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9/25/14, 11:24 AM Trend Evolution: 3D Printing Trends (Part 1) - 3D Printing Industry
Page 4 of 19 http://3dprintingindustry.com/2014/02/24/trend-evolution-3d-printing-trends-part-1/
IMAGE CREDIT: European Space Agency, SOURCE: The Living Earth
The rate of technological progress is increasing. This is a concept that many are
now familiar with, but it seems that the acceleration of rate of change of
technology is a phenomena that many !nd di$cult to cognitively and emotionally
process: an exponential trend that de!es our linear perception of time. Put
another way, humans are walking up a hill that is getting steeper ever more
quickly. The hill is technology. The stress of modern life is primarily because of
this, directly and indirectly. A factor in this is the exponential growth of
computing, a central techeme in 3D printing technologies.
IMAGE CREDIT: The Law Of Accelerated Returns, by Ray Kurzweil
IMAGE CREDIT: SOURCE
From an economic perspective, the rate of adaption of new consumer
technologies is a central concept to understanding what sells, why it sells and
how to sell it. Whereas it took 50 years for a 90%+ adoption of electricity in the
USA, it took 30 years for 90%+ adoption of the refrigerator and just 15 years for
a 90%+ adoption of the internet in US homes. The spread of the smartphone has
been even quicker, and so on. Where does home and industrial 3D printing !t
into this trend? I will contextualise 3D printing within the bounds of disruptive
technologies next, then onto 3D printing in detail.
It is within the terminology of disruptive technology that we often hear about
3D printing and additive manufacturing. Here follows a shortlist of the key
disruptive technologies within the next decade, by estimation of global economic
impact in USD, sourced from McKinsey & Company:
Mobile Internet: 3.7 10.8 trillion
Automation of Knowledge Work: 5.2 6.7 trillion
Internet of Things: 2.7 6.2 trillion
Cloud Technology: 1.7 6.2 trillion
Advanced Robotics: 1.7 4.5 trillion
Near / Full Autonomous Vehicles: 0.2 1.9 trillion
Next Generation Genomics: 0.7 -1.6 trillion
Energy Storage: 100 600 billion
3D Printing: 200 600 billion
Advanced Materials: 200 500 billion
Advanced Oil & Gas: 100 500 billion
Renewable Energy 200 -300 billion
When we note that 3D printing has an estimated global market worth potentially
double that of renewable energy, and greater than new gas and oil exploration
and extraction, the size of the predicted impact of 3D printing becomes evident.
Whilst the Internet of Things is an example of a disruptive technology some ten
times the economic impact of 3D printing, this should be of little surprise, as,
simply put, 3D printing is a way of making a proportion of things, whereas the
Internet of Things is a network of almost all made things.
I choose this example as there will be a measure of crossover between 3D
printing both in the guise of industrial additive manufacturing and personal
desktop 3D printing and the Internet of Things. Previously I have articulated in
articles that I believe we will witness a possible set of de!nitions of networks
within the overall Web Of Everything. 3D printing o#ers a makernet, a set of
intertwined maker social networks; 3D !le repositories; and home manufactured
devices, a larger than average number of them opensource, that are printed
with smart components enabling connectivity and big data potentiality that may
be considered a crossover with the Internet of Things.
This latter phenomena will, if my prediction proves accurate, be based upon the
Arduino and Raspeberry Pi boards already popular with makers, sensory
components and internet connectivity components that o#er a huge potential in
personalisation. A counter thesis is the limitations of shared data and
connectivity that will result from personalisation, but, in turn, this creates the
oppportunity for platform owners such as Apple, Google, Microsoft and now
Samsung to o#er a broader range of SDKs to app developers, and App
developers to o#er ever more customisable apps for their smartphone, tablet
and smart TV consumers.
Whilst we are currently experiencing the peak of hype for 3D printing, the
potential for this remarkable sub-set of technologies is vast, and, perhaps as
much as, or more than, other disruptive technologies, that potential is di$cult to
predict, because whilst oil and gas exploration has a set of variables that are
based upon technology, those technologies are con!ned to fairly speci!c
operational bounds and desired outcome scenarios. For 3D printing, almost any
existing product sector could be disrupted, almost anyone can become involved,
and almost any potential set of outcome scenarios may emerge, though
con!ned to limiting variables that we will look at shortly.

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9/25/14, 11:24 AM Trend Evolution: 3D Printing Trends (Part 1) - 3D Printing Industry

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