu
using a magnetization piepaieu iapiu giauient echo sequence. Functional imaging
weie acquiieu with a iepetition time of 2uuu ms anu an echo time of Su
ms. Twenty-six 4-mm slices weie acquiieu paiallel with the anteioposteiioi
commissuial line, yieluing functional voxels that weie S.4mm x S.4mm x 4mm. The
seconu cohoit of 17 healthy subjects weie ieciuiteu in the same methou anu
matcheu the paiameteis of the high-iesolution scans fiom the initial
cohoit. Functional images fiom cohoit two weie acquiieu with a iepetition time of
2uuu ms anu an echo time of 2S ms. Thiity-seven 4-mm slices weie acquiieu Su off
the anteioposteiioi commissuial line, yieluing functional voxels that weie S.4mm x
S.4mm x 4mm.

7<#:& -$&-$5*&(()1:. Images weie analyzeu using SPN8
( Slice timing coiiection was
fiist applieu to tempoially align all the images. Notion coiiection to the fiist
functional image was peifoimeu using a six-paiametei iigiu-bouy tiansfoimation.
Images weie subsequently spatially noimalizeu to the Nontieal Neuiological
Institute template by applying a 12-paiametei affine tiansfoimation, followeu by
nonlineai waiping using stanuaiu basis functions. Finally, foi uLN analyses, the
images weie smootheu with an 8 mm isotiopic uaussian keinel anu then high-pass
filteieu (128 s wiuth) in the tempoial uomain.

0&)7.'7 >')$+/%/

=&1&$#6 6)1&#$ <52&6+ We initially estimateu the following geneial lineai mouel
(uLN) of B0LB iesponses with an AR(1) stiuctuie. In each voxel we iegiesseu the
piepiocesseu, spatially smootheu B0LB signal on (1) Inuicatois foi each each of the
foui uiffeient stimulus scieens (Positions, 0iuei Entiy, Tiauing Results, anu
Biviuenus anu Inteiest); (2) Sepaiate inuicatois foi tiials wheie subjects bought
anu solu (i.e., tiials wheie subjects saw "You Bought" oi "You Solu" messages); (S)
Paiametiic iegiessois foi the expecteu uiviuenu yielu anu the ietuin at the time
outcomes aie ievealeu (the "Tiauing Results" scieen). The expecteu uiviuenu yielu
in iounu t is !!!
! !
! !!! !
. Retuin is uefineu as !!
! !
: the fiactional
change in piice fiom the pievious iounu. All iegiessois of inteiest aie convolveu
with a canonical hemouynamic iesponse function (Fiiston et al., 1998). We also
incluueu the time seiies of 6 heau motion paiameteis estimateu fiom piepiocessing
as a iegiessoi of no inteiest, to contiol foi iesiuual heau motion in the time seiies.

7<#:)1: $&(86'(+ An oveiview of the iesults fiom this analysis is given in Table S4.
We founu stiong iesponses to "You Bought" anu "You Solu" messages in the vential
stiiatum, ielative to oui baseline of "No Tiaue" messages (both iesults aie
significant at the S% level, aftei aujusting significance levels foi multiple
compaiisons acioss the whole biain using Family Wise Eiioi (FWE) coiiections).
We founu few uiffeiences in neuial iesponses to "Buy" anu "Sell" messages, even at
much moie libeial significance thiesholus (p-value u.uuS, uncoiiecteu), save a small
clustei in the miuule fiontal gyius foi the contiast "Bought"-"Solu".

We also founu that neuial activity iesponueu negatively to expecteu uiviuenu in the
vential stiiatum anu subgenual cingulate coitex. This iesult is consistent with the
analysis in the main text; the expecteu uiviuenu is the inveise of the piice, times a
constant. In auuition we founu neuial activity in a numbei of biain iegions
associateu with theoiy-of-minu tasks, such as the supeiioi tempoial gyius. We
founu few neuial coiielates of ietuin except at veiy libeial thiesholus, wheie we
note a small clustei in the supeiioi tempoial gyius, in a iegion wheie neuial activity
is often associateu with theoiy-of-minu tasks.

>$)#6 '5 '$)#6 2#'# &?'$#*')51+ We extiacteu the tiial-to-tiial uata as follows: Aftei
piepiocessing (see above), we filteieu the (unsmootheu) time couise of B0LB
iesponses in each voxel using a high-pass filtei with banuwiuth 128s. We then
iemoveu any iemaining lineai tienu by iegiessing the filteieu time couise in each
voxel on a constant anu lineai time tienu anu extiacting the iesiuuals. Next, we
estimateu the baseline B0LB iesponses to each of the foui uiffeient stimulus
scieens (Positions, 0iuei Entiy, Tiauing Results, anu Biviuenus anu Inteiest), using
a uLN of the B0LB iesponses with an AR(1) seiial coiielation stiuctuie. The mouel
incluueu iegiessois foi each of the foui scieens, each convolveu with a canonical
hemouynamic iesponse function (@), as well as the time seiies of 6 heau motion
paiameteis estimateu fiom piepiocessing. This mouel estimates neuial iesponses
that aie associateu with a given stimulus, but not the neuial computations that aie
involveu in assessing the stimulus. The (whiteneu) iesiuuals fiom this iegiession
captuie tiial-to-tiial vaiiation in B0LB iesponses.
The next step was to compute, foi each subject anu each voxel, the neuial
iesponse to each of the Su "Tiauing Results" scieens. We appioximateu the peak
hemouynamic iesponse by inteipolating between the two volumes acquiieu closest
to S seconus aftei the stimulus onset. The iesult is a (Su x appioximately 2S,uuu
voxels) matiix of uata containing the iesiuual vaiiation in B0LB iesponses to new
tiauing anu piice infoimation. Fiom this we can examine the tiial-to-tiial iesponses
in any iegion of inteiest. To facilitate cioss-subject compaiison, we noimalizeu the
iesponse in each voxel to have mean u anu stanuaiu ueviation 1, then aveiageu the
noimalizeu iesponses in each iegion of inteiest (e.g. the NAcc).

A&:)51( 5; )1'&$&('. Foi the bilateial NAcc iegion of inteiest (R0I), we useu an
anatomical mask consisting of a 6mm-iauius spheie centeieu on NNI cooiuinates
(12,8,-8). The iesulting mask is shown in Figuie SS (Panel A) anu contains a total of
24 voxels. This R0I contains the peak signal fiom the Neuiosynth ieveise-infeience
"iewaiu" map (ief anu Figuie SS (Panel B)). The map shows iegions that aie moie
likely to be iepoiteu in stuuies that use the teim "iewaiu" fiequently (S29 stuuies of
the Su89 in the Neuiosynth uatabase as of }uly 1u, 2u1S) (B). The peak z-scoies foi
this ieveise-infeience map aie locateu at NNI (1u,12,-1u) (iight NAcc) anu (-1u , 1u
,-8) (left NAcc). Both locations aie containeu in oui NAcc mask. We also list the top
teims fiom the stiuctuie-to-function ieveise infeience featuie map locateu at the
centei of oui NAcc R0I in Table SS. The table shows teims that appeai with high
fiequency fiom the 167 stuuies in the Neuiosynth uatabase that iepoit activation
within 6 mm of NNI cooiuinates (12,8,-8). Piominent featuies at this location
incluue "iewaiu" , "incentives", anu "feeuback".
Foi the Anteiioi Insula R0I, we useu a 6mm iauius spheie, centeieu on NNI
cooiuinates (S6,24,2) locateu in the iight Anteiioi Insula. These cooiuinates
coiiesponu to the peak "iisk pieuiction" signal fiom (C), aftei conveiting fiom
Talaiiach to NNI cooiuinates.
In the iegiessions below (Table S6) we employ as contiol vaiiables neuial
activity at the time of the "Tiauing Results" scieen extiacteu fiom R0Is in the
Amyguala, left Boisolateial Piefiontal Coitex (lBLPFC), anu iight Tempoio-Paiietal
junction (iTP}). The Amyguala R0I is baseu on an the Automateu Anatomical
Labeling (AAL) Amyguala mask (D). The lBLPFC mask is a 6mm-iauius spheie
centeieu at NNI (-4u,44,18), anu the iTP} spheie is a 6mm-iauius spheie centeieu
at NNI (S6,-S6,16).

:*).'?:%9);.1* >//14.)(.1'/

The scatteiplot in Figuie S in the main text shows that buying when neuial activity
in the nucleus accumbens is high is associateu with low oveiall piofits in the
expeiiment. Similaily, the scatteiplot in Figuie 4 shows that selling when neuial
activity is in the iight anteiioi insula is high is associateu with highei piofits. Foi
both of these analyses, the vaiiable on the x-axis is ueteimineu by geneiating a
uepenuent vaiiable inuicating whethei the subject bought (oi in Figuie YY, solu) in
iounu ', anu then iegiessing this binaiy uepenuent vaiiable on the S-peiiou moving
aveiage of neuial activity in the given iegion of inteiest at iounu 'E,. The x-axis plots
the maiginal effects fiom these iegiessions: the change in piobability of buying (oi
selling) with iespect to a 1 unit change in oui measuie of neuial activity.

0'(%*;)$ *%7*%//.1' )')$+/%/

"52&6+ 0ui oiuei entiy pioceuuie elicits a uemanu cuive foi the iisky asset, foi each
subject in each iounu. We use the eliciteu oiueis, namely the highest piice to which
a subject iesponus "Buy" anu the lowest piice to which a subject iesponus "Sell", to
estimate the piice at which a subject is inuiffeient between buying anu selling
(measuieu as a peicentage of the last peiiou's piice).

The expeiiment piotocol piesenteu S ianuomly-oiueieu stimulus piices each
tiauing iounu (!
! ! ! !!!!!!!!!!!!. Subjects inuicate whethei they piefei to buy,
holu, oi sell if the piice is !
in iounu '. We assume that subject )'s uemanu cuive
foi the iisky asset in iounu ' is uownwaiu sloping in the piice -'. uiven this
assumption theie is some piice !
such that !
! !! At piices gieatei !
, the
subject piefeis selling, while at piices lowei than !
, the subject piefeis selling.

To stuuy the ueteiminants of uemanu foi the iisky asset, we let
! !
anu assume that !
!! !
! anu we estimate the
coefficients ! via maximum likelihoou. We noimalize by the maiket piice in the
pievious iounu because the piice piocess, anu also the iesponse uata, has a unit
ioot. Thus oui uepenuent vaiiable is the piice at which a subject is inuiffeient
between buying anu selling, expiesseu as a fiaction of the pievious iounu's piice.

Befine the categoiical vaiiable F)' as follows:
!! !" !
! !"#
! !" !"#
! !
! !"#
! !" !"#
! !

We uefine #)' as the highest stimulus piice !
to which subject ) iesponus Buy,
expiesseu as a fiaction of the pievious iounu's piice; anu similaily let 3)' uenote the
lowest stimulus piice !
to which subject ) iesponus Sell, again noimalizing by
the pievious piice; then !
lies in the inteival !
! !
anu F)' = u. If we obseive Buy
iesponses but not Sell iesponses in iounu ', then !
! !
! !! anu F)' = 1. Similaily
if theie aie no Buy iesponses then !
! !!! !
anu F)' = -1.

The log-likelihoou function is

! !! ! !
! !
! !! !"# !
! !
! !
! ! !"# !
! !
! !
! ! !"# ! !!

wheie ! ! is the inuicatoi function anu ! ! is the cumulative uistiibution function
foi the stanuaiu noimal uistiibution. This appioach is known as inteival iegiession
(cf. (G)).

0nuei moie iestiictive assumptions, we can motivate oui iegiession mouel with
iespect to subject's beliefs about futuie ietuins. Assume that at time ' subjects
maximize the constant absolute iisk aveision (CARA) utility function ! !
wheie !
! !
! *' is the numbei of units of the iisky asset, 8' is the
numbei of units of the iisky asset, -' is the piice in iounu t of the iisky asset, anu ! is
a measuie of iisk aveision. If the total ietuin of the iisky asset (incluuing the
uiviuenu) is noimally uistiibuteu, then subject )'s uemanu foi the iisky asset is:
!! !!!

When !
! !, we have
! !!

so unuei these (aumitteuly stiong) assumptions oui fitteu values !
! !
! can be
thought of as an appioximation of subject i's beliefs iegaiuing the piesent value of
the iisky asset. This expiession can be geneializeu to ieflect non-myopic plans. The
assumption of CARA utility anu noimally uistiibuteu ietuins is equivalent to
assuming that subjects have mean-vaiiance piefeiences; see e.g. (H), pages S6-S7.

A&(86'(+ Columns 1 anu 2 of Table S6 show the uiiect ielationship on valuation of
NAcc activity, anu ietuins anu uiviuenu yielu iespectively. Column S shows that a 1
stanuaiu ueviation change in oui measuie of NAcc activity is associateu with a 1.1%
inciease in willingness to pay foi the iisky asset, aftei contiolling foi ietuin anu
expecteu uiviuenu yielu.

Notivateu by theoietical anu expeiimental ieseaich that focuses on asymmetiies
among maiket paiticipants as an impoitant factoi in uiiving bubbles, we uiviueu
subjects acioss all expeiiments into eaining teiciles. The mouel in Column 4
inteiacts the teicile of eainings with NAcc activity, anu auus auuitional contiols
incluuing the subject's laggeu aveiage oiueis anu shaie position as well as
inuicatois foi each S-iounu block in the expeiiment. The mouel in Column S auus a
contiol vaiiable that measuies the subject's tiauing behavioi. In many iounus,
subjects iesponu eithei only "Buy" oi only "Sell" to the stimulus piices, so uiopping
these iounus might iesult in a consiueiable loss of powei. We theiefoie coue the
highest "bin" to which subjects iesponueu "Buy " fiom u to S, with no buy iesponse
in the iounu coueu as u, anu by couing the lowest "bin" to which subjects iesponueu
"Sell" fiom 1 to 6, with no sell iesponse in the iounu coueu as 6. We then calculateu
the vaiiable "Buy-Sell miupoint" in iounu ' by taking the aveiage of these two
numbeis. This vaiiable is a iough measuie of the subject's policy in a given iounu.
In auuition, this mouel auus auuitional contiols foi neuial activity extiacteu fiom
R0Is in the iight anteiioi insula, the amyguala, the iight tempoiopaiietal junction
anu the left uoisolateial piefiontal coitex. These vaiiables contiol foi the possibility
that vaiiations in neuial activity acioss the whole biain, iathei than in the NAcc
alone, aie uiiving the iesults. The coefficient estimates fiom mouel S show that in
the lowest eaining subjects, a 1-stanuaiu ueviation change in oui measuie of NAcc
activity is associateu with an appioximately 2.6% inciease in willingness-to-pay foi
the iisky asset a numbei that is both statistically anu economically meaningful.
Noie accuiate measuies of NAcc activity aie likely to impiove the piecision of this

0ui iesults conceining the influence of NAcc activity on behaivoi aie iobust to
uiffeient specifications of the uepenuent vaiiable. Results of ioughly the same
significance level anu magnituue aie achieveu when we peifoim: 1) Lineai
iegiessions wheie the uepenuent vaiiable is the buy-sell miupoint. 2) Tobit
iegiessions wheie the uepenuent vaiiable is each subjects' buy oiueis in a given
iounu, noimalizeu by the piioi iounu's piice; alteinatively we can use sell oiueis. S)
0iueieu piobit iegiessions wheie the uepenuent vaiiable is the bin chosen, again
using eithei the maximum "Buy" iesponse oi minimum "Sell" iesponse.

=*%5.4(.'7 @"("*% #*.4%/ @*1& A>44 )4(.;.(+

We investigateu whethei neuial activity in the NAcc, when aggiegateu within an
inuiviuual maiket, was useful in foiecasting futuie ietuins. We aveiageu the mean
zscoieu measuie of NAcc activity foi all the subjects within a given session, then
tempoially smootheu oui measuie ovei the S iounus 'EB to '. We then soiteu oui
measuie into S teiciles. Foi each teicile of oui maiket-level measuie of NAcc
activity, we computeu the mean of the S peiiou foiwaiu ietuin !!
! !
the iisky asset, as shown in Figuie S2. The bais show a cleai anu statistically
significant uiffeience between foiwaiu ietuins in the lowest teicile anu foiwaiu
ietuins in the highest teicile, with high values of NAcc activity associateu with the
lowest ietuins (p<u.uu1, Nann-WhitneyWilcoxon iank sum test foi equality of

S"##$%&%'()*+ B)3$%/ )'5 C.7"*%/D

!"3E%4( B+#%

:%9);.1*)$ F' G HIJK @-<0 F' G LLK
M)*.)3$% -%)' !(5D 5%;D -%)' !(5D 5%;D
MBN<0 u.uS u.18 1.uu u.uu
!%2 u.46 u.Su u.4S u.Su
>/.)' u.7u u.4S u.u8 u.27
:$)4O u.u2 u.14 u.u7 u.26
P9.(% u.27 u.44 u.8S u.S6
>7% 2S.1S 4.64 28.4S 1u.4u
Q".R S.87 1.27 S.4S 1.4S
=)+1"( $2u.8S S.29 $21.u9 S.19
B*)5%/ 19.46 9.uS 18.S4 1u.19
B)3$% !SD !"3E%4( N1&#1/.(.1'D MBN<0T 1 if subjects paiticipateu at viiginia Tech
Caiilion Reseaich Institute; u if subjects paiticipateu at 0CLAD !%2T u if Female, 1 if
NaleD Q".RT numbei of coiiect answeis on the pie-tiaue quiz. =)+1"(T Eainings foi
paiticipating in the tiauing expeiiment, excluuing show-up fees. B*)5%/T numbei of
times a subject bought oi solu in the expeiiment.

M)*.)3$% AF13/K -%)' !(5D U%;D HVW VXW IVW
=*.4% 8uu 27.797 19.6u8 1S.96S 2u.uuS Su.2SS
=*.4% F&)2K 16 6u.416 SS.26u Su.81u 64.Suu 71.27S
=*.4% F&.'K 16 1S.S6S u.687 1S.u7S 1S.S2S 1S.76u
=*.4% F@.')$K 16 14.717 1.648 1S.94u 14.12S 14.81u
M1$"&% 8uu u.S98 u.126 u.Suu u.4uu u.4SS
<1"'5/ 6.(9
=*.4% YSL
16 u.9S8 u.uS1 u.92u u.94u u.97u
<>U 16 1.uSu u.661 u.449 1.u9u 1.S42
<U 16 1.u47 u.661 u.446 1.u88 1.SS9

B)3$% !HD -)*O%( /"&&)*+ /()(./(.4/D Piice(all): all piice obseivations;
Piice(max), Piice(min) anu Piice(final) aie the maximum, minimum, anu final iounu
piices in each session, iespectively. volume (all) is the noimalizeu volume in each
session, shown as the fiaction of subjects who tiaueu in each iounu. RAB: Relative
Absolute Beviation; RB: ielative ueviation (see text foi uetails).

U%#%'5%'( M)*.)3$%
M)*.)3$%/ =)+1"( B1()$ (*)5%/ Q".R /41*%

!%2 41.6u 2.S24* u.477***

(48.61) (1.271) (u.1S6)
MBN<0 6S.86 u.92S -u.S27

(68.uS) (2.2u8) (u.299)
Q".R !41*% 74.S6** u.SS9

(Su.u9) (u.6S4)
:$)4O -1S.4u S.SuS -1.29S*

(1S7.1) (S.SS6) (u.6S8)
>/.)' 7S.8u S.728** u.u298

(S4.17) (1.7Su) (u.2u7)
B1()$ (*)5%/ -14.41***

N)'4%$$%5 (*)5%/ -S.972

N1'/()'( 2,u21*** 1S.6S*** S.662***

(68.96) (2.818) (u.1S2)
[3/%*;)(.1'/ S17 S17 S17
<?/\")*%5 u.u9S u.u61 u.u81
A"&3%* 1@ /%//.1' 16 16 16
!%//.1' C8 Yes Yes Yes
<13"/( !8 Yes Yes Yes

B)3$% !ZD U%(%*&.')'(/ 1@ /"3E%4( 3%9);.1*D Fixeu-effects iegiessionsD !%2T u if
female, 1 if male. MBN<0T subjects paiticipateu at viiginia Tech Caiillion Reseaich
Institute. B1()$ (*)5%/T numbei of buy anu sell tiansactions. N)'4%$$%5 (*)5%/T
tiaues cancelleu eithei because the subject tiieu to sell anu hau u units of the iisky
asset available, oi because the subject iesponueu buy to a piice that was gieatei
than a piice to which the subject iesponueu sell. Robust stanuaiu eiiois in
paientheses. *** p<u.u1, ** p<u.uS, * p<u.1.

:.')*+ M)*.)3$%/
B9*%/91$5/T #?;)$"% CP8 XDXV] N$"/(%* 82(%'( OYV
#%)O -A0 411*5.')(%/
M)*.)3$% <%7.1' <^_
>*%) M12%$/
B 2 + R
:1"79( vential Stiiatum RL 2S 8 6.46 -14 8 -14
!1$5 vential Stiiatum RL 2S47 2u6 9.uS 1u 8 -6

Infeiioi Tempoial uyius R 19 1u 6.87 46 -76 -6

Infeiioi Fiontal uyius L 69 72 6.18 -Su 8 22

0ibitofiontal coitex R 1u11S2 1uS S.66 22 48 -1u

Infeiioi Fiontal uyius L 46 12 S.6S -42 S2 14

Infeiioi Paiietal Lobule L 4u 16 S.64 -S8 -S2 46

Cuneus R 17 9 S.Su 14 -88 2

Anteiioi Cingulate Coitex R 9S2 11 S.18 1u S6 22
B9*%/91$5/T #?;)$"%T `'41**%4(%5 XDXXV] N$"/(%* 82(%'( OYV

:1"79(?!1$5 Niuule Fiontal uyius R 9 18 S.1S S8 8 S4
!1$5?:1"79( No significant clusteis

=)*)&%(*.4 -15"$)(1* M)*.)3$%/
B9*%/91$5/T #?;)$"%T `'41**%4(%5 XDXXV] N$"/(%* 82(%'( OYV
#%)O -A0 411*5.')(%/
M)*.)3$% <%7.1' <^_
2 + R
8U.; Infeiioi Paiietal Lobule L 4u Su S.76 -S4 -48 42

Supeiioi Tempoial uyius R 22S9 8 S.SS 62 -64 14

Infeiioi Paiietal Lobule R 4u 28 S.2S 62 -48 46

Supeiioi Tempoial uyius R 22 1u -S.u4 S8 8 -2

CuneusPiecuneus R

9 -S.S2 18 -84 Su

Niuule Fiontal uyius L 6 9 -S.SS -Su u 46

Piecuneus L 19 Su -S.7S -14 -84 46

vential Stiiatum
Anteiioi Cingulate Coitex
L 112SS2 7u -4.u7 -14 12 -14
<%("*' Supeiioi Tempoial uyius R 1922S9 2S 2.7u S4 -S6 14
B)3$% !LD a_- <%/"$(/D :1"79(T inuicatoi foi "You Bought" message, convolveu
with a hemouynamic iesponse function. !1$5T inuicatoi foi "You Solu" message,
convolveu with a hemouynamic iesponse function. 8U.;T expecteu uiviuenu yielu
(paiametiic mouulatoi) foi the iisky asset in iounu '. <%("*'T ietuin foi the iisky
asset in iounu '.

A%"*1/+'(9 <%;%*/% 0'@%*%'4%T -A0 FSHbcb?cK
C%)("*% R?/41*% #1/(%*.1* #*13D
iewaiu 19.SS u.92
iewaius 1S.17 u.92
incentive 11.6 u.9S
outcome 11.6 u.87
money 11.1S u.92
anticipation 1u.41 u.89
monetaiy 1u.S2 u.9
outcomes 9.74 u.88
win 9.1S u.92
feeuback 7.9S u.82

B)3$% !VD A%"*1/+'(9 *%;%*/% .'@%*%'4%D Showing the 1u featuies with highest z-
scoie of S2S entiies. The table shows teims that appeai with high fiequency fiom
the 167 stuuies in the Neuiosynth uatabase that iepoit activation within 6 mm of
NNI cooiuinates (12, 8, -8). Bownloaueu fiom
http:neuiosynth.oiglocations12_8_-8 on }uly 1u, 2u1S.

B)3$% !JD U%(%*&.')'(/ 1@ ;)$")(.1' @1* (9% *./O+ )//%(D "#$%&'() &%*&%++,-#
%+$,.($%+/ 01% 2%3%#2%#$ '(&,(4)% ,+ 5(,$64,$7 81%&% (,$ is the maximum stimulus piice
to which subject i iesponueu "Buy" in iounu ', anu 4,$ is the minimum piice to which
subject ) iesponueu "Sell" in iounu '. All pieuictoi vaiiables aie laggeu. NAcc: mean
B0LB iesponse in the 24-voxel bilateial Nucleus Accumbens R0I centeieu at NNI
12,8,-8. Low Eains: Inuicatoi foi subjects in the lowest thiiu of the eainings
uistiibution. Buy-sell miupoint: the miupoint between buy anu sell oiueis. Buy-sell
miupoint is the aveiage of the pievious iounu's maximum buy anu minimum sell
oiueis by bins, numbeieu fiom 1 to S. Nissing buy oiueis weie coueu as u anu
missing sell oiueis coueu as 6. 0nits: units of the iisky asset. iAIns: iight Anteiioi
Insula. Amyg: Amyguala. iTP}: iight tempoio-paiietal junction. lBLPFC: left
uoisolateial piefiontal coitex.
*** p<u.u1, ** p<u.uS, * p<u.1. Robust stanuaiu eiiois in paientheses.

M)*.)3$% (1) (2) (S) (4) (S)
A>44 u.uu8

u.u11** -u.uu1 u.uu2


(u.uuS) (u.uuS) (u.uuS)
_16 8)*'/dA>44

u.uS7*** u.u26***

(u.u11) (u.uu9)

u.u26*** u.u28*** u.u2u** u.uu1

(u.uu9) (u.uu9) (u.uu9) (u.uu8)
U.;.5%'5 e.%$5

u.u22* u.u21 u.u47** u.uS9**

(u.u1S) (u.u1S) (u.u2S) (u.u16)
:"+?/%$$ &.5#1.'(



yes*** yes*
`'.(/GX F0'5.4)(1*K

n.s. n.s.
L <[0/T *>0'/b >&+7b *B=fb
N1'/()'( 1.uuu*** 1.uu1*** 1.uu2*** u.9u8*** u.9S2***
_16 8)*'/
u.uS6*** u.u62***
!"3E%4( C8 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
V *1"'5 5"&&.%/ No No No Yes Yes
N$"/(%* $%;%$ Subject Subject Subject Subject Subject
AF13/K 174S 1829 174S 174S 174S

C.7"*% !SD =)+1"(/ )'5 B*)5.'7 )4(.;.(+D Each ciicle iepiesents an inuiviuual
paiticipant. The light ciicles aie 0CLA (behavioial) subjects, anu the shaue ciicles
iepiesent vT (fNRI) subjects. The x-axis shows the numbei of tiaues the subject
maue, anu the y-axis is the subject's payout in the expeiiment. Theie aie no
significant uiffeiences between the two gioups in eithei the numbei of tiaues
(p=u.SS9, Wilcoxon iank-sum test; p = u.S22S, Kolmogoiov-Smiinov test) oi in
payouts (p = u.2164, Wilcoxon iank-sum test; p = u.1SS1, Kolmogoiov-Smiinov

0 10 20 30 40 50

Payout and Trading Activity


C.7"*% !HD >K A>44 <[0T Two 6mm-iauius spheies centeieu at NNI (12,8,-8).
Theie aie 12 voxels in each spheie. B) A%"*1/+'(9 *%;%*/% .'@%*%'4% @%)("*%
&)#D This ieveise infeience map shows z-statistics that measuie the likelihoou that
the teim "iewaiu" will be associateu with a iepoiteu activation in a given biain
iegionD Image uownloaueu fiom http:neuiosynth.oigfeatuiesiewaiu on }uly 1u,

C.7"*% !ZD <%("*'/ )'5 A>44 )4(.;.(+D Each bai shows the mean S-peiiou foiwaiu
ietuin, calculateu within-session, foi each teicile of the S-peiiou moving aveiage of
NAcc activity.

This expeiiment is about economic uecision-making in an expeiimental maiket. If
you make goou uecisions, you might eain a consiueiable amount of money, which
will be paiu to you in 0S uollais at the enu of the expeiiment. The expeiiment will
consist of a seiies of Su tiauing peiious in which you will have the oppoitunity to
buy oi sell shaies of an asset that can yielu payments in the futuie.

Theie aie two assets in this expeiiment: CASB (expeiimental cuiiency units) anu
ST0CK. You begin with 1uu units of CASB anu 6 shaies of ST0CK.

ST0CK is tiaueu in a maiket each peiiou among all the expeiimental subjects, in
units of CASB. When you buy ST0CK, the piice you agieeu to pay is ueuucteu fiom
youi amount of CASB. When you sell ST0CK the piice you solu at is auueu to youi
amount of CASB.

Each peiiou, eveiy unit of ST0CK eains a low oi high uiviuenu of eithei u.4u CASB
pei unit oi 1.uu CASB pei unit. These uiviuenu payments aie equally likely, anu aie
the same foi eveiyone in each peiiou. Bowevei, the uiviuenu in each peiiou uoes
not uepenu on whethei the pievious uiviuenu was low oi high.

CASB eains a fixeu inteiest iate of S% each peiiou.

At the enu of the Su peiious of tiauing, each unit of ST0CK is automatically tiaueu in
foi 14.uu CASB. Then youi expeiiment CASB units aie conveiteu to 0S uollais at a
iate of 1uu CASB = $1 0S, to ueteimine how much you will be paiu at the enu of the

Foi example, suppose in a peiiou you have 12u units of CASB anu S units of ST0CK,
anu the uiviuenu is u.4u pei unit of stock. Then youi new CASB amount woulu be a
S% inciease times 12u (a gain of 6) anu total uiviuenus of u.4u x S = 2. Youi total
CASB woulu theiefoie inciease by 6 + 2 = 8 units. Notice that keeping CASB will
eain a ietuin (S% pei peiiou) anu using CASB to buy units of ST0CK will also yielu
uiviuenu eainings. If you aie tiying to eain the most money you might think about
whethei keeping CASB oi buying ST0CK cieates moie eainings.


In each peiiou you will be shown a seiies of S piices. You have 2 seconus to make a
uecision. In iesponse to each piice, you must quickly state whethei you woulu B0Y
1 unit of stock oi SELL 1 unit of stock at that piice, oi B0LB youi cuiient position
(not buying oi selling). If you uo not entei a iesponse in time the uefault choice that
will be maue foi you is B0LB.

The highest piice foi which you select B0Y anu the lowest piice foi which you select
SELL will be enteieu as "limit oiueis". A limit oiuei to buy at a piice of 17, foi
example, means you woulu like to buy at the piice of 17 anu #' #1F 659&$ -$)*&.
Similaily, a limit oiuei to sell at 11 means you woulu like to sell at the piice of 11
anu #' #1F 4):4&$ -$)*&.

Aftei all paiticipants entei oiueis, a single maiket piice P* is ueteimineu which
matches the numbei of people who woulu like to buy at that piice with the same
numbei of people who woulu like to sell. (That is, the numbei of limit oiueis to buy
at piice P* oi highei equals the numbei of limit oiueis to sell at piice P* oi lowei.)
Paiticipants who iesponueu B0Y to piices at oi above P* will buy one unit of ST0CK
at P*. Paiticipants who iesponueu SELL to piices at oi below P* will sell one unit of
ST0CK at P*.

If theie aie ties in the numbei of tiaueis who want to buy anu sell at exactly P* then
a ianuom choice ueteimines which tiaueis will actually B0Y oi SELL. If theie aie no
oiueis to B0Y, then theie aie no tiaues anu the last piice is iepoiteu as the
minimum piice at which tiaueis woulu SELL, anu if theie aie no oiueis to SELL the
iepoiteu piice is the maximum piice at which tiaueis woulu B0Y.

Tiauing iestiictions:

Saying that you will B0Y at a highei piice than you aie willing to SELL at is
consiueieu a tiauing mistake, anu is not alloweu. If this happens youi oiueis will be
canceleu foi that tiauing peiiou (the same as choosing B0LB).

Also, you must have enough CASB to pay the piice of ST0CK you woulu like to B0Y.
If you uo not have enough CASB to buy stocks, youi oiuei will be canceleu. You also
cannot SELL a shaie of stock if you have no available shaies.

0sing the keyboaiu to tiaue:

Entei SELL by piessing 1, B0LB by piessing 2, anu B0Y by piessing S on youi

Tiauing piactice:

Befoie the expeiiment begins you will have the oppoitunity to piactice tiauing
uuiing S piactice tiauing peiious. Youi uecisions uuiing these piactice iounus will
not count towaius youi payment foi the expeiiment.

Expeiiment pieview:

Each tiial consists of the following scieens P0SITI0NS, 0RBER ENTRY, TRABINu
RES0LTS, anu BIvIBENBS anu INTEREST. Each of these is shown below. In
between each scieen you will biiefly see a fixation cioss.

The P0SITI0NS scieen shows youi cuiient holuings of ST0CK anu CASB, the most
iecent tiaueu piice foi ST0CK, anu a piice histoiy giaph.

The 0RBER ENTRY scieen is wheie you entei limit oiueis. You will see a piice.
Piess 1, 2, oi S to SELL, B0LB oi B0Y. You will see this scieen S times pei peiiou.

The TRABINu RES0LTS scieen shows the maiket piice anu whethei you bought
solu, oi helu that tiauing peiiou.

The BIvIBENBS anu INTEREST scieen shows the total uiviuenus you eaineu that
tiauing peiiou fiom shaies of stock, anu the INTEREST you eaineu that iounu on
youi CASB holuings.

Quiz |Coiiect answeis aie )1 )'#6)*(.j

Subject IB: _____________
Session: _____________

1. Buiing oiuei entiy you piess B0Y in iesponse to a piice of 8.S2 anu SELL in
iesponse to a piice of 7.89. What will happen to youi oiueis foi that peiiou.
a. They'll be enteieu as usual
3+ >4&FI66 3& *#1*&6&2

2. Buiing oiuei entiy the highest piice to which you iesponu B0Y is 16.78 anu
the lowest piice to which you iesponu SELL is 17.22. The maiket piice is
16.S6 foi that peiiou. You will:
a. B0Y one unit at 16.78
3+ JKL 51& 81)' #' ,D+CD
c. SELL one unit at 16.S6
u. SELL one unit at 17.22
e. Not tiaue

S. You have 2uu units of CASB at the stait of a tiauing peiiou anu no ST0CK.
You uo not tiaue that peiiou. Bow much CASB uo you have at the beginning
of the next peiiou.
a. 2uu
b. 2uS
*+ /,M
u. 19u

4. Youi account has S ST0CK anu 1uu CASB at the stait of a tiauing peiiou, anu
you uo not B0Y oi SELL uuiing that peiiou. The uiviuenu foi that iounu is
1.uu. Bow much CASB uo you have at the stait of the next iounu.
a. 1uS
3+ ,,M
c. 1uu
u. 114

S. Aftei the final tiauing peiiou, you have 4 iemaining units of ST0CK. The
maiket piice in the final peiiou is 29. Bow many units of expeiiment CASB
uo you ieceive in exchange foi youi ST0CK.
a. 4
b. 29
*+ CD
u. 116

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