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Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Vol. 4, No.

3, August 2014 153



ISSN 2277-5056 | 2014 Bonfring
Abstract--- Manpower is a term which means a group of
person who has acquired some particular skill or
expertisation to undertake a particular type of job. Manpower
planning is an important aspect of human resource
management based on mathematical and statistical modeling.
Loss of manpower is unpredictable; a suitable requirement
policy has to be designed to overcome this loss. Determination
of expected time to recruitment, and the likely time at which
the total manpower loss reaches a particular level called
threshold is an important aspect. In this paper the expected
time to recruitment and its variance are derived by assuming
two parameter type I generalized logistic distribution using
the concept of Shock model and cumulative damage process.
The breakdown point at which the organization crosses the
threshold level is also derived. The analytical results are
substantiated with suitable numerical illustrations.
Keywords--- Generalized Logistic Distribution, Manpower
Loss, Shock Model Approach, Threshold Level
.
I. INTRODUCTION
ANPOWER is a term which means a group of person
who has acquired some particular skill or expertisation
to undertake a particular type of job. In the national level
human resources development is an important aspect of study
and the manpower planning has to be done taking into
consideration the dynamic of manpower availability and
requirements. With advancement of civilization, science and
technology, manpower is required to deal with complex
problems of varying nature in different areas of real life, of
course required with specialization and skill. All these
associated problems of manpower requirements warrant a
systematic approach to the study of manpower planning. The
industrial and administrative environment and structure
largely contribute to the socio-economic welfare of any nation.
The availability of appropriate type of manpower is an
important factor that contributes to the task force available for
the completion of planned jobs and projects including
industrial production. The rapid advancement of science and
technology has thoroughly changed the conventional
requirements of manpower to complete the jobs. It is in this

R. Elangovan, Department of Statistics, Annamalai University,
Annamalai Nagar- 608 002. E-mail:srelangovan@rediffmail.com
T. Ramani, Research Scholar, Annamalai University, Annamalai Nagar-
608 002.

DOI: 10.9756/BIJIEMS.10308
context the human resources development has undergone a
rational change over the years. Hence the methods manpower
planning has become more complex as it includes the
determination of the equilibrium of manpower supply and
demands. Mathematical and Stochastic models have been
applied to a large extent for the conceptualization of real life
situations as appropriate mathematical model. Such a process
enables the achievement of solutions, which would be precise
and advantageous. Manpower planning is an interdisciplinary
activity. It requires the combined technical skills of
Statisticians, economists and behavioral scientists together
with the practical knowledge of managers and planners. At
the national level, manpower planning aims to make the best
use of the nations human resources. This involves the attempt
to forecast the demand and supply for people with various
skills and qualifications and to bring them into balance. At the
level of the firm manpower planning deals with problems of
recruitment, wastage, retention, promotion and transfer of
people within the firm and in relation to its environment.
Manpower planning techniques have become an essential tool
for the modern managers, especially in a climate of economic
recession and government cut-backs. Further, manpower
planning is an aspects of human resource management based
on, mathematical and statistical modeling. Loss of manpower
is unpredictable; a suitable requirement policy has to be
designed to overcome this loss. Determination of expected
time to recruitment, and the likely time at which the total
manpower loss reaches a particular level called threshold is an
important aspect. The idea of Shock model and cumulative
damage process introduced by Esary et al., [7]. For a detailed
account of Shock model and cumulative damage process, one
can also refer, Barlow and Proschan [4]. Some interesting
results can also be seen in Thangaraj and Stanley [18]. In this
paper the expected time to recruitment and its variance are
derived by assuming two parameter type I generalized logistic
distribution using the concept of Shock model and cumulative
damage process. The breakdown point at which the
organization crosses the threshold level is also derived. The
analytical results are substantiated with suitable numerical
illustrations.
II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The application of stochastic processes is the study of
manpower planning which introduced a new area. The greatest
advantage of application of stochastic processes is that any
real life situation can be conceptualized as a mathematical
model and the optimal solution can be derived by using
standard techniques. It may be observed that if, the initial
Shock Model Approach to Determine the Expected
Time to Recruitment using Two Parameter Type I
Generalized Logistic Distribution
R. Elangovan and T. Ramani


M
Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2014 154

ISSN 2277-5056 | 2014 Bonfring
solution is not satisfactory, the model can be reformulated and
an improved solution can be derived. The formulation of
suitable policies which would be profitable for the
organizations is achieved by use of stochastic models in
manpower planning.
A brief review of literature relating to the current work has
been discussed as follows; a brief idea of trends in manpower
management has been discussed by Walker [22] who has
enlisted various problems in manpower management such as
evaluation of individual performance, predictive instruments
within any organization to identify potential talent. A full-
fledged discussion about the statistical approach in manpower
planning is discussed by Bartholomew [23] in which a
description of manpower system along with the historical
development of the subject, elementary theory of labour
wastage and measures of wastage are given. An analysis of
flows in a manpower system is discussed by Butlers [25]. A
descriptive survey of the manpower planning models and
techniques can be seen in Brayant et al., [24]. Mathematical
aspects of manpower planning have been dealt in detail by
Vajda [26]. A statistical problem of prediction and control in
manpower planning is discussed by Bartholomew [27].
Manpower planning with uncertain requirements is discussed
by Grinold [28]. A series of papers by McClean [29, 30, 31,
32] discusses number of models for manpower planning, along
with appropriate techniques. Among the papers which are
directed towards the study of wastage, the paper by Lesson
[33] is an interesting one.
A survey of manpower planning models and their
application is discussed by Edwards [34]. Estimation for
incomplete manpower data has been discussed by McClean
and Gribbin [35]. A non-parametric competing risk model for
manpower planning has been discussed by McClean and
Gribbin [36]. A paper by Guerry [37] deals with the
monotonicity property of t-step maintainable structures in
three-grade manpower systems. Another paper by Guerry [38]
deals with the probability of attaining structure in a partially
stochastic model. A non-parametric maximum likelihood
estimator for incomplete renewal data which was discussed by
McClean and Devine [39]. Optimal recruitment policy for
training prior to placement is discussed by Sathiyamoorthi and
Elangovan [40]. Among the papers which are directed towards
in the concept of Shock model approach the paper discussed
by Sathiyamoorthi and Elangovan [41] is an important one.
A Stochastic model for optimum training duration is
discussed by Sathiyamoorthi and Elangovan [42]. Optimum
time interval between recruitment programmes has been
discussed by Sathiyamoorthi and Elangovan [43]. On the
propensity of leaving a job using Shock model approach and
Cox regression model is discussed by Sathiyamoorthi and
Elangovan [44]. Non-parametric maximum likelihood
estimation for artificially truncated absence data has been
discussed by McClean and Devine [45]. A replacement
strategy in manpower planning has been discussed by
Elangovan and Muthaiyan [47]. Analysis of completed length
of service using Coxs Regression model under Shock model
approach has been discussed by Elangovan and Shanmugham
[46]. On the determination of optimal policy for hiring
expertise service in manpower planning has been discussed by
Sathiyamoorthi and Elangovan [49]. Estimation of incomplete
manpower data using Weibull distribution has been discussed
by Elangovan et al., [48].
Estimation of expected time to recruitment using Shock
model approach has been discussed by Vijayasankar et al.,
[50]. Application of Coxs regression model in the analysis of
wastage of manpower data have been discussed by Elangovan
et al., [52]. A Stochastic model for the estimation of expected
time to recruitment due to attrition has been discussed by
Vijayasankar et al., [51]. Analysis of flows in a manpower
system with a special reference to Tamilnadu software
industry has been discussed by Susiganeshkumar and
Elangovan [54]. Estimation of expected time to recruitment
with wastage threshold as truncated distribution have been
discussed by Vijayasankar et al., [55].
Determination of optimal manpower reserve when demand
for manpower has fluctuations have been discussed by
Arivazhagan et al., [56]. Prediction of manpower wastage in
Tamilnadu software industry using Coxs regression approach
has been discussed by Susiganeshkumar et al., [58]. A
Stochastic model for the prediction of staffing structure with
special reference to Tamilnadu software industry has been
discussed by Susiganeshkumar et al., [59]. Determination of
expected time to recruitment when the breakdown threshold
has three components have been discussed by Arivazhagan et
al., [57]. Determinations of expected time to recruitment when
packup resource of manpower exists have been discussed by
Vijayasankar et al.,[60]. Determination of Expected time to
Recruitment When the Breakdown Threshold has Five
Components has discussed by Elangovan and Ramani [62] and
Stochastic Model to Determination the optimal Manpower
Reserve at Five nodes in Series has been discussed by
Elangovan and Ramani [63]. Stochastic model to determine
the expected time to recruitment with three sources of
depletion of manpower under correlated interarrival times has
been discussed by Elangovan and Arulpavai [61].
Determination of Expected time to Recruitment with four
Sources of Depletion of manpower Attrition has been
discussed by Elangovan and Ramani [64].
III. ASSUMPTION OF THE MODEL
The organization comprises of single grade.
The threshold has its individual random variable.
The policy decisions are taken with inter arrival times
which are i.i.d random variable depending upon the
market environment, production, etc.,
The processes which give rise to policy revisions and
the threshold random variables are statistically
independent.
IV. NOTATIONS
X
i
: A continuous random variable denoting the amount of
loss of manpower caused to the system on the i
th
occasion of
policy announcement (shock) 1, 2,.k and X
i
s are iid
Y
1
: Continuous random variables denoting the threshold
follows Generalized Logistic Distribution.
Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2014 155

ISSN 2277-5056 | 2014 Bonfring
g(.) : The probability density function of X
g*(.): Laplace transform of g(.)
g : The K- fold convolution of g(.) that is probability
density function of
0
i
i
X
f (.) : Probability density function of random variable denoting
between successive policy announcement with the
corresponding cumulative distribution F (.)
F
R
(.): K-fold convolution of F (.)
S(.) : Survival function
F
R
(t): Probability of exactly K policy announcement
A. Shock Model and Cumulative Damage Process
The idea of Shock model and cumulative damage process
introduced by Esary et al., [7] is given as follows. Consider a
unit or system that undergoes shocks at random time epochs
and each shock causes random amount of damage to the
system. The damages due successive shocks at random time
intervals cumulate but the system survives. Every system has
a threshold level which is the withstanding capacity of the
system or it is level of maximum allowable damage. When
the cumulative damage crosses the threshold level then the
system breaks down. The survivor function is given by
0 k
S t [Probability that there occurs exactly k shocks
in (0, t][Probability that the device with stands k shocks]. The
survivor function of the lifetime of the device is given by
0
, 0,
!
k
t
k
k
t
S t P t
k

where k P is the probability


that the system surviving k shocks. The assumptions made in
this model are: (i) Each shock causes a random amount of
damage and (ii) Damages on successive shocks are
independent and identically distributed. The properties of the
survivor function are studied based on the properties of k P
when the device has a cumulative shock random threshold
level and maximal shock random threshold level. For a
detailed account of Shock model and cumulative damage
process, one can also refer, Esary et al., [7], Barlow and
Proschan [4].
B. Two Parameter Type I Generalized Logistic Distribution
Balakrishnan and Leung [3] defined the type I Generalized
Logistic Distribution (GLD) as one of the three generalized
forms of the standard logistic distribution. Type I GLD has
received additional attention in estimating its parameters for
practical usage; refer to Balakrishnan [2]. For >0 and >0
the two-parameter Type I GLD has the probability density
function given
1
, , 1 ,
x x
f x x (1)
And has the cumulative distribution function given by
, , 1 ,
x
F x x (2)
Where is the scale parameter and is the shape parameter. The
importance of the logistic distribution is already been left in
many areas of human endeavor.
C. Mittag-Leffler Distribution
A Statistical distribution in terms of the Mittag-Leffler
function E

(y) was defined by Pillai [14] in terms of the
distribution function or cumulative density function as
follows:
1
1
1
1 , 0 1, 0
1
k
k
y
k
y
G y E y y
k
(3)
And
y
G y =0 for y0. Differentiating on both sides
with respect to y we obtain the density function f(y) as
follows:
y
d
f y G y
dy

1
1
1
1
k
k
k
y
d
dy k

1
0
1
k
k
k
y
k

By replacing k by k+1

1
,
, 0 1, 0 y E y y

(4)
The Laplace transform of the generalized Mittag-Leffler
distribution given in equation is as follows
1
1
,
0 0
1 , 1
t
tx tx
f t f t
L f x dx x E x dxL t t

(5)
D. Methods of Estimation
In this section different methods of estimation are
discussed. To name a few, maximum likelihood estimation,
method of moment estimators, estimators based on percentiles,
least squares and weighted least squares estimations, L-
moment estimators. For a detailed discussion maximum
likelihood estimation [1], a detailed study an one can refer
methods of moment estimators [21], a detailed study on
estimators based on percentiles [1], a detailed discussion on
least square and weighted least square estimators [17] and one
can also refer on L-Moment estimator [19].
E. Estimation of Expected Time to Recruitment using Shock
Model Approach
Based on the assumption and notations are discussed in
section 2 and section 3, the estimation of expected time to
recruitment using Shock model approach is derived as follows.
If Y be the random variable which has the cumulative density
function defined as
Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2014 156

ISSN 2277-5056 | 2014 Bonfring
1
, 1 ,
x
F x x
Which same as the equation (2) given with =1
The corresponding survival function is
1 H x F x
1
1 1
x
H x
1
x
x
H x

(6)
One is interested in an item for which there is a significant
individual variation in ability to with stand shocks. There may
be no practical way to inspect an individual item to determine
its threshold y. In the case, the threshold must be a random
variable. The shock survival probability are given by
0
i k
P X y g x H x dx

1
k
g By convolution (7)
Therefore S t P T t is the survival function
which gives the probability that the cumulative antigenic
diversity will fail only after time t.
0 k
P {There are exactly k contacts in (0, t] *P (The
total cumulative antigenic diversity (0, t]}
It may be happen that successive shock become
increasingly effective in causing damage, even though they are
independent. This means that V
k
(t), the distribution function
of the k
th
damage is decreasing in k = 1,2, for each t. A
renewal process is a counting process such that the time until
the first event occurs has some distribution F, the time
between the first and second event has, independently of the
time of the first event, the same distribution F, and so on.
When an event occurs, we say that a renewal has taken place.
It is also known from renewal process that
P (exactly k policy decision in (0, t]) = F
k
(t) F
k+1
with
F
0
(t)

= 1
0
k i
k
P T t V t P X y
Data that measure the length of time until the occurrence
of an event are called lifetime, failure times or survival data.
L (T) =1-S (t)
Taking Laplace transform of L (T), we get
1
0
1
1
k
k k
k
F t F t g
1
1
1 1
k
k
k
g F t g (8)
Laplace transforms l
*(s)
is given by

1
1
1
1
g f s
l s
g f s
(9)
Using the results discussed in section 6, let the random
variable U denoting inter arrival time of Mittag-Leffler
distribution with parameter . Now
1
f s ,
substituting in the equation (9) we get,
1
1
1
g
l s
S g

0
1
/
1
1
s
d
l s
ds
g


1
1
1
E T
g

(10)
2
2
0 2 2
2
2
/
1
1
s
d
E T l s
ds
g

2
2
V T E T E T
2
2
2
2 1
1
1
1
1
V T
g
g
(11)
The inter arrival time of the threshold follows Mittag-
Leffler distribution. Using the result given in equation (5),
based on the assumption, the Laplace transforms of the
Mittag-Leffler is given by
1
1
.
1
. ~ . , 1 ~
1
g Mit g Mit .
2
1
E T (12)
Similarly

2
2
2
2
1
V T (13)
Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2014 157

ISSN 2277-5056 | 2014 Bonfring
F. Numerical Illustration
Table 1: Variation in and for Changes in when
=2 Fixed

= 0.5 = 1.0 = 1.5
E (T) V (T) E (T) V (T) E (T) V (T)
0.1 14.142 200.0 13.23 177.77 12.612 159.06
0.2 7.071 50.00 6.67 44.44 6.306 39.765
0.3 4.714 22.22 4.44 19.75 4.204 17.673
0.4 3.535 12.5 3.33 11.11 3.153 9.941
0.5 2.828 8.00 2.67 7.11 2.522 6.362
0.6 2.357 5.55 2.22 4.938 2.102 4.418
0.7 2.020 4.081 1.90 3.628 1.801 3.246
0.8 1.767 3.125 1.67 2.778 1.577 2.485
0.9 1.571 2.469 1.48 2.19 1.401 1.963
1.0 1.414 2.00 1.33 1.778 1.261 1.590


Figure 1: Variation in for Changes in when =2 Fixed

Figure 2: Variation in for Changes in when =2 Fixed
As interarrival time increases keeping = 0.5, = 1.0
and = 1.5 fixed the expected time to recruitment and its
variance decreases. The model discussed in this paper,
indicate how the real life situations which may arise in the
management of manpower planning.
a. Numerical Computation of Two Parameter Generalized
Logistic Distribution
An extensive simulation study is carried out to compare
the performance of different methods maximum likelihood
Estimation, Method of Moment Estimators, Estimators based
on percentiles, Least Squares and Weighted Least Squares
Estimations, L-Moment Estimators and unbiased estimator
together with the results discussed in section 4. The average
relative estimates and average mean square errors of =0.5,
=1.0, =1.5, =2.0, =2.5, when is known and the results
are given in Table 2 and Figure 3.
Table: 2 Average Relative Estimates and its Mean Square
Error when =1

Method
N =0.5 =1.0 =1.5 =2.0 =2.5
MLE
MME
PCE
LSE
WLSE
UBE
10
20
30
50
100
4.132
4.104
3.723
4.071
4.052
4.005
3.501
3.423
3.002
3.074
3.328
3.245
3.652
3.523
3.214
3.435
3.516
3.107
3.504
3.078
2.934
3.062
3.071
2.000
3.358
3.088
2.814
3.073
3.064
2.876

Figure 3
The two parameter Generalized logistic distribution of the
GL (, ) can be easily obtained through the transformation
1
1
ln 1 , x U
where U is a uniform
deviate on (0, 1). The software Mathematica can be used to
generate the generalized logistic random variables and for
computing the roots as well as for computing the minimization
or maximization of the related functions. For generating
Uniform deviate an (0,1), the procedure suggested by
Rubinstein [16]) has been used. Since
is the scale parameter
and all the estimators are scale invariant, we take =1 in all
cases considered. We consider various choices of the shape
parameter =0.5, =1.0, =1.5, =2.0, =2.5 and for sample
sizes n=10, 20, 30, 50 and 100. We compute the average
relative biases and average relative mean square errors over
1000 runs. This number of runs will give the accuracy in the
order
5
1000 0.01 . First we consider the estimation
of when is known. If is known, the maximum likelihood
estimations, percentiles estimations and unbiased best
estimators (UBEs) of can be obtained directly. The least
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
E
x
p
e
c
t
e
d

t
i
m
e

(
T
)
Inter arrival time c
=0.5
=1.0
=1.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
V
a
r
i
a
n
c
e

(
T
)
Inter arrival time c
=0.5
=1.0
=1.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Series1
Series2
Series3
Series4
Series5
Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2014 158

ISSN 2277-5056 | 2014 Bonfring
squares and weighted least square estimators can be obtained
minimizing with respect to only.
For simulation, the algorithm and results suggested by
Karian et al., [10], Gupta et al., [8], Mudholkar et al., [13], can
be used. It is observed from Table 1 the most of the estimators
usually over estimate , except percentiles estimation, which
under estimates in all cases considered. One can also
observe that for each estimation method, the average relative
biases and average relative mean square errors decrease, as the
sample size increases. As far as biases are concerned, the
unbiased estimators are more or less unbiased as expected
and have minimum mean square errors. The percentiles
estimations provide the best results for small sample size
(n=10) while the unbiased estimators work well otherwise.
The weighted least square estimators work better than the
least square estimators in all cases, considered. Clearly, as
sample size increases, the biases and the mean square errors
decrease for all methods. As a consequence of that, all
estimators are asymptotically unbiased and consistent of
when is known. It is observed that the average biases and
mean square errors of these estimators depend on . For all
methods, as increase, the average relative mean square
errors of


decrease. It is also observed that all methods
overestimate , where as percentiles estimation underestimates
in all cases considered.
Comparing the biases, it is observed that percentiles
estimations perform well for small sample size n=10 and for
all values of considered. For moderate or large sample sizes
20 n , percentiles estimations works well. In the sense
of mean square errors, it is observed that percentiles
estimations performed well for sample sizes and for all
choices of s considered. For moderate and large sample
sizes, maximum likelihood estimators work better than other
estimators except the percentiles estimations. The mean
square errors of the weighted least square estimators are
usually smaller than that of the least square estimators where
as the mean square errors of the method of moment
estimators are usually the maximum. Considering all the
points and taking in to the account that percentiles
estimations and method of moment estimators are easiest to
compute and found that percentiles estimation as a good
estimate of .
Comparing the performance of all the estimators, it is
observed that as far as biases are concerned, least square
estimators work the best in almost all the cases considered for
estimating both and . The performances of the weighted
least square estimators are quite close. For small sample size,
the percentiles estimation performs well when compared with
lest square estimator and weighted least square estimator for
estimating . In the sense of mean square estimators it is
clear that percentiles estimations work the best in almost all
the cases considered for estimating both parameters. The
performances of the maximum likelihood estimators are also
quite close to that of the percentiles estimations for estimating

. The mean square errors of the weighted least square


estimations are usually smaller than that of the least square
estimators whereas the mean square errors of the method of
moment estimators are getting larger in most of the cases
considered. Comparing the estimates of the two parameter
generalized logistic distribution using shock model approach
simulation and the empirical distribution sited using two
parameter generalized logistic distribution based on different
estimation methods given table 3 and table 4. For comparison
purposes, we also obtain the K-S distance based on the
maximum likelihood estimators, method of moment
estimators, percentiles estimators least square estimators,
weighted least square estimators

and least square estimators.
Their estimates, K-S distance and the corresponding p-values
are presented. In the sense of means square errors the
asymptotic mean square errors of the above estimators are
computed and presented in Table 4.For the shock model
approach discussed in section 4 using two parameter type I
generalized logistic distribution, the goodness of fit test
suggested by McClean [12] has been discussed.

Table 3: The K-S Distance between the Empirical Function
and the Fitted Two Parameter Generalized Logistic
Distribution Based on Different Estimation Methods
Estimation
Methods
K-S
distance
P-value
MLE
MME
PCE
LCE
WLSE
LME


Shock
model
approach
1.844
2.056
1.815
1.657
1.734
1.875

2.0
165.171
309.075
160.042
116.245
129.133
169.523

1.5







0.2


0.4


0.6


0.8

1.0
0.0628
0.0818
0.0536
0.0472
0.0599
0.0728

6.306
1

39.765
2

3.153
1

9.941
2


2.102
1

4.418
2

1.577
1

2.485
2


1.261
1

1.590
2

0.9276
0.7932
0.9789
0.9545
0.9678
0.8923

0.33


0.11


0.08


0.18


2.03

1- E(T)
2- V(T)
From table 3, it is observed that the two parameter
generalized
logistic distribution with parameters estimated by
least square estimators provides the best fit.
V. CONCLUSION
The conceptualizations of mathematical and stochastic
model help the process of finding the optimal solutions and
also the implementation of the same. However it is very
important to identify the appropriate probability distribution
that would portray the realities. The identification appropriate
distribution is an important step. Hence the survey method
can help the identification of such distribution. The tests for
goodness of fit of such distribution are real life data is an
important procedure. Once this is taken care of then the
models can be used in solving real life problems.

Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Vol. 4, No. 3, August 2014 159

ISSN 2277-5056 | 2014 Bonfring
It is also found that least square estimators weighted least
square estimator perform well when compared with the other
estimators. The performance of the maximum likelihood
estimators are quite close to that of percentiles estimators.
The mean square estimators and method of moment estimators
are large than the other estimators. The existing result shows
more consistent estimates comparing the other estimators
when sample size is sufficiently large. The results show that
the p value is significant and gives netter results is the case of
Shock model approach when compared with the other
estimates. The validity of the numerical results gives only the
best estimates when the real data is collected from the industry
and test for the goodness of fit can be done by validity the
model discussed in the paper.
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Dr. R. Elangovan, is working as Professor, Department
of Statistics, Annamalai University, Annamalai nagar,
Tamilnadu. He is having more than 22 years of P.G.
teaching experience. He obtained his B.Sc., M.Sc.,
Degrees in Statistics from Annamalai University in
1982-1984, and M.Phil., Ph.D., degree from the same
institution in 1988 and 2000. He obtained the B.Ed.,
and M.Ed., degrees also in Education from Annamalai
University in 1987 and 1994. He obtained the M.B.A. (H.R.M.) from the same
institution during 2013. He has an excellent academic record of guiding 42
students for M.Phil. Degrees also and he has published 53 research papers in
leading National and International journals, currently guiding 5 students for
the Ph.D. programme in statistics. Five Students are already awarded Ph.D.
degrees under his guidance. He has attended nearly 46 International and 25
National level seminars and presenting papers. He is the editor of various
reputed journals in India. He has written 3 books and written 5 lessons and
reports for the Directorate of Distance Education of Annamalai University. He
visited France, Hang Hong, Paris and USA and delivered invited talk and also
chaired the technical session in the conference.Prof. Elangovan visited United
Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah, Al Ain, Ajman,
Ras al-Khaimah and Ummal- Quwain. He worked as a Statistician in Aravind
Eye Hospital, Madurai from (1987-1988), as Assistant Technical Officer in
Christian Medical College, Vellore (1988-1989) before joining Annamalai
University (1990) as Lecturer. He has gained the reputation of being an
excellent teacher.
Miss. T. Ramani, M.Sc., M.Phil., worked as a lecture in
statistics for a period of 18 months since 2008 to 2010
at Shree Raghavendra Arts and Science College,
Keezhamoongiladi, Chidambaram. She was also
worked has 2 and half years since 2010 to 2012 at
Krishnasamy College of Science, Arts and management
for women, Cuddalore, before joining as full time Ph.D
Research scholar in statistics, Annamalai University,
2012 to 2014. She has published 3 papers in the International Journals. She
has also participated and presented in 3 National level Conferences. She has
also participated 4 International and National level seminars and workshops.
She has gained the experience and knowndge of being a good teacher and
researcher. Currently working for my Ph.D degree in Statistics as a full time
research scholar, Department of statistics under the guidance of Prof. R.
Elangovan