THE DAILY BRIEF

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Tuesday 12.15.2009

CURRENT MARKET SENTIMENT

Having traded within a tight trading range of front of the Fed’s meeting, thus limiting the
45 points all day, the indices struggled to upside despite positive economic data. No
finish higher at 10501 (Dow) and 1114 (S&P). selling pressure and the money manager’s late
Today the same may follow given that entry to dress up the end of year balance sheet
investors are unlikely to take any position in may drift the market a bit down.

PRISM CALL

Dubai’s Bailout effect only lasted one day as fear of further trouble may be brewing for the future.
Stock specific is the best possible play as investors await the Fed. Once again, volume may be light
and volatility zero. Don’t over trade given that there is limited trade.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR INDU & SPUZ TECHNICALS

TIME INDICATOR RANGE EXPECTATION PRIOR ACTUAL INDICES S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2

8:30 Producer Price 0.3% to INDU
0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 10452 10469 10496 10522 10539
am Index (MoM) 1.6%
(DOW)
8:30 PPI Ex Food & -0.1% to SPUZ
0.2% -0.6% 0.5%
am Energy (MoM) 0.4% (S&P) 1105 1108 1112 1117 1119
8:30 Producer Price 1.2% to
1.8% -1.9% 2.4%
am Index (YoY) 2.4%

8:30 PPI Ex Food & 0.6% to

0.9% 0.7% 1.2%
am Energy (YoY) 1.1%

8:30 Empire 15.60 to

24.00 23.51 2.55
am Manufacturing 30.00

9:15 Industrial 0.0% to

0.5% 0.1%
am Production 0.9%

9:15 Capacity 70.6% to

71.2% 70.7%
am Utilization 72.0%

1:00 NAHB Housing

17 to 20 18 17
pm Market Index

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purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Any person who chooses to use this information as a basis for their trading assumes all the liability and risk for themselves and hereby and absolutely
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otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.
 FOREIGN MARKETS NEWS

BK Bank of NY Mellon CEO Kelly

MARKET PRICE
 %
tells employess he's not going to
Bank of American - WSJ
FTSE 5250.82 64.52 -1.21
(27.04 +0.10)
DAX 5752.21 50.05 -0.86
VLO Valero Renewables to
HANG SENG 21813.92 271.83 -1.23 purchase three ethanol plants
(16.79 +0.18)
NIKKEI 10083.48 22.20 -0.22

WFC Wells Fargo to repay entire

CHINA 3274.46 28.444 -0.86 $25 bln TARP investment;
announces $10.4 bln common stock
offering (25.49 +0.08)
DOW STOCKS TO WATCH COMMODITY PRICES
XOM Exxon Mobil: Fitch reports
STRONG WEAK COMMODITY PRICE
 that XOM's Ratings unaffected by
announced XTO acquisition
JPM CVX (69.69 -3.14)
OIL 69.87 0.36
MCD TRV WFC Deutsche Bank thinks bank
stock relative performance should
HPQ WMT
GOLD 1115.4 8.40 improve going forward- upgrades
HD BA BBT and WFC

JASO JA Solar announces a $75

mln share repurchase program
UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES (5.30 )

WY Weyerhaeuser announces
STOCKS UPGRADED
intent to elect REIT status; timing
BROKERAGE under consideration (42.51 )
COMPANY RATINGS CHANGE PRICE TARGET
FIRM
3M (MMM) Argus Hold » Buy $91 China government says to improve
measures controlling property
Palm (PALM) MKM Partners Neutral » Buy
market – DJ
Wells Fargo (WFC) Keefe Bruyette Underperform » Mkt Perform $24 » $28
XTO XTO Energy valuation implies
Aruba Networks (ARUN) Needham Hold » Buy higher revaluation for E&P
unconventional peers - FBR Capital
Arcelor Mittal (MT) UBS Neutral » Buy (47.86 )
News Corp (NWS) Deutsche Bank Hold » Buy $13 » $16
UK Treasury official says no
concerns on UK rating; savings
STOCKS DOWNGRADED
ratio normal – DJ
BROKERAGE
COMPANY RATINGS CHANGE PRICE TARGET
FIRM CELG Celgene says positive Phase
XTO Energy (XTO) RBC Capital Mkts Outperform » Sector Perform $51 IIb topline clinical data for Celgene
El Paso Pipline Partners Ladenburg oral compound Apremilast reported
Buy » Neutral $17 for patients with moderate-to-
(EPB) Thalmann
American Electric $36 »
severe psoriasis (53.88 )
Jefferies & Co Buy » Hold
(AEP) $37.50

Honeywell (HON) HSBC Securities Neutral » Underweight $55 » $36

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 EARNINGS

LEA Lear tgt raised to $84 at Deutsche Bank following meeting with mgmt (63.00 )

OSK Oshkosh Truck: Announcement is just noise and OSK is still well positioned on the FMTV contract
- Credit Suisse (36.32 )
CVC Cablevision tgt raised to $30 at Wunderlich; firm notes MSG spin-off is now slated for Q1 (25.98 )

U.S. Chain store sales increased 0.35% in Dec 12 week vs -1.3% in prior week, according to
ICSC/Goldman Sachs

ESRX Express Scripts initiated with a Buy at BB&T Capital Mkts; tgt $108 (88.02 )

ASH Ashland to sell wood rosin and terpenes business to TorQuest Partners (39.93 )

COCO 3 year CDR rates for education group out yesterday were relatively weak, but not surprising -
Credit Suisse (14.08 )

ABC AmerisourceBergen expects FY10 diluted EPS to be at high end of prior range of $1.82-$1.92 vs.
$1.91 consensus

WFC Wells Fargo will combine its asset-based lending units (25.49 +0.08)

WLP WellPoint expects to reaffirm FY09 EPS guidance (56.68 +1.17)

PZZA reaffirms 2009 EPS guidance in-line, sees 2010 EPS guidance in-line

PZZA reaffirms 2009 EPS of $1.42-1.46 vs. $1.47 consensus, guides 2010 EPS of $1.70-1.90 vs. $1.74
consensus

HXM Homex Development sees FY10 rev growth of 12-14%; consensus calls for 16% revenue growth
(over the FY09 consensus; 4Q09 has yet to be reported) (37.07 )

MGLN Magellan Health raises guidance for FY09 (Dec), sees EPS of $2.77-2.95 vs. $2.61 First Call
consensus (36.82 )

BBY Best Buy prelim $0.53 vs $0.43 First Call consensus; revs $12.02 bln vs $11.98 bln First Call
consensus

BBY Best Buy raises FY10 rev and EPS guidance

BBY Best Buy sees FY10 EPS of $3.00-3.15 vs $2.96 First Call consensus, up from 2.70-3.00

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 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Symbol S7 S6 S5 S4 S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7
Sectors
SPX 1098.40 1101.04 1102.67 1105.32 1107.96 1108.78 1109.59 1112.24 1114.88 1115.70 1116.51 1119.16 1121.80 1123.43 1126.08
INDU 10408.90 10425.47 10435.71 10452.28 10468.85 10473.97 10479.07 10495.66 10512.26 10517.35 10522.47 10539.04 10555.61 10565.85 10582.42
NDX 1771.81 1778.10 1781.98 1788.26 1794.55 1796.49 1798.42 1804.71 1811.01 1812.94 1814.88 1821.16 1827.45 1831.33 1837.61
XBD 109.47 109.99 110.31 110.82 111.34 111.50 111.66 112.17 112.69 112.85 113.01 113.52 114.04 114.36 114.87
BKX 42.34 42.58 42.73 42.97 43.21 43.29 43.36 43.60 43.84 43.92 43.99 44.23 44.47 44.62 44.86
TRAN 3993.97 4022.38 4039.92 4068.32 4096.73 4105.50 4114.23 4142.67 4171.11 4179.85 4188.62 4217.02 4245.43 4262.97 4291.37
OIX 655.20 658.73 660.91 664.44 667.97 669.06 670.14 673.68 677.21 678.30 679.39 682.92 686.45 688.63 692.16
OSX 181.26 182.50 183.27 184.52 185.76 186.15 186.53 187.78 189.02 189.41 189.79 191.04 192.28 193.05 194.30
XNG 466.00 475.74 481.75 491.48 501.22 504.22 507.22 516.96 526.71 529.70 532.71 542.44 552.18 558.19 567.92
CYC 786.21 791.86 795.35 801.00 806.65 808.39 810.13 815.79 821.44 823.18 824.93 830.58 836.23 839.72 845.37
UTY 419.25 420.88 421.89 423.53 425.16 425.67 426.17 427.81 429.44 429.95 430.45 432.09 433.72 434.73 436.37
DRG 303.79 304.95 305.66 306.81 307.97 308.32 308.68 309.83 310.99 311.34 311.70 312.85 314.01 314.72 315.87
RLX 404.42 406.41 407.63 409.61 411.60 412.21 412.82 414.80 416.79 417.40 418.01 419.99 421.98 423.20 425.18

Tradeables

SPY 110.49 110.73 110.88 111.12 111.36 111.43 111.51 111.75 111.99 112.06 112.14 112.38 112.62 112.77 113.01
DIA 104.25 104.42 104.53 104.71 104.88 104.94 104.99 105.17 105.34 105.40 105.45 105.63 105.80 105.91 106.09
QQQQ 43.63 43.78 43.88 44.04 44.19 44.24 44.29 44.45 44.60 44.65 44.70 44.86 45.01 45.11 45.27
QLD 53.89 54.28 54.52 54.91 55.30 55.42 55.54 55.93 56.32 56.44 56.56 56.95 57.34 57.58 57.97
IWM 57.99 58.53 58.86 59.40 59.94 60.11 60.27 60.81 61.35 61.51 61.68 62.22 62.75 63.09 63.62
OIH 113.25 113.73 114.02 114.50 114.98 115.13 115.27 115.75 116.23 116.38 116.52 117.00 117.48 117.77 118.25
XLE 55.29 55.47 55.58 55.75 55.93 55.98 56.04 56.21 56.39 56.44 56.50 56.67 56.85 56.96 57.13
FAZ 18.37 18.67 18.86 19.17 19.47 19.57 19.66 19.97 20.27 20.37 20.46 20.77 21.07 21.26 21.57
FAS 67.57 68.62 69.27 70.32 71.37 71.70 72.02 73.07 74.13 74.45 74.77 75.82 76.87 77.52 78.57
SRS 7.06 7.22 7.33 7.49 7.65 7.71 7.76 7.92 8.08 8.14 8.19 8.35 8.51 8.62 8.78
SDS 34.52 34.67 34.76 34.92 35.07 35.12 35.16 35.32 35.47 35.52 35.56 35.72 35.87 35.96 36.12
USO 34.90 35.04 35.12 35.26 35.40 35.44 35.48 35.62 35.76 35.80 35.84 35.98 36.12 36.20 36.34
SKF 23.35 23.60 23.76 24.02 24.27 24.35 24.43 24.69 24.94 25.02 25.10 25.36 25.61 25.77 26.03

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