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PERMUTATIONS AND COMBINATIONS

The number of permutations of r objects, taken from

a set of n distinct objects without replacement is

given by

n

r

n!

P =

(n-r)!

The number of permutation of r objects, taken from a

set of n distinct objects with replacement is given by

n

r

The number of permutations of n distinct objects in a

circle is given by

(n-1)!

The number of possible combinations of r objects,

taken from a set of n distinct objects without

replacement is given by

n

r

n!

C =

(n-r)!r!

PROBABILITY

PROBABI L I TY

For two events A and B,

P(A B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A B)

P(A)=P(A B)+P(A B')

MUTUAL EXCLUSI VI TY

Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same

time. For two mutually exclusive events, E

1

and E

2

,

1 2 1 2

P(E E )=P(E )+P(E )

CONDI TI ONAL PROBABI L I TY

P(A B)

P(A|B)=

P(B)

I NDEPENDENCE

Independent events are events the occurrences of

which do not influence the probability of the

occurrence of the other event.

For independent events,

P(A|B)=P(A) or P(B|A)=P(B)

P(A B)=P(A)P(B)

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Statistics Summary

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RANDOM VARIABLES

For any random variable X,

The expectation, , is given by

E(X)= xP(X=x)

and E(aXbY) = aE(X) bE(Y)

The variance is given by

2

2

Var(X)=E[(X-) ]= (x-) P(X=x)

and Var(aXbY)=a

2

Var(X) + b

2

Var(Y)

The standard deviation, , is given by

= Var(X)

CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES

NORMAL DI STRI BUTI ON

For a random variable X modelled by a normal

distribution with mean and standard deviation

X~N(,

2

)

STANDARD NORMAL VARI ABL E

Letting X~N(,

2

), the standard normal variable Z is

defined as

x-

Z= ~N(0,1) and

P(Xx) =

x-

P(Z )

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

BI NOMI AL DI STRI BUTI ON

For a random variable X modelled by a binomial

distribution with n trials and probability of success, p

X~B(n,p)

Its probability distribution is given by

P(X=x)=

n

C

x

p

x

(1-p)

n-x

Its mean and variance are given by

E(X) = np

Var(X) = np(1-p)

POI SSON DI STRI BUTI ON

For a random variable X modelled by a Poisson

distribution with parameter

X~Po()

Its probability distribution is given by

- x

e

P(X=x)=

x!

Its mean and variance are given by

E(X) = Var(X) =

Note also that for two Poisson random variables

X~Po(

1

) and Y~Po(

2

),

X+Y~Po(

1

+

2

)

APPROXIMATIONS

Approximations marked are to be continuity corrected

BI NOMI AL TO POI SSON

For X~B(n,p)

If n is large (n > 50) and p is small (p < 0.1) such that

np < 5, then X~Po(np)

BI NOMI AL TO NORMAL

For X~B(n,p)

In is large such that np > 5 and n(1-p) > 5, then

X~N(np,np(1-p))

POI SSON TO NORMAL

For X~Po()

If > 10, then X~N(, )

CONTI NUI TY CORRECTI ON

These are the ranges, for given probability

distribution functions, to consider when

approximating discrete random variables to

continuous random variables.

P(Xa)

P(X<a) P(x=a) P(X>a)

P(Xa)

a-1 a a+1

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SAMPLING

SAMPL E MEAN

The sample mean from a normal population

of sample size n with mean and variance

2

is given by

2

X~N(, )

n

CENTRAL L I MI T THEOREM

The central limit theorem states that, for a

non-normal population with sample size n,

2

X~N(, )

n

approximately, if n is large (50).

UNBI ASED ESTI MATOR OF SAMPL E MEAN

For any sample size n taken from a population with an

unknown mean , the unbiased estimator of is given by

x (x-a)

x= = + a

n n

where a is a constant

UNBI ASED ESTI MATOR OF SAMPL E VARI ANCE

For any sample size n taken from a population with an

unknown mean

2

, the unbiased estimator of

2

is given by

( )

2

2 2 2

x

1 1

s = x - = (x-x)

n-1 n n-1

( )

2

2

(x-a)

1

= (x-a) -

n-1 n

where a is a constant

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

CONDUCTI NG A HYPOTHESI S TEST

Step 1: State the null and alternative hypotheses H

0

and H

1

Step 2: State the significance level,

Step 3: Determine the test statistic to use and its distribution

Step 4: Calculate the p-value for the test statistic

Step 5: Indicate whether or not to reject H

0

based on the evidence from the sample

H

0

is rejected if p-value <

H

0

is not rejected if p-value >

TEST STATI STI CS

Normal Population Non-normal Population

2

known

2

unknown

2

known

2

unknown

Sample size is large

n50

2

X~N(, )

n

2

s

X~N(, )

n

by the CLT

2

X~N(, )

n

by the CLT

2

s

X~N(, )

n

Test Statistic Z-test Z-test Z-test Z-test

Sample size is small

2

X~N(, )

n

T~t(n-1)

Test statistic Z-test t-test

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