TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE

1. INTRODUCTION

2. REVIEWING 4G

2.1 Enterprise benefits of 4G
2.2 Beyond the current situation
2.3 Strategizing 4G world
2.4 Challenges and issues in the 4G system
2.5 Implementing 4G
2.6 Existing models of 4G

3. 4G MARKET IN INDIA

3.1 Positioning Statement
3.2 First mover in Indian market - Airtel
3.3 Capacity Gains

4. 4G REQUIREMENT AND SPECIFICATIONS

4.1 Location and mobility
4.2 Relaying

5. MARKET CONTEXT

6. USAGE BY GOVERNMENT

6.1 Organization and military usage

7. Limitation of 4G Server and technology


8. Comparing 2G /3G/4G/
8.1 installation
8.2 Rent
8.3 Technology
8.4 Location
8.5 Bandwidth
8.6 The 4G standard4G imposters
8.7 Carrier marketing
8.8 When can we use true 4G?
8.9 3G/4G Security

9. USER BEHAVIOUR, AND EXPERIANS
9.1 Market Uncertainties
9.2 Changes In Buyer Knowledge Required
9.3 Changes Occure In Buyer Behaviour

10. MARKETING MACROENVIRONMENT
10.1 Demographic Trends

11. MARKETING TASK ENVIRONMENT
11.1 Competitors
11.2 Channels
11.3 Suppliers

12. CUSTOMER
12.1 Customers Purchase Decision Process
12.2 Customers Purchase Decision Process Continued

13. MARKET RESEARCH
13.1 Secondary Market Research
13.2 Primary Research

14. MARKETING MIX COMPARISON
14.1 Total Product / Service
14.2 Product Continued
14.3 Pricing
14.4 Distribution
14.5 Advertising And Communication
14.6 Advertising / Communications Continued
14.7 Sales Force

15. 4G MILESTONES

16. 4G BUSINESS PLAN AND CASE STUDIES

11.1 Business Model

17. DEMAND ASSESSMENT
1. Methodology
2. Load Survey Results by Area
``PART -2
PROGRESS OF RELEASE YEAR 99, RELEASE YEAR 2005-5,
RELEASE 2006-6, RELEASE 2007-7 AND RELEASE 2008- 8:
EVOLVED EDGE, UMTS/EVOLVED HSPA (HSPA+) AND
LTE/EPC

1.1 PROGRESS TIMELINE

3. PLANS FOR RELEASE 2009 AND RELEASE 2010: EVOLVED
HSPA (HSPA+) AND LTE/LTE ADVANCED

4. THE GROWING DEMANDS FOR WIRELESS DATA
APPLICATIONS


4.1 WIRELESS DATA TRENDS AND FORECASTS
4.2 WIRELESS DATA REVENUE
4.3 MOBILE BROADB AND DEVICES
4.4 MOBILE BROADB AND APPLICATIONS
4.5 SMALL CELL GROWTH
4.6 SPECTRUM INITIATIVES
4.7 SUMMARY

5. STATUS AND HIGHLIGHTS OF RELEASE 8 AND
RELEASE 9: EVOLVED HSPA (HSPA+) AND LTE/EPC

5.1 VOLTE

6. STATUS OF IMT ADVANCED AND LTE ADVANCED

6.1 SPECIFYING IMT ADVANCED THE ITU-R ROLE
6 2 THE 3GPP ROLE

7. STATUS OF RELEASE 10: HSPA+ ENHANCEMENTS AND
LTE- ADVANCED.

7.1 LTE ADVANCED FEATURES AND TECHNOLOGIES

7.1.1 Support of Wider Bandwidth
7.1.2 Uplink Transmission Enhancements
7.1.3 Downlink Transmission Enhancements
7.1.4 Relaying
7.1.5 Heterogeneous Network Support
7.1.6 MBMS Enhancements
7.1.7 SON Enhancements
7.1.8 Vocoder Rate Adaptation

7.2 HSPA+ENHANCEMENTS FOR RELEASE 10

7.2.1Four Carrier HSDPA Operation
7.2.2Additional band combinations L for DB-DC-HSDPA

7.3 RELEASE INDEPENDENT FEATURES

7.4.1 Band Combinations for LTE CA

8. PLANNING FOR RELEASE AND BEYOND

8.1 TARGET TIMELINE FOR RELEASE
8.2 LTE- ADVANCED ENHANCEMENTS

8.2.1 Coordinated multiple point transmission and reception
8.2.2 Carrier aggregation

8.3 POTENTIAL AREAS OF FUTURE STANDARDIZATION

9. CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIX A: TARGET REQUIREMENTS FOR IMT ADVANCED


APPENDIX B: LTE ADVANCED AND SELF EVALUATION

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
REFERENCES















1. INTRODUCTION


Mobile broadband use continues to grow. According to industry analyst firm
Infonetics, cellular mobile broadband subscribers are forecast to grow at a 104 per
cent compound annual growth rate from 2007 to 2011. Businesses and individuals are
putting mobile broadband technologies to work and realizing the productivity and
convenience benefits of always-available broadband access.

While people still primarily use their mobile devices for voice, texting and e-mail, the
emergence of applications such as audio and video download and streaming, virtual
collaboration and Web 2.0 applications will continue to increase demand for faster
and more responsive mobile broadband. Enter fourth-generation (4G) technology.

The second generation (2G) of wireless mobile communication systems was a huge
success story because of its revolutionary technology and the services that it brought
to its users. Besides high-quality speech service, global mobility was a strong and
convincing reason for users to buy 2G terminals. The third generation (3G) has been
launched in several parts of the world, but the success story of 2G is hard to repeat.
One reason for this assertion is that the evolution from 2G towards 3G has brought
only few novel additional services, which leave the business model largely unchanged
and may not be enough to encourage the customers to change their equipment.
Following the paradigm of generational changes, it was originally expected that the
fourth generation (4G) would follow sequentially after 3G and emerge between 2010
and 2015 as an ultra-high-speed broadband wireless network. There is clearly a need
for a methodological change in the design of 4G.
In this paper we propose a new user-centric methodology that considers users as the
cornerstone in the design of 4G and identifies their functional needs and
expectations, reflecting and illustrating them in everyday life situations. This
approach consequently contributes to the identification of the real technical step-up of
4G with respect to 3G and thus to a less prophetic and more pragmatic definition of
the forthcoming technology.
BW
4G
Radios More received power
100
?

10
Super 3G ?

1
Broadcast Equicost/Equipower
HSDPA systems line

BT

100
WLAN
UMTS




10
GSM Satellite



Coverage/mobility
Wide area

Range/Coverage/Mobility - Bandwidth relationship



INTRODUCTION TO 4G WIRELESS TECHNOLOGIES
4G
This chapter highlights the meaning of the term 4G as used within this project by defining
the key technologies which form the 4G group which are the subject of this project. In
particular it includes a description of the main activities involved in defining 4G technologies
within the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) under the IMT-Advanced banner,
the work of the Third-Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) towards LTE-Advanced and the
work of IEEE in defining the standards for IEEE 802.16m, best known as WiMAX. It also
collates the targets and claims for spectral efficiency associated with those technologies
under various conditions.
There is a great buzz in the world of wireless communications. Everyone is
talking about 4G. What exactly is 4G, and how will it impact us?
4G is just the short acronym for Fourth Generation technology for mobile
communications. 4G is the next generation technology that will be used by cellular
phone companies and internet service providers to deliver superior quality video and
data apart from voice. Interestingly, the 3G (third generation) technology is not yet
operational in most countries. Many like India for example are using the 2.5 G
technologies for mobile or cell phones.
4G will be a fully IP-based integrated system of systems and network of
networks achieved after the convergence of wired and wireless networks as well as
computer, consumer electronics, communication technology, and several other
convergences that will be capable of providing 100 Megabits/s and 1 Gigabits/s,
respectively, in outdoor and indoor environments with end-to-end quality of service
and high security, offering any kind of services anytime, anywhere, at affordable cost
and one billing.

WIRELESS SYSTEM EVOLUTION
First generation: Almost all of the systems from this generation were analog systems
where voice was considered to be the main traffic. These systems could often be
listened to by third parties. Some of the standards are NMT, AMPS, Hicap, CDPD,
Mobitex and DataTac.
Second generation: All the standards belonging to this generation are commercial
centric and they are digital in form. Around 60% of the current market is dominated
by European standards. The second generation standards are GSM, iDEN, D-AMPS,
IS-95, PDC, CSD, PHS, GPRS, HSCSD, and WiDEN.
Third generation: To meet the growing demands in the number of subscribers
(increase in network capacity), rates required for high speed data transfer and
multimedia applications, 3G standards started evolving. The systems in this standard
are basically a linear enhancement of 2G systems.
They are based on two parallel backbone infrastructures, one consisting of circuit
switched nodes, and one of packet oriented nodes. The ITU defines a specific set of
air interface technologies as third generation, as part of the IMT-2000 initiative.
Currently, transition is happening from 2G to 3G systems. As a part of this transition,
lots of technologies are being standardized. From 2G to 3G: 2.75G - EDGE and
EGPRS, 3G - CDMA 2000,W-CDMA or UMTS (3GSM), FOMA, 1xEV-DO/IS-856,
TD-SCDMA, GAN/UMA. Similarly from 3G to 4G: 3.5G - HSDPA, HSUPA,
Super3G - HSOPA/LTE.
Fourth generation: According to the 4G working groups, the infrastructure and the
terminals of 4G will have almost all the standards from 2G to 4G implemented. Even
though the legacy systems are in place to be adopted in 4G for the existing legacy
users, going forward the infrastructure will however only be packet based, all-IP.
Also, some proposals suggest having an open platform where the new innovations and
evolutions can fit. The technologies which are being called as 4G though not
officially are as follows: WiMax, WiBro, 3GPP Long Term Evolution and 3GPP2 U
ltra Mobile Broadband.











TECHNICAL DEFINITION OF 4G
Table 1. Short History of Mobile Telephone Technologies


Technology 1G 2G 2.5G 3G 4G
Design Began 1970 1980 1985 1990 2000
Implementation 1984 1991 1999 2002 2010
Service Analog
voice,
synchronous
Digital
voice,
Short
Higher
capacity,
Packetized
Higher
capacity,
Broadband
Higher
Capacity,
completely
Data to 9.6
Kbps
messages data data Up to 2
Mbps
IP Oriented,
Multimedia,
data to
100Mbps
Standards AMPS,
TACS,
NMT etc.
TDMA,
CDMA,
GSM,
PDC
GPRS,
EDGE,
1xRTT
WCDMA,
CDMA2000
Single
standard
Data
Bandwidth
1.9 kbps 14.4
kbps
384 kbps 2 Mbps 200 Mbps
Multiplexing FDMA TDMA,
CDMA
TDMA,
CDMA
CDMA CDMA
Core Network PSTN PSTN PSTN,
Packet
network
Packet
Network
Internet





















The approaching 4G (fourth generation) mobile communication systems are
projected to solve still-remaining problems of 3G (third generation) systems and to
provide a wide variety of new services, from high-quality voice to high-definition
video to high-data-rate wireless channels.
The term 4G is used broadly to include several types of broadband wireless
access communication systems, not only cellular telephone systems. One of the terms
used to describe 4G is MAGICMobile multimedia, anytime anywhere, Global
mobility support, integrated wireless solution, and customized personal service. As a
promise for the future, 4G systems, that is, cellular broadband wireless access systems
have been attracting much interest in the mobile communication arena. The 4G
systems not only will support the next generation of mobile service, but also will
support the fixed wireless networks. This paper presents an overall vision of the 4G
features, framework, and integration of mobile communication. The features of 4G
systems might be summarized with one word integration. The 4G systems are about
seamlessly integrating terminals, networks, and applications to satisfy increasing user
demands. The continuous expansion of mobile communication and wireless networks
shows evidence of exceptional growth in the areas of mobile subscriber, wireless
network access, mobile services, and applications.

LEGEND:

1xRTT = 2.5G CDMA data service up to 384 kbps GSM = global system for
mobile
AMPS = advanced mobile phone service NMT = Nordic mobile
telephone
CDMA = code division multiple access PDC = personal digital cellular
EDGE = enhanced data for global evolution PSTN = public switched
telephone
FDMA = frequency division multiple access TACS = total access
communications
GPRS = general packet radio system TDMA = time division multiple
access
WCDMA = wideband CDMA


4G MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS:
This new generation of wireless is intended to complement and replace the 3G
systems, perhaps in 5 to 10 years. Accessing information anywhere, anytime, with a
seamless connection to a wide range of information and services, and receiving a
large volume of information, data, pictures, video, and so on, are the keys of the 4G
infrastructures. The future 4G infrastructures will consist of a set of various networks
using IP (Internet protocol) as a common protocol so that users are in control because
they will be able to choose every application and environment. Based on the
developing trends of mobile communication, 4G will have broader bandwidth, higher
data rate, and smoother and quicker handoff and will focus on ensuring seamless
service across a multitude of wireless systems and networks. The key concept is
integrating the 4G capabilities with all of the existing mobile technologies through
advanced technologies.

Key Features of 4G
User Friendliness and User Personalization
User friendliness exemplifies and minimizes the interaction between applications and
users thanks to a well-designed transparency that allows the users and the terminals to
naturally interact (e.g., the integration of new speech interfaces is a great step for
achieving this goal). For instance, in Scenario A, users can get traveling information
in the most user-friendly way: text, audio, or video format. User personalization refers
to the way users can configure the operational mode of their device and reselect the
content of the services chosen according to their preferences. Since every new
technology is designed keeping in mind the principal aim to have a strongly impact on
peoples lifestyles, the new concepts introduced by 4G are based on the assumption
that each user wants to be considered as a distinct. Therefore, in order to embrace a
large spectrum of customers, user personalization must be provided with high
granularity, so that the huge amount of information is filtered according to the users
choices.
The first step in analyzing cellular wireless security is to identify the security
objectives. These are the goals that the security policy and corresponding
technology should achieve. To ensure that information generated by or relating to a
user is adequately protected against misuse or misappropriation. Ensure that the
security features are compatible with world-wide availability. Also ensure that the
security features are adequately standardized to ensure world-wide interoperability
and roaming between different providers. To ensurethat the level of protection
afforded to users and providers of services is considered to be better than that
provided in contemporary fixed and mobile networks. The implementation of security
features and mechanisms can be extended and enhanced as required by new
threats and services. In 4g networks, security measures must be established
such that they enable data transmission to be as safe and secure as possible. The
nature of the 4 g network, gives an increased likelihood of security attacks due
to vast facilities. Hence, multiple levels of security, including authentication, will
be necessary to protect the data that gets transmitted across the network. Wireless
systems face a number of security challenges, one of which comes from interference.
As more wireless devices begin to use the same section of electromagnetic
spectrum, the possibility of interference increases. This can result in a loss of signal
for users. Moreover, an abuser can intentionally mount a denial-of-service attack
(lowering availability) by jamming the frequencies used. Sos of 4g of the features of
4g
This is illustrated in scenario B, where users can receive targeted pop-up
advertisements. The combination between user personalization and user friendliness
provides users with easy management of the overall features of their devices and
maximum exploitation of all the possible applications, thus conferring the right value
to their expense. Receive targeted pop-up advertisements. The combination between
user personalization and user friendliness provides users with easy management of the
overall features of their devices and maximum exploitation of all the possible
applications, thus conferring the right value to their expense
4G has not yet reached in industry and standard. Illustration of a 4G service
architecture from Agora Co. Always-Best-Connected service on heterogeneous
network is hoped to achieve. In order to provide Always-Best-Connected service in
the future, a universal consensus on features of 4G is achieved. In the understanding,
main important characteristics and features are [Fu04][Hui03] [Zheng05a]:

All-IP Based network architecture
Higher bandwidth (than 3G)
Heterogeneous Network (3G/UMTS, Wireless LAN, DVB-T, etc.)
QoS, Security, .
Full integration of hot spot and cellular
Support for multimedia applications
4G standard is defining in the countries such as Japan, China, Korea, Europe.
Main leading institute of standard defining consists of IMT-Advanced, 3GPP ,
3GPP2. For providing 4G service, new technologies and architectures are still on
developing at different programs such as NTT DoCoMo, Nokia, Motorola, etc.
High usability and global roaming:
The end user terminals should be compatible with any technology, at anytime,
anywhere in the world. The basic idea is that the user should be able to take his
mobile to any place, for example, from a place that uses CDMA to another place
that employs GSM. Multimedia support: The user should be able to receive high
data rate multimedia services. This demands higher bandwidth and higher data rate.
Personalization: This means that any type of person should be able to access the
service. The service providers should be able to provide customized services to
different type of users.
4G Issues and Advantages:
Access
Handoff
Location co-ordination
Resource co-ordination to add new user
Support for quality of Service.
Wireless Securities & Authentication.
Network failure & backup.
Pricing and billing.
4G



Heterogeneous Network







Heterogeneous terminals









Heterogeneous Network







4G




Six Grand Challenges" in Wireless Systems
six research challenges have to be adequately met. These challenges are based on the work in
I. Scalability and affordability - creating a wireless communication in-frastructure for
affordable, mass-market services

II. Seamlessness and transparency - providing services independently of system
technology

III. Mastering complexity of interaction - providing high quality services on the edge of
technology and artefacts that are easy to use for everyone

IV. Zero-configuration and reliability through massive redundancy and network
robustness - lowering entry thresholds for new actors in the wire-less system market
by low cost, simple-to-deploy, and low-maintenance systems and networking
components

V. Regulative environment - lowering regulatory entry barriers for new actors to
stimulate the innovation process

VI. Policies and business models - economic feasibility of new technolo-gies and
architectures
Six Grand Challenges" in Wireless Systems
To make a scenario as outlined above possible we believe that the following six research
challenges have to be adequately met. These challenges are based on the work in :

I. Scalability and affordability - Creating a wireless communication infrastructure
for affordable, mass-market services
As the cost of providing advanced wireless devices continues to decrease, designing cost
effective infrastructure solutions capable of providing affordable wireless broadband access
(almost) everywhere is one of the key success factors for future wireless systems. This
research challenge includes devising novel radio technologies, new system architectural
concepts, and new and cost-efficient ways to provide attractive services to end-users.
II. Seamlessness and Transparency - Providing services independently
of system technology
One of the success factors of IP networks is the end-to-end principle, which separates
services and applications from bit transport. The same service can 8 RADIO DESIGN IN
NANOMETER TECHNOLOGIES be provided on a variety of devices (using higher level
protocols) without any change in the infrastructure. A key challenge is to preserve such
architecture in order to enable easy and dynamic composition of disparate networks amid an
ever-increasing heterogeneity of technologies and infrastructures. An additional difficulty is
to provide access and services across networks operated by different business actors from
various sectors, such as telecommunications, automotive, transportation, medical, industrial
control systems etc.

4G


III. Mastering complexity of interaction - Providing high quality services
on the edge of technology and artefacts that are easy to use for everyone
A great challenge is how to provide an easy to use, natural, stable, and convenient interface to
the user in each situation, in spite of the great complexity of the underlying system. This
involves personalized human interfaces, understanding a complex interplay of behaviors, as
well as adaptivity and context Future wireless devices and infrastructure components have to
be deployed and maintained by owners or users without specific skills and special training.
This means that the devices need to be adaptive and self-configuring, sensing their physical
and logical environment. The key challenge is to exploit massive redundancy and adaptivity
to build secure, robust and highly reliable networks and systems from large number of
consumer grade devices.sensitivity of services and applications.
IV. Zero-configuration and reliability through massive redundancy and network
robustness - Lowering entry thresholds for new actors in the wireless system market by
low cost, simple-to-deploy, and low-maintenance systems and networking components

V. Regulative environment - Lowering regulatory entry barriers for new
actors to stimulate the innovation process
The continuous process of international allocation of frequency bands has normally a delivery
time of more than ten years. Poor utilization of the frequency spectrum as well as high entry
barriers for new products developed by e.g. SMEs may have a detrimental effect on the
innovation system. Research must include exploration of new radio technologies and
regulatory regimes that allow for a more dynamic frequency sharing. A key research
challenge is non-cooperative inter-networking and radio resource management.
VI. Policies and Business models - Economic feasibility of new technologies
and architectures
To ensure commercial viability we must identify the business roles and interfaces as well as
deployment concepts. New business scenarios have to be developed. These must allow
different size and types of players to compete and cooperate, thus enabling new business
models based on established trust relationships. The choice of technologies and system
architectures heavily depends on these business and policy models
Challenges in Radio Design - Flexible or Software Defined Radios
What are the consequence of the scenario with respect the work on radio design which is the
key topic of this book? We can identify two key properties of terminals operating in the
scenario described above:
Multi-mode Capability
Future terminals need to be capable of switching between several air-interfaces literally on
the fly. This can be done either by integrating separate hardware for each access mode in the
terminal or by using programmable hardware, that potentially could reuse the same hardware
and have the various access modes defined in software (Software Defined Radios). The latter
would have the interesting property that the terminals could be reconfigured during operation
(after they left the factory). It is however questionable, if this property is really useful since
the expected life cycle time in terminals is short compared to the deployment rate of new
infrastructure (and thus the appearance of new air-interface standards). Terminals are more
likely to be tailored to user needs and specific application and than disposed of, rather than
recommissioned for some other purpose. Agood example is the laptop PC: the vast majority
of users use pre-installed applications and never install new software on their own.
Reprogramming is limited to maintenance and updates of existing software, which
very rarely goes to the hardware level. A more reasonable approach for SDR use is therefore
to use Firmware Defined Radios" were programming radios is more a matter of efficient
production of terminals rather than a tool for onthe- fly" flexibility. Furthermore true
4G


flexibility (future proofness") requires significant performance margins for which we pay in
power consumption.
Spectrum Agility
The Multimode terminals will need to operate over large frequency ranges in order to
facilitate a more dynamic spectrum management. The focus is here on wide frequency ranges
rather then reconfigurability and programmability. In this respect the radios do not need to be
software defined nor in it self cognitive". The latter term is currently frequently used to
describe a radio a frequency agile radio system in combination with adaptive scheme for
frequency management. Also a cognitive" radio system does not need to be software
defined.
Conclusions
In this chapter we have briefly outlined some important trends in wireless systems and how
these are driven by strong economic factors. The proposed heterogeneous network scenario
with many co-existing standards, each tailored to its specific niche, is a direct consequence of
these factors. We have 10 RADIO DESIGN IN NANOMETER TECHNOLOGIES
demonstrated that in future systems more functionality and flexibility will be required in the
terminals, since large scale wireless infrastructures inherently cannot adapt quickly to new
demands and services. Finally at the physical level, we identified two key requirements on
future radios - multimode capabilities and spectrum agilities.

4G Security Investigation Results
This section describes the current research results of 4G. Due to the standards of 4G are
on defining, we investigate the current research results from papers. By the survey, some the
features and issues of 4G can be illustrated, and are helpful to our future studies.

Security Issues on 4G
Basically, 4G/B3G hope to provide a communication environment with seamless
connection service consists of integrating heterogeneous network, All-IP, multimedia
applications, and so on. Toward 4G and beyond 3G, there exist many security issues to be
resolved [Hui03][Fu04][Celentano06][ODrama04][Dell'Uomo02] [McEvoy05] [Zheng05]
[Prasad05]. As follows, we list some important security issues on 4G/B3G. Some of these
issues have been investigating and getting some results as an important reference.

QoS and Security [Fu04][ODrama04] [Dell'Uomo02] [Hui03] -.
Seamless integrated Mobility, QoS and Security

-. Delay across different networks for QoS -.
Privacy

AAA for 4G [McEvoy05][Zheng05] [Dell'Uomo02] -.
Heterogeneous Network

Mobile IPv6 with inherent problems of IP [Celentano06]
[Dell'Uomo02]
Security and Handover [Celentano06] [Prasad05] [Dell'Uomo02]



4G




The Research Results of 4G Security
As 4G has not yet reached in industry and standard, many researches on security issues
on 4G as described in section 3.1 have been doing progressively. Several research results
have proposed from prior papers. In this section, we introduce several results about these
security issues, specially issues resulted from heterogeneous network.
Authentication protocol of PKBP
When the ME roams to the area belong HA5 outside from HA, An PKBP authentication
communications are performed by upper layer CA. The PKBP scheme achieved :

(a). Authentication on heterogeneous networks (b),
Against the man-in-the-middle attack
(c ).Mutual authentication
(d). Anonymity and Non-repudiation
(e). Security of key agreement
The Trusted Computing-Based Security Architecture linked up PKBP scheme is
applicable for 4G. It is convenient to globe mobility and flexible scalability. It will be a
feasible solution for 4G with heterogeneous network.

Mobilizing Data for Profit
Deep packet inspection is the silver bullet for increasing average revenueper mobile user.According
to a report recently published by Gartner, smartphone sales in 2011 were up 58 per cent from 2010
With iPad and tablet sales predicted for similar growth,the result is a seemingly insatiable demand
for data-centricapplications lead by video that is putting incredible stress on mobile networks. The
more powerful the device, the more data is downloaded. While accessing data using smartphones
easily outnumbers data access using laptops (via dongles), the laptops consume significantly more
data by volume than smaller mobile devices. There has been an explosion of mobile data traffic and
the stress on the mobile network will continue to grow unless operators step in. The initial growth of
mobile broadband data drove service providers to focus on traffic and congestion management.
Policy Servers are the key means to apply more rational policies when networks became congested,
usually by dividing customers into tiers with different data volume limits, and devising policies for
what happens when limits were breached. This approach has become widely known as fair use
management and applications such as bill shock are being added to ensure users understand what
and how much they were being charged for - but it is simply not enough to just use fair use
management and the bill shock application. The end user and the network both need more concrete
measures in place to protect against an over congestion of the networks and to ensure that end
users are not paying extortionate data rates. While bandwidth management and control of the pipe
are absolutely necessary, building a bigger, faster dumb pipealone wont keep the Network
Service Providers (NSPs) in business. The fact is, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for data traffic is
not increasing at the same rate as the demand for service - this cannot remain the same for very
much longer. NSPs must find ways to add services, enhance Quality of Experience (QoE), and provide
flexible, dynamic, up-sell options to monetize the data pipe. Deep Packet Inspection(DPI) technology
4G


is the key to make this change happen. Value Added Service (VAS) applications are being developed
that will use DPI technology to improve the user experience. Operators will be able to move away
from the all you can eatdata plans towards more flexible services and sophisticated pricing
plans, which will benefit the operator and the user.


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wireless development industry, our Principals have been quoted in the major media, namely The
Times of India, Business Line and Dainik Jagran, The Journal News, The Star Ledger and other local
publications. We've helped create municipal wireless ordinances that other municipalities have
adopted or modeled their ordinances upon. We have represented and represent towns and cities for
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wireless development and deployed and developed entire wireless infrastructure networks and build
programs for various cellular carriers. 4G Server & Technology has also intervened on behalf of
countless cell site landlords preventing them from being taken advantage of by unscrupulous and
shameless "lease optimization" and "lease re-negotiation" wireless consulting firms. We have a
100% success rate in dealing with these companies. 4G Server & Technology Principals have served
as wireless industry expert witnesses in numerous lawsuits involving cell tower site selection,
valuation and assessment. We have conducted hundreds of 4G Server & Technology Limited
wireless feasibility audits often assessing the work of another cellular tower company or as required
by our client.In one particular case our expert testimony resulted in a victorious outcome for a
Fortune 100 client who successfully defended a multimillion lawsuit from a former wireless services
vendor.
Rent
Are you currently negotiating cell tower lease rates with a wireless carrier? What are the average
cell tower lease rates in your state? Its such a broad question since there are hundreds of
metropolitan areas across the India and no two regions are alike and rental rates will vary from
county to county and by wireless carrier. Rooftop antenna leases and ground leases for monopoles
or towers are generally the same. However, where you may only be able to get a single rooftop
carrier in many instances, on a cell tower you may get up to four co-locating mobile phone
companies. Cell tower lease rates are heavily influenced by supply and demand. Cellular carriers
generally lose money on the more rural cell towers that dont get a lot of traffic. Even their cell
towers located in densely populated metropolitan areas lose money for the first several years in mot
cases. To illustrate how cell site lease rates can vary in the same metropolitan area, we will show a
sampling of cell site lease rates by the same major wireless carrier on four separate cellular antenna
sites leased in 2012:
780,000 yearly / 65,000 monthly
540,000 yearly / 45,000 monthly
360,000 yearly / 30,000 monthly
180,000 yearly / 15,000 monthly
Each of these four cell tower sites are located within a 45 minute drive of each other. The cellular
tower lease rates can be attributed simply to supply and demand. The most expensive site is in the
toughest location from a zoning perspective and the cell site where the rental price is the lowest is in
a more rural setting on the outskirts of the metropolitan area Yearly Increases Matter.However, it is
important to note that in each of these three real examples, we were able to negotiate 5% yearly
increases for our clients and not 4% yearly increases or 15% every three years. The terms that you
agree to are just as important as the rental rate you negotiate.For example, lets compare the
difference in cellular site lease rates and revenue of a carrier lease agreed to at a rate of 30,000 per
month at 5% yearly increases vs. a rate of 30,000 at 5% yearly increases.
30,000 per month with 5% yearly rental increases = 360,000 in antenna rental income at the end of
the 10-year term.
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30,000/ year @ 5% yearly = 540,000 in rental income at end of the 21-year term, a difference of
180,000.
A wireless carrier will pay a real estate site acquisition installer anywhere from a few hundred to a
few thousand rupees extra in bonus money for getting a lease executed at 1% or 2% yearly increases
and for a lower monthly rental amount. Some wireless carriers also hire lease re-negotiation
contractors to attempt to re-engineer the terms of your lease a few years after you have a tower
built on your property. Even a small reduction in monthly rental or change in terms can add up
significantly for the carriers and take a lot of money out of your pocket.
Demand for 4G Mobile Services

Although 3G networks have been deployed for some eight years, demand for mobile
broadband services is still at a relatively early stage. Demand accelerated significantly only
in 2007, following the introduction of low-priced internet connectivity based on 3G dongles.
Smartphones have stimulated further demand, notably starting with the advent of the
iPhone 3G in June 2008. This resulted in a complete change of the profile of demand in
terms of volume per user, mobility and the principal locations in which services are used.
Given this early market stage, forecasting 4G demand over the timescales of relevance to this
project is highly unlikely to be successful. Instead, we examine the main attributes of mobile
broadband demand which are significant when considering the network capacity required
to serve it. In particular, the attributes examined are:
the devices which generate the demand;
the services and applications which users access via their devices;
the data volumes and data rates which users generate and require access to in order
to support the relevant applications;
the locations and mobility associated with the demand;
the service quality which users require in order to support the services they demand.

These factors are examined via (recent) historical data and via forecasts from various sources.
Since such forecasts typically extend for only five years, in lieu of an overall forecast we
highlight the factors which may influence the demand which 4G networks will have to serve.
We focus our attention on Global.

Devices
The type of mobile broadband device

employed plays a strong role in determining the form of
demand placed on the mobile network. Devices have proliferated over the last few years,
and the device type in turn impacts strongly on the applications which can be run, the
volume of data generated and the nature of the quality of experience which is required to
satisfy the user. shows how the device type impacts on the nature of the demand which
various device classes place on the network. It is clear that MBB demand is strongly
variegated amongst devices.
Cisco forecaststhat 91% of all mobile data traffic will be from smartphones and portable
computers by 2014, due to the higher usage profile of laptops/netbooks and the suitability of
smartphones for high- quality video. Thus smartphone take-up is an important predictor of
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mobile data growththat the proportion is expected to stabilise in the next five years and that
UK is some way from being the leading market, with 32% in 2014 compared with, say, 67% in
Italy
.
Smartphones create as much traffic as 10 basic feature phones ( 30 times for
iPhones), while a laptop can generate as much as 1300 times such a feature phone The
increase in interest in tablet devices with larger form factors such as the Apple iPad seems set
to continue this trend


Growth of mobile phone subscribers in India
The aim of this paper is to forecast the growth of mobile phone subscribers in India.
Based on the data of mobile phone subscribers from the year 1996-97 to 2007-08,
a short term forecast is made up to the year 2015-16. Under assumed saturation
level, the logistic and Gompertz distribution function are used for forecasting the
growth of mobile phone subscribers in India. It is observed that, the coefficient of
determination is high and mean square error is low in case of logistic
distribution. This distribution forecasts the growth of mobile phone subscriber to 98
per 100 people in India by the year 2015-16. This study will be useful for
planners, policy makers and researchers in the area of the telecommunications
sector for realistic view of the subject and for planning appropriate strategy
accordingly.
In case of many suppliers reaching the same wholesale market, it would make the
farmers and fishermen to sell their produce at throw-away prices; sometimes even
below their cost. However, in another nearby wholesale market, which would only be a
couple of hundred kilometers away, there could a short supply and the prices could be
soaring. With the advent of mobile phones, and its cheap availability;

Year Total Population* Subscribers Subscriber#

1996-97 949878000 339031 0.04
1997-98 965607000 882316 0.09
1998-99 981324000 1199578 0.12
1999-00 996944000 1884311 0.19
2000-01 1028610000 3577095 0.35
2001-02 1045547000 6431520 0.62
2002-03 1062388000 12687637 1.19
2003-04 1079117000 33311561 3.09
2004-05 1095722000 56888928 5.19
2005-06 1112186000 101809676 9.15
2006-07 1128521000 165093655 14.63

2007-08 1144734000 261081713 22.81
Source: Telecom Regulatory Authority of India
* Estimated by Registrar General of India based on 1991 and 2001 census.
# Mobile phone subscriber per 100 persons

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Mobile market in India

In 1995, the first mobile telephone service started operating in metro cities of India, after the
telecom sector was opened up by the Government for private investment, as a part of Liberalization-
Privatization-Globalization policy. A year later, the services spread towards rest of the geographical
areas of India. During the initial five to six years, the average growth of mobile phone subscribers
was very tardy; probably due to the high price of mobile phone equipment and air time charges of
the service providers. After the New Telecom Policy in 1999, the mobile phone industry introduced
several consumer friendly initiatives. Since then the mobile subscriber additions started picking up
and crossed the fixed-line connections in September 2004. Till January 2009, India had 267.54
million mobile phone subscribers (Cellular Operator Association of India, 2007). In India, the mobile
phone service operators use the GSM (global system for mobile communications) and CDMA (code-
division multiple access) technologies. About 75 per cent of the mobile phone users under GSM
technology with 900 MHz band but, recently, the providers operate in the 1800 MHz band, as well
(TRAI Annual Report, 2006-07). At present, the dominant players in India are Airtel, Reliance
Infocomm, Vodafone, Idea cellular, AirCell, Tata Telecom and BSNL (Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited) /
MTNL (Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Limited). There are also many smaller players, operating in only
a few states.
The growth of mobile phone subscribers in India has increased tremendously over the last few years
(Table 1). From year 1996-97 to 2007-08, the number of mobile phone subscribers increased from
0.34 million to 26.11


shows the graph of mobile phone subscribers per 100 persons with respect to the year from 1996-97
to 2007-08. It is observed that the actual growth of the curve is initially slow up to 2005-06 and then
it increases rapidly. Therefore, these data seem to fit well in S shaped curve of Gompertz and the
logistic model for forecasting the mobile phone subscribers. Finally, using this trend the forecasting
model will be developed for India.

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India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis and Forecasts, 2010-2015