Lawrence Klein

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Lawrence Klein
Born
September 14, 1920
Omaha, ebra!ka, "#S#
Died
October 20, 201$ %a&ed 9$'
(ladwyne, )enn!yl*ania, "#S#
Nationality "nited State!
Institution
"ni*# of )enn!yl*ania
"ni*er!ity of O+ford
"ni*er!ity of ,ichi&an
-./
0owle! 0ommi!!ion
Field
,acroeconomic!
.conometric!
School/tradition eo1Keyne!ian economic!
Alma mater
,23 %)h#4#'
"0 -erkeley %-#5#'
Influences )a6l Sam6el!on
Influenced .# /oy Weintra6b
Contributions
,acroeconometric foreca!tin&
model!
Awards
7ohn -ate! 0lark ,edal %1989'
obel ,emorial )ri9e in .conomic
Science! %19:0'
2nformation at 24.5S;/e).c
Lawrence Robert Klein %September 14, 1920 < October 20, 201$' wa! an 5merican economi!t# For hi! work in
creatin& comp6ter model! to foreca!t economic trend! in the field of econometric! in the 4epartment of .conomic!
at the "ni*er!ity of )enn!yl*ania, he wa! awarded the obel ,emorial )ri9e in .conomic Science! in 19:0
!pecifically =for the creation of econometric model! and their application to the analy!i! of economic fl6ct6ation!
and economic policie!#= 46e to hi! effort!, !6ch model! ha*e become wide!pread amon& economi!t!# >ar*ard
"ni*er!ity profe!!or ,artin Feld!tein told the Wall Street 7o6rnal that Klein =wa! the fir!t to create the !tati!tical
model! that embodied Keyne!ian economic!,= tool! !till 6!ed by the Federal /e!er*e -ank and other central bank!#
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Contents
1 Life and career
o 1#1 .arly model1b6ildin&
o 1#2 ,c0arthyi!m and mo*e to .n&land
o 1#$ /et6rn to the "#S#
o 1#4 -rookin&!1SS/0 )roAect
o 1#8 Wharton
o 1#B Later career
2 )6blication!
$ See al!o
4 /eference!
8 F6rther readin&
B .+ternal link!
Life and career
Klein wa! born in Omaha, ebra!ka, the !on of -lanche %nCe ,onheit' and Leo -yron Klein#
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>e went on to
&rad6ate from Lo! 5n&ele! 0ity 0olle&e, where he learned calc6l6!D the "ni*er!ity of 0alifornia, -erkeley, where
he be&an hi! comp6ter modelin& and earned a -#5# in .conomic! in 1942D he earned hi! )h#4# in .conomic! at the
,a!!ach6!ett! 2n!tit6te of 3echnolo&y %,23' in 1944#
arly model!buildin"
Klein then mo*ed to the 0owle! 0ommi!!ion for /e!earch in .conomic!, which wa! then at the "ni*er!ity of
0hica&o, now the 0owle! Fo6ndation# 3here he b6ilt a model of the "nited State! economy to foreca!t the
de*elopment of b6!ine!! fl6ct6ation! and to !t6dy the effect! of &o*ernment economic1political policy# 5fter World
War 22 Klein 6!ed hi! model to correctly predict, a&ain!t the pre*ailin& e+pectation, that there wo6ld be an
economic 6pt6rn rather than a depre!!ion d6e to increa!in& con!6mer demand from ret6rnin& !er*icemen#
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Similarly, he correctly predicted a mild rece!!ion at the end of the Korean War#
Klein briefly Aoined the 0omm6ni!t )arty d6rin& the 1940!, which led to tro6ble year! later#
5t the "ni*er!ity of ,ichi&an, Klein de*eloped enhanced macroeconomic model!, in partic6lar the famo6! Klein<
(oldber&er model with 5rth6r (oldber&er, which wa! ba!ed on fo6ndation! laid by 7an 3inber&en of the
etherland!, later winner of the fir!t economic! pri9e in 19B9# Klein differed from 3inber&en in 6!in& an
alternati*e economic theory and a different !tati!tical techniE6e#
#cCarthyism and mo$e to n"land
2n 1984, KleinF! brief member!hip in the 0omm6ni!t )arty wa! made p6blic
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and he wa! denied ten6re at the
"ni*er!ity of ,ichi&an, in the wake of the ,c0arthy era# Klein mo*ed to the "ni*er!ity of O+ford, and de*eloped
an economic model of the "nited Kin&dom known a! the O+ford model with Sir 7ame! -all# 5dditionally, at the
2n!tit6te of Stati!tic! Klein a!!i!ted with the creation of the -riti!h Sa*in&! S6r*ey!, ba!ed 6pon the ,ichi&an
S6r*ey!#
Return to the %&S&
2n 198: Klein ret6rned to the "#S# to Aoin the 4epartment of .conomic! at the "ni*er!ity of )enn!yl*ania# 2n 1989
he wa! awarded the 7ohn -ate! 0lark ,edal, one of the two mo!t pre!ti&io6! award! in the field of economic!# 2n
19B: he became the -enAamin Franklin )rofe!!or of .conomic! and Finance at )enn#
Broo'in"s!SSRC (ro)ect
2n the early 19B0! Klein became the leader of the maAor =-rookin&!1SS/0 )roAect= to con!tr6ct a detailed
econometric model to foreca!t the !hort1term de*elopment of the "#S# economy#
*harton
Later in the FB0!, Klein con!tr6cted the Wharton .conometric Foreca!tin& ,odel# 3hi! model, con!iderably !maller
than the -rookin&! model, achie*ed a *ery &ood rep6tation for it! analy!i! of b6!ine!! condition!, 6!ed to foreca!t
fl6ct6ation! incl6din& national prod6ct, e+port!, in*e!tment!, and con!6mption, and to !t6dy the effect on them of
chan&e! in ta+ation, p6blic e+pendit6re, oil price, etc#
2n 19B9 Klein fo6nded Wharton .conometric Foreca!tin& 5!!ociate! or W.F5 %now 2>S (lobal 2n!i&ht',
la6nchin& the econometric foreca!tin& ind6!try in the "nited State!# 5mon& hi! client! were (eneral .lectric
0ompany, 2-,, and -ethlehem Steel 0orporation# >e wa! the initiator of, and an acti*e re!earch leader in their
L2K proAect, a con!orti6m of model b6ilder! from many co6ntrie!, which wa! al!o mentioned in hi! obel
citation# 3he aim wa! to prod6ce the worldF! fir!t &lobal economic model, linkin& model! of many of the worldF!
co6ntrie! !o that the effect of chan&e! in the economy of one co6ntry are reflected in the other# L2K, which i! now
operated by the "nited ation!, i! !till meetin& re&6larly, mo!t recently in October 2009 in -an&kok#
Klein !er*ed a! a the!i! ad*i!or for n6mero6! well1known economi!t! incl6din& .# /oy Weintra6b in the late
19B0!#
Later career
46rin& the "nited State! pre!idential election, 19GB, Klein coordinated 7immy 0arterF! economic ta!k force# >e
declined an in*itation to Aoin 0arterF! admini!tration# Klein ha! al!o been pre!ident of the .conometric Society and
the 5merican .conomic 5!!ociation %in 19GG'#
>i! obel citation concl6de! that =few, if any, re!earch worker! in the empirical field of economic !cience, ha*e
had !o many !6cce!!or! and !6ch a lar&e impact a! Lawrence Klein=#
2n hi! final year!, he wa! con!tr6ctin& !hort ran&e =c6rrent E6arter model!= that 6!e c6rrent economic indicator! to
&et a handle on the rate of economic &rowth d6rin& the c6rrent and ne+t E6arter# 2n contra!t to earlier effort! to
model the economy !tr6ct6rally and to 6!e con!tant adA6!tment! and A6d&mental e!timate! for the e+o&eno6!
*ariable!, the!e !y!tem! are deliberately a6tomatic and mechanical, !imply tran!latin& a*ailable information into a
!tati!tically be!t e!timate of c6rrent condition!# 3hi! repre!ent! a *ery different tradition from hi! earlier model
b6ildin& and application!#
5fter formal retirement and 6ntil hi! death he wa! en&a&ed in macro econometric model b6ildin& hi&h1freE6ency
model! that proAect the economy in a monthly, E6arterly frame# 5 p6blication on hi&h freE6ency model containin&
co6ntrie! !6ch a! "S, 0hina, /6!!ia, 2ndia, -ra9il, ,e+ico, Korea and >on& Kon& wa! e+pected in 200:#
Klein wa! a fo6ndin& tr6!tee of .conomi!t! for )eace and Sec6rity#
>e died at hi! home on October 20, 201$# >e wa! 9$#
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(ublications
Klein, Lawrence /obert %19G0'# An essay on the theory of economic prediction# ,arkham economic! !erie!
%5merican ed#'# 0hica&oH ,arkham )6bli!hin& 0ompany# 2S- 01:4101200811# /etrie*ed 200:112108#
.conomic Fl6ct6ation! in the "nited State!, 1921<41 %1980'
5n .conometric ,odel of the "nited State!, 1929<82 %with 5S (oldber&er, 1988'
3he Keyne!ian /e*ol6tion %194G' 2S- 01$$$10:1$118
3he Wharton .conometric Foreca!tin& ,odel %with ,K .*an!, 19BG'
5 3e+tbook of .conometric! %19G$' 2S- 011$1912:$21:
3he -rookin&! ,odel %With (ary Fromm# 19G8'
.conometric ,odel )erformance %19GB'
5n 2ntrod6ction to .conometric Foreca!tin& and Foreca!tin& ,odel! %19:0' 2S- 01BB9102:9B1G
.conometric ,odel! 5! (6ide! for 4eci!ion ,akin& %19:2' 2S- 0102191G4$019
3he .conomic! of S6pply and 4emand 19:$
.conomic!, .conometric! and 3he L2K %with , 46tta, 1998' 2S- 014441:1G:G18
0hina and 2ndiaH 3wo 5!ian .conomic (iant!, 3wo 4ifferent Sy!tem! %2004'# 5rticle free downloadable at
the Ao6rnal 5pplied .conometric! and 2nternational 4e*elopment httpH;;www#6!c#e!;economet;aeid#htm