Copenhagen, Hopenhagen or Hopelesshagen?

Copenhagen is right now the focal point of the “bipolar” world. The Good
Earth of Pearl S. Buck still has two poles with snowcaps though in the
process of melting due to heat between the haves and have-nots. Haves
represented by Buck’s Hwang and have-nots by Wang Lung, the poor
farmer, who works hard and rises to prosper by farming on the lands of
Hwang who “outsource” the tedious hard work to poor like Wang Lung.
Though Wang Lung catches up on prosperity and passes on the same to next
generation, sadly along with the rich heritage comes lack of respect for the
good earth.

How aptly the analogy holds true as Copenhagen buzzes with the rich and
the poor. The rich nations, who have outsourced manufacturing and dirty
chimney stacks to the poor nations, are trying hard to keep the sticks in their
hand and not parting with carrots either. The poor countries have a lot of
catching up to do with rich countries and are looking for a fair deal. The
western countries have dumped old outdated technologies in the developing
countries at exorbitant costs and now want them to pay for newer
technologies to reduce pollution or carbon footprint. As per Kyoto Protocol,
western countries are required to provide money & technology to poor
countries to fight global warming which is creation of the west. The rich
countries are trying to wriggle out of such commitments and want all
countries to have equal share of responsibilities.

The climates have changed due to global heritage of inefficient technologies

from the western countries. The poor countries are already feeling the
impact on agriculture pattern, uncertain rains, floods and draughts. The polar
caps and the Himalayas have been shrinking. There has been lack of respect
for the good earth by western countries greedy for their growth & prosperity.

By seeking to tie down poor nations to peaking year and targets for emission
cuts, the rich countries are ensuring guaranteed market for their new
technologies. With peaking year commitments for emissions they want to
cap the growth of poor countries. Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh has
categorically stated before departure to Copenhagen that "Climate change
cannot be addressed by perpetuating the poverty of the developing
countries".
G77 + China, including Africa, have been seeking funding from rich western
countries to the poor countries for managing technology up gradation and
related programs for cutting carbon emissions. African countries have shown
that they can make the difference between success and failure. After
considerable pushing to the brink of failure of the talks, the western nations
have reportedly committed US$ 22 billion for fighting against global
warming. Hilary Clinton has reportedly talked about joining US$100 billion
funding program to fight global warming.

A key aspect of the negotiations is transparency in implementation of

programs for emission cuts. Western countries ready to fund, want access for
evaluation of progress and China is adamant on denying such access. China
is manufacturing factory of the world with 50 % of their GDP coming from
manufacturing sector. Their carbon intensity is 2.85 tons per US$1000 of
GDP as against India’s 1.8 tons. China is number one polluting nation with
India as fifth on the list. China, currently the bankers to the US, does not
need funds to up grade their technologies. Nevertheless, they do have
obligation to convince the world that they are doing enough to cut down
emissions as per commitments made by them. This is particularly so in view
of not very reliable statistics coming out of China.

US have only 20% of GDP coming from manufacturing sector with almost
73% of GDP coming from services sector. Just like Pearl Buck’s Hwang,
they have outsourced manufacturing to Wang Lung or China. China must
find a way to be transparent on such an issue or else like the inheritors of
Wang Lung of Pearl Buck, the next generation Chinese will inherit wealth,
luxuries and lack of respect for the good earth. Chinese should prosper but
not lose sight of their responsibilities to the next generations.

US never ratified Kyoto protocol even as it is heading for end of phase

one by 2012. True leadership has to lead from the front. US can not
expect others to follow international obligations which itself is unwilling
to accept. US have announced emission cuts with base of 2005 instead of
1990 which makes their target within easy reach. They can not have
different starting or finishing lines. Even though their manufacturing sector
contributes only 20% of GDP of about US $ 14 trillion, their capita carbon
emission is about 20 tons as against China’s 4.5 ton and India’s 1.1 ton.
With 73 % GDP from services sector, US are a consuming economy not
producing. So their carbon emissions are more from consumption than from
manufacturing. At first strike, automobiles seem to be single largest
polluting product emitting carbon and therefore US should consider reducing
their automotive carbon foot print by planning public transport systems
which are almost non existent for the size of market and country. The
number of vehicles on the roads can be reduced with efficient public
transport. US consumers would not compromise even on their week end
outing but the world must be transparent enough to show the rich
countries that they are implementing emission cuts with access to
western inspectors. Can we have equitable standards for global
platforms?

The Danish Prime Minister in his opening speech hoped that Copenhagen
would be “Hopenhagen” for successful multilateral talks and a treaty.
Unfortunately, the President of the COP 15, Connie Hedegaard, was forced
to resign on allegations of favoring western countries. The controversial
Danish draft based on perpetuating the haves and have-nots has at last been
dropped. The Danes have perhaps realized that they brought the talks to
“Hopelesshagen” and must rescue the Summit with face saver. The
climate change conference seems to be heading for a UN Climate Change
Conference draft or in worst case a political declaration instead of an
international binding treaty post 2012.

The top political leaders of US, and G 77 + China must still work for an
equitable treaty based on transparency for all without exceptions including
US. For President Obama the short distance from Stockholm to Copenhagen
is running via two polar routes, the Alps, the Urals and the Himalayas all
facing the heat of global warming. Quite a “Polar Bearish” task indeed. He
will need to clutch his Nobel medal close to his heart and thank Pearl S.
Buck for writing “The Good Earth”.

Vijay M. Deshpande
Corporate Advisor,
Strategic Management Initiative,
Pune.

December 17, 2009

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