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Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo

Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia


Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br

Curso de Atualizao em Derivativos Agropecurios-EaD
(http://www.esalq.usp.br/svcex/curso.php?id=438)

Disciplina !" 8#8$Derivatvos %&ropecu'rios do (urso de )*s$+radua,-o e. !cono.ia %plicada da !salq


%ulas: 3/. e 0/ 1eira 2 8:00 - 12:00 hora $ presencial ou ao vivo via 3nternet
Parte I: Outubro 07,09, 14,16,21,23,28,30
Parte II: Novembro: 4,6,11,13,18,20,25,27; Dezembro: 2,4,9,11

(erti1ica,-o 4") co.o (urso de !xtens-o
(ar&a hor'ria: 8# horas aula 5 6# horas para desenvolvi.ento e apresenta,-o de trabalho = 7## horas$
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%prova,-o: presen,a .:ni.a de 80; e nota .:ni.a de <
=b>etivo: !ntender o 1unciona.ento dos .ercados 1uturos e de op,?es a&ropecu'rios@ estratA&ias que
pode. ser utiliBadas para ad.inistra,-o de riscos de pre,os@ .odela&e. e estratA&ias avan,adas.
!speci1ica.ente:
7. 8a pri.eira parte da disciplinaC pretende$se conhecer de 1or.a te*rica e pr'tica o 1unciona.ento
dos .ercados 1uturos e de op,?es a&ropecu'rias visando ad.inistra,-o de riscos@ desenvolver a
habilidade de acessar in1or.a,?es e interpret'$las e. bolsas nacionais e internacionais@ discutir
estratA&ias atuais e potenciais.
6. 8a se&unda parte do curso realiBa.$se se.in'rios e. t*picos de pesquisa sobre .ercados
1uturos e de op,?es a&ropecu'rios. !studos tradicionais sobre o assunto s-o discutidos e.
detalhes principal.ente e. t*picos relacionados a hed&in&C descoberta de pre,osC e1iciDncia dos
.ercados e .udan,as na .icroestruturas dos .ercados. 8o 1inal dessa parteC os estudantes
desenvolve. individual.ente o seu trabalho pesquisa. %o 1inal desse cursoC o aluno torna$se
conhecedor dos i.portantes t*picos de pesquisa e processos de .odela&e. e. .ercados
1uturos e de op,?es a&ropecu'rias.
)ro1essores Eespons'veis: )edro F. Garques (attes: http://lattes.cnpq.br/076<476HIH#I08H3)C Jo-o
+o.es Gartines$Kilho (attes: http://lattes.cnpq.br/04<<#7#38#4IHH48)C Lalde.ar %ntonio da Eocha de
"ouBa (http://lattes.cnpq.br/I30H<74000I306#3)

3nteressados preencher 1icha inscri,-o anexaC enviar (F resu.ido indicando se A aluno de p*sC disciplinas
cursadas na 'rea !cono.etriaC n:vel de pro1iciDncia e. 3n&les etc.
3nscri,?es de #7 a 6H/#I/6#74
(o.unica,-o dos alunos selecionados: dia #3/7#/6#74

=s alunos selecionados ser-o cadastrados no siste.a e receber-o u. linM para assistir as aulas via
internet. )articipa,-o nas aulas via (hat

)ro1. )edro F. Garques
pv.arqueNusp.br
!salq/4")

Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br

CURSO DE DERIVAIVOS A!RO"ECU#RIOS
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!.presa onde trabalha atual.ente:
!ndere,o co.ercial:
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Ea.o de atua,-o da e.presa:
(ar&o:

3n1or.a,?es sobre experiDncia pro1issional (atividades desenvolvidas):

(orrespondDncia: ( ) !ndere,o pessoal ( ) !ndere,o pro1issional

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O6s7 use o verso se -ecessrio

Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br


I-,orma.es Adicio-ais:


7) (onheci.ento co.o usu'rio de in1or.'tica ()rocessador de OextoC "o1tware para %presenta,?esC
)lanilhaC !$.ail):

( ) nenhu. ( ) re&ular ( ) bo. ( ) *ti.o


6) (onheci.ento de 3n&lDs:

( ) nenhu. ( ) re&ular ( ) bo. ( ) *ti.o


3) )ossui notebooM?

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4) De qual cidade estar' assistindo as aulas?

QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ

REOR8AR A9 O DIA (:&);&*+
CO3 CURRICU$U3 RESU3IDO A8E<ADO E C="IA DOS DOCU3E8OS 2R!> C"/>
DI"$O3A> CO3"ROVA8E DE RESID?8CIA4
"ECE!E
Rua Alexandre Herculano, 120 Sala T4
CEP 13418-445 Piracicaba/SP
Tel 19 3377 0937
E-mail comunica@pecege.esalq.usp.br

I-dicao dos alu-os selecio-ados7 dia )@&*)&()*+








Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br

CURSO DE DERIVAIVOS A!RO"ECU#RIOS
ESA$%&US" ' Outu6ro&()*+


Curso dividido em 2 fases
Mdia final = (0,5*Nota FASE I + 0,5*Nota FASE II)


Fase I do Curso

Prof. Responsvel: Pedro V. Marques (Lattes: http://lattes.cnpq.br/5127412696095863),
Aulas: 3. e 5 feira 8:00 - 12:00 hora
Perodo: Outubro 07,09, 14,16,21,23,28,30

OBJETIVOS: entender o funcionamento dos mercados futuros e de opes agropecurias; estratgias que
podem ser utilizadas para administrao de riscos de preos; modelagem e estratgias avanadas.
Especificamente, pretene-se: conhecer de forma terica e prtica o funcionamento dos mercados futuros e
de opes agropecurias visando administrao de riscos; desenvolver a habilidade de acessar
informaes e interpret-las; discutir estratgias atuais e potenciais; desenvolver o conhecimento avanado
da Teoria de Hedge om o uso de derivativos agropecurios.

JUSTIFICATIVA: a abertura e internacionalizao da economia brasileira e o afastamento do governo do
financiamento e garantia de preos agropecurios criaram a necessidade de procura de instrumentos de
anlise de eficincia, administrao de riscos de preos e busca de alternativas de financiamento.

EMENTA
PARTE 1: Fundamentos bsicos de funcionamento dos mercados agropecurios: papel, constituio e
funo das bolsas; corretores, clearing house. Principais Bolsas e contratos. Cotaes em bolsas; acesso a
fontes de dados. Caractersticas dos contratos futuros agropecurios. Definies, ajustes dirios, margens,
limites de oscilaes de preos. Custos de atuar nos mercados futuros. Liquidao e entrega. Teoria da
base. Arbitragens e Spreads. Especulao em futuros. Anlise fundamentalista e grafista. Opes sobre
futuros; valor de exerccio, prmio, valor das opes. Exerccio de opes sobre futuros. Lanamento de
opes; valor terico das opes, volatilidade, delta das opes. Vantagens e desvantagens das opes.
Estratgias com futuros e opes (CPR, Barter, etc). Estudos de casos em futuros e opes

Avaliao Fase I do Curso:
0,20*mdia trabalhos + 0,8 prova
Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br



Fase II do Curso

Perodo: 04/11/2014 11/12/2014
Prof. Responsvel: Joo Gomes Martines-Filho (Lattes: http://lattes.cnpq.br/5477010380496648)
OBJETIVO GERAL:

Desenvolver conhecimento avanado da teoria e prtica de mercados de derivativos agropecurios.


PROGRAMAO FASE II:

Aula 1 (04/Novembro/2014, 3-feira), 8:00hs

Fundamentos dos Mercados Futuros e de Opes

1. Does Futures Trading Reduce Price Fluctuations in the Cash Markets?, Powers (1970)
2. Why there are Organized Futures Markets, Telser (1981)
3. Economic Role of Traditional Commodity Futures Markets, Peck (1985)
4. Commodity Futures and Options, Williams (2001)

Aula 2 (06/Novembro/2014, 5-feira), 8:00 hs

Reviso Bibliogrfica em Derivativos Agropecurios

1. The Economics of Commodity Futures Markets: a survey, Gray and Rutledge (1971)
2. Speculation and Price Behavior on Commodity markets: a survey, Tomek (1981)
3. The Behavior of Futures Markets: a review of theory, Kamara (1984)
4. Research on Futures Markets, Blank (1989)
5. Commodity Futures Markets: a survey, Carter (1999)
6. Risk Management in Agricultural Markets: a review, Tomek and Peterson (2001)
7. A Century of Research on Agricultural Markets, Myers, Sexton and Tomek (2010)

Aula 3 (11/Novembro/2014, 3-feira), 13:00 hs

- 4 Conferncia em Gesto de Risco e Comercializao de Commodities, So Paulo, SP,
http://www.bmfbovespa.com.br/CGRCC/Home.asp

Aula 4 (12/Novembro/2014, 4-feira), 08:00 hs

- 4 Conferncia em Gesto de Risco e Comercializao de Commodities, So Paulo, SP,
http://www.bmfbovespa.com.br/CGRCC/Home.asp




Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br


Aula 5 (18/Novembro/2014, 2-feira), 8:00 hs

Seleo de Papers do Working

1. Price Relations Between July and September Wheat Futures, Working (1933)
2. Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets (1948)
3. The Theory of Price of Storage, Working (1949)
4. Futures Trading and Hedging, Working (1953)
5. Hedging Reconsidered, Working (1953)
6. A Theory of Anticipatory Prices, Working (1958)
7. Price Effects of Futures Trading, Working (1960)
8. Speculation on Hedging Markets, Working (1960)
9. Economic Functions of Futures Markets, Working (1970)


Aula 7 (25/Novembro/2014, 3-feira), 10:00 hs

- Mini-Oficina para o Desenvolvimento de Artigos Tcnicos, Prof Waldemar Souza

Aula 8 (27/Novembro/2014, 5-feira), 8:00 hs

Teoria da Razo de Hedge

1. The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets, Ederington (1979)
2. Determination of the Recommended Hedging Ratio, Kahl (1983)
3. Complex Hedges: how well do they work, Grant and Eaker (1989)
4. Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation, Myers e Thompson (1989)
5. Relaxing the Assumptions of Minimum Variance Hedging, Lence (1996)
6. Futures Hedge Ratios: a review, Chen et al. (2003),
7. Relaxing standard hedging assumptions in the presence of downside risk, Mattos, Garcia e Nelson
(2006)
8. Efetividade e Razo tima de Hedge: um survey, Rodrigues (2010)
9. Probability weighting and loss aversion in futures hedging, Mattos et al. (2008)


Aula 9 (02/Dezembro/2014, 3-feira), 8:00hs

Eficincia de Mercados

1 . Efficient Capital Markets I, Fama (1970)
2 . Efficient Capital Markets II, Fama (1991)
3. Success and Failure of Agricultural Futures Contracts, Brorsen and Fofana (2001)
4. Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets, McKenzie e Holt (2002)
5. More Reasons Why Farmers Have so Little Interest in Futures Markets, Pannell et al. (2008)
6. The Profitability of Technical Analysis: a review, Park and Irwin (2004)
7. The Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency over Time: a survey, Lim and Brooks (2010)
8. History of the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Sewell (2011)
9. Revisiting the Determinants of Futures Contracts: The Curious Case of Distillers' Dried Grains,
Bekkerman and Tejeda (2013)
Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br


Aula 10 (04/Dezembro/2014, 5-feira), 8:00 horas

Tpicos Avanados

1. Commodity Options for Agriculture, Gardner (1977)
2. Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues, Cont (2001)
3. Characterization of Financial Time Series, Sewell (2011)
4. Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets, Irwin and Sanders (2012)
5. Volatility Spillovers in U.S. Crude Oil, Ethanol, and Corn Futures Markets Trujillo-Barrera, Mallory
and Garcia (2012)
6. Returns to individual traders in agricultural futures markets: skill or luck?, Aulerich, Irwin and Garcia
(2013)


Aula 11 (11/Dezembro/2013, 5-feira), 9:00 horas

Apresentao das propostas de trabalho

9:00 hs: Os alunos devem apresentar individualmente em powerpoint uma proposta de trabalho para o
artigo que ser entregue no final do curso. Nessa proposta o aluno deve apresentar o objetivo do trabalho,
justificar a importncia do trabalho, discutir alguns artigos relevantes ao tema e, se houver, apresentar
alguns resultados preliminares. Aps cada apresentao haver tempo para perguntas e sugestes.

Aula 12 (26/Janeiro/2015, 2-feira)

ENTREGA DOS TRABALHOS POR EMAIL (martines@usp.br) AT AS 18HS


AVALIAO FASE II

NOTA PARTE 1 (= NP1): apresentao individual de papers conforme relao acima
NOTA PARTE 2 (= NP2): Desenvolvimento e apresentao de paper individual (apresentao de
ppt no dia 11/dezembro/2014 e trabalho final no dia 26/janeiro/2015).


BIBLIOGRAFIA

Alevy, J.E., M.S. Haigh and J.A. List (2007). Information cascades: evidence from a field experiment with
financial market professionals. The JournalofFinance 62, 151-180.
Carter, C.A. (1999). Commodity futures markets: a survey. Australian Journal of Agricultural and
Resource Economics 43, 209-247
Chen, S., C. Lee, and K. Shrestha (2003). Futures hedge ratios: a review. The Quarterly Review of
Economics and Finance 43, 433-465.
CME. Guia auto-didtico para hedge com futuros e opes de gros e sementes oleaginosas. CME,
Chicago, Illinois, 2011
Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br

CME Group. Manual de futuros para operadores. CME, Chicago, Illinois, 2011
Collins, R.A. (1997). Towards a positive economic theory of hedging. American Journal of Agricultural
Economics 79, 488-499.
Coval, J.D. and T. Shumway (2005). Do behavioral biases affect prices? The Journal of Finance 60, 1-34.
Fortenbery, T.R. and H.O. Zapata (1993). An examination of cointegration relationships between futures
and local grain markets. Journal of Futures Markets 13, 921-932.
Frechette, D. (2000). The demand for hedging and the value of hedging opportunities. American Journal
of Agricultural Economics 82, 897-907.
Garcia, P. and R.M. Leuthold (2004). A selected review of agricultural commodity futures and options
markets. European Review of Agricultural Economics 31, 235-272.
Garcia, P., R.M. Leuthold, R. Fortenbery, and G.F. Sarassoro (1988). Pricing efficiency in the live cattle
futures market: further interpretation and measurement. American Journal of Agricultural Economics
70,162-169.
Goodhart, C.A.E. and M. OHara (1997). High-frequency data in financial markets: issues and
applications. Journal of Empirical Finance 4, 73-114.
Hoos, Sidney, and Holbrook Working.Price Relations of Liverpool Wheat Futures. Wheat Studies of the
Food Research Institute, Vol. XVII, No. 114, November 1940.
Hull, J.C. Options, futures and other derivatives. New Jersey, Prentice Hall, 5th edition, 2003.
Irwin, S.H., P. Garcia, D.L. Good and E.L. Kunda (2009). Poor convergence performance of corn,
soybean and wheat futures contracts: causes and solutions. Marketing and Outlook Research Paper 2009-
02, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
Kellard, N. (2002). Evaluating commodity market efficiency: are cointegration tests appropriate? Journal
of Agricultural Economics 53, 513-529.
Lence, S.H. (1996). Relaxing the assumptions of minimum-variance hedging. Journal of Agricultural and
Resource Economics 21, 39-55.
LEUTHOLD, R.M.; J.C.JUNKUS & J.E. CORDIER. The theory and practice of futures
markets.Lexington Books, 1989.
Lien, D. and Y.K. Tse (2002). Physical delivery versus cash settlement: an empirical study on the feeder
cattle contract. Journal of Empirical Finance 9, 361-371.
Linn, S.C. and Z. Zhu (2004). Natural gas prices and the gas storage report: public news and volatility in
energy futures markets. The Journal of Futures Markets 24, 283-313.
Madhavan, A. (2000). Market microstructure: a survey. Journal of Financial Markets 3, 205-258.
Marques, P.V.; P.C. DE MELLO& J.G. Martines Fo. Mercados Futuros Agropecurios. So Paulo,
Editora Campus/Elsevier, 2008.
McKenzie, A.M. and M.T. Holt (2002).Market efficiency in agricultural futures markets. Applied
Economics 34, 1519-1532.
Myers, R.J. (1991). Estimating time-varying optimal hedge ratios in futures markets. The Journal of
Futures Markets 11, 39-53.
Myers, R.J. and S.R. Thompson (1989).Generalized optimal hedge ratio estimation. American Journal of
Agricultural Economics 78, 858-868.
Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br

Pennings, J.M.E. and P. Garcia (2004).Hedging behavior in small and medium-sized enterprises: the role
of unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of Banking & Finance 28, 951-978.
Pennings, J.M.E., and R.M. Leuthold (2000). The motivation for hedging revisited. The Journal of Futures
Markets 20, 865-885.
Tomek, W.G. & K.L. Robinson. Agricultural Product Prices. NY, Cornell University Press, 4 th .Edition,
2003.
Tomek, W.G. (1997). Commodity futures prices as forecasts. Review of Agricultural Economics 19, 23-
44.
Tomek, W.G. and H.H. Peterson (2001). Risk management in agricultural markets: a review. Journal of
Futures Markets 21, 953-985.
Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman (1981).The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science
211, 453-458.
Weber, M. and H. Zuchel (2005). How do prior outcomes affect risk attitude? Comparing escalation of
commitment and the house-money effect. Decision Analysis 2, 30-43.
Working, Holbrook. Economic Functions of Futures Markets. in Futures Trading in Livestock: Origins
and Concepts, Herry H. Bakken ed., Mimir Publishers, Inc.: Madison, WI, 1970, pp. 1-47.
Working, Holbrook. Futures Markets Under Renewed Attack. Food Research Institute Studies
4(1963):13-24.
Working, Holbrook. Hedging Reconsidered. Journal of Farm Economics 35(1953):544-561.
Working, Holbrook. Note on the Correlation of First Differences of Averages in a Random chain.
Econometrica 28(1960):916-18.
Working, Holbrook. Price of Cash Wheat and Futures at Chicago Since 1883. Wheat Studies of the
Food Research Institute, Vol. XI, No. 79, November 1934.
Working, Holbrook. Price Relations Between July and September Wheat Futures at Chicago Since
1885. Wheat Studies of the Food Research Institute, Vol. IX, No. 6, March 1933.
Working, Holbrook. Price Relations Between May and New-Crop Wheat Futures at Chicago Since
1885. Wheat Studies of the Food Research Institute, Vol. X, No. 5, February 1934.
Working, Holbrook. Review of Irwin, Evolution of Futures Trading. Journal of Farm Economics
37(1955):377-380.
Working, Holbrook. Whose Markets? Evidence on Some Aspects of Futures Trading. Journal of
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Working, Holbrook.A Random-Difference Series for Use in the Analysis of Time Series. Journal of the
American Statistical Association 29(1934):11-24.
Working, Holbrook.A Theory of Anticipatory Prices. American Economic Review Proceedings
48(1958):188-199.
Working, Holbrook.Cycles in Wheat Prices. Wheat Studies of the Food Research Institute, November,
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Working, Holbrook.Differential Price Behavior as a Subject for Commodity Price
Analysis.Econometrica 4(1935):416-427.
Working, Holbrook.Financial Results of Speculative Holding of Wheat. Wheat Studies of the Food
Research Institute, Vol. VII, No. 8, July 1931.
Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Universidade de So Paulo
Departamento de Economia, Administrao e Sociologia
Programa de Educao Continuada em Economia e Gesto de Empresas

Caixa Postal 252 CEP 13.400-970 Piracicaba SP Brasil
Telefone/Fax: (19) 3429-8806 E-mail: pecege@esalq.usp.br

Working, Holbrook.Forecasting the Price of Wheat. Journal of Farm Economics 9(1927):273-287.
Working, Holbrook.Futures Trading and Hedging. American Economic Review 43(1953):314-343.
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19(1937):309-312.
Working, Holbrook.Measurement of Cycles in Speculative Prices. Food Research Institute Studies
13(1974):37-59.
Working, Holbrook.New Concepts Concerning Futures Markets and Prices. American Economic
Review, Papers and Proceedings 51(1961):160-163.
Working, Holbrook.New Concepts Concerning Futures Markets and Prices. American Economic
Review Proceedings 52(1962):431-459.
Working, Holbrook.New Ideas and Methods for Price Research. Journal of Farm Economics
38(1956):1427-1436.
Working, Holbrook.Price Effects of Canadian Wheat Marketing. Wheat Studies of the Food Research
Institute, Vol. XIV, October 1937.
Working, Holbrook.Price Effects of Futures Trading. Food Research Institute Studies 1(1960):3-31.
Working, Holbrook.Price Effects of Scalping and Day Trading. Proceedings of Chicago Board of Trade
Annual Symposium, September 1954, pp. 114-39.
Working, Holbrook.Price Supports and the Effectiveness of Hedging. Journal of Farm Economics
35(1953):811-818.
Working, Holbrook.Professor Vaile and the Theory of Inverse Carrying Charges. Journal of Farm
Economics 31(1949):168-172.
Working, Holbrook.Quotations on Commodity Futures as Price Forecasts.Econometrica 16(1942):39-
52.
Working, Holbrook.Review of Commodity Exchanges and Futures Trading. American Economic
Review 39(1949):1043-1045.
Working, Holbrook.Speculation on Hedging Markets. Food Research Institute Studies 1(1960):185-220.
Working, Holbrook.Tests of a Theory Concerning Floor Trading on Commodity Exchanges. Food
Research Institute Studies 7(1967 Supplement):5-48.
Working, Holbrook.The Investigation of Economic Expectations. American Economic Review, Papers
and Proceedings 39(1949):150-166.
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