Demand Pattern

Demand

Time Period Demand

1
84
2
81
3
89
4
90
5
99
6
106
7
127
8
117
9
127
10
103
11
96
12
96
13
86
14
101
15
109
16

140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
1

Time Period

10

Demand Pattern

Time Period

10

11

12

13

14

15

Last Period Forecast

84
81
89
90
99
106
127
117
127
103
96
96
86
101
109

Last P
140
Quantity

Time Period Demand

1
84
2
81
3
89
4
90
5
99
6
106
7
127
8
117
9
127
10
103
11
96
12
96
13
86
14
101
15
109
16

120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Time Period
Comment:This method is the navie method of forecast with maximum errors
its a short term forecast(not feasable)

Last Period Forecast

Demand
Last Period Forecast

Time Period

Time
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Demand
84
81
89
90
99
106
127
117
127
103
96
96
86
101
109

Last
Period
Forecast
84
81
89
90
99
106
127
117
127
103
96
96
86
101
109

Column B - Column C

Column D
running average

Forecast
Error

Mean
Forecast
Error (MFE)

-3
8
1
9
7
21
-10
10
-24
-7
0
-10
15
8

-3
2.5
2.0
3.8
4.4
7.2
4.7
5.4
2.1
1.2
1.1
0.2
1.3
1.8

MFE
1.8

The mean forecast error c

Make Col D +ve

Column F /Column B

Column G running
average

Mean Absolute
Absolute
Absolute Percent Percent Error
Forecast Error
Error
(MAPE)
3
8
1
9
7
21
10
10
24
7
0
10
15
8

3.70%
8.99%
1.11%
9.09%
6.60%
16.54%
8.55%
7.87%
23.30%
7.29%
0.00%
11.63%
14.85%
7.34%

MAD
9.5

MAPE
9.06%

3.70%
6.35%
4.60%
5.72%
5.90%
7.67%
7.80%
7.81%
9.53%
9.30%
8.46%
8.72%
9.19%
9.06%

an forecast error can be 0 ,it doesnt mean your forecast is correct,u havent met the dem

Col F running
average

Col I / Col K

Cumulative
Forecast Error

Cumulative
Absolute
Forecast Error

MAD

Tracking
Signal

-3
5
6
15
22
43
33
43
19
12
12
2
17
25

3
11
12
21
28
49
59
69
93
100
100
110
125
133

3.0
5.5
4.0
5.3
5.6
8.2
8.4
8.6
10.3
10.0
9.1
9.2
9.6
9.5

-1.00
0.91
1.50
2.86
3.93
5.27
3.92
4.99
1.84
1.20
1.32
0.22
1.77
2.63

Col D running total

Col F running total

t is correct,u havent met the demand actually

Time Period Demand

1
84
2
81
3
89
4
90
5
99
6
106
7
127
8
117
9
127
10
103
11
96
12
96
13
86
14
101
15
109
16

Quantity (units)

AVERAGE
MINIMUM
MAXIMUM

Two Period
Moving Average
Forecast

Three Period
Moving Average
Forecast

82.5
85.0
89.5
94.5
102.5
116.5
122.0
122.0
115.0
99.5
96.0
91.0
93.5
105.0

84.7
86.7
92.7
98.3
110.7
116.7
123.7
115.7
108.7
98.3
92.7
94.3
98.7

101.0
82.5
122.0

101.7
84.7
123.7

100.7
81.0
127.0

Moving Average Forecasts

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1

10

11

12

Demand/Forecast

Time Period

Moving Average
140.0

13

14

15

16

Demand/Forecast

Moving Average
140.0
120.0
100.0

Dem

80.0

Two
Fore

60.0

Thre
Fore

40.0
20.0
0.0

Four
Fore

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Time Period

Four Period
Moving Average
Forecast

86.0
89.8
96.0
105.5
112.3
119.3
118.5
110.8
105.5
95.3
94.8
98.0
102.6
86.0
119.3

ng Average Forecasts

Demand
Moving average
(Demand)
Moving average
(Demand)

10

11

12

ng Average

13

14

15

16

ng Average

Demand
Two Period Moving Average
Forecast
Three Period Moving Average
Forecast
Four Period Moving Average
Forecast

11 12 13 14 15 16

Demand/Forecast

Time Period Demand

1
84
2
81
3
89
4
90
5
99
6
106
7
127
8
117
9
127
10
103
11
96
12
96
13
86
14
101
15
109
16

Three-period weighted
moving average forecast
Weights:
t-3 is 0.2
t-2 is 0.3
t-1 is 0.5

85.6
87.9
94.3
100.7
115.1
117.8
124
113
104.3
97.4
91
95.5
102

3-Period Weighted Average

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1

8
Periods

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

ted Average

12

Demand
Three-period weighted moving
average forecast

13

14

15

16

Demand/Forecast

Exponential Smoothing
Time Period Demand Forecast with alpha = 0.2
1
24
2
26
3
22
25.0
4
25
24.4
5
19
24.5
6
31
23.4
7
26
24.9
8
18
25.1
9
29
23.7
10
24
24.8
11
30
24.6
12
23
25.7
13
25.2

Exponential Smoothing
Forecast with alpha = 0.8

25.0
22.6
24.5
20.1
28.8
26.6
19.7
27.1
24.6
28.9
24.2

Exponential Smoothing
35.0
30.0
25.0

Demand

20.0

Exponen
alpha =

15.0
10.0

Exponen
alpha =

5.0
0.0
1

Time Period

10

11

12

13

#N/A
24
24.4
23.92
24.136
23.1088
24.68704
24.94963
23.55971
24.64776
24.51821
25.61457

#N/A
24
24.4
23.92
24.136
23.1088
24.68704
24.94963
23.55971
24.64776
24.51821
25.61457

For exponential smoothing(NA) go to data analysis and select exponential smoothing

Select the demand coloumn
the value of alfa is given in damping factor
if alfa is .2 then damping factor is 0.8
out put range is the couloun where you want forecast

othing

Demand

Exponential Smoothing Forecast with

alpha = 0.2

Exponential Smoothing Forecast with

alpha = 0.8

12

13

onential smoothing

0.2

Exponential
Smoothing
Period Demand
Forecast
1
10
2
11
10.00
3
9
10.20
4
11
9.96
5
10
10.17
6
8
10.13
7
12
9.71
8
9
10.17
9
10
9.93
10
11
9.95
11
20
10.16
12
11
12.13
13
9
11.90
14
11
11.32
15
10
11.26
16
9
11.01
17
11
10.60
18
4
10.68
19
10
9.35
20
11
9.48
Alpha

Exponential S
25

Value

Alpha

20

15

10

0
1

10

Data Point

0.8

Exponential
Smoothing
Period Demand
Forecast
1
10
2
11
10.0
3
9
10.8
4
11
9.4
5
10
10.7
6
8
10.1
7
12
8.4
8
9
11.3
9
10
9.5
10
11
9.9
11
20
10.8
12
11
18.2
13
9
12.4

Exponential Smo
25

20

15

10

15

10

14
15
16
17
18
19
20

11
10
9
11
4
10
11

9.7
10.7
10.1
9.2
10.6
5.3
9.1

0
1

10 11 12 13 1

Exponential Smoothing (Alpha = 0.2)

spike in demand

Actual

10

Data Point

11

12 13

14

15

16

17

18 19

Forecast

20

dip in demand

Exponential Smoothing (Alpha = 0.8)

Demand
Exponential Smoothing Forecast

Exponential Smoothing Forecast

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

0.2

Exponential
Smoothing
Period Demand
Forecast
1
10
#N/A
2
11
10
3
9
10.2
4
11
9.96
5
10
10.168
6
8
10.1344
7
12
9.70752
8
9
10.166016
9
10
9.9328128
10
11
9.94625024
11
20
10.157000192
12
21
12.1256001536
13
19
13.9004801229
14
22
14.9203840983
15
18
16.3363072786
16
20
16.6690458229
17
21
17.3352366583
18
19
18.0681893267
19
20
18.2545514613
20
21
18.6036411691

Exponential Smo
25
Value

Alpha

20
15
10
5
0
1

10 11 12

Data Point

Exponential Smoothing (Alpha = 0.2)

sustained increase in demand

Actual

Forecast

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Data Point

low alpha means slow reaction time

0.8

Exponential
Smoothing
Period Demand
Forecast
1
10
#N/A
2
11
10.00
3
9
10.80
4
11
9.36
5
10
10.67
6
8
10.13
7
12
8.43
8
9
11.29
9
10
9.46
10
11
9.89
11
20
10.78
12
21
18.16
13
19
20.43
14
22
19.29
15
18
21.46
16
20
18.69
17
21
19.74
18
19
20.75
19
20
19.35
20
21
19.87

Exponential Smo
25
Value

Alpha

20
15
10
5
0
1

Period

10 11 12

Exponential Smoothing (Alpha = 0.8)

same trend as previous sheet

Actual

higher alpha sees faster reaction to increase in trend

Period

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Forecast

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Actual Demand
12
17
20
19
24
21
31
28
36

Actual Demand

40
35

f(x) = 2.55x + 10.3611111111

30
25
Actual Demand

20

Linear (Actual
Demand)

15
10
5
0

6
Month

10

ual Demand

ear (Actual
mand)