Tougher Sanctions Now: Putins

Delusional Quest for Empire

Aurel Braun-JULY/AUGUST 2014
This spring, as Russias puppet government in Crimea
moved clocks forward two hours to coincide with Moscow time, Vladimir Putin
seemed intent on moving the historical clock backwards to the age of nineteenth-
century Russian imperialism !s the leader of an economically weak and vulnerable
country with a corrupt governing class, the Russian president acted with bra"en
disregard for international law and norms, while the democratic #est played a totally
reactive role, and a feckless one at that $gnoring very reluctantly introduced, and very
limited, sanctions, Putin reciprocated with utter contempt for capitalist democracies,
where he believes profits will always trump principle, and especially for President
%bama, who, in the Russian dictators view, finds #estern unity only in weakness, not
in strength &ut even though what appear to be irreversible faits accomplis occur every
day in Crimea and eastern 'kraine, it is not too late for the #est to sei"e the initiative,
mobili"e its vast economic and political capacity, and put Putin and the (yes) chorus
of siloviki, who surround and encourage him, truly on the defensive
What is presently taking place in the regin !ay see! sel"#cntaine$% &ut there is actually a
great $eal at stake plitically% ecn!ically% an$ strategically "r the internatinal c!!unity'
The (in$( "r e""ecti)e actin% !re)er% is *uickly clsing' The West nee$s t un$erstan$
this% an$ &e (illing t !ake certain pain"ul sacri"ices% i" it is t &ring in e""ecti)e sanctins
against +utin an$ $isa&use hi! " his $elusinal an$ $angerus i!perial a!&itins' ," the
present curse " (eakly an$ incherently reacting t -ussia.s initiati)es cntinues t &e
pursue$% the (rl$% an$ ulti!ately e)en the -ussian peple% (ill )ery likely pay an
i!!easura&ly hea)ier price in ter!s " chas an$ cn"lict in the "uture'

Read On
Ukraine's Orange lues
/ll( (eekly c!!entary in Ale0an$er J' 1tyl2s Wrl$ A""airs &lg'
Part " "iguring ut h( t $eal (ith +utin in)l)es un$erstan$ing nt nly (hat he is $ing
&ut (hat he thinks he is $ing' This is a !atter " s!e speculatin a!ng (rl$ lea$ers'
Angela 1erkel% the !easure$ Ger!an chancellr% let it &e kn(n "ll(ing cn)ersatins (ith
+utin $uring the initial crisis that she "elt that he (as ut " tuch (ith reality' Si!ilarly%
"r!er US Secretary " State 1a$eleine Al&right has characteri3e$ +utin.s current actins as
$elusinary' , !ysel" ha)e argue$ else(here that his $!estic plicies represent a kin$ "
4plitical !agical realis!%5 c!&ining the "antastic (ith the real 6(ith the e!phasis
increasingly n the "r!er7 as a su&stitute "r ratinal plitical an$ ecn!ic plicy% resulting
in a plitical r$er that is si!ultaneusly repressi)e an$ risi&le' ,n the 8ri!ea an$ Ukraine%
+utin !ay &e acting ut " a certain $isrientatin as a result " the $e"initi)e nature " the
1ai$an !)e!ent.s re9ectin " his :urasian Unin% (hich he "elt he ha$ secure$ &y alliance
(ith the n( $eca!pe$ Yanuk)ych g)ern!ent in ;yi)% an$ its strng e!&race " the
:urpean Unin.s :astern +artnership' Withut Ukraine% +utin has little hpe " re&uil$ing the
-ussian :!pire an$ nce again attaining superp(er status'
,t (ul$ &e a !istake t think " his i!perial $rea!s as &acke$ &y a !aster plan' +utin !ay &e
&u!&ling an$ reckless in s!e regar$s% &ut he has re)eale$ hi!sel" as a !aster at sei3ing the
!ain chance' -ather than care"ully &lueprinting a realistic -ussian "uture% it see!s that he has
&ught int "r!er -ussian +ri!e 1inister Ye)geny +ri!ak).s $rea! " i!itating the
nineteenth#century -ussian chancellr Ale0an$er Grchak).s success in restring -ussia.s
great#p(er status "ll(ing 1sc(.s $e"eat in the 8ri!ean War' Grchak).s a$rit use "
!aneu)er% an$ e0plitatin " $i""erences a!ng ri)aling states n -ussia.s &r$ers% h(e)er%
ccurre$ in a $i""erent (rl$% an$ in)l)e$ a su&tlety that +utin.s in)asin " the 8ri!ea sh(s
he has nt &there$ t culti)ate' <e (ants t re&uil$ (hat he cnsi$ers nineteenth#century
-ussia.s gran$eur in the "r!er S)iet space% &ut he $esn.t (ant t ackn(le$ge the &stacle
t such a $esire pse$ &y -ussia.s "ailing ecn!ic !nculture% the crrsi)eness " his
cuntry.s en$e!ic crruptin% r the "act that% (hile he !ight !anage t s(all( Ukraine%
actually $igesting its plitical acti)is! (ul$% irnically% $eeply threaten his hl$ n p(er'

!ussia.s stark )ilatin " Ukrainian s)ereignty in anne0ing 8ri!ea is nt 9ust a "rntal
""ense against internatinal la( an$ nr!s &ut a lng#ter! threat t the entire internatinal
syste!="r! the reginal le)el t the gl&al' -ussia lacks the S)iet Unin.s uni)ersalistic
i$elgy an$ )ast !ilitary p(er% &ut e)en thugh this is nt a ne( cl$ (ar% +utin.s
aggressi)eness has pr"un$ly $angerus i!plicatins' The in)asin (as a set&ack in the e""rt
t cntrl nuclear prli"eratin' +ri!e 1inister Stephen <arper " 8ana$a% )isiting the
Ukrainian capital n 1arch 22n$% crrectly pinte$ ut that Ukraine ha$ agree$% in 1>>4% )ia
the Bu$apest 1e!ran$u!% t gi)e up its nuclear (eapns in return "r guarantees " its
s)ereignty &y -ussia an$ Western p(ers' ,n &reaching the e0plicit -ussian guarantee "
Ukraine.s territrial integrity 6inclu$ing 8ri!ea7% <arper $eclare$% 4+resi$ent +utin has
pr)i$e$ a ratinale "r thse else(here (h nee$e$ little !re encurage!ent than that
alrea$y "urnishe$ &y pri$e r grie)ance t ar! the!sel)es t the teeth'5 ,t is $u&t"ul that
-ussia (ul$ ha)e $are$ in)a$e 8ri!ea ha$ ;yi) retaine$ its nuclear (eapns% an$ e*ually
unlikely that this lessn is lst n ,ran an$ ther nuclear aspirants' Als% &ecause " the
(eakness " the Western an$ especially the A!erican respnse% the in)asin " 8ri!ea (ill
&ec!e an &9ect lessn "r 8hina an$ cuntries in the 1i$$le :ast a&ut (hat is per!issi&le
n the (rl$ stage' 8!ing at a ti!e " re$uce$ !ilitary &u$gets in Washingtn% ?&a!a.s
)aunte$ pi)t t Asia% $esigne$ t $eal (ith an increasingly asserti)e 8hina% is &eginning t
lk !re like a c!ic piruette' 1i$$le :astern states "r! ,srael t Sau$i Ara&ia are likely
t &e "rce$ t re#e0a!ine the cre$i&ility " A!erican !ilitary c!!it!ents=as are A!erican
allies e)ery(here'
By generating crisis in Ukraine% +utin has )ali$ate$ his strategy " 4"r3en cn"licts%5 (hich he
use$ in Transnistria% @agrn#;ara&akh% an$ Suth ?ssetia an$ A&kha3ia t !anipulate r
threaten 6r &th7 1l$)a% Ar!enia% an$ Gergia% respecti)ely' 1sc(% "r all intents an$
purpses% has alrea$y anne0e$ Suth ?ssetia an$ A&kha3ia' ,n Transnistria% an unrecgni3e$
&reaka(ay regin " 1l$)a run &y a thuggish $ictatrship prtecte$ &y -ussian trps%
1sc( has &een !aking !inus threats=all un$er the ru&ric " prtecting -ussian#speaking
peples' -ussia.s ultranatinalist $eputy pri!e !inister% A!itry -g3in% "alsely clai!e$ n
1arch 1Bth that Transnistria (as un$er 4&lcka$e5 &y Ukraine an$ (arne$ 1l$)a against
signing the :astern +artnership agree!ent (ith the :U% (hich 1l$)a ha$ initiale$ last "all'
1uch t @AT?.s alar!% Transnistria.s lea$ership has itsel" calle$ "r anne0atin t -ussia'
/urther% n 1ay >th% Cictry Aay "r the -e$ Ar!y against @a3i Ger!any% -g3in "le( t
Transnistria% threatene$ t (ipe ut "ascis! (ith 4a &ullet in the hea$%5 an$% a"ter clai!ing that
-!ania an$ Ukraine ha$ re"use$ his aircra"t transit in their airspace 6$espite sa"ely returning
t 1sc( n 1ay 10th7% he threateningly t(eete$ that the ne0t ti!e he (ul$ 4"ly a TU#1D05
&!&er t 1l$)a.s &reaka(ay regin' ,t is little (n$er that -!anian an$ 1l$)an
lea$ers ha)e urge$ the :U t ""er 1l$)a !e!&ership t pr)i$e the cuntry (ith security'
,n the case " Ar!enia% 1sc( (as a&le t use the threat " (ith$ra(ing its supprt regar$ing
@agrn#;ara&akh% a largely Ar!enian encla)e (ithin A3er&ai9an% t in$uce the Ar!enians t
a&ruptly s(itch plicy% "r! 9ining the :astern +artnership (ith the :U t starting the prcess
" &ec!ing part " the ;re!lin#cntrlle$ :urasian Unin'
,n su!% 1sc( has &een a&le t 4un"ree3e5 these 4"r3en5 cn"licts at (ill t pressure an$
&ully )arius pst#S)iet repu&lics' All this has &een part " the larger ;re!lin gal " re#
creating a -ussian#cntrlle$ e!pire (ithin the "r!er S)iet space'

"n their strng $esire "r a nn#cn"rntatinal slutin t -ussian aggressin in 8ri!ea%
especially ne that $es nt challenge +utin $irectly% a nu!&er " pr!inent Western analysts
ha)e increasingly talke$ a&ut "e$erali3ing r 4/inlan$i3ing5 Ukraine' Lea)ing asi$e the rather
$u&ius !ral an$ histrical lgic " c!paring Ukraine t /inlan$ 6<elsinki entere$ the (ar
against Stalin n June 2D% 1>41="ur $ays a"ter @a3i Ger!any in)a$e$ the S)iet Unin=as
a c#&elligerent7% 4/inlan$i3atin5 is nt likely t (rk in Ukraine "r t( key reasns'
/irst% Ukraine% a cuntry " s!e "rty#"ur !illin 6e)en (ithut 8ri!ea7% an inncent )icti!
" aggressin% has clearly chsen :urpeani3atin an$ !$erni3atin% (hich !any " its
citi3ens pai$ "r (ith their li)es at the 1ai$an' The ;re!lin% playing n the "ears " s!e
-ussian speakers in eastern an$ suthern Ukraine% cannt $elete this aspiratin% regar$less " its
intensi)e prpagan$a an$ pr)catins' ,t is als highly unlikely that the peple " Ukraine%
there"re% (ul$ accept the a$$itinal hu!iliatin " the censrship an$ sel"#censrship that
/inlan$ ha$ t li)e (ith "ll(ing <elsinki.s cerce$ signing " the 4Agree!ent " /rien$ship%
8peratin% an$ 1utual Assistance5 (ith the S)iet Unin in 1>4B% (hich in)l)e$ &anning
&ks an$ !)ies that (ere $ee!e$ anti#S)iet' 1re i!prtantly% $espite its plitical
hu!iliatin% /inlan$ en9ye$ a )ery large $egree " ecn!ic an$ legal "ree$! that the
;re!lin (ul$ &e unlikely t tlerate in a 4/inlan$i3e$5 Ukraine' The current crisis is nt
a&ut Ukraine 9ining @AT?% a !)e "r (hich there is n great pu&lic $e!an$' -ather it is
a&ut the pssi&ility that Ukraine (ul$ re9ect integratin int the :urasian Unin% (hich is
key t +utin.s "antasies " re&uil$ing a -ussian :!pire' <e cul$ nt accept the pssi&ility " a
success"ul% :urpeani3e$ Ukraine% prsperus an$ g)erne$ &y the rule " la(% (here a
4Ukraine )irus5 !ight &e &re$ that (ul$ ulti!ately 4in"ect5 -ussia' Ukrainian "e$eralis!
(ul$ als &e a "alse slutin' +ut asi$e "r the !!ent -ussia.s (n cnstitutinal
arrange!ent% (hich rese!&les Western "e$eralis! in "r! nly' ,n the case " Ukraine% -ussia
(ul$ use "e$eralis! as a 9usti"icatin "r ne( legal pressures an$ e0cuses t separate an$ then
anne0 a$$itinal regins% r t $esta&ili3e Ukraine as a (hle t "rce ;yi) t re9in -ussia'
Thugh +utin has acte$ incre!entally s "ar% there is little $u&t a&ut his ulti!ate gal " nt
nly the ecn!ic &ut als the "ull plitical integratin " Ukraine int a 4Greater -ussia'5
Auring his triu!phalist )isit t 8ri!ea n 1ay >th% "r instance% he calle$ the illegal
anne0atin " that territry 4 ' ' ' a""ir!ing "i$elity t the histrical truth an$ the !e!ry " ur
ancestrs'5 ,t is als nte(rthy that +utin has taken t calling suthern an$ eastern Ukraine &y
an i!perial -ussian ter!% @)rssiya 6@e( -ussia7'

Eurpean lea$ers% (h n 1arch Dth threatene$ t i!pse &ra$ ecn!ic sanctins i"
1sc( engages in 4"urther steps t $esta&ili3e the situatin in Ukraine%5 certainly $i$n.t
"ll( thrugh (ith their threats (hen -ussia in)a$e$ an$ anne0e$ 8ri!ea' These sa!e
lea$ers als un"rtunately ignre$ the ;re!lin.s nging=&eginning (ith ?&a!a.s
presi$ency in 200>=an$ increasingly &l$% an$ un$er internatinal la( illiterate% clai!s that it
ha$ a right t prtect -ussians li)ing in "r!er S)iet lan$s an$ that 1sc( ha$ !a$e this
part " -ussian !ilitary $ctrine% 9ust as they ha$ als ignre$ threats% ging &ack t 201E% that
+utin le)ele$ at ;yi) i" it signe$ the :astern +artnership (ith the :U' A$$ing t Western
ine""ecti)eness% ?&a!a% $uring the current crisis% &i3arrely lecture$ +utin in their telephne
cn)ersatins that he (as 4n the (rng si$e " histry%5 t (hich the -ussian lea$er !ight
(ell ha)e re"lecte$ t hi!sel"% 8lintn#style% 4Aepen$s n (hat yur $e"initin " Fhistry. is'5
,n cntrast t (a)ering an$ han$#(ringing in the West% +utin see!s nt nly reslute &ut
increasingly p(er"ul (ithin -ussia' <is ppularity% "uele$ &y see!ingly cst#"ree cn*uest
an$ relentless !e$ia !anipulatin% reache$ eighty#t( percent &y the en$ " April 2014% 9ust
&el( the high " eighty#"i)e percent " spring 200B 6a"ter (hich it "ell precipitusly7%
accr$ing t plling &y the in$epen$ent Le)a$a 8enter' As (ith !uch else in -ussia% h(e)er%
reality an$ appearance here $ nt necessarily cinci$e' +utin.s ppularity is highly likely t &e
ephe!eral% gi)en that chau)inis! is su&9ect t its (n la(s " $i!inishing returns' There ha)e
&een s!e signi"icant $e!nstratins against his plicy in Ukraine alrea$y% althugh they are
un$erreprte$ in the West% an$ (e shul$ nt "rget the !ass prtests he "ace$ in 2011 an$
2012' The -ussian ecn!y cntinues t $ prly an$ is stuck at a )ery l( &ase% an$
-ussia.s assciatin (ith )arius ne"arius an$ &l$y $ictatrships is har$ly likely t increase
1sc(.s prestige in the (rl$'
As a result% the West has !any ptins &eyn$ the reacti)e "ecklessness that has characteri3e$
its apprach t the crisis thus "ar' But i" it is t get int the ga!e% it nee$s t take the initiati)e
&th plitically an$ ecn!ically' S"t p(er alne has nt $eterre$ -ussia% an$ neither ha)e
the 4s"t5 sanctins it has i!pse$' This is (hy the West has t !)e t sanctins that (ill &e a
"r! " har$ p(er% e)en thugh they (ill nt &e cst "ree'
,nternatinal plitical prestige is central t +utin in his $rea! " -ussian restratin'
Signi"icant internatinal stracis!% as ppse$ t the (rist slaps e!plye$ thus "ar% (ul$ &e a
pain"ul &l( "r hi!' ,n this regar$% the West has !any ptins' 8hancellr 1erkel has alrea$y
state$% "r instance% that 4at the !!ent% the GB $esn.t e0ist any!re%5 re"erring t the Grup
" B.s te!prary &yctt " -ussian !e!&ership' ,t is encuraging that Ger!any% (hich
cn$ucts a great $eal " tra$e (ith -ussia an$ has a cnsi$era&le $egree " $epen$ence n
-ussian energy% is in$icating that it is prepare$ t !ake i!prtant sacri"ices' ,t (ul$ &e !re
signi"icant "r -ussia t &e "r!ally e0pelle$ "r! the GB'
Steps shul$ als &e taken at the U@ t try t e0pel -ussia "r! the <u!an -ights 8uncil'
There are !echanis!s "r $ing this% an$ e)en i" nt success"ul the West (ul$ &e putting
+utin n the $e"ensi)e' /urther% the Unite$ States an$ its allies shul$ push "r a$$itinal
cn$e!natry reslutins &y the Security 8uncil t "rce -ussia t use its )et an$ cntinue
t ha)e 8hina a&stain' Thugh the i!!e$iate i!pact " each actin at the Unite$ @atins !ay
&e li!ite$% the cu!ulati)e e""ect (ul$ help &th hu!&le -ussia an$ keep it "" &alance'
S "ar thugh% any suggestin that +utin has &linke$ in saying that he accepte$ the results " the
Ukraine presi$ential electin is nt !erely pre!atureG it ges against the e)i$ence that he has
!aintaine$ his strategic gals regar$ing Ukraine% e)en i" his !st recent tactics% again% suggest
a gra$ualist apprach' <e cntinues t insist n 4"e$eralis!5 in Ukraine% (hich in the current
-ussian i!perialist le0icn% as nte$% is a prelu$e t anne0atin slice &y slice% an$ has
!aintaine$ 1sc(.s &rutal ecn!ic pressure n ;yi)' Se!inally% the ;re!lin cntinues its
large stealth !ilitary presence in eastern Ukraine an$ in s!e (ays has enhance$ it% sen$ing in
!re pr"essinal an$ $iscipline$ "rces like the c!&at#e0perience$ Cstk Battalin t &ring
r$er t the secessinists an$ t strea!line an$ strengthen 1sc(.s cntrl in key parts " the
regin'
/urther% the e0tre!ely li!ite$ sanctins that the West has i!pse$ n -ussia see! t ha)e little
ill e""ect n 1sc(.s ther acti)ities' +utin (as in)ite$ &y +resi$ent /ranHis <llan$e t
atten$ the June A#Aay c!!e!ratin in @r!an$y an$ $ine (ith hi! at the IlysJe +alace'
/rance% $espite &9ectins "r! its allies% has in$icate$ that it inten$s t $eli)er the t(
a$)ance$ K1'E &illin helicpter carriers t the -ussian na)y% as cntracte$' At the St'
+eters&urg ,nternatinal :cn!ic "ru! in 1ay% !a9r Western il c!panies% inclu$ing
A!erica.s :00n 1&il% sat $(n (ith -ussian il giant -sne"t.s Western#sanctine$ chie"
e0ecuti)e% ,gr Sechin% an$ )irtually "ell )er the!sel)es trying t in$icate that they (ill
cntinue r e)en enhance their &usiness ties (ith -ussia' B+% (hich alrea$y has a clse t
t(enty percent stake in -sne"t% signe$ a !a9r agree!ent t 9intly e0plre har$#t#rec)er il
in -ussia (ith its -ussian partner' ,n St' +eters&urg% B+ 8:? B& Au$ley $eclare$ that 4We
ha)e a respnsi&ility t stan$ (ith ur L-ussianM partners in $i""icult ti!es%5 (hile 8hristphe
$e 1argerie "r! /rance.s Ttal% (hich reache$ a $eal (ith -ussia.s Lukil% prclai!e$% 41y
!essage t -ussia is si!ple=&usiness as usual'5 8rucially% 1sc( in 1ay als reache$ the
largest energy e0prt $eal in histry (hen it signe$ a K400 &illin agree!ent t supply 8hina
(ith natural gas' An$ at the en$ " 1ay% +utin an$ the lea$ers " ;a3akhstan an$ Belarus
signe$ a &ra$ cust!s unin% the :urasian :cn!ic Unin% (hich% as part " -ussia.s
:urasianis!% is !eant t &ring the ecn!ies " the t( s!aller states un$er 1sc(.s
cntrl' Ar!enia an$ ;yrgy3stan are als !)ing t c!e un$er 1sc(.s "ull tutelage as
they "ace unrelenting pressure "r! the ;re!lin' 8nse*uently% +resi$ent ?&a!a.s suggestin%
in his !a9r "reign plicy speech at West +int n 1ay 2Bth% that the current sanctins an$ his
a$!inistratin.s a&ility t shape (rl$ pinin 4helpe$ islate -ussia right a(ay5 har$ly rises
a&)e the risi&le'
:cn!ic sanctins% h(e)er% can ha)e a real i!pact n -ussia.s ecn!y% as it is largely ne#
$i!ensinal% an$ )ery $i""erent "r! the autarkic S)iet syste!' There are n( )ast -ussian
assets a&ra$% a stck !arket in 1sc(% -ussian s)ereign &n$s% an$ a huge nu!&er "
ligarchs clsely tie$ t +utin' The -ussian &anking syste! "unctins (ithin the internatinal
ne% an$ "r all the "ear generate$ &y the pssi&ility that it (ill turn "" the gas )al)es% -ussia is
e)en !re $epen$ent n energy e0prts than :urpe is n such i!prts'
/r the West t take the initiati)e% gi)en the lng#ter! csts " nt checking -ussia.s $angerus
i!perial $elusins% ecn!ic sanctins nee$ t &e applie$ !assi)ely an$ $ecisi)ely' S(e$ish
ecn!ist An$ers Aslun$% there"re% is *uite crrect a&ut the $esira&ility " a +(ell
ActrineNlike apprach=shck an$ a(e=t ecn!ic sanctins against +utin.s -ussia'
Sanctins against hun$re$s " ligarchs (ul$ ha)e an enr!usly $isrupti)e e""ect nt nly
n thse clse t the -ussian presi$ent &ut n the )ulnera&le -ussian ecn!y itsel"' ,t (ul$
greatly $a!pen ppular enthusias! "r -ussian "reign a$)enturis! as the csts &egin t sink
in' 8!prehensi)e &anking an$ c!!ercial sanctins (ul$ cause tre!en$us $isruptin an$
s!e pain nt nly "r the 9et#setting rich &ut "r r$inary -ussians' Assess!ents &y
Bl!&erg% "r instance% ha)e sh(n 9ust h( gra)e the risk gauges "r -ussia are% particularly
in ter!s " asset )alues% s)ereign "un$s% an$ ru&le )latility% a!ng ther areas 6see 4+utin
Ae&t t :*uity <it n 8ri!ea Sei3ure%5 a)aila&le at Bl!&erg.s (e&site7'
:nergy is anther pi)tal area (here the West cul$ an$ shul$ act' :urpean $epen$ence n
-ussian energy has &een $i!inishing% an$ e)en Ger!an lea$ers ha)e in$icate$ their rea$iness%
un$er certain circu!stances% t i!pse sanctins $espite their large reliance n -ussia "r
energy i!prts' The West has als taken steps t &e a&le t supply !re#)ulnera&le states in
:urpe &y $e)elping the capacity t re)erse "l(s in pipelines' The :urpeans nee$ t sharply
increase such a capacity an$ sprea$ the &ur$en' The US can als help &y signaling that in the
"uture it (ill &ring its )ast energy resurces t &ear &y authri3ing the "uture sale " li*ue"ie$
natural gas t :urpe n a signi"icant scale% an$ &y appr)ing the ;eystne +ipeline' /urther%
the West shul$ a&an$n nce an$ "r all the -ussian pipeline pr9ect Suth Strea!% (hich
(ul$ transprt -ussian natural gas thrugh the Black Sea t Bulgaria an$ then t Greece%
,taly% an$ Austria% an$ "cus all its e""rts n re)i)ing its ri)al% the !ri&un$ @a&ucc pipeline%
(hich (ul$ &ring natural gas "r! the 8entral Asian repu&lics t the :urpean states'
The gl&al energy picture is changing rapi$ly thanks t )ast ne( $isc)eries " natural gas in
shale an$ a$$itinal surces " ""shre il in )arius parts " the (rl$' -ussia kn(s that its
a&ility t use energy &lack!ail an$ pipeline $ipl!acy is $i!inishing' The West shul$
in$icate% in n uncertain ter!s% that it kn(s this t% an$ that it (ill n lnger truckle t
+utin.s clu!sy &ullying'
The West.s (ill"ul helplessness in the "ace " -ussian aggressin is nt nly inc!prehensi&le
&ut% i" Ukraine is sacri"ice$% (ill &e histrically un"rgi)a&le' The West has the capacity t act
e""ecti)ely t stp an$ e)en re)erse -ussia.s aggressin' But "r the West t &e success"ul here
it als nee$s t appreciate that in $ealing (ith -ussia% 4s"t5 an$ 4har$5 p(er cannt &e
segregate$ r cn"use$ (ith ne anther' S"t p(er alne is like ha)ing crea! in the !rning
(ithut the c""ee' There is n reasn "r the West t &e reacti)e an$ $e"eatist'
Aurel Braun is a )isiting pr"essr in the $epart!ent " g)ern!ent at <ar)ar$ Uni)ersity an$
a pr"essr " plitical science an$ internatinal relatins at the Uni)ersity " Trnt' <is
latest &k is @AT?#-ussian -elatins in the T(enty#/irst 8entury'