_______________

SELZER & COMPANY

PAGE 1
THE IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2105
800 Iowa adults, September 21-24, 2014
including 546 likely voters in the 2014 general election Weighted by age, sex,
Margin of error for general population: 3.5 percentage points and congressional district
Margin of error for likely 2014 voters: 4.2 percentage points

How likely is it you will vote in the November general election for governor, U.S. Senate and other officeswill you
definitely vote, probably vote, might or might not vote, or probably not vote, or have you already cast a ballot in early
voting?


Already
Voted
Definitely
Vote
Probably
Vote
Might or
might not
Vote
Probably not
Vote
Refused/
Not sure

3 61 15 8 12 1

In general, do you think things in the nation are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?


Right
direction
Wrong
track
Not
sure

23 65 12

What about here in Iowa? Do you think things in the state are headed in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the
wrong track?


Right
direction
Wrong
track
Not
sure

55 31 14

Im going to mention some elected officials. For each, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way each is
handling his job. (Rotate list.)
Approve Disapprove
Not
Sure

Terry Branstad as governor 51 38 11

I'm going to mention the names of some candidates running for statewide office. For each name I read, please tell me if
your feelings toward the person are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you
dont know the person, just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list. Asked only of likely 2014 voters, n=546. Margin
of error for likely voters: 4.2 percentage points.)


Very
Favorable
Mostly
Favorable
Mostly
Unfavorable
Very
Unfavorable
Not
Sure

Bruce Braley, a U.S. congressman and
Democrat running for U.S. Senate
17 25 20 22 16
Joni Ernst, a state senator and Republican
running for U.S. Senate
21 24 15 29 11
Jack Hatch, a state senator and Democrat
running for governor
9 25 18 19 29
Terry Branstad, the current Republican
governor running for reelection
25 30 20 23 2

_______________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 2
If the election for governor were held today and the candidates listed on the ballot were as follows, for whom would you
vote? (Rotate candidate names. Asked only of likely 2014 voters, n=546. Margin of error for likely voters: 4.2 percentage points.)

48 Terry Branstad for the Republicans
Ask b, then continue
34 Jack Hatch for the Democrats
1 Jonathan Narcisse for the Iowa Party
3 Lee Deakins Hieb for the Libertarian Party
2 Jim Hennager for the New Independent Party Iowa
2 None of these/someone else (VOL)
Skip b and continue
10 Not sure

Would you say your mind is made up to vote for (GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE NAMED) or
could you still be persuaded to vote for another candidate? (Asked only of likely 2014 voters who selected a
candidate listed in the previous question; MoE: 4.4 percentage points. MoE for Branstad supporters: 5.9 percentage
points. MoE for Hatch supporters: 7.2 percentage points. )

Likely
Voters who
Selected a
Candidate
Branstad
Supporters
Hatch
Supporters




n=489 n=278 n=185

68 71 69 Mind is made up
30 27 30 Could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate
2 2 1 Not sure

If the election for U.S. Senator were held today and the candidates listed on the ballot were as follows, for whom would
you vote? (Rotate candidate names.)

38 Bruce Braley for the Democrats
Ask b and c, then continue
44 Joni Ernst for the Republicans
- Bob Quast for Bob Quast for Term Limits
2 Rick Stewart, Independent
1 Douglas Butzier for the Libertarian Party
2 Ruth Smith, no party
1 None of these/someone else(VOL)
Skip b and c and continue
12 Not sure

Would you say your mind is made up to vote for (U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE NAMED) or could you
still be persuaded to vote for another candidate? (Asked only of likely 2014 voters who selected a candidate listed
in the previous question; MoE: 4.5 percentage points. MoE for Braley supporters: 6.8 percentage points. MoE for
Ernst supporters: 6.2 percentage points. )

Likely
Voters who
Selected a
Candidate
Braley
Supporters
Ernst
Supporters


n=476 n=206 n=247

67 72 69 Mind is made up
31 27 29 Could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate
2 1 2 Not sure


_______________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 3

Are you voting more for the persons individual qualifications or more to elect that persons party to the
office? (Asked only of likely 2014 voters who selected a candidate listed in the previous question; MoE: 4.5 percentage
points. MoE for Braley supporters: 6.8 percentage points. MoE for Ernst supporters: 6.2 percentage points. )

Likely
Voters who
Selected a
Candidate
Braley
Supporters
Ernst
Supporters


n=476 n=206 n=247

72 70 73 Voting more for persons individual qualifications
21 22 20 Voting more for the party
7 8 7 Not sure

(Rotate Ernst and Braley criticism questions.)
Im going to mention some criticisms people have made about Joni Ernst. For each, please tell me if you think this is a
big problem, a little problem, or not a problem at all. If you think the statement is not true, just say so. (Rotate list.)


Big
Problem
Little
Problem
Not a
Problem
Not
True
Not
Sure

Joni Ernst has been groomed by the
Koch brothers, two billionaire
industrialists
LV 39 10 19 19 13

Ernst supp 7 13 36 34 10
Joni Ernst says she supports the
renewable fuel standard, which
mandates use of biofuels, but also
has said she philosophically opposes
subsidies
LV 23 24 31 9 13

Ernst supp 6 24 47 13 10
Joni Ernst was endorsed by Sarah
Palin, former candidate for U.S. Vice
President
LV 30 14 47 3 6

Ernst supp 3 13 78 4 2
Joni Ernst has discussed privatizing
Social Security as an option to ensure
its solvency
LV 41 15 29 7 8

Ernst supp 8 18 53 14 7

Im going to mention some criticisms people have made about Bruce Braley. For each, please tell me if you think this is
a big problem, a little problem, or not a problem at all. If you think the statement is not true, just say so. (Rotate list.)


Big
Problem
Little
Problem
Not a
Problem
Not
True
Not
Sure

Bruce Braley questioned whether
Chuck Grassley is qualified to chair
the Senate Judiciary Committee since
he is a farmer and not a lawyer
LV 37 18 29 11 5

Braley supp 17 20 45 13 5
Bruce Braley missed a large
percentage of the congressional
committee hearings on veterans
affairs
LV 50 16 14 12 8

Braley supp 20 20 27 25 8
Bruce Braley represents the failures
of the Obama Administration
LV 34 13 16 29 8

Braley supp 7 8 27 53 5
Bruce Braley has claimed to be a part
of final negotiations in crafting the
Affordable Care Act, also known as
Obamacare
LV 44 15 28 4 9

Braley supp 13 13 58 7 9


_______________
SELZER & COMPANY
PAGE 4

Now here are some statements about Terry Branstad and Jack Hatch, who are competing in the governors race. Again,
tell me if you think this is a big problem, a little problem, or not a problem at all. If you think the statement is not true,
just say so. (Rotate list.)


Big
Problem
Little
Problem
Not a
Problem
Not
True
Not
Sure

Terry Branstad has a pattern of
cronyismhelping his friends get a
leg up and working to remove people
from government who disagree with
him.
LV 44 20 12 17 7

Branstad
supp
16 28 18 29 9
Jack Hatch has a pattern of mixing
politics with businesshelping pass
legislation that created tax credits his
business used on new housing
projects.
LV 35 26 16 11 12

Hatch
supp
11 34 27 20 8
Terry Branstad has not made good on
his campaign promises from four
years ago200,000 new jobs have
not been created, average household
income has not risen appreciably,
and he has not cut the size of state
government.
LV 36 23 19 17 5

Branstad
supp
13 30 21 28 8
Jack Hatch has spent his legislative
career representing an urban Des
Moines district and so does not
understand the needs of the entire
state.
LV 28 23 23 17 9

Hatch
supp
9 17 41 27 6


About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Sep. 21-24 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with
800 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers.
Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent Census data.

Questions based on the sample of 800 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the
findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Questions based
on a subsample of 546 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Results based on smaller
samples of respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.