CISAC center for international

security and cooperation

stanford university
center overview 2006 –2007

Insight&Impact
Knowledge to Build a Safer World
 CISAC
CISAC’s Mission

To produce policy-relevant research on international security problems.

To influence policymaking in international security.
To train the next generation of security specialists.

Knowledge to Build a Safer World

The Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) is a multidisciplinary
research center within the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at
Stanford University.
As an integral part of one of the world’s leading universities, CISAC is committed
to producing knowledge to build a safer world.
CISAC’s research provides insight on current and emerging global threats, from
different academic fields as well as from diverse practical and political perspectives.
CISAC uses this rich insight to make an impact, helping to build a safer world
by actively engaging with policymakers worldwide.
CISAC extends its insight & impact by training the next generation of
security specialists who will carry forward this important work.

photo: (cover) CISAC co-director Siegfried Hecker visited with students in an English class at Middle School 1 in Pyongyang,
during his fall 2006 visit to North Korea with John Lewis, CISAC’s founding co-director. (photo by John Lewis)
Contents
3 Letter from the Co-Directors
4 Policy-Relevant Research
10 Influencing Policy
16 Training the Next Generation
22 Honors Graduates
24 Selected Publications and Presentations
28 CISAC People
30 Donors
31 Financial Highlights

CISAC
Programs

pg 5 pg 15 pg 18 pg 22
CISAC honors student Sherri Studying in Basra, Iraq, Siegfried Hecker, CISAC’s CISAC’s Interschool Honors
Hansen interviewed former CISAC fellow David Patel new co-director, trains a new Program in International
combatants in Sierra Leone found Shia clerics inspired generation of international Security Studies is building
to find out why some rebel new civic participation security experts at Stanford, a cadre of professionals
groups use child soldiers among their followers after while working with scientists who will help lead and
and others do not. Saddam Hussein’s defeat. around the world to secure influence policymaking for
nuclear weapons materials. years to come.

cisac 1
 CISAC’s directing staff: Siegfried Hecker, co-director;
Elizabeth Gardner, associate director for administration

CISAC
and external affairs; Lynn Eden, associate director for
research; and Scott Sagan, co-director.

“There can be no lasting security without cooperation — the last ‘C’ in CISAC.”
Siegfried Hecker and Scott Sagan, CISAC co-directors
Center for International Security
and Cooperation

Letter from the Co-Directors As the Iraqi situation continues to decline, Afghanistan slips
backward, Russia is irritated by recent U.S. security moves in Eastern Europe, and Iran
pushes ahead with its nuclear program, the United States is learning that there can be no
lasting security without cooperation — the last “C” in CISAC.
The Iraq Study Group, which had CISAC’s Bill Perry as a member, called for cooperation
with Iran and Syria to reduce the risks of further escalation in the civil war in Iraq. In his
Foreign Affairs article, Scott Sagan pointed to the need for the United States to cooperate
with Russia, China, and the European powers to reduce Tehran’s security fears, as a
necessary step to diminish Iran’s incentives to acquire nuclear weapons. John Lewis and
Sig Hecker returned from their latest trip to North Korea to help develop the cooperation
for peace building and denuclearization. Steve Stedman, Jim Fearon, Jeremy Weinstein, and
many of their students examined the kinds of multilateral cooperation that will be needed
to address the interrelated problems of civil war, food scarcity, environmental degradation,
and poverty in Africa today.
In addition to the center’s research on such key problems, we take great pride in watching
the next generation of specialists grow. Predoctoral fellows complete their dissertations;
postdoctoral fellows publish articles and books and move into influential jobs; and Stanford
undergraduate honors students get turned on by international security challenges and
decide to dig deeper in their future studies.
This Center Overview shares just some of the highlights of the past year’s work by our
faculty, fellows, and students — the insights they offer on security problems around the
globe and the impact they have had on international policies. You’ll also meet a few Friends
of CISAC as well as some researchers in residence at the center in 2007–2008 who will
continue to make CISAC a vibrant success.
We hope this review heightens your interest in CISAC. We invite you to visit the center,
participate in our seminars and workshops, and contribute to our efforts to solve international
security problems. Come watch our next generation of specialists grow. We know you
will be impressed by their enthusiasm and dedication. We thank the foundations, national
laboratories, companies, and many private individuals whose generosity helps make this
work possible. And we very much welcome newcomers to the center.

Siegfried S. Hecker Scott D. Sagan

letter from the co-directors cisac 3

 Sherri Hansen, 2007 CISAC honors graduate, with children of
research colleagues in Sierra Leone, where she did field research
in summer 2006. Her thesis won the William J. Perry Award.

Insight
CISAC’s policy-relevant research provides insight on current and emerging
global threats, from different academic fields as well as from diverse practical
and political perspectives.
Policy-Relevant Research

Sherri Hansen
Explaining the Use of Child Soldiers

Why do some rebel groups use child soldiers, while others do not? In research for her CISAC
undergraduate honors thesis, Sherri Hansen found a lot of reasons advanced — poverty,
low education levels, high rates of orphanhood among the child recruits, or perhaps an
abundance of small arms that children could easily handle.
But these reasons did not explain why two otherwise similar armed groups would make
very different choices about employing children — as was the case with the Revolutionary
United Front (RUF) and Civil Defense Forces (CDF) in Sierra Leone.
To understand each group’s reasoning about the use of children in war, Hansen traveled
in summer 2006 to Sierra Leone, where she interviewed 60 former combatants, including
former child soldiers and mid-level commanders. Hansen got in touch with her interviewees
through PRIDE, a non-governmental organization that does advocacy for ex-combatants.
The organization had previously served as a local survey partner for Hansen’s thesis advisor,
Jeremy Weinstein, a political science professor affiliated with CISAC, when he interviewed
ex-combatants in Sierra Leone.
“The RUF and CDF emerged in similar conditions,” Hansen said, “but they had different
uses of child soldiers.” The RUF forcibly recruited children and employed them in combat.
The CDF used a small number of children and in less dangerous support roles.
She found a cost-benefit analysis underlying the groups’ decisions. “Although the forcible
recruitment of children is often explained in terms of its military utility, it also carries a
high social cost,” she said. Using children, especially in combat, would cost a group social
support from its community, which would have to be weighed against benefits such as a
monetarily cheap, malleable labor force.
For the RUF, an “opportunistic rebellion that grew out of a student revolution,” forcing
children into combat “was a rational strategy, because [the RUF] didn’t have to marshal
civilian support and didn’t necessarily want it,” Hansen explained. The RUF could afford
the high social cost of using child conscripts, because it looted local resources, including
diamonds, to support itself.
The CDF, on the other hand, “collaborated with civilians” and relied heavily on community
support. The group did not risk losing that support by committing children to combat.
Current international prohibitions against using child soldiers have little effect on groups
that are not bound by social support or norms, Hansen pointed out. She recommended
“treating the use of child soldiers as a war crime, in and of itself,” to help enforce the
prohibitions. “The extensive presence of children in an armed force is easier to prove than
[showing] commanders had knowledge of atrocities individual soldiers were committing.”
She added that criminalizing the practice in this way would also pressure national
governments to refrain from supporting militias that use child soldiers.

policy-relevant research cisac 5

photo: CISAC faculty member Jeremy Weinstein explored connections between AIDS and sub-par governance in Uganda.

Deadly Connections
Understanding Links Among Diverse Threats

Why do civil wars occur in the poorest states? How could global climate change worsen the
spread of malaria and dengue fever in some regions? Does hunger breed armed conflict?
CISAC and FSI senior fellow Stephen Stedman found claims linking threats such as civil
war and poverty but little systematic study of these connections, as he directed research
for the United Nations High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change in 2003–2004.
Rosamond Naylor, also an FSI senior fellow, was thinking along similar lines as she
started the Program on Food Security and the Environment (FSE), a joint program between
FSI and the Woods Institute for the Environment. She designed FSE to bring together
experts in climate science, medicine, economics, and other fields to seek innovative
solutions to global hunger.
Naylor and Stedman collaborated to start Deadly Connections, a research project directed
by Naylor under the FSE program, to investigate links among a range of security threats.
In 2006–2007, its first year, the project convened political scientists, economists, medical
doctors, agriculturists, and climate scientists to explore policy issues for potential collaborative
study. In a series of six meetings, they examined connections between war and disease,
water quality and disease, scarcity and civil strife, poverty and civil war recruitment.
Jeremy Weinstein, an assistant professor of political science affiliated with CISAC and
Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), presented
evidence of an often-claimed connection between AIDS and social instability or sub-par
governance, from his study of Uganda. Like other presenters, he noted the need for further
research in Uganda and elsewhere, to clarify points he had not resolved.
“Knowing how and why HIV/AIDS undermines stability is essential for thinking about
policy responses,” Weinstein said.
In the year’s final session, David Battisti, an atmospheric scientist at the University of
Washington, spoke on climate change in conflict-prone countries in Africa’s Sahel, a wide
band between the Sahara and more tropical regions to the south. He noted that climate
change models predict the Sahel will warm to levels far beyond those experienced before,
likely posing a severe threat to the region’s mainly agricultural societies.
“I had not seen global climate change as something that might bear directly on politics in
countries I study in Africa,” said James Fearon, a political science professor affiliated with
CISAC and CDDRL. “But due to David Battisti’s presentation I’m now thinking otherwise.”

6 cisac policy-relevant research

photo: Former CISAC co-director William Perry advised Sheena Chestnut on her influential 2005 CISAC honors thesis,
“The ‘Sopranos State’? North Korean Involvement in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security.”

Sheena Chestnut
Preventing North Korea’s Smuggling Networks from Expanding to Nuclear Trade

In her 2005 CISAC honors thesis, Sheena Chestnut suggested that North Korean counterfeiting
and trafficking operations pose a serious international security concern, as they could be
expanded without detection for use in smuggling nuclear-weapons-related materials or
technology to other nations or terrorists.
While Chestnut pursued a master’s degree in international relations at Oxford University
on a Marshall Scholarship, her thesis, “The ‘Sopranos State’? North Korean Involvement
in Criminal Activity and Implications for International Security,” which the Nautilus Institute
published online in 2005, was being quoted in policy circles. It was cited in an April 2006
U.S. Senate subcommittee hearing on illicit activity funding the North Korean regime and,
in Seoul, the South Korean government drew from Chestnut’s thesis in a presentation
before the national assembly in early 2006. In July 2006 a New York Times magazine article
referred to the thesis, as did a Time article in July 2007.
The influence of Chestnut’s research can only be expected to increase now that it appears,
revised and updated, in the summer 2007 International Security, a leading scholarly journal
that is highly influential in policy debate.
In the article, Chestnut, now a doctoral student in government at Harvard University,
outlines conditions that might lead the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) to
engage in illicit nuclear trade — a possibility that CISAC co-director Siegfried Hecker and
former co-director William Perry, among others, have indicated as the greatest security
threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
The DPRK is “more likely to sell nuclear material or technology to prevent its situation from
deteriorating untenably, rather than simply to make a profit,” Chestnut said. “Paradoxically,
“measures intended to constrict DPRK smuggling capabilities, by cutting off the leadership’s
illicit flow of hard currency, may actually increase its motivation to conduct a sale.”
Chestnut posits that deterring North Korean transfer of nuclear materials is within
policymakers’ means. Counter-smuggling and nonproliferation efforts should be part of a
“comprehensive security strategy,” she said.
“Although halting proliferation and stopping criminal activity can sometimes be in tension
with each other,” Chestnut commented, “as we’ve seen in the past year of dealing with
the DPRK, we can’t have a successful policy that doesn’t incorporate both aspects, and it’s
possible to make them complement rather than compete with each other.”

policy-relevant research cisac 7

photos: (above) Jacob Shapiro analyzed captured al Qa’ida documents, assembled
in a database at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center. (right) Al Qa’ida kept
employee training and education records, including student identification cards, such
as this one for Said Bakar. (Harmony Database, Combating Terrorism Center)

Interview with Jacob Shapiro

Finding Ways to Exploit Terrorists’ Weaknesses

Jacob Shapiro studies economic motivations in terrorist organizations and the organizational
challenges terrorists face. Armed with a better understanding of these factors, policymakers
can pursue strategies that will exploit terrorists’ weaknesses, he explains.
As a CISAC predoctoral fellow, Shapiro advised Department of Homeland Security officials
on revising the multilevel alert system and critiqued TOPOFF-3, a federally organized
terrorism-response exercise. He joined the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point as an
affiliate, collaborating on the analysis of documents captured from terrorists. A former
Navy officer, Shapiro completed his dissertation, The Terrorist’s Challenge: Security, Efficiency,
Control, and earned his master’s in economics and PhD in political science from Stanford.
He joins the faculty at Princeton University’s Department of Politics in winter 2008.
Q: What impact do you hope your research will have, and on whom?
I’d like to build a greater appreciation among both policymakers and the public for how
normal [terrorist] groups are. When we treat these groups as special, we do two negative
things. First, we blind ourselves to certain opportunities for degrading their ability to conduct
attacks. Second, we greatly exaggerate the threat. These are organizations made of normal
human beings, with all the frailties, personality conflicts, and disagreements that implies.
They face a very hard task, and we should not expect them to be any better than other
organizations operating in similarly difficult environments.
Q: How did you get involved with the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point? What does
your work with the center involve?
A close friend, Lt. Col. Joe Felter, took over as director of the CTC after finishing his PhD in
political science here at Stanford. He asked me to help out with its first report analyzing
the U.S. government’s database of captured al-Qa’ida documents — something called the
Harmony Database.
Our first report laid out why al-Qa’ida was trying to become so bureaucratic before the
invasion of Afghanistan and why it was doing so. Our analysis stresses that, by their nature,
terrorist organizations such as al-Qa’ida face difficulties in almost any environment.
Many of their problems are common to other types of organizations. For example, leaders
must delegate certain duties to middlemen or low-level operatives, but differences in
personal preferences between the leadership and their operatives can create problems for

8 cisac policy-relevant research

“When we treat [terrorist] groups as special, we do two
negative things. First, we blind ourselves to certain
opportunities for degrading their ability to conduct
attacks. Second, we greatly exaggerate the threat.”
Jacob Shapiro, CISAC predoctoral fellow
the organization. To combat threats
posted by al-Qa’ida, we emphasize
aggravating existing conflicts among the
group’s members.
Our second Harmony report just
came out. In it we analyzed al-Qa’ida’s
experiences in the Horn of Africa.
I am helping frame and understand
what we’re seeing in the data, be it
internal correspondence from al-Qa’ida or
statistical patterns of violence in Iraq.
Q: Could you say a little about how your
Navy service may inform your research?
It makes me much more sensitive to
framing questions in ways that are useful
to policymakers. Often in social science
there’s a tension between using concepts
that are theoretically solicitous and
concepts that have clear practical impli-
cations. My experiences lead me to err on
the side of practical implications.
Also, it made me very aware of how
important organizations are. The Navy
is a fascinating conglomeration of
organizations with distinct cultures that
are independent for much of their
training cycle but must operate in an
integrated fashion when they deploy.
Seeing that certainly made me more
attuned to how much internal structures
influence organizational behavior.
policy-relevant research
Karen and Mo Zukerman
Supporting Interdisciplinary Synergies
Karen D. Zukerman holds an AB (anthropology)
from Stanford University and an MA (archaeology)
from New York University. She is a trustee of
Earthwatch Institute, serves on The Council of
Fellows at the Morgan Library, and sits on the
CISAC Advisors Group. Morris E. Zukerman is the
president of M.E. Zukerman & Co. in New York
and chairman of M.E. Zukerman Investments in
London, has served on the boards of Harvard,
Phillips Academy Andover, and The Spence
School, and is an honorary fellow of King’s
College, Cambridge University.
Q: How did you learn about CISAC?
Our daughter, Sarah ’03, took part in the CISAC
honors program, and we found it remarkable
that undergraduate education would include an
interdisciplinary program on issues of inter-
national affairs. Even more remarkable was the
opportunity presented to undergraduates to
interact with scholars in many fields and to work
with mentors in positions of distinguished
government service. The inherent synergies of
this access struck us as a seminal way forward
and offered us an opportunity to witness its
inspiration on the students in the program.
Q: Why do you support CISAC?
We think it is important that the work of the
center is nonpartisan. At a time when govern-
ments in America and around the world find it
difficult to formulate credible assessments and
policies to address the problems of our time,
the university and the center gather the best
thinking to seek peaceful resolution to the
many conflicts around the globe. Diplomacy
alone without the guidance of scholars with
backgrounds in history, language, law, science,
and culture will be hard pressed to offer singular
solutions. CISAC’s work inspired the establish-
ment of The Zukerman Fellows, who will
become the next generation of scholars and
policy experts to build a more peaceful world.
photo: Karen Zukerman and CISAC’s Stephen Stedman.
cisac 9
CISAC’s John Lewis and colleagues, including CISAC’s current
co-director Siegfried Hecker, inside the control room of the
5-megawatt (electric) nuclear reactor at Yongbyon, Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea, in 2004. (DPRK) (Inset) The nuclear
facilities at Yongbyon. (Digital Globe-ISIS)

Impact
CISAC makes an impact, engaging with leaders worldwide and influencing
policy that will build a safer world.
Influencing Policy

CISAC Scholars Set the Stage for Resumed Negotiations with North Korea

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea conducted missile tests in July 2006, followed by
its first nuclear weapon test on October 9. At the end of that month, it announced it would
return to the six-party negotiations with China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United
States—stalled since September 2005—to discuss denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
Siegfried Hecker, CISAC co-director; John Lewis, director of the Project on Peace and
Cooperation in the Asian-Pacific Region at CISAC; and Robert Carlin, a CISAC visiting
scholar, were in Pyongyang on October 31, when North Korea announced its interest in
resuming the six-party talks.
And in March 2007, as DPRK vice foreign minister Kim Kye Gwan headed to New York to
meet with U.S. assistant secretary of state Christopher Hill, he requested a private, two-day
meeting with Lewis, Hecker, Carlin, and a small group of colleagues.
For North Korea, bilateral talks with the United States were key to making multilateral
talks work. As Lewis briefed U.S. officials privately and later summed up in a Washington
Post op-ed with Carlin, “Above all, [North Korea] wants, and has pursued steadily since 1991,
a long-term, strategic relationship with the United States.”
Kim told his West Coast hosts that he credited Lewis with bringing U.S. officials around
to negotiating with North Korea and was pleased that Washington had decided to engage
the DPRK directly. That decision was formalized in a six-party agreement on February 13,
and the meeting in March was the first step in implementing that agreement.
“Diplomacy is not a reward,” Lewis says. “It’s a way you get things done.”
After their DPRK visit October 31–November 4, 2006, Lewis and Hecker shared their
insights with policymakers. Hecker and Carlin then gave a public briefing in Washington,
with Jack Pritchard, a Korea expert who had been on the trip.
“We should not discount the success of their nuclear [weapon] test,” Hecker said. “However,
I believe they are still a long way from having a missile-capable nuclear design,” added the
emeritus director of Los Alamos National Laboratory. This was Hecker’s third time visiting
North Korea and meeting with the director of its main nuclear facilities.
Hecker estimated North Korea’s ability to make plutonium fuel for weapons remains
“about one bomb’s worth per year,” with their 5-megawatt (electric) nuclear reactor. A
50-MW(e) reactor with a capacity 10 times greater than the one now operating was left
unfinished under the 1994 DPRK–U.S. Agreed Framework. Hecker found out that the DPRK
is having difficulties completing the reactor and that it would be “several years before the
reactor could be completed, if at all.”
Carlin said the streets of Pyongyang were crowded with cars, trucks, and motorcycles.
“There were well-dressed people on the streets like I hadn’t seen before,” said the former
government analyst who has traveled to North Korea 26 times since the 1970s.
“We heard from them that they realize a country that cannot successfully carry on
international trade is a country that cannot develop and survive,” Carlin said.

influencing policy cisac 11

photos: (above) CISAC honors student Lauren Young (right) and fellow Stanford
student Jonny Dorsey, in Zambia, with the late Mama Katele, who inspired the
students to start a national nonprofit to fight AIDS in Africa. (FACE AIDS) (right)
Young with CISAC honors graduate Dave Ryan, now FACE AIDS’ executive director.

Dave Ryan and Lauren Young

Mobilizing Students to Fight AIDS in Africa

Dave Ryan and Lauren Young concluded their CISAC undergraduate honors theses with
policy recommendations, some of which are “already on the desks of policymakers,” according
to CISAC and FSI senior fellow Stephen Stedman, who co-taught the program.
But these two honors students are making an impact beyond their policy-oriented CISAC
work, as Ryan takes over this fall as executive director of FACE AIDS, a nonprofit organization
that Young co-founded with two Stanford classmates in 2005.
With a mission “to mobilize and inspire students to fight AIDS in Africa,” the organization
has opened more than 150 chapters at colleges and high schools nationwide and has raised
more than $750,000 to fund comprehensive health care by Partners in Health in Rwanda
to mitigate the AIDS epidemic.
Among its education and fundraising activities, FACE AIDS distributes beaded AIDS-ribbon
pins, which provide an income to the AIDS support group members in Zambia who make
them by hand. The pins raise awareness — for AIDS testing, in communities where they are
made, and for AIDS support, on U.S. campuses where they are distributed.
Young and classmates Katie Bollbach and Jonny Dorsey came up with the idea for FACE
AIDS while working in a refugee camp in Mwange, Zambia, in summer 2005. The trio took
a year off from their Stanford studies to establish the nonprofit.
Young sees social justice as a central theme in her CISAC honors research — assessing the
World Bank’s approach to helping nations rebuild after war — and her work with FACE AIDS.
Ryan, who first came to CISAC as a freshman research assistant to CISAC associate
director Lynn Eden, finds a “significant connection” between AIDS and international security,
including nuclear nonproliferation — his thesis topic. “States suffering from the poverty,
orphaning, and disorder that AIDS helps create can become attractive locations for terrorist
training camps, black-market nuclear weapons proliferation, and general violence and
instability that can spread beyond national borders,” he explained.
FACE AIDS’ new executive director says he looks forward to “expanding [the organization’s]
national presence” by adding chapters and improving its use of media.
“But it is most inspiring for me to hear the personal stories of students for whom FACE
AIDS has changed their career paths, inspired them to travel to Africa, or even just broadened
their awareness of the issue,” Ryan said. “These stories coming from across the country
are how we know we are achieving our mission.”

12 cisac influencing policy

photo: Following CISAC’s panel discussion, “Iraq: The Way Forward,” Larry Diamond, coordinator of the democracy
program at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, fielded questions from reporters.

The Way Forward in Iraq

“By any reasonable definition, Iraq is in the midst of a civil war, the scale and extent of
which is limited somewhat by the U.S. military presence,” James Fearon, a Stanford political
science professor affiliated with CISAC, told the Subcommittee on National Security,
Emerging Threats, and International Relations of the House Committee on Government
Reform in September 2006.
News media drew on Fearon’s congressional testimony, echoing his warning about the
likely failure of an attempt to divide the country’s land or resources among Sunnis, Shiites,
and Kurds. Some news organizations began to call the fighting in Iraq a civil war, citing the
research of Fearon and David Laitin, also a CISAC-affiliated political science professor.
Former defense secretary William Perry, co-director of the Preventive Defense Project at
CISAC, served as a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, formed at Congress’ request.
Headed by James A. Baker III, former secretary of state, and Lee H. Hamilton, former U.S.
representative, the group advocated “new and enhanced diplomatic and political efforts
in Iraq and the region, and a change in the primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq that will
enable the United States to begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly.”
Perry testified in January before both Senate and House armed services committees.
He reinforced the study group’s call for “a change in mission, a reinvigoration of diplomacy
in the region, a strengthening of the Iraqi government, and the beginning of troop
redeployments.”
FSI colleague Larry Diamond, who served as a senior advisor to the Coalition Provisional
Authority in Iraq, joined Perry and Fearon at the end of January for a panel discussion,
“Iraq: The Way Forward,” hosted by CISAC. At the standing-room-only forum, all three experts
argued against sending more troops to Iraq.
The U.S. presence in Iraq and its support of the Iraqi government placed the United States
in the position of siding with the Shia in the ongoing civil war, Fearon argued — a position he
called “morally dubious and not in the long-term interest of the United States.”
In the March 2007 issue of Foreign Affairs, Fearon suggested that the United States
would do better to withdraw troops from the country so that it could balance Iraq’s factions
and help effect an equitable resolution among them.
Thom Shanker, the New York Times’ national security and foreign policy correspondent,
delivering CISAC’s annual Drell Lecture, added that military officers saw their success in
Iraq as tied to wider diplomatic and political efforts in the country and the region.

influencing policy cisac 13

photo: Brian Burton, 2007 CISAC honors graduate and Firestone
Medal winner.
Brian Burton
Why the New Counterinsurgency Doctrine Isn’t the Answer
In Iraq
Brian Burton studied the U.S. military’s approach to the
war in Iraq and found its doctrine ill-matched to the task.
In his CISAC honors thesis, “Counterinsurgency
Principles and U.S. Military Effectiveness in Iraq,” Burton
found that what has been hailed in the press as a “new
counterinsurgency strategy” is not really new. The
military’s new manual echoes a mid-20th century strategy
to “clear, hold, and build”— to defeat the insurgents,
secure territory, and rebuild infrastructure to support a
functioning society.
The fact that the doctrine is outdated is almost beside
the point, though, according to Burton’s research. It
doesn’t begin to address the situation in Iraq, which bears
little resemblance to insurgencies of past decades.
The doctrine “doesn’t address the sectarian violence,
the political violence, the international terrorism, or
criminality” present in Iraq, Burton said.
Nor is the U.S. military equipped, configured, or trained
to perform the kind of nation-building mission that Iraq
would require, he found, as he surveyed military sources
and interviewed officers who were experts on the doctrine
and had served in Iraq.
“There’s a real mismatch between the type of campaign
the U.S. is trying to wage and the means it used to carry
it out,” he said. “What’s needed is an integrated nation-
building doctrine that emphasizes civilian, not just
military, capabilities,” he concluded.
Now pursuing a master’s degree in security studies at
Georgetown University, Burton plans to elaborate on his
thesis in a book, in collaboration with another scholar.
14 cisac
Pierre R. Schwob
Supporting Insight and Outreach
Pierre R. Schwob was born in America and
raised in Geneva, Switzerland. He has taught
computer science, licensed his intellectual
properties in radio data and internet technolo-
gies, and written books on chess, calculators,
and history. Schwob currently directs
ClassicalArchives.com, the largest classical
music site on the internet.
Q: What international/national security issues
most concern you?
The wayward and costly invasion of Iraq at the
expense of a stable Afghanistan; the intentional
and grotesque rejection of alternative planning
for post Iraq-victory; the unwillingness to talk to
our adversaries; the abandonment of the Agreed
Framework with North Korea; the misrepresen-
tation or censorship of scientific data; and the
loss of America’s prestige abroad are some of
the examples of what I find lamentable.
Q: What provides you with hope?
The American genius is expressed partly by its
unique ability to regenerate, to reinvent itself.
We will need the wisdom and intelligence such
as that demonstrated so brilliantly by the people
at CISAC and the Kavli Institute for Particle
Astrophysics and Cosmology, which I also sup-
port at Stanford, to redress our course and to
avert potentially catastrophic disasters that may
threaten our societies and civilization.
Q: Why do you support CISAC?
Nothing has made me more optimistic than
meeting the wonderfully talented and thoughtful
people at CISAC. One cannot be but humbled
when listening to Bill Perry, Scott Sagan, or
any of their distinguished colleagues. I feel
particularly fortunate to know them and to have
been able to support some of their endeavors—
particularly with regard to their outreach efforts.
influencing policy
 photos: (left) David Patel, 2006–2007 CISAC fellow, studied Islam and politics
during an eight-month stay in Iraq. (above) Patel and an Iraqi friend, at the
grave of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadiq al-Sadr (Muqtada
al-Sadr’s father) in Najaf.

David Patel
Illuminating the Role of Islam in Iraq’s New Political Culture

To study Islamic and political institutions in the Middle East, David Patel read deeply in his
subject and became fluent in Arabic. He also immersed himself in Iraqi culture by living in
Basra during “the most perilous moments of Iraq’s history,” as Patel’s dissertation advisor,
David Laitin, points out.
“He has been an invaluable national resource in sharing his findings on and his interpre-
tations of events taking place in Iraq today,” said Laitin, a Stanford political science professor
affiliated with CISAC and the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.
Patel made time for interviews with reporters, such as National Public Radio’s Michele
Kelleman, and to serve as a consultant to the U.S. government while completing his PhD
and conducting research as a fellow at CDDRL and CISAC.
He analyzed the relationship of religious and political institutions, which Laitin noted is
“a central theme in political science today and also a fundamental concern in policy.”
“I realized that for better of worse, Iraq was going to be the defining experience in the
Middle East for some time,” said Patel, who is now an assistant professor of government
at Cornell University.
A visit with a friend doing relief work in Iraq in September 2003 provided him with a unique
research opportunity. Iraq served as a “natural experiment” for studying Islam’s role in
political action, Patel explained, as “the state disappeared but Islamic institutions stayed”
after the defeat of Saddam Hussein’s government.
“Services collapsed everywhere at the same time,” he said. His visit stretched to an
eight-month stay in Basra during the Coalition Provisional Authority era. He observed
the way Islamic clerics — specifically the hierarchically organized Shia — inspired civic
participation that didn’t exist in Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s rule. Patel found Shiite clerics’
Friday sermons gave Iraqi citizens the wherewithal to organize and resume services, such
as trash collecting.
Patel traveled around Iraq freely by car, and his facility with Arabic enabled him to meet
and befriend locals. That changed in April 2004, with the first uprising of Shia forces loyal
to Muqtada al-Sadr. Increased violence in the country forced Patel to leave.
“Under extremely challenging conditions, [Patel] has made himself into one of a very
small number of experts on Iraqi politics,” said Professor James Fearon, a CISAC and CDDRL
political scientist with whom Patel studied.

influencing policy cisac 15

Katherine Schlosser receives her honors certificate from CISAC senior
fellow Stephen Stedman. CISAC senior research scholar Paul
Stockton, who led the 2006–2007 program with Stedman, looks on.

Insight & Impact

CISAC extends its insight and impact by training the next generation of
security specialists who will carry forward this important work.
Training the Next Generation

Katherine Schlosser
How an RNA Test Could Help Save Lives In a Bioterror Attack

In her CISAC honors thesis, biology major Katherine Schlosser found that gene expression
analysis, a technique advanced in the last 10 years, could form the basis of an early warning
system for bioterror attacks or disease outbreaks.
Experts agree that early detection of a disease is the key to mounting an effective public
response to an outbreak, whether the cause is deliberate, as in a terrorist attack, or natural,
as in a flu epidemic.
“Traditional clinical diagnosis,” based on a patient’s symptoms, “will never be able to
detect an attack or outbreak faster than the time it takes for the first patient to become ill
and visit health-care facilities,” Schlosser explained. “Gene expression has the potential to
allow diagnosis during the presymptomatic period,” before people know they are sick.
Rather than testing blood for specific pathogens, doctors could test a few drops of blood
for a variety of diseases at once by examining cells’ gene expression, the process that turns
RNA information into proteins. Scientists have begun to note patterns in gene expression
that signal the presence of cancer or infectious diseases such as malaria or smallpox.
“It is important to start envisioning a system for implementing this technology as soon
as possible,” Schlosser said. She suggested the RNA test be used for routine screening of
blood samples collected during medical examinations, to provide early warning of dangerous
infectious diseases.
“As researchers are compiling a comprehensive library of patterns,” policymakers can
prepare a routine screening system to implement as soon as the technology is ready,
she noted.
Schlosser’s thesis advisor, Dean Wilkening, who directs CISAC’s science program, said
her research “provides a clear articulation of the scientific merits and practical benefits
associated with this technology.” He added that it “is suitable for policymakers interested
in the dual questions of detecting emerging infectious diseases and bioterrorism in a
timely manner.”
“I hope that my research will inspire more funding for the work with DNA microarrays
that is ongoing,” Schlosser said. “I have always thought that it was important for scientists
to be involved in policy about scientific issues. Bioterrorism seemed like a place where I
could start doing that.”
Now enrolled in a joint MD -master’s of public health program at Case Western
Reserve University, Schlosser is interested in studying infectious diseases and working
in global health.

training the next generation cisac 17

photo: (left to right) William Perry, former CISAC co-director, with current co-directors Scott Sagan and Siegfried Hecker.

Siegfried Hecker
CISAC’s New Co-Director

For 11 years, Siegfried Hecker was responsible for certifying annually the safety and security
of three-quarters of the nation’s nuclear arsenal, as director of Los Alamos National Laboratory
from 1986 through 1997. He also directed a broad spectrum of defense and civilian research.
Now Los Alamos laboratory’s emeritus director is fulfilling a long-held dream of being
a professor. In January 2007 he became CISAC’s fifth science co-director, a senior fellow
at FSI, and professor (research) in the Stanford School of Engineering’s Department of
Management Science and Engineering.
During his tenure as director at Los Alamos, Hecker helped Russia and other states of
the former Soviet Union improve the security of their nuclear materials and nuclear facilities
by building lab-to-lab relations with his counterparts across the former Soviet Union.
He continues that work today and has made nearly 40 trips to Russia. He has also met
with nuclear experts in other nations, including the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
(DPRK), Pakistan, and India.
“I seek collaboration with nuclear scientists around the world to reduce nuclear
dangers — particularly those associated with lack of security of nuclear materials,” Hecker
said. “My aim is to help countries secure their nuclear materials and keep them out of
the wrong hands.”
On visits to North Korea with CISAC colleague John Lewis, Hecker met with the director
of the DPRK nuclear program and toured the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon.
In fall quarters of 2005 and 2006, as a visiting professor at CISAC, he co-taught Technology
and National Security with CISAC colleague and former defense secretary William Perry.
Last spring he taught Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and Energy, a sophomore seminar. Both
courses are offered by the Department of Management Science and Engineering.
Hecker had an offer to teach at the University of Illinois after earning his PhD in metallurgy
at Case Western Reserve University. But a postdoctoral position at Los Alamos led him to
pursue a research career outside academe.
By his account, he was drawn to Los Alamos by its geography as well as by the professional
opportunity it offered.
“I grew up in Austria on skis,” Hecker said, “and came to the U.S. at age 13—to Cleveland,
Ohio,” where there was hardly a hill in sight. Los Alamos lay at 7,300-feet elevation, with its
own ski area, and close to Sante Fe and the famed Taos ski resort.

18 cisac training the next generation

 “My aim is to help countries secure their nuclear materials and keep them out of the
wrong hands.”
Siegfried Hecker, CISAC co-director

Hecker took a summer research assistant position at Los Alamos and honeymooned with
his wife, Nina, in the mountains. After postdoctoral research at Los Alamos, he worked for
a time at General Motors Research Laboratories, where he studied steel and aluminum,
before returning to Los Alamos as a technical staff member.
There he developed an infectious enthusiasm for his new subject — plutonium, the most
complex element in the periodic table.
“I tried to understand why plutonium defies most conventional metallurgical and physics
wisdom. The nuclear properties and role of plutonium in nuclear weapons came much
later,” he said.
Selected to head the laboratory, he looked to Norris Bradbury, the laboratory’s second
director, for an understanding of the institution’s role. Hecker recalls Bradbury saying,
“‘We don’t build bombs to kill people. We build them to buy time for political leaders to
learn to resolve their differences.’”
Hecker is still guided by that vision, he says, as he advises administration officials and
members of Congress and trains a new generation of technical and political experts on
nuclear and international security issues.

Michael Sulmeyer,
2002 CISAC Honors Graduate
How I Came to CISAC

“I remember stumbling in late to a lecture in Cubberly auditorium. The course was the old PS 138,
International Security in a Changing World. I hadn’t a clue about international security, but I was blown
away listening to Dean Wilkening describe the three different layers of a national missile defense
system. I didn’t know you could study something like that. This was a real treat. I went on to take as
many courses as I could from CISAC-affiliated faculty and was first in line to sign up for the new
CISAC undergraduate honors program.”
Sulmeyer is now a PhD candidate in politics and international relations at Oxford University. Prior
to graduate school, he spent a year working at the Pentagon and was detailed for several months to
the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.

training the next generation cisac 19

photo: CISAC predoctoral fellow Alisa Carrigan found that nations with successful nuclear operations did not recruit
experts from overseas, as current nonproliferation policies and programs assume.

Alisa Carrigan
Using Science and Social Science to Solve Security Problems

From its founding by physicist Sidney Drell and political scientist John Lewis, CISAC has
fostered collaboration among scientists and social scientists to tackle security problems
that can’t be solved with the tools of a single academic field.
Alisa Carrigan is one researcher who embodies that interdisciplinary spirit.
Carrigan, a 2006–2007 CISAC predoctoral fellow, earned her PhD in war studies from
King’s College in London. Her dissertation, The Best Knowledge Money Can Buy, examines
how nations build nuclear weapons expertise and offers recommendations for preventing
the spread of this expertise to illicit programs.
Nonproliferation experts “seem to think that, for any number of reasons, proliferating
states will try to recruit foreign scientists and engineers to work on their nuclear
programs,” Carrigan said. “And we have put in place a number of policies and programs
that try to stop the recruitment of un- or under-employed scientists, like those in the
former Soviet Union.”
To the contrary, Carrigan found that nations did not build nuclear expertise by recruiting
foreigners. Instead, they sent their own people abroad for technical training.
After the Cold War, the U.S. and international communities “were so busy looking for
Russians being recruited away from Russia that we didn’t pay any attention to who was
coming into Russia and for what purpose,” she said.
She suggests tightening export controls to include expertise as well as materials for
making nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, to ensure that “technical assistance isn’t
being diverted into covert programs.”
As a government and psychology major in college, Carrigan said she began “interpreting”
technical matters during a summer internship with the public affairs office at Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory. “I had to make science understandable to the public,” she
said. “I’d go to the scientists and say, ‘Explain this to me,’ and sometimes I’d go back
again,” she said, until she understood.
Her doctoral research entailed interviews with nuclear weapons designers, uranium
enrichment specialists, metallurgists, and other technical experts — among them some of
the nation’s nuclear luminaries who participated in the Manhattan Project.
“All of the experts I talked to were very open with me, very willing to tell me what they
knew or what they thought,” she said.

20 cisac training the next generation

“After the Cold War, we were so busy looking for Russians
being recruited away from Russia that we didn’t pay
any attention to who was coming into Russia and for
what purpose.”
Alisa Carrigan, CISAC predoctoral fellow
They told Carrigan how they gained
expertise specific to nuclear programs,
providing details often not covered
in histories.
A former high-level scientist in Saddam
Hussein’s regime shared “practically
every detail of the training and experimen-
tation that went on in Iraq’s centrifuge
program — where they sent people and
when, what those people brought back,
and how they were integrated into the
program,” she said.
Carrigan identified a clear pattern
among states with successful nuclear
programs. Those states sent scientists
abroad for training as needed, then
brought them home to apply their skills
and to help train colleagues.
In a December 2006 Capitol Hill
briefing, Carrigan advised congressional
staff and other policy experts to address
technical assistance — in addition to
transfer of materials and weapons — in
nonproliferation efforts.
The International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) should be given access
to “scrutinize more closely a state’s
nuclear scientists and engineers, to see
what they’re working on and with whom,”
she added.
With this information, Carrigan said,
“the IAEA could piece together a much
better picture of what a state is or is
not doing.”
training the next generation
Keith Coleman
Supporting Life-Changing Training
Keith Coleman (BS Computer Science ’02, MS
’04), member of the CISAC Honors Class of
2001–2002, received Stanford’s Firestone Medal,
which recognizes the most distinguished
undergraduate research produced at Stanford
each year. Coleman served on Stanford
University’s Board of Trustees Committee on
Academic Policy, Planning and Management
and co-invented a driving directions service that
gives step-by-step directions over the telephone.
(patent pending). As a product manager at
Google he runs Gmail, Google’s e-mail service,
and, with assistance from CISAC and William
J. Perry, teaches MS&E 91, a Stanford course
on U.S. national security and the internet that
he and two other computer science students
created in 2004.
Q: What brought you to CISAC?
As an engineer at Stanford, it’s tough to study
anything but engineering — there are a lot
of requirements and only so much time. But
after spending a quarter studying policy in
Washington, I wanted to dive deeper. The CISAC
Honors Program was the perfect opportunity.
The program was light years ahead of others at
the university in offering hands-on time and
attention, access to experts, and exposure to
real policymakers and researchers.
Q: Why did you choose to support CISAC?
CISAC has been life-changing. Through the
honors program, I spent my senior year
researching security policy with some of the
world’s top experts, and I continue to educate
new generations of Stanford students on inter-
disciplinary computer security.
CISAC is also visionary. It was one of the first
departments at Stanford to realize the value of
interdisciplinary work. Scott Sagan and Bill Perry
have a vision for international security educa-
tion and dedicate their time and energy to realize
it. I want to support visionaries like them.
cisac 21
CISAC’s 2007 class of undergraduate honors students. Paul Stockton (left) and Stephen Stedman (right) led the program; Noah
Richmond (back row, right), CISAC’s Zukerman Fellow, served as teaching assistant; and Michelle Gellner (back row, second from
left) coordinates the program.

CISAC congratulates the 2006 graduates of its undergraduate honors

program in international security studies. Professor Stephen Stedman and
senior research scholar Paul Stockton co-directed the 2006–2007 program.

“In every potential career you have expressed a desire to pursue, from medicine
to the financial sector and beyond, we need your perspectives and research
contributions, to deal with emerging threats to global security.”
Paul Stockton, addressing CISAC’s 2007 undergraduate honors class
Honors Graduates
Brian Burton, political science
Thesis: Counterinsurgency Principles and U.S.
Military Effectiveness in Iraq
Firestone Medal Winner
Destination: Georgetown University, to pursue a
master’s degree in security studies
Aspiration: “A high-level Cabinet or NSC position to
cap a long career of public service in foreign policy.”
Martine Cicconi, political science
Thesis: Weighing the Costs of Aggression and
Restraint: Explaining Variations in India’s Response
to Terrorism
Destination: Stanford University Law School
Will Frankenstein, mathematics
Thesis: Chinese Energy Security and International
Security: A Case Study Analysis
Destination: The Institute for Defense Analyses
in Alexandria, Va., for a summer internship
Kunal Gullapalli, management science and
engineering
Thesis: Understanding Water Rationality: A Game-
Theoretic Analysis of Cooperation and Conflict Over
Scarce Water
Destination: The Investment Banking Division at
Morgan Stanley in Los Angeles
Sherri Hansen, political science
Thesis: Explaining the Use of Child Soldiers
William J. Perry Award Winner
Destination: Oxford University, England, to pursue
master’s degree in development studies
Andy Leifer, physics and political science
Thesis: International Scientific Engagement for
Mitigating Emerging Nuclear Security Threats
Destination: Harvard University, to pursue a PhD
in biophysics
James Madsen, political science
Thesis: Filling the Gap: The Rise of Military
Contractors in the Modern Military
Destination: World travel; then San Francisco to
open a bar
Most valuable thing learned: “The importance of
a good research design.”
Nico Martinez, political science
Thesis: Protracted Civil War and Failed Peace
Negotiations in Colombia
Destination: Washington, D.C., to serve as a staff
member for Senator Harry Reid
honors graduates
Seepan V. Parseghian, political science and
Russian/Eurasian studies
Thesis: The Survival of Unrecognized States in the
Hobbesian Jungle
Destination: Undecided at graduation
Greatest influence: “My thesis advisor, Professor
Fearon, for constantly challenging me and believing
in my work.”
Dave Ryan, international relations
Thesis: Security Guarantees in Nonproliferation
Negotiations
Destination: Stanford University, to serve as
executive director of FACE AIDS
Katherine Schlosser, biology
Thesis: Gene Expression Profiling: A New Warning
System for Bioterrorism
Destination: Case Western Reserve University in
Cleveland, to pursue a joint medical degree and
master’s in public health
Aspiration: “To keep conducting innovative
research and to eventually rejoin the international
security studies community in some capacity.”
Nigar Shaikh, human biology and political science
Thesis: No Longer Just the “Spoils of War”: Rape
as an Instrument of Military Policy
Destination: New York, to be a litigation legal
assistant at Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP
Christine Su, history and political science
Thesis: British Counterterrorism Legislation Since
2000: Parlimentary and Government Evaluations of
Enhanced Security
Destination: Stanford University, to finish her
undergraduate degree; Su completed the honors
program as a junior
Aspiration: “To publish parts of my thesis in
undergrad research journals.”
Lauren Young, international relations
Thesis: Peacebuilding Without Politics: The World
Bank and Post-Conflict Reconstruction
Destination: Stanford University, to finish her
undergraduate degree; Young completed the
honors program as a junior
Aspiration: “To make peacebuilding missions
more effective and efficient so more countries
start down a path of peace and development
instead of renewed conflict.”
cisac 23
Former Defense Secretary William Perry (right), co-director
of the Preventive Defense Project at CISAC, served on
the Iraq Study Group, led by former Secretary of State
James Baker III (center) and former U.S. Representative
Lee Hamilton. Former U.S. Senator Alan Simpson (left)
was also a group member. (Jim Young/Reuters)

CISAC maintains high academic standards of independent research by

subjecting its work to peer-review in scholarly and professional publications.
This rigorous policy-relevant research serves as the basis of CISAC’s policy
influence, as the center’s scholars engage in public debate through op-eds,
congressional testimony, and public lectures, in addition to meetings
with policymakers. Here are selected examples of our scholarly and public
writings and talks.
Selected Publications and Presentations
Books and Reports
James A. Baker III, Lee H. Hamilton, Robert M.
Gates, Vernon E. Jordan, Jr., Edwin Meese III,
Sandra Day O’Connor, Leon E. Panetta, William
J. Perry, Charles S. Robb, and Alan K. Simpson.
The Iraq Study Group Report, United States
Institute of Peace, December 6, 2006.
Ashton B. Carter, Michael May, and William J. Perry.
The Day After: Action in the 24 Hours Following a
Nuclear Blast, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard
and Stanford universities, May 31, 2007.
Combating Terrorism Center. Al-Qa’ida’s
(mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa, Combating
Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, West
Point, May 4, 2007. (Jacob N. Shapiro contributed.)
Stephen E. Flynn. The Edge of Disaster: Rebuilding
a Resilient Nation, Council on Foreign Relations
and Random House, 2007.
Siegfried S. Hecker. Report on North Korean
Nuclear Program, CISAC, November 15, 2006.
Paul Kapur. Dangerous Deterrent: Nuclear
Weapons Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia,
Stanford University Press, 2007.
Michael Kenney. From Pablo to Osama: Trafficking
and Terrorist Networks, Government Bureaucracies,
and Competitive Adaptation, Penn State University
Press, 2007.
Charles Perrow. The Next Catastrophe: Reducing
Our Vulnerabilities to Natural, Industrial, and
Terrorist Disasters, Princeton University Press, 2007.
Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall. Alliances and
American Security, Strategic Studies Institute of
the U.S. Army War College, November 1, 2006.
Jeremy M. Weinstein. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of
Insurgent Violence (Cambridge Studies in Comparative
Politics), Cambridge University Press, 2006.
Congressional Testimony and Public Lectures
Herbert Abrams. “The Fourth Dimension of
Biomedicine,” Commencement Address, Stanford
University School of Medicine, June 16, 2007.
selected publications and presentations
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. “Restoring Habeas
Corpus: Protecting American Values and the Great
Writ,” U.S. Senate, Committee on the Judiciary,
May 22, 2007.
James Fearon. “Iraq: Democracy or Civil War?”
U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on
Government Reform, Subcommittee on National
Security, Emerging Threats, and International
Relations, September 15, 2006.
William J. Perry. “Alternative Perspectives on
Iraq,” U.S. House of Representatives, Armed
Services Committee, January 17, 2007.
William J. Perry. “The Situation in Iraq and the
Administration’s Strategy,” U.S. Senate, Armed
Services Committee, January 25, 2007.
Paul Stockton. “Five- and Ten-Year Homeland
Security Goals,” U.S. House of Representatives,
Appropriations Committee, Homeland Security
Subcommittee, January 30, 2007.
Op-Eds and Commentary
Robert Carlin and John W. Lewis. “What North Korea
Really Wants,” Washington Post, January 27, 2007.
Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe. “Why Iraq Teaches
Nothing About Intervention in Darfur,” San Jose
Mercury News, November 6, 2006.
Albert Chang and Robert C. Bordone. “Real
Superpowers Negotiate,” washingtonpost.com,
October 26, 2006. (Chang was a 2006 CISAC
honors graduate.)
David Laitin. “Uncle Sam’s Lonely Predicament,”
Newsday, December 8, 2006.
Michael M. May. “The Null Hypothesis in Iraq,”
Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007.
William J. Perry. “In Search of a North Korea
Policy,” Washington Post, October 11, 2006.
William J. Perry, Michael M. May, and Ashton
Carter. “After the Bomb,” New York Times, June
12, 2007.
Pavel Podvig. “Behind Russia and Iran’s Nuclear
Reactor Dispute,” The Bulletin Online, March 26,
2007.
cisac 25
Pavel Podvig. “Boris Yeltsin’s Arms Control Legacy,”
The Bulletin Online, April 30, 2007.
Pavel Podvig. “Life after START,” The Bulletin
Online, January 9, 2007.
Pavel Podvig. “Missile Defense: The Russian
Reaction,” The Bulletin Online, February 26, 2007.
Pavel Podvig. “A U.S.-Russian Missile Defense
Cooperative?” The Bulletin Online, April 24, 2007.
Lawrence M. Wein. “Biological and Chemical
Safety Nets,” Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2007.
Lawrence M. Wein. “Face Facts,” New York Times,
October 25, 2006.
Leonard Weiss and Larry Diamond. “Congress
Must Stop an Attack on Iran,” Los Angeles Times,
February 5, 2007.
Professional and Scholarly Articles and Chapters
Michael P. Atkinson, Zheng Su, Nina Alphey,
Luke S. Alphey, Paul G. Coleman, and Lawrence
M. Wein. “Analyzing the Control of Mosquito-
Borne Diseases by a Dominant Lethal Genetic
System,” Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 104.22 (29 May 2007): 9540-9545.
Chaim Braun. “The Nuclear Energy Market and
the Nonproliferation Regime,” Nonproliferation
Review 13.3 (November 2006).
George Bunn. “Enforcing International Standards:
Protecting Nuclear Materials From Terrorists
Post-9/11,” Arms Control Today 37.1 (January–
February 2007).
George Bunn. “Nuclear Safeguards: How Far
Can Inspectors Go?” IAEA Bulletin 48.1 (March
2007): 49-53.
26 cisac selected publications and presentations
George Bunn. “U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation
Agreement: Can President Bush Refuse to Follow
the Expressed Will of Congress Concerning
Nuclear Exports to India?” Lawyer’s Alliance for
World Security (17 January 2007).
Sheena Chestnut. “Illicit Activity and Proliferation:
North Korean Smuggling Networks,” International
Security 32.1 (Summer 2007): 80-111. (Based on
Chestnut’s 2005 CISAC honors thesis.)
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. “Auditing Executive
Discretion,” Notre Dame Law Review 82.1
(November 2006): 227-312.
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar. “Running Aground:
The Hidden Environmental and Regulatory
Implications of Homeland Security,” American
Constitution Society for Law and Policy (May 2007).
Lynn Eden. “Response to My Critics,” Review
Symposium on Whole World on Fire, with comments
by Renee Anspach, Hugh Gusterson, Thomas
P. Hughes, Social Studies of Science 36.4 (August
2006): 628-656.
Lynn Eden. “‘Why?’ Charles Tilly’s Cabinet of
Wonders,” Symposium on Tilly’s Why? Qualitative
Sociology 29.4 (December 2006): 551-555.
James Fearon. “Iraq’s Civil War,” Foreign Affairs
86.2 (March–April 2007): 2-15.
M. Steven Fish and Matthew Kroenig. “Diversity,
Conflict, and Democracy: Some Evidence from
Eurasia and East Europe,” Democratization 13.5
(December 2006): 828-842.
Siegfried S. Hecker. “Toward a Comprehensive
Safeguards System: Keeping Fissile Materials
Out of Terrorists’ Hands,” Annals of the American
Academy of Political and Social Science 607
(September 2006): 121-132.
Siegfried S. Hecker and William Liou. “Dangerous Jacob N. Shapiro and Rudolph P. Darken.
Dealings: North Korea’s Nuclear Capabilities and “Homeland Security: A New Strategic Paradigm?”
the Threat of Export to Iran,” Arms Control Today in Strategy in the Contemporary World, 2nd ed.,
37.2 (March 2007): 6-11. John Baylis, James J. Wirtz, Colin S. Gray, and Eliot
Cohen, eds. (Oxford University Press, 2006).
David Holloway. “Jockeying for Position in the
Postwar World: Soviet Entry into the War with Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall. “The Case for Alliances,”
Japan in August 1945,” in The End of the Pacific Joint Force Quarterly 43.4 (October 2006): 54-59.
War: Reappraisals, Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, ed.
Lisa Stampnitzky. “How Does ‘Culture’ Become
(Stanford University, 2007).
‘Capital’? Cultural and Institutional Struggles Over
Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein. ‘Character and Personality’ at Harvard,” Sociological
“Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil Perspectives 49.4 (December 2006): 461-481.
War,” American Political Science Review 100.3
Steven Weber, Naazneen Barma, Matthew
(August 2006): 429-447.
Kroenig, and Ely Ratner. “How Globalization Went
Michael M. May, Jay Davis, and Raymond Jeanloz. Bad,” Foreign Policy (January/February 2007).
“Preparing for the Worst,” Nature 443.7114
Lawrence M. Wein. “Preventing Catastrophic
(25 October 2006): 907-908.
Chemical Attacks,” Issues in Science & Technology
Michael Miller. “Nuclear Attribution as Deterrence,” 23 (Fall 2006): 31-33.
Nonproliferation Review 14.1 (March 2007).
Lawrence M. Wein, A.H. Wilkins, Manas Baveja,
(Based on Miller’s 2006 CISAC honors thesis.)
and Stephen E. Flynn. “Preventing the Importation
Pavel Podvig. “Reducing the Risk of an Accidental of Illicit Nuclear Materials in Shipping Containers,”
Launch,” Science and Global Security 14.2-3 Risk Analysis 26.5 (October 2006): 1377-1393.
(September–December 2006): 75-115.
Jeremy M. Weinstein. “Africa’s Revolutionary
Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz. “A Nuclear Deficit,” Foreign Policy (July/August 2007).
Iran: Promoting Stability or Courting Disaster?”
Yunhua Zou. “Preventing Nuclear Terrorism:
Journal of International Affairs (Spring/Summer
A View from China,” Nonproliferation Review 13.2
2007).
(July 2006). (Based on Zou’s research as a
Sonja Schmid. “Nuclear Renaissance in the Age 2004–2005 CISAC visiting scholar.)
of Global Warming,” Bridges 12 (December 2006).
Jacob N. Shapiro. “Strictly Confidential,” Foreign
Policy (July/August 2007).
Jacob N. Shapiro. “Terrorist Organizations’
Vulnerabilities and Inefficiencies: A Rational
Choice Perspective,” in Terrorism Financing and
State Responses: A Comparative Perspective,
Harold Trinkunas and Jeanne K. Giraldo, eds.
(Stanford University Press, 2007).

selected publications and presentations cisac 27

CISAC’s researchers, staff, and students on the steps of Stanford University’s Encina Hall, CISAC’s home.

“CISAC is a truly challenging and engaging intellectual community. I feel as

though I have received something of a crash course in political science and
security studies, with the faculty and other fellows always willing to engage
my questions. Being at CISAC has also been invaluable to my research in
practical ways, aiding in making contacts with members of the terrorism
studies community and other homeland security researchers.”
Lisa Stampnitzky, CISAC predoctoral fellow
CISAC People

CISAC Directors Kenneth Schultz Philip Roessler

Siegfried S. Hecker, Co-Director John Shalikashvili Jacob N. Shapiro
Scott D. Sagan, Co-Director Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall Lisa Stampnitzky
Lynn Eden, Associate Director Rebecca Slayton
for Research James J. Spilker, Jr. Zukerman Fellow
Elizabeth A. Gardner, Associate Stephen J. Stedman Noah Richmond
Director for Administration Paul Stockton
and External Affairs John H. Tilelli Staff
Lawrence M. Wein Evelyn Castaneda
Executive Committee Allen S. Weiner Kate Chadwick
William J. Perry, Chair Jeremy M. Weinstein Sharan L. Daniel
Kenneth Arrow Dean Wilkening Leah Feliz
John H. Barton Xue Litai Kimberly Fuhrman
Coit D. Blacker (ex officio) Elizabeth A. Gardner
Edward A. Feigenbaum Individual Affiliates Michelle Gellner
Siegfried S. Hecker (ex officio) Christopher F. Chyba A. Nancy Gonzalez
Joshua Lederberg Keith Coleman Deborah Gordon
Michael A. McFaul Gilbert Decker Tracy Hill
Norman M. Naimark David Elliott Carole Hyde
M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell Lewis Franklin Justin Liszanckie
Lee D. Ross David Hafemeister Rupal Mehta
Scott D. Sagan (ex officio) Ron Hassner Jenny Pong
Lucy Shapiro Alla Kassianova Jennifer Severin
James L. Sweeney L. David Montague Lisa Sickorez
Richard Rhodes Myrna Soper
Faculty and Research Staff Roger Speed Kimberly Sulpizi
Herbert L. Abrams Lorraine Theodorakakis
David M. Bernstein Visiting Scholars Nora M. Sweeny
Coit D. Blacker Robert Carlin Josh Weddle
George Bunn Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe
Wesley Clark Nina Hachigian
Martha Crenshaw Macartan Humphreys
Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar Koichi Nishitani
Lynn Eden Charles Perrow
James D. Fearon
Stephen E. Flynn Science Fellows
David J. Holloway Chaim Braun
Bruce Jones Jungmin Kang
David Laitin Sonja Schmid
Gail W. Lapidus Leonard Weiss
Joshua Lederberg Bekhzod Yuldashev
John W. Lewis
Michael M. May Predoctoral/Postdoctoral
Michael A. McFaul Fellows
William J. Perry Alisa Carrigan
Pavel Podvig Laura K. Donohue
Joseph Prueher Matthew Kroenig
Scott D. Sagan David Patel

cisac people cisac 29

 Grateful Thanks to
Our Generous Supporters

Philanthropic Leadership
The generosity of our donors enabled CISAC scholars to address the critical security issues of our time.

Lifetime Gifts and Pledges
CISAC gratefully acknowledges these
donors for their generous support of
gifts and pledges totaling $100,000
or more since the center’s founding:*
Anonymous (2)
Michael and Barbara Berberian
Daniel Case
William Edwards
Jamie and Priscilla Halper
Benjamin Hewlitt
Reuben and Ingrid Hills
Franklin P. Johnson
Joseph Kampf
Marjorie Kiewit
Jeong Kim
Melvin and Joan Lane
Stephen M. Lefkowitz
William J. Perry
Pierre R. Schwob
Richard Trutanic
J. Fred Weintz
Albert and Cicely Wheelon
Anne E. and John C. Whitehead
Karen D. and M.E. Zukerman
Donors 2006–2007
CISAC gratefully acknowledges the
following individuals, foundations, and
corporations for their generous support
during the 2006–2007 fiscal year:*
Anonymous (2)
Minoru Sam and Anna Araki
Anne R. and Gregory M. Avis
David and Anne Bernstein
David Bezanson
Peter and Helen Bing
Mark Chandler and Christina Kenrick
Keith Coleman
Simone and Tench Coxe
Richard C. DeGolia
Karen Edwards
David and Arline Elliott
Lewis and Nancy Franklin
Robert C. and Mary Layne Gregg
Jamie and Priscilla Halper
Gary and Helen Howard Harmon
William N. Harris
John Harvey and Sara Mendelson
Christine Hemrick
Larry and Amber Henninger
Benjamin Hewlett (Flora Family
Foundation)
Frederick Iseman
Kenneth I. Juster
Niloo Farhad and Soroush Kaboli
Abdo George and Sally Kadifa
Andrew Kassoy and Kamy Wicoff
Herant and Stina Katchadourian
David Keller
Loren and Anne Kieve
Marjorie Kiewit
Daniel Kliman
J. Burke Knapp
Andrea and Paul Koontz
Melvin and Joan Lane
Nicole Lederer and Larry Orr
William Levi
Doug and Virginia Levick
Gilman Louie and Amy Chan
Meena Mallipeddi
Joseph and Elizabeth Mandato
Laird McCulloch
Jonathan Medalia
Michael and Davida Rabbino
Dr. William J. and Joan P. Reckmeyer
Richard and Ginger Rhodes
Jesse and Mindy Rogers
Scott D. Sagan and Sujitpan Lamsam
(John and Margaret Sagan
Foundation)
Yoav Schlesinger
Pierre R. Schwob
David Seidenwurm and Page Robbins
Anthony Stayner and Elizabeth Cross
James and Emily Thurber
Tom and Rosemary Tisch
Jim and Carol Toney
Arthur Trueger
Patricia and James White
Phyllis Willits
Francisco Wong-Diaz, PhD, Esq.
Kathryn Zoglin
Karen D. and M.E. Zukerman
Corporations and Laboratories
The Boeing Company
Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Sandia National Laboratories
Sun Microsystems
Foundations
Carnegie Corporation of New York
Compton Foundation/Danforth Fund
The William and Flora Hewlett
Foundation
The Henry Luce Foundation
The John D. and Catherine T.
MacArthur Foundation
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway
The National Science Foundation
Naval Postgraduate School
Nuclear Threat Initiative
Ploughshares Fund
Smith Richardson Foundation
The United Nations Foundation

Volunteer Leadership
Members of the CISAC Advisory Group dedicate their time and considerable talents to the center’s efforts
to build a safer world. They offer diverse experiences, thoughtful perspective, and wide-ranging expertise as
Design: AKAcreativegroup.com

well as providing generous philanthropic support to the center.

Anne Avis Benjamin Hewlett Jesse Rogers

David Bernstein Laurene Powell Jobs Fred Weintz
Mark Chandler David Keller Karen D. Zukerman
Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe Gilman Louie
Jamie Halper S. Atiq Raza

*Every effort has been made to provide an accurate listing of our donors. In the event of an inadvertent error or omission,
please contact A. Nancy Gonzalez at 650-724-8055 or anancyg@stanford.edu.

30 cisac donors
 Fiscal Year 2005–2006

Revenue *
%
Grants and contracts 42.5%
Endowment payout 24.2%
Gifts 22.6%
University general funds 5.7%
Affiliate income 3.5%
University one-time support 1.5%

Total: $3,967,919 100.0%

Expenses
%
Faculty, research staff, and visiting scholars 25.0%
Fellowships, students 18.1%
Administrative staff 17.5%
Benefits 11.8%
Conferences, seminars, and travel 14.5%
Indirect costs 8.6%
Expendables and services 2.8%
Computing and telecommunications 1.7%

Total: $4,267,422 100.0%

*Because grant and contract sponsors often provide funding for projects that span more than a fiscal year, revenue in a
given year may appear to exceed or fall short of expenditures.
note: 2005–2006 figures were the most recent ones available at the time this Overview went to press.

photo: (back cover) CISAC science fellow Sonja Schmid asks a question at a CISAC seminar, as CISAC
predoctoral fellow Lisa Stampnitzky and visiting scholar Koichi Nishitani listen.
CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL Stanford University
SECURITY AND COOPERATION Freeman Spogli Institute for
International Studies
Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305-6165
Phone: 650-723-9625
Fax: 650-724-5683
http://cisac.stanford.edu