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org
ISSN 2224-3216 !a"er# ISSN 222$-%&4' (nline#
)ol.4* No.1$* 2%14

14'
Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Availability of
Bilate Watershed, Ethiopian Rift Valley Basin

+,adi -e.le
/e"artment of 0ater 1esources and Irrigation Engineering* +.sum 2niversit3* Shire* Ethio"ia
!( ,o4 314* Shire* Ethio"ia
E-mail5 te.lea,adi63ahoo.com

7assa -adele

/e"artment of 0ater 1esources and Irrigation Engineering* +r,a 8inch 2niversit3* +r,a 8inch* Ethio"ia
!( ,o4 21* +r,a 8inch * Ethio"ia
E-mail5 .assatad63ahoo.com

Abstract
Nowada3s climate change is e4"ected to affect societ3 in a num,er of wa3s ranging from food securit3 to water
resources. 0ater "la3s an im"ortant role in the socio-economic develo"ment of an3 societ3. -hus* this stud3
mainl3 deals with assessing climate change im"act on water availa,ilit3 of 9ilate watershed* Ethio"ian 1ift
)alle3 9asin. -he watershed is situated in Ethio"ian 1ift )alle3 9asin and covers an area of a,out 3643 .m
2
in
which 9ilate river is the main river flowing throughout the 3ear.-o "ro:ect the "ro,a,le im"act of climate
change on the availa,le water* ;ad<83 cou"led atmos"here-ocean =<8 model was used since it is the onl3
=<8 model that has grid ,o4 containing the stud3 area for S/S8. -he out"ut of ;ad<83 cou"led atmos"here-
ocean =<8 model for the +2a and 92a S1ES emission scenarios were used to "roduce future scenarios of
"reci"itation and tem"erature. <limate change scenarios of "reci"itation and tem"erature were develo"ed at two
u""er and lower stations of the watershed for three "eriods namel3> 2%2%s 2%11-2%4%#* 2%$%s 2%41-2%?%# and
2%'%s 2%?%-2%&& and their res"ective changes were determined as deltas for tem"erature# and as "ercentages
for "reci"itation# from the ,ase "eriod values. -he future climate varia,le such as dail3 "reci"itation* ma4imum
and minimum tem"erature found as an out"ut from the =<8 model and downscaled ,3 the S/S8 model and
li.el3 change in land use were given directl3 as an in"ut to the S0+- model. -he S0+- simulation of future
average annual flow shows a decreasing trend in 2%11-2%4% "eriods and an increasing trend in 2%41-2%?%
"eriods. -he average total annual flow at outlet of the watershed might decrease u" to 3.?@ for +2a scenario and
1.$@ for 92a scenario for the 2%11-2%4% "eriods ,ut for 2%41-2%?% "eriods it might increase u" to 2.6@ for +2a
scenario and 3.?@ for 92a scenario. -he decrease in the future flow of 2%11-2%4% "eriods might ,e insufficient
in some months to meet future demands for water of the ever increasing "o"ulation with in and around the
watershed. +do"ting water storage o"tions to store the e4cess water flowing during the rain3 "eriod is crucial.
Keywords5 +2a* 92a* 9ilate* <limate <hange* Ethio"ia* =<8* ;ad<83* 1ift )alle3* Scenario* S/S8* S1ES*
S0+-* 0ater storage

Introdction
<limate change is associated with glo,al warming that is induced ,3 the increase in car,on dio4ide and other
radioactive trace gases in the atmos"here. -his was the focus of scientific investigations due to the fact that
climate change has significant im"lications for the environment* ecos3stems* water resources and virtuall3 ever3
as"ect of human life I!<<* 2%%1#.
-he most im"ortant and immediate effects of glo,al warming would ,e the changes in local and
regional water availa,ilit3* since the climate s3stem is interactive with h3drologic c3cle +1(1+ and 9(E1*
1&&6#
Ethio"ia is vulnera,le to climate change since the econom3 of the countr3 mainl3 de"ends on
agriculture* which is ver3 sensitive to climate change and variations. In 9ilate watershed the increase in
"o"ulation growth* economic develo"ment together with climate change is e4"ected to cause an increase of
water demand for different "ur"oses.
/ue to climate change* water and its availa,ilit3 and Aualit3 will ,e the main "ressures on* and issues
for* societies and the environment. <limate change also increase the vulnera,ilit3 of ecos3stems due to
tem"erature increases* changes in "reci"itation "atterns* freAuent severe weather events such as flooding and
"rolonged droughts I!<<* 2%%?#.
(wing to ra"id growth in "o"ulation* the need for the o"timum develo"ment of water resources has
,ecome more urgent than ever. !o"ulation distri,ution* irrigated agriculture* ur,an and industrial water use are
ma:or factors deriving water availa,ilit3 issues. -he im"act of climate change on water availa,ilit3 of 9ilate
watershed is not well investigated in terms of ,oth Auantit3 and Aualit3.
-he stud3 was conducted to assess im"acts of climate change on water availa,ilit3 of the watershed ,3
Journal of Environment and Earth Science www.iiste.org
ISSN 2224-3216 !a"er# ISSN 222$-%&4' (nline#
)ol.4* No.1$* 2%14

14&
develo"ing tem"oral climate change scenarios "reci"itation and tem"erature# for the future "eriods of 2%11-
2%&& and to Auantif3 the "ossi,le im"acts of the climate change on the availa,le water for the "eriod of 2%11 till
2%?% using S0+- model.

!tdy area and "ata availability
-he stud3 area is situated in the southwestern "art of Ethio"ia and it is one of the ma:or watersheds in the
Ethio"ian 1ift )alle3 9asins which is named as 9ilate watershed. It is located roughl3 ,etween 3?
%
4?B6BB to
3'
%
2%B14BB E and 6
%
33B1'BB to '
%
6B$?BBN latitudes and longitudes res"ectivel3. -he watershed covers a drainage
area of a,out 3643 .m
2
.
-he watershed is usuall3 classified in to three su,-,asins5 the u""er* the middle and the lower su,-
,asins with total annual rainfall of 12'%-133&* 1%61-1$16* and ?6&-&$6mm res"ectivel3.
=enerall3* in the highlands of 9ilate watershed li.e ;ossana* the mean annual tem"erature varies from 11
o
c in
+ugust to 22
o
c in 8archC+"ril while the tem"erature variation in the lower "art of 9ilate 9ilate farm# generall3
is higher and ranges ,etween 16
o
c in Jul3 to 3%
o
c in Januar3 and 8arch. -he elevation of 9ilate watershed
ranges ,etween 334? meter a.m.s.l in the north and 14%' meter in the south with a mean elevation of 2%13.4
meters.
8eteorological data was collected from the Ethio"ian National 8eteorolog3 +genc3 as the3 are
reAuired for downscaling the =<8 data using Statistical /ownscaling 8odel S/S8# and as an in"ut to the Soil
and 0ater +ssessment -ool S0+-# model. Stream flow data were also collected from Ethio"ian 8inistr3 of
0ater 1esources 8o01# for cali,rating and validating S0+- model. -he climate scenario data used for
Statistical /ownscaling 8odel was o,tained from the <anadian Institute for climate studies we,site for model
out"ut of ;ad<83.

#ethodological Approach
-he general methodolog3 consists of using climatic out"ut data from general <irculation models =<8s# to
retrieve climate scenarios. -he weather generator was then used to "roduce dail3 tem"erature and "reci"itation
data to serve as an in"ut data for the S0+- h3drological model to simulate stream flow. -he future simulated
results were then com"ared with the ,ase line "eriod as a means of o,taining the change caused ,3 climate
change. -he detail methodolog3 of the stud3 is clearl3 stated ,elow.

!tatistical "ownscaling #odel $!"!#%
Climate change scenario
-he climate change scenarios "roduced for this stud3 were ,ased on the out"uts of =<8 results that are
esta,lished on the S1ES emission scenarios. -he out"uts of ;ad<83 =<8 model for the +2 and 92 emission
scenarios were used to "roduce the future scenarios. -he S/S8 was ado"ted to downscale the glo,al scale
out"uts of the ;ad<83 model out"uts into the local watershed scale. +s descri,ed ,3 !D+8E1 et al* 2%%4#*
this method is advantageous as it is eas3 to im"lement* and generation of the downscaled values involves
o,served historic dail3 data. -he latter advantage ensures the maintenance of local s"atial and tem"oral
varia,ilit3 in generating realistic time series data.
-he future time scales from the 3ear 2%11 until 2%&& were divided into three "eriods of 3% 3ears and their
res"ective changes were determined as deltas for tem"erature# and as "ercentages for "reci"itation# from the
,ase "eriod values.

&adC#'( Copled Atmosphere)*cean +C# model
-he ;ad<83 model was selected for the im"act stud3 due to the availa,ilit3 of a downscaling model called
S/S8 that is used to downscale the result of ;ad<83 and <=<81 models. <onseAuentl3* all the data files
used in this stud3 were onl3 for the ;ad<83 =<8. -he model results are availa,le for the +2 and 92 scenarios*
where +2 is referred to as the medium high emissions scenario and 92 as the medium low emissions scenario.
Eor two of these emission scenarios three ensem,le mem,ers a* ,* and c# are availa,le* where each refer to a
different initial "oint of climate "ertur,ation along the control run ;+NS(N* 2%%4#. /uring this stud3 data
were availa,le onl3 for the FaG ensem,les and hence onl3 the +2a and 92a scenarios were considered.

!"!# #odel approach
+s 9ilate Earm and ;ossana stations have long continuous records and are well distri,uted in the watershed
these two stations are used for downscaling glo,al climate change to local im"act assessment. ;ence* future
climate varia,les such as "reci"itation* ma4imum and minimum tem"erature of those two stations were
com"ared with the ,ase "eriod. -he .e3 functions of S/S8 such as Hualit3 <ontrol and /ata -ransformation*
Screening of /ownscaling !redictor )aria,les* 8odel <ali,ration* 0eather =enerator and )alidation and
Scenario =eneration has ,een done ,ased on universal settings used in the model "rovided ,3 0ID9I and
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1$%
/+0S(N* 2%%?. -he ,ase "eriod used for the model was from 1C1C1&?2 to 31C12C2%%1 for ,oth stations. 9ased
on the selected "redictor varia,les model cali,ration was done for 1$ 3ears from 1&?&-1&&3 for 9ilate Earm and
2% 3ears from 1&?2-1&&1 for ;ossana stations at a monthl3 model t3"e in order to see the monthl3 tem"oral
variations. -he result of the weather generator was used to validate the cali,rated model using inde"endent
o,served data not used during the cali,ration "rocedure and the s3nthesiJed artificial weather time series data
re"resenting the "resent condition. Eight 3ears of simulation from 1&&4-2%%1 was used for validation at 9ilate
farm station and ten 3ears 1&&2-2%%1 was used for ;ossana station. ;ad<83+2a and ;ad<8392a were the two
=<8 out"ut files used for the scenario generation and the regression weights "roduced during the cali,ration
"rocess were a""lied to the time series out"uts of the =<8 model. -went3 ensem,les of s3nthetic dail3 time
series data were "roduced for each of the two S1ES scenarios for a "eriod of 13& 3ears 1&61 to 2%&&#. -he final
"roduct of the S/S8 downscaling method was then found ,3 averaging the twent3 inde"endent stochastic =<8
ensem,les and com"arison was done ,etween o,served and downscaled ,ase line future dataBs. 9aseline
scenarios* which reflect current conditions* were initiall3 e4ecuted "rior to "erforming the scenario simulations.
+ccordingl3 3%-3ear "eriod from1&?2-2%%1 was selected for ,oth 9ilate Earm and ;ossana stations to re"resent
,aseline. -he future scenarios were develo"ed ,3 dividing the future time series in to three eAual "eriods of 3%
3ears5 2%11-2%4%* 2%41-2%?%* 2%?1-2%&&.

!oil and Water Assessment ,ool $!WA,% hydrological model
Eor this stud3 S0+- h3drological model was selected for the im"act assessment as the model is "h3sicall3
,ased* s"atiall3 distri,uted* and it ,elongs to the "u,lic domain and DEN+;+1- et al* 2%%2#* and
com"utationall3 efficient h3drological model* which uses readil3 availa,le in"uts.
0atersheds were su,divided into su, watersheds and further into h3drologic res"onse units ;12s# to
account for differences in soils* land use* cro"s* to"ogra"h3* weather* etc. -he model has a weather generator su,
routine that generates dail3 values of "reci"itation* air tem"erature* solar radiation* wind s"eed* and relative
humidit3 from statistical "arameters derived from average monthl3 values. S0+- has three o"tions for
estimating "otential eva"otrans"iration5 ;argreaves* !riestle3--a3lor* and !enman-8onteith in which
;argreaves method was selected at it reAuires air tem"erature onl3. S0+- s"lits h3drological simulations of a
watershed into two ma:or "hases5 the land "hase and the routing "hase. -he difference ,etween the two lies on
the fact that water storage and its influence on flow rates is considered in channeliJed flow NEI-S<; et al*
2%%2#. -wo weather generator stations such as 9ilate Earm and ;ossana were selected to generate missing
weather data in S0+- simulation model. Eor data generation* weather "arameters were develo"ed using the
weather "arameter calculator 0K!+18 0IDDI+8S* 1&&1# and /ew "oint tem"erature calculator /E0%2
DIE1S<;* 2%%3#.

!ensitivity analysis, Calibration and Validation
-he sensitivit3 anal3sis in this stud3 was underta.en ,3 using a ,uilt-in tool in S0+- that uses the Datin
;3"ercu,e (ne-factor-+t-a--ime D;-(+-# design method of 8orris 1&&1#. +fter the anal3sis* the mean
relative sensitivit3 81S# of the "arameters was used to ran. the "arameters and their categor3 of sensitivit3 was
also defined ,ased on the DEN+;+1- et al* 2%%2#* classification such as ver3 high* high* medium and small.
/EDNES+0* 2%%6#* indicated that there can ,e a significant variation of h3drological "rocesses ,etween
individual watersheds. -his* therefore* :ustified the need for the sensitivit3 anal3sis made for each of the two su,
watersheds in the stud3 area. -he anal3sis involved a total of 26 "arameters.
8odel simulations were evaluated ,3 using mean* standard deviation* regression coefficient 1
2
#* and
the Nash and Suttcliffe simulation efficienc3 E
NS
# Nash and Suttcliffe 1&?%#.
+ com,ination of ,oth manual and automatic cali,ration method was used for the model simulation.
Eirst manual cali,ration has ,een used mainl3 for annual water ,alance and it was followed ,3 automatic
cali,ration. -he cali,ration was done using historical records of five 3ears. ;owever* the simulation was run for
si4 3ears* where the first 3ear was used to Fwarm-upG the model. In the validation "rocess* data for a "eriod of
three 3ears was used to evaluate the model accurac3. -he statistical criteria used during the cali,ration "rocedure
were also chec.ed here to ma.e sure that the simulated volume is still within the accurac3 limits.

!WA, #odel !etp
-he model setu" involved five ste"s5 1# data "re"aration* 2# su, ,asin discretiJation* 3# ;12 definition* 4#
"arameter sensitivit3 anal3sis* $# cali,ration and uncertaint3 anal3sis. -he reAuired s"atial data sets were
"ro:ected to the same "ro:ection called 0=S 1&'4L2-8 Mone 3? N* which is the transverse 8ercator "ro:ection
"arameters for Ethio"ia* using +rc =IS &.2. -he Dand useCDand cover s"atial data were reclassified into S0+-
land coverC"lant t3"es. -he S0+- codes for the different categories of land coverCland use were feed manuall3
on the ma" as "er the reAuired format. -he soil ma" was lin.ed with the soil data-,ase which is a soil data,ase
designed to hold data for soils not included in the 2.S. -he watershed delineation "rocess includes five ma:or
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ste"s such as /E8 setu"* stream definition* outlet and inlet definition* watershed outlets selection and definition
and calculation of su, ,asin "arameters. Eor the stream definition the threshold ,ased stream definition o"tion
was used to define the minimum siJe of the su, ,asin. -he +rc S0+- interface allows the user to fi4 the
num,er of su, ,asins ,3 deciding the initial threshold area. -he s"atiall3 distri,uted data =IS in"ut# needed for
the +rc S0+- interface include the /igital Elevation 8odel /E8#* soil data* and land use data. /ata on
weather and flow is used for "rediction of water ,alance and cali,ration "ur"oses res"ectivel3.

"etermination of Impacted -tre -low rate
S0+- was a""lied to simulate the im"acts of climate change on river flow ,3 assuming that change in
"reci"itation* tem"erature and land use in the future from ,ase line "eriod affects flow volume. -he future
climate varia,le such as dail3 "reci"itation* ma4imum and minimum tem"erature found as an out"ut from the
=<8 model and downscaled ,3 the S/S8 model and assumed change in land use were given directl3 as an
in"ut to the S0+- model. (ther climate varia,les such as wind s"eed* solar radiation* and relative humidit3
were assumed to ,e constant throughout the future simulation "eriods. -he future two "eriods* 2%11-2%4% and
2%41-2%?% of ,oth 9ilate Earm and ;ossana station dataBs o,tained from S/S8 out"ut and change in land use
were used as an in"ut in S0+- model to determine the im"act of climate change on future stream flow volume.
-he S0+- simulation for the 1&&1 to 2%1% "eriod was used as a ,aseline "eriod against which the climate
im"act was assessed. -he S0+- model was then re-run for the future "eriods with the downscaled out"ut of
climate varia,les and assumed land use changes to com"are them with the ,aseline "eriod model results.

Reslts and "iscssions
Climate change model reslts
!cenarios developed for base period
Even though the S/S8 model "erforms reasona,l3 well in estimating the mean monthl3 "reci"itation at 9ilate
farm in man3 months ,ut in some months es"eciall3 in rain3 seasons such as +"ril* 8a3* and Jul3 there is a
relativel3 large model errors. 9ut at ;ossana station S/S8 doesnBt a,le to simulate e4ce"t for some months
such as Januar3* Ee,ruar3 and (cto,er. -his is to mean that* the model underestimates in months of +"ril to
Se"tem,er. 9ut the model overestimates in months of 8arch* Novem,er and /ecem,er. -he result* however*
can ,e ta.en as satisfactor3 in such a wa3 that "reci"itation downscaling is necessaril3 more "ro,lematic
,ecause of dail3 "reci"itation amounts at individual sites are relativel3 "oorl3 resolved ,3 regional scale
"redictors than tem"erature.


Eig15 +verage dail3 "reci"itation at 9ilate Earm and ;ossana station for the ,ase "eriod 1&?2-2%%1#.

0ith res"ect to monthl3 ma4imum tem"erature at ,oth stations* the S/S8 model slightl3 underestimates for
some months such as Januar3* Ee,ruar3 and 8arch ,ut in some months li.e Jul3* +ugust and Se"tem,er there is
overestimation of the model. In other months the downscaled ma4imum tem"erature shows good agreement with
o,served values.

0
2
4
6
J
A
N
M
A
R
M
A
Y
J
U
L
S
E
P
N
O
V
M
e
a
n

d
a
i
l
y

p
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
(
m
m
)
Time (month)
OBSERVED
A2a-Scenario
B2a-Scenario
0
1
2
3
4
M
e
a
n

d
a
i
l
y

p
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
(
m
m
)
Time (month)
OBSERVED
A2a-Scenario
B2a-Scenario
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Eig25 +verage monthl3 ma4imum tem"erature at 9ilate Earm and ;ossana station for the ,ase "eriod 1&?2-
2%%1#.
1egarding the minimum tem"erature at ,oth stations e4ce"t for month of (cto,er and /ecem,er* the model
slightl3 underestimates for all other months ,ut in a month of Novem,er there is overestimation of the model. In
general* the generated minimum tem"erature follows the same trend with that of o,served ones.

Eig35 +verage monthl3 minimum tem"erature at 9ilate Earm and ;ossana station for the ,ase "eriod 1&?2-
2%%1#.

!cenarios developed for the ftre period
+s +2a and 92a scenarios generated values are not significantl3 different we will tr3 to see the future change of
either +2a or 92a scenario for all the climatic varia,les.
9ased on the "reci"itation scenario generated at 9ilate farm station* generall3 the average monthl3 "reci"itation
shows an increasing trend from the ,ase "eriod. 9ut in the months of 8arch and Se"tem,er the average monthl3
"reci"itation shows a decrease from the ,ase "eriod. -he increase in average monthl3 "reci"itation might ,e
higher es"eciall3 during +ugust* Novem,er and /ecem,er. In the case of ;ossana station* generall3 the average
monthl3 "reci"itation shows a decreasing trend from the ,ase "eriod. ;owever* in months of Novem,er and
/ecem,er there might ,e an increase of monthl3 "reci"itation.


Eig45 !ercentage change in average monthl3 "reci"itation in the future from the ,ase "eriod at 9ilate Earm and
;ossana stations.
Eor 9ilate Earm station* the downscaled ma4imum tem"erature scenario indicates that there might ,e an
increasing trend from Januar3 to June for from the ,ase "eriod. 9ut from Jul3 to /ecem,er the "ro:ected
ma4imum tem"erature shows a decreasing trend for ,oth scenarios. In case of ;osanna station* the downscaled
ma4imum tem"erature scenario indicates that there will ,e generall3 an increasing trend from Januar3 to June
es"eciall3 for the "eriods of 2%11-2%4% and 2%?1-2%&&. 9ut for the "eriod of 2%41-2%?% there is a decreasing
0
5
10
15
20
25
J
A
N
M
A
R
M
A
Y
J
U
L
S
E
P
N
O
V
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

m
o
n
t
h
l
y

m
a
x

t
e
m
p
(
o
c
)
Time (month)
OBSERVED
A2a-Scenario
B2a-Scenario
0
5
10
15
J
A
N
M
A
R
M
A
Y
J
U
L
S
E
P
N
O
V
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

m
o
n
t
h
l
y

m
i
n

t
e
m
p
(
o
c
)
Time (month)
OBSERVED
A2a-Scenario
B2a-Scenario
-50
0
50
JAN MARMAY JUL SEP NOV
C
h
a
n
g
e

i
n

p
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
(
%
)
Time (month)
A2a-Scenario
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-20
0
10
20
30
J
A
N
M
A
R
M
A
Y
J
U
L
S
E
P
N
O
V
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

m
o
n
t
h
l
y

m
a
x

t
e
m
p
(
o
c
)
Time (month)
OBSERVED
A2aScenario
B2a-Scenario
0
3
6

12
15
1!
J
A
N
M
A
R
M
A
Y
J
U
L
S
E
P
N
O
V
A
v
e
r
a
g
e

m
o
n
t
h
l
y

m
i
n

t
e
m
p
(
o
c
)
Time (month)
OBSERVED
A2a-Scenario
B2a-Scenario
-50
0
50
C
h
a
n
g
e

i
n

p
r
e
c
i
p
i
t
a
t
i
o
n
(
%
)
Time (month)
A2a-Scenario
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-20
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trend. 9ased on monthl3 ,asis* from Jul3 to /ecem,er the "ro:ected ma4imum tem"erature shows a decreasing
trend.

Eig$5 <hange in average monthl3 ma4imum tem"erature in the future from the ,ase "eriod at 9ilate Earm and
;ossana stations.
Eor 9ilate Earm station* li.e "reci"itation and ma4imum tem"erature scenario generated* the average monthl3
minimum tem"erature also indicates that there is an increasing trend from the ,ase "eriod. 9ut there is a slight
decrease in (cto,er and Novem,er. Eor ;osanna station* the change in average monthl3 minimum tem"erature
will ,e ,etween -$.%
o
c in (cto,er 2%?%-2%&& "eriod# and N$.4
o
c in June 2%?%-2%&& "eriod#.


Eig65 <hange in average monthl3 minimum tem"erature in the future from the ,ase "eriod at 9ilate farm and
;ossana stations.

!WA, &ydrological #odel Reslts
-low Calibration and validation
-he cali,ration results show that there is a good agreement ,etween the simulated and gauged monthl3 flows at
the out let of the watershed i.e. at 9ilate -ena gauging station. -his is demonstrated ,3 the correlation coefficient
1
2
O%.?& and 1
2
O%.?6 during cali,ration and validation "eriod#* the Nash-Suttcliffe 1&?%# simulation efficienc3
E
NS
O%.??and E
NS
O%.?$ during cali,ration and validation "eriod# and "ercent deviation /O1.'3 and /O-2.4'
during cali,ration and validation "eriod#. -he results fulfilled the reAuirements suggested ,3 Santhi et al, 2%%1#
for 1P Q%.6 and E
NS
Q %.$.

Eig?5 <ali,ration and validation result of average monthl3 simulated and gauged flows at the outlet of 9ilate
watershed.
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Journal of Environment and Earth Science www.iiste.org
ISSN 2224-3216 !a"er# ISSN 222$-%&4' (nline#
)ol.4* No.1$* 2%14

1$4
Annal Water Balance
+verage annual water ,alance for ,oth cali,ration and validation "eriod result from simulation showed that the
largest "ortion of the average annual "reci"itation ?6.26@# falling in the watershed is lost through eva"oration.
-his value indicates that there is high sensitivit3 of eva"otrans"iration to an3 change than an3 other h3drologic
"arameter governing the su, watershedsB water ,alance.

-a,le15 +verage annual water ,alance for ,oth <ali,ration and )alidation "eriods.
;3drological
"arameter
Simulated valuesmm#
0eighted
average
@ of 3earl3
"reci"itation
cali,ration
"eriod1&&2-1&&6#
)alidation
"eriod1&&'-2%%%#
!reci"itation 11$1.3% 11?'.6% 1161.$4
Surface runoff 62.?? '1.21 6&.6& 6.%%
9ase flow 4$.&2 4$.&6 4$.&4 3.&$
1eva"CShallow +H
recharges 12%.'2 11$.41 11'.?& 1%.23
/ee" +H recharges ?.1% 6.?1 6.&$ %.6%
-otal +H recharge 142.%3 134.12 13&.%6 11.&?
-otal water 3ield 1%?.66 12$.1& 114.23 &.'3
"ercolation out of soil 141.44 134.$% 13'.'4 11.&$
+ctual
Eva"otrans"iration ''?.%% ''3.?% ''$.?6 ?6.26
-ransmission losses 1.%2 %.&' 1.%1 %.%&
Climate Change Impact on -tre -low
Impact on Future Monthly Flow

Fig8: +verage monthl3 flow "attern at the out let of the watershed.
In ,oth +2a and 92a scenarios there is a slight increase of average monthl3 flow in months of Se"tem,er*
(cto,er* Novem,er* /ecem,er and Januar3. (n the other hand* there is a slight decrease of average monthl3
flow in other months. =enerall3* the decreasing and increasing "attern seems to ,e higher in the time "eriod of
2%11-2%4%. In general there is a decrease of ,ase flow during dr3 months ,ut during the rain3 months there is an
increase of "ea. surface flow.
Impact on -tre !easonal and Annal -low

Eig&5 +verage total seasonal and annual flow "attern at the out let of the watershed.
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JAN MARMAY JUL SEP NOV
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#MAM$ #JJAS$ #ONDJ%$ Ann&a'
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Eig1%5 !ercentage change of average total seasonal and annual flow "attern at the out let of the watershed
In general the average total seasonal flow shows decreasing "attern in month of 8arch to Se"tem,er for +2a
scenario ,ut for 92a scenario it is almost constant. 9ut in months of (cto,er to Ee,ruar3 there might ,e an
increasing "attern of average total seasonal flow in ,oth scenarios. In 2%11-2%4% "eriod* the average total annual
flow might decrease ,3 3.?@ and 1.$@ for +2a and 92a scenarios res"ectivel3. 9ut in 2%41-2%?% "eriod* it
might increase ,3 2.6@ and 3.?@ for +2a and 92a scenarios res"ectivel3. -his decrease of average total annual
flow in ,oth scenarios in 2%11-2%4% "eriod might ,e due to the fact that decrease of a total average annual
"reci"itation in ;ossana station is higher than the increase of "reci"itation in 9ilate farm station and slight
increase of annual minimum tem"erature in ,oth scenarios of 9ilate station in S/S8 out "uts results.

Climate change adaptation strategies
In general ada"tation to climate change "ro,lems causing reduction in the total water 3ield can ,e the range of
actions ta.en in res"onse to changes in local and regional climatic conditions. -hese res"onses include
autonomous ada"tation* i.e.* actions ta.en ,3 individual actors such as single farmers or agricultural
organiJations* as well as "lanned ada"tation* i.e.* climate-s"ecific infrastructure develo"ment* regulations and
incentives "ut in "lace ,3 regional* national and international "olicies in order to com"lement* enhance andCor
facilitate res"onses ,3 farmers and organiJations. Eor the 2%11-2%4% "eriods* watershed ,ased integrated water
resource management a""roach is the "ossi,le ada"tation o"tions to ,e im"lemented to overcome the reduction
of average monthl3 flow in some months of the watershed.

Conclusions and Recommendations
-he S/S8 has good a,ilit3 to re"licate the historical ma4imum and minimum tem"eratures than "reci"itation.
+ S0+- h3drological model simulation has shown that the model is a,le to simulate the o,served stream flow
in the watershed reasona,l3. -his is "roved during cali,ration and validation "eriod of the model "erformance
criterion such as regression coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe used to evaluate the model.
-he change in climate varia,les such as decrease in "reci"itation and increase in tem"erature there,3 increase in
eva"otrans"iration which is ver3 sensitive "arameter that can ,e affected ,3 changing climate than an3 other
h3drological com"onent are li.el3 to have significant im"act on Stream flow. -here is an increase of water
demand due to an increase of human need of water for different "ur"oses. -his in com,ination of the future
climate change im"act on reduction of the availa,le water in the watershed causes a water stress within and
around the watershed.

References
1. +1(1+ and 9(E1. 1&&6#. The effect of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river asins.
0ater resource 1es.Su,mitted.
2. /EDNES+0. 2%%6#. 8odelling of ;3drolog3 and Soil erosion of u""er +wash 1iver ,asin* !h/ -hesis*
2niversit3 of 9onn. 233"".
3. ;+NS(N. 2%%4#. Emmision scenario de"endencies in climate change assessment of the h3drologic c3cle.
!arth and !nvironmental "ceince * vol.&&* No.1-2* 321-32&"".
4. I!<<. 2%%1#. -he Scientific 9asis* -echnical Summar3 of the 0or.ing grou" I. #$ousghton,%.t.,&.
'ing.'.%. (riggs,).*oguer, +.%. ,ander -inden, .. 'ani /. )as0ell, and C.1. %honsouleds2. Comridge
3niversity press, Comridge, 3nited /ingdom and *ew your0,*&, 3"1 * &4"".
$. I!<<* +14. 2%%?#. Climate Change 4556, "ynthesis report. "ummary for +olicyma0ers. )alentia* S"ain
6. DEN+;+1- et al. 2%%2#. <om"arison of two different a""roaches of sensitivit3 anal3sis* !h3sics and
<hemistr3 of the earth 2?. !lsevier science -T' * 64$-6$4"".
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15"0
20"0
A2a B2a A2a B2a A2a B2a A2a B2a
#MAM$ #JJAS$ #ONDJ%$ Ann&a'
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Journal of Environment and Earth Science www.iiste.org
ISSN 2224-3216 !a"er# ISSN 222$-%&4' (nline#
)ol.4* No.1$* 2%14

1$6
?. DIE1S<;. 2%%3#. /ew%2 usersR 8annual. $"".
'. NEI-S<; et al. 2%%2#. -heoretical /ocumentation* version 2%%2. (rass land "oil and 7ater Research
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sources. %ournal of the 1merican 7ater Resource 1ssociation * )ol 3?*116&-11''"".
1%. !D+8E1 et al. 2%%4#. :mpact of climate change on the Tualatin River 8asin water supply. 1n
investigation in to the projected hydrologic and management impacts. /e"artment of <ivil and Environmenteal
Engineering* 2niversit3 of 0ashington.
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