Interviews: N=840 Likely Voters in Competitive

U.S. House and Senate Races

Interviewing Period: October 3 October 11, 2014
Margin of Error = 4.2% for Full Sample,
5.9% House (n=433), 5.7% for Senate (n=407)
Designed and Directed by: SocialSphere, Inc.

Conducted by: GfK using sample from KnowledgePanel

Mode: Online (in English and Spanish)

Note: The sum of percentages for each question may not add up to 100% as each response is rounded
to the nearest percent.
1.

We understand that plenty of people are not registered to vote, but we are wondering if you are
registered to vote?
Yes .........................................................

2.

Are you registered to vote at your home address?

Yes .........................................................

3.

100%

How likely is it that you will vote in the general midterm elections for Congress in November?
Definitely will be voting ...........................
Probably will be voting ............................

4.

100%

82%
18%

Regardless of how likely you are to vote, how enthusiastic are you about this election?
NET: Not Enthusiastic ..........................
0 - Not at all enthusiastic ........................
1 .............................................................
2 .............................................................

9%
3%
2%
4%

3 .............................................................
4 .............................................................
5 .............................................................
6 .............................................................
7 .............................................................

8%
7%
20%
11%
16%

NET: Enthusiastic .................................

8 .............................................................
9 .............................................................
10 - Extremely enthusiastic ....................

29%
8%
5%
15%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

5.

6.

7.

8.

When it comes to voting, with which party do you consider yourself to be affiliated?
NET: Democrat .....................................
Strong Democrat ....................................
Not a very strong Democrat ...................

36%
22%
13%

NET: Republican ...................................

Strong Republican ..................................
Not a very strong Republican .................

36%
19%
17%

NET: Independent/Unaffiliated ............

Leans Democrat .....................................
Leans Republican ...................................
Does not lean either way ........................

28%
8%
9%
11%

Decline to answer ...................................

Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a
supporter of the Tea Party movement?
Supporter ................................................
Not a supporter .......................................
Not sure ..................................................

17%
58%
25%

Decline to answer ...................................

All in all, do you think that things in the nation are...?

Generally headed in the right direction ...
Off on the wrong track ............................
Not sure what direction the country
is headed in ............................................

20%
50%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

30%

Thinking ahead several years, is your outlook about the United States generally optimistic or
generally pessimistic?
Optimistic ................................................
Pessimistic .............................................

49%
50%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

9.

Thinking about national issues for a moment, which issue concerns you most?
(Open-ended question coded responses)
NET: Economy ......................................
Economy - General ...............................
Jobs ........................................................
National debt/budget/government
spending .................................................
Financial stability ....................................
Economic equality/inequality ..................
Taxes ......................................................

40%
20%
9%

NET: National Security .........................

National Security/war/defense cuts .......
Terrorism ................................................

20%
10%
9%

Health Care - General ............................

Immigration .............................................
Government/political corruption ..............
Social/religious problems .......................
Education ...............................................
Foreign Affairs ........................................
President Obama/lack of leadership. .....
Environment. ..........................................
Lack of moral values. .............................
Socialism ................................................
Social Security. .......................................

11%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
*
*

Other ......................................................
None .......................................................
Dont know ..............................................
Declined to answer .................................

11%
1%
*
4%

4%
3%
1%
1%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of:

10.

Barack Obama as president.

NET: Approve .......................................
Strongly approve ....................................
Somewhat approve ................................

47%
12%
34%

NET: Disapprove ..................................

Somewhat disapprove ............................
Strongly disapprove ................................

53%
17%
37%

Decline to answer ...................................

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

11.

12.

13.

The Democrats in Congress.

NET: Approve .......................................
Strongly approve ....................................
Somewhat approve ................................

38%
5%
33%

NET: Disapprove ..................................

Somewhat disapprove ............................
Strongly disapprove ................................

61%
28%
33%

Decline to answer ...................................

The Republicans in Congress.

NET: Approve .......................................
Strongly approve ....................................
Somewhat approve ................................

30%
2%
28%

NET: Disapprove ..................................

Somewhat disapprove ............................
Strongly disapprove ................................

70%
32%
38%

Decline to answer ...................................

If the election for the [U.S. House of Representatives/U.S. Senate] were held today, would you
vote for the [Democratic candidate] or the [Republican candidate] in [your district/your state]?
Democratic candidate (incudes KS-I) .....
Republican candidate .............................
Don't know ..............................................

41%
36%
23%

Decline to answer ...................................

[If Dont know in Q13, ask]

14.

As of now, do you lean toward the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
Lean: Democratic (incudes KS-I) ...........
Lean: Republican ...................................
Don't know ..............................................
Decline to answer ...................................

(n=192)
15%
22%
62%
1%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

2014 Election Vote With Leaners Allocated

15.

16.

17.

18.

Democratic candidate (incudes KS-I) .....

Republican candidate .............................
Don't know ..............................................

44%
41%
14%

Decline to answer ...................................

Which of the following comes closest to your own view regarding the Affordable Care Act, also
known as Obamacare?
Keep the law as it is ...............................
Keep the law, but with modifications ......
Repeal the law ........................................

17%
41%
41%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

Under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, do you think your quality of care will
get better, worse or stay about the same?
Better ......................................................
Worse .....................................................
About the same ......................................

18%
41%
40%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

Under the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, do you think the amount of money
you pay personally will increase, decrease or stay about the same?
Increase ..................................................
Decrease ................................................
About the same ......................................

57%
7%
34%

Decline to answer ...................................

2%

When considering your vote in the midterm elections for Congress do you place more
importance on local issues related to your state, or do you place more importance on federal
issues related to the country as a whole?
Federal issues ........................................
Local issues ............................................
Not sure ..................................................

54%
27%
18%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

19.

20.

21.

22.

How serious a threat to our homeland is ISIS, also referred to as the Islamic State?
NET: Serious .........................................
Very serious ...........................................
Serious ...................................................

84%
43%
40%

NET: Not serious ..................................

Not very serious .....................................
Not serious at all .....................................

12%
9%
3%

Dont know ..............................................

5%

Are you more concerned about the threat of a terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or the
possibility of another drawn-out U.S. war in Iraq?
Threat of terrorist attack .........................
Possibility of another drawn-out war ......

60%
39%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

Which of the following statements comes closest to your own view?

U.S. military actions should be
limited to direct threats to our
national security .....................................

58%

As the worlds moral leader,

the U.S. has a responsibility to use its
military to protect democracy
around the globe ....................................

27%

Dont know ..............................................

Decline to answer ...................................

15%
*

Which party do you think is closer to big business and Wall Street? Democrats, Republicans, or
are both parties equally close to big business and Wall Street?
Republicans ............................................
Democrats ..............................................
Both parties equally close ......................

39%
9%
51%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

Which of the following comes closest to your own views when you think about the United
States?
Things in the U.S. feel like they are out
of control right now .................................

64%

Im confident that the U.S. is in a good

position to meet its economic and
national security challenges ...................

36%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

Which President do you believe was more effective at managing the basic functions of the
federal government?
George W. Bush .....................................
Barack Obama .......................................
Both about the same ..............................

38%
35%
26%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

How much confidence do you have that the U.S. government is doing everything possible to
contain the spread of Ebola?
NET: A lot/some confidence ................
A lot of confidence ..................................
Some confidence ....................................

61%
22%
39%

NET: Not much/no confidence ............

Not much confidence ..............................
No confidence at all ................................

33%
21%
12%

Dont know ..............................................

5%

In general, do you like to talk about current events with your friends?
Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................

60%
40%

Decline to answer ...................................

Do you have the feeling that your friends and neighbors generally regard you as a good source
of advice about current events?
Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................

53%
46%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

28.

29.

30.

31.

In the last year, have you posted political-oriented content or commentary on a social media
site?
Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................

18%
81%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

In the past 2 years have you been an active participant in a civic, community or political
organization?
Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................

19%
80%

Decline to answer ...................................

In the past 2 years have you donated money to a political or issues-based cause?
Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................

21%
79%

Decline to answer ...................................

When it comes to most political issues, do you think of yourself as a...?

Liberal .....................................................
Moderate ................................................
Conservative ..........................................

17%
44%
38%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

[If Moderate in Q31, ask]

32.

As a moderate, which way do you lean?

Liberal .....................................................
Moderate ................................................
Conservative ..........................................
Decline to answer ...................................

(n=372)
25%
45%
28%
2%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

33.

What is your religion?

Protestant (e.g., Methodist,
Lutheran, Presbyterian, Episcopal) ........
Catholic ..................................................
Baptist - any denomination .....................
Pentecostal .............................................
Jewish ....................................................
Mormon ..................................................
Hindu ......................................................
Buddhist .................................................
Eastern Orthodox ...................................
Muslim ....................................................

28%
21%
16%
3%
2%
1%
1%
*
*
*

Other Christian .......................................

Other non-Christian ................................

11%
2%

None .......................................................

14%

[If anything except None in Q33, ask]

34.

How important is religion in your own life?

Very important ........................................
Somewhat important ..............................
Not very important ..................................
Not sure ..................................................
Decline to answer ...................................

(n=718)
62%
24%
12%
1%
1%

[If Baptist, Protestant, Catholic, Pentecostal, Eastern Orthodox or Other Christian in

Q33, ask]
35.

Do you consider yourself a born-again, or evangelical Christian?

Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................
Not sure ..................................................
Decline to answer ...................................

(n=663)
40%
46%
6%
8%

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

36.

37.

How often do you attend religious services?

More than once a week ..........................
Once a week ..........................................
Once or twice a month ...........................
A few times a year ..................................
Once a year ............................................
Less than once a year ............................
Never ......................................................

13%
26%
9%
18%
3%
14%
17%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

Are you, or is any member of your household a union member?

Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................

17%
82%

Decline to answer ...................................

1%

[If Yes in Q37, ask]

38.

Is the union that you or a household member belongs to a public employee union or a labor
union?
(n=142)
Public employee union ...........................
38%
Labor union ............................................
55%
Both ........................................................
7%
Decline to answer ...................................

39.

Age
18-24 ......................................................
25-34 ......................................................
35-44 ......................................................
45-54 ......................................................
55-64 ......................................................
65-74 ......................................................
75+ .........................................................

40.

5%
14%
14%
19%
24%
16%
8%

Highest level of education

Less than high school .............................
High school .............................................
Some college ..........................................
Bachelor's degree or higher ...................

6%
25%
32%
37%

10

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

41.

Race/Ethnicity
White, Non-Hispanic ...............................
Black, Non-Hispanic ...............................
Hispanic ..................................................
Other, Non-Hispanic ...............................
2+ Races, Non-Hispanic.........................

42.

Gender
Male ........................................................
Female ...................................................

43.

7%
10%
4%
*

13%
20%
18%
20%
29%

Marital Status
Married ...................................................
Never married .........................................
Divorced .................................................
Widowed .................................................
Living with partner ..................................
Separated ...............................................

46.

79%

Household Income
Less than $20,000 ..................................
$20,000 to $49,999 ................................
$50,000 to $74,999 ................................
$75,000 to $99,999 ................................
Over $100,000 ........................................

45.

47%
53%

Housing
A one-family house detached from
any other house ......................................
A one-family house attached to one
or more houses ......................................
A building with 2 or more apartments .....
A mobile home .......................................
Boat, RV, van, etc. .................................

44.

77%
13%
4%
4%
1%

64%
16%
9%
6%
4%
1%

Region
New England ..........................................
Mid-Atlantic .............................................
East-North Central ..................................
West-North Central .................................
South Atlantic .........................................
East South Central .................................
West-South Central ................................
Mountain .................................................
Pacific .....................................................

4%
7%
18%
13%
28%
4%
8%
10%
8%

11

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

12

47.

Ownership Status of Living Quarters

Owned or being bought by you or
someone in your household ...................
Rented for cash ......................................
Occupied without payment of cash rent .

48.

Current Employment Status

Working as a paid employee ...............
Working self-employed ........................
Not working on a temporary layoff .......
Not working looking for work ...............
Not working retired ..............................
Not working disabled ...........................
Not working other ................................

49.

50%
7%
*
4%
25%
6%
7%

Language of Interview
English ....................................................
Spanish ..................................................

50.

79%
18%
3%

97%
3%

Household Internet Access

Yes .........................................................
No ...........................................................

82%
18%

Methodology
Partnering with SocialSphere, Inc., of Cambridge, Massachusetts which designed and directed the
survey POLITICO surveyed 840 likely voters in the states and districts with the most competitive
Senate and House races, as ranked by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Conducted from
October 3 October 11, the survey was administered on the web by GfK, using a sample from
KnowledgePanel, a large, national, probability-based online-survey panel. Respondents completed
the online survey in English and Spanish; the average completion time was 8 minutes.
While the polls are completed online, KnowledgePanels sampling frame includes Americans living in
households without Internet access. GfK sends mailers in English and Spanish to random
addresses in the U.S. Postal Services database. Recruits can join the panel by mailing back a form,
calling a toll-free phone number or visiting a website. GfK provides those who want to join the panel but
dont have Internet access with a computer and/or free Internet access.
This sampling method addresses some criticisms of online pollsnamely, that respondents are selfselecting. Unlike so-called opt-in panelsfor which firms recruit members via pop-up ads or ads on
websiteswhich anyone can join, KnowledgePanel is only comprised of those Americans randomly
selected through GfKs address-based sampling. A design summary for KnowledgePanel is available
here: www.knowledgenetworks.com/knpanel/docs/KnowledgePanel%28R%29-Design-SummaryDescription.pdf

LV | Competitive U.S. House & Senate | October 3 October 11, 2014

13

The margin of error for the full sample is plus-or-minus 4.2 percentage points. For likely voters in
competitive Senate states, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 5.7 percentage points. For likely voters
in competitive House districts, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 5.9 percentage points.
For this study, we sampled the same states and districts as Wave 3, which was conducted between
August 29 and September 7, 2014.
Likely voters were surveyed in the following states with competitive Senate elections: Alaska, Arkansas,
Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina,
New Hampshire, Oregon, South Dakota, Virginia and West Virginia.
Additionally, likely voters were surveyed in the following competitive House districts: Arizona-01,
Arizona-02, Arizona-09, Arkansas-02, Arkansas-04, California-07, California-10, California-21,
California-26, California-31, California-36, California-52, Colorado-06, Connecticut-05, Florida-02,
Florida-18, Florida-26, Georgia-12, Illinois-10, Illinois-11, Illinois-12, Illinois-13, Illinois-17, Indiana-02,
Iowa-01, Iowa-02, Iowa-03, Iowa-04, Maine-02, Massachusetts-06, Michigan-01, Michigan-07,
Michigan-08, Minnesota-02, Minnesota-07, Minnesota-08, Montana-AL, Nebraska-02, Nevada-03,
Nevada-04, New Hampshire-01, New Hampshire-02, New Jersey-02, New Jersey-03, New Mexico-02,
New York-01, New York-11, New York-18, New York-19, New York-21, New York-23, New York-24,
Ohio-06, Ohio-14, Pennsylvania-06, Pennsylvania-08, Texas-23, Virginia-02, Virginia-10, West Virginia02, West Virginia-03 and Wisconsin-06.