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Investments Analysis

Last 2 Weeks: Fixed Income Securities

Bond Prices and Yields

Term Structure of Interest Rates

Last & this Weeks:

Performance benchmarking

Bond-specific Risks

Interest rate risk

Credit Risk

Part II:

Fixed Income Markets

Interpreting the Yield Curve

TSOIR and interest rate uncertainty

link between

interest rates

liquidity premia

Various cases

possible cases

interpretation

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty

Interpreting the term structure

Short perspective

liquidity preference theory (investors)

liquidity premium theory (issuer)

Long perspective

Expectations hypothesis

Market Segmentation vs. Preferred Habitat

Examples

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 2

Short perspective

liquidity preference theory ( short investors)

investors need to be induced to buy LT securities

example: 1-year zero at 8% vs. 2-year zero at 8.995%

liquidity premium theory (issuer)

issuers prefer to lock in interest rates

f

2

E[r

2

]

f

2

= E[r

2

] + risk premium

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 3

Long perspective

long investors wish to lock in rates

roll over a 1-year zero at 8%

or lock in via a 2-year zero at 8.995%

E[r

2

] f

2

f

2

= E[r

2

] - risk premium

Expectation Hypothesis

E[r

2

] = f

2

(risk premium = 0)

idea: arbitrage

2

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 4

Market segmentation theory

idea: clienteles (ST and LT bonds are not substitutes)

(un)reasonable?

Preferred Habitat Theory

investors prefer some maturities but can be tempted

In practice

liquidity preference + preferred habitat

these hypotheses are thought more reasonable

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 5

Example 1

short term rates: r

1

= r

2

= r

3

= 10%

liquidity premium = constant 1% per year

YTM

% 67 . 10 1 %) 11 1 %)( 11 1 %)( 10 1 ( 1 ) 1 )( 1 )( 1 (

3 3

3 2 1 3

= + + + = + + + = f f r y

% 5 . 10 1 %) 1 % 10 1 %)( 10 1 ( 1 ) 1 )( 1 (

2 1 2

= + + + = + + = f r y

% 10

1 1

= = r y

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 6

Example 2: Quick & dirty forward rates

Zero-Coupon Rates Bond Maturity (1yr) Fwd Rate

y

1

= 12.00% 1 f

1

= y

1

= 12%

y

2

= 11.75% 2 f

2

11.5%

y

3

= 11.25% 3 f

3

10.25%

*

y

4

= 10.00% 4 f

4

6.25%

*

y

5

= 9.25% 5 f

5

6.25%

*

*:

If computed exactly, f

3

=10.26%; f

4

=6.33%; f

5

=6.30% (well show this below)

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 7

Example 2: Quick expected future short rates

Period (1yr) Fwd Rate Expected short rate

*

1 f

1

= y

1

= 12% N-A

2 f

2

11.5% E(y

1

) = r

2

11%

3 f

3

10.25% E(y

1

) = r

3

9.75%

4 f

4

6.25% E(y

1

) = r

4

5.75%

5 f

5

6.25% E(y

1

) = r

5

5.75%

*: Assumes a constant 0.5% per year liquidity premium

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 8

Example 2: Quick expected future bond prices in 2 years

Period Exp. Short Rate Fwd Rate Zero-Coupon Rates

1 N-A N-A N-A

2 N-A N-A N-A

3 E(y

1

) = r

3

9.75% f

1

9.75%

*

y

1

9.75 %

4 E(y

1

) = r

4

5.75% f

2

6.25%

**

y

2

8 %

5 E(y

1

) = r

5

5.75% f

3

6.25%

**

y

3

7.42 %

*:

In two years, this will be the current year > no LP need be added/subtracted

**: Assumes a constant 0.5% per year liquidity premium

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 9

Example 2: Formal forward rates

Zero-Coupon Rates Bond Maturity (1yr) Fwd Rate

y

1

= 12.00% 1 f

1

= y

1

= 12%

y

2

= 11.75% 2 f

2

= 11.5%

y

3

= 11.25% 3 f

3

= 10.26%

*

y

4

= 10.00% 4 f

4

= 6.33%

*

y

5

= 9.25% 5 f

5

= 6.30%

*

*:

If computed quickly, f

3

=10.25%; f

4

=6.25%; f

5

=6.25%

3

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 10

Example 2: Formal forward rates

1yr Forward Rates

1yr from now : f

2

= [(1.1175)

2

/ 1.12] - 1 = 0.115006

2yrs from now: f

3

= [(1.1125)

3

/ (1.1175)

2

] - 1 = 0.102567

3yrs from now : f

4

= [(1.1)

4

/ (1.1125)

3

] - 1 = 0.063336

4yrs from now : f

5

= [(1.0925)

5

/ (1.1)

4

] - 1 = 0.063008

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 11

Example 2: Formal expected future bond prices in 2 years

Period Exp. Short Rate Fwd Rate Zero-Coupon Rates

1 N-A N-A N-A

2 N-A N-A N-A

3 E(y

1

) = r

3

= 9.76% f

1

= 9.76%

*

y

1

= 9.76 %

4 E(y

1

) = r

4

= 5.83% f

2

= 6.33%

**

y

2

= 8.03 %

5 E(y

1

) = r

5

= 5.80% f

3

= 6.30%

**

y

3

= 7.36 %

*:

In two years, this will be the current year > no LP need be added/subtracted

**: Assumes a constant 0.5% per year liquidity premium

TSOIR & Interest Rate Uncertainty 8

Example 2: Quick expected future bond prices in 2 years

Period Exp. Short Rate Fwd Rate Zero-Coupon Rates

1 N-A N-A N-A

2 N-A N-A N-A

3 E(y

1

) = r

3

9.75% f

1

9.75%

*

y

1

9.75 %

4 E(y

1

) = r

4

5.75% f

2

6.25%

**

y

2

8.00 %

5 E(y

1

) = r

5

5.75% f

3

6.25%

**

y

3

7.42 %

*:

In two years, this will be the current year > no LP need be added/subtracted

**: Assumes a constant 0.5% per year liquidity premium

Interpreting the TSOIR

Types of yield curve

cases

upward sloping (most common)

downward sloping

hump-shaped

Fig 15.1

Interpretative assumptions

either short rates are the culprit

or the liquidity premium is positive

Interpretation 2: Rising yield curves

Causes

either short rates are expected to climb: E[r

n

] E[r

n-1

]

or the liquidity premium is positive

Fig. 15.1B

Interpretative assumptions

estimate the liquidity premium

assume the liquidity premium is constant

empirical evidence

liquidity premium is not constant; past > future?!

Interpretation 3: Inverted yield curve

Easy interpretation

if there is a liquidity premium

then inversion expectations of falling short rates

why would interest rates fall?

inflation vs. real rates

inverted curve recession?

Example

2000 yield curve

4

Interpretation 4: Hump-Shape curve

Interpretation

liquidity?

Example

Spring 00 yield curve

Arbitrage Strategies

Question:

The YTM on 1-year-maturity zero coupon bonds is 5%

The YTM on 2-year-maturity zero coupon bonds is 6%.

The YTM on 2-year-maturity coupon bonds with coupon rates of 12% (paid annually) is

5.8%.

What arbitrage opportunity exists for an investment banking firm? What is the arbitrage

profit?

Arbitrage Strategies

Answer:

The price of the coupon bond, based on its YTM, is:

120 PA(5.8%, 2) + 1000 PF(5.8%, 2) = $1,113.99.

If the coupons were stripped and sold separately as zeros, then based on the YTM of

zeros with maturities of one and two years, the coupon payments could be sold separately

for

[120/1.05] + [1,120/1.06

2

] = $1,111.08.

The arbitrage strategy is to:

buy zeros with face values of $120 and $1,120 and respective maturities of 1 and

2 years

simultaneously sell the coupon bond.

The profit equals $2.91 on each bond.

Fixed Income Portfolio Management

In general, bonds are just securities > CAPM

Specific issues:

Benchmarking bond-fund managers performance

Bond indices & Cellular approach (NOT Exam Material )

Risk

Cash-flow risk (incl. default risk)

Not Exam Material

Interest rate risk: Measurement + Management

Bond Index Funds NOT Exam Matl

Idea

Similar to that behind stock market indices

Problem & Solution

Cellular approach

Bond Index Funds 2 NOT Exam Matl

US indices for investment-grade, 1+ year bonds:

BIG= Citigroup/Solomon Smith Barney Broad Investment Grade

treasuries, agency debt, corporates, 144As, mortgage-backed securities (MBS),

and asset-backed securities (ABS)

The AGG = Lehman U.S. Aggregate Bond

Same + municipals and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS)

Merrill Lynch

Domestic Master (Ticker D0A0): U.S. gvt & corporate public bonds

U.S. Broad Market: also includes MBS, global bonds, Yankee bonds, but

excludes ABS, tax -exempt munis, etc.

None of those indices include TIPS

5

Bond Index Funds 3 NOT Exam Matl

Problems

Lots of securities in each index

4 to 5,000 bonds

difficult to buy all the bonds

Portfolio rebalancing

market liquidity

bonds are dropped (maturities, calls, defaults, )

Bond Index Funds 4 NOT Exam Matl

Solution:

cellular approach (Fig. 16.9)

idea

classify by maturity/risk/category/

compute percentages in each cell

match portfolio weights

effectiveness

average absolute tracking error = 2 to 16 b.p. / month

Bond Index Funds 5 NOT Exam Matl

Cellular approach (Fig. 16.9)

Special risks for bond portfolios

Cash-flow risk

call, default, sinking funds, early repayments,

solution: select high quality bonds

Interest rate risk

bond prices are sensitive to YTM

solution

measure interest rate risk

immunize

Interest Rate Risk

Equation:

P =

Yield sensitivity of Prices:

P yield

Measure?

) 1 ( ) 1 ( 1 r

Par

r

coupon

T

T

t

t

+

+

+

=

Interest Rate Risk 2

Determinants of a bonds yield sensitivity

6

Interest Rate Risk 3

Determinants of a bonds yield sensitivity

Interest Rate Risk 4

Determinants of a bonds yield sensitivity

time to maturity

maturity sensitivity (concave function)

coupon rate

coupon sensitivity

discount bond vs. premium bond

zeroes have the highest sensitivity

intuition: coupon bonds = average of zeroes

YTM

initial YTM sensitivity

Duration

Idea

maturity sensitivity

to measure a bonds yield sensitivity,

measure its effective maturity

Measure

Macaulay duration:

1

) 1 (

1

1 1

= =

+

=

= = P

P

YTM

C

P

w

T

t

t

t

T

t

t

) 1 .( YTM P

C

w

t

t

t

+

=

t

T

t

w t D .

1

=

=

Duration 2

Duration = effective measure of elasticity

Proof

Modified duration

with

+

+

=

YTM

YTM

D

P

P

1

) 1 (

.

[ ] YTM D

P

P

=

.

*

y

D

D

+

=

1

*

Duration 3

Interpretation 1

= average time until bond payment

Price risk & reinvestment risk offset if bond sold at D

Interpretation 2

% price change of coupon bond of a given duration

= % price change of zero with maturity = to duration

t

T

t

w t D .

1

=

=

Duration 4

Example

bond: 2-year, 10% ytm, 8% coupon, annual payments

8%

Bond

Time

years

Payment PV of CF

(10%)

Weight Col.1

times Col.4

72.73 = 80/1.10 1 80 0.0753

= 72.73 / 965.29

0.0753

2 1080

sum

892.56

965.29

0.9247

1.000

1.8494

1.9247

7

Duration 5

Example (Continued)

suppose YTM changes by 1 basis point (0.01%)

either compare the bonds price with YTM = 10.01%

relative to the bonds price with YTM = 10%

or simply compute the price change from the duration

% 0175 . 0

10 . 1

% 10 % 01 . 10

x 9247 . 1

1

) 1 (

. =

+

+

=

YTM

YTM

D

P

P

Duration 6

Example (Spreadsheet 16.1)

1

st

bond: zero coupon with 1.8853 years to maturity

2

nd

bond: 2-year, 10% ytm, 8% coupon, semi-annual

8%

Bond

Time

years

Payment PV of CF

(10%)

Weight Col.1

times Col.4

0.5 40 38.095 = 40 / 1.05 0.0395 0.0197

1 40 36.281 0.0376

= 36.281 / 964.54

0.0376

1.5

2.0

40

1040

sum

34.553

855.611

964.540

0.0358

0.8871

1.000

0.0537

1.7742

1.8852

Duration 7

Example (Continued, Spreadsheet 16.1)

suppose YTM changes by 1 basis point (0.01%)

zero coupon bond with 1.8853 years to maturity

old price

new price

( )

9623 . 831

05 . 1

1000

7706 . 3

= =

( )

6636 . 831

0501 . 1

1000

7706 . 3

= =

+

+

= =

YTM

YTM

D

P

P

1

) 1 (

. % 0359 . 0

9623 . 831

9623 . 831 6636 . 831

Duration 8

Example: (Continued, Spreadsheet 16.1)

suppose YTM changes by 1 basis point (0.01%)

2-year, 8% coupon bond

either compare the bonds price with YTM = 5.01%

relative to the bonds price with YTM = 5%

or simply compute the price change from the duration

% 0359 . 0

05 . 1

% 5 % 01 . 5

x 2 x 8853 . 1

1

) 1 (

. =

+

+

=

YTM

YTM

D

P

P

Duration 9

Properties of duration (other things constant)

zero coupon bond: duration = maturity

time to maturity

maturity duration

exception: deep discount bonds (e.g., 3% bond, Fig. 16.3)

coupon rate

coupon duration

YTM

YTM duration

exception: zeroes (unchanged)

Duration 10

Properties of duration Illustration (Fig. 16.3)

8

Duration 11

Formulae for duration

duration of perpetuity =

less than infinity!

coupon bonds ( annuities + zero)

see book

simplifies if par bond

y

y

D

+

=

1

Duration 12

Importance

simple measure

essential to implement portfolio immunization

measures interest rate sensitivity effectively

Possible Caveats to Duration

1. Assumptions on term structure

Macaulay duration uses YTM

only valid for level changes in flat term structure

Fisher-Weil duration measure (NOT exam material)

=

=

=

+

= =

T

t

t

s

s

t

T

t

t

r

C

t

P

w t D

1

1

1

) 1 (

.

1

.

= =

+

= =

T

t

t

t

T

t

t

YTM

C

t

P

w t D

1 1

) 1 (

.

1

.

Possible Caveats to Duration 2

problems with the Fisher-Weil duration

assumes a parallel shift in term structure

need forecast of future interest rates

bottom line: same issue as for realized compound yield

Cox-Ingersoll-Ross duration (NOT exam material)

Conclusion: lets keep Macaulay

Possible Caveats to Duration 3

2. Convexity

Macaulay duration

first-order approximation:

small changes vs. large changes

duration = point estimate

for larger changes, an arc estimate is needed

solution: add convexity

) 1 ( .

*

YTM D

P

P

+ =

9

Possible Caveats to Duration 5

Convexity (continued)

second-order approximation:

( )

2 *

. .

2

1

. YTM convexity YTM D

P

P

+ =

=

+

+

+

=

T

t

t

t

YTM

C

t t

YTM P

convexity

1

2

2

) 1 (

). (

) 1 (

1

Possible Caveats to Duration 6

Convexity: numerical example

P = Par = 1,000; T = 30 years; 8% annual coupon

computations give D*=11.26 years; convexity = 212.4 years

suppose YTM = 8% > YTM = 10%

% 52 . 22 02 . 0 26 . 11 .

*

= = =

x YTM D

P

P

( ) % 27 . 18 . .

2

1

.

2 *

= + =

P

P

% 85 . 18

000 , 1

000 , 1 46 . 811

=

P

P

Possible Caveats to Duration 7

Is convexity priced?

Attractive > bond A more expensive than B (why?)

Possible Caveats to Duration 8

Convexity for callable bonds

Possible Caveats to Duration 9

Convexity for MBS

Bottom Line on Duration

Very useful

But take it with a grain of salt for large changes

10

Immunization

Why?

obligation to meet promises (pension funds)

protect future value of portfolio

ratios, regulation, solvency (banks)

protect current net worth of institution

How?

measure interest rate risk: duration

match duration of elements to be immunized

Immunization

What?

net worth immunization

match duration of assets and liabilities

target date immunization

match inflows and outflows, immunize the net flows

match duration to holding period

Who?

banks

net worth immunization

insurance companies, pension funds

target date immunization

Net Worth Immunization

Gap management

assets vs. liabilities

long term (mortgages, loans, ) vs. short term (deposits, )

match duration of assets and liabilities

decrease duration of assets (ex.: ARM)

increase duration of liabilities (ex.: term deposits)

condition for success

portfolio duration = 0 (assets = liabilities)

Target Date Immunization

Idea:

Price risk & reinvestment risk offset if bond is sold at D

Example for intuition: Suppose interest rates fall

good for the pension fund

price risk

existing (fixed rate) assets increase in value

bad for the pension fund

reinvestment risk

PV of future liabilities increases

so more must be invested now

Target Date Immunization 2

Idea: Invest in assets with D matching the funds

investment horizon, so that yields dont affect the FV

Implementing this solution/idea

match duration of portfolio and funds horizon

single bond

bond portfolio

duration of portfolio

= weighted average of components duration

condition: assets have equal yields

11

Target Date Immunization 3

Question:

Pension funds pay lifetime annuities to recipients.

Firm expects to be in business indefinitely, its pension obligation perpetuity.

Suppose, your pension fund must make perpetual payments of $2 million/year.

The yield to maturity on all bonds is 16%.

(a) duration of 5-year bonds with coupon rates of 12% (paid annually) is 4 years

duration of 20-year bonds with coupon rates of 6% (paid annually) is 11 years

how much of each of these coupon bonds (in market value) should you hold to both

fully fund and immunize your obligation?

(b) What will be the par value of your holdings in the 20-year coupon bond?

Target Date Immunization 4

Answer:

(a) PV of the firms perpetual obligation = ($2 million/0.16) = $12.5 million.

duration of this obligation = duration of a perpetuity = (1.16/0.16) = 7.25 years.

Denote by w the weight on the 5-year maturity bond, which has duration of 4 years.

Then,

wx 4 + (1 w) x 11 = 7.25, which implies that w= 0.5357. Therefore,

0.5357 x $12.5 = $6.7 million in the 5-year bond and

0.4643 x $12.5 = $5.8 million in the 20-year bond.

The total invested = $(6.7+5.8) million = $12.5 million, fully matching the funding

needs.

Target Date Immunization 5

Answer:

( b ) Price of the 20-year bond = 60 x PA(16%, 20) + 1000 x PF(16%, 20) = $407.11.

Therefore, the bond sells for 0.4071 times Par, and

Market value = Par value x 0.4071

=> $5.8 million = Par value x 0.4071

=> Par value = $14.25 million.

Another way to see this is to note that each bond with a par value of $1,000 sells for

$407.11. If the total market value is $5.8 million, then you need to buy 14,250 bonds,

which results in total par value of $14,250,000.

Dangers with Immunization

1. Portfolio rebalancing is needed

Time passes duration changes

bonds mature, sinking funds,

YTM changes duration changes

example: BKM7 Table 16.4

duration YTM

5 8%

4.97 7%

5.02 9%

Dangers with Immunization 2

2. Duration = nominal concept

immunization only for nominal liabilities

counter example

childrens tuition

why?

solution

do not immunize

buy assets

An Alternative? Cash-Flow Dedication

Buy zeroes

to match all liabilities

Problems

difficult to get underpriced zeroes

zeroes not available for all maturities

example: perpetuity

12

Contingent Immunization

Idea

try to beat the market

while limiting the downside risk

Procedure (Fig. 16.12) NOT Exam Material

compute the PV of the obligation at current rates

assess available funds

play the difference

immunize if trigger point is hit

Contingent Immunization 2

Procedure (Fig. 16.12)

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