Matthew Schultz

12/8/2009

Marquette University

Analysis of
Gambling
Patterns for
Prominent
Casino Games
MEEN 2426 – Engineering Statistics – Dr. Richard
Marklin
 I. Introduction
Gambling is an addiction that affects many people nationwide. People will

even plan entire vacations around casinos. Some people even choose to

make their living off of gambling. Success in this field is generally measured

by the amount of money that a person wins. Since life is measured by time,

it is logical to include a chronological basis to a gambling analysis. Like a

career economy, gambling can be broken down to amount of money attained

per hour of work. However, casinos would not stay in business for long if the

majority of players earned a profit from their stay. Therefore I will analyze

the amount of loss compared to time of play for three prominent house

games. My hypothesis is that a person’s overall loss is greater when playing

four hours or more compared to less than four hours.

II. Games Background

Blackjack

The most widely played game at a local casino is Blackjack. In this game

each player is dealt two cards face up and the dealer is dealt two cards with

only one face up. The players will be asked in turn whether or not they

would like another card. The object is to get the sum of your cards as close
to 21 as possible without going over while still beating the dealer’s hand.

Each number card counts as that number and each face card is a ten. An

ace can be played as 1 or 11 depending on how it affects the sum. Blackjack

is the casino’s most abundant game and table stakes range from $5

minimum to $25 minimum. Blackjack has a house edge of around 0.6%

meaning on average the house takes a 0.6 cent profit from each dollar

played.

Craps

Arguably the most exciting and fast paced game in the casino is Craps.

This game is played with two six-sided dice. In each round, the dice are

rolled simultaneously and the numbers showing face up when they land are

added together to get a number. The object of the game is to roll the

number that a player has placed a wager on. Statistics is a very large part of

craps due to the varying probabilities of rolling each number. Bets can be

made that a certain number will roll, but also that it will not roll. They can

also be made that a number will be rolled with a specific landing, such as two

4’s or a six and a five. Overall there are over 30 separate bets that can be

made at any given time on a craps game. Craps has the lowest house edge

in the casino of about 0.25%.

Baccarat
 The casino’s most prominent high-stakes game is an Asian game called

Baccarat. It is similar to blackjack in that it is played with cards that are

summed to get a number. However, instead of playing your hand against

the dealer’s a player can bet on one of two arbitrary hands that are both

dealt face up in the middle of the table. For each hand the value of the cards

are added together to make a one-digit number. If the cards add up to a

number ten or greater, the first digit is dropped; hence a 12 is actually 2.

The object of the game is to bet on the hand that is closest to nine. Baccarat

has a house edge of about 1%.

III. Hypothesis

As a dealer of the games mentioned above, I’ve noticed anecdotally that

the players who stay about four hours or more tend to lose more than the

players who play for less than four hours. I think the reason for this is that a

player wants to leave with a profit or at least even with what they started.

Since each game has a certain house edge, most players are at a

disadvantage and are always trying to win back money they have already

lost. When all their purchased chips have been lost they will buy more in the

hopes of winning back what they lost. Often times, a player will not even be

happy breaking even, so they will continue to play once they have won their

money back in order to try winning extra. This is why I believe that losses

are greater with longer play times. The hypothesis to be tested is that
players’ losses are greater from 4 hours or more of play compared to less

than 4 hours of play.

IV. Data

The data that I’ve compiled is from my experience dealing. I kept track of

buy-ins, hours played, and amount of chips at departure. From this I can

analyze a time based performance for each player. The following is the data

I have collected:

Over
all
Play
Gross Table Time Gross at Net at
Cash-in stakes (hrs) Depart Depart Game
500 25-1000 0.25 1200 700 BJ
200 10-200 1.5 0 -200 BJ
225 25-1000 2 100 -125 BJ
310 10-200 2 300 -10 BJ
140 10-200 2 400 260 BJ
220 10-200 2.5 0 -220 BJ
200 25-1000 2.5 0 -200 BJ
160 10-200 2.5 250 90 BJ
220 10-200 3 400 180 BJ
250 10-200 3 1000 750 BJ
160 10-200 3.5 200 40 BJ
400 25-1000 3.5 1000 600 BJ
800 10-200 4 400 -400 BJ
1100 10-200 4.5 0 -1100 BJ
280 10-200 4.5 0 -280 BJ
800 25-1000 5 0 -800 BJ
 500 10-200 5 0 -500 BJ
12000 25-1000 6 10000 -2000 BJ
400 10-200 7 0 -400 BJ
100 10-1000 0.5 300 200 Craps
300 5-1000 1 550 250 Craps
200 5-1000 2 0 -200 Craps
1500 10-1000 2 1500 0 Craps
200 5-1000 2.5 250 50 Craps
200 5-1000 2.5 300 100 Craps
300 5-1000 3 0 -300 Craps
160 5-1000 3 300 140 Craps
230 10-1000 3 800 570 Craps
400 5-1000 4.5 0 -400 Craps
40 10-1000 5 0 -40 Craps
200 5-1000 5.5 0 -200 Craps
200 10-1000 6 0 -200 Craps
60 5-1000 7 40 -20 Craps
300 5-1000 8 0 -300 Craps
400 10-1000 12 300 -100 Craps
120 10-1000 13 500 380 Craps

Over
all
Play
Gross Table Time Gross at Net at
Cash-in stakes (hrs) Depart Depart Game
Baccar
800 25-2000 1.5 0 -800 at
Baccar
1200 25-2000 2 0 -1200 at
Baccar
500 25-2000 2 500 0 at
Baccar
750 25-2000 2.5 600 -150 at
Baccar
200 25-2000 2.5 500 300 at
Baccar
1500 25-2000 3 3000 1500 at
Baccar
300 25-2000 3.5 300 0 at
Baccar
400 25-2000 4 700 300 at
 Baccar
2000 25-2000 5 2000 0 at
Baccar
2500 25-2000 6 0 -2500 at
Baccar
1000 25-2000 6 0 -1000 at
Baccar
800 25-2000 6.5 500 -300 at
Baccar
2750 25-2000 7 0 -2750 at
Baccar
5000 25-2000 8 0 -5000 at
V. Summary Statistics
Overall <4 hr >4hr
Blackjack Hours Net Win Loss Net Net
Number of
Samples 19 19 7 12 12 7
- -
519.5 155.4 782.8
Mean 3.38 -190.26 374.29 8 2 6
556.2 353.7 606.6
Std Dev 1.66 644.50 300.44 0 4 8
- -
220.0 280.0
Max 7.00 750.00 40.00 -10.00 0 0
- -
2000. 750.0 2000.
Min 0.25 -2000.00 750.00 00 0 00
- -
340.0 500.0
Median 3.00 -200.00 260.00 0 65.00 0
Craps
Number of
Samples 17 17 8 9 9 8
- -
195.5 110.0
Mean 4.74 -4.12 211.25 6 90.00 0
126.4 254.1 235.9
Std Dev 3.58 259.28 187.80 0 2 2
570.0 380.0
Max 13.00 570.00 570.00 -20.00 0 0
- -
400.0 400.0
Min 0.50 -400.00 0.00 0 0.00 0
- -
200.0 100.0 150.0
Median 3.00 -20.00 170.00 0 0 0
Baccarat
Number of
Samples 14 14 6 8 7 7
- -
1712. 1607.
Mean 4.25 -828.57 350.00 50 -50.00 14
1627. 858.7 1911.
Std Dev 2.14 1636.68 582.24 61 8 03
 -
150.0 1500. 300.0
Max 8.00 1500.00 1500.00 0 00 0
- - -
1500. 1200. 5000.
Min 1.50 -5000.00 0.00 00 00 00
- -
1100. 1000.
Median 3.75 -225.00 150.00 00 0.00 00

VI. Graphing

VII. Hypothesis Testing

To test the hypothesis, the null is set so that the mean of the Net for less

than 4 hours of play is less than or equal to the mean for 4 hours or more.

The alternate is that the mean for less than 4 hours is greater than the mean

for 4 hours or more. This gives a one-tailed hypothesis test and should show

that players who gamble for less than 4 hours tend to have a better win/loss

than players who gamble for 4 hours or more.

HO: µ ≤ µo

HA: µ > µo

t = X – µo
s/√n

Blackja p-value << p-value ≈

0.0005Crap 0.02Baccar
ck
s at
µo = -782.86

X = 155.42 µo = -110.00 µo = -1607.14

S = 353.74 X = 90.00 X = -50.00

N = 12 S = 254.12 S = 858.78

t = 9.19 N=9 N=7

t = 2.36 t = 4.8

p-value ≈

0.002
 VIII.Discussion

By looking at the test statistics it seems pretty obvious that the average

player does much better in less than 4 hours when compared to 4 hours or

more. With blackjack and craps it even seems that a player will likely leave

with a profit as long as they play less than 4 hours. With Baccarat, however,

they just tend to lose less than those who play over 4 hours. These statistics

make sense because Blackjack and Craps have a much smaller house edge

than Baccarat. Craps which has the smallest house edge out of any house

game in the casino actually shows a nearly even net for the entire sample.

Some other interesting statistics are that the mean profit of winners is

between $200 and $400, the mean playing time on craps and baccarat is

over 4 hours, and more than half of all players leave with a net loss. Also,

assuming that the population follows the trend lines on the graph of Net

Win/Loss vs. Hours Played, a player will probably be a winner when leaving

before3 hours.

From the hypothesis test, it has been shown that the null hypothesis can

easily be rejected for all three games since a p-value of 0.1 is a good cutoff

for rejection. This means that the hypothesis is highly plausible and it is very

likely that all players are better off playing for less than 4 hours.

Furthermore, the test for blackjack shows a near certainty of the hypothesis.
 IX. Conclusion

In summary, one can see how casinos stay open all-day, all-year. Casino

games offer a level of excitement and hope that is rarely found elsewhere.

On any given day at any given time a person can walk into a casino and have

a chance to turn a little money into a lot of money without actually doing any

work. Some people give credit to luck, while others like to base their success

on skill or intuition and either way they look at it, they will probably enjoy

their stay. However, if you ever find yourself in a casino, keep this analysis

in mind. More often than not you will lose money and you should almost

expect that outcome, but there’s no fun in that. If you accept that and still

want to play, might I suggest sticking to Craps and Blackjack, and if you

happen to notice you’ve been there for almost 4 hours…make way to the

nearest exit!

X. References

Navidi, William, Statistics for Engineers and Scientists, 2nd Edition,

McGraw-Hill, 2008.