BULLETIN OF CANADIAN PETROLEUM GEOLOGY

VOL. 48, NO. 2 (JUNE, 2000), P. 150-163

Characterizing the spatial distribution of an undiscovered hydrocarbon resource: the Keg
River Reef play, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin
ZHUOHENG CHEN, KIRK OSADETZ, HAIYU GAO, PETER HANNIGAN AND CAMERON WATSON
Geological Survey of Canada
3033- 33 Street NW
Calgary AB
T2L 2A 7
ABSTRACT
Specific maps constructed using integrated exploration history data, geological play characteristics and seismic
prospecting activity are useful for both pet rol eum exploration and resource management . Geoscience data can be com-
bined with exploration results to predict the possible locations and sizes of undiscovered pools in the Middle Devoni an
Keg Ri ver Reef play. The combination of all available information gives a better estimate of pet rol eum occurrence than
any individual data set. A prior probability of hydrocarbon occurrence, estimated using exploration results, can be updat-
ed using key geological elements that reflect factors controlling pools locations and sizes. The analysis of geophysical
survey information and the consideration of exhaustion of undiscovered potential by successful and unsuccessful explo-
ration wells provides a realistic volumetric paramet er that illustrates the space available for undiscovered pools. The
construction of a favorability map, using a combination of the posterior probability map of hydrocarbon occurrence and
the volumetric variable, produces a risk-weighted reservoir space that outlines the possible locations and sizes of undis-
covered pet rol eum resources in a play. The favorability map, itself a useful tool for both hydrocarbon exploration and
pet rol eum resource management , provides a meaningful met hod for describing the spatial distribution of undiscovered
pools and fields predicted using other stochastic resource assessment methods.
R~SUM~
Des cartes sp6cifiques construites en utilisant des donn4es int4gr4es d' hi st oi re d' exp[0ration, les caract4ristiques de
cibles d' expl orat i on g6ologique et l' activit4 de prospection sismique sont utiles pour l ' expl orat i on p6trolihre et la ges-
tion de la ressource. Les donn6es g6oscientifiques peuvent 4tre combin4es avec les r6sultats d' expl orat i on pour prOdire
les localisations possibles et les sites de gisements non-d4couverts dans la cible d' expl orat i on rdcifale de Keg River. La
combinaison de toute l ' i nformat i on disponible donne une meilleure 6valuation de l ' occurrence du p4trole que tout j eux
de donn4es pris individuellement. La probabilitd prdalable de l ' occurrence d' hydrocarbures, estim6e en utilisant les
r6sultats d' expl orat i on, peut Otre mis ~ j our en utilisant des facteurs g6ologique cl4s qui reflhtent les facteurs contr01ant
la localisation et la dimension des gisements. Les analyses de l ' i nformat i on des lev4s g4ophysiques et la consid4ration
de l ' 6pui sement du potentiel non-d6couvert par des puits d' expl orat i on couronn6s de succhs ou non, fournissent un
paramhtre volum6trique r4aliste qui illustre l ' espace disponible pour les gisements non-d6couverts. La construction de
cartes de zone favorables en utilisant une combi nai son de cartes de probabilit4 post4rieure d' occurrence d' hydrocarbu-
res avec la variable volum4trique produisent un espace de r4servoir pond6r4 par le risque, qui dresse l ' 4bauche des
localisations possibles et des dimensions des ressources en p6trole non-d6couvertes dans une cible d' expl orat i on. La
carte de favorabilit4, en elle-mOme un outil utile pour ~t la fois l ' expl orat i on et la gestion des ressources en hydrocarbu-
res, fournit une m6thode significative pour d4crire la distribution spatiale des gisements et champs non-d6couverts qui
sont pr6dit en utilsant d' aut res mdthodes stochastiques d' 6valuation des ressources.
Traduit par Lynn Gagnon
150
CHARACTERIZING SPATIAL DI STRI BUTI ON OF UNDISCOVERED HYDROCARBONS I N THE WCSB 151
INTRODUCTION
Knowl edge of the spatial distribution of pet rol eum
resources is essential for the development of corporate and
public policies for their effective management, economic
analysis, land-use planning, and environmental impact assess-
ment. For the petroleum industry such knowledge is vitally
important for risk avoidance and exploration portfolio man-
agement. To address the demands from both industry and gov-
ernment, several modern methods and models for describing
the spatial characteristics of hydrocarbon resources have been
proposed. These approaches can be categorized into two gen-
eral groups. One is the genetic method, represented by White' s
play mapping techniques (White, 1988; Grant and Thompson,
1996). In this approach, geological factors controlling hydro-
carbon accumulation are mapped and superimposed one onto
another to highlight areas of high potential and low explo-
ration risk. The resulting play summary map is a geological
favorability map that represents an integration of genetic geo-
logical information useful for exploration decision-making.
The second, stochastic group of approaches uses point process
models (Kaufman and Lee, 1992), geostatistical methods (Pan,
1997) and multivariate classification methods (Harff et al. ,
1992). These methods rely primarily on the outcomes of
exploration drilling (see examples from Kaufman and Lee,
1992; Pan, 1997). The results of stochastic methods are dis-
played either as a hydrocarbon occurrence probability map, or
as an exploration uncertainty map. Both are projections of spa-
tial hydrocarbon occurrence patterns based on exploration
results.
At least four types of data carry information regarding the
spatial characteristics of hydrocarbon occurrence in a mature
play. These include 1) geological data; 2) exploration drilling
results; 3) geophysical data; and 4) location and data quality
information regarding geoscience surveys. Each data set con-
tains unique information.
Geological information is genetic in character. In principle,
it allows the inference of petroleum occurrence spatial charac-
teristics. The areas of greatest interest occur where knowledge
of petroleum accumulation and geological information are
imperfect and incomplete. In such areas, one cannot make a
deterministic prediction of hydrocarbon occurrence. Available
geological information provides the necessary conditions for
hydrocarbon occurrence, but necessary conditions at a given
location do not guarantee the existence of a commercial petro-
leum accumulation. Other geological information, such as the
secondary migration pathway to, and the drainage region of, a
trap, are not generally available prior to drilling. Such infor-
mation is commonly subjectively inferred from judicious
exploration experience.
Exploration drilling is selective. As a result, the informa-
tion pertaining to discovered petroleum pools, their sizes and
spatial locations, is a biased sample of the spatial distribution
of petroleum accumulations. The statistical bias of the discov-
ered pool size sample compared to its natural population is a
well-known phenomenon ( e. g. Kaufman et al. , 1975; Lee and
Wang,1985). The spatial bias of such a sample is indicated by
selective exploration drilling based on factors that include
geological favorability and accessibility. Geological setting
and processes of hydrocarbon generation, migration, and
entrapment within a petroleum system control the spatial dis-
tribution of the petroleum resource. In general, the considera-
tion of additional geological information improves the inferred
description of petroleum resource spatial variation. To reduce
the impact of observational bias on play concepts and geolog-
ical models, one may integrate genetic geological information,
from exploration results, into the exploration decision-making
process. For example, a geological model of reservoir facies
provides a useful constraint affecting the inference of reservoir
thickness between wells.
Reflection seismic surveying is an established oil and gas
exploration tool; the primary purpose of which is the identifica-
tion and description of viable prospects for evaluation and
drilling. Features such as acoustic wave travel time, amplitude,
velocity, and frequency/phase all contain information pertinent
to the spatial characterization of subsurface hydrocarbon
resources. Seismic information allows the inference of reservoir
parameters, including porosity (Doyen et al. , 1996) and thick-
ness (Wolf et al. , 1994) from seismic amplitude, as well as the
possibility for indirect inference of natural gas (Houck, 1999).
Seismic data provides a spatial coverage and deep penetration
not achieved by the direct and definitive techniques associated
with the drilling, evaluating and completing of wells.
The probability of detecting a geological anomaly as a
function of its size, shape, and orientation, as well as the
geometry of the seismic survey grid has been studied since the
1950s ( e. g. Kaufman, 1994). The computation of anomaly
detection probability as a function of exploration drilling pat-
tern and history also has been studied ( e. g. Drew, 1967; Singer
and Drew, 1976). Both types of studies were driven primarily
by the need to optimize search strategies. Such an optimization
seeks to balance the increased costs associated with higher
data density against the value of improving the probability of
prospect identification. Information regarding the location of
Y
Ly(~)
.~" Lx(q~)
L
Fi g. 1. Position speci f i cat i ons of a geol ogi c al anomal y , s ee t ex t f or
di scussi on ( ba s e d on Ka uf ma n, 1 9 9 4 )
152 Z. CHEN, K. OSADETZ, H. GAO, P . HANNI GAN and C. WATSON
! ! ! / , , ~ o , o o ~
" , , , i , i / x o o x o k
~ - ' - ' ~ f - ~ ~ " t xxXs :xx ~ x o ~ x \
~ . ~
~ . . . x . . . ~ . ' ~ . . .
5 8 . 7 . . . . . < ~ ~ ~ < . ~ , ~ ~ . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . , , ~ . . , - . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7 . ~ % ,,.,.,,~ : : : o o .
' T ~ ! L . % ~ : / i ~. , X x , , o o xS ~ ~ x: x ~
,'~ . " / ~ " 7 [ ~ . / . , x x . + ,-, x " o x :
i . ~ / ~ t ~ ..) . ~ L, . , : ......,~__..---, : x x : x 0 ~ : xx
~-J~' i ~ DA t 3 ~ 1~ . ~ >< xX . ,-., ,-,.
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U,S,-" X x , * * : " ~ " 0
| ~ ~ " ' e " ~ : : " ~ O . _ a ~ * . * ~ ~ 0
58. 6
: ~ ~ ; .* . * : + x ~ ~, . xX :
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x . . . . . x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * " ' ' " 0 " ~ . . . . . . . . . .
~ . x . ~ ~ . - I ~ ' x ' " O x x x "
, 0 " ~ " ~ * x x " x " "
f x : x _ . + : x x X _ x ' - ' x i ~ X + , . ~ x ~ ~ x o
: \ x X x : x " : + x x X : ~ o x x : + : o x o ,~
~ y ~ : : ~ X : x * + x , O . , " . + x x * * x .
: \ ^ : : x : x x x : , x : . , i
~-~ 58. 5 . . . . . . . : . . . J . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . ~ - . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . : .=.== . . . . . . . . . . . x . . . x . . . ~ . . ~ . * . :
= = : f x i i i " : " % x : ~ * - ~ . - % - ~
: / : x : . : . : x : o x ~ :
f x ~ . * ~ . * > = . " /
L x Xx ~ " " "i . ~ xX xO~ : . ~ :
. . . . . . . ~ - ~ x ~ " : ~ o ; . . . . . . . . . . . . . . - : ~ . . . . . xX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
58. 4
\ : ~ x : x x + ~ 6 o x x
\ : / v . + : * * x
i x xX ++: ' ~
: + * * x x
X X , X . " X "
58. 3 . . . . . . . . . . x . . . x . . . . . . . . .. ~ . . . . . . ~_ . . . . . . . . . . . . ,~ . . . . . . . : . . . . . ~ . . . . x. . . . l : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
x . * ~ ~ k'. x x "x I " "--
: ~ . x x " x 0/ : "
U X " " X " "
x O : . x + x : ~ O : x x x ~ . . . . . . . . / : :
, . . + X . .
~ . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~. ~. . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
- 119. 8 - 1 1 9 . 6 - 1 1 9 . 4 - 1 1 9 . 2 - 1 1 9 - 1 1 8 . 8 - 1 1 8 . 6
Longi t ude
Fi g . 2. Pl a y bo un da r y a n d e x p l o r a t i o n we l l l o c a t i o n s a n d i ni t i al s t a t us (x: dr y we l l ; + : g a s wel l ; o: oi l wel l ; * : oi l a n d g a s we l l ) f o r t he Mi ddl e
De vo n i a n Ke g Ri ve r Re e f p l a y us e d i n t hi s st udy Lo c a t i o n s a r e de s c r i be d us i ng l a t i t ude a n d l o n g i t ude . Su b s e q u e n t ma p s di s p l a y t he s a m e
r e g i o n us i n g t he UTM c o o r di n a t e s y s t e m wi t h a c e n t r a l me r i di a n o f 119 . The UTM c o o r di n a t e s y s t e m i s mo r e c o n v e n i e n t f o r c o mp ut a t i o n a l
p ur p o s e s .
geophysi cal and geol ogi cal observat i ons represents the expl o-
ration sampl i ng scheme and its spatial characteristics. When
inferring the spatial characteristics of hydr ocar bon accumul a-
tions usi ng onl y di scovered accumul at i ons, the availability of
geosci ence survey i nformat i on allows f or an analysis of obser-
vations. Wi t h such data, it is possi bl e to use line-search strate-
gies and expl orat i on well search met hods to estimate the
remai ni ng undi scover ed hydr ocar bon resource.
The obj ect i ve of this paper is to demonst rat e the useful ness
of integrating available i nformat i on into an i mpr oved spatial
description of the undi scover ed resource distribution. The pro-
posed met hod is illustrated by the analysis of the spatial vari-
ation of geol ogi cal fact ors and di scover y patterns in the
Mi ddl e Devoni an Keg Ri ver Reef play. The result is a pre-
di ct i on of the spatial pattern of undi scover ed pet rol eum
resources in the exampl e play.
METHOD
The met hod for charact eri zi ng the spatial pattern of undis-
cover ed pet rol eum resources in the Mi ddl e Devoni an Keg
Ri ver Reef pl ay consists of three steps:
A. The est i mat i on of the probabi l i t y of hydr ocar bon accu-
mul at i on usi ng geol ogi cal and expl orat i on i nformat i on.
B. The est i mat i on of the space remai ni ng for undi scover ed
pet rol eum resources.
C. The est i mat i on of possi bl e l ocat i ons and sizes of undi s-
cover ed pet rol eum pools.
INTEGRATION OF GEOLOGICAL INFORMATION WITH
EX PLORATION OUTCOMES
To det ermi ne the spatial pattern of undi scover ed pet rol eum
resources in a play, we need to know the most likely l ocat i ons
f or hydr ocar bon accumul at i ons, as well as its possi bl e pool
size. Suppose that the area of interest can be di vi ded into t wo
categories, A and 7k; the regi ons occupi ed by hydr ocar bon
pool s versus the "barren" regions, respect i vel y. We use an
i ndi cat or I to describe the classification. I f the area under
i nvest i gat i on bel ongs to A, I=1; ot herwi se I=0. Suppose that
we have pri or i nformat i on on the classification. For exampl e,
assume that we know the success ratio f r om expl orat i on
drilling and additional geol ogi cal i nformat i on pert i nent to the
classification. We can use the Bayesi an t heor em to updat e the
CHARACTERI ZI NG SPATI AL DI STRI BUTI ON OF UNDI SCOVERED HY DROCARBONS I N THE WCSB 153
x 104 Sei smi c l i nes, pre-1975, Rai nbow Basi n
-3
==
:~ -6
-7
- 8
- 9
4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 5.1
East i ng
4
x l 0
Seismic lines, 1975-1986, Rai nbow Basin
5.2
x 105
-3
-4
-5
~ - 8
-7
-8
-9
4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 5.1 5.2
Figure 3b Easting x 10 s
Fi g. 3. Two sei smi c sur vey maps i l l ust rat i ng geophysi cal pr ospect i ng ef f ort s in t he Mi ddl e Devoni an Keg Ri ver reef pl ay over an ar ea of appr ox-
i mat el y 12,000 km 2, pr i or t o 197 5 (Fig. 3a), and bet ween 197 5-1986 (Fig. 3b).
154 Z CHEN, K. OSADETZ, H. GAO, P. HANNIGAN and C. WATSON
prior information to refine our state of knowl edge (Harbaugh
et al., 1995; Doyen et al., 1996; Gao et al., 1997; Houck,
1999). This is expressed in terms of a conditional probability.
The conditional probability that the area belongs to A, given
geological evidence, can be written as:
pop[ obs ervational evidence I = 1]
PP = p[ obs ervational evidence]
Where Po is the prior probability of hydrocarbon occur-
rence, as indicated by past exploration results, p[observation-
al evidence] is the probability that geological evidence occurs,
and p[observational evidence I I=1] is the conditional proba-
bility that the given area belongs to category A ( I =l ) and that
the geological evidence occurs. This conditional probability pp
is also called the posterior probability, because it is the prior
probability updated by additional information.
SPATIAL PATTERN OF REMAINING AREAS AVAILABLE FOR
HYDROCARBON ACCUMULATION
Si nce undi scover ed pet r ol eum accumul at i ons occupy
space, it is possible to characterize their spatial distribution by
identifying the untested play vol ume and excluding from that
vol ume both those regions that geological information indicate
are unfavorable and those regions where exploration activities
have exhausted the potential for undiscovered resources. A
simple method for determining the untested favorabl e areas is
to exclude all previously tested areas. The excluded regions
include discovered pools, dry well locations and their influ-
ence range, as well as regions surveyed by seismic prospect-
ing. Geological features necessary for hydrocarbon accumula-
tion are also identified within the untested area, further elimi-
nating regions from consideration.
I f we know both the geomet ry of seismic shot lines, and the
characteristic sizes, shapes and locations of identified geophys-
ical anomalies, then we can estimate the total number of geo-
physical anomalies and their distribution within the investigat-
ed area using a probabilistic model (Kaufman, 1994). Suppose
that we have conducted a rectangular seismic survey consisting
of four seismic lines with A and B as the distances between two
pairs of parallel lines. We approximate the map boundary of a
potential geophysical prospect by curve C, using an ellipse with
maj or axis a and minor axis b (Fig. 1). C has an orientation
described by an angle, % between a fixed line, L, drawn through
the interior of the anomaly and the northings/latitudes, or x-axis,
of the map (Fig. 1). Let Lx and Ly denote the projections of
30OO
E
2000
E 1000
D i r e c t i o n = 0
0
0
i
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 3
Di s t a n c e 4
Di r e c t i o n = 9 0 x 10
E
2 0 0 0
1000
Di r e c t i o n = 45
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . .
0
0 1 2 3
Di s t a n c e 4
Di r e c t = 135 x 10
3OOO
E
2000
E 1000
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . | . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3OOO
E
2000
1000
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i . . . . .
" i - . * * i
0 0
0 2 3 0 1 2 3
Di s t a n c e 4 Di s t a n c e 4
x 10 x 10
F i g . 4. Semi -var i ogr am of t he t hi ckness of t he upper Keg Ri ver For mat i on as a functi on of f our sel ect ed azi mut hs. The hori zont al axi s rep-
resent s t he di st ance bet ween wel l s. The ver t i cal axi s is t he aver age squar ed di f f erence of t he t hi ckness bet ween al l dat a pai rs a gi ven di s-
t ance apar t .
CHARACTERI ZI NG SPATI AL DI STRI BUTI ON OF UNDI SCOVERED HY DROCARBONS I N THE WCSB 155
x l o 4
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
x l o 4
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
4, 6
Thi c k n e s s , K e g Ri ve r a x 10 4
4. 8 5 5. 2
x l 0 ~
Thi c k n e s s , Mu s k e g C
4. 6 4. 8 5 5. 2
x l 0 5
F i g . 5 . a . I s o pa c h of Ke g Ri ve r F o r ma t i o n ( uni t : me t r e s ) , b. Kr i gi ng s t a n d a r d
i ng t he u n c e r t a i n t y i n t hi c k n e s s i n t e r po la t i o n , c . I s o pa c h of Mu s k e g F o r ma t i o n
t hi c k n e s s ( uni t : me t r e s ) i n d i c a t i n g t he u n c e r t a i n t y i n t hi c k n e s s i n t e r po la t i o n .
x l O 4
x 10 4
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
4. 6
P C l a
4. 8 5 5. 2
x l 0 5
P r i o r P r o b a b i li t y C
1
0. 8
0. 6
0. 4
0. 2
0
0. 2
0, 4
0. 6
0. 8
-1
-9
1
). 9
). 8
). 7
). 6
). 5
). 4
) 3
).2
).1
0
x l 0 4
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
4. 6
K e g Ri ver
4. 6 4.8 5
4.8 5 5 . 2
x l 0 s
Mu s k e g d
5. 2
x l 0 s
d e vi a t i o n f or Ke g Ri ve r F o r ma t i o n t hi c k n e s s ( uni t : me t r e s ) i n d i c a t -
( uni t : me t r e s ) , d . Kr i gi ng s t a n d a r d d e vi a t i o n f or Mu s k e g F o r ma t i o n
x l o 4
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
x l 0 4
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
Ge o lo g i c a l F a vo r a b i li t y b
4, 6 4.8 5 5. 2
x l o 5
P o s t e r i o r P r o b a b i li t y d
4. 6 4. 8 5 5. 2 4. 6 4. 8 5 5. 2
x l 0 5 x l 0 s
).6
),5
).4
).3
),2
),1
0
F i g . 6. a . P r i n c i pa l Co m po n e n t I r e pr e s e n t i n g g e o lo g i c a l i n f o r ma t i o n ma i n ly i n d i c a t i ve of f o r ma t i o n t hi c k n e s s va r i a t i o n s , b. P r i n c i pa l Co m po n e n t
III, c o n t a i n i n g t he mo s t i n f o r ma t i o n t ha t s e pa r a t e s d i s c o ve r i e s a n d d r y we lls . Thi s i s r e g a r d e d a s a n i n d e x of g e o lo g i c a l f avor abi li t y , c . P r o b a b i li t y of
g a s o c c u r r e n c e e s t i m a t e d f r o m e x plo r a t i o n we lls . Thi s i s r e g a r d e d a s t he pr i or pr obabi li t y , d . P o s t e r i o r pr o b a b i li t y of t he o c c u r r e n c e of g a s po o ls
u pd a t e d by g e o lo g i c a l f avor abi li t y .
156 Z. CHEN, K. OSADETZ, H. GAO, P. HANNI GAN and C. WATSON
anomaly C onto northings and eastings (x and y-axis) respec-
tively, of the map. I f any seismic line crosses the anomaly we
assume it is identified. The detection probability of an anomaly
of boundary curve C, oriented % given the seismic configura-
tion # (A, B), can be written as (Kaufman, 1994):
p(d #(A,B), qg)= { 1; [A-~( ~)][B-LY(AB ~0)]
if A>a & B>b
oth erwis e
The Horvi t z-Thompson estimator, a moment estimator, can
be used to estimate the population properties of the geophysi-
cal anomalies (Kaufman, 1994; Chen and Fu, 1996). In
regions of "3D" seismic surveys, it is assumed that all geo-
physical anomalies with dimensions larger than the resolution
of the survey are identified.
By excluding also those areas tested previously by wells,
the geomet ry of dry prospects can be used directly in the esti-
mation of the remaining available space for undiscovered
resources. As we do not have information regarding the size
and shape of previously drilled prospects, an existing model of
exploratory well exhaustion is used (Drew, 1967), assuming a
constant exhaustion radius.
ESTIMATING POSSIBLE LOCATIONS AND SIZES OF
UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES
The possible locations and associated sizes of undiscovered
resources are expressed in terms of a pore vol ume within a
specific cell. The quantity of hydrocarbons in this specific cell
can be written as:
V(x) = p(x)w(X)
where x represents the center of a cell; p ( x ) is the hydrocar-
bon occurrence probabi l i t y within the cell, and w( x ) is a vol-
umet ri c variable representing the pore vol ume avai l abl e for
hydrocarbon accumul at i on within the cell. The measure of
the quantity of hydrocarbon accumulation, V( x ) , and the vol-
umet ri c variable, w( x ) , can be descri bed as known functions
of pore vol ume. For exampl e, w( x ) and V( x ) may be mea-
sured as pool area i f we know the relationship bet ween the
pore vol ume and pool area.
CASE STUDY
GEOLOGICAL SETTING
We illustrate this met hod by predicting possible locations
and associated sizes of undiscovered pet rol eum resources in
Keg Ri ver reefs of the Rai nbow sub-basin of the Western
Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The Keg Ri ver Reef
pl ay is a mature hydrocarbon pl ay located in nolrthwestern
Alberta between 58-59N and 118-120W (Townships 106-
111, Ranges 4- 11wr ) . Major geological controls on this pl ay
and its pet rol eum syst em have been described (Barss et al. ,
1970; Reinson et al. , 1993; Li et al. , 1999). The organic-rich
Keg Ri ver Formation is the maj or source for pet rol eum (Barss
et al. , 1970; Li et al. , 1999). Keg Ri ver reefs, the pri mary reser-
voir, are devel oped on the lower Keg Ri ver ramp-pl at form car-
bonates. The reefs, dominantly dolomitized coral-stromato-
poroid floatstones/bindstones, are capped by algal grainstone-
packstone shoal deposits (Reinson et al. , 1993). Muskeg
Formation evaporites form a top seal overlying porous reef
buildups.
Figure 2 shows the pl ay boundary and the exploration wells
drilled prior to 1994. Prior to 1994,407 exploratory wells were
drilled into the Keg Ri ver Formation within the play area.
These tests resulted in 22 gas discoveries, 87 oil discoveries
and 77 oil and gas discoveries with a total estimated reserve of
269.064x106 m 3 oil equivalent in place.
DATA ANALYSIS
Three types of data are available from this mature play:
1. Geological information that characterizes both petrole-
um pools and geological setting, including depths to the
Keg River, Muskeg and Sulphur Point formations, the
thickness of these formations, and pet rol eum pool reser-
voir parameters.
2. Exploration wells locations, status (186 di scovery wells
and 221 dry holes) as well as pool size and area for most
discovery wells.
3. Three seismic survey maps describing geophysi cal
pr ospect i ng effort s in a regi on of appr oxi mat el y
12,000 km 2, prior to 1975, between 1975-1986 and
bet ween 1988-1997. Pri or to 1975, mor e than 1900
sei smi c lines were shot with a total line length of
about 1.5 xl 04 km. During 1975-1986, the most inten-
sive seismic acquisition period, more than 9600 sei smi c
lines wer e shot wi t h a t ot al l engt h of 6.2 xl 04 km.
Bet ween 1988 and 1997 about 1400 lines with a total
length of about 7500 km were acquired. Figures 3a and
3b show the seismic survey maps shot in the t i me peri-
ods pre-1975 and 1975-1986. Seismic lines acquired in
the east-west direction are denser than those in the
north-south direction (Figs. 3a and 3b), a feature used
when calculating space avai l abl e for undi scovered
resources.
Spatial Ch aracteris tics of Geological Factors
We are certain that all regional geological conditions nec-
essary for hydrocarbon accumulation exist because this is a
mature pet rol eum play. The spatial distribution of pet rol eum
resources is controlled pri mari l y by local variations in geolog-
ical factors, such as the existence of traps, secondary migra-
tion pathways, and the availability of a hydrocarbon charge.
However, secondary migration pat hways and hydrocarbon
availability for a specific prospect are unknown prior, and
even somet i mes subsequent, to drilling. In contrast, the exis-
tence of a trap or prospect, in this case a reef, may be inferred
from other indicators.
Exploration experience indicates the presence of a pinnacle
reef trap is both the maj or control on hydrocarbon occurrence
CHARACTERI ZI NG SPATI AL DI STRI BUTI ON OF UNDI SCOVERED HY DROCARBONS I N THE WCSB 157
in the play, and the key criterion for exploration success and
undiscovered potential. Dry wells commonl y result where the
trap is insufficient or incorrectly located. Pinnacle reefs are
indicated by a marked thickening in the Keg River Formation,
or by drape or thinning of overlying Muskeg Formation above
a reef. Isopach maps, structural maps, and associated residual
maps of Keg Ri ver and Muskeg formations were analyzed to
det ermi ne correlations bet ween geol ogi cal variables and
petroleum pools.
The spatial vari at i ons of these geol ogi cal vari abl es were
i nt er pol at ed usi ng kri gi ng, a geost at i st i cal t echni que.
Kri gi ng was empl oyed during map- maki ng because it takes
advant age of spatial correl at i on i nformat i on to opt i mal l y
wei gh est i mat es of grid values consi deri ng nei ghbori ng data
points. Kri gi ng also indicates the reliability of the resulting
map, since kriging vari ance indicates the uncert ai nt y in the
est i mat e at grid nodes as a function of data point proxi mi t y.
Kri gi ng interpolation has been used in many geol ogi cal
mappi ng applications (Olea, 1992, 1994; Har baugh et al. ,
1995). Readers are referred el sewhere for the mat hemat i cal
details of this technique (Isaaks and Sri vast ava, 1989;
Deut sch and Journel, 1992).
Data from 407 exploration wells are used in this analysis.
Of these, 258 drilled completely through the Keg River
Formation. These 258 wells are used to map Keg River thick-
ness. The thickness of Keg Ri ver Formation has a discernible
anisotropy illustrated by variograms (Fig. 4). A vari ogram
graphically portrays the spatial continuity of a mappabl e vari-
able on a cross plot. The cross plot of a selected variable is
composed of the average squared difference between the val-
ues of all data pairs, a given distance apart, plotted against the
distance between data points (Wol f et al. , 1994). This
anisotropy shows that continuity of Keg Ri ver thickness is bet-
ter in the northeasterly direction compared to the northwester-
ly direction. This is indicated by a larger range of values,
shown in variograms with azimuths of 45 and 90 , where
there is a greater distance from the origin of the vari ogram to
where the vari ogram curve flattens (Fig. 4).
The contoured Keg River thickness map shows a general
northeasterly trend in the central play area with northwesterly
trends appearing more obvious in the northeastern play area
(Fig. 5a). The pattern of Keg River thickness variations in
Figure 5a may reflect a complicated geological control on
regional depositional patterns, including reef forming process-
es. Uncertainties in the Keg Ri ver thickness map (Fig. 5a) are
portrayed by the map of the kriging standard deviation (Fig.
5b). Figure 5b indicates that the uncertainty in Figure 5a is
greater in the southwestern play area where data are sparse.
The thickness of overl yi ng Muskeg Format i on exhibits a
very different map pattern (Fig. 5c). In contrast to the Keg
Ri ver thickness, the anisotropy of Muskeg thickness is more
pronounced along northwesterly trends. The kriging standard
deviation illustrates the uncertainty in the interpolation of the
Muskeg isopach map (Fig. 5d). When thickness maps of the
Keg Ri ver and Muskeg format i ons are compared, there is a
general correlation of thick Keg Ri ver Format i on with thins
in overl yi ng Muskeg Format i on (Figs. 5a and 5c). This quan-
titative relationship is consistent with geological observa-
tion.
Further analysis shows a direct correlation between discov-
ered pet rol eum pool locations and thicknesses of Keg Ri ver
and Muskeg formations. Keg Ri ver Formation is always more
than 100 m thick, and commonl y greater than 200 m thick,
with corresponding thinning of Muskeg Formation, at all dis-
covered pool locations. However, the predictive power of
these thickness correlations is reduced when formation thick-
ness variation at dry wells is compared to thickness variations
where pools were discovered. Thickness maps contain insuffi-
cient information to completely separate discovery wells from
dry holes. The analysis of structural residual maps of Keg
River and Muskeg formation tops gives similar results.
In order to obtain geological characteristics and spatial pat-
terns of hydrocarbon pools that distinguish productive loca-
tions from dry wells, we considered different combinations of
maps. Calculated maps included combinations of basic thick-
ness and structural data, such as ratios of formation thickness-
es and high frequency components of formation thickness
maps. Preliminary studies of such calculated maps show that
some were redundant, while others were only weakly correlat-
ed with pool locations. To extract map information directly
related to petroleum occurrence and its spatial characteristics,
we use Principal Component Analysis (PCA). PCA provides
orthogonal projections of map data that better discriminates
the geological characteristics of discovery wells. PCA is sim-
ply a mathematical transformation of t he original variables.
PCA involves the selection of uncorrelated linear combi na-
tions of original variables in such a manner that each succes-
sive linear combination of variables has a smaller variance.
There are many applications of PCA to geological problems,
including data matrix reduction, multivariate correlation, and
classification (Davis, 1986; Yamamot o, 1976). The mat hemat -
ical formulation of PCA is discussed elsewhere (Davis, 1986;
Mardia et al. , 1989).
After the transformation of original variables, PCA gives
the following results. Principal component I (PC I, Fig. 6a),
representing 42% of variance, contains information predomi-
nantly pertinent to formation thickness variations, particularly
the thickness of Muskeg Formation (Fig. 5c). Principal com-
ponent I I I (PC III), representing about 16% of variance, con-
tains the most information discriminating discovery wells
from dry holes. We regard PC III as the comprehensi ve indi-
cator of geological favorability in this study. The resulting
geological favorability map was comput ed directly from a lin-
ear combination of geological maps, including format i on
thickness, high frequency components of formation thickness,
and structural residuals on specific formation tops (Fig. 6b).
158 Z. CHEN, K. OSADETZ, H. GAO, P. HANNI GAN and C. WATSON
x 104 X>=0.05 a x 104 x> =0.3 b
-6
-4
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-4
-6
- 8 - 8
-1
4.6 4.8 5 5.2 4.6 4.8 5 5.2
x 105 x 105
x 104 x> =2 x 104 x> =4
-6
- 8
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-4
-4
-6
- 8
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1 -1
4.6 4.8 5 5.2 4.6 4.8 5 5.2
x l 05 x l 05
Fig. 7. Geographic distributions of discoveries and dry wells for different pool size thresholds. Red represents pools equal to or larger than the
specified sizes; yellow indicates pools smaller than the specified sizes. Pool size in x106 m3; i . e. the size of each pool is indicated by its pool area.
x 104 x> =0.05 a x 104 x> =0.3
-4
-6
b
0. 5
1 1
-4
-6
0. 5
- 8 - 8
0
4.6 4.8 5 5.2 4.6 4.8 5 5.2
x l 05 x l 05
X 104 X>=2.0 X 10 4 x>=4.0
]
-4 -4
-6
0.5
-6
- 8 - 8
0
4.6 4.8 5 5.2 4.6 4.8 5 5.2
x l 05 x l 05
0
0.5
Fig. 8. Probabilities of hydrocarbon occurrences estimated from exploration wells for different specified pool size thresholds. Pool size in xl 06
m3; i . e. the size of each pool is indicated by its pool area.
CHARACTERIZING SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF UNDISCOVERED HYDROCARBONS I N THE WCSB 159
X 10 4
-3
-4
-5
- 6
-7
- 8
- 9
X 10 4
4.6 4.8 5 5.2 4.6
x 10 ~
F i g . 9. Spat i al pat t er n of t he ar eas avai l abl e f or pot ent i al undi scover ed
pet r ol eum accumul at i ons (ar ea unit: squar e km).
Figure 6b shows that there are two parallel, northeast-striking
zones of greater geological favorability.
R es ul t s of E x p l orat i on D ri l l i ng
The probl em of est i mat i ng hydrocarbon occurrence prob-
ability at an untested location is equi val ent to est i mat i ng the
local conditional cumul at i ve probabi l i t y distribution func-
tion for hydrocarbon occurrence at the same location, using
nearby observat i ons (Solow, 1986). We begi n by regardi ng
expl orat i on drilling results as a bi nary r andom variable,
i ndi cat i ve of either success or failure. Thi s al l ows the spatial
0.7
0.6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . ~
0.4
o . 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i ............. ....................... i ...............
i o ! ............ ................ ............ ........... i i .............. ........ ,i! ,i 4
Fi g. 10. Pr obabi l i t y t hat a geophy s i c al a n o ma l y wi t h a si ze of 0.5
km 2 and ci r cul ar s ha p e i n 2D p l a n e c oul d have be e n mi ssed by di f f er-
ent r ec t angul ar sei smi c l i ne sear chi ng. Sei smi c gr i d i s f i xed at a
l engt h/ wi dt h r at i o=32/ 26.
4.8 5 5.2
x 10 s
1
) . 9
).8
').7
' ) . 6
).5
').4
) 3
3.2
3.1
0
Fi g. 11. Pr obabi l i t y t hat ar eas wi t h a geol ogi cal a n o ma l y of si ze equal
t o or l ar ger t han 0.1 km 2 cont ai ns hydr ocar bons. The pr obabi l i t y of exi s-
t ence of geol ogi cal a n o ma l y wi t h si ze equal t o or l ar ger t han 0.1 km 2 i s
f i xed at 7 5% . See t ext f or mor e expl anat i on.
distribution of Keg Ri ver pool s to be expressed in t erms of
a hydrocarbon occurrence probabi l i t y est i mat ed using indi-
cat or kriging. Fi gure 6c is the resultant hydrocarbon occur-
rence probabi l i t y map. However, the kri ged probabi l i t y map
derived f r om expl orat i on results may be statistically bi ased
because expl orat i on was guided by a geol ogi cal model .
To investigate the maj or geological controls on spatial
characteristics of petroleum pools as a function of size, the 186
discoveries and 221 dry wells were converted into indicator
variables according to their pool sizes. Four pool size thresh-
olds of_> 0.05 106m 3, _>0.3 xl06 m 3, _>2.0 xl06 m 3, and _>4.0
xl06 m 3 oil equivalent were chosen. These thresholds corre-
sponding to 97.74%, 95.49%, 81.26% and 62.39% of the total
play reserve, respectively, or to 90%, 50%, 20% and 10% of
the total number of discovered hydrocarbon pools, respective-
ly. Figure 7 shows the geographic distributions of the binary
variables for each of the threshold values of mi ni mum pool
size and Figure 8 shows the pet rol eum occurrence probabili-
ties for the same four thresholds. From these maps we observe
the following:
1. Large numbers of small and medi um pools occur in the
northeastern part of the play, while large pools occur in
the south-central play area.
2. Regardless of pool size, there are two preferred linear
alignments of pools, one in a northeasterly direction and
the other in a northwesterly direction.
3. The probabi l i t y of a large pool occurri ng (>_2.0 xl 06
m 3 oil equivalent) decreases f r om sout hwest to north-
east, indicating essential geol ogi cal factors cont rol l i ng
pl ay richness are mor e f avor abl e to the sout hwest
160 Z. CHEN, K. OSADETZ, H. GAO, P. HANNI GAN and C. WATSON
(Figs. 8c and 8d). Thi s is pri mari l y due to the deposi -
tional setting, where a bet t er connect i on to open
mari ne conditions existed to the south resulting in bet-
ter reservoi r characteristics. It may also be due to aug-
ment ed hydrocarbon charge entering the downdi p
limit of the pl ay f r om source rocks lying outside the
pl ay boundary.
4. In Fi gure 8, three high occurrence probabi l i t y areas
are consi st ent l y separat ed by nort hwest -st ri ki ng l ow-
probabi l i t y belts. The three hi gh-probabi l i t y areas
;how internal nort hwest erl y trends observabl e in the
pool distribution maps (Fig. 7). These domai ns of hi gh
and l ow-probabi l i t y may indicate unspeci fi ed north-
west erl y trending geol ogi cal el ement s affect i ng pet ro-
l eum mi grat i on and accumul at i on processes.
It is reasonable to assume that al most all the large pools are
discovered in this pl ay (Reinson et al., 1993). Therefore, we
regard the hydrocarbon occurrence probability map for pools
>2. 0 X 106 m 3 oil equivalent as a realistic spatial description of
the large pet rol eum pools in this play.
SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF UNDISCOVERED
HYDROCARBON RESOURCE
The Probability of Hydrocarbon Occurrence
The kri ged probabi l i t y map deri ved f r om expl orat i on out-
comes is used to indicate the pri or probabi l i t y of pet r ol eum
pool occurrence in the Keg Ri ver Reef pl ay (Fig. 6c). The
map of geol ogi cal favorabi l i t y (Fig. 6b) contains additional
i nformat i on regardi ng the spatial charact eri st i cs of pool s
that is used to updat e the pri or probabi l i t y map. Fi gure 6d is
the resul t i ng post eri or probabi l i t y map that reflects hydro-
carbon occurrence and which consi ders bot h expl orat i on
results and geol ogi cal favorabi l i t y. Compar i son of the pos-
terior probabi l i t y map with the pri or probabi l i t y map shows
significant i mpr ovement s in the post eri or probabi l i t y map.
The t wo NE- SW favorabl e bands on the geol ogi cal favora-
bility map are present in the post eri or probabi l i t y map (Fig.
6b). We suggest that the post eri or probabi l i t y map provi des
the best possi bl e est i mat e of hydrocarbon occurrence using
avai l abl e data.
Possible Locations and Sizes of Undiscovered Resources
Untested areas are obvious regions to consider when
assigning locations and potential pool sizes to undiscovered
resources. Excluded areas, where no additional resources are
expected, include areas occupied by existing discoveries, areas
of exhausted potential (i.e. areas comprising dry holes and
their areas of influence), and areas excluded by seismic survey
line densities. It is also necessary to ensure that all geological
elements necessary for hydrocarbon accumulation are present
in the areas of concern.
In this study we idealize the results of previous drilling by
assuming that they are diagnostic. We assume that each dry
exploratory well exhausts a circular area of 1.4 km 2. We also
assume that all 2D seismic lines have equal detection power
and that any suitable anomaly crossed by a single seismic line
was diagnostically detected and drilled. Experience shows
these assumptions to be simplified. However, they do not
reduce the generality of this analysis. I f we knew the quality
and resolving power of individual dry wells and seismic lines,
then we mi ght consider each individually in a more detailed
estimation of remaining opportunity.
For this example we consider only the data from seismic sur-
veys prior to 1975 and that locating seismic surveys between
1975-1986. This was done because the data from seismic sur-
veys during the interval 1988-1993, contemporaneous with dis-
covery history data, cannot be extracted as a subset from that
data of seismic surveys during the interval 1988-1997.
We use a rect angul ar movi ng- wi ndow met hod to calcu-
late avai l abl e space for undi scovered resources. A single
movi ng- wi ndow approach gives only the total empt y space
within each wi ndow wi t hout indicating whet her the avai l abl e
space is continuously linked or scattered throughout the win-
dow. As such it represents the maxi mum possible space avail-
able within each window. By serially applying movi ng-wi n-
dows of different sizes, it is possible to determine the contin-
uous available space. The areas excluded from additional
potential due to discovered pools and dry hole exhaustion
analysis are then deleted from the remaining available space
map, to produce an undiscovered hydrocarbon accumulation
available area map (Fig. 9).
Figure 9 represents the area available for accommodat i ng
undiscovered hydrocarbon accumulations. It also illustrates
the previous exploration focus on the southeastern and north-
ern parts of the pl ay area. Intensive seismic prospecting and
drilling in those areas has effectively exhausted the possibility
for large untested geophysical anomalies.
In the absence of prospect-specific parameters, it is difficult
to estimate the total number of prospects and their distribution
using Kauf man' s probability model. To overcome this diffi-
culty we assume, quite reasonably, that a pinnacle reef is
approximated by a circular map anomaly. With this assump-
tion it is possible to calculate the probability that a geophysi-
cal anomal y of given size and circular shape was missed by a
specified seismic search grid. Figure 10 shows the probability
of missing a circular geophysical anomal y of 0.5 km 2 with a
rectangular seismic search grid having a length to width ratio
of 16/13. Thi s cal cul at i on i ndi cat es t hat a 1.33 km 2
(1. 28xl. 04) rectangular seismic grid has only a 10% chance of
missing a geophysical anomal y with an area of 0.5 km 2. It is
difficult to find a 1.33 km 2 untested area on Fi gure 9, i mpl y-
ing that the chance of finding an undi scovered pool 0.5 km 2
in area is small. However, there are still many pl aces where
circular geophysi cal anomal i es 0.1 km 2 in area could be
mi ssed by perfect l y diagnostic seismic prospect i ng, with a
30% probability. Fr om this we concl ude that most of the
CHARACTERI ZI NG SPATI AL DI STRI BUTI ON OF UNDI SCOVERED HY DROCARBONS I N THE WCSB 161
f ut ur e di s c ove r i e s wi l l be smal l , s peci f i cal l y t hat t hey shal l be
0.1 ki n 2 or l ess i n area, a s s umi ng bot h pe r f e c t l y di a gnos t i c
s e i s mi c pr os pe c t i ng and dr i l l i ng e xha us t i on o f 1.4 kl n 2 ar ound
dr y wel l l ocat i ons , As s u mi n g t hat t he s mal l es t vi a bl e pool si ze
has a " f oot pr i nt " of 0.1 k m 2, we can c onve r t Fi gur e 9 i nt o a
ma p i ndi cat i ng ar eas whe r e s i gni f i cant oppor t uni t i es we r e
mi s s e d by pr e vi ous e xpl or a t i on and pr os pe c t i ng act i vi t i es ,
wi t h a gi ve n pr obabi l i t y. Thi s i ndi cat or ma p can be c o mb i n e d
wi t h t he hydr oc a r bon oc c ur r e nc e ma p ( Fi g. 8). The r es ul t i ng
ma p s hows t he pr oba bi l i t y t hat ar eas wi t h pr os pe c t s e qua l t o
or l ar ger t han 0. 10 kiTl 2 cont ai n hydr ocar bon r esour ces (Fi g. 11).
Co mp a r i s o n of t he undi s c ove r e d hydr oc a r bon r e s our c e ma p
( Fi g. 11) wi t h t he ma p i ndi cat i ng t he pr obabi l i t y f or t he occur -
r e nc e o f hydr oc a r bon pool s gr eat er t han or e qua l t o 0. 30 xl 06
m 3 oi l equi val ent , s ugges t s t hat t he t wo ma ps ar e si mi l ar . Fr o m
t hi s s i mi l ar i t y we i nf er t hat t hos e part s o f t he pl ay al r eady con-
t ai ni ng t he hi ghe s t dens i t y o f l ar ge and me d i u m pool s ar e al so
t he ar eas whe r e i t is mos t l i kel y t o f i nd t he ma j or i t y o f t he
undi s c ove r e d pe t r ol e um r es our ces .
CONCLUSIONS
Th e us e o f g e o l o g i c a l and g e o p h y s i c a l dat a c o mb i n e d
wi t h e x p l o r a t i o n dr i l l i ng r es ul t s c a n be us e d t o pr e di c t t he
pos s i bl e l oc a t i ons and s i zes o f u n d i s c o v e r e d p e t r o l e u m
pool s i n t he Ke g Ri v e r Re e f pl ay. Th e c a s e s t udy s h o ws t hat
t he c o mb i n a t i o n o f bot h e x p l o r a t i o n r es ul t s and g e o l o g i c a l
c ha r a c t e r i s t i c s gi ve s a be t t e r e s t i ma t e o f t he pr oba bi l i t y o f
p e t r o l e u m o c c u r r e n c e t han t he c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f e i t he r dat a
set i ndi vi dua l l y. Th e i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f g e o p h y s i c a l p r o s p e c t -
i ng i n f o r ma t i o n gi ve s a r e a l i s t i c i l l us t r a t i on o f t he s pat i al
di s t r i but i on o f u n d i s c o v e r e d p e t r o l e u m pot e nt i a l . Th e c on-
s t r uct i on o f a f a v o r a b i l i t y ma p f o l l o wi n g t he me t h o d pr o-
p o s e d he r e i n p r o v i d e s a me a n i n g f u l me t h o d f or d e s c r i b i n g
t he s pat i al di s t r i but i on o f u n d i s c o v e r e d p o o l a nd f i e l d s i zes
o b t a i n e d f r o m ot he r r e s o u r c e a s s e s s me n t me t h o d s us i ng a
s t oc ha s t i c s i mul a t i on. Th e f a v o r a b i l i t y ma p i t s e l f i s a us e f ul
t o o l f or b o t h h y d r o c a r b o n e x p l o r a t i o n a nd p e t r o l e u m
r e s o u r c e ma n a g e me n t ( Fi g. 11).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Thi s wor k was s uppor t ed by Ge o l o g i c a l Sur ve y o f Ca na da
Pr oj ect #950003 and t he Pa ne l f or En e r g y Re s e a r c h and
De v e l o p me n t ( Nat ur al Re s our c e s Canada) . Th e aut hor s wo u l d
l i ke t o t hank Dr s. Da l e I ssl er , Mar t i n Fowl e r , Gl e n St oc kma l
and Ma o we n Li of GSC- Ca l g a r y and Dr s. Pe t e r Au k e s and
Te r r y Gor don o f t he Uni ve r s i t y o f Ca l ga r y f or t hei r hel pf ul
di s cus s i ons and s ugges t i ons . Tha nks al so t o Ms. Pi ng Tz e n g
and Dr. Da v i d Le pa r d f or t hei r ef f or t s t o assi st t he st udy wi t h
dat a r e c o v e r y and g e o g r a p h i c c o o r d i n a t e c o n v e r s i o n s .
Ge o l o g i c a l Su r v e y o f Ca na da Cont r i but i on Nu mb e r 2000033.
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Ma n u s c r i p t Re c e i v e d : Ma y 28, 1999
Re v i s e d Ma n u s c r i p t Ac c e p t e d : S e p t e mb e r 2, 1999